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Messages - FarmGirl

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1
General Discussion / Re: Standards
« on: April 04, 2023, 03:01:57 pm »
Quote from: K-Dog on April 04, 2023, 09:09:11 am
Phil is not being punished.  The statement I added to our new registration agreement has nothing to do with you or Phil.  The banter between you 2 triggered it, but it is a good thing to have in our registration agreement because trolls love to lie and accuse people of being 'opposite' from their professed sympathies.  They know it pisses you off.  I am a veteran of Clusterfuck Nation.  I have seen you post there.  I know about trolls.

K-Dog, I've never participated, posted, or done anything at Cluserfuck Nation. I think I clicked on a link provided here  at this website once, and noticed that it was so full of ads, that it wasn't even worth reading the article I went there for.

So WHAT are you talking about?


2
General Discussion / Re: Standards
« on: April 03, 2023, 02:01:36 pm »
Quote from: K-Dog on April 02, 2023, 12:55:26 pm
'Members shall not accuse each other of backpedaling on previous statements without showing a quote documenting the previous statement.   ?

I don't feel it is necessary to punish Phil for just misinterpreting something I said related to when the basics of collapse came into view, if I were going to offer up a date when you could begin to see the basics arriving in public. I stand by the quotes he came up with, his interpretation was just off.

3
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« on: April 03, 2023, 01:59:21 pm »
Quote from: Phil Potts on April 01, 2023, 02:05:22 pm
The point is you appeared to forget saying this:

 "And the coming collapse is a given, and has been since folks began realizing what growth and consumption and capitalism and pollution will do, call it Earth Day 1970 if you want me to pick a date when the basics of collapse were coming into view reasonably widely."

when saying this about three days later:

That is a claim that has been around 1970 Earth Day when the collapse was supposed to arrive via overpopulation and pollution.

Oh, I don't forget this at all, I forget the government goon part. I picked a date when the basics of collapse were coming into view, Earth Day 1970. Pollution, climate, lack of oil, I completely agree with both statemenets. The second statement is nothing but mentioning that pollution and overpopulation were part of what was claimed during Earth Day 1970. I like that as a marker for when scientists and credible people claimed a doom that then didn't arrive.

Quote from: Phil Potts
Backpedaling on that could be believable, but not when you have more claims of a rough peak date being complete collapse, than remaining barrels of oil on earth.  [/b]

I didn't back pedal on anything. Coming collapse was noticed and the particulars laid down, if I had to pick a date, on Earth Day 1970. Turns out, the timing sure was nonsense though.

Quote from: Phil Potts
Do you recall regularly going back and deleting your posts at DD, so that would not be possible, even if we had access to the archives?

Farmgirl has never deleted any posts whatsoever.  ;)





4
General Discussion / Re: Power outages in tens of thousands, widespread damage reported from Arkansas tornado
« on: April 01, 2023, 01:15:23 pm »
Quote from: K-Dog on April 01, 2023, 09:40:46 am
Quote from: RE on April 01, 2023, 12:54:16 am
A bizzy year beginning in Tornado Alley.  So far about double the seasonal average.

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/mar/31/widespread-damage-reported-across-central-arkansas-on-friday/

Power outages in tens of thousands, widespread damage reported from Arkansas tornado

RE

Someone will say that tornadoes have been around forever and climate change has nothing to do with, an increased stochastic propensity.  ****.

How quaint, A) climate change deniers are still a thing, and B) has anyone ever claimed that tornadoes aren't a thing? As long as there was an atmosphere around creating thunderstorms anyway. If any show up, just ask them how without climate change we would ever have gotten the wonderful country of Canada, there weren't any Great Lakes to swim in but maybe some great ice skating was available?, there couldn't be any Swedish Bikini Team because there would be no Sweden, and the Yucatan Penninsula almost touched Florida, which was once more than twice as wide as it is now! Mexicans could just swim to the US back then.





5
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« on: April 01, 2023, 12:52:26 pm »
Quote from: K-Dog on April 01, 2023, 09:37:04 am
You will know collapse when you see it.

Sure...but how many years do you need to see it and claim it before everyone else figures out you pulled the trigger on claiming it WAY early?

Quote from: K-Dog
You may also think some things are collapse which are not.  Only a total idiot will think there is no collapse when there is.

