Post by: RE on March 18, 2023, 03:56:11 am
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/17/asia/japan-population-crisis-countryside-cities-intl-hnk-dst/index.html
This community’s quarter century without a newborn shows the scale of Japan’s population crisis
RE
Post by: RE on December 05, 2022, 12:14:26 am
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2022/12/03/young-americans-increasingly-end-their-own-lives
Young Americans increasingly end their own lives
Post by: John of Wallan on November 12, 2022, 07:53:56 pm
We must be in overshoot if you look at fisheries failing, arable land and topsoil loss, fossil fuel use vs discoveries etc... Still there are those pushing for population growth so they can make more money.
We aint gonna get to 9 Billion, let alone 10.
Sad.
JOW
Post by: RE on November 12, 2022, 03:14:38 am
https://www.economist.com/international/2022/11/11/the-worlds-population-has-reached-8bn-dont-panic
The world’s population has reached 8bn. Don’t panic
RE
Post by: RE on November 03, 2022, 02:07:28 am
https://www.scmp.com/news/world/europe/article/3198227/census-data-shows-1-6-people-england-and-wales-were-born-abroad-many-india
Census data shows 1 in 6 people in England and Wales were born abroad, many from India
RE
Post by: RE on October 30, 2022, 10:03:22 am
https://www.cnn.com/asia/live-news/seoul-south-korea-halloween-10-30-22/index.html
Over 150 killed in Seoul Halloween crowd surge
RE
Post by: RE on October 28, 2022, 02:55:03 am
https://kdvr.com/news/data/no-babies-no-schoolkids-how-colorados-birth-rate-tracks-with-jeffco-denver-school-closures/
No babies, no schoolkids: How Colorado’s birth rate tracks with Jeffco, Denver school closures No babies, no schoolkids: How Colorado’s birth rate tracks with Jeffco, Denver school closures
RE
Post by: RE on October 23, 2022, 08:25:17 am
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/family/parenting/child-free-choice-birth-rate-crisis-gripping-west/
Child-free by choice: The birth rate crisis gripping the West
(https://cf.eip.telegraph.co.uk/illustrator-embed/content/83ee0cc3a63c4ac85c7935a3ac8d295925807c0a/1666296177236.jpg)
RE
Post by: RE on October 20, 2022, 01:40:53 am
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2022/oct/18/global-population-growth-8-billion-unfdp-united-nations-warning-alarmism
UN warns against alarmism as world’s population reaches 8bn milestone
RE
Post by: RE on October 19, 2022, 02:20:37 am
https://fortune.com/2022/10/18/russia-population-historic-decline-emigration-war-plunging-birth-rate-form-perfect-storm/
Russia’s population is in a historic decline as emigration, war and a plunging birth rate form a ‘perfect storm’
RE
Post by: FarmGirl on September 28, 2022, 04:01:20 pm
Post by: RE on September 28, 2022, 08:29:29 am
The World's Population At Eight Billion, Visualized
https://digg.com/data-viz/link/world-population-8-billion-visualized-sptXHMMOcQ
RE
Post by: RE on September 06, 2022, 03:08:22 am
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220905-is-the-world-overpopulated
How many people can Earth handle?
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on July 15, 2022, 11:48:37 am
India is doing "Better than God-Awful Bad".
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/07/14/the-pecking-order-of-the-worlds-population-is-soon-to-change
The pecking order of the world’s population is soon to change
(https://infographics.economist.com/2022/20220716_GDC200/20220716_GDC200-Artboard_1_copy_2.png)
RE
Headlines..nothing more than headlines.. trying to forget I've got... no budget to read it
https://youtu.be/cf9RU3ykbY0
Post by: RE on July 15, 2022, 02:25:13 am
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/07/14/the-pecking-order-of-the-worlds-population-is-soon-to-change
The pecking order of the world’s population is soon to change
(https://infographics.economist.com/2022/20220716_GDC200/20220716_GDC200-Artboard_1_copy_2.png)
RE
Post by: RE on June 25, 2022, 02:08:31 am
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3534590-as-americans-age-a-demographic-crisis-looms/
As Americans age, a demographic crisis looms
RE
Post by: moniker on June 20, 2022, 01:26:55 pm
Phoenix not a good choice for Homeless in AZ summer. They should go to Flaggstaff.Is anyone familiar with the https://www.usmortality.com/excess-absolute ? It says there were about 1 million excess deaths in the US from Jan-20 to Apr-22, where excess deaths are expected deaths less actual deaths.
https://apnews.com/article/climate-science-health-and-environment-4f23d928ea637d239147c0e4adbad6dc
Sweltering streets: Hundreds of homeless die in extreme heat
RE
This seems like a significant increase if these numbers are accurate.
Post by: RE on June 20, 2022, 12:18:16 pm
https://apnews.com/article/climate-science-health-and-environment-4f23d928ea637d239147c0e4adbad6dc
Sweltering streets: Hundreds of homeless die in extreme heat
RE
Post by: K-Dog on June 06, 2022, 08:47:10 am
Hardly newz to readers of the Diner & Global Collapse.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/demographers-warn-of-impending-population-collapse_4512821.html?welcomeuser=1
Demographers Warn of Impending Population Collapse
RE
If we had Bill's resources all sorts of people would read our forum. People work full time promoting rich boy PR, and slinging Gates bullshit far and wide.
This goes to show how **** the world is. We praise the rich boy thinking they are 'smart'. The fact is Mr. Bill Fuckface Gates the world is in OVERSHOOT and your arrogance expedited our demise.
And if Mr. Bill Fuckface Gates can't wrap his head around OVERSHOOT which he could have understood when he was a self-proclaimed childhood genius, perhaps fish oil and vitamins can help. F-uck !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
https://www.farmlandriches.com/bill-gates-farmland/
Perhaps Bill will need serfs, and he is worried about having enough.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.gifer.com%2F78wO.gif&f=1&nofb=1)
Post by: RE on June 06, 2022, 12:02:48 am
https://www.theepochtimes.com/demographers-warn-of-impending-population-collapse_4512821.html?welcomeuser=1
Demographers Warn of Impending Population Collapse
RE
Post by: RE on May 12, 2022, 03:22:39 pm
RE
Post by: K-Dog on May 12, 2022, 11:01:05 am
People r just DYING 2 get into the cemetery.
https://apnews.com/article/overdose-deaths-opioids-fentanyl-8cb302a70ddbb6a435f9e8fbb19f153b
US overdose deaths hit record 107,000 last year, CDC says
RE
https://nypost.com/2022/05/12/covid-claims-1-million-us-lives/
COVID claims 1 million US lives: report
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn5.f-cdn.com%2Fcontestentries%2F1115195%2F23003495%2F59a02e3dd9f0c_thumb900.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)(https://cdn.drawception.com/drawings/Bq0wJHLBzZ.png)
I meet you and raise.
* The NYPOST is a good source for information known to be true.
Post by: RE on May 12, 2022, 01:38:40 am
https://apnews.com/article/overdose-deaths-opioids-fentanyl-8cb302a70ddbb6a435f9e8fbb19f153b
US overdose deaths hit record 107,000 last year, CDC says
RE
Post by: K-Dog on May 09, 2022, 10:36:39 am
Post by: K-Dog on May 09, 2022, 09:44:52 am
Post by: RE on May 09, 2022, 12:41:59 am
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2022/05/e9039ba6af26-musk-warns-japan-will-cease-to-exist-if-birthrate-continues-decline.html
Elon Musk warns Japan will cease to exist if birthrate continues decline
RE
Post by: RE on April 30, 2022, 08:21:44 am
https://www.deseret.com/2022/4/29/23048948/fertility-falling-birthrate-american-enterprise-institute-education-religion-economy-all-impacted
America’s fertility dilemma
RE
Post by: RE on March 28, 2022, 05:27:17 am
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/american-population-growth-rate-slow/629392/
Why U.S. Population Growth Just Crashed to an All-Time Low
RE
Post by: RE on March 09, 2022, 01:33:00 pm
Nuke Map
I don't know if this has been posted before - if so my apologies.
This is a pretty handy site when estimating casualties from various types of strikes in a nuclear war. The closest major target to here is Fairchild Air Force base on the outskirts of Spokane. For us, much would depend on wind direction. Today, the major fallout would be to our east. Yesterday it would have been right over us.
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
You live near Spokane? My best friend lives in Couer d'Alene!
You should meet!
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on March 09, 2022, 12:15:21 pm
Nuke Map
I don't know if this has been posted before - if so my apologies.
This is a pretty handy site when estimating casualties from various types of strikes in a nuclear war. The closest major target to here is Fairchild Air Force base on the outskirts of Spokane. For us, much would depend on wind direction. Today, the major fallout would be to our east. Yesterday it would have been right over us.
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/
Post by: RE on March 07, 2022, 12:47:47 am
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-06/thailand-bids-to-avert-population-crisis-as-birth-rate-crashes
Thailand Bids to Avert 'Population Crisis' as Birth Rate Crashes
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on February 19, 2022, 06:56:11 am
https://medium.com/@BritsPhil/the-philippines-genocide-up-to-3-million-filipinos-killed-6c5037ce7e9e
https://historyofyesterday.com/filipino-holocaust-in-the-hands-of-the-americans-6457a9647d2e
Thanks for posting this, Mr Potts. I can tell you that this history is NOT taught in the US public educational system. They would have you believe that the US freed the Philippines (and Cuba) from the oppressive Spanish colonialists - with only benign intentions. The popular (and completely mistaken) impression is that US history in the Philippines started with Bataan and Corregidor. Though there is some reference to pre-war McArthur - usually as a benevolent viceroy. The fiction includes the idea that America was never interested in a colonial empire - we were there and everywhere to project freedom and democracy. Jesus Christ.
I don't know why S Butler omitted this from his own account. Perhaps the truth was beyond his ability to cope.
Post by: Phil Potts on February 18, 2022, 01:54:22 pm
What is it good for?
Major General Smedley Darlington Butler (July 30, 1881 – June 21, 1940), nicknamed "Maverick Marine",[1] was a senior United States Marine Corps officer who fought in the Philippine–American War, the Boxer Rebellion, the Mexican Revolution and World War I. During his 34-year career as a Marine, he participated in military actions in the Philippines, China, and Central America; the Caribbean during the Banana Wars; and France in World War I. Butler was, at the time of his death, the most decorated Marine in U.S. history. By the end of his career, Butler had received 16 medals, five for heroism. He is one of 19 men to receive the Medal of Honor twice, one of three to be awarded both the Marine Corps Brevet Medal (along with Wendell Neville and David Porter) and the Medal of Honor, and the only Marine to be awarded the Brevet Medal and two Medals of Honor, all for separate actions.
“I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902-1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.”
― Smedley D. Butler, War is a Racket
Interesting how in his quote he mentioned all the places he went except Phillipines, that he would probably rather forget:
https://medium.com/@BritsPhil/the-philippines-genocide-up-to-3-million-filipinos-killed-6c5037ce7e9e
https://historyofyesterday.com/filipino-holocaust-in-the-hands-of-the-americans-6457a9647d2e
Post by: RE on February 17, 2022, 04:27:03 pm
What is it good for?
Major General Smedley Darlington Butler (July 30, 1881 – June 21, 1940), nicknamed "Maverick Marine",[1] was a senior United States Marine Corps officer who fought in the Philippine–American War, the Boxer Rebellion, the Mexican Revolution and World War I. During his 34-year career as a Marine, he participated in military actions in the Philippines, China, and Central America; the Caribbean during the Banana Wars; and France in World War I. Butler was, at the time of his death, the most decorated Marine in U.S. history. By the end of his career, Butler had received 16 medals, five for heroism. He is one of 19 men to receive the Medal of Honor twice, one of three to be awarded both the Marine Corps Brevet Medal (along with Wendell Neville and David Porter) and the Medal of Honor, and the only Marine to be awarded the Brevet Medal and two Medals of Honor, all for separate actions.
“I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902-1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.”
― Smedley D. Butler, War is a Racket
Smedley Butler is the HERO most Amerikans never heard of.
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on February 17, 2022, 03:59:12 pm
Major General Smedley Darlington Butler (July 30, 1881 – June 21, 1940), nicknamed "Maverick Marine",[1] was a senior United States Marine Corps officer who fought in the Philippine–American War, the Boxer Rebellion, the Mexican Revolution and World War I. During his 34-year career as a Marine, he participated in military actions in the Philippines, China, and Central America; the Caribbean during the Banana Wars; and France in World War I. Butler was, at the time of his death, the most decorated Marine in U.S. history. By the end of his career, Butler had received 16 medals, five for heroism. He is one of 19 men to receive the Medal of Honor twice, one of three to be awarded both the Marine Corps Brevet Medal (along with Wendell Neville and David Porter) and the Medal of Honor, and the only Marine to be awarded the Brevet Medal and two Medals of Honor, all for separate actions.
“I spent 33 years and four months in active military service and during that period I spent most of my time as a high class muscle man for Big Business, for Wall Street and the bankers. In short, I was a racketeer, a gangster for capitalism. I helped make Mexico and especially Tampico safe for American oil interests in 1914. I helped make Haiti and Cuba a decent place for the National City Bank boys to collect revenues in. I helped in the raping of half a dozen Central American republics for the benefit of Wall Street. I helped purify Nicaragua for the International Banking House of Brown Brothers in 1902-1912. I brought light to the Dominican Republic for the American sugar interests in 1916. I helped make Honduras right for the American fruit companies in 1903. In China in 1927 I helped see to it that Standard Oil went on its way unmolested. Looking back on it, I might have given Al Capone a few hints. The best he could do was to operate his racket in three districts. I operated on three continents.”
― Smedley D. Butler, War is a Racket
Post by: Digwe Must on February 15, 2022, 11:31:05 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JEmI_FT4YHU
Post by: Digwe Must on February 15, 2022, 08:37:31 am
Perhaps this belongs in the economy thread - but you guys seem to be on a roll there.
I find it ironic, to say the least, that while the US government is doing everything it can to provoke a war with Russia in the Ukraine, they have no problem with suppliers selling Russian ammo online. Since the start of the plandemic I've kept track of ammo price and availability, along with price and availability of some firearms. I view this as one barometer of public sentiment. For a while now, in the sources I monitor, good 12GA buckshot has been $1 a round - sometimes more. This as availability of relatively inexpensive shotguns has lately increased with a flush of Turkish imports.
Well, that has changed. This ad is part of a sale going on with SG Ammo. $.62 per round in a box of 15. $.47 per round in a case of 120.
"PRODUCT DETAILS
Fetter 12 Gauge 00 Buck is a reliable choice for a variety of roles, from deer hunting to personal defense and home defense. These shells are made with consistency and careful attention to detail just outside of Moscow. The translucent plastic hull provides smooth feeding and extraction in semi-auto or classic pump shotguns...."
So, while the masters of war plan their next profitable enterprise, they have no problem with making a few quick bucks on the side. The populace is largely distracted with Big Pharma's latest profit-at-any-cost-to-human-health enterprise. War has very little support among the populace - but that rarely matters to the profiteers.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJOLH8WfCaY What is it good for? Who benefits?
Post by: RE on February 15, 2022, 01:42:37 am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/14/health/valentines-day-love-marriage-relationships-wellness/index.html
Americans less likely to have sex, partner up and get married than ever
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on February 12, 2022, 09:59:57 am
Not so mysterious. Lotta DEAD PEOPLE incoming.
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2022/02/global-population-forecast-disagreement/621243/
The Next Century’s Big Demographic Mystery
RE
Next century, after adding the entire population of the world in 1945 to what we have now? That's the message
Post by: RE on February 12, 2022, 12:28:54 am
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2022/02/global-population-forecast-disagreement/621243/
The Next Century’s Big Demographic Mystery
RE
Post by: RE on February 03, 2022, 03:32:14 am
https://apnews.com/article/climate-africa-united-nations-kenya-ethiopia-b7d37c1501fbaddd2d7c80c80ed81a4e
Millions at risk as drought threatens the Horn of Africa
RE
Post by: RE on February 01, 2022, 12:22:46 am
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/russia-demographic-decline/
Russia’s demographic setback
RE
Post by: RE on January 31, 2022, 12:59:58 am
China’s draconian one-child policy has led to a disastrous baby bust
Post by: Phil Potts on January 24, 2022, 11:18:53 am
It's simple. Kids cost too much money. Women have to work at jobs that pay money. Staying home and raising kids doesn't pay money.
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-millennials-birth-fertility-rate-declining-fewer-babies-2022-1
5 reasons more millennials are choosing not to have children
RE
No cookies or paywall again. Lots and lots of articles lately on nothing to see here, that are important to get to you sponsored. Govts now directly funding media, making up for ever declining ratings. They need us to know its a nice steady decline in population of the kind we told Alan2021 he was an idiot to believe was reversing overpopulation.
If the labour shortage is due to people choosing to stay home and not work, living on govt benefits instead, that is made much easier by having children as it greatly increases the payments. For one parent it also removes the need to be trying to find work.
