Author Topic: Dieoff Errata  (Read 87076 times)

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Re: Depopulation Trends
« Reply #60 on: November 13, 2021, 01:50:40 am »
Here is a short list of countries that showed a decreasing population from the 2010 to the 2020 Census.  There are others, but not important for this post on the topic.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-with-declining-population

The issue I will address here is why you can't REALLY use a compound interest formula to figure dieoff (Liveoff?  Birthoff? Depopulation?)

What is done here to generate the projections from 2020-2030 is to ASSUME that the ~1% annual population decrease will remain CONSTANT through the next decade.  With only a 1% annual decrease, it would take quite a long time for the population of Homo Sap to dwindle down.  Unfortunately, this percentage is unlikely to remain constant at 1%.  Reason being all the headwinds we currently face in food production and distribution, all previously discussed.

We won't know the actual average rate of depopulation for the 2020-2030 time period until AFTER 2030.  It won't be until after the 2040 census (if there is one) that you might be able to estimate how fast or slow the percentage is moving, up or down.  Few of us here will still be alive in 2040.

All we can do right now is to look at the TRENDS.

Trending now on Twitter: More DEAD PEOPLE.

RE

Well if the chart I posted showing 45% increase in deaths for 15-18 yr oldsmobiles of both sexes and 65% increase for boysenberries only in UK in 2021 was passe because;

At a time of increasing legalization of marijuana, new research shows a decade-long trend of more people under 50 with cannabis use disorder being hospitalized for a heart attack.
www.heart.org · heart.org


 here is all cause mortality 2021 for canary in the coal mine Israel.

2nd last column is raw number (Remember it's only about 8m people). Last column is % above average (from 2015-2019). It only goes to week 36, late Sept.

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« Last Edit: November 13, 2021, 02:28:06 am by Phil Potts »