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21
General Discussion / Re: We are moving
« Last post by K-Dog on April 01, 2023, 11:30:33 am »
We have a newbie on the new board.

https://chasingthesquirrel.com/doomstead/index.php?board=1.0

18Hammers

22
A bizzy year beginning in Tornado Alley.  So far about double the seasonal average.

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/mar/31/widespread-damage-reported-across-central-arkansas-on-friday/

Power outages in tens of thousands, widespread damage reported from Arkansas tornado

RE

Someone will say that tornadoes have been around forever and climate change has nothing to do with, an increased stochastic propensity.  ****.

Also. it's not collapse because 25% of the population didn't die and they're going to rebuild the town.

RE
23
A bizzy year beginning in Tornado Alley.  So far about double the seasonal average.

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/mar/31/widespread-damage-reported-across-central-arkansas-on-friday/

Power outages in tens of thousands, widespread damage reported from Arkansas tornado

RE

Someone will say that tornadoes have been around forever and climate change has nothing to do with, an increased stochastic propensity.  ****.
24
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by K-Dog on April 01, 2023, 09:37:04 am »
Alan Novak said to Judge Potter Stewart. "Mr. Justice, you will know it when you see it." The justice agreed, and Novak included that remark in his characterization of pornography.



I don't know is it ?

You will know collapse when you see it.  You may also think some things are collapse which are not.  Only a total idiot will think there is no collapse when there is.

The world has a lot of total idiots.

25
A bizzy year beginning in Tornado Alley.  So far about double the seasonal average.

https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/mar/31/widespread-damage-reported-across-central-arkansas-on-friday/

Power outages in tens of thousands, widespread damage reported from Arkansas tornado

RE
27
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by Phil Potts on March 31, 2023, 06:00:20 pm »
Now go do a survey and see if you can figure out how many folks will willingly run to that lifestyle and call it "liberation".
If you and the other conformist herd animals I expressly excluded from also not putting ultimate value on running water are as happy as pigs in ****, why object to the word "wonderful" for your Brave New World?

Conformist herd animals? Not sure I acquired that characteristic considering my history is anything but....


I thought being a Wildcatter just meant you like fracking in previously protected wildlife parks.



you get this because I defined collapse in a way you don't like?

I'm not the one admonishing any discussion of antecedents to the obvious until the afterlife. Nobody disputes the obvious completed process, as I already said.

that's getting repetitive, so let's try applying your own reasoning, which apparently are
not rhetorical tricks:  We use only the dictionary definition as you insisted on for other words. Thereby an earthquake causes collapse only because buildings lose structural strength and topple, not because anyone inside them died. Deathtoll then, does not equate to collapse. Furthermore, this costs nothing, being provided courtesy of tectonic shifting and can not then be made more expensive or cheaper. The definition can not be cheapened and you have no reason to say that is your objection to discussion of decline and collapse of western civilization or all industrial civilization. 


How did you make that leap?

You said you do this primarily for the fun of it

Running water is a great thing, having lived without it for 4 winters in high school when the pipes froze, I can personally attest to its greatness. Each spring!


The question then is what you would be willing to trade for it.



Quote from: Phil Potts
Quote from: FarmGirl
Those raised on a farm know exactly how liberating it is. Or not.
The govt goon you threatened to shoot got their way right? So it's exactly as liberating as living in luxury in Trump Tower or Mar a Lago when the feds come with a warrant.

You'll have to fill me in on this government goon, I can't say I remember any such event myself?


While I'm the first to suspect a lot of stories that don't add up being made up, I'll bet the farm that one was real.

You don't seem to recall saying above in the past few days that Earth Day 1970 brought the inevitability of collapse via pollution and resource depletion into focus. So you can be forgiven forgetting further back than the past few years, the anecdote:

How in your impulsive and testosterone fuelled youth, way out where they play the 5 string with 6 fingers, probably a county official wanted to go onto your property and.. I suppose check your bag limit for varmints? That then resulting in a lengthy court case that almost made you as Americans say, a 'felon' forevermore, just for firing at his feet or in the air?
28
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by RE on March 31, 2023, 01:04:50 pm »
FG, I spent close to a decade arguing with MKing's solipsistic POV on collapse,  I certainly will not repeat that exercise with you.



