Author Topic: Climate Doom  (Read 13659 times)

John of Wallan

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Re: Climate Doom: Happy new year
« Reply #525 on: January 03, 2023, 01:31:51 pm »
2023; might just be the year it all comes together. An el-nino event will be the cherry on top.
Last 4 years have seen fires, plagues and floods down here.
Whats could possibly come next?
I am stocking up on cigars and cogbac. Wont help the situation, but at least I can be comfortable.

JOW

Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

Text:
TUESDAY, JANUARY 3, 2023
A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon
A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold, as the already dire situation threatens to turn catastrophic due to the combined impact of a number of developments and feedbacks.
The upcoming El Niño

Temperatures are currently suppressed as we're in the depth of a persistent La Niña event. It is rare for a La Niña event to last as long as the current one does, as illustrated by the NASA image below and discussed in this NASA post. 

The above image also indicates that a strong El Niño has become more common over the years. The above image was created using data up to September 2022. La Niña has since continued, as illustrated by the NOAA image on the right. NOAA adds that the dashed black line indicates that La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023.

Chances are that we'll move into the next El Niño in the course of 2023. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as illustrated by the image below.

[ image adapted from NOAA, from earlier post ]
Sunspots

The upcoming El Niño looks set to coincide with a high number of sunspots. The number of sunspots is forecast to reach a peak in July 2025 and recent numbers are higher than expected, as illustrated by the image on the right, from NOAA.
 
An analysis in an earlier post concludes that the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C. Recent numbers of sunspots have been high. This confirms the study mentioned in the earlier post that warns that the peak of this cycle could rival the top few since records began, which would further increase the difference.

Joint impact of El Niño and sunspots

In conclusion, the joint impact of a strong El Niño and high sunspots could make a difference of more than 0.65°C. This rise could trigger further developments and feedbacks that altogether could cause a temperature rise from pre-industrial of as much as 18.44°C by 2026.

Further developments and feedbacks

A combination of further developments and feedbacks could cause a huge temperature rise. An example of this is the decline of the cryosphere, i.e. the global snow and ice cover.

Antarctic sea ice extent is currently at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image on the right. Antarctic sea ice extent reached a record low on February 25, 2022, and Antarctic sea ice extent looks set to get even lower this year.

Global sea ice extent is also at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, which shows that global sea ice extent was 4.6 million km² on January 2, 2023.

The image below is from tropicaltidbits.com and shows a forecast for September 2023 of the 2-meter temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius and based on 1984-2009 model climatology. The anomalies are forecast to be very high for the Arctic Ocean, as well as for the Southern Ocean around Antarctica, which spells bad news for sea ice at both hemispheres.

Loss of sea ice results in loss of albedo and loss of the latent heat buffer that - when present - consumes ocean heat as the sea ice melts. These combined losses could result in a large additional temperature rise, while there are further contributors to the temperature rise, such as thawing of terrestrial permafrost and associated changes such as deformation of the Jet Stream and additional ocean heat moving into the Arctic from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.

There are many further developments and feedbacks that could additionally speed up the temperature rise, such as the (currently accelerating) rise of greenhouse gas emissions, falling away of the aerosol masking effect, more biomass being burned for energy and an increase in forest and waste fires.

As said, these developments and feedbacks could jointly cause a temperature rise from pre-industrial of as much as 18.44°C by 2026, as discussed at the Extinction page. Keep in mind that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post and underpinned by this post.

The situation is dire and threatens to turn catastrophic soon. The right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.

Links
• NASA - La Niña Times Three
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150691/la-nina-times-three
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html
• Cataclysmic Alignment
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html
• NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Monthly Global Climate Report for October 2022, retrieved November 16, 2022
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/2022010/supplemental/page-4
• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html
• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html
• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html
• Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol - by Peter Manhausen et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05122-0
• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
• When will we die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html
• When will humans go extinct?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/when-will-humans-go-extinct.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html

John of Wallan

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Hmm.
Nothing I say will change much...
Already 1.2 degrees above baseline when 0.5 degrees was probably the real tipping point. Everything else has just been political compromises to pander to interest groups.
 ::)
JOW

Link:
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/the-past-eight-years-were-the-hottest-on-record-despite-la-nina-20230112-p5cc5k.html

Text:
The past eight years were the hottest on record, despite La Nina
Nick O'Malley
By Nick O'Malley
January 12, 2023 — 4.19pm

The past eight years have been the warmest on record, despite the cooling effect of three consecutive La Nina weather patterns, while extreme weather caused disasters across the world in 2022, according to new analysis by the World Meteorological Organisation.

