Global Collapse

Indonesia is #1 in coal exports. Australia is #2. Russia is #3. The first two are now blocking exports and the 3rd is sanctioned.

Replacing Russian oil and NG with coal is exactly what Europe has been trying to do since BEFORE the war in Ukraine broke out.....because all the expensive renewables that were supposed to replace FF's have not panned out as planned.

Energy and industrial ag are ****.  Europe is ****, especially.

UK covid rate higher among vaxxed than unvaxxed


https://summit.news/2021/11/19/official-public-health-england-data-says-covid-infection-rates-higher-in-vaxxed-then-unvaxxed/

“Fresher information has fortified this conclusion of the summer. In every age group over 30 in the UK, the rates of Covid infection per 100,000 are now higher among the vaxxed than the unvaxxed. Indeed, in the cohorts aged between 40 and 79, infection rates among the vaccinated are more than twice as high as among the unvaccinated. PHE’s fruitlessly rechristened body, the UK Health Security Agency, frantically clarifies that the data ‘should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness’, a caveat which I include for the sake of accuracy. But the differences in the infection rates are drastic enough for you to draw your own conclusions.”

Meanwhile, the Times reports the results of another study which “found the double-jabbed are just as likely to pass on Covid-19 as unvaccinated people.”

This kind of ignorance of math is appalling.  Consider.....if nearly everyone has been vaccinated, as is the case in the UK and some states here, then the pool of unvaxxed people who might get sick gets diminishingly smaller over time....and so it is a given that there will be more vaccinated people who have infections than unvaccinated people, unless vaccination protects everyone 100%, which we know is not the case.

Just stupid. Really appallingly dumb.

I’m long oil, gas, uranium, and a few other commodities. I’m building an income portfolio that is going to flow cash like you won’t believe.

Nobody gets out of here alive. I will be dust before the Big Crash. I just hope it’s no time soon. (The dust part, I mean.)

Is that why a large profit in the market is called "making a killing'?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVxYOQS6ggk

 
It takes 4-5 years to build a fertilizer plant. 

I think, again, that major war is a possibility you all play down a bit.  That would accelerate the process.  Just because such a turn of events would be stupid and suicidal does not preclude it from happening.

Tell us what the crop yields will be in 2022 and a good guess can be made as to the condition of the world's human population.  People in Pakistan pay near 50% of their household income for food.  Currently my hay price - if you can find it is up 33% from this time last year.  Oats are unavailable, but would be triple if I could find them.  Chicken scratch (mostly corn) is up about 75% from last year.  What will the people do in countries where food is a large portion of their financial outlay if these increases are passed along?  I understand that those who firmly believe in corporate/government capitalism minimize the seriousness of the global food situation, the effect of FF on the environment, the poisoning of billions by polluting industry, the mutual geo-political frailties that will amplify under more stress and the general orneriness of people.

It's not about us.  It's about the grandchildren.  Mine, yours and everybody's.
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It’s called making an investment. Taking the money I saved and investing it to pay for my retirement. Oil and gas is now out of favor from a social and political perspective, but everybody still wants to have the lights working and the heat on in the winter. That creates a unique arbitrage opportunity for people who can do math and what actually see the world for what it is. College endowments are divesting from FF’s because they are under pressure from students. The same students who have very sizable carbon footprints of their own (many of them anyway) , and don’t even think about their own consumption.

I think my grandchildren are more likely benefit from me directly, than from some half-baked attempts to reverse climate change, that aren’t even close to changing anything, or even working.

I’m also investing in renewable energy, fwiw. But the value right now is in oil and gas. Before all of us are gone, there will be no more “oil companies”. There will only be “energy companies”. Big oil is pivoting for their own survival and those companies are not run by idiots.

When harassed about Jeff Bezos taking his jet to COP26, Bezos’s spokesperson made a point of defending him, saying that his plane uses only “sustainable jet fuel” and that he buys carbon credits to make his emissions net zero.

You know who sells sustainable jet fuel? BP. Yeah.

I’m also investing carbon credits, fwiw. Carbon credits make no sense to me, as someone who is concerned about the environment (and I am)....but’s that what these big climate summits are all about, behind the scenes.

