Author Topic: Climate Doom  (Read 13669 times)

K-Dog

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #30 on: May 02, 2021, 11:06:27 pm »
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I've got a nice 20 year old Chrysler sitting outside, it hadn't been running for a month, and I finally got the intake torn apart and it back together and running. Unfortunately, I seem to be the only one in the family interested in driving a clunker.

I find with the car only running once every ten days or so it is a lot harder to keep clean.  The wheels stay free of brake dust but driving does not blow pollen and dust away.  If I don't keep it clean it can get crusty fast.

Mine managed to collect a busted windshield during the last big freeze. Same freeze took out the last of what the battery had. Tried to get the battery back to life, failed, slow leak took out the driver side front, presto, POS clogging up the driveway. A month or more later I finally got around to removing the intake to get at the battery and replace it, put it all back together, back to the tire shop to find the leak, presto, perfectly functional car with a busted windshield. Everyone refuses to drive it. No bluetooth, plus its a stick. Rain keeps it generally clean.
 

I too have a POS clogging my driveway.  Not the one I drive.  That one I might wax tomorrow.

K-Dog

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #31 on: May 02, 2021, 11:17:14 pm »
Spoiler (hover to show)

200 watts hr is the consumption number.

No, Watt-Hr is a unit of measurement.

I was going to be a smart ass and say in his day Lance Armstrong could put out 4 times that much, and that is NO DOPE.

Then I realized that unless it is explained in a physics course (which I have had) confusion could be legitimate.  The guy who wrote this says it fine.

Quote
As you may have noticed, we use Watt Hours to explain the capacity of most of our products. For many of us, a Watt Hour isn’t something all that familiar. So, here’s a brief explanation of what it is.

A Watt Hour is a unit of measurement for power over a period of time (an hour), or in our case, a way of measuring capacity. One Watt hour is equal to one Watt of average power flow over an hour. One Watt over four hours would be four Watt Hours of power. As an example, a 100 Watt light bulb on a 400 Watt Hour battery (like the Yeti 400) would last, on paper, 4 hours.

A Watt, the measure of power, is usually calculated using this equation: Watts = Volts x Amps. To explain a little further, we will use a plumbing analogy. If we have a water pipe; Volts would be a measure of the water pressure (force) in the pipe, Amps would be a measure of the current or flow through the pipe. A Watt would be the measure of of what you can do with that water, like turning a water wheel. So, how do we determine Watt hours?

Watt Hours are calculated using a similar equation when dealing with batteries. An example of this would be that the Yeti 400 contains a 33 Amp Hour battery operating at 12 Volts. 12 Volts x 33 Amp Hours = 396 Watt Hours or roughly 400 Wh. Not only are Watt Hours a good unit of measurement for capacity, but it is also pretty universal when finding out how many times one of our GZ products will recharge something with it’s own battery in it (like a phone, tablet, or laptop). The Equation to find the Watt Hours of a battery gives us a universal measurement despite batteries on the market varying greatly in operating voltage and mAh.

Battery capacity or power used.  Both are measured in watt-hours.

If you drive your Tesla at one kilometer per hour you would be correct.  Walking is three times as fast.  Ants do 1 km an hour.  Interestingly the closest Starbucks to me is a mile away and 350 feet lower in altitude.  An electric driving at 15 miles or less an hour might actually deliver more power to the battery than was used getting there.  You'd have to go slow to recover enough power coming down the hill to make up for getting to the top of the hill from the house. 