Or maybe with massive excess mortality, the labour shortage is at least partly a people shortage and a ten or twenty fold increase in the trend of fewer live births is also mostly explained by a physical phenomena affecting fertility. The number of intentional inseminations probably follows the same steady trajectory of baseline before 2021. It's accurate data on miscarriages and stillborn that we need.
Post by: RE on January 24, 2022, 09:14:26 am
https://www.businessinsider.com/why-millennials-birth-fertility-rate-declining-fewer-babies-2022-1
5 reasons more millennials are choosing not to have children
RE
Post by: RE on January 24, 2022, 02:50:35 am
Nothing but the dead and dying in Lisbon.
Portugal Historically low birth rate
https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2022-01-23/historically-low-birth-rate/64711
RE
Notice no cookies or paywalls for propaganda. There's nothing at all to back up the explanation they offer, figures on stillbirths and miscarriages are what we need to determine if that might be the reason. Only about 10% down from previous year and only 52.5% fully vxd from the figures.
This folllowins a trend going back decades in Europe and predates covid by a lot. 10% decline in 1 year is a lot.
(https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/graph_country.php?p=0&c=Portugal&i=Birth_rate)
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on January 24, 2022, 12:41:42 am
Nothing but the dead and dying in Lisbon.
Portugal Historically low birth rate
https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2022-01-23/historically-low-birth-rate/64711
RE
Notice no cookies or paywalls for propaganda. There's nothing at all to back up the explanation they offer, figures on stillbirths and miscarriages are what we need to determine if that might be the reason. Only about 10% down from previous year and only 52.5% fully vxd from the figures.
Post by: RE on January 24, 2022, 12:23:37 am
Portugal Historically low birth rate
https://www.theportugalnews.com/news/2022-01-23/historically-low-birth-rate/64711
RE
Post by: RE on January 22, 2022, 12:16:41 am
https://japantoday.com/category/features/kuchikomi/the-crisis-of-super-aging-%E2%80%93-how-can-japanese-society-cope
The crisis of super-aging – how can Japanese society cope?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c3GPjfv4UCU
RE
Post by: RE on January 20, 2022, 02:14:23 am
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/19/is-midnight-upon-us-doomsday-clock-panel-to-set-risk-of-global-catastrophe
RE
Post by: RE on January 20, 2022, 02:05:56 am
https://www.livemint.com/news/world/there-won-t-be-enough-people-for-mars-elon-musk-warns-about-population-collapse-see-posts-11642554956664.html
RE
Post by: RE on January 18, 2022, 06:33:39 am
https://en.as.com/en/2022/01/17/latest_news/1642434631_293097.html
Earth's sixth mass extinction has begun according to scientists
Those damn scientists. Maybe they actually know something?
Which scientists do you believe?
RE
Post by: RE on January 17, 2022, 12:19:39 am
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/chinas-birth-rate-at-record-low-in-2021/articleshow/88943082.cms
China's birth rate at record low in 2021
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on January 10, 2022, 05:18:59 pm
Nothing but the dead and dying in the land of the Rising Sun.
https://www.ft.com/content/9b2debce-60be-41ab-9427-37d209af1d66
Record low number of Japanese reach adulthood as demographic woes deepen
RE
Paywall, but I'm going to assume the headline is clickbait and the article doesn't detail a return to high levels of childhood mortality from famine and disease.
Post by: RE on January 10, 2022, 03:59:20 pm
https://www.ft.com/content/9b2debce-60be-41ab-9427-37d209af1d66
Record low number of Japanese reach adulthood as demographic woes deepen
RE
Post by: RE on January 08, 2022, 05:07:19 pm
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/first-colombian-with-non-terminal-illness-dies-legally-by-euthanasia-2022-01-08/
First Colombian with non-terminal illness dies legally by euthanasia
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on January 08, 2022, 12:53:29 am
https://www.theepochtimes.com/prime-age-mortality-up-40-percent-majority-not-covid-19_4196936.html
Prime Age Mortality up 40 Percent, Majority of Deaths Not From COVID-19
RE
Here's total death rate for US in perspective:
[attach=1]
Post by: RE on January 07, 2022, 10:11:56 pm
Prime Age Mortality up 40 Percent, Majority of Deaths Not From COVID-19
RE
Post by: RE on January 07, 2022, 02:52:05 pm
Bulgarian sees its population decline by 11.5% in a decade
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on January 05, 2022, 01:19:51 pm
My friends mother is one of those 3rd and 4th quarter statistics mentioned in the vid. 64 yrs old, died in hospital, pnuemonia as the cod. Tropical climate, healthy weight, living independently, vaxed.
CoD is becoming almost meaningless, since if you can't get into a hospital for treatment for something besides Covid, you die of that instead. We're never going to get accurate statistics here on the total current death rate.
RE
Also if you do go in for something else and test positive while there, it throws your own life as well as all your close contacts into turmoil. This is after effectively sacking about 20%
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.abc.net.au/article/100739828
I know of people who are meant to be quarantined because they've been in contact of someone who tested positive. Then they come and see me, saying they better just keep their distance and go wherever they want because they feel fine. There's no quarantine centre in my state I know of, but in other states people have been arrested and forced into a centre for two weeks doing that. Right now the current advice is no negative test is necessary and only 6 days of isolation before you carry on as normal if you have no symptoms. Will your employer wait for that, if they are not obliged to and can replace you?
Post by: RE on January 05, 2022, 12:12:57 pm
My friends mother is one of those 3rd and 4th quarter statistics mentioned in the vid. 64 yrs old, died in hospital, pnuemonia as the cod. Tropical climate, healthy weight, living independently, vaxed.
CoD is becoming almost meaningless, since if you can't get into a hospital for treatment for something besides Covid, you die of that instead. We're never going to get accurate statistics here on the total current death rate.
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on January 05, 2022, 11:18:49 am
I don't want to downplay the significance of this, but we need numbers to make sense of it. What % of 17-64 yr olds die annually in baseline years?My guess is that % is stable for most prior periods. Should be about 5/7ths of the current period.
Yeah that's what I mean by baseline, but the number figures are what we don't know. It could mean a 40% increase in 2021 over 10%, 1%, 0.1%, 0.01%, or 0.001% of 18-64 yr olds dying annually.
My friends mother is one of those 3rd and 4th quarter statistics mentioned in the vid. 64 yrs old, died in hospital, pnuemonia as the cod. Tropical climate, healthy weight, living independently, vaxed.
https://youtu.be/Mhy8JLVu5lY
Post by: moniker on January 04, 2022, 05:44:44 pm
I don't want to downplay the significance of this, but we need numbers to make sense of it. What % of 17-64 yr olds die annually in baseline years?My guess is that % is stable for most prior periods. Should be about 5/7ths of the current period.
Post by: Phil Potts on January 04, 2022, 02:12:44 pm
https://youtu.be/Op6kKQzAoxc
I don't want to downplay the significance of this, but we need numbers to make sense of it. What % of 17-64 yr olds die annually in baseline years?
Post by: moniker on January 03, 2022, 06:03:33 pm
Post by: RE on December 28, 2021, 03:06:32 am
https://cruxnow.com/vatican/2021/12/pope-decries-italys-demographic-winter-of-falling-birth-rates-family-size
Pope decries Italy’s ‘demographic winter’ of falling birth rates, family size
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on December 23, 2021, 10:56:34 pm
Post by: Phil Potts on December 23, 2021, 10:29:42 pm
I am not to be confused with someone who is highly educated but who is having to stoop to being a barista or something because they have no choice and are doing it just to get by. I am educated but better you confuse me with a man who is doing the **** he wants to do. The Trotsky in this bunch, I am. But now I have an employer and I am an employee.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're an engineer who can write code. My first suspicion would be ageism behind you not getting jobs you are over qualified for in your field.
It's a big problem, I know someone who is employed by a cement company as a casual through labour hire. He's been there a year on rates starting at 32$/hr then 40$ for time and a half and 50$ for double time. He often gets those long hours and high rates. A 12 hr shift nets him 450$. The labour hire company also takes a cut, so I'm guessing that 12 hr shift costs the cement company, at least 600$.
As a company driver he would be on about 27$ hr with no middle man expense. He's worked there for almost a year and never been late, with crazy hours like 4.30am starts at times and never screwed up yet. He informed the manager a week before his 6 month mark that released him from the obligation to the labour hire, that the company could hire him directly. Since then, 3 other cement trucks drivers were hired ahead of him. One being a female bus driver around his own age, and two men in their 30s. All had no previous experience driving cement trucks that involves at least two or three weeks extra training on top of the truck licensed they would have already had.
Why wasn't he hired instead for a permanent full time position? He's over 50.
There's that and some employers looking for the unicorn employee. He was unavailable from the cement company for a week, when he took a job driving a sewerage truck, literally pumping **** for 26$ hr. Not just septic tanks, but portaloos. He said doing septics, the pump motor still pushes air through the tank and the smell is unavoidable, also when emptying it out. It's also inside the cab of the truck, driving with windows up. Pumping out the portaloos, he had to lift up the toilet and shove the hose into a big pile of toilet paper, s.hit and p.iss and jiggle the hose up and down to get it into the hose so it doesn't block up. Literally **** work for a fully experienced truck driver. The owner gave him three strikes, out for these things: 1, suggesting they wash off the thick hose that had poop and toilet paper stuck to it. 2 not knowing about a short cut in an area right away. 3 missing 2 portaloos on a big berry farm. He's sure that was a misunderstanding and he had done them as he had been told about them when he was there. The truck owner said he had a call from the farm they were missed. He didn't get a chance to find out if he was right, they were the same ones he was told about and did, let go. No great loss, he's fine doing the cement truck work, as a casual. Maybe the pump truck owner will find a desperate immigrant willing to get face to face with piles of poopoo and breathe the smell of sewerage all day every day until something better comes up. I told him it's not worth it and be thankful he didn't get stuck with it.
At the end of the day, as long as the work you're getting is reasonable, it's better than nothing.
Post by: K-Dog on December 23, 2021, 10:04:26 pm
That said:
(https://nccdh.ca/images/uploads/Spirit_level_cover_image_from_Penguin.ca.png)
I read it.
Quote
Wilkinson and Pickett contend that people in more equal societies live longer, have better mental health and are more socially mobile. In this book they present the relationship between income inequality and a range of health and social issues, using data from the 23 richest countries and 50 US states. Using 11 measures of health and social development—among them physical and mental health, drug abuse, teenage pregnancies, and child wellbeing—the authors use scatter graphs to demonstrate that people are significantly worse off in more unequal countries or states. Importantly, the observed relationship is with economic inequality, not total wealth or average per-capita income.
Now, regarding being a wage slave. Their are people trapped in exploitative circumstances with employers who have no concept of this thing called a social contract. These people are too poor to quit their job to find better circumstances or they don't have mental horsepower to do anything but what they are doing. If their wages are too low for them to live a decent life and they are trapped and unable to quit they are a wage slave. They quit they starve. That is what makes them a slave. There is no way for them to save or find a way out.
A less stringent interpretation is to realize that any job that pays you by the hour is never but in a blue moon going to pay enough for you to live the life of what is commonly presented on American media as middle class.
We can't all be Dentists with millions in savings. If you are paid a wage you will not be able to stash a million in retirement savings unless you got into a place at exactly the right time. Being one of the first 100 employees at Costco for instance.
* I read the book and the premise is not speculation. The data proving the premise is real. But BFD. Science is no longer popular.
Post by: K-Dog on December 23, 2021, 08:29:20 pm
Life Expectancy - I feel mine declining every day.
Definitely important to retire by 66. Assuming you start working at 18, this gives you 48 years of wage slavery, and for males just 8 years of retirement before you hit 74 and croak, a 6:1 ratiio.
RE
Do you believe in wage slavery because that is what you considered yourself to be during your working years, or because it is more of an intellectual concept that you enjoy going on about?
Are those who work for a wage, and consider it fair compensation for the satisfaction and compensation they take from it, really wage slaves? Or just the slaves who live in da big house, and have it better?
Monday I start working part time at $19.50 an hour. Stock work in a retail establishment. I started collecting my social security several months ago. My savings are pale compared to the dentist in the article but at least I have some. Point being, while I will be collecting a wage. I am far from being a slave.
I have been stuck at home through the pandemic and now I have a job that I will not have to think about when I am not working. The pay is enough to make it worth my while and some physical activity within limits is good for me. It may be a good fit for now. The situation looks good. I'll give them good work and they treat me well. It is a friendly place. If it does not work out to be that way I can take the job and shove it.
I am not to be confused with someone who is highly educated but who is having to stoop to being a barista or something because they have no choice and are doing it just to get by. I am educated, but better you confuse me with a man who is doing the **** he wants to do. The Trotsky in this bunch, I am. But now I have an employer and I am an employee. I give them work they give me money. Mutual responsibilities. That would be true under any economic arrangement where money is paid. If I show up Monday and there is a picket line I won't cross it, but looks to be unlikely.
Post by: RE on December 23, 2021, 12:55:30 pm
Life Expectancy - I feel mine declining every day.
Definitely important to retire by 66. Assuming you start working at 18, this gives you 48 years of wage slavery, and for males just 8 years of retirement before you hit 74 and croak, a 6:1 ratiio. No wonder the Dentist wants to retire at 61. Hopefully he is not too **** whipped to do so. lol.
Having been forced into retirement at 55, I an now at 9 years and still counting. Of course I'm not playing golf, but at least I don't have to go to work anymore. It wasn't too bad either until last year. I at least got all the SS I paid into over my years of slavery. For however long I last and SS lasts, it's all gravy. :)
RE
Post by: K-Dog on December 23, 2021, 11:55:53 am
Post by: RE on December 23, 2021, 10:01:27 am
Life Expectancy in U.S. Declined 1.8 Years in 2020, CDC Says
RE
Post by: RE on December 21, 2021, 04:18:07 pm
wonder how much is just aging boomers retiring to somewhere warm. Florida is growing until a massive wave of snowbird boomers starts dying there.
Definitely in large part the decline is due to the outward migration of retiring boomers to the south. NYC is simply too expensive for most people to live on a retirement income. They'll die though soon enough, one place or the other. Miami isn't the greatest choice, since it's already flooding during King tides.
The issue is, without inward migration, where do they get replacements for the retiring slaves?
RE
Post by: Nearings fault on December 21, 2021, 03:13:57 pm
Nothing but the dead and dying in my Big Shity.I wonder how much is just aging boomers retiring to somewhere warm. Florida is growing until a massive wave of snowbird boomers starts dying there.
https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/politics/albany/2021/12/21/new-york-population-decline/8981869002/
A smaller Big Apple: New York continues to lead nation in population decline
At least there won't be so many people to relocate when it goes underwater.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/v-d5VDK5F1u4RAg9Eg7j1YbDi2BGPrf9wLjUYovdkdRJV85SrdN1hT43kAkE8S_z624W2flZz4duohRAjf0yo8CV82Jm-2yBb1m5YSEGja7R7XZh7vu_sk8fdyWDWEKyGGOQVBsL)
RE
Post by: RE on December 21, 2021, 01:36:07 pm
https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/news/politics/albany/2021/12/21/new-york-population-decline/8981869002/
A smaller Big Apple: New York continues to lead nation in population decline
At least there won't be so many people to relocate when it goes underwater.
(https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/v-d5VDK5F1u4RAg9Eg7j1YbDi2BGPrf9wLjUYovdkdRJV85SrdN1hT43kAkE8S_z624W2flZz4duohRAjf0yo8CV82Jm-2yBb1m5YSEGja7R7XZh7vu_sk8fdyWDWEKyGGOQVBsL)
RE
Post by: RE on December 13, 2021, 01:17:52 pm
RE
https://www.tribdem.com/news/living-realities-johnstowns-population-decline-amplifies-the-impact-of-widespread-section-8-housing/article_6740adce-53f4-11ec-a4fd-4702b4fb7039.html
Johnstown's population decline amplifies the impact of widespread Section 8 housing
Post by: RE on December 13, 2021, 01:04:16 pm
RE
https://nationalpost.com/news/world-population-forecasted-to-decline-for-the-first-time-in-centuries-study-says
World population forecast to decline for the first time in centuries
The last time that global population declined was in the mid 14th century, due to the Black Plague'
Post by: Phil Potts on December 12, 2021, 12:32:18 pm
It's ostensibly true they want to replace gas engines with electric ones because it's easier to shut off the electricity than to cut off the gas. If you start discontinuing gas production some people will get wise to what's going on and take evasive action, but when you turn off the lights everything goes dark in an instant. So to channel Evergrande and Hemingway, you will not go bankrupt in 2 stages-first gradually then all at once-but only all at once. And with Evergrande slow as mollasses.Does anyone know why Elon is playing the good cop now?
One can only guess, but clearly there are three problems for Elon.
1- fewer consumers of Teslas
2- Fewer slaves to build Teslas
3- Insufficient growth in sales to pay off his unbelievably deep well of debt
RE
But I think it's more likely he wants to appear to be nice so he can insert a chip into your brain while you are caught off guard.
He's Asperger's, so has a hard time not saying what he's thinking; such as us being cyborgs without knowing it, always online, more guarded but pointed remarks about covid, and simply stating the obvious on reproduction being necessary to a species survival.
