Author Topic: Energy Errata  (Read 156590 times)

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Re: Energy Errata
« Reply #600 on: March 23, 2023, 04:17:20 pm »
In ten years the worlds leading producer of oil will tap out.  Then **** hits the fan.  Eat right and take care of yourself.  Hope you don't come down with something fatal.  Roll the dice.  Can you make it 10 years.  You will see collapse if you do.  If I am there with you, we will be in a strange way lucky.



Can you make it 10 years.  Do you feel lucky?

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Re: Energy Errata
« Reply #601 on: March 23, 2023, 05:35:15 pm »
In ten years the worlds leading producer of oil will tap out.

Is that the one that that was supposed to have been tapped out in 1970, or the one supposed to have been tapped out in 2003 or so?

Quote from: K-Dog
Then **** hits the fan.  Eat right and take care of yourself. 

Well, eat right and take care of yourself indeed. It seems reasonable to venture that personal collapse will still arrive for us older farts before a real one finally shows up regardless. Isn't this an eat, drink and be merry phase of our lives?

Quote from: K-Dog
Hope you don't come down with something fatal.  Roll the dice.  Can you make it 10 years.  You will see collapse if you do.  If I am there with you, we will be in a strange way lucky.

Sorry K-Dog, but we all inherited a death sentence the instant we took our first breath. I think living life to its fullest has been the plan since the day any of us realized that we are all doomed. It is just a matter of when.

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Re: Energy Errata
« Reply #602 on: March 23, 2023, 05:42:31 pm »
So here is real collapse on a local level. Our township came out with a report stating that they have almost 30 million dollars of bridge repairs and replacement to do and no money to do it with. The plan is to deactivate 3 bridges deemed non essential and wait for provincial funding for the rest...

Is this really going to cause a local dieoff of 20-25%, or just be inconvenient?


Quote from: Nearings fault
A tougher life more constrained by naturally imposed limits. Collapse of the high energy usage fairy tale. It's early days of course but that is how it looks to me.

Well, the degredation of civil services would be a precursor to a collapse I'd bet. Not quite sure gravel roads rather than asphalt are a surprise when it comes to local road maintenance of poor localities. A downside to living in a poor rural area perhaps?

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Re: Energy Errata
« Reply #603 on: March 24, 2023, 12:41:28 pm »
Do you think that we'll have a collapse, a real collapse, in our lifetimes?

To me the dumbing down of the population with revising down the mean IQ, so that "I literally died" is now a common utterance, IS real collapse.

Well, that is completely reasonable. Collapse can be defined as very personal, and I've tried to separate my definition into the personal and global. Thinking objectively, say on the behalf of children, the well raised ones might enjoy thi situation as an economic advantage.

Quote from: Phil Potts
Nobody did try and convince anyone else any particular final eventuality is here. nearings fault specified what he envisions and that's something I see as probable also.  By your logic you do not get to also try and convince anyone you are past your heydey and will die, unless you have lost 3 pints of blood and are still gushing blood like a hydrant.

Oh, that wasn't really my logic. Mine was more like a monstrous nasty pandemic, some REAL wars kicking off involving weapons capable of not only erasing nations but the accompanyng food producing infrastructure, Yellowstone going boom, a small sized cosmic collision, etc etc.


Quote from: Phil Potts
..as none of us said we would be extinct within 4 yrs of peak oil.

Indeed. No one has that I am aware of, so I am unaware of how this particular claim is useful in this conversation.

Quote from: Phil Potts
If a whole page proving a point is  too complicated, Twitter to not exceed today's attention span might be a better forum [/i]

I'll take your word for, and if you think that is where your point (IQ decreasing meaning collapse perhaps?) is better suited please, don't let anything I've said stop you.

I'm not the one insisting that a one word incantation wards off all inconvenient fact. I'm also not the one insisting we must be like an animal capable of only recognising that another animal is dead, but not thinking it is going to die itself (constant expressions of wonderment and awe at low EROEI seeing out the boomer generation with a market economy, notwithstanding).

There was a paragraph in my previous post above ☝️ you missed (italicised), but I'm really pointing that out for the benefit of anyone else who might have also not seen it buried in there. That's if this endless rehash of reassuring sophistry for the simple isn't boring them to death. Here is the snippet anyway:

I can talk about our lifetimes because we've had them. You and I and RE, we aren't spring chickens, right? I think we can give Monsta a pass, he has more time to run than us old farts. And the coming collapse is a given, and has been since folks began realizing what growth and consumption and capitalism and pollution will do, call it Earth Day 1970 if you want me to pick a date when the basics of collapse were coming into view reasonably widely.

But the definition of collapse is what Monsta and I were commenting on. We, the collective we, cheapen the word, using it as we do for inconsequential events.


Again, you don't speak for me only pontificating and making prognostications on a process of decline and decay. My years in the 20th Century are only a few more than the years in the 21st Century, but I am as stolidly a 20th Century man as the geezers RE has for company, hence your seeming slight over estimation on my near completion on an allotted three score and ten.

The difference between myself and most others of my cohort is that I notice a lot more changes and trends, make more associations and reflect much more on a systematic theory of everything. When I got in the car this afternoon, I caught some interview about tattoo removal and the interviewer saying he got his first tattoo at 48. He said it was because it really meant something to him. To me this is simply another quintessential example of controlled civilizational collapse in action. Getting everyone to largely deface and there by degrade themselves as de riguer, demoralizes the population making them far more amenable to undergo whatever form of processing they are programmed to accept. I don't buy that this guy never previously got tattoos because there was nothing so meaningful as now. He is unoriginal in following the herd and giving a standard unoriginal explanation. That is not to say there never were people who did get things that mean something to them, but they were the minority. A critical mass of conformist statists is essential to control as more rights are removed.

If you want to say we have had our lifetimes, then you must say also we have had our civilization. You can not object to pointing out known signposts and markers of collapsing empires and civilizations as not being like experiencing vascular dementia and incontinence.



Quote from: Phil Potts
Nobody did try and convince anyone else any particular final eventuality is here. nearings fault specified what he envisions and that's something I see as probable also.  By your logic you do not get to also try and convince anyone you are past your heydey and will die, unless you have lost 3 pints of blood and are still gushing blood like a hydrant.

Oh, that wasn't really my logic. Mine was more like a monstrous nasty pandemic, some REAL wars kicking off involving weapons capable of not only erasing nations but the accompanyng food producing infrastructure, Yellowstone going boom, a small sized cosmic collision, etc etc.


Quote from: Phil Potts
..as none of us said we would be extinct within 4 yrs of peak oil.

Indeed. No one has that I am aware of, so I am unaware of how this particular claim is useful in this conversation.

Losing 25% of population a year results in complete extinction in 4 yrs. Apparently we would still have access to nternet to only comment on real collapse and not say anything unsettling.

The UK has just approved supplying depleted uranium ammunition for use in ukr. This not only responsible for the Gulf War Syndrome, but poisons ground so food supply from a major world source is ruined. See no evil, hear no evil.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2023, 03:00:22 pm by Phil Potts »

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Re: Energy Errata
« Reply #604 on: March 24, 2023, 06:20:21 pm »
I'm not the one insisting that a one word incantation wards off all inconvenient fact.

Neither am I. Try not to characