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31
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by FarmGirl on March 31, 2023, 11:53:54 am »
Quote from: K-Dog on March 31, 2023, 02:20:47 am
Buying of gas will be observed by circling buzzards long after it becomes unobtainable to an average Joe.  Then the infrastructure to get it will totally break down and we will have collapse 2.0.  Like a release of Windows.  Collapse 1.0 will do in billions before the total breakdown.  Collapse 2.0 will follow 1.0 quickly.  The road to ruin is rapid.

Unobtainable is the scarcity perspective, yes. But the economic concept is high prices precede those buzzards, scarcity causing conservation and substitution, which then alters the supply/demand relationship and hence price. RE knows economics and is familiar with this intermediate step from that perspective, can probably ponticate at length on it, would be interesting to hear how someone  familiar with the social science in question rearranges the pieces. All of this is pre-buzzard of course. Which makes the realistic and just as interesting non-collapse question....how fast can the subsitution and conservation take place, and does the resultant price from that relationship cause unobtainable for average Joe, or just, you know, expensive? Like happened in the 70's. That was worse than hypothetical unobtainable from hypothetic peak oils, it was ACTUAL unobtainable because rationing occurred, as well as an actual global peak oil in 1979. Peak oil 2005 didn't cause anything like that level of dislocation. Prices did go up though, but contradicting that evidence is that peak oil also occurred in 2018 and prices didn't do much of anything, until European geopolitical events disturbed the markets.
32
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by K-Dog on March 31, 2023, 10:01:49 am »
Quote
Except for FG it's not real. It doesn't meet her definition of collapse because it's not happening fast enough for her and not enough people have died yet.

Everybody dies, but collapse is special.  While everyone dies society goes on.  I think that is FG's point.  Society is going on.  For now.  In many ways with social changes that are not so good.  But tomorrow still brings a simulacrum of yesterday.  We limp on.

When tomorrow no longer resembles yesterday, and can't because nothing works we won't be arguing about what collapse is.  We also won't be able to argue.  No power, and no way to host a website.

We are in pre-collapse.  It it is hard to argue collapse has not begun.  If everyone got smart, an impossibility. collapse could be avoided for centuries.  But the truth is we are past a dozen tipping points.  It is only a matter of time now.

The measure of misery is not the measure of collapse.  Misery is only an indication.  Collapse causes misery, but collapse is a special kind of misery.  Misery is possible without collapse.

Civilization will return when intelligent squirrels find RE's tombstone and extract the info about the original Diner from the digital archive in the stone.

Consider this: 

This is not collapse.  It looks like collapse, but the road still has organized traffic.  Society goes on, but obviously the people in this painting are in for more bad times.  The people on the right side of the road are flooded out.  Buildings are underwater.  What will happen on the left side?  The painting does not tell.

The picture is 'in denial' of collapse in a way.  It suggests 'we' can adapt.  One side of the road still lives.  If we can always adapt there will be no collapse.  A ridiculous perspective.  Thinking there is always a way ignores how much human flesh is alive.  Math says we will collapse. 

Without oil there are far to many to feed.  Social breakdown is inevitable, but we are not there yet.
33
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by RE on March 31, 2023, 05:25:34 am »
Quote from: K-Dog on March 30, 2023, 04:09:36 pm
Reading the discussion the thought comes that we should remind ourselves collapse is real.

Except for FG it's not real. It doesn't meet her definition of collapse because it's not happening fast enough for her and not enough people have died yet.  Never mind that by her standards the Great Depression wasn't a collapse and neither was WWII.  Hell, the collapse of the Roman Empire wasn't a collapse.  She practices the same form of Denial as MKing and uses the same rhetorical tricks.  Ho Hum.



RE
34
General Discussion / Re: We are moving
« Last post by K-Dog on March 31, 2023, 02:51:30 am »
Working on a logo for the top of the page at the new forum.

This picture of a diner was made in my computer from a 3-D model of a virtual diner that I found online.  I moved the camera just inside the door.  The software that does this is called Blender.



Not what the logo will look like,  I will make my own model.  But this pic shows the basic method I'll use.   A picture of a 3-D model.

