Author Topic: Geopolitics Errata.  (Read 4753 times)

RE

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Geopolitics Errata.
« on: October 08, 2021, 06:18:00 pm »
I am tired of the [blank]-exit terminology.  Let's call this a "Polockotomy"  lol.

Economically, the EU could give a **** about the Poles,  the country is not the economic and financial center the UK is (or was).  Geopolitically though, Poland provides a military buffer with Mother Russia.  If they exit the EU, who will they turn to for help?  You guessed it, Vlad the Impaler.  At least lining up with Vlad, the Poles might get enough NG to make it thru the winter.

Militarily, NATO cannot afford to lose Poland as a forward base for missiles.  The Pollocks know this and so they are holding the EU for ransom.  It will be an iteresting side show to watch.

Poland stokes fears of leaving EU in 'Polexit'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-58840076

RE

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K-Dog

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Re: Geopolitics Errata.
« Reply #1 on: October 08, 2021, 06:30:54 pm »


Pole Vault

Phil Potts

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Re: Geopolitics Errata.
« Reply #2 on: October 08, 2021, 10:57:08 pm »
They should practice invading Poland from both sides again. Ah lebenstraum
« Last Edit: October 08, 2021, 10:59:00 pm by Phil Potts »

Eddie

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Re: Geopolitics Errata.
« Reply #3 on: October 09, 2021, 10:41:04 am »
Poland is an emerging power. And pretty damn right-wing. Poland bears watching.

George Friedman, my favorite geopolitics prognosticator, thinks a war in Europe is inevitable. Just a matter of time.

RE

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Re: Geopolitics Errata.
« Reply #4 on: October 09, 2021, 02:34:24 pm »
Poland is an emerging power. And pretty damn right-wing. Poland bears watching.

George Friedman, my favorite geopolitics prognosticator, thinks a war in Europe is inevitable. Just a matter of time.

The EU is definitely a fragile federation, and it's hard to see how it can hold together in the face of the energy and immigration headwinds.  On the other hand, it's also hard to see how any kind of "hot war" can be won.  Everybody has Cruise Missiles that will easily wipe out tanks or large infantry divisions.  It doesn't even need to go nuclear.  Mother Russia wins a Cold War simply by turning off the gas pipelines.

I definitely can't see the Pollocks marching on Russia, Germany or France.  They would have to wait to be attacked first to get the FSoA to step in.

Warsaw is definitely low on my recommended list of Big Shities to live in.

RE

RE

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Re: Geopolitics Errata.
« Reply #5 on: October 16, 2021, 10:04:40 am »
Lunga vita Mussolini!

Tens of thousands demonstrate in Rome against neo-fascists
https://apnews.com/article/business-europe-rome-italy-49b05744b74f06230af52e7f829e1006

RE


Phil Potts

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Re: Geopolitics Errata.
« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2021, 12:47:07 pm »
Lunga vita Mussolini!

Tens of thousands demonstrate in Rome against neo-fascists
https://apnews.com/article/business-europe-rome-italy-49b05744b74f06230af52e7f829e1006

RE

More on this, also Neutral Switzerland:

« Last Edit: October 16, 2021, 12:51:14 pm by Phil Potts »

RE

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Re: Geopolitics Errata.
« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2021, 03:54:02 pm »
Lunga vita Mussolini!

Tens of thousands demonstrate in Rome against neo-fascists
https://apnews.com/article/business-europe-rome-italy-49b05744b74f06230af52e7f829e1006

RE

More on this, also Neutral Switzerland:



Well, you definitely cannot accuse the Swiss as being Trumpovetsky  Dopes, and they are coming in more from the Left than the Right here.  Globally speaking, both poles of the political spectrum are mainly pissed off at being FORCED by Da Goobermint

Because so many places on Earth (like Africa) are unlikely to get anywhere NEAR full vaccination and because airlines still fly and oil tankers and cargo ships still sail, the virus will still continue to move around and mutate, even with a 100% effective vaccine, which none of them are.  So, every time you get a new hotspot, you'll get a new set of lockdowns and restrictions.  It could bounce around like this for years.

Meanwhile, we remain short on waitresses, cooks and truckdrivers.

RE

RE

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Invasions
« Reply #8 on: October 23, 2021, 11:24:55 am »
Back in ancient times, Invasions of large armies happened quite regularly, as one society tried to conquer another, take their land and enslave the other population.  Nearly all invasions were land-based, few maritime invasions were succesful. The Muslim conquest of Spain across the Mediterranean would be one exception, but they eventually got pushed back to Africa.  In colonial times, the Spanish tried to invade England, but unfortunately most of the ships got sonk in a storm.

The last BIG invasios took place in WWII  The Nazis invaded all of continental Europe, quite successfully for a while.  The tactic was Speed & Surprize, the BLITZKRIEG.  However, they never were able to invade Britain, just a short hop across the English Channel.  Nor could they invade the Scandinavian countries across the North Sea.  They remained neutral for the duration of the war.  Nor could they invade Switzerland, mountains are no good for tank battles.  They tried and failed to invade Mother Russia, but it was too big and the weather too harsh.

The final invasion of WWII was a maritime one, D-Day.  It had to be carefully concealed for time and location, and even so was extremely costly.  The Brits never could have pulled it off by themselve, it took the Amerikan entrance into the war to pull it off.

Nowadays, maritime military invasions between large powers are impossible.  Neither the Ruskies or the Chines could invade the FSoA, nor could the FSoA invade them.  There can be no surprise, satellites would pick up the ships being loaded up before they ever left port.  Cruise Missiles would sink the ships before they got anywhere near enough to unload.  So fear of invasion as a rationale for a large military is a phantom threat.

Invasions still happen of course on the military level, of small countrries by larger ones.  The Ruskies tried to invade Afghanistan before we did, bothg attempts failed.  In antiquity, Alexander the Great tried to invade Afghanistan, he failed too.  It's where large armies go to die.  We tried to invade Vietnam and Iraq, those invasions failed also.  Military invasion is quite hopeless these days, but there other forms of invasion.

Economic invasion has been the primary method of taking control since the end of WWII by all the main powers.  The Chinese hold most of East Asia in thrall, the Ruskiess hold most of Easterb Europe and Central Asia and the FSoa holds Central and South America and Western Europe.  Africa is a perpetual battleground for all the major powers.

The other form of invasion moving in the other direction is migration, both legal and illegal.  This is slower than economic or military invasion, but nowadays much more effective.  It's changing the demographics of all the Western countries and Mother Russia too.  Not so much China, which until now has had plenty of its own people to do the scut work for the Elite.  Internal political problems and eventually revolutions will emerge from this.

I dout we will ever see direct military confrontation with the Ruskies or the Chinese.  Even the Illuminati know that the War Games scenario, Global Thermonuclear War cannot be won.  "The only solution is not to play".  So they continue to thrust and parry, trying to edge out an advantage here or there.  Meanwhile, inside their own borders, social dissolution proceeds apace.  The danger of war we all face comes from within, not from without.

The question this leaves us with is which of the 3 main powers will be FIRST to descend into anarchy and Civil War?  Opinions welcome.

Phil Potts

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Re: Geopolitics Errata.
« Reply #9 on: October 23, 2021, 11:42:26 pm »
I don't think a world war is out of the question and hopefully not nuke. It can be a last ditch effort to save the dollar. I expect us to lose though, the pentagrams computer wargaming has not won against either china alone or Russia alone, so definitely not against both at once. The reason is as you mentioned, it's a long distance invasion.

Either one of Russia and China would be mad to sit it out while the other fought us and then pbe next in line. The ever closer ties with military cooperation between those countries make it even more unlikely they would not act as one. All the bluster we have ignores that and plans to fight china alone, which is the best way to lose any fight, not facing reality.

 To borrow a trumpism, 'rocket man' should manage to hit Japan. He's likely to be miles off target, but it's highly populated enough to still do a lot of damage. If the Himalayas become even slightly radioactive with nukes by china, India and Pakistan, billions of people relying on the snow melt in their rivers will be very sick. Israel and Iran also likely to tee off as well as numerous other border and resource disputes.

The saying 'the generals are always still fighting the last war' or whatever it is, means the navy is now as obsolete as cavalry. Right now all the navy's are just used for threatening lower tech countries, stoking tensions between the major league and wasting untold amounts of oil. Russia and China have the hypersonics, we don't, so it's mostly our own ships going to be sunk making it hard to send more of anything from home, leaving only what bases surround the Eurasian continent to operate from and that is if they are not also effectively hit by missiles. Who is better at hacking the guidance systems of missiles and other communications will determine the outcome. I think Russia and China are a lot more determined, defending their homelands as well. The F-35 boondoggle among others is another disadvantage for us.

All that is based on a brief war where big missiles do a lot of damage very quickly and force a surrender. If it was to be like others in history that go for years, then available manpower and manufacturing capabilities (war of attrition) which determines who wins are really against us, especially when so many components are made in China. You need air superiority to hit their manufacturing, which is a long shot. This is because the MIC is profit driven above anything else.

I don't know of opposing factions ready for civil war in Russia or China. They're in a renaissance that would have a long way to go before naturally becoming weak. It's just our wishful thinking that china is on the verge of overthrowing the govt. They are mostly indifferent to govt while enjoying new found wealth, or proud nationalistic supporters. It's only available energy that is going to rain on that party. What gets consumed in shipping for their global trade would need to go back to sailing to carry on. How many decades it could continue as is, is a question for someone else.

 Putin has something like 90% support and a few years left as at least a figurehead. They have plenty of resources and quite used to sanctions, so are in good shape. Their biggest worry would be war taking out the energy extraction and transportation infrastructure and then trying to deal with -40 winter temps.