Possibly true. Except you haven't provided your definition, so how can even YOU know it when you see it, let alone the rest of us matching reality to the definition? I understand the pornography tie in, but we aren't talking about whether or not an exposed breast on film is pornography, but whether or not conventional peak oil 18 years ago has caused folks to run out fuel since then, causing collapse.

Quote from: K-Dog
The world has a lot of total idiots.

Indeed. And I'm betting that doomers and non-doomers have about the same percentage of them represented within their respective groups.

6
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« on: April 01, 2023, 12:45:46 pm »
Quote from: Phil Potts on March 31, 2023, 06:00:20 pm
Quote from: FarmGirl on March 30, 2023, 02:04:47 pm
You'll have to fill me in on this government goon, I can't say I remember any such event myself?

While I'm the first to suspect a lot of stories that don't add up being made up, I'll bet the farm that one was real.

I am also the first to suspect that things that don't add up are made up, but I would still need reminded of the particulars.

Quote from: Phil Potts
You don't seem to recall saying above in the past few days that Earth Day 1970 brought the inevitability of collapse via pollution and resource depletion into focus.

Oh, of COURSE I remember that. Just not anything about government goons being involved. And I said nothing about inevitability, I said that esteemed scientists and others of a similar ilk were predicting various forms of real life collapse (population wipeouts and everything, REAL collapse, not personal or recessions and whatnot). Perhaps you forgot the part where I was referencing esteemed others, it certainly wasn't me doing it.

Quote from: Phil Potts
So you can be forgiven forgetting further back than the past few years, the anecdote:

How in your impulsive and testosterone fuelled youth, way out where they play the 5 string with 6 fingers, probably a county official wanted to go onto your property and.. I suppose check your bag limit for varmints? That then resulting in a lengthy court case that almost made you as Americans say, a 'felon' forevermore, just for firing at his feet or in the air? [/b]

I do not recall this being a personal experience, no. I apologize if I don't remember the context, if you could just link to what I wrote it will help me try and understand the reference. 

7
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« on: March 31, 2023, 12:30:34 pm »
Quote from: K-Dog on March 31, 2023, 10:01:49 am
We are in pre-collapse.  It it is hard to argue collapse has not begun.

Okay, I'll bite. For real collapse to have begun, we would need a windup to a 15-20% decrease in human population. How about 5%? When the population drops 5% across a year, I'll give you that we've got one decent windup coming for collapse. But let's say, as some might, that a real collapse as I've outlined is too severe. People dying off in large numbers, hard to grasp based on the world we were all raised in, so let me ask, prior to claiming anything is pre-collapse, what is your definition of collapse? We need that to be able to figure out any precursors to it. My definition is easy to calculate a pre-collapse, human population decreases year over year, or three. Like the Black Plague in the chart I provided prior. That could be considered a pre-collapse, a warmup to the main event. But in that case, and by definition using mine, a pre-collapse is possible THAT DOESN'T TURN INTO A REAL COLLAPSE. I'll stipulate to that one.

So, what is your definition of collapse, that we might speculate on what a "pre" might look like?

Quote from: K-Dog
  If everyone got smart, an impossibility. collapse could be avoided for centuries.  But the truth is we are past a dozen tipping points.  It is only a matter of time now.

That is a claim that has been around 1970 Earth Day when the collapse was supposed to arrive via overpopulation and pollution. What is a tipping point called when it DOESN'T tip? And can it be used again without an explanation for why it didn't work the last time someone tried it out?

Quote from: K-Dog
Civilization will return when intelligent squirrels find RE's tombstone and extract the info about the original Diner from the digital archive in the stone.

How does civilization relate to your definition of collapse? As RE pointed out, the Roman Empire collapsed, but human population did not. So an empire, or even civilzation collapsing, is not itself a collapse severe enough to trigger the metrics I've laid out for my definition.

Quote from: K-Dog
Consider this: 

The picture is 'in denial' of collapse in a way.  It suggests 'we' can adapt.  One side of the road still lives.  If we can always adapt there will be no collapse.  A ridiculous perspective.  Thinking there is always a way ignores how much human flesh is alive.  Math says we will collapse. 

Okay, I agree that math says we will collapse. Physics even more so. It is a given, because the Sun is getting lighter, and as it gets lighter it burns hotter, and our planet has the oceans boiled away, and long before that, we will have collapsed. Excluding the astrophysical (a nice GRB would be terribly entertaining for a short period of time as well) I also agree that adaption itself does not stop collapse.

Quote from: K-Dog
Without oil there are far to many to feed.  Social breakdown is inevitable, but we are not there yet.

Well, good thing we don't appear to be without oil yet then? Even better, places like America have more of it, and fewer to feed, than places like India.

8
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« on: March 31, 2023, 12:07:01 pm »
Quote from: RE on March 31, 2023, 05:25:34 am
Never mind that by her standards the Great Depression wasn't a collapse and neither was WWII.

Absolutely correct. Recessions and Depressions aren't collapses, they are recessions and depressions. WWII was a big war, killed lots of people, but even when killing was done on purpose it didn't fall into a true collapse definition. Until recessions, depressions, wars cause an actual, honest to God, we are all going to die moment across such a wide swath of the population that maybe...just maybe...change arrives?

Is it not reasonable to speculate that the kind of change we need as a species must have exactly the kind of collapse I've detailed for enough humans to react to it, and change their behavior and possibly then save the world for those who make it through the eye of the needle?


Quote from: RE
Hell, the collapse of the Roman Empire wasn't a collapse.  She practices the same form of Denial as MKing and uses the same rhetorical tricks.  Ho Hum.

Human population chart going WAY back.

Notice that the Roman collapse wasn't a bump in the path, so no, the Roman EMPIRE collapsing wasn't a human collapse, just an empire collapse. The Black Death though, that one had potential for awhile, far more than anything before.

And since when is data and a definition a trick? Let alone a rhetorical one. Has anyone else even ventured a competing collapse definition? No, they've just bashed mine. It is easy to tear down, difficult to create. I find this amazing, as isn't this a place where folks who have thought about this for a long time hang out? K-Dog had an excellent refinement to my definition, but how can it be that no one here has a readily available definition of their own? Could it be because monsta and I are onto something, and pretending a volcano going off in the Pacific or some folks not getting as much fuel as they want somewhere is obviously not collapse but just run of the mill crappy luck, economic malaise, poor decisions on the part of leaders, etc etc?

9
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« on: March 31, 2023, 11:53:54 am »
Quote from: K-Dog on March 31, 2023, 02:20:47 am
Buying of gas will be observed by circling buzzards long after it becomes unobtainable to an average Joe.  Then the infrastructure to get it will totally break down and we will have collapse 2.0.  Like a release of Windows.  Collapse 1.0 will do in billions before the total breakdown.  Collapse 2.0 will follow 1.0 quickly.  The road to ruin is rapid.

Unobtainable is the scarcity perspective, yes. But the economic concept is high prices precede those buzzards, scarcity causing conservation and substitution, which then alters the supply/demand relationship and hence price. RE knows economics and is familiar with this intermediate step from that perspective, can probably ponticate at length on it, would be interesting to hear how someone  familiar with the social science in question rearranges the pieces. All of this is pre-buzzard of course. Which makes the realistic and just as interesting non-collapse question....how fast can the subsitution and conservation take place, and does the resultant price from that relationship cause unobtainable for average Joe, or just, you know, expensive? Like happened in the 70's. That was worse than hypothetical unobtainable from hypothetic peak oils, it was ACTUAL unobtainable because rationing occurred, as well as an actual global peak oil in 1979. Peak oil 2005 didn't cause anything like that level of dislocation. Prices did go up though, but contradicting that evidence is that peak oil also occurred in 2018 and prices didn't do much of anything, until European geopolitical events disturbed the markets.

10
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« on: March 30, 2023, 08:03:59 pm »
Quote from: K-Dog on March 30, 2023, 04:09:36 pm
Reading the discussion the thought comes that we should remind ourselves collapse is real.

Or GOING to be real.

Quote from: K-Dog
Bald tyres, and over 100mph on the wrong side of the road, drunk and high.  And I was lucky enough not to crash, but that was then and this is now.

Wrong side of the road, crossed center at 50 mph in a 30 mph corner, hit a Toyota truck head on. Bruises, **** ribs and sternum, woke up in a hospital and couldn't move below the waist. Not lucky. Turns out a compression fracture of the spine isn't a broken back. Lucky indeed. But that was then, and this is now.

Quote from: K-Dog
Such behavior will likely bring on a personal collapse.  Personal collapse is nothing new and always true.  But, if you can't get stuff to get high with and your bald tyres are not going anywhere because nobody has gas, that is beyond personal.  That is a real collapse.