That is not a good reason to get one.
« Last Edit: May 02, 2021, 11:35:26 pm by K-Dog »

Phil Potts

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #32 on: May 04, 2021, 01:39:53 pm »
Spoiler (hover to show)

I am driving this (the gas version, not the Diesel shown):

You can get them for $3,000 — $15,000.  Eddy has (or had) one too.  If you get a good one you have great value for the money.  I don't care what the mileage of it is (it is actually pretty good.  27 MPG on the freeway).  What matters is how much I drive it.  Two trips a week in a fuel efficient car to the same place farts more CO2 out than one trip to the same place no matter what else you drive.  Plan your driving to minimize miles driven.  Save some money.  If people really cared about fuel efficiency, saying how much fuel a car uses at idle stuck in traffic or uses up when a 'Karen' uses it to drive through Starbucks without turning off the engine while as she waits for cars in front to move would be on the white sticker when it was sold.  Idle consumption is as important as knowing what the mileage is where I live.



You know every car in that line has its engine running and you are NOT going to get through that line in 5 minutes.  Maybe they could have a car wash pull mechanism?  That would keep the engines off.  But I'm kidding.  No Diner would be in this line.  An average drive through at a fast food place I'll guess uses up fifty cents worth of fuel at todays prices unless there is no line.  With no line the odds of someone being smart enough to turn the engine off at the window is increased.  The answer is not to drive an electric.  The answer is cook at home and make sure everyone else does too.  Nobody likes the second part of that statement.  I don't.



As things are  Diners would find another way to get our coffee fix.  If I could find a local boiled tree bark I liked as much that would be great.



The world will not and cannot conserve itself to salvation.  The general public has been propagandized with this idea because that is where capitalism wants things to go.  It keeps the existing arrangement going the longest.

* Changing our ways is not in the equation but that is the only thing that could work. 

The equation:



Having 'Woman' in the equation is only humor, but a healthy guy will drive fifty miles to get laid.  100 miles round trip.

There's a problem with quoting the post u want, but getting KD s post the 1st time

John of Wallan

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #33 on: May 04, 2021, 01:49:23 pm »
The next transport revolution will be back to horse and cart.

The rest is just a sideshow on the way to the final solution, like steam cars 120 years ago, wood gas burners during WW2 fuel shortages, nuclear cars and gas turbine cars in the 60's, the hydrogen "miracle" of the last 40 years and EV's now.
They all actually work from an engineering standpoint, but don't make economic or practical sense and cant be scaled to meet the transport needs of society.

Before anyone tells me horse and cart cant be scaled to meet the needs of modern society, I will suggest modern society will be very different in 20 years, if we make it. I am expecting a lot wont.

I once predicted the future will be more like "Little house on the prairie" than "Mad max". Now I am not so sure.

At least you can eat a horse if you get desperate. Not sure I want to go the long pig option.

JOW

Phil Potts

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #34 on: May 04, 2021, 02:19:52 pm »

I'm betting the average American doesn't even equate sitting in a Starbucks line with energy issues. Based on the consumer response to the energy crisis of the 1970's though, they can be made to understand one. The price pay they pay to fill their tank, or if there happens to be any fuel to buy.

Which is why the era of bigger is better and land yachts like my 77 Chrslyer hemi (cousin to the Bluesmobile 74 Dodge Polara) went the way of the dinosaur.

I figured it might also have had something to do with taking your life in your hands in these behemoths last time I took it out. All excited after getting it out andready on Sunday to hit the road before 5 for about a 6am start. In the dark, heavy fog and the wipers and demister are hardly helping. It was ok once I got onto the main highway, but on a minor single lane winding highway, not so much. Pizza cutter tyres, wipers and demister not helping much, log trucks all coming from the other way while you can barely see where you're going and keep it both on your side of the road without going off the road.. easy to end up upside down.

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« Last Edit: May 04, 2021, 02:23:04 pm by Phil Potts »

John of Wallan

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #35 on: May 04, 2021, 02:46:08 pm »
I had one of these: 1980 Chrysler Regal with a 265 Hemi. (Last year they were built in Oz) Went well for a 6, but drank like a road train.
Drove from Melbourne to Cairns in 1991 at 160km/h all the way (100mph Merikan). No speed cameras back then. Just about broke me in fuel cost.
Handling was always exciting. Torsion bar front end.

This was obsolete before they even sold them.

