Gentlemen
It's a beautiful day here. It's sunny, cool and the air is better than it has been for 2 months. We had some rain recently which has been a significant stress reducer. It gets old fast waking up several times each night to smell the smoke and check the horizon. The folks down south don't have the respite. Thousands are on the fire line in CA. Hundreds of homes have been lost.
Another day for me attempting to maintain a thin veneer of competence and productivity. I'm inside for a break after spending quality time with my chainsaw in the woods taking down excess fuel.
Regarding the topic at hand:
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/leaderless-lebanon-slippery-slope-mayhem-2021-08-23/So is Lebanon in the midst of collapse? or, is it not collapse until they're all dead? Nurses, doctors, aircraft mechanics, hookers, anyone with a transferrable skill took the last stagecoach out of Dodge. Lebanon used to be very wealthy and civilized. It ain't Somalia.
Endless war and misery on the periphery of the empire are increasing, right on pace for general societal collapse. We could debate the state of numerous countries and regions and their obvious future but Buddy J will not recognize collapse until it starts sleeping on his couch and using his toothbrush.
But the state of human geo-politics is not the basis for my view on collapse. Human institutions will not survive the collapse of the major natural systems. You are correct, billions do not see it my way. Billions upon billions have not had my experience. Had I spent my life commuting from one cubicle to another I might not see the collapse of the natural world or give it much thought if I did notice it. After all, the Cheetos are still on the store shelves. The chemicals to keep the lawn green are still available, the car is still shiny, water still comes out of the tap (for now), the average Kardashian ass is still bigger than a Buick and the government has my best interests at heart.
Here is an example of how denial of natural systems works in practice. It is also a prefect metaphor for how the US deals with crisis. Capitalism at its finest.
https://gizmodo.com/trumps-border-wall-torn-apart-by-arizona-monsoon-rains-1847535174?utm_campaign=Gizmodo&utm_content=&utm_medium=SocialMarketing&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR3lI9wJyitfV-IBacp0nMS-7hTGRy_BsE3QNrtDybVS_bLxWEYF1I0gGC8Between us, my wife and I have over 75 years experience working in the natural world. ( I checked the fossil record) She, being the brains, beauty and ambition of this outfit, has all the managerial level experience. I've spent my time at the grunt level in various follies. In her last gig for the government she managed 6.3 million acres - the Humboldt Toiyabe National Forest - with about 400 employees. In the course of her career she has made the professional acquaintance of hundreds of "ologists", that is hydrologists, fisheries biologists, wildlife biologists, silvaculturalists, ecologists, botanists etc. Of course they maintain various networks and keep track of each others' work in the various fields. She has also worked internationally as a consultant on climate change strategies for several different governments as well as state governments in the US. In the course of this work she has also associated with numerous academics and experts in the fields I mentioned above as well as climate scientists, sociologists agriculturalists and a few goatherds.
They're all brighter than me and not one of these folks will tell you we aren't in dire straights. Not one. This matches what I see with my own eyes. You can worry about what Webster says ( I used to have a rooster named Webster. He was quite the talker.) I worry about dead and missing birds, disappeared pollinators, Massive levels of species extinction, dying forests, collapsing ecosystems, dead fish floating in oxygen starved rivers, disappearing ocean fisheries, shellfish baking on the rocks, whole towns burning in wildfires, little kids drinking lead and I'm just getting started.
There is no coming back from this. The fact that most folks are oblivious to the situation doesn't make me wrong. Just lonely. RE is right. There is no place on the planet that is not experiencing collapse at some level. Oblivious humans are no proof against it.
Can you think of one civilization that has withstood environmental collapse or a precipitous decline in available resources?
An increase of the human population well past sustainable levels is not, in my view, an indication that collapse isn't ongoing. In fact, I view it as the opposite - another symptom/cause of collapse.
I also view the techno-fantasies of life on Mars as another symptom. If this were even possible how many humans would it benefit?
A lesson for me from recent history involves the US entry into WW2. With the fullness of time it is obvious that the US was going to war. However, on Dec 6th 1941 a majority of Americans believed the US should, could and would stay out of the war. The truth was inconvenient. The end of empire and ecological collapse is just as inconvenient now.
I'm not here for a battle of wits or definitions and stats with you, Buddy J. It's obvious I would come to the contest poorly armed and barely able to defend myself. I wish you well. It would be better if you were right. But your not.
A tune for RE
And now back to it. I'll need to harvest plums today before the hornets get 'em. The dogs were busy last night - It's been a poor year for wild berries and the bear are hungry. They smell the fruit. The deer look good but the rabbits have disappeared. I keep a backyard above ground 16'x4' pool filled in the summer for fire protection. It holds about 6,000 gallons. Well, a few frogs have moved in. They will be sorely disappointed in a few weeks when the pool goes away.