It’s probably further out there on the horizon than anybody who has posted so far thinks it is....food will be more expensive, but nobody is about to starve. We still have plenty of FF’s and we still know how to make ammonium nitrate.

I’m long oil, gas, uranium, and a few other commodities. I’m building an income portfolio that is going to flow cash like you won’t believe.

Nobody gets out of here alive. I will be dust before the Big Crash.I just hope it’s no time soon. (The dust part, I mean.)

Quote from: K-Dog on October 08, 2021, 10:54:47 am

Quote

How society will reconfigure remains open to conjecture.

Concentrating on resisting the near term entropy on a personal level might be wise.

How does one "resist entropy"?  Clean your garage?

RE

That’s where I’m working on it. Just sayin’.

Butchering is incredibly hard work. It helps to have a great place to do it (I don’t) and plenty of water. I think everybody should have to skin out an animal for meat at least once, to understand exactly where their sausages come from.

When I was a kid, it was still very common to see a large iron boiling pot in people’s front yards in East Texas, just waiting for hard times to come back.

First frost it gets cold enough....our neighbors, my childhood best friend’s grandparents, had a smokehouse,  and back in about...oh, 1962, I remember my Dad and Mom and all of us, two families, getting together to butcher a couple of pigs. Good memories.

I butchered several piglets when I got rid of my heritage pigs and I still have some in the freezer. it needs to be eaten before it goes bad, Now that my son is temporarily living at the house maybe we can smoke a few hams in the smoker this fall.

The way the Netherlands grows food is the way everybody will be growing food eventually, because of climate change.  But without abundant power, it doesn’t work.

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/dutch-greenhouses-go-dark-energy-crisis-worsens-food-inflation-fears-mount-europe.

Got natural gas?

When I first started being interested in cryptos, one idea I had was that it would be nice to own stock in some company that just made money of the crypto market, rather than taking all the risks of putting my money on the blockchain. I could not find any good ones at the time. Now I think there is one. Silverlake Capital. I think it’s a little overpriced, but if we have an October crash, I might buy a little, just for fun.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/welcome-news-cryptos-biden-admin-seeks-regulate-stablecoin-issuers-banks

Quote from: Eddie on September 21, 2021, 11:43:36 am

Quote from: BuddyJ on September 20, 2021, 08:48:03 am

Quote from: K-Dog on September 19, 2021, 07:53:54 pm

Bayes theorem can do it.  Easy Peasy.  I wrote an article that explains exactly how to do this:  Monday September 6th,   Calculations of All Kinds  https://chasingthesquirrel.com/ scroll down to September 6th put your thinking cap on, and enjoy the story.

I think I managed to avoid statistics entirely while getting through college. I like the story, but it is a bit overwrought for most folks to wade through it all. It wasn't until I began building stochastic models utilizing Bayesian inference designs that I paid any attention to any of it. My beef with the statisticians has always been their theoretical approach to practical problems and making statistical assumptions along the way contradicted by the underlying reality of the data. The Central Limit Theorem being a popular one to screw up. Drove me nuts.

Off topic. I started buying Phillips 66 today. Hope to build a long term buy and hold. Maybe ten years or more this time. This is different than my usual approach to the stock market.

I think Phillips is a steal....I have my eyes on some others, like Diamondback....but I’m just starting to put my toes in the water. It’s sort of counter-intuitive that energy companies will benefit from climate change related policy changes.....but they will, I think.

First it was Ganga, then Crypto, now Energy.  Maybe 3rd time is the Charm.  Or then again, 3 Strikes you're OUT. lol.

RE

It’s because of climate change.

BTW, I was up 5% the first day. Portends well.....hehehe.

I made over 100K real money in  a year on pot stocks. But more importantly I learned just about everything there is to know about penny stocks in general.

I had to sell my crypto to raise cash to pay taxes. Had I been able to hold one more year, I would have gotten stupid rich off the portfolio I built. I sold to make the missus happy. so it goes. But I understand crypto quite well now.

The energy play is a little different. It has to do with how big corporations are spending big money to get carbon credits so they can claim to be carbon neutral when they aren’t really.....like Amazon, for instance. It will play out over years and decades. This is a buy and hold, I do expect to see some downside at times...but these companies pay dividends that are quite good, so some of the benefit is that you can get compounding.