I don't think it's the same as the Henry Ford business model for the masses, the cars are too expensive. It seems he sells dreams to investors and green solutions for govts needing to meet targets more than anything. Rides on a SpaceX rocket ship is a niche market. It remains to be seen how many people will still be driving in the future, I don't think it's going to be anywhere near as many as now. Tesla will probably be well placed to supply company managers and uber drivers.
Musk know what attracts attention. He is a showman. 'More humans' is controversial, an utterance that is pure Musk.
Relavant to the Neuralink Tower of Babel he is all in on with Bill:
https://www.corbettreport.com/nwnw20211209/
Post by: Nearings fault on December 12, 2021, 05:38:59 am
We've had right to die legislation for a while now. It's physician controlled. Originally it was for the terminally ill but it's recently been modified to cover euthanasia even if death is not foreseeable... I like that there are humans involved in the process.No controversy to me. Put the inventor in and fasten the door. With no way out after a few days he will push the button.
Then burn the machine with him inside. Destroy all the plans and suppress all mention of the invention for all time.
Where is the controversy? Just go Stalin on his ass.
You don''t think people should have the right to kill themselves as painlessly as possible? Even terminally ill people in horrible pain?
RE
Of sound mind and body is a minimum requirement. O person clinically depressed can lie on the questionnaire. They will be found not to be ****-up and get a code. People who don't have their brains working right can get a code. You have been seduced by technology. A decision like this has to be decided by humans who can weigh in on a persons mental state. No **** software involved.
I find the inventor guilty of pre-crime and sentence him to death.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fsc02.alicdn.com%2Fkf%2FHTB1gCoXcQfb_uJkSne1762E4XXaF%2F225286798%2FHTB1gCoXcQfb_uJkSne1762E4XXaF.png&f=1&nofb=1)
Silicone not 4me. You know I like the real thing. Some things have to stay human.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euthanasia_in_Canada#:~:text=Suicide%20was%20decriminalized%20in%20Canada,criminal%20prohibition%20was%20struck%20down.
Post by: UnhingedBecauseLucid on December 12, 2021, 04:20:30 am
Musk know what attracts attention. He is a showman. 'More humans' is controversial, an utterance that is pure Musk.
[/quote]
I think he was trying to be as least controversial as he could possibly be because what he probably really meant to say is that civilization will crumble if more specialized cogs aren't educated in time to fill all the roles the tech tree requires to stay smoothly functional...
Post by: K-Dog on December 11, 2021, 12:39:06 pm
It's ostensibly true they want to replace gas engines with electric ones because it's easier to shut off the electricity than to cut off the gas. If you start discontinuing gas production some people will get wise to what's going on and take evasive action, but when you turn off the lights everything goes dark in an instant. So to channel Evergrande and Hemingway, you will not go bankrupt in 2 stages-first gradually then all at once-but only all at once. And with Evergrande slow as mollasses.Does anyone know why Elon is playing the good cop now?
One can only guess, but clearly there are three problems for Elon.
1- fewer consumers of Teslas
2- Fewer slaves to build Teslas
3- Insufficient growth in sales to pay off his unbelievably deep well of debt
RE
But I think it's more likely he wants to appear to be nice so he can insert a chip into your brain while you are caught off guard.
He's Asperger's, so has a hard time not saying what he's thinking; such as us being cyborgs without knowing it, always online, more guarded but pointed remarks about covid, and simply stating the obvious on reproduction being necessary to a species survival.
I don't think it's the same as the Henry Ford business model for the masses, the cars are too expensive. It seems he sells dreams to investors and green solutions for govts needing to meet targets more than anything. Rides on a SpaceX rocket ship is a niche market. It remains to be seen how many people will still be driving in the future, I don't think it's going to be anywhere near as many as now. Tesla will probably be well placed to supply company managers and uber drivers.
Musk know what attracts attention. He is a showman. 'More humans' is controversial, an utterance that is pure Musk.
Post by: K-Dog on December 11, 2021, 12:32:20 pm
No controversy to me. Put the inventor in and fasten the door. With no way out after a few days he will push the button.
Then burn the machine with him inside. Destroy all the plans and suppress all mention of the invention for all time.
Where is the controversy? Just go Stalin on his ass.
You don''t think people should have the right to kill themselves as painlessly as possible? Even terminally ill people in horrible pain?
RE
Of sound mind and body is a minimum requirement. O person clinically depressed can lie on the questionnaire. They will be found not to be ****-up and get a code. People who don't have their brains working right can get a code. You have been seduced by technology. A decision like this has to be decided by humans who can weigh in on a persons mental state. No **** software involved.
I find the inventor guilty of pre-crime and sentence him to death.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fsc02.alicdn.com%2Fkf%2FHTB1gCoXcQfb_uJkSne1762E4XXaF%2F225286798%2FHTB1gCoXcQfb_uJkSne1762E4XXaF.png&f=1&nofb=1)
Silicone not 4me. You know I like the real thing. Some things have to stay human.
Post by: Phil Potts on December 10, 2021, 10:27:50 am
It's ostensibly true they want to replace gas engines with electric ones because it's easier to shut off the electricity than to cut off the gas. If you start discontinuing gas production some people will get wise to what's going on and take evasive action, but when you turn off the lights everything goes dark in an instant. So to channel Evergrande and Hemingway, you will not go bankrupt in 2 stages-first gradually then all at once-but only all at once. And with Evergrande slow as mollasses.Does anyone know why Elon is playing the good cop now?
One can only guess, but clearly there are three problems for Elon.
1- fewer consumers of Teslas
2- Fewer slaves to build Teslas
3- Insufficient growth in sales to pay off his unbelievably deep well of debt
RE
But I think it's more likely he wants to appear to be nice so he can insert a chip into your brain while you are caught off guard.
He's Asperger's, so has a hard time not saying what he's thinking; such as us being cyborgs without knowing it, always online, more guarded but pointed remarks about covid, and simply stating the obvious on reproduction being necessary to a species survival.
I don't think it's the same as the Henry Ford business model for the masses, the cars are too expensive. It seems he sells dreams to investors and green solutions for govts needing to meet targets more than anything. Rides on a SpaceX rocket ship is a niche market. It remains to be seen how many people will still be driving in the future, I don't think it's going to be anywhere near as many as now. Tesla will probably be well placed to supply company managers and uber drivers.
Post by: Phil Potts on December 10, 2021, 09:59:29 am
Balancing the books is for the little people.
And doing data is for the analytical people. ;D I mean really, are we not thinking doomers, rather than propaganda swilling and spewing charlatans? Are we fact oriented, or do we just say things that aren't true and hope our doomer buddies don't call us on it? The condition of humanity in general was advanced by one crowd, the other turned into the Church, unthinkingly humming the mantra and reciting the dogma as we are ordered by the priests?
We are not. Individuals may be, if they belong to some affiliation advancing an agenda. Govt is the most obvious.
Tesla posted losses for years and made a profit last year not through sales of cars, but through Bitcoin and the other auto manufacturers needing to buy % electric car credits from Tesla. Just finally turning a profit without being profitable after being built on govt handouts, apparently also funnelled into Bitcoin, was enough to see the type of religious devotees you're talking about take it's share price from the floor to the sky. The same type of devotees who would not go near a car with horrendous customer support, that had a history of bursting into flames, locked the driver inside, crashed on its own and had cheap interior plastic, if it was not a marque of being environmentally responsible.
Post by: moniker on December 09, 2021, 07:46:39 pm
That is a lot to parse. The root of the problem is that humans use language to describe reality, but reality is also created by language.Balancing the books is for the little people.
And doing data is for the analytical people. ;D I mean really, are we not thinking doomers, rather than propaganda swilling and spewing charlatans? Are we fact oriented, or do we just say things that aren't true and hope our doomer buddies don't call us on it? The condition of humanity in general was advanced by one crowd, the other turned into the Church, unthinkingly humming the mantra and reciting the dogma as we are ordered by the priests?
Post by: moniker on December 09, 2021, 06:03:37 pm
Balancing the books is for the little people.Does anyone know why Elon is playing the good cop now?
One can only guess, but clearly there are three problems for Elon.
1- fewer consumers of Teslas
2- Fewer slaves to build Teslas
3- Insufficient growth in sales to pay off his unbelievably deep well of debt
RE
Tesla debt sits at about less than $12 billion. (https://cleantechnica.com/2021/07/22/analysis-tesla-has-much-less-debt-than-ford-gm-much-higher-gross-margin/#:~:text=In%20February%202021%2C%20Benzinga%20published,%242.13%20billion%20in%20current%20debt.) Elon could sell some shares in the company and pay it off if he wished. Market cap is 1 trillion dollars (as in..one TRILLION). So, let us say my average income from social security is $20G a year...my equivalent percentage of debt would be...$240. oh...the horror of the debt...
Ford and GM have 5X-10X Tesla's debt. And smaller market cap.
More data for everyone!!
Post by: moniker on December 09, 2021, 04:37:27 pm
It's ostensibly true they want to replace gas engines with electric ones because it's easier to shut off the electricity than to cut off the gas. If you start discontinuing gas production some people will get wise to what's going on and take evasive action, but when you turn off the lights everything goes dark in an instant. So to channel Evergrande and Hemingway, you will not go bankrupt in 2 stages-first gradually then all at once-but only all at once. And with Evergrande slow as mollasses.Does anyone know why Elon is playing the good cop now?
One can only guess, but clearly there are three problems for Elon.
1- fewer consumers of Teslas
2- Fewer slaves to build Teslas
3- Insufficient growth in sales to pay off his unbelievably deep well of debt
RE
But I think it's more likely he wants to appear to be nice so he can insert a chip into your brain while you are caught off guard.
Post by: RE on December 09, 2021, 02:52:26 pm
Does anyone know why Elon is playing the good cop now?
One can only guess, but clearly there are three problems for Elon.
1- fewer consumers of Teslas
2- Fewer slaves to build Teslas
3- Insufficient growth in sales to pay off his unbelievably deep well of debt
RE
Post by: moniker on December 09, 2021, 02:16:13 pm
Elon will not have enough people to sell Teslas to. He's a Population Doomer! lolDoes anyone know why Elon is playing the good cop now?
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/07/elon-musk-civilization-will-crumble-if-we-dont-have-more-children.html
Elon Musk says ‘civilization is going to crumble’ if people don’t have more children
RE
Post by: RE on December 09, 2021, 12:51:05 pm
No controversy to me. Put the inventor in and fasten the door. With no way out after a few days he will push the button.
Then burn the machine with him inside. Destroy all the plans and suppress all mention of the invention for all time.
Where is the controversy? Just go Stalin on his ass.
You don''t think people should have the right to kill themselves as painlessly as possible? Even terminally ill people in horrible pain?
RE
Post by: K-Dog on December 09, 2021, 11:55:37 am
Then burn the machine with him inside. Destroy all the plans and suppress all mention of the invention for all time.
Where is the controversy? Just go Stalin on his ass.
Post by: RE on December 07, 2021, 10:27:18 pm
https://nypost.com/2021/12/07/controversial-suicide-pod-that-kills-peacefully-gets-go-ahead-in-switzerland/
Controversial ‘suicide pod’ that ‘kills peacefully’ gets go-ahead in Switzerland
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0side9z8qM&t=105s
RE
Post by: RE on December 07, 2021, 06:25:52 am
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/07/elon-musk-civilization-will-crumble-if-we-dont-have-more-children.html
Elon Musk says ‘civilization is going to crumble’ if people don’t have more children
RE
Post by: RE on December 06, 2021, 12:20:33 am
The declining U.S. birthrate comes as no surprise
Post by: RE on December 05, 2021, 12:47:55 am
If china is faking 100m , the rest of the world could be faking another half a billion if the same rate applies.
You have to remember all population figures are estimates. Much like Voting, records can be double counted. In rural areas, people still do have babies at home. The local goobermint estimates a number and sends that number to the Provincial goobermint, which then sends it to the National goobermint which then sends it to the UN.
A census is generally done every 10 years, and for this in developed countries they temporarily hire workers to go out and survey areas. This however is still just an estimate, because not everyone gets surveyed. I have never even filled out a census form, much less had a direct interview with a census taker. It's a costly business to try to cross check all the records, even if they have been accurately counted.
In places like Nigeria or Libya, how accurate do you think those figures are? China's are probably more accurate then most places, but it still behooves every level of goobermint to over estimate the numbers.
The point here is though, we know fertility rates and reproduction are dropping, most in cities in the developed world but really just about everywhere. It would not surprise me at all if the global population of Homo Saps is overcounted by half a billion.
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on December 04, 2021, 10:25:55 pm
I have been suspect of Population Data and estimates for quite some time, and the numbers are starting to trickle out that confirm this. There are huge incentives for local goobermints to overstate their population, because all estimates for economic growth are based on this. Dieoff on a global basis actually probably began around a decade ago when I first questioned these estimates.
The numbers are increasing and have beccome harder to hide. Not only China has admitted it with cancellation of the 1 child policy, the UN admits it also.
A few questions still remain of course.
* How long will it take?
* How far down will it go?
* How will the economic system adjust to shrinkage?
* How will this affect our daily lives and standard of living?
* What actions will be taken by goobermints?
* What actions will be taken by populations?
There are many other questions of course, but this is sufficient for conversation.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/researcher-questions-chinas-population-data-says-it-may-be-lower-2021-12-03/
Researcher questions China's population data, says it may be lower
RE
So just like Australia having the same average age as china does not cause western media to report on adult diapers almost outselling baby ones, lots of benefits in payments, leave, and reduced tax don't also cause suspicion of inflated population numbers here.
As if there isn't penalty for fraud in china using a fake birth certificate to collect benefits and it would be easy to get away with. Child nurse visits? Vax record? School enrolment? Taxes when these fake people created in the last 5 yrs grow up? Also everyone doing that remembered their fake child on census night. No mention of how many people Chu thinks have done that.
No mention of what Yi from Wisconsin bases his estimate of 100m fake people on except that ethnic minorities that did not have a 1 child policy also had fertility drop. Very negligent not to provide numbers there.
Obviously the rest of the world doesn't have a 1 child policy either, so that means nothing if the same rising standard of living associated happened.
This article says 1 child policy was dropped in 2016, elsewhere I've seen it as 2015. China then wanted to reduce population until either 2015 or 2016.
The real question is what caused the 20% drop in fertility in the last 2 yrs, leading them to change to allowing 3.
If china is faking 100m , the rest of the world could be faking another half a billion if the same rate applies.
Post by: RE on December 04, 2021, 06:41:55 pm
The numbers are increasing and have beccome harder to hide. Not only China has admitted it with cancellation of the 1 child policy, the UN admits it also.
A few questions still remain of course.
* How long will it take?
* How far down will it go?
* How will the economic system adjust to shrinkage?
* How will this affect our daily lives and standard of living?
* What actions will be taken by goobermints?
* What actions will be taken by populations?
There are many other questions of course, but this is sufficient for conversation.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/researcher-questions-chinas-population-data-says-it-may-be-lower-2021-12-03/
Researcher questions China's population data, says it may be lower
RE
Post by: RE on December 03, 2021, 02:17:56 am
Goobermints all over the world are now trying to "incentivize" childbearing. More maternity leave, subsidised childcare etc. But this isn't working too well. We're not breeding enough new slaves! So let's force every woman who gets preggers to have the baby!
Now, assuming here in the FSoA this legal revision goes through, how many additional slaves will we get out of this each year?
(https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fcdn.statcdn.com%2FInfographic%2Fimages%2Fnormal%2F19490.jpeg&hash=f4d9f60ec4fe2b03bff4996708ef42c0a16e34d8)
(https://www.economist.com/img/b/1000/590/90/media-assets/image/20211002_WOC513.png)
Unfortunately not enough, because not enough women are getting preggers to begin with, so fewer need abortions!
So obviously, we need mandatory pregnancy. If you don't get pregnant after graduating from HS in the usual way because your boyfriend's penys is too small to find,, you will be forcibly injected with sperm to get you pregnant. USDA approved sperm of course.
Children of Men is here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VT2apoX90o
RE
Post by: RE on December 01, 2021, 03:20:00 pm
I saw that report on the diapers, it's projected for 2025. This probably DEPENDS on their life expectancy catching up further to the avg life expectancy in western countries. That often involves what is effectively artificial life support.
I just go ogled mean age china (38.9) vs mean age Australia (37.9). They will not report that we would then use a similar amount of adult diapers.
I don't know what everyone else sees around them, but it's clear to me that most white people are middle aged or boomers. If you see a pregnant woman, she's most likely to be an immigrant. Take out first generation immigrants from the equation and China would have far younger demographics and higher birth rate. They need to catch up to us on rates of feminism, divorce and LGBTQ to have an organic cultural sterilization. They are about the only country in the world with a higher ratio of female suicide to male (and that would be the very poor women). Ours are about 5:1 the other way.
Despite that, an 18% plunge from 2019 points to an environmental exposure, probably not sinovac, more likely 5G and 6G.
I have been observing the demographic changes in the population for years.
The first one I noticed was the appearance of so many more fat people. Then stores started popping up with clothing just for them.
Then I noticed when flying that the stewardesses were all getting older. Same with the register people at the grocery store. Used to be mostly young girls, now mostly old folks.
Being in the system myself now, I notice how many more "senior living" places there are. The Death Warehouses are everywhere around here. A whole industry has built up around this, staffed also by generally old folks as well.
Kids seem almost non existent, though occasionaly you see one in a store with parents.
Alaska gets little in the way of immigration, one of the reasons population declined here last year.
So now goobermints are trying to "incentivize" reproduction, with virtually no success. There simply are not enough people of reproductive age who even want to have kids. Eddie has 4 kids, but no grandkids. Kids are expensive and time consuming. By the time you finish school in your 30s, nobody wants them.
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on December 01, 2021, 11:21:58 am
Also, China is now producing more adult diapers than baby diapers.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/01/china/china-birthrate-2020-mic-intl-hnk/index.html
China's birthrate just hit another record low. But the worst is yet to come
RE
I saw that report on the diapers, it's projected for 2025. This probably DEPENDS on their life expectancy catching up further to the avg life expectancy in western countries. That often involves what is effectively artificial life support.
I just go ogled mean age china (38.9) vs mean age Australia (37.9). They will not report that we would then use a similar amount of adult diapers.
I don't know what everyone else sees around them, but it's clear to me that most white people are middle aged or boomers. If you see a pregnant woman, she's most likely to be an immigrant. Take out first generation immigrants from the equation and China would have far younger demographics and higher birth rate. They need to catch up to us on rates of feminazism, divorce and transgender to have an organic cultural sterilization. They are about the only country in the world with a higher ratio of female suicide to male (and that would be the very poor women). Ours are about 5:1 the other way.
Despite that, an 18% plunge from 2019 points to an environmental exposure, probably not sinovac, more likely 5G and 6G.
Post by: RE on December 01, 2021, 06:50:55 am
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/01/china/china-birthrate-2020-mic-intl-hnk/index.html
China's birthrate just hit another record low. But the worst is yet to come
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on November 30, 2021, 12:02:08 am
Obsolete video going only to 2019. Serbia has 25% increase in deaths in 2021 over 2020 for January to October.
Portugal was one of the lowest birth rates in EU and has over 7% lower births for September 2021 over September 2020. Compared to September 2019 it's closer to 10%.
This is just getting started. Expect about 50% more death and 15-20% lower births in 2022 than 2019 for western countries.
https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-us/vesti/20211125-zivorodjeni-i-umrli-januar-oktobar-2021/
Not obsolete, just not up to date on the latest figures. Also, while you get regular updates from Europe, what's going on in Africa, The Middle East, India and SE Asia?
One factoid I found interesting mentioned in the video is that Penises are shrinking! This was newz to me. I knew about lower sperm counts and fertility rates, but I did not know that penises are shrinking in physical size. :o **** Collapse! Bad newz for the **** industry. lol
https://www.health.com/condition/infertility/****-size-shrinking-pollution#main-content
RE
I searched Kenya as an example. About 1.8m births in both 2021 and 2020. Deaths 430k for 2021 and 460k for 2020, but there's still a month to go.
Big countries might vary by state or district:
https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/other/no-groceries-fuel-for-those-not-vaccinated-says-aurangabad-administration/ar-AAQxlW5.
Post by: RE on November 29, 2021, 11:15:59 pm
Obsolete video going only to 2019. Serbia has 25% increase in deaths in 2021 over 2020 for January to October.
Portugal was one of the lowest birth rates in EU and has over 7% lower births for September 2021 over September 2020. Compared to September 2019 it's closer to 10%.
This is just getting started. Expect about 50% more death and 15-20% lower births in 2022 than 2019 for western countries.
https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-us/vesti/20211125-zivorodjeni-i-umrli-januar-oktobar-2021/
Not obsolete, just not up to date on the latest figures. Also, while you get regular updates from Europe, what's going on in Africa, The Middle East, India and SE Asia?
One factoid I found interesting mentioned in the video is that Penises are shrinking! This was newz to me. I knew about lower sperm counts and fertility rates, but I did not know that penises are shrinking in physical size. :o Kock Kollapse! Bad newz for the purno industry. lol
https://www.health.com/condition/infertility/****-size-shrinking-pollution#main-content
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on November 29, 2021, 08:28:00 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbLf9ne119w
Which countries have declining populations?
RE
Obsolete video going only to 2019. Serbia has 25% increase in deaths in 2021 over 2020 for January to October.
Portugal was one of the lowest birth rates in EU and has over 7% lower births for September 2021 over September 2020. Compared to September 2019 it's closer to 10%.
This is just getting started. Expect about 50% more death and 15-20% lower births in 2022 than 2019 for western countries.
https://www.stat.gov.rs/en-us/vesti/20211125-zivorodjeni-i-umrli-januar-oktobar-2021/
Post by: RE on November 29, 2021, 04:12:35 pm
Which countries have declining populations?
RE
Post by: RE on November 26, 2021, 09:02:19 am
https://www.observertoday.com/news/page-one/2021/11/pennsylvania-senses-urgency-with-population/
Pennsylvania senses urgency with population
RE
Post by: RE on November 24, 2021, 01:31:07 am
Infographic: The 100 most polluted cities in the world
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/22/infographic-the-worlds-100-most-polluted-cities-interactive
RE
Post by: RE on November 23, 2021, 03:20:21 am
https://www.heraldscotland.com/business_hq/19733243.colin-mclean-population-shock-store-unless-challenge-tackled/
Population shock in store unless challenge tackled
The demographic problem is much like climate change. It's a "slow mover" beyond the horizon of what the human lifespan and brain tend to think about. In this article, the author still sees the real problems not for another 50-80 years down the road. However, the labor shortages are already here. The increasing economic burden of old people is already here.
Most of us recognize the planet is over populated with Homo Saps, and population reduction must come and will come, but is there any way to actually manage the problem?
It seems to me that the issue is that birth rates are falling rather than death rates rising. That leaves you with more old people. We need higher death rates among the old people! Especially Politicians! lol. Biden...old. Trump...old. CONgress is like a Senior Citizens center! How many of these crones are over 70?
Forget Forced Vaxx. We need Forced Euthanasia at 70! lol. What a vast supply of Fertilizer we have stored up in our geriatric population!
Well, even without the forced euthanasia, the next 20 years will see a huge dieoff of Boomers. It remains to be seen when critical mass is achieved, and there just aren't enough truck drivers graduating HS to move the shyt around anymore.
RE
Post by: RE on November 23, 2021, 01:36:41 am
China’s Record-Low Birth Rate Underscores Population Challenges
Post by: RE on November 22, 2021, 04:30:30 am
https://mercatornet.com/on-the-brink-of-collapse-americas-declining-population-growth/71966/
Post by: RE on November 19, 2021, 08:29:02 pm
Inside Delhi’s air pollution crisis
https://www.theguardian.com/science/audio/2021/nov/18/inside-delhis-air-pollution-crisis
RE
Post by: RE on November 19, 2021, 12:18:05 am
In major shift, Japan looks to allow more foreign workers to stay indefinitely
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2021/11/18/national/japan-indefinite-visas/
RE
Post by: RE on November 17, 2021, 06:41:20 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7lU8vunDuA
RE
Post by: monsta666 on November 17, 2021, 03:29:13 pm
Post by: monsta666 on November 15, 2021, 04:25:35 pm
In any case making the right call is the easy bit but getting the timing right is exceedingly difficult. A fools game if I am being honest. I do know a die off will happen but when it happens and on what trajectory is still an open question. I do go for a quick collapse as the issues of peak oil, financial contagion and global warming all have a certain synergy with one another. For example if energy prices get too high our economies will breakdown reducing our ability to mitigate climate change or acquire other critical communities such as water, food and soil replenishment through fertilisers.
How are we going to call which limiting factor strikes first and when? Hard to say and it will be even tricker to determine how that limiting factor will impact other vital systems. But my feeling is a tipping point will come and we will experience a series of cascading failures that will bring everything down fairly rapidly. The longer things drag on the more dramatic the collapse will be for each system will closer to its breaking point. That is my theory any way... But who knows, I could be wrong maybe we will see some extraordinary events that postpone the day of judgement on some level or cushion the blow on some level. We got some very clever minds out there and they do say a crisis is the mother of innovation and radical ideas.
Post by: Digwe Must on November 15, 2021, 12:35:41 pm
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2021/11/15/us-monitoring-space-debris-reports-russia-shooting-satellite/
https://spacenews.com/russia-destroys-satellite-in-asat-test/
LAS VEGAS — A Russian satellite broke up in low Earth orbit in a deliberate test of a Russian antisatellite device that created thousands of pieces of debris.
The satellite, Cosmos-1408, appears to have broken up late Nov. 14 or early Nov. 15 Eastern time, based on commercial and government tracking data. The satellite, weighing about 2,000 kilograms, was launched in 1982 and, now defunct, was last tracked in an orbit about 485 kilometers high.
State Department spokesman Ned Price confirmed the satellite was destroyed by an ASAT. “The Russian Federation recklessly conducted a destructive satellite test of a direct-ascent antisatellite missile against one of its own satellites,” he said at a Nov. 15 State Department briefing. “The test has so far generated over 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris and hundreds of thousands of pieces of smaller orbital debris that now threaten the interests of all nations.”
He added that the test “will significantly increase the risk to astronauts and cosmonauts on the International Space Station, as well as to other human spaceflight activities.”
Post by: Digwe Must on November 15, 2021, 10:02:23 am
I'm focussing on explanation for this forecast:
https://nobulart.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Deagel-2025-Forecast-by-Country.pdf
It's on the horizon
If it was a nuke strike it's only one way, as you see Russia and China are not included in the major population reductions. You would think it out of the question that NATO would not strike back though. Oz has no nukes to strike back, but recently china explicitly said we are now a nuke target. That by dropping the submarine contract from France, for nuke subs from the US.
NATO warns Russia over Ukraine military build-up
BRUSSELS, Nov 15 (Reuters) - NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned Russia on Monday that the western military alliance was standing by Ukraine amid a large and unusual concentration of Russian troops on Ukraine's borders.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-warns-russia-over-ukraine-military-build-up-2021-11-15/
Ukraine: NATO alarmed by Russian troop buildup on border
https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-nato-alarmed-by-russian-troop-buildup-on-border/a-59823017
Ukraine has estimated that as many 100,000 Russian troops are present in the border area, which Stoltenberg called "dangerous."
"We see an unusual concentration of troops, and we know that Russia has been willing to use these types of military capabilities before to conduct aggressive actions against Ukraine," the NATO chief said.
CIA director dispatched to Moscow to warn Russia over troop buildup near Ukraine
"... Tensions between Ukraine and Russia have also been exacerbated in recent weeks by a deepening Ukrainian energy crisis that Kiev believes Moscow has purposefully provoked.
"The buildup, coupled with the energy blackmail, does suggest a more aggressive Russian posture," an adviser to Zelensky told CNN.
https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/05/politics/bill-burns-moscow-ukraine/index.html
Satellite images show new Russian military buildup near Ukraine
https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/01/satellite-russia-ukraine-military-518337
Post by: Phil Potts on November 14, 2021, 02:16:05 pm
I'm focussing on explanation for this forecast:
https://nobulart.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Deagel-2025-Forecast-by-Country.pdf
It's on the horizon
Okay. So, at first I thought this was just nuts. I looked up this organization and have now come to a WTF is this frame of mind. They seem to have a great many assessments of ordinance and weaponry capacity and sales that others assess as accurate. Who are these guys? Why has some of their stuff been taken down? I see other sites that contend that Deagel has updated their forecast regarding nuclear war. Others say this forecast is covid related and that the countries with vac manufacturing will suffer worst. Some are comparing this outfit to Stratfor. Of course some are saying this is CIA bs. What do you make of all this?
They certainly seem legit to me. Nobody can independently compile the sort of reporting and analysis they are doing without it being paid for by the MIC.
That's released 2017, the sort of thing they deal with in procurements and orders for equipment can tell them at that time. Assuming these are not made up, they can be looked up and verified if anyone wants to take the time and effort.
[attachimg=1]
[attachimg=2]
[attachimg=3]
When that forecast caught attention and created some stir in these type of circles, Deagel said it would be net migration out of the western world as the main cause of the population losses. They later removed it altogether. There's definitely good reason to emigrate now for anyone who can and something like 55'000 families have left here already this year. It's not easy, unless you have plenty of money or are a citizen somewhere else.
I can't answer what the reason or reasons are for it, but when I see things that fit it, it fills the picture at least in part. For a few years the shutting down of dairy farms and water rights of farmers here in Oz when the rivers are full not empty, only made sense if there was going to be a lot less people. I saw something similar just recently in the US:
https://modernfarmer.com/2021/11/northeast-organic-dairy-farmers-danone/
As you know, and the map in the previous post shows, covid is rising in waves in the most vaxd places. Maybe this is because of it being obsolete and not updated while the virus mutates. Then there's definitely some impact on miscarriages going on, infertility is an open question, that's going to contribute to population decline.
But realistically, none of those; covid at its current rate, emigration, and drop in births of even 50% would account for more than maybe 5-10% drop in population in 3 yrs. It's hard to imagine the empty shelves and high prices problem going to the point of starvation. What it certainly can do is lower a lot of peoples health, making them more susceptible. If it was a nuke strike it's only one way, as you see Russia and China are not included in the major population reductions. You would think it out of the question that NATO would not strike back though. Oz has no nukes to strike back, but recently china explicitly said we are now a nuke target. That by dropping the submarine contract from France, for nuke subs from the US.
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: K-Dog on November 13, 2021, 09:49:35 pm
Trending now on Twitter: Celibacy
The latest sex and dating trend? Celibacy.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/health-wellness/2021/11/12/celibacy-emerging-dating-and-wellness-trend-experts-weigh-in/6373269001/?gnt-cfr=1
RE
I read it. I think it sucks. A man has to control his passions. No question about that. A man does not go where he is not wanted. But pretending I don't want anything? Puck that.
I'll put out the idea that all the people who claim celibacy enlightens are full of ****. Personally it makes me lonely and crazy. They is no pathway that could lead to enlightenment and if you think so try a bed of nails.
https://youtu.be/4dOsbsuhYGQ
Post by: K-Dog on November 13, 2021, 09:29:07 pm
Quote
I was a pothead myself from 18-20, smoking with countless people, many who smoked every day. Ive known others since who smoke daily and never saw or heard about a heart attack in any one of them. A lot of them smoked a lot of cigarettes as well.
Eyes zam a pothead 20-66. A pot shop I go to is named 'Have a Heart'. My ticker seems OK. RE can vouch for the fact that I am a stoner.
Well sort of, after so many years it hits me about as hard as a cup of coffee. And since I don't drink alcohol, in a strange way my ass is about as pure as the driven snow. I quit drinking early in my life. I liked it too much and I knew it was not good for people. I made a decision.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.tenor.com%2Fimages%2F94ce5bbfcd9773ba5297941d67f4da07%2Ftenor.gif&f=1&nofb=1)
Post by: Digwe Must on November 13, 2021, 08:19:35 pm
I'm focussing on explanation for this forecast:
https://nobulart.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Deagel-2025-Forecast-by-Country.pdf
It's on the horizon
Okay. So, at first I thought this was just nuts. I looked up this organization and have now come to a WTF is this frame of mind. They seem to have a great many assessments of ordinance and weaponry capacity and sales that others assess as accurate. Who are these guys? Why has some of their stuff been taken down? I see other sites that contend that Deagel has updated their forecast regarding nuclear war. Others say this forecast is covid related and that the countries with vac manufacturing will suffer worst. Some are comparing this outfit to Stratfor. Of course some are saying this is CIA bs. What do you make of all this?
The Israeli chart is ugly, but even there you do not get a good global picture.
Where do you NOT get much in the way of stats from? The really poor countries. Do we know what is going on right now in the Congo or Nigeria in Africa? How about Iran or Turkey in the Middle East? What about Mongolia and Myanmar in Asia? What is happening in Columbia and Venezuela in South America?
There are whole swaths of the earth with large populations very little information escapes from. These are the populations most likely to dieoff first and biggest.
And the information that does come out usually benefits an agenda that may not be conducive to revealing truth. And I think you are correct about a collective indifference on the part of the comfortable.
When Covid first started to spread there was much speculation that central Africa would be devastated. They have bad general health and poor healthcare. However, as it turned out, so many people in those countries have parasitic disease that a tremendous percentage of the population takes Ivermectin. Covid did not ravage these countries.
As food becomes more expensive (even if that were the only stressor) I expect the general health of the world's human population to decline. Given all the other factors, here and approaching, the decline will accelerate. Seneca cliff.
But I have no clue what the forecast Phil Potts posted is about. I'd like to know what it is based on. Audacious. This gets to the poll question you asked about human pop in 2030.
Post by: Phil Potts on November 13, 2021, 02:16:16 pm
This chart from Israel is frightening. Is this getting much attention from official circles? Jeez.
The Israeli chart is ugly, but even there you do not get a good global picture.
Where do you NOT get much in the way of stats from? The really poor countries. Do we know what is going on right now in the Congo or Nigeria in Africa? How about Iran or Turkey in the Middle East? What about Mongolia and Myanmar in Asia? What is happening in Columbia and Venezuela in South America?
There are whole swaths of the earth with large populations very little information escapes from. These are the populations most likely to dieoff first and biggest.
Like the litany of other species facing extinction though, these populations of Homo Sap simply don't matter. As long as YOUR lights are still on and you have heat and food to eat, who cares? What, me worry?
In the words of Martin Niemoller:
(https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/images/large/fb09c57e-f2fb-4c52-896d-b9c0e022fc25.jpg.pagespeed.ce.Ygi6CUuHUQ.jpg)
You should worry. They will come for you also.
RE
I'm focussing on explanation for this forecast:
https://nobulart.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Deagel-2025-Forecast-by-Country.pdf
It's on the horizon
[attachimg=1]
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: Phil Potts on November 13, 2021, 01:30:47 pm
Well if the chart I posted showing 45% increase in deaths for 15-18 yr oldsmobiles of both sexes and 65% increase for boysenberries only in UK in 2021 was passe because;
https://www.heart.org/en/news/2021/11/08/cannabis-use-disorder-may-be-linked-to-growing-number-of-heart-attacks-in-younger-adults
here is all cause mortality 2021 for canary in the coal mine Israel.
2nd last column is raw number (Remember it's only about 8m people). Last column is % above average (from 2015-2019). It only goes to week 36, late Sept.
Good post PP.
"Because the study is observational and didn't control for use of other substances such as tobacco, alcohol or coke, the research can't be used to show a direct cause. What's needed, Page said, is a large, long-term study that follows people over time to determine if cannabis use can be definitively linked to heart attacks, and if so, the impact of the frequency of use and how the cannabis is consumed."
Well, this is interesting, PP. When finally doing a definitive study they should also control for obesity, lack of exercise, lack of sunshine, fertility, crap food and addiction to electronics and social media. I've never known anyone who had a heart attack from pot. I have known some who drank themselves into a coronary and, of course, several people who died from coke related heart problems. But, overall I've known more people who die from heart trouble because they are fat for a long time and enjoy all the attendant health benefits.
This chart from Israel is frightening. Is this getting much attention from official circles? Jeez.
Thanks, there's an old saying, 'don't **** on me and tell me it's raining'.
You must have clicked on the link to the original study. I normally always do that to get at the available facts rather than just read the story mentioning it. This time I didn't, because I'm taking it from the perspective of the average person who wants it explained away. But yes, obviously the first thing to do is establish the group in question, healthy young men who are NOT otherwise at risk of heart attack, were both heavy pot users and had a heart attack. Of course if you find even one such in the 4% of heart attack in previous years you have not even began to explain say 6000 heart patients in the US in question. (Say conservative rough guess 20,000,000 young men age 12-29 in America divided by 5'000, as that's the figure we are getting from the regulators of several countries, 1 in 5000 young men in that age range).
The study only found overall 4.1% of heart attack patients also had cannabis use disorder. It does not say they know any of them were healthy young men in their teens and twenties. The headline and article content are non sequiters. That's the kind of nonsense twisting that pharma funded 'fact checkers' engage in all the time. Mentioning which groups, including 'men under 50' increased share of presenting cannabis use disorder', is unrelated to the question of whether any of them had a heart attack, obviously.
I was a pothead myself from 18-20, smoking with countless people, many who smoked every day. Ive known others since who smoke daily and never saw or heard about a heart attack in any one of them. A lot of them smoked a lot of cigarettes as well.
The first chart is from UK. I didn't make that, it's data from their ONS, office of national statistics.
The Israel data I pulled up precisely because it's not censored in a way they can easily hide, or think they don't need to. To your qn, I only know there's a lot of action there against the govt hiding causes of death and other things thats been exposed.
The booster was made available 31st July and Mandatory to keep green passport on 1st Oct. Maybe it's normal to be 6 weeks behind in updating, but it would certainly be interesting to know what happened from there.
Post by: RE on November 13, 2021, 08:23:36 am
This chart from Israel is frightening. Is this getting much attention from official circles? Jeez.
The Israeli chart is ugly, but even there you do not get a good global picture.
Where do you NOT get much in the way of stats from? The really poor countries. Do we know what is going on right now in the Congo or Nigeria in Africa? How about Iran or Turkey in the Middle East? What about Mongolia and Myanmar in Asia? What is happening in Columbia and Venezuela in South America?
There are whole swaths of the earth with large populations very little information escapes from. These are the populations most likely to dieoff first and biggest.
Like the litany of other species facing extinction though, these populations of Homo Sap simply don't matter. As long as YOUR lights are still on and you have heat and food to eat, who cares? What, me worry?
In the words of Martin Niemoller:
(https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/images/large/fb09c57e-f2fb-4c52-896d-b9c0e022fc25.jpg.pagespeed.ce.Ygi6CUuHUQ.jpg)
You should worry. They will come for you also.
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on November 13, 2021, 07:55:19 am
Well if the chart I posted showing 45% increase in deaths for 15-18 yr oldsmobiles of both sexes and 65% increase for boysenberries only in UK in 2021 was passe because;
https://www.heart.org/en/news/2021/11/08/cannabis-use-disorder-may-be-linked-to-growing-number-of-heart-attacks-in-younger-adults
here is all cause mortality 2021 for canary in the coal mine Israel.
2nd last column is raw number (Remember it's only about 8m people). Last column is % above average (from 2015-2019). It only goes to week 36, late Sept.
Good post PP.
"Because the study is observational and didn't control for use of other substances such as tobacco, alcohol or coke, the research can't be used to show a direct cause. What's needed, Page said, is a large, long-term study that follows people over time to determine if cannabis use can be definitively linked to heart attacks, and if so, the impact of the frequency of use and how the cannabis is consumed."
Well, this is interesting, PP. When finally doing a definitive study they should also control for obesity, lack of exercise, lack of sunshine, fertility, crap food and addiction to electronics and social media. I've never known anyone who had a heart attack from pot. I have known some who drank themselves into a coronary and, of course, several people who died from coke related heart problems. But, overall I've known more people who die from heart trouble because they are fat for a long time and enjoy all the attendant health benefits.
This chart from Israel is frightening. Is this getting much attention from official circles? Jeez.
Post by: Phil Potts on November 13, 2021, 01:50:40 am
Here is a short list of countries that showed a decreasing population from the 2010 to the 2020 Census. There are others, but not important for this post on the topic.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-with-declining-population
The issue I will address here is why you can't REALLY use a compound interest formula to figure dieoff (Liveoff? Birthoff? Depopulation?)
What is done here to generate the projections from 2020-2030 is to ASSUME that the ~1% annual population decrease will remain CONSTANT through the next decade. With only a 1% annual decrease, it would take quite a long time for the population of Homo Sap to dwindle down. Unfortunately, this percentage is unlikely to remain constant at 1%. Reason being all the headwinds we currently face in food production and distribution, all previously discussed.
We won't know the actual average rate of depopulation for the 2020-2030 time period until AFTER 2030. It won't be until after the 2040 census (if there is one) that you might be able to estimate how fast or slow the percentage is moving, up or down. Few of us here will still be alive in 2040.
All we can do right now is to look at the TRENDS.
Trending now on Twitter: More DEAD PEOPLE.
RE
Well if the chart I posted showing 45% increase in deaths for 15-18 yr oldsmobiles of both sexes and 65% increase for boysenberries only in UK in 2021 was passe because;
https://www.heart.org/en/news/2021/11/08/cannabis-use-disorder-may-be-linked-to-growing-number-of-heart-attacks-in-younger-adults
here is all cause mortality 2021 for canary in the coal mine Israel.
2nd last column is raw number (Remember it's only about 8m people). Last column is % above average (from 2015-2019). It only goes to week 36, late Sept.
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Post by: RE on November 13, 2021, 12:05:49 am
The latest sex and dating trend? Celibacy.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/health-wellness/2021/11/12/celibacy-emerging-dating-and-wellness-trend-experts-weigh-in/6373269001/?gnt-cfr=1
RE
Post by: RE on November 13, 2021, 12:00:14 am
https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-with-declining-population
The issue I will address here is why you can't REALLY use a compound interest formula to figure dieoff (Liveoff? Birthoff? Depopulation?)
What is done here to generate the projections from 2020-2030 is to ASSUME that the ~1% annual population decrease will remain CONSTANT through the next decade. With only a 1% annual decrease, it would take quite a long time for the population of Homo Sap to dwindle down. Unfortunately, this percentage is unlikely to remain constant at 1%. Reason being all the headwinds we currently face in food production and distribution, all previously discussed.
We won't know the actual average rate of depopulation for the 2020-2030 time period until AFTER 2030. It won't be until after the 2040 census (if there is one) that you might be able to estimate how fast or slow the percentage is moving, up or down. Few of us here will still be alive in 2040.
All we can do right now is to look at the TRENDS.
Trending now on Twitter: More DEAD PEOPLE.
RE
Post by: RE on November 12, 2021, 07:12:14 pm
I also balk at calling this process 'dieoff', although the Tasmanian aborigines went extinct in the 1800s from infertility caused by STD. Dieoff by the definition requiring being alive to begin with, like grass or brain cells, might be beginning where
Call it a "Birthoff" then if you prefer. A Rose by any other name is still a Rose. ;D
However, you are talking about a Population here, not an Individual. If you express it as a ratio Births/Deaths, if the number is >1 the population lives on. <1, it dies off. =1, it remains stable. So you could call this Living On vs Living Off. lol.
In other economic Newspeak, instead of saying it is shrinking or contracting, the popular term is "degrowing". It's more palatable and less fear inducing, so that is the word that is used.
To me, it matters not whether the numerator is decreasing or the denominator is increasing. The ratio is still <1. I call it a Dieoff. You can call it whatever you like.
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on November 12, 2021, 06:04:13 pm
Fair enough. I would call it population decline myself. Just a slow unravelling of the post world war 2 population explosion/disaster.
I was trying to quote someone else, but this software always quotes the wrong person, so I have to post something and delete it, then quote the right person. This time that didn't work.
Are contraception, abortion, mandrought/marriage drought, low sperm count, gender war and transgender hormone treatment the real horsemen of the apocalypse?
"dieoff" by shrinking family began for European and anglosphere population at least 60 yrs ago. I read they went from 1 in 3 people on earth to 1 in 7. If you consider Europe including UK and Russia 750m, USA 330m, Canada 30m, Oz 25m and NZ 6m? White south Africans 5m? Call it 1.15b, from 8b global population, it's about 12% before even factoring in immigrants to those countries and ethnic make up. In 1900, Europe alone was about 25% of world population
Including the new world around 33% seems reasonable. I'm thinking it's probably around 10% now if there was 20% immigrants.
China doesn't have any of the aforementioned horsemen that caused that and most international airports that I see always have a lot of Chinese families with 2 or 3 children. Those would be living in the diaspora. Why then the extreme drop in fertility in the past few years in china? It isn't just rising standard of living, so I think it could be 5G and 6G radiation contributing. Trump was dreaming when he said American telco was working on 6G a few years ago.
I also balk at calling this process 'dieoff', although the Tasmanian aborigines went extinct in the 1800s from infertility caused by STD. Dieoff by the definition requiring being alive to begin with, like grass or brain cells, might be beginning where the Deagal 2025 report forecast:
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Post by: RE on November 12, 2021, 02:45:16 pm
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on November 12, 2021, 11:38:42 am
Cheap energy and resources in last 100 years have led to increased food for human animals, hence population explosion.
Just like when food is exhausted due to over grazing in any number of examples, the decline will be rapid.
It aint rocket surgery.
JOW
Post by: Digwe Must on November 12, 2021, 11:19:06 am
QuoteIt’s probably further out there on the horizon than anybody who has posted so far thinks it is....food will be more expensive, but nobody is about to starve. We still have plenty of FF’s and we still know how to make ammonium nitrate.
Nobody is about to starve? They already have. A million Afghan children are at risk of dying amid acute malnutrition right now. Breakdown of infrastructure is all that is needed. A Seneca Cliff is approached.
The Price of Ammonium Nitrate has tripled. There are already poor 3rd world farmers who can't afford to buy fertilizer for next years harvest, so total food production will be less next year. At least one person will stave as a direct result, likely a child. They count as people but are easily ignored. In some poor countries food already takes 50% of income. Any increase in price at all in these places will cause some peeps to starve. And one person or a million, it does not matter. The same tragedy played one time, or replayed a million times like a video with views. It is the same tragedy.
“The King will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.”
The mathematics of morality does not follow normal rules.
I doubt increase in food cost will lead to better diets. Rather the opposite will happen and from bad diet some will die. That won't be starvation directly. A case of human nature. The uncommon is ignored. Out of sight and out of mind. People already are starving. As we approach a Seneca cliff, there will be many more.
"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
Woody Allen, My Speech to the Graduates
Post by: K-Dog on November 12, 2021, 08:50:17 am
Quote
It’s probably further out there on the horizon than anybody who has posted so far thinks it is....food will be more expensive, but nobody is about to starve. We still have plenty of FF’s and we still know how to make ammonium nitrate.
Nobody is about to starve? They already have. A million Afghan children are at risk of dying amid acute malnutrition right now. Breakdown of infrastructure is all that is needed. A Seneca Cliff is approached.
The Price of Ammonium Nitrate has tripled. There are already poor 3rd world farmers who can't afford to buy fertilizer for next years harvest, so total food production will be less next year. At least one person will stave as a direct result, likely a child. They count as people but are easily ignored. In some poor countries food already takes 50% of income. Any increase in price at all in these places will cause some peeps to starve. And one person or a million, it does not matter. The same tragedy played one time, or replayed a million times like a video with views. It is the same tragedy.
“The King will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.”
The mathematics of morality does not follow normal rules.
I doubt increase in food cost will lead to better diets. Rather the opposite will happen and from bad diet some will die. That won't be starvation directly. A case of human nature. The uncommon is ignored. Out of sight and out of mind. People already are starving. As we approach a Seneca cliff, there will be many more.
Post by: Digwe Must on November 12, 2021, 07:43:45 am
Here's some math for you.
Hazards of living near oil refineries
It's okay - they're brown.
https://pha.berkeley.edu/2021/04/11/refinery-pollutants-and-their-effect-on-public-health/
"The health effects of living near a refinery prove to be chronic and gradual. These invisible fumes creep into the lives of thousands, and victimizes many. According to the California government, some adverse health effects living near a refinery include: increased risk of asthma, cancers, birth defects, neurological damage, cardiovascular damage, difficulty breathing, and blood disorders. Additionally, those who live closer to oil refineries are statistically more at risk to develop these health disorders, even if they are 10 miles away. Minority groups are disproportionately affected by the toxic harm of refineries, and are often pushed into the frontlines due to poor city planning and wealth gaps. Latinos are 51 percent more likely to live in counties with unhealthy levels of ozone. and nearly two million are living less than half a mile from oil and gas facilities, a National Hispanic Medical Association (NHMA) report found. High poverty rates prevent these families from moving away from these polluted areas. To make matters worse, minority communities frequently have limited access to health care and treatment. According to a NAACP report, in many African American communities the air violates ozone level standards. Annually, members of the African American community experience over 101,000 lost schooldays and 138,000 asthma attacks due to air pollution from refineries..."
https://theconversation.com/living-near-active-oil-and-gas-wells-in-california-tied-to-low-birth-weight-and-smaller-babies-140034
In a California study, we found that pregnant women living near active high-production oil and gas wells have an elevated chance of having low birth-weight babies. This finding adds to a growing body of research on potential public health impacts from oil and gas operations.
We analyzed the birth records of nearly 3 million babies born to people living within 6.2 miles (10 kilometers) of at least one oil or gas well in California’s Sacramento, San Joaquin Valley, South Central Coast and South Coast regions – the state’s oil production epicenters – between 2006 and 2015.
Our analysis found that in rural areas, pregnant women who lived within 0.62 miles (1 kilometer) of the highest-producing wells were 40% more likely to have low birth-weight babies compared to pregnant women living farther away from wells or near inactive wells only. We also found that rural women living near the highest-producing wells were 20% more likely to have babies who were small for their gestational age, which is an indication of reduced fetal growth.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/feb/06/us-oil-refineries-exceeding-limits-for-cancer-causing-benzene-report-finds
At least 10 US oil refineries have been emitting cancer-causing benzene above the federal government’s limits, according to a new report from the Environmental Integrity Project.
The group reviewed a year of air monitoring data recorded at the fence lines of 114 refineries, as reported to the Environmental Protection Agency.
The facilities are not breaking the law, but they are required by EPA to analyze the causes of the emissions and try to reduce them.
Eric Schaeffer, the executive director of the Environmental Integrity Project, said while some refineries have made improvements, others are still releasing benzene at harmful rates.