I'm not sure the US is divided geographically in a way that it was in the last civil war, although the political divide and hate is definitely sufficient. Democracy looks dysfunctional as a system of govt as a result. Great for distracting and dividing from incompetent leadership, but also allowing for totally incompetent and corrupt leadership as much as any tin pot dictator or banana republic ever had.
We are going ahead with a pol pot Khmer rouge or Stalinist purge of the untermenschen right now. Any states that can resist that will swell with new arrivals and they would all be of one mind in what they want from the state govt. What would happen after that, if the federal govt did not prevent it by making over riding laws and economic coercion cutting flow of funds is an open question. The federal govt would also need to enforce the over riding laws. The US is persuing a softer approach than other western countries pand I believe that is because of gun rights. State borders have not been closed at any time, religious exemptions are allowed with the sackings, and there is no being barred from bars, restaurants, gyms and other stores that I know of. If that progresses in some states and not others, migration will happen and then possible insurrection by some states.

Anarchy is preferred to tyranny for me, even if assets become worthless and lost. I see a lot more intervention than just natural causes of collapse happening. The ratcheting up of control over our lives is being done to keep control as the pressure on people gets worse.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2021, 12:17:59 am by Phil Potts »

RE

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Re: Geopolitics Errata.
« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2021, 05:24:00 am »
Fighting as a bloc, certainly together the Ruskies and Chinese have more firepower than the FSoA.  Any 2 of the 3 allied are more powerful than the one left alone.  It's still a war that cannot be won militarily, and all sides know this.

The potential does exist for large scale "terrorism", such as for instance as you mention poisonimg the water flowing down from the Himalayas.  Those actions though can always be blamed on 3rd party "rogue" states.  The North Koreans could be provoked to send missiles at Japan.  The Saudis could be provoked to bomb Iranian Oil fields. etc.  None of it makes any economic sense, and no action of this kind will save the monetary system.

As to the stability of the Russian and Chinese Goobermints, I don't think either is more stable than the FSoA.  Chinese stability won't last long with lights out, no heat and closed factories.  Vlad the Impaler may be popular, but he is popular with a rapidly dwindling population which is all that he polls to get those numbers.  I doubt he is near so popular as you move east and south out of Moscow.

Computer hacking is definitely a means for one of the Big 3 to destabilize the others, but I think all are capable of it and all already do it.  I think all are equally capable of it.  All have good Geek Squads. lol.  This is economic warfare, and it is ongoing.  So far though, nobody has launched a Hydrogen Bomb level computer virus because it would take down all 3 economies.  It is Mutually Assured Destruction on the economic level.

Projecting the eventual Civil War in the FSoA, it won't be as simple as the North-South divide of the 19th Century.  The conflict will be multi-polar, based of the 4 Rs. Region, Resources, Race & Religion. Back in Diner Days, I projected 8 Regions to form out of the crumbling FSoA & Canada.  Each region will have its own internal conflicts based on the other 3 variables.  In a word, it will be very messy.

Meanwhile, I did score today 2 more beef fillets at the low, low price of $12.99/lb!  :)

RE

K-Dog

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Re: Geopolitics Errata.
« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2021, 09:38:10 am »
Quote
The question this leaves us with is which of the 3 main powers will be FIRST to descend into anarchy and Civil War?  Opinions welcome.

Is this supposed to be a hard question?

Hint1:  The main power in question is currently in a pre-revolutionary state.  It's citizens are without compass and believe nonsense as belief even in the false is better than having no belief at all.  The brain abhors a vacuum.  For those who have a brain.  The brains of many citizens of this main power resemble hot-house vegetables of questionable nutrition.
« Last Edit: October 24, 2021, 10:03:44 am by K-Dog »

K-Dog

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Re: Geopolitics Errata.
« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2021, 09:53:15 am »
Quote
Anarchy is preferred to tyranny for me,

I am fine with a personal preference.  But:

What puts TP on the shelves.  One Brand is better than no brand.



Which one is Anarchy?
« Last Edit: October 24, 2021, 09:55:17 am by K-Dog »

Phil Potts

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Re: Geopolitics Errata.
« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2021, 09:56:07 am »
The Pentagon's computer wargaming shows it can't win against China alone or Russia alone, not just as a block. It's just the proximity problem.  Yet they seem to be going ahead. That raises the question of who is really in control, who talks about need to depopulate. That would be the financiers of wars.

A full nuke exchange can't be won because it destroys all life on earth.  the Russians and Chinese have plans for moving a large segment of population inland away from radioactive cities if necessary. It may not come to that though. There may be only a conventional war between the 3 majors.

I meant a tactical nuke exchange in open war between India and China in the himalayas. We are working hard on supporting India's expansion there at Pakistan and China's expense, as a second front.

We can't have it both ways that both overpopulation and declining population are collapse. Declining population is only a problem with the GDP growth based paradigm and that's over anyway. There is now the final transfer of assett ownership underway, just look at how something like 2 trillion $ were moved in the past two years.

Chinese factories are not ALL closed and the ones that have been is not permanent. For the US bound exports it makes no difference when there are so many container ships waiting to be unloaded anyway. For everyone else waiting on things in shortage, it means high prices and slow delivery times. That's one more reason we can't have continued growth, either there is a lot less consumption not just of goods but also energy, or there are less people. It makes sense to have less high consumers of energy. That's us.


K-Dog

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Re: Geopolitics Errata.
« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2021, 10:16:24 am »
If the Chinese and Russians manage to develop low cost hyper-sonic missiles all the 18 wheelers in America could be taken out at once.  No nuclear war, game over.