If you drive a car like this very small distances every year fuel use is not an issue. Carbon footprint from manufacture is being spread over more years so actually is better than a new EV you change every 5 years based on age and resale not distance travelled like most do.. These have a horrendous manufacturing carbon footprint. Only make sense if you drive longer distances a year and actually wear it out!

Like with all efficiency gains, it only increases usage not decreases usage. Stop subsidising fossil fuels. True manufacturing and running costs will then  be self correcting. People will walk more.

Everyone prefers virtue signaling rather than green wash reality.

JOW
 

K-Dog

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #36 on: May 04, 2021, 07:36:42 pm »
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Like with all efficiency gains, it only increases usage not decreases usage. Stop subsidizing fossil fuels. True manufacturing and running costs will then  be self correcting. People will walk more.

A carbon price is the single most powerful tool available to reduce America’s carbon pollution.
Net Zero by 2050

https://citizensclimatelobby.org/price-on-carbon/

A strong, economy-wide price on carbon could reduce America’s carbon pollution by 50% by 2030, putting us on track to reach net zero by 2050. Learn more from recent carbon pricing studies.

A carbon tax becomes affordable for ordinary Americans people when the money collected from fossil fuel companies is given as a dividend, or “carbon cash back” payment, to every American person to spend with no restrictions. This protects low-and-middle-income Americans people who otherwise might not be able to afford the transition.



Carbon Dividends are money in your pocket.

« Last Edit: May 04, 2021, 07:45:19 pm by K-Dog »

John of Wallan

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #37 on: May 05, 2021, 01:07:28 am »
Bolox.
Crap.
Rubbish.
Rhubarb.
Another boondogle so someone can make money while delaying actually solving the issue.

A carbon price will not work.
It just forces a transition away from fossil fuels to something else with more unknown consequences.
Thalidimide, DDT, CFC's , PCBs, asbestos all have useful characteristics, and initially un-forseen downsides...

Every EV has a huge carbon footprint to manufacture and more complex systems and technology. We need to de-industrialise not re-industrialise to something new.

We need less people too. I dont want it, but we need it. It will happen of its own accord shortly. We are in population overshoot measured by so many metrics: Desertification, over fishing, salinnation, loss of topsoil, peak oil, peak water, deforestation, peak helium, increased reliance on rare earth minerals, loss of biodiversity, peak phospherous.... Thats just what I can remember.

Perhaps we need organic self replicating transport systems. Think replicants in blade runner.
I know: Horses!
They run on grass. Thats carbon neutral.

We have to stop thinking we can find a technical solution. Technology is the driver of our problems not the solution. Technology allowed us to go into overshoot. Stupidity keeps us here for now.

JOW (The new ludite!)

RE

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #38 on: May 05, 2021, 01:53:37 am »

I once predicted the future will be more like "Little house on the prairie" than "Mad max". Now I am not so sure.


I'll stick with 10,000 BC.  What goes around, comes around.



We'll have to wait a while for anything as big as a mammoth to re-evolve though.  We'll be chasing down rats for quite some time to come.



RE

Digwe Must

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #39 on: May 06, 2021, 01:47:01 pm »
I've been following this conversation with interest. You all have made good points.  I hope no one minds my chipping in.

Of course, the discussion has a bit of trying to bail-the-Titanic-with-a-teacup atmosphere about it.  Realistically, it can't be serious and be otherwise.  Time is short.

For context, we also drive old vehicles.  A 1998 F-150, and a 2002 Subaru are in the driveway and a 2003 jeep sits parked under a Ponderosa pine.  The jeep will be leaving soon, I haven't driven it in months.  Besides the already discussed points about embedded energy costs in new vehicles, it is much cheaper - at least in this state - to insure and license older vehicles.