RE
29
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by FarmGirl on March 31, 2023, 12:30:34 pm »
We are in pre-collapse.  It it is hard to argue collapse has not begun.

Okay, I'll bite. For real collapse to have begun, we would need a windup to a 15-20% decrease in human population. How about 5%? When the population drops 5% across a year, I'll give you that we've got one decent windup coming for collapse. But let's say, as some might, that a real collapse as I've outlined is too severe. People dying off in large numbers, hard to grasp based on the world we were all raised in, so let me ask, prior to claiming anything is pre-collapse, what is your definition of collapse? We need that to be able to figure out any precursors to it. My definition is easy to calculate a pre-collapse, human population decreases year over year, or three. Like the Black Plague in the chart I provided prior. That could be considered a pre-collapse, a warmup to the main event. But in that case, and by definition using mine, a pre-collapse is possible THAT DOESN'T TURN INTO A REAL COLLAPSE. I'll stipulate to that one.

So, what is your definition of collapse, that we might speculate on what a "pre" might look like?

Quote from: K-Dog
  If everyone got smart, an impossibility. collapse could be avoided for centuries.  But the truth is we are past a dozen tipping points.  It is only a matter of time now.

That is a claim that has been around 1970 Earth Day when the collapse was supposed to arrive via overpopulation and pollution. What is a tipping point called when it DOESN'T tip? And can it be used again without an explanation for why it didn't work the last time someone tried it out?

Quote from: K-Dog
Civilization will return when intelligent squirrels find RE's tombstone and extract the info about the original Diner from the digital archive in the stone.

How does civilization relate to your definition of collapse? As RE pointed out, the Roman Empire collapsed, but human population did not. So an empire, or even civilzation collapsing, is not itself a collapse severe enough to trigger the metrics I've laid out for my definition.

Quote from: K-Dog
Consider this: 

The picture is 'in denial' of collapse in a way.  It suggests 'we' can adapt.  One side of the road still lives.  If we can always adapt there will be no collapse.  A ridiculous perspective.  Thinking there is always a way ignores how much human flesh is alive.  Math says we will collapse. 

Okay, I agree that math says we will collapse. Physics even more so. It is a given, because the Sun is getting lighter, and as it gets lighter it burns hotter, and our planet has the oceans boiled away, and long before that, we will have collapsed. Excluding the astrophysical (a nice GRB would be terribly entertaining for a short period of time as well) I also agree that adaption itself does not stop collapse.

Quote from: K-Dog
Without oil there are far to many to feed.  Social breakdown is inevitable, but we are not there yet.

Well, good thing we don't appear to be without oil yet then? Even better, places like America have more of it, and fewer to feed, than places like India.
30
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by FarmGirl on March 31, 2023, 12:07:01 pm »
Never mind that by her standards the Great Depression wasn't a collapse and neither was WWII.

Absolutely correct. Recessions and Depressions aren't collapses, they are recessions and depressions. WWII was a big war, killed lots of people, but even when killing was done on purpose it didn't fall into a true collapse definition. Until recessions, depressions, wars cause an actual, honest to God, we are all going to die moment across such a wide swath of the population that maybe...just maybe...change arrives?

Is it not reasonable to speculate that the kind of change we need as a species must have exactly the kind of collapse I've detailed for enough humans to react to it, and change their behavior and possibly then save the world for those who make it through the eye of the needle?


Quote from: RE
Hell, the collapse of the Roman Empire wasn't a collapse.  She practices the same form of Denial as MKing and uses the same rhetorical tricks.  Ho Hum.

Human population chart going WAY back.

Notice that the Roman collapse wasn't a bump in the path, so no, the Roman EMPIRE collapsing wasn't a human collapse, just an empire collapse. The Black Death though, that one had potential for awhile, far more than anything before.

And since when is data and a definition a trick? Let alone a rhetorical one. Has anyone else even ventured a competing collapse definition? No, they've just bashed mine. It is easy to tear down, difficult to create. I find this amazing, as isn't this a place where folks who have thought about this for a long time hang out? K-Dog had an excellent refinement to my definition, but how can it be that no one here has a readily available definition of their own? Could it be because monsta and I are onto something, and pretending a volcano going off in the Pacific or some folks not getting as much fuel as they want somewhere is obviously not collapse but just run of the mill crappy luck, economic malaise, poor decisions on the part of leaders, etc etc?
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