This pic is too dark, too tall and it could be wider.  It is only an example.  The final picture will be from the outside looking in through windows.  Like the Hopper painting.



Notable about the Hopper painting is that it is high resolution and can be zoomed in on to see fine details like the salt and pepper shakers.  I could do something like that.  In the real painting the coffee level in the glass tubes of the big decanters can easily be seen.
35
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by K-Dog on March 31, 2023, 02:20:47 am »
Quote
Well, right now gas is available at most corner convenience stores, just as it has been since conventional peak oil happened in 2005. You can also buy a truck delivery for your 3000 gallon farm tank if you are worried about not having enough for your monster truck or tractor, just pick up the phone and have it delivered.



Buying of gas will be observed by circling buzzards long after it becomes unobtainable to an average Joe.  Then the infrastructure to get it will totally break down and we will have collapse 2.0.  Like a release of Windows.  Collapse 1.0 will do in billions before the total breakdown.  Collapse 2.0 will follow 1.0 quickly.  The road to ruin is rapid.

36
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by FarmGirl on March 30, 2023, 08:03:59 pm »
Quote from: K-Dog on March 30, 2023, 04:09:36 pm
Reading the discussion the thought comes that we should remind ourselves collapse is real.

Or GOING to be real.

Quote from: K-Dog
Bald tyres, and over 100mph on the wrong side of the road, drunk and high.  And I was lucky enough not to crash, but that was then and this is now.

Wrong side of the road, crossed center at 50 mph in a 30 mph corner, hit a Toyota truck head on. Bruises, **** ribs and sternum, woke up in a hospital and couldn't move below the waist. Not lucky. Turns out a compression fracture of the spine isn't a broken back. Lucky indeed. But that was then, and this is now.

Quote from: K-Dog
Such behavior will likely bring on a personal collapse.  Personal collapse is nothing new and always true.  But, if you can't get stuff to get high with and your bald tyres are not going anywhere because nobody has gas, that is beyond personal.  That is a real collapse.

Well, right now gas is available at most corner convenience stores, just as it has been since conventional peak oil happened in 2005. You can also buy a truck delivery for your 3000 gallon farm tank if you are worried about not having enough for your monster truck or tractor, just pick up the phone and have it delivered. Plus, not having gas is not having gas, today anyway perhaps, different than a real collapse where, rather than waiting for more fuel to arrive (rationing and no gas happened in Pennsylvania back in the late 70's...it wasn't collapse) you can't get it, and the consequences lead to a population decrease from what happens next. Real collapse.
 
Quote from: K-Dog
On a global scale.

Yup. Folks not getting gas globally would certainly be a good beginning to a possible real collapse. But less is different than none, and I think folks shouldn't be looking down their noses at alternative forms of transport, if at all possible. Prepping is good.
37
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by K-Dog on March 30, 2023, 04:09:36 pm »
Reading the discussion the thought comes that we should remind ourselves collapse is real.

Bald tyres, and over 100mph on the wrong side of the road, drunk and high.  And I was lucky enough not to crash, but that was then and this is now.

Such behavior will likely bring on a personal collapse.  Personal collapse is nothing new and always true.  But, if you can't get stuff to get high with and your bald tyres are not going anywhere because nobody has gas, that is beyond personal.  That is a real collapse.



On a global scale.
38
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by FarmGirl on March 30, 2023, 02:04:47 pm »
Quote from: Phil Potts on March 30, 2023, 01:16:12 am
Quote from: FarmGirl on March 27, 2023, 07:21:34 am
Now go do a survey and see if you can figure out how many folks will willingly run to that lifestyle and call it "liberation".
If you and the other conformist herd animals I expressly excluded from also not putting ultimate value on running water are as happy as pigs in ****, why object to the word "wonderful" for your Brave New World?

Conformist herd animals? Not sure I acquired that characteristic considering my history is anything but....you get this because I defined collapse in a way you don't like? How did you make that leap? Running water is a great thing, having lived without it for 4 winters in high school when the pipes froze, I can personally attest to its greatness. Each spring!

Quote from: Phil Potts
Quote from: FarmGirl
Those raised on a farm know exactly how liberating it is. Or not.
The govt goon you threatened to shoot got their way right? So it's exactly as liberating as living in luxury in Trump Tower or Mar a Lago when the feds come with a warrant.