“Benzene comes with elevated cancer risk but also lots of non-cancer issues that are harder to quantify,” Schaeffer said. People can get sick from low levels in the long term or high levels in the short term.
As I've said before, I expect every drop of oil and ton of coal that is recoverable - regardless of profitability - to be pumped and burned. When the outright subsidies don't work the government will mandate the production of FF. They will have no choice. Your investments will do well.
Currently Russia is playing hardball with the EU around the gas shortage as it relates to both with the migrant crisis and Ukraine. The colder it gets the more leverage the Russians have.
Post by: Nearings fault on November 12, 2021, 07:05:34 am
Post by: RE on November 12, 2021, 06:48:52 am
How do you define a dieoff? To me it would be people dying prematurely resulting in a shrinking population. A demographic shift that shrinks the birthrate and slowly widdles down total population does not qualify. A famine, a war, pestilence, suicide... If our societies cannot cope with falling birthrates they deserve to fail and others will take their place. I would not mind a world with fifty percent less people if it happens over a century. It would be a chaotic century for sure but might buy us the time we need to mature as a species
I disagree.
To me, a Dieoff is simply when the Death Rate exceeds the Birth Rate.
How FAST a Dieoff is is just the difference between these two numbers.
You can calculate this using a compound interest formula, actually a mortgage calculator will do this for you. Just drop in a negative interest rate off the initial number of people in the mortgage. lol. Drop in the number of years you are looking at for the mortgage.
1%, it goes slower than 10%, obviously. Still a dieoff though.
RE
Post by: Nearings fault on November 12, 2021, 06:29:29 am
Post by: RE on November 12, 2021, 06:06:04 am
China’s Population May Already Be Falling as Births Slow Further
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-11/china-s-population-may-already-be-falling-as-births-slow-further?srnd=politics-vp
RE
Post by: Nearings fault on November 12, 2021, 05:17:33 am
It’s probably further out there on the horizon than anybody who has posted so far thinks it is....food will be more expensive, but nobody is about to starve. We still have plenty of FF’s and we still know how to make ammonium nitrate.I've been watching the runup of suncor myself up 14 percent this year with a 5percent dividend... Still seems fairly cheap and far off it's all time high. BP and Shell are both making the right kind of noises about where their future growth come from. Fossil fuel usage is not going away anytime soon as long as politicians are talking net zero but counting on growth. Unlike others I completely get what you are saying about math skills. 3 years of explaining basic power math to people and trying to wrap their heads around the unfeasability of solar only power systems for heating in northern latitudes cured me of any idealism I might have had left. I don't do stocks myself I'm not detached enough to stay steady amid the rises and falls. Right now I'm concentrating on the house which is going awesome, my family, and repositioning myself to consult for energy efficiency. Very few builders or alt people seem able to put all the pieces together get all the various trades on side and make something that performs.
I’m long oil, gas, uranium, and a few other commodities. I’m building an income portfolio that is going to flow cash like you won’t believe.
Nobody gets out of here alive. I will be dust before the Big Crash.I just hope it’s no time soon. (The dust part, I mean.)
For this coming generation :efficiency, resiliency and a modest outlook towards what life will bring are where I'm putting my energies. I still check in but have very little to contribute. I guess I'm not doomy enough.
Cheers,. NF
Post by: K-Dog on November 11, 2021, 10:19:47 pm
The key is people will not give up on capitalism and will try truly radical things to maintain bau.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.slidesharecdn.com%2Fss_thumbnails%2Fpresentacin1solidarity4m-160917011005-thumbnail-4.jpg%3Fcb%3D1474074684&f=1&nofb=1)
Post by: Digwe Must on November 11, 2021, 09:31:47 pm
I’m long oil, gas, uranium, and a few other commodities. I’m building an income portfolio that is going to flow cash like you won’t believe.
Nobody gets out of here alive. I will be dust before the Big Crash. I just hope it’s no time soon. (The dust part, I mean.)
Is that why a large profit in the market is called "making a killing'?
It’s called making an investment. Taking the money I saved and investing it to pay for my retirement. Oil and gas is now out of favor from a social and political perspective, but everybody still wants to have the lights working and the heat on in the winter. That creates a unique arbitrage opportunity for people who can do math and what actually see the world for what it is. College endowments are divesting from FF’s because they are under pressure from students. The same students who have very sizable carbon footprints of their own (many of them anyway) , and don’t even think about their own consumption.
I think my grandchildren are more likely benefit from me directly, than from some half-baked attempts to reverse climate change, that aren’t even close to changing anything, or even working.
I’m also investing in renewable energy, fwiw. But the value right now is in oil and gas. Before all of us are gone, there will be no more “oil companies”. There will only be “energy companies”. Big oil is pivoting for their own survival and those companies are not run by idiots.
When harassed about Jeff Bezos taking his jet to COP26, Bezos’s spokesperson made a point of defending him, saying that his plane uses only “sustainable jet fuel” and that he buys carbon credits to make his emissions net zero.
You know who sells sustainable jet fuel? BP. Yeah.
I’m also investing carbon credits, fwiw. Carbon credits make no sense to me, as someone who is concerned about the environment (and I am)....but’s that what these big climate summits are all about, behind the scenes.
Most people who are successful in a given system are likely to view that system as more resilient and benign than it actually is. You worked hard to gain skills and credentials. Then you worked hard to use those skills to create, build and grow the business. You worked hard for what you have and the system rewarded you for it. I absolutely think this effects how anyone in your shoes views the durability and fairness of the corporate/government capitalist system. People who benefit from the system feel like it will go on indefinitely with just a few tweaks, minimizing the innate fatal flaws. Human nature.
I'm sure you are doing what you think is best for your family. Unfortunately, your investments buy into an industry which is deadly to many other families.
Regarding COP 26 and the corporate elite climate summit, I posted at least two articles here that point out the hypocrisy of the ruling class, and the doomed-to-fail plans to justify burning more FF. The biomass plans being pimped by the energy industry lackeys were proven to be unworkable 15 years ago. I've been opposed to mega solutions proposed by the world's elite for a while now and said so in print. Since I no longer believe in centralized government effectiveness I sure as hell don't believe in these fluffball treaties. As proven by Trump, treaties are temporary and can be negated by a shift in the political winds. I'm not interested in the charade.
It is possible for people to reduce their footprint - but so few are interested. Doom.
My own attempt to leave something for those who follow revolves around enhancing the fertility of productive land and leaving a small slice of it for those who might be interested. The bonus is that it enhances my quality of life. As far as people not seeing the world for what it is and being unable to do math - this is the second time you have essentially told me I don't live in the real world. As I told you before, I heat my house with the work from my own hands and land. We grow much of our own food, make booze, medicine and some other essentials. I'm sitting in front of the fire with my dogs at my feet, homemade wine in the glass, listening to the wind and rain. Feels pretty real to me. But, maybe I should change careers and become a social influencer. Do something meaningful.
Quote from: Phil Potts
There's a 1300 mile carbon capture pipeline across 5 Midwest states going ahead. What do you think about that? Going to burn more oil and cause more pollution than it saves, like windfarms not turning in forests? A way to transfer land from small holders to megacorporporations?
The good news being, water protectors sure don't have much to whine about this time, right? Carbon capture is green! Well, unless it is captured to make fizzy drinks anyway, but still, if it leaks out of a pipeline, it just goes back into the atmosphere, so no harm no foul!
The land being used for this pipeline is being seized. The carbon footprint of this is project is stupid. Phil Potts is absolutely right. These bogus mega renewable projects run over "the little people" by the van load. "Whine"? Really? Protestors trying to protect their only source of water in the face of racist cops, dogs, firehoses, tear gas, pepper spray, beatings, agents provocateurs and private goons are whining? How long would you last taking what the pigs were handing out?
Post by: Phil Potts on November 11, 2021, 01:23:00 pm
I’m long oil, gas, uranium, and a few other commodities. I’m building an income portfolio that is going to flow cash like you won’t believe.
Nobody gets out of here alive. I will be dust before the Big Crash. I just hope it’s no time soon. (The dust part, I mean.)
Is that why a large profit in the market is called "making a killing'?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVxYOQS6ggk
It takes 4-5 years to build a fertilizer plant.
I think, again, that major war is a possibility you all play down a bit. That would accelerate the process. Just because such a turn of events would be stupid and suicidal does not preclude it from happening.
Tell us what the crop yields will be in 2022 and a good guess can be made as to the condition of the world's human population. People in Pakistan pay near 50% of their household income for food. Currently my hay price - if you can find it is up 33% from this time last year. Oats are unavailable, but would be triple if I could find them. Chicken scratch (mostly corn) is up about 75% from last year. What will the people do in countries where food is a large portion of their financial outlay if these increases are passed along? I understand that those who firmly believe in corporate/government capitalism minimize the seriousness of the global food situation, the effect of FF on the environment, the poisoning of billions by polluting industry, the mutual geo-political frailties that will amplify under more stress and the general orneriness of people.
It's not about us. It's about the grandchildren. Mine, yours and everybody's.
[/quote]
There's a 1300 mile carbon capture pipeline across 5 Midwest states going ahead. What do you think about that? Going to burn more oil and cause more pollution than it saves, like windfarms not turning in forests? A way to transfer land from small holders to megacorporporations?
Post by: Eddie on November 11, 2021, 12:50:41 pm
I’m long oil, gas, uranium, and a few other commodities. I’m building an income portfolio that is going to flow cash like you won’t believe.
Nobody gets out of here alive. I will be dust before the Big Crash. I just hope it’s no time soon. (The dust part, I mean.)
Is that why a large profit in the market is called "making a killing'?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVxYOQS6ggk
It takes 4-5 years to build a fertilizer plant.
I think, again, that major war is a possibility you all play down a bit. That would accelerate the process. Just because such a turn of events would be stupid and suicidal does not preclude it from happening.
Tell us what the crop yields will be in 2022 and a good guess can be made as to the condition of the world's human population. People in Pakistan pay near 50% of their household income for food. Currently my hay price - if you can find it is up 33% from this time last year. Oats are unavailable, but would be triple if I could find them. Chicken scratch (mostly corn) is up about 75% from last year. What will the people do in countries where food is a large portion of their financial outlay if these increases are passed along? I understand that those who firmly believe in corporate/government capitalism minimize the seriousness of the global food situation, the effect of FF on the environment, the poisoning of billions by polluting industry, the mutual geo-political frailties that will amplify under more stress and the general orneriness of people.
It's not about us. It's about the grandchildren. Mine, yours and everybody's.
[/quote]
It’s called making an investment. Taking the money I saved and investing it to pay for my retirement. Oil and gas is now out of favor from a social and political perspective, but everybody still wants to have the lights working and the heat on in the winter. That creates a unique arbitrage opportunity for people who can do math and what actually see the world for what it is. College endowments are divesting from FF’s because they are under pressure from students. The same students who have very sizable carbon footprints of their own (many of them anyway) , and don’t even think about their own consumption.
I think my grandchildren are more likely benefit from me directly, than from some half-baked attempts to reverse climate change, that aren’t even close to changing anything, or even working.
I’m also investing in renewable energy, fwiw. But the value right now is in oil and gas. Before all of us are gone, there will be no more “oil companies”. There will only be “energy companies”. Big oil is pivoting for their own survival and those companies are not run by idiots.
When harassed about Jeff Bezos taking his jet to COP26, Bezos’s spokesperson made a point of defending him, saying that his plane uses only “sustainable jet fuel” and that he buys carbon credits to make his emissions net zero.
You know who sells sustainable jet fuel? BP. Yeah.
I’m also investing carbon credits, fwiw. Carbon credits make no sense to me, as someone who is concerned about the environment (and I am)....but’s that what these big climate summits are all about, behind the scenes.
Post by: Digwe Must on November 11, 2021, 11:12:02 am
I’m long oil, gas, uranium, and a few other commodities. I’m building an income portfolio that is going to flow cash like you won’t believe.
Nobody gets out of here alive. I will be dust before the Big Crash. I just hope it’s no time soon. (The dust part, I mean.)
[/quote]
Is that why a large profit in the market is called "making a killing'?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVxYOQS6ggk
It takes 4-5 years to build a fertilizer plant.
I think, again, that major war is a possibility you all play down a bit. That would accelerate the process. Just because such a turn of events would be stupid and suicidal does not preclude it from happening.
Tell us what the crop yields will be in 2022 and a good guess can be made as to the condition of the world's human population. People in Pakistan pay near 50% of their household income for food. Currently my hay price - if you can find it is up 33% from this time last year. Oats are unavailable, but would be triple if I could find them. Chicken scratch (mostly corn) is up about 75% from last year. What will the people do in countries where food is a large portion of their financial outlay if these increases are passed along? I understand that those who firmly believe in corporate/government capitalism minimize the seriousness of the global food situation, the effect of FF on the environment, the poisoning of billions by polluting industry, the mutual geo-political frailties that will amplify under more stress and the general orneriness of people.
It's not about us. It's about the grandchildren. Mine, yours and everybody's.
Post by: RE on November 11, 2021, 10:26:15 am
It’s probably further out there on the horizon than anybody who has posted so far thinks it is....food will be more expensive, but nobody is about to starve. We still have plenty of FF’s and we still know how to make ammonium nitrate.
I’m long oil, gas, uranium, and a few other commodities. I’m building an income portfolio that is going to flow cash like you won’t believe.
Nobody gets out of here alive. I will be dust before the Big Crash.I just hope it’s no time soon. (The dust part, I mean.)
Eddie returns from the MIA list with his usual Optimism. ;D
When you say "nobody will starve" is that Globally or just the FSoA?
Just knowing HOW to make ammonium nitrate isn't quite enough. The farmers have to be able to afford it and the population has to be able to afford to buy the food they grow. Maybe true here, not so true in India, Brazil, Afghanistan, etc.
The relative security of your cash flow is nice for you, but you are in an extreme minority, even here in the FSoA. Most people are quite concerned about the inflation in food prices. I doubt they are quite so optimistic.
So which horse are you backing in this race?
RE
Post by: Eddie on November 11, 2021, 07:45:15 am
I’m long oil, gas, uranium, and a few other commodities. I’m building an income portfolio that is going to flow cash like you won’t believe.
Nobody gets out of here alive. I will be dust before the Big Crash.I just hope it’s no time soon. (The dust part, I mean.)
Post by: monsta666 on November 11, 2021, 04:36:48 am
If things get to the point people are straving then there will be riots. Governments across the world will do everything they can to maintain their power and part of that will be placate the masses to avoiding such outcomes. The government's have various weapons in their arsenal to delay such a day of reckoning and they won't run out ammo within the next 10 years. The show must go on and the fat lady will not sing just yet.
Will it happen? Yes but it will take time. Once the system does fail though then things can get real bad real quick. But there are ways to persevere. Also if things do get bad expect manhatten style projects for fusion power, alterative agricultural industries to be put into motion. These won't ultimately deliver but the key is people will not give up on capitalism and will try truly radical things to maintain bau. Don't expect people to die meekly. Considering those aspects of innovation and self dillusion means there will be delays that stretch die-offs for some time.
Post by: John of Wallan on November 11, 2021, 12:03:31 am
6.66 billion in 2030 and then reaching a low of 666 million later in the century. I am sure you can understand the logic behind such figures. 8) In all seriousness what makes you think the population will drop 50% (more or less) between now and 2030?
At the moment I feel it is likely (but not certain) peak oil occurred in 2018. That means growth has a high probably of reaching some major head winds. Still, even with that reckoning I feel there would be scope to save the economy enough that people are not dropping dead in the hundreds (billions?) per year until further in the century. Me thinks you are over excited today or had too much vodka.
At least I am more optimistic than JoW, who has us at <1B by 2030. :)
My reasoning is based on the Fertilizer and Supply Chain problems. A steady decrease in fertilizer available at a cost poor, highly populated countries can afford will lead to famine in many parts of the world. Few if any of these countries are self-sufficient on food, they are net importers already. The Chinese are already holding back on shipping fertilizer to India.
An increasing Death Rate due to famine would exacerbate supply chain problems as more essential workers in many fields die off. Fewer Ag workers to pick the lettuce, fewer butchers to chop up the pigs, fewer truckers to move the food around, etc.
Then there is the internecine conflict within countries as the populations fight among themselves for the little remaining food. Half the population kills the other half, and probably eats them for dinner. lol.
OK, probably it won't get THAT bad that fast, but it''s not looking too good right now either.
RE
What RE said and then add climate change on top.
No food = no people, and I think I may be a little too optimistic...
We get to the same point. Just our timelines are a slightly different.
JOW
Post by: RE on November 10, 2021, 09:48:06 pm
6.66 billion in 2030 and then reaching a low of 666 million later in the century. I am sure you can understand the logic behind such figures. 8) In all seriousness what makes you think the population will drop 50% (more or less) between now and 2030?
At the moment I feel it is likely (but not certain) peak oil occurred in 2018. That means growth has a high probably of reaching some major head winds. Still, even with that reckoning I feel there would be scope to save the economy enough that people are not dropping dead in the hundreds (billions?) per year until further in the century. Me thinks you are over excited today or had too much vodka.