Well, right now gas is available at most corner convenience stores, just as it has been since conventional peak oil happened in 2005. You can also buy a truck delivery for your 3000 gallon farm tank if you are worried about not having enough for your monster truck or tractor, just pick up the phone and have it delivered. Plus, not having gas is not having gas, today anyway perhaps, different than a real collapse where, rather than waiting for more fuel to arrive (rationing and no gas happened in Pennsylvania back in the late 70's...it wasn't collapse) you can't get it, and the consequences lead to a population decrease from what happens next. Real collapse.
 
Quote from: K-Dog
On a global scale.

Yup. Folks not getting gas globally would certainly be a good beginning to a possible real collapse. But less is different than none, and I think folks shouldn't be looking down their noses at alternative forms of transport, if at all possible. Prepping is good.

11
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« on: March 30, 2023, 02:04:47 pm »
Quote from: Phil Potts on March 30, 2023, 01:16:12 am
Quote from: FarmGirl on March 27, 2023, 07:21:34 am
Now go do a survey and see if you can figure out how many folks will willingly run to that lifestyle and call it "liberation".
If you and the other conformist herd animals I expressly excluded from also not putting ultimate value on running water are as happy as pigs in ****, why object to the word "wonderful" for your Brave New World?

Conformist herd animals? Not sure I acquired that characteristic considering my history is anything but....you get this because I defined collapse in a way you don't like? How did you make that leap? Running water is a great thing, having lived without it for 4 winters in high school when the pipes froze, I can personally attest to its greatness. Each spring!

Quote from: Phil Potts
Quote from: FarmGirl
Those raised on a farm know exactly how liberating it is. Or not.
The govt goon you threatened to shoot got their way right? So it's exactly as liberating as living in luxury in Trump Tower or Mar a Lago when the feds come with a warrant.

You'll have to fill me in on this government goon, I can't say I remember any such event myself? 

12
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« on: March 27, 2023, 05:46:05 pm »
Quote from: K-Dog on March 27, 2023, 11:53:29 am
Quote
Those raised on a farm know exactly how liberating it is. Or not.

The once common upbringing.

I have been looking at old magazine archives.  Pulp fiction and stuff.  In the roaring twenties young men and women wanted to eat drink and be merry in rebellion against life on the farm.  Move to the big city was their thing, break with the past.  Not a generation to say no to oil.

Understanding these things helps to understand how we got where we are.  Their rebellion polluted generations to come.

Was it really about "polluting"? Atfer WWII could Americans really be expected just to go back to walking behind a plow horse and happily trying to scratch a living from the dirt like their parents had?

The idea of getting back to the land seems a bit romanticized by the doomers, don't you think? There are first the ones who can, and to some extent have built a life in the non-agrarian world first, and then carry their cash with them to make a rural lifestyle possible. Includes folks getting paid for online activities, which can make a somewhat romanticized version of what normal "living on the farm" possible. And then there are folks who mean it, do it well, and choose to live that life. As opposed to those of us raised there, and know absolutely that we want nothing more to do with it. And why. Certainly it wasn't because we just wanted to eat drink and be merry. More like get the hell away from mind numbing drudgery with no end. Might seem interesting after a busy 80 hour a week professional career as a calming influence or something, an appreciation of the slow and mind numbing, but being raised in that environment and never wanting to go back strikes me as occurring more often.


13
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« on: March 27, 2023, 07:21:34 am »
Quote from: Phil Potts on March 27, 2023, 01:17:37 am
To you and Pharoah, Egypt before the famine, pestilence and plague was wonderful, no collapse. To Moses that was already hell and 40 yrs of back to basics nomadic herding and consolidating a strong society was a liberation. [/b]

My goodness, find anywhere I've ever said that my life is wonderful? Or that there is no collapse? Just because I define it strictly in order to not cheapen its meaning to be "gee the market was down 5% this quarter, whoa is me for my stock portfolio" doesn't make me the Pharoah any more than it does Moses. And I'll grant you that the modern day Amish certainly have a strong society and are liberated from many of the doomer concerns as to what happens next when a REAL collapse arrives.

Now go do a survey and see if you can figure out how many folks will willingly run to that lifestyle and call it "liberation". Those raised on a farm know exactly how liberating it is. Or not. Go lecture Elon about being unfamiliar with what was once a common American upbringing, back in the day, or advocating for that as the standard human condition. A real collapse will certainly attempt to drive the world in that direction, and "liberating" as a descriptor won't matter in the least to folks who just don't want to starve.