The warmest eight years have all been since 2015, with 2016, 2019 and 2020 constituting the top three, says the WMO report. An exceptionally strong El Nino event occurred in 2016, which contributed to record global temperatures.

An island north of Athens on fire in 2021, as Greece grappled with its worst heatwave in decades.Credit:AP

Though temperature changes between years are often small, since the 1980s every decade has been hotter than the one before it, as predicted by climate change modelling.

A report published this week by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, which uses some of the same data sets and provides climate information to the European Union, shows the annual average temperature was 0.3 degrees above the period of 1991-2020, which equates to approximately 1.2 degrees higher than the period 1850-1900, the baseline normally referred to as the pre-industrial era.

This makes 2022 the eighth year in a row with temperatures more than 1 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial level, says the report.

UK swelters through hottest day ever recorded

The UK has sweltered through its hottest day ever recorded, with temperatures pushing past 40C.

“2022 was yet another year of climate extremes across Europe and globally,” Samantha Burgess, the deputy head of the climate change service, said in a statement.

“These events highlight that we are already experiencing the devastating consequences of our warming world,” she said.

WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas said extreme weather events last year “claimed far too many lives and livelihoods, and undermined health, food, energy and water security and infrastructure.

“Large areas of Pakistan were flooded, with major economic losses and human casualties. Record-breaking heatwaves have been observed in China, Europe, North and South America. The long-lasting drought in the Horn of Africa threatens a humanitarian catastrophe.”

The worlds’ oceans were also the hottest-ever in 2022, beating previous records set in 2021, 2020 and 2019, according to new research published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

As excess heat in the atmosphere is absorbed by oceans, these temperatures are considered a key climate change indicator.

“The state of our oceans can measure the world’s health, and judging by the updated oceanic observations … we need a doctor,” said the study’s authors in a statement.

They found that the amount of heat added to the oceans in 2022 is equivalent to 100 times the total global electricity generation last year.

Nick O'Malley is National Environment and Climate Editor for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. He is also a senior writer and a former US correspondent.Connect via email.

K-Dog

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Hmm.
Nothing I say will change much...
Already 1.2 degrees above baseline when 0.5 degrees was probably the real tipping point. Everything else has just been political compromises to pander to interest groups.
 ::)
JOW


Nothing is going to change the outcome.  CO2 concentration accelerates.  The question is, will humans be gone before forests return to Greenland.



On my website I am writing a novelette.  Tell me what you think.  Unlike doom your suggestions may affect the outcome.

John of Wallan

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Re: Climate Doom: Radio Eco-shock
« Reply #528 on: January 14, 2023, 09:16:40 pm »
Here is a link to "Radio Eco-shock".
Often good podcasts on all things environmental.... This episode I found quite interesting.

I often listen to them on long drives in between Roger Water, Cream, Pink Floyd, Stones, Stepenwolf, The Who, Led Zep and Deep Purple tracks.. Not a huge Jeff Beck fan, but surprising how often he played on tracks I listen to, and he was definately one of the most talented guitarists I have heard. (In case you you were in a mine shaft all week: he died a couple of days ago)

Anyway, I digress...

Some Text:
Dark Science: Gone Glaciers and Sudden Warming
Posted on January 11, 2023, by Radio Ecoshock
Half the world’s glaciers will disappear within a single lifetime. Breaking science with Dr. David Rounce. Netherlands researcher Leon Simons: geoengineering has been cooling the planet for decades. That is over now. Co-author of the new bombshell from James Hansen tackles more warming revealed. Hansen predicts sea level rise much higher than thought and up to 10 degrees C hotter. If true, catastrophe is on the near horizon.
 
Link:
https://www.ecoshock.org/2023/01/dark-science-gone-glaciers-and-sudden-warming.html

John of Wallan

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #529 on: January 29, 2023, 09:41:21 pm »
Really weird weather here. Still getting flooding on the driest continent on Earth.
Technically antarctica has less available fresh water as all theirs is in the form of ice... For all the pedants out there...
Been good for my trees, which I have pretty welll gone through summer so far without watering. Only 2 drowned. Usually they die in summer from lack of water in a hot spell. Have planted another english Willow in a boggy spot, which is going great. (Good for gunpowder manufacture no less!)
Still talk of an El-nio event developing later this year. That will be the test of how well we think we have prepared. I might put in another tank over winter.