We are, however, getting a new tractor.  A 4 wheel drive 25HP.  At 70 years old I simply can't keep up with all the work here without a machine.  We still have much thinning and other work to do in the woods.  I have a portable sawmill and the tractor will aid me in skidding logs and getting them on the carriage, also there are a couple of hundred slash piles to be burned and a mile of fencing to be run.  The piles that were done with a large commercial machine have too much dirt in them to easily make biochar.  With a grapple on the loader I can basically shake the dirt out and make a few tons of char.  Moving hay and 1ton totes of grain will, of course, be less wear and tear on the old fart (me).  I need to build a shop and an addition on the barn and the tractor will be handy setting posts and beams. And the list goes on.

As handy as it will be, the tractor is a fossil fuel burning machine that required a lot of energy to manufacture and ship here.  It has a heavy environmental cost to it.  The only way I can ethically justify the purchase is by estimating the environmental benefits of our using the machine to enrich the health of the forest and soil.  Do these benefits outweigh the negative environmental impacts?  Obviously we've decided they do.  A gallon of gas (or diesel ) burned is still in the air no matter the reason.  But, I would like to think that forest rehabilitation is a tad better use than idling while in line at Starbucks.

Part of the motivation to get a tractor comes from the loss of Hercules the ox last month.  A gentle giant.  I could get a couple of calves and train them up - but it will take two years to get meaningful work out of them.  I'm too damn old to wait - but if we were to get an intern with an interest in draft animals I'd do it in a heartbeat.  The future will be animal powered for those of us not in the elite or the military.  The tractor is certainly more versatile than a draft animal - but in a pinch the draft animal is easier to feed.

Most of the Northwestern US has hydro power feeding the grid.  So, charging an electric vehicle is less problematic in this region than in coal country.  However, the environmental costs of the lithium extraction are devastating.  For that matter, the rare earths used in wind generators also have a dirty extraction and manufacturing process.  I agree that techno-fixes that allow the continuation of BAU are .... unlikely at best.

All of us here can have the best of intentions and make our decisions based on what we think is best for the planet and yet be completely nullified by a few private jet flights to the Bahamas.  I knew a pilot who actually flew a very wealthy divorced couple's dogs back and forth from Texas to California a couple of times a year for "visitation".  No one else on the plane. True story.

The little town of Usk, Washington has a plant that used to manufacture newsprint. The plant was owned by a large lumber corporation and because of a drop in demand and price for newsprint, went bankrupt. There were three bidders for the plant.  One bidder was the Kalispell Tribe of Indians.  They wanted to operate the plant.  The tribe can make investments like this because they have excellent funding from their casino and don't have to be worried about immediate profit. They are trying to provide good employment for the tribal members and a market for tribal timber resources. The plant is powered by an adjacent dam on the Pend O'reille River. They also burn the manufacturing waste to generate power.

The tribe was outbid by a California corporation.  They just kept throwing money at it. At first the new owners said they were going to operate the portion of the plant used to manufacture paper used in corrugated cardboard.  The next day (April 29) it was disclosed that they would operate the plant but use all the excess power to mine for bitcoin.  We hear now from the manager of a local mill that, in fact, the primary business of the new mill will be crypto currency mining. They are trying to find a source for mega loads of wood chips to generate more power.  Of course, that will employ far fewer people than a paper mill and most of the higher paid positions will be for workers brought in from out of the area.

Sure, if they are going to use electricity for this "industry",  this is cleaner than coal.  That is the only good thing I can say about it.  To me this is just another sign of frenzy before collapse.

I must go shovel manure.  They say eventually a man finds the work he's suited for. 

It's very dry and warm here.   Unseasonable would be an understatement. Pray for rain.









John of Wallan

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #41 on: May 09, 2021, 06:27:56 pm »
This guys lays out a good timeline for whats coming and why.
Few seem to realise that no food means no humans... Most think 7/11 will be open and fully stocked for our convenience; its always been that way!
I dont agree 100% with his conspiracy theories about ánything being planned...
We are going into chaotic times with no one in power doing much planning other than trying to get past next election cycle.