14
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« on: March 27, 2023, 07:11:37 am »
Quote from: K-Dog on March 26, 2023, 10:40:29 am
The spectrum of collapse.  I too have pondered exactly what is collapse.  Change and death are the way of the world.  A doomer has to wonder if they are a bit off.  Is it a problem that doom heads can't accept reality?

No, collapse is unwanted change and collapse is change which could be prevented. 

Well now, THIS is an interesting take on the definition. I like it. Collapse is unwanted change that could have been prevented.

How about we refine it, as it is a bit vague, for example, I don't like gaining weight, it could certainly have been prevented, but it is not collapse. It is just me getting fat.

"Collapse is a negative global change in overall human population that could have been prevented."

Nice refinement. It gets my vote.

Quote from: K-Dog
Not accepting the unwanted is a good thing!

Not accepting the unwanted is a perfectly normal human trait, I agree.

Quote from: K-Dog
Doom stalks society but only because people pretend doom is not there.  The denial habit.  If people deal with doom they prepare for the future. 

Doom stalks PEOPLE. It is called mortality. Of course we pretend it isn't there, and yup, it is the denial habit. If we accept our personal doom, we might prepare for the future, or we might decide to live while the living is good, knowing that none of us gets out of here alive, and THAT is the ultimate and unescapable doom. Whether it is wrapped up in a global reduction in population or we are hit by a bus is irrelevant, after we are dead do we really care about the HOW?

Quote from: K-Dog
We know people don't deal with doom or prepare for the future.  Preparing for the future cancels doom.  Not going to happen, but in theory doom could be prevented by rational actions.

Preparing for the future, eating right, exercising, not smoking or drinking does not cancel the one doom we all face, no way, no how. It just prolongs our duration playing the game. I'm not sure what doom theory is...the idea that projecting the underlying fear of our personal dooms onto society at large makes it easier to handle? So putting buckets of beans and rice in the garage relieves some of the stress that comes with our psychological wrestling with our mortality?

Quote from: K-Dog
Denial is a product of psychology and social pressure not to defy authority should make any sane person question their sanity.  It is hard to think you can keep dry in a rainstorm.  Even harder to actually do it.

Denial is also what we do when eating cake and candy and not exercising. Think about it, what happens when we finally confront the consequences of our actions, after taking care of ourselves poorly in search of a sugar high and gluttonous behavior? We go to the doctor and demand pills to cure us (renewables will save us!), we are told the damage is done because of our past behavior (you can't change CO2 levels fast enough to matter!), maybe you can add weeks or months to your life but no more (ditch fossil fuels and it might give your kids an extra year or three with luck before they burn/drown or die in resource wars or starve!).

Quote from: K-Dog
Control has great interest in maintaining denial and fighting doom.  Control wants to maintain existing arrangements and will cultivate denial of any other reality.

Substitute our biological and psychological needs as "control" and you betcha.

I forward the supposition as follows:

1) Smarter folks are more likely to suffer from an underlying understanding of their personal doom, and desire to handle it by projecting the natural consequences of life onto the planet or the species which makes it easier to discuss with others.
2) Smarter folks then find others to discuss these things with, occasionally even touching on the underlying issue, as opposed to making it a conspiracy among (fill in each of our favorites) and bringing our fears into the open with someone else to blame, keeping hidden from our own psyche (not really) the knowledge that even if we had been born Amish, we would still die. They have religious to calm them during their living years...doomers do not overall appear to be religiously oriented.
3)  Few actually make the link I am now supposing, anchored as they are in their present belief system. It is just easier for others to be involved and DOING this to us then accept the thing we truly fear, and deep down know we cannot escape, no matter how many buckets of beans we have in the basement, or gold bars stacked in the closet, or how clean a life we live in tune with nature.



15
General Discussion / Re: Climate Doom
« on: March 26, 2023, 08:32:57 am »
Quote from: K-Dog on March 25, 2023, 03:43:21 pm

5. ANTARCTIC SEA ICE HITS RECORD LOW



Seasonal variations in the extent of Antarctic sea ice. Bad news arrived in February from scientists monitoring the Antarctic ice cap. The extent of floating sea ice surrounding the frosty continent shrank to a record low as the southern summer peaked, to only 66% of the levels usually present at this time of the year.

That is a cool graphic. I've seen one for the Arctic as well, both are them are far more telling I believe than the endless discussions and whatnot. There is ice. Then there isn't. Would someone care to explain why, other than...you know...stuff is warmer now?

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