You'll have to fill me in on this government goon, I can't say I remember any such event myself? 
39
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by Phil Potts on March 30, 2023, 01:16:12 am »
Quote from: FarmGirl on March 27, 2023, 07:21:34 am
Quote from: Phil Potts on March 27, 2023, 01:17:37 am
To you and Pharoah, Egypt before the famine, pestilence and plague was wonderful, no collapse. To Moses that was already hell and 40 yrs of back to basics nomadic herding and consolidating a strong society was a liberation. [/b]

My goodness, find anywhere I've ever said that my life is wonderful?

It's always been implied in your writing "Will we get a collapse, a real one in our lifetime?" that it's the boomer generations outrageous good fortune to make out like bandits 


Or that there is no collapse?

Also constantly, "is" meaning present tense.

Just because I define it strictly in order to not cheapen its meaning.

In order to prevent discussion of causes and malign anyone who does. Like ridiculing anyone talking about factors such as bald tyres, being over 100mph on the wrong side of the road, drunk and high, leading to a car crash 


 to be "gee the market was down 5% this quarter, whoa is me for my stock portfolio"

I almost mentioned the reports of stock market fluctuations by "market watchers" ( verbatim quotation, not paraphrase) earlier, as an example of genuine chicken littles. Then again, they only posit it as possibility not prediction that I'm aware of. Unless I specify who said what would happen and when, I would be guilty of the same baseless accusations as you make.

 doesn't make me the Pharoah any more than it does Moses

Because the analogy does not relate to qualititive experience within the parameters you express interest in.


. And I'll grant you that the modern day Amish certainly have a strong society and are liberated from many of the doomer concerns as to what happens next when a REAL collapse arrives.

You are the one who may need to do research on the current status of such things as being allowed to keep chickens and grow gardens, or sell seeds in stores during a pandemic, or allowing seeds that can be used more than once, if you think I'm talking about going Amish.


Now go do a survey and see if you can figure out how many folks will willingly run to that lifestyle and call it "liberation".

If you and the other conformist herd animals I expressly excluded from also not putting ultimate value on running water are as happy as pigs in ****, why object to the word "wonderful" for your Brave New World?


Those raised on a farm know exactly how liberating it is. Or not.


The govt goon you threatened to shoot got their way right? So it's exactly as liberating as living in luxury in Trump Tower or Mar a Lago when the feds come with a warrant.

Go lecture Elon about being unfamiliar with what was once a common American upbringing, back in the day, or advocating for that as the standard human condition.

He took over Twitter, ungagged the banned and sacked the thought police because he gets it.


 A real collapse will certainly attempt to drive the world in that direction, and "liberating" as a descriptor won't matter in the least to folks who just don't want to starve.
 
So somewhat satieted, Maslow's hierarchy doesn't go beyond guessing how many fingers O'Brien wants you to say he is holding up, if you believe being in bondage or perishing in the pestilence was better. 


40
General Discussion / Re: We are moving
« Last post by K-Dog on March 28, 2023, 11:12:22 am »
Quote from: RE on March 27, 2023, 04:01:23 am
The new spot has nice graphics also :)

RE

It will have even better graphics.

 I picked a basic template and changed out a few pics.  I will do that with better graphics later.  I added a plug in to post videos and then I did a full back up.  The color scheme, not unlike the old Diner, is warm and friendly.  Certainly compared to the robot blue here.

I am going to build a Diner as a three D model with 'Doomstead' on the sign over it and take a picture of it.  The software to do the model in and take the picture is called 'Blender'.  tt will take me a few hours to learn it.  I started to do the Diner model and realized I had a tiger by the tail. 

Reconsidering I made simple pics to get away from the generic template for now.  Better I make the needed changes and improve on them later.  Which I did as anyone who visits can see.

*  Users of this forum should register at the new forum.  Use the same name so when RE and I look at the member list we can tell when most everyone has moved over.  Then it makes sense to start posting at the new site and trim this one down to a single redirect post with link to our new home.

https://chasingthesquirrel.com/doomstead/
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