I dont argue with anyone over whether climate change is real or not any more. I just prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

JOW


link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/

Text:

SUNDAY, JANUARY 29, 2023
The global climate change suicide pact
 by Andrew Glikson

Despite of deceptively-claimed mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in parts of the world, ongoing burning of domestic and exported fossil fuels world-wide continues to change the composition of the atmosphere, enriching it in greenhouse gases by yet another ~2 ppm CO₂ (2022: 418.95 ppm; CH₄: 1915 ppb; N₂0: 337 ppb), reaching levels commensurate with those of the Miocene (23.03 to 5.333 Ma) at rise rates exceeding any in the geological record of the last 66 million years (Glikson, 2020) (Figure 1).

Figure 1. Global 1880-2021 annual average temperatures (adapted by UCAR from ClimateCentral).

Since 1880 mean global temperatures rose at a rate of 0.08°C per decade, from 1981 by 0.18°C per decade and more when emitted aerosols are accounted for (Hansen et al., in Berwyn, 2022). According to Will Steffen, Australia’s leading climate scientist “there was already a chance we have triggered a global tipping cascade that would take us to a less habitable Hothouse Earth climate, regardless of whether we reduced emissions” (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Global mean temperature profile since 200 AD projected to beyond 2000 AD (Will Steffen)

Over a brief span of less than two centuries (Figure 1) anthropogenic reversal of the carbon cycle induced the emission of some 1.5 10¹² tonnes of CO₂ and an increased release of 150% more CH₄ from the crust, accumulated in sediments for hundreds of million years through photosynthesis and calcification, as well as from permafrost and oceans. Permeation of the atmosphere and the hydrosphere with the toxic residues of ancient plants and organisms, poisoning the biosphere, is leading to the Sixth mass extinction of species in the history of nature.

Following failed attempts to deny climate science, vested business and political interests are proceeding, with the support of many governments, to mine coal, sink oil wells and frack hydrocarbon gas, regardless of the consequences in term of global heating, sea level rise, inundation of islands and coastal zones, collapse of the permafrost, heat waves, floods, ocean acidification, migration of climate zones and dissemination of plastic particles, rendering the future of much of the biosphere uninhabitable.

Figure 3. Europe: Maximum extreme temperatures, July 17-23, 2002.

The progression of global warming is unlikely to be linear as the flow of cold ice melt water from Greenland and Antarctica glaciers would cool parts of the ocean and in part the continents (Figure 4), leading toward a stadial-type phenomenon, the classic case of which is symbolized by the Younger dryas cool period 12,900 to 11,700 years ago.

Figure 4. Projected transient stadial cooling events (Hansen et al., 2016)

National and international legal systems appear unable to restrict the saturation of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, as governments preside over the worst calamity in natural history since the demise of the dinosaurs. Facing heatwaves (Figure 3), fires, floods and sea level rise, those responsible may in part remain oblivious to the magnitude of the consequences, waking up when it is too late.

There was a time when leaders fell on their sword when defeated in battle or lose their core beliefs, nowadays most not even resign their privileged positions to resist the existential danger posed to advanced life, including human civilization, preoccupied as nations are with preparations for nuclear wars.

It is long past time to declare a global climate and nuclear emergency.

Andrew Glikson
A/Prof. Andrew Glikson

Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia

Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679

FarmGirl

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #530 on: January 31, 2023, 07:08:34 pm »
Following failed attempts to deny climate science, vested business and political interests are proceeding, with the support of many governments, to mine coal, sink oil wells and frack hydrocarbon gas, regardless of the consequences in term of global heating, sea level rise, inundation of islands and coastal zones, collapse of the permafrost, heat waves, floods, ocean acidification, migration of climate zones and dissemination of plastic particles, rendering the future of much of the biosphere uninhabitable.

Beyond an interesting run on sentence, vested business and political interests exist for one reason...the rapacious and all devouring human beast that can't stop, won't stop, refuses to stop....and those interests keep the supply coming. Stop consuming, stop wanting more, stop making babies...what sort of perspective thinks that the drug addicts problems are only caused by the dealers?  The one that is looking for someone else to blame, because they dare not look in the mirror and admit the truth?

We should all enjoy the time we are given as best we can, because none of us gets out of here alive, the end itself is undoubtedly a thought more traumatic than the why. And when the few left posting here expire (sooner rather than later as their are no youngsters around), our obituaries will not read "killed by climate change". It will be the normal stuff, heart attacks and strokes and accidents, maybe some bad weather, but even if killed by a tornado, does it matter that it is an F2 instead of an F1 because of our slowly warming world? Certainly not to the deceased.

Oh what a tangled web we weave, when we first practice to deceive. Ourselves. Silly monkeys we are.