At least I am more optimistic than JoW, who has us at <1B by 2030. :)
My reasoning is based on the Fertilizer and Supply Chain problems. A steady decrease in fertilizer available at a cost poor, highly populated countries can afford will lead to famine in many parts of the world. Few if any of these countries are self-sufficient on food, they are net importers already. The Chinese are already holding back on shipping fertilizer to India.
An increasing Death Rate due to famine would exacerbate supply chain problems as more essential workers in many fields die off. Fewer Ag workers to pick the lettuce, fewer butchers to chop up the pigs, fewer truckers to move the food around, etc.
Then there is the internecine conflict within countries as the populations fight among themselves for the little remaining food. Half the population kills the other half, and probably eats them for dinner. lol.
OK, probably it won't get THAT bad that fast, but it''s not looking too good right now either.
RE
Post by: monsta666 on November 10, 2021, 06:02:56 pm
I am now setting odds on what the global population of Homo Sap will be on January 1, 2030. My odds of making it for 8 more years to pay off on these bets are about 50-50. lol. Odds may change as the bets come in, Here are the 6 Horses you can bet on in this race.
>9 Billion; 20:1
7-9 Billion: 3:1
5-7 Billion 2:3
1-4 Billion Even Odds
< 1 Billion 2:1
0 20:1
Make your Bets now! The race starts January 1, 2022. No further bets accepted after that date.
*If the currency or commodity you bet no longer exists, your payday may be adjusted to whatever still holds some value.
RE
6.66 billion in 2030 and then reaching a low of 666 million later in the century. I am sure you can understand the logic behind such figures. 8) In all seriousness what makes you think the population will drop 50% (more or less) between now and 2030?
At the moment I feel it is likely (but not certain) peak oil occurred in 2018. That means growth has a high probably of reaching some major head winds. Still, even with that reckoning I feel there would be scope to save the economy enough that people are not dropping dead in the hundreds (billions?) per year until further in the century. Me thinks you are over excited today or had too much vodka.
Post by: RE on November 10, 2021, 06:35:04 am
Look at the trajectory of the curve. When that curve passes the Zero on the x-axis, the PAHHTY is OVAH. Looks like around 2040-2050.
U.S. household growth over last decade was the lowest ever recorded
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/10/12/u-s-household-growth-over-last-decade-was-the-lowest-ever-recorded/
RE
Post by: RE on November 06, 2021, 04:41:47 am
I will out 100 south pacific pesos (Oz dollars) on less than 1 Billion and falling fast.
What a cheery thought.
Have a nice day. ;D
JOW
I am not quite so pessimistic. I am betting on 1-4B. I figure to go down by halves every decade or so. 2B by 2040, 1B by 2050, 500M by 2060... After that it hopefullu starts to level out. That matches the Georgia Guidestones number. ;D
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on November 06, 2021, 01:23:24 am
What a cheery thought.
Have a nice day. ;D
JOW
Post by: RE on November 05, 2021, 10:18:29 pm
>9 Billion; 20:1
7-9 Billion: 3:1
5-7 Billion 2:3
1-4 Billion Even Odds
< 1 Billion 2:1
0 20:1
Make your Bets now! The race starts January 1, 2022. No further bets accepted after that date.
*If the currency or commodity you bet no longer exists, your payday may be adjusted to whatever still holds some value.
RE
Post by: RE on November 01, 2021, 11:15:27 pm
The vitality of life depends on energy flow.
Energy flow against rules generates complexity.
When energy flow reduces...............................................
True, but that doesn't explain the spontaneous appearance of a code to BEGIN the life process. Available energy does not create organization. If it did, lightning bolts would provide enough energy to create new codes to do this all the time. But they don't.
RE
Post by: K-Dog on November 01, 2021, 07:59:43 pm
Energy flow against rules generates complexity.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FtXlpbXfu7e2Pu%2Fgiphy.gif&f=1&nofb=1)
When energy flow reduces...............................................
Post by: Phil Potts on November 01, 2021, 12:21:04 am
Post by: RE on October 31, 2021, 10:44:41 pm
Somewhere lipid molecules mixed with primordial strands of nucleic acid and it began to reproduce. Like a COVID vaccine hypo squirted in a soupy lake of molecules and left to ferment for a few millennia.
The "Primordiall Soup" Theory, which sadly has a gaping hole a mile wide.
Nucleic Acids and Lipids don't spontaneously reproduce themselves. There are numerous proteins involved in this process along with the amino acids they are built from. Most of all in importance is there is a specific code involved that ties this all together.
The proteins involved are huge complex things that fold up in all sorts of neat ways to make various reactions possible. They are biological catalysts.
So what has to happen here is this coding has to magically appear out of thin water and POOF life appears! It would be like the code for your website spontaneously popping up, except vastly more complex than that. Not only that, the machine code the computer actually runs on has to self invent, and so does the compiler which translates your code into machine code. Sorry, I do not buy the idea an infinite number of chimps given an infinite amount of time would type out the complete works of Shakespeare. Besides, you don't have infinite time available, just a few billion years since the Big Bang, which now according to the smartest guys in the room did not pop into existence as a singularity. There you then have still more rules for how protons, neutrons and electrons assemble into elements, and how these subatomic particles are further assembled from quarks and gluons.
Your website is not a random event. It took you to design it. Do you really buy the idea YOU are the the result of a random bunch of lipids and nucleic acids accidentally bumping into each other in the ocean and then spontaneously developing a code to reproduce?
RE
Post by: K-Dog on October 31, 2021, 09:21:30 pm
Somewhere lipid molecules mixed with primordial strands of nucleic acid and it began to reproduce. Like a COVID vaccine hypo squirted in a soupy lake of molecules and left to ferment for a few millennia.
Post by: K-Dog on October 31, 2021, 09:11:24 pm
Quote
So K-Dog, how does one find your website and blog?
https://chasingthesquirrel.com/
Long after the fact it occurs to me that I am on the real intellectual dark web.
Be patient. It takes a while to load. I have custom java-script but I really think Uncle Sam slows things down. I Joke, Blue-Host is slow. If it takes too long do a reload. Hover over the colored tiles and watch the menu bar below the colored tiles change. You will have a dot on the globe that will be active for 15 minutes.
Post by: RE on October 31, 2021, 04:52:11 pm
Nitrogen Dioxide dissolves in raindrops, creating nitric acid. Falling to the ground nitrates are formed.
Acid-Base chemistry is another aspect of the life process I did not cover. This is inorganic chemistry, and very important.
Life originated in the oceans, exactly how nobody knows, but it did magically appear one day. Sea water is a salt solution, more or less neutral in pH, the scale of Acidity v Base. Most living things operate in a very narrow range between 6-8 on the scale which goes from 1-14, acids on the low end, bases on the high end. There are life forms that exist outside this range, bacteria that live around sulfur vents onthe ocean floor do this. For Homo Sap purposes though, everything you try to grow and your soil needs to stay in the near-neutral range.
So now, where do the Acids and Bases come from that determine the pH of your soil? As mentioned, you get Nitrous Oxide in the atmospher from lightning strikes. You also get Ozone, O3 from this, a super duper reactive oxidizing molecule. CO2 in the atmosphere when dissolved in water makes Carbonic acid, HCO3. Sulfur Dioxide mixes with water to make Sulfuric acid. This is what makes up "Acid Rain", and is why the oceans are becoming more acidic, along with your soil in all probability.
Where do the bases come from to keep this whole system near neutral? Mostly from the mineral salts which dissolve in water and are slightly basic. Burning FFs put more Sulfur Dioxide, Nitrogen Oxide and CO2 up in the atmosphere, making rain more acidic. So, ocean pH and soil pH are sinking overall. Not good for plankton or crustaceans in the ocean, not too good for your tomatoes in the permaculture garden either You have to counteract this by adding something basic to your soil. Lime is popular for this. Where do you get your lime from though?
You can be the most eco-friendly permaculture wizard who conserves all her nutrients and recycles everything, but if your soil gets too acidic you are F*CKED. The tomatoes just won't GROW, dammit!
Baby, the rain must fall. The pH is pretty low on those raindrops falling on your head and your crops these days. Lay in a good supply of lime.
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on October 31, 2021, 12:07:45 pm
Digwe Must posted a great link with Wes Jackson.
RE's 2 cents almost reads like a summary of what Wes said. I'm not guessing nor do I care about what came first the chicken or the egg because these are basic Doom 101 facts. (well not basic because you have to have a brain to understand and that leaves most people out. Sad but true. A touch of math is involved to understand how **** we are.)
At 28 minutes in or so Wes covers the Haber Process but RE covered it first.
I posted the Wes video with my article.
* In the University of Doom the class that covers the Haber Process is actually Doom 201.
So K-Dog, how does one find your website and blog?
Wes Jackson is a hero of mine. He is another Fellow of R. Heinberg's Post Carbon Institute. Wes is on the Mt Rushmore of Permaculture with Mollison and Fukuoka. His work is so valuable, and even more so because he knows he'll never see it finished. He is correct that it is an extension of love. Of course the innovations of the perennial prairie he is developing for farmers won't be in time to save the entire s.o.b. But his work and legacy should help those who follow (however many that may be)to do it right - of course at a much reduced scale in collapse. This is why we plant 8 layer polycultures, mimicking, the best we can, natural arrangements and progressions. None of the trees I am planting will be mature for decades after I'm gone.
Post by: K-Dog on October 31, 2021, 09:11:29 am
Lightning breaks the bonds of N2 molecule in the atmosphere. Once split, the N atoms quickly bond to Oxygen, making Nitrogen Dioxide. Nitrogen Dioxide dissolves in raindrops, creating nitric acid. Falling to the ground nitrates are formed.
Microorganisms in the soil do the vast majority of nitrogen fixation.
And the state controlled propaganda rag is good for hard science:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birkeland%E2%80%93Eyde_process
Post by: Nearings fault on October 30, 2021, 12:36:41 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2RRqIv4SoLg
This article envisages a future where farm scale generation of fertilizer comes back.
https://titan.uio.no/naturvitenskap-teknologi-energi-og-miljo-innovasjon-english/2017/future-farmer-will-make-synthetic-fertilizers-her-own-farm
Post by: K-Dog on October 30, 2021, 10:24:24 am
RE's 2 cents almost reads like a summary of what Wes said. I'm not guessing nor do I care about what came first the chicken or the egg because these are basic Doom 101 facts. (well not basic because you have to have a brain to understand and that leaves most people out. Sad but true. A touch of math is involved to understand how **** we are.)
At 28 minutes in or so Wes covers the Haber Process but RE covered it first.
I posted the Wes video with my article.
* In the University of Doom the class that covers the Haber Process is actually Doom 201.
Post by: RE on October 30, 2021, 12:48:32 am
Here is something on the Ag level I DO know something about and can contribut my 2cents to. :)
Soil Building vs Depletion is a simple calculation of Inputs vs Outputs More inputs than outputs, soil builds. More outputs than inputs, soil depletes. So what are the outputs and inputs?
In large part, 3 very common elements Carbon, Hydrogen and Oxygen are used for the life process, and all are present in the atmosphere as gases. Nitogen also is necessary and makes up a large part of living systems, also in great supply in the atmosphere. But it is present as N2, a diatomic molecule that is quite stable, and needs to be "ficed" into Nitrous Oxide or Ammonia to be useful for living things. Legumes (beans) do that naturally, the Haber process does it industrially.
C,H & O provide the energy source for all living things, in plants through Photosynthesis from energy collected from the sun. It is stored in two other types of molecules, Carbohydrates and Fats.
The next important element necessary for the energy system is Phosphorus, not a gas and not present in the atmosphere to any significant degree. P is necessary to move the e
energy around as part of a molecule Adenosine Tri-Phostphate. This powers all the uphill reactions of all living things, plant or animal. A couple of systems, the Krebs Cycle and Electron transport chain do the energy transfer job. These are pretty complex systems, but overall pretty efficient for what they need to do.
Finally, there are a whole bunch of other elements required to build a plant or animal, Sodium, Potassium, Magnesium, Calcium, Iron, Sulfur, Chlorine etc. Chlorine is the only gas here, but it is too reactive to hang out in the atmosphere. It is present as a salt in various inorganic and organic molecules, or as an ion in salt solutions with water.
Now that we have a primer here on the system, where is it all coming from in any given biome to make all the living things in that neighborhood? As noted, the C, H, O, & N all come from the atmosphere. C combined with O2 as CO2, H&O combined as H2O, water. O2 & N2 also present. Everything else comes from the land or water environment they grow in.
Now, in a closed system, all the trace elements recycle. Dead animals and plants give back the trace elements to the soil. They also hand them back while living when they excrete. Thus **** and **** are good fertilizers.
However, no biome can produce more living things if it is a closed system without more inputs of all types. Similarly, if there are more outputs than inputs, any given biome will be reduced in what it can support. What we do now is take biomass from one place where it grows, and move it somewhere else to get eaten by people and the animals they raise for food. After that, the excretions are moved out to sea through the rivers. They don't get back to where they originated from. So over time, the soil depletes.
In the H-G era, this did not happen. Everything stayed pretty much where it was, just moving around a little bit. With the development of Ag and Cities, the stuff started moving away from where it was, then downstream and out to sea. Constant depletion for the last 10,000 years.
You can build soil in some places if you are careful with your inputs and outputs, but you can't rebuild it everywhere. The available minerals have been washed out to sea, and getting them back is quite hard because they are so diluted. Good in theory for sea creatures, but they have other problems to deal with also, like the ocean heat content. For Homo Sap, we live on land and the total available stuff is depleted. We have supplanted what was available through mining, but like coal, phosphate mines are pretty played out also.
Homo Sap numbers will reduce and the rest of the biome will recover, over time. Quite a long time. What it took 10.000 years to wash out to sea will likely take 1M years to get back as the ocean inundates the land and the stuff that makes life possible gets redeposited. In the meantime, Homo Sap numbers will decrease to whatever the land still can support in total. That number is not too large, relatively speaking. I can't tell you the exact number, but my WAG would be about 1:1000. How long it will take to drop that low also unknown. I do know however the Reindeer on St. Matthews Island accomplished this task in a very short time indeed.
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on October 29, 2021, 07:28:18 pm
Farmin(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.agdaily.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F03%2Fbg-dust_bowl-001-libraryofcongress.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)I read three centimeters of topsoil takes a thousand years to build up.
WTF, I have a patch of glacial till on the east side of the house. Fifty years ago, this ground lay buried 20 feet under. Nothing but sand and rock. The till was exposed when second growth forest was cleared, and the land was graded. I turned the top 18 inches of the till into thick, rich topsoil in five years.
I did this by working grass clippings, dead leaves, and wood chips into the till along with a few dead rats. It is wet in Seattle. It did not take long for everything to rot into topsoil. This years' contribution will be compost which started to rot about a year ago. Most of it has already turned to CO2. I will work this compost in when I finish harvesting this years' veggies. I still have green tomatoes. It is a warm autumn here. I will turn the compost into my topsoil with a shovel.
Nature does not have surplus area to feed topsoil growth like I do. The ratio is fixed one to one. I have surplus organic debris to feed my garden. Natural soil would build more slowly, but thousands of times more slowly? In some places I guess. My latitude is at 47 degrees. It rains enough for forest to grow here. Thick forest. Natural soil builds faster where I live than other places. But I know from making my own topsoil by understanding the process, that there are places in the world where it takes much longer than a thousand years to build up three centimeters.
The thousands of years to build an inch of soil dictum as been around for decades. I don't like it so much. On hearing it people get doe eyes and go silent. It is a thoughtstopper. An imprecise maxim which in the right time and place expresses true fact. In other time and place the statement is not true. But the factoid carries the gravitas of an all encompassing deep thought.
People don't understand what topsoil is. That is where the deep feeling of gravitas comes from. Gardeners and organic farmers know what soil is. But lots of people don't have a clue about what soil is. Many city people don't know what dirt is made from. They never had to think about it.
Just hearing soil is broken down plant matter does not mean much. It is an oversimplified description. Soil describes the surface of the earth where the surface is not water, or bare rock. A broad definition. Soil comes in different kinds. Soil where plants can grow is topsoil. Pulverized rock mixed with decayed organic matter with a zoo of microorganisms having capability to hold water. That last part is very important. Crop plants can't grow without soil which holds water.
I read there are only 60 Years of Farming left if soil degradation continues. I read 150 years somewhere else.
WTF, somewhere in the world somebody will be farming in 60 years. Even 150 if people are still around.
The calculation of when soil runs out is descriptive, but it results from math and is an abstraction. Math abstracted from the real world. Valuable information when understood in the right way. But only if understood in the right way. In proper context. Degradation comes from turning soil with a shovel. The same technique which can also build it up. Turning topsoil destroys organic matter unless new organic material is turned into topsoil at the same time. The reason is, organic matter in soil is not fully decomposed. Microorganism in soil break down organic matter turning organic matter into carbon dioxide. But microorganisms need oxygen to digest organic matter. Turning soil aerates microbes as oxygen from the air is mixed into the soil. Microorganisms then get to work, multiply and thrive. Carbon is released.
Apparently an average farm, I assume in America, digests soil from plowing at a rate that would mean it would all be gone in 60 years or 150 years, something like that. Some farms will last longer whatever the number is. Somewhere a farm has already burned up all its topsoil.
Thousands of years of prairie growth left a thick layer of topsoil over the American Midwest. In Iowa this prairie legacy created topsoil which was 14 to 18 inches deep, in the year 1900, over a hundred years ago. A hundred years later farming degraded the topsoil to be only 6 to 8 inches thick.
As topsoil thins, it gets difficult to grow crops. Yields suffer. A good harvest can't tolerate bad weather. Hot climate changed weather will cause heat and drought. Entire crops will be lost as remaining topsoil does not store enough water to keep crops alive. Soil will continue to degrade as climate chaos intensifies. A double whammy and this is not good.
No till farming. Farming techniques that do not turn soil exist. There is an answer to the soil degradation problem. Not turning soil keeps in carbon and enriches soil biology. Organic no-till practices, with cover crops and other smartness increased soil carbon by 9 percent after two years, and by 21 percent after six years. I encountered this factoid and I believe it is true based on my own experience, somewhere in the world. Plowing a cover crop into topsoil builds up organic matter.
Capitalism does not build topsoil. Capital always wants to grow and in the American farming industry short term profit is more important than long term farm health. Extractive and destructive technology is used over alternative technologies because such technologies give maximum profit. If soil were to be gone in 10 years instead of 60 or 150, short term profit would consider consequence. But capitalism cannot give long term solutions to problems because profit must always be maximized. Thus the economic system we have is self-destructive. Like a scorpion carried across the river on the back of a frog. We will drown without revolutionary change. That is the nature of America and our capitalist world as we know it now. Capitalism does not consider the future and our march of chaos into a land of bad consequences inexorably goes on.
There are several methods to accelerate the building of topsoil that also offer a yield from the land. I highly recommend the work of Alan Savory. His results give me great cause to be humble. It is possible to build topsoil using intensive rotational grazing at a rate of up to an inch a year depending on the climate. This is not theory. We've seen it work.
Oh, vegans hate him, so...forewarned.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpTHi7O66pI
This is his rather famous Ted Talk. However, he has much good material at his institute's site.
It is possible to use holistic grazing in rotation with other crops and mixed livestock varieties.
You mention the Great Plains. The bison and other herds of ungulates were a major factor in creating the very deep topsoil. Holistic grazers now follow the pattern that naturally exists. The bison would go through an area and intensely mow it down. They stayed bunched up fairly tight because of the predators that were always on the fringes of the herd. They generally moved slowly, mowing as they went. They, of course, fertilized the ground as they went but it was much more than that. By eating the grass down, the root mass died back to accommodate what it could support, then began to grow again as the above ground growth resumed. This adds organic material rapidly. Also the hoof prints create tiny reservoirs for rainwater to soak in slowly. Having unlimited grazing, the bison would not return until the grass had grown up again. Add in the effects of occasional wildfire and you have an efficient soil building system. I should add here that for thousands of years natives would use fire to drive the bison over jumps and into traps. This had profound effect on the prairie ecology.
No till is better than till, but perennial crops would be better. For that we can look to Wes Jackson. A remarkable man.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UKNviVl8_JI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j12vrJIh0Tk
Also, getting biochar into the soil really accelerates the fertility gain. The char in the soil acts as habitat for the microorganisms and they tend to thrive. Depending on the scale of the project there are many methods one can use to build topsoil.
As you note, a very big force working against this is capitalism and debt. The farmer cannot go to the bank and say he wants to redesign his entire system and he'll need a few years to get a really good return.
For the libertarian Christian perspective - but his work is valid - Joel Salatin
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6B6Sud9Viyg
There are many methods to build soil. If there was a real push for regenerative ag, giant strides could and would be made - but that is not going to happen before the money lenders lose control. As Jim Hightower used to say, "If you want the water to clear up you have to get the hogs out of the creek."
Building soil is building wealth.
Post by: K-Dog on October 29, 2021, 06:06:15 pm
Farmin
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.agdaily.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F03%2Fbg-dust_bowl-001-libraryofcongress.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
I read three centimeters of topsoil takes a thousand years to build up.WTF, I have a patch of glacial till on the east side of the house. Fifty years ago, this ground lay buried 20 feet under. Nothing but sand and rock. The till was exposed when second growth forest was cleared, and the land was graded. I turned the top 18 inches of the till into thick, rich topsoil in five years.
I did this by working grass clippings, dead leaves, and wood chips into the till along with a few dead rats. It is wet in Seattle. It did not take long for everything to rot into topsoil. This years' contribution will be compost which started to rot about a year ago. Most of it has already turned to CO2. I will work this compost in when I finish harvesting this years' veggies. I still have green tomatoes. It is a warm autumn here. I will turn the compost into my topsoil with a shovel.
Nature does not have surplus area to feed topsoil growth like I do. The ratio is fixed one to one. I have surplus organic debris to feed my garden. Natural soil would build more slowly, but thousands of times more slowly? In some places I guess. My latitude is at 47 degrees. It rains enough for forest to grow here. Thick forest. Natural soil builds faster where I live than other places. But I know from making my own topsoil by understanding the process, that there are places in the world where it takes much longer than a thousand years to build up three centimeters.
The thousands of years to build an inch of soil dictum as been around for decades. I don't like it so much. On hearing it people get doe eyes and go silent. It is a thoughtstopper. An imprecise maxim which in the right time and place expresses true fact. In other time and place the statement is not true. But the factoid carries the gravitas of an all encompassing deep thought.
People don't understand what topsoil is. That is where the deep feeling of gravitas comes from. Gardeners and organic farmers know what soil is. But lots of people don't have a clue about what soil is. Many city people don't know what dirt is made from. They never had to think about it.
Just hearing soil is broken down plant matter does not mean much. It is an oversimplified description. Soil describes the surface of the earth where the surface is not water, or bare rock. A broad definition. Soil comes in different kinds. Soil where plants can grow is topsoil. Pulverized rock mixed with decayed organic matter with a zoo of microorganisms having capability to hold water. That last part is very important. Crop plants can't grow without soil which holds water.
I read there are only 60 Years of Farming left if soil degradation continues. I read 150 years somewhere else.
WTF, somewhere in the world somebody will be farming in 60 years. Even 150 if people are still around.
The calculation of when soil runs out is descriptive, but it results from math and is an abstraction. Math abstracted from the real world. Valuable information when understood in the right way. But only if understood in the right way. In proper context. Degradation comes from turning soil with a shovel. The same technique which can also build it up. Turning topsoil destroys organic matter unless new organic material is turned into topsoil at the same time. The reason is, organic matter in soil is not fully decomposed. Microorganism in soil break down organic matter turning organic matter into carbon dioxide. But microorganisms need oxygen to digest organic matter. Turning soil aerates microbes as oxygen from the air is mixed into the soil. Microorganisms then get to work, multiply and thrive. Carbon is released.
Apparently an average farm, I assume in America, digests soil from plowing at a rate that would mean it would all be gone in 60 years or 150 years, something like that. Some farms will last longer whatever the number is. Somewhere a farm has already burned up all its topsoil.
Thousands of years of prairie growth left a thick layer of topsoil over the American Midwest. In Iowa this prairie legacy created topsoil which was 14 to 18 inches deep, in the year 1900, over a hundred years ago. A hundred years later farming degraded the topsoil to be only 6 to 8 inches thick.
As topsoil thins, it gets difficult to grow crops. Yields suffer. A good harvest can't tolerate bad weather. Hot climate changed weather will cause heat and drought. Entire crops will be lost as remaining topsoil does not store enough water to keep crops alive. Soil will continue to degrade as climate chaos intensifies. A double whammy and this is not good.
No till farming. Farming techniques that do not turn soil exist. There is an answer to the soil degradation problem. Not turning soil keeps in carbon and enriches soil biology. Organic no-till practices, with cover crops and other smartness increased soil carbon by 9 percent after two years, and by 21 percent after six years. I encountered this factoid and I believe it is true based on my own experience, somewhere in the world. Plowing a cover crop into topsoil builds up organic matter.
Capitalism does not build topsoil. Capital always wants to grow and in the American farming industry short term profit is more important than long term farm health. Extractive and destructive technology is used over alternative technologies because such technologies give maximum profit. If soil were to be gone in 10 years instead of 60 or 150, short term profit would consider consequence. But capitalism cannot give long term solutions to problems because profit must always be maximized. Thus the economic system we have is self-destructive. Like a scorpion carried across the river on the back of a frog. We will drown without revolutionary change. That is the nature of America and our capitalist world as we know it now. Capitalism does not consider the future and our march of chaos into a land of bad consequences inexorably goes on.
Post by: K-Dog on October 27, 2021, 10:48:45 pm
It wasn't until the 1950's, after the first and second world wars, that the Haber process really started to affect farming. Ammonia stocks, diverted in wartime to make bombs and bullets, started being used to produce the synthetic nitrogen fertilizers used everywhere today.
Increased food production has allowed the human population to swell to its current almost 7 billion size *. Estimates are that a third of the earth's human population is fed thanks to the Haber process. Many people believe that to stop or limit the use of synthetic fertilizers would lead to mass starvation.
* If the article is 10 years old I don't see it matters.
Haber Process is an Energy Glutton
Given that the Haber process requires temperatures of 400 - 550C and pressures of 200 - 300 atmospheres it's not surprising that it uses a lot of energy. Manufacture of nitrogen fertilizers uses about 5% of the world's natural gas production, equivalent to 1-2% of the world's annual energy consumption.
(https://www.the-compost-gardener.com/images/haber-process-fertilizer-plant.jpg)
While natural gas is among the more plentiful fossil fuels, this level of use is not sustainable in the long term. As well, as oil reserves worldwide dwindle, prices will rise putting fertilizers some farmers have come to depend on out of reach for the poor.
https://www.the-compost-gardener.com/haber-process.html
Post by: RE on October 27, 2021, 10:24:46 pm
Put NK at the head of the line for the Famine Horseman. Starving people there have been advised by Da Goobermint to "Eat Less". At least this is more honest than "Let them eat cake".
Starvation stories don't make the news much anymore. Yemen is the only other one I can think of in recent years. There used to be lots of stories about starvation in Africa. We solved that problem though! Didn't we?
"Depopulation" stories also becoming more prevalent.
https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/long-reads/population-growth-contraction-china-india-b1929094.html
The MSM doesn't call it "dieoff". "depopulation" is like "Degrowth", more newspeak. It's more neutral and less worrisome. A Rose by any other name is still a Rose though. When stories like these start appearing by the dozens, you know the trend is already well underway.
How was the Green Ag Revolution engineered? Fertilizer and pesticides, made fro NG & Oil. Fertilizer, primarily Ammonium Nitrate is made from NG utilizing the Haber Process developed for making Bombs. After WWII, many bomb factories started producing fertilizer.
Now NG has skyrocketed in price, and fertilizer manufacturers compete for the same supply as electricity suppliers and people heating their homes. Consequently, food will become increasingly expensive and harder to come by. Not a huge problem here yet, this will obviously hit the 3rd World countries first. As long as it is THEM though and not US, "What, me Worry?" lol.
Populations weakened by hunger become more susceptible to disease, so the "depopulation" problem increases exponentially. Economic problems multiply along the way down. Supply chains fail, insufficient workers to drive the trucks, pick the lettuce, etc.
How long before starvation becomes a real issue for the FSoA? Hard to say, but all the leading indicators are already happening.
Even Unicorn shitting Fusion Skittles won't solve this problem. Star Trek Food Replicators powered by Matter-Anti-Matter engines have yet to be invented, even by Elon Musk. A dwindling Food Supply is inevitable, and the population will dwindle with it. Just like the Reindeer on SMI.
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on October 19, 2021, 08:36:07 am
Post by: RE on October 18, 2021, 08:48:09 pm
I did it.
https://youtu.be/UNC57fdton0
Nice work. You also could do a really nice job by taking photos off the web of emergency rooms full of covid patients and testing sites at Walmart etc. Add pictures of bummed out towns in Syria Lebanon Afghanistan etc. More photos of Chinese crowds going to work all messed up. Finally shoot some video inside an assisted living facility. Or a seniors apartment complex.
Nothing but the dead and dying back in my little death Warehouse.
Nothing but the dead and dying back in my little death Warehouse.
RE
Post by: K-Dog on October 18, 2021, 07:37:36 pm
https://youtu.be/UNC57fdton0
Post by: K-Dog on October 18, 2021, 06:43:34 pm
https://youtu.be/cv-3Rbwb9pI
The soundtrack goes with the video. I could mix them properly in a few minutes, but I am sure as soon as uploaded the mix to the Tube I would be hit with a copyright violation. If I could find a really good cover of 'My Little Town' I would mix the audio with this video of Kensington PA today.
Post by: RE on October 18, 2021, 05:09:29 pm
If you notice, all the tombstones have birth years in the 1950's This guy must have gone back to his hometown for a funeral, and discovered how many of the people he was friends with in HS were DEAD.
Boomers are on their way to the Great Beyond. Millenials are not replacing them. Do the Math.
RE
Post by: RE on October 13, 2021, 05:18:36 pm
QuoteVodka kills germs.
Better than Ivermectin or hydroxychloroquine does.
However consumption of Vodka could lead to kissing on strangers. A high risk activity.
This explains why I never catch a cold. :)
Clearly, a population knockdow is good for the environment, not so good for the economy. The trajectory is quite clear however.
The new population bomb
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/The-new-population-bomb
RE
Post by: K-Dog on October 13, 2021, 03:56:55 pm
Quote
Vodka kills germs.
Better than Ivermectin or hydroxychloroquine does.
However consumption of Vodka could lead to kissing on strangers. A high risk activity.
Post by: Phil Potts on October 13, 2021, 03:27:49 pm
Apparently of Covid. And about a similar number as the US.
Their own count is 214k, vodka kills germs.
Just looked at the wiki, death outnumbers birth by about 33%. They should do well for available resources and emission targets then. Next is to either issue their own currency without borrowing it, or raise a generation of robot technicians.
Post by: Phil Potts on October 13, 2021, 02:44:53 pm
Going forward, hospitals are not going to keep up and a significant number are just going to pass away earlier. Here in Tas, we have nowhere near enough trained staff on ventilators, plus other problems and procedures are going to be delayed. Time to get that airbag warning light that stays on fixed and start holding onto handrails going down the stairs. The system will not be expanded to accommodate this situation.
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Psalm+90:10&version=KJV&interface=amp
Post by: RE on October 13, 2021, 01:17:09 pm
Capitalism is all about GROWTH, and at its core, growth is about population growth. Why do you think the Statue of Liberty says "“Give me your tired, your poor, your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, the wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!” This country’s greatness and true genius lies in its diversity."? Because that is how the people at the top of the pyramid make more money! It's not about freedom or any of the other Bullshyt sold in the history books. Without immigration, where does the FSoA get its Lettuce Pickers? Where does the UK get its Pig Butchers?
Since immigration comes primarily from darker skinned countries this is wht the demographics have changed, and why White Nationalist parties have taken root. It erodes the power of white people since the newbies can vote. At least if they are LEGAL immigrants. Thus you want to make legal immigration difficult and illegal immigration EZ. Why do you think Uncle Joe is allowing through families but not single men? Why did Welfare go primarily to single mothers? Sense a pattern here?
Now, how long will the decline take? Well, current numbers suggest a 1-2% decline per year absent immigration. Covid by itself appears to add around .2% If you compound -1.5% over 50 years, you get around a 48% decline in population. 3rd world immigration can continue to make up for this , for a while. But with war, disease and hunger ravaging these populations, they are not an inexhaustible supply of new lettuce pickers and hog butchers.
Do you expect the population statistics to increase or decrease? Well, with increasing numbers of Baby Boomers meeting the Grim Reaper each year, the Death Rate seems likely to increase. So a 1.5% number is conservative.
Even assuming 1.5% to be constant, over 100 years you have a 78% population decline. It won't be constant though, it's likely to increase a while longer, then gradually decrease assymptotically and finally level off at some number.
Long before this occurs though, the economic and political problems will grow and social breakdown will occur.
How long before the math catches up with us in the FSoA? Make your own calculation on that.
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on October 13, 2021, 07:56:17 am
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58901817
Post by: Nearings fault on October 13, 2021, 07:33:27 am
Post by: RE on October 13, 2021, 07:15:57 am
RE
The coming population bust no one is talking about
https://www.deseret.com/opinion/2021/9/15/22674558/world-population-decline-is-coming-america-should-start-talking
Post by: RE on October 13, 2021, 07:12:03 am
RE
Japan population down by record number to 126.65 mil. amid pandemic
https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2021/08/31fbc9a81383-japan-population-down-by-record-number-to-12665-mil-amid-pandemic.html
Post by: RE on October 13, 2021, 06:58:44 am
RE
Russia’s population undergoes largest ever peacetime decline, analysis shows
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/13/russias-population-undergoes-largest-ever-peacetime-decline