Despite all the propaganda about if we change our ways we can save the planet, and continue on with our current lifestyles, its looking more and more like too little too late.



Do what you can on a local level.
Glabally things will work themselves out chaotically.

JOW

John of Wallan

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #42 on: May 09, 2021, 06:30:32 pm »
This guys lays out a good timeline for whats coming and why.
Few seem to realise that no food means no humans... Most think 7/11 will be open and fully stocked for our convenience; its always been that way!
I dont agree 100% with his conspiracy theories about ánything being planned...
We are going into chaotic times with no one in power doing much planning other than trying to get past next election cycle.

Despite all the propaganda about if we change our ways we can save the planet, and continue on with our current lifestyles, its looking more and more like too little too late.



Do what you can on a local level.
Glabally things will work themselves out chaotically.

JOW

When I said this guy I meant the link to the ice age farmer in previous post. Not Guy M.
He is unfortunately more and more accurately predicting what coming...

JOW

JOW

Digwe Must

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #43 on: May 10, 2021, 08:22:22 am »
JOW
Guy M and the Ice Age Farmer guy are on opposite sides of the climate change issue.

About 15 years ago Guy M was saying that the methane clathrate problem gave us five years as a species at best.  The methane was supposed to emit into the atmosphere at such a rate as to cause massive explosions and flares.  I've seen other climate scientists expose the flaws in his work.  Guy M is a very bright man with tunnel vision.  He then had the personal crisis associated with his work "counseling" women with NTHE anxiety.  This gave the folks questioning his conclusions ammunition to assail his credibility.

Up until 2 years ago the Ice Age Farmer guy was claiming we were entering the grand solar minimum NOW.  Solar activity was going to continue to drop and we would be entering the next ice age now.  Since then the calculations and observations he used have been clarified.  Most observers believe we will be seeing the GSM in 2030 or the next solar cycle 11 years later.  The IAF guy claims that anthropogenic climate change is a hoax perpetrated by the shadow elites.

Can they both be right? 

As Yogi Berra is reputed to have noted, predictions are hard - especially about the future.

K-Dog

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #44 on: May 10, 2021, 11:40:16 am »
Spoiler (hover to show)

My spoiler tags keep you from having to look at Guy McPherson again if you don't want to.

I can express my feelings with a very simple statement:

'Guy Mcpherson does not know **** about feedback theory.'

And I know what time it is twice a day.

 I do not find someone who exploits irrational fears in the name of science to make his money amusing.  I realize in the world of doom I am an outlier since I do not feel the need to kiss Guy's ass just because he calls himself a climate scientist and is partial to white suits.



The white suit is a dead giveaway when you think about it.  An obvious prop.  McPherson is Dinner Theater.

Engineers, particularly Electrical Engineers have to understand how feedback works.  White suit wearing 'professors' I suspect do not do as much math as engineers do.  As the years roll by a chasm in abilities widens.  You don't use it you lose it don't you know.

I find Guy's angst at people in mainstream media referring to tipping points as being far in the future amusing.  If Guy had not misrepresented tipping points as an event and instead as part of the naturally occurring interlocked processes they are, mainstream media would not have exploited his exploit.  Instead Guy makes facts something to argue about, and in this world white suits have no advantage.

The Earth is a complicated mix of multiple feedback systems.  All feedback loops have to be identified and evaluated quantitatively to know what the future holds.  Cherry picking data has no place.

Guy makes people passive.  He is a thought stopper.



I doubt the book has a single mention of 'tipping point'.  Engineers refer to a state as being unstable or a system as bi-stable.  Then they work out the math to describe how a physical system will respond to inputs over time.  Accuracy of prediction and not shock value is the criteria for success.  Wo-wo panic is not involved.  An engineer generally will want to know exactly what will happen as the world collapses and the gas tank in the national car runs dry.  Wild speculation is appropriate for stories and for exploring possibilities.  But panic will solve nothing.




« Last Edit: May 10, 2021, 12:08:32 pm by K-Dog »