RE

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At least I saw Venice when the canals were full of sewage.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/02/22/dry-venice-canals-italian-drought/11321656002/

'Never-ending drought emergency': Italy's iconic Venice canals have dried up

RE

RE

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Hydro power also not environmentally sound.  We are running out of viable renewable replacements for FFs.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/01/europe/greta-thunberg-wind-farm-norway-sami-climate-intl/index.html

RE

K-Dog

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #533 on: March 25, 2023, 03:43:21 pm »
1. EUROPE HIT BY WORST DROUGHT IN 500 YEARS



The landscape around Italy's river Po dried out during the summer of 2022.  The summer of 2022 was like no other across swaths of western and central Europe. The proverbially rainy England didn't see a drop of rain in weeks.

2. PAKISTAN SEES WORST FLOODS IN HISTORY



While water levels in European rivers were hitting record lows, the mountainous Pakistan in southwestern Asia struggled with the exact opposite problem. From June to October 2022, vast areas of the country were submerged in flood waters.

3. HURRICANE IAN BATTERS FLORIDA AND FIONA MAKES LANDFALL IN CANADA



Hurricane Ian seen from the International Space Station.  The Atlantic hurricane season of 2022 started late. For the first time in 25 years, not a single named tropical storm emerged above the Atlantic Ocean in the month of August.

4. FREDDY, THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL STORM EVER, PUMMELS WEST AFRICA TWICE



Cyclone Freddy above Madagascar.  Tropical storm Freddy(opens in new tab) received much less media attention than Ian and Fiona when it rampaged western Africa in February and March 2023. From a weather disaster perspective, however, Freddy was a storm of a kind never seen before.

5. ANTARCTIC SEA ICE HITS RECORD LOW



Seasonal variations in the extent of Antarctic sea ice. Bad news arrived in February from scientists monitoring the Antarctic ice cap. The extent of floating sea ice surrounding the frosty continent shrank to a record low as the southern summer peaked, to only 66% of the levels usually present at this time of the year.

FarmGirl

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Re: Climate Doom
« Reply #534 on: March 26, 2023, 08:32:57 am »

5. ANTARCTIC SEA ICE HITS RECORD LOW



Seasonal variations in the extent of Antarctic sea ice. Bad news arrived in February from scientists monitoring the Antarctic ice cap. The extent of floating sea ice surrounding the frosty continent shrank to a record low as the southern summer peaked, to only 66% of the levels usually present at this time of the year.

That is a cool graphic. I've seen one for the Arctic as well, both are them are far more telling I believe than the endless discussions and whatnot. There is ice. Then there isn't. Would someone care to explain why, other than...you know...stuff is warmer now?

RE

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A bizzy year beginning in Tornado Alley.  So far about double the seasonal average.

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/mar/31/widespread-damage-reported-across-central-arkansas-on-friday/

Power outages in tens of thousands, widespread damage reported from Arkansas tornado

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K-Dog

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A bizzy year beginning in Tornado Alley.  So far about double the seasonal average.

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/mar/31/widespread-damage-reported-across-central-arkansas-on-friday/

Power outages in tens of thousands, widespread damage reported from Arkansas tornado

RE

Someone will say that tornadoes have been around forever and climate change has nothing to do with, an increased stochastic propensity.  ****.

RE

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A bizzy year beginning in Tornado Alley.  So far about double the seasonal average.

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/mar/31/widespread-damage-reported-across-central-arkansas-on-friday/

Power outages in tens of thousands, widespread damage reported from Arkansas tornado

RE

Someone will say that tornadoes have been around forever and climate change has nothing to do with, an increased stochastic propensity.  ****.

Also. it's not collapse because 25% of the population didn't die and they're going to rebuild the town.

RE

FarmGirl

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A bizzy year beginning in Tornado Alley.  So far about double the seasonal average.

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/mar/31/widespread-damage-reported-across-central-arkansas-on-friday/

Power outages in tens of thousands, widespread damage reported from Arkansas tornado

RE

Someone will say that tornadoes have been around forever and climate change has nothing to do with, an increased stochastic propensity.  ****.

How quaint, A) climate change deniers are still a thing, and B) has anyone ever claimed that tornadoes aren't a thing? As long as there was an atmosphere around creating thunderstorms anyway. If any show up, just ask them how without climate change we would ever have gotten the wonderful country of Canada, there weren't any Great Lakes to swim in but maybe some great ice skating was available?, there couldn't be any Swedish Bikini Team because there would be no Sweden, and the Yucatan Penninsula almost touched Florida, which was once more than twice as wide as it is now! Mexicans could just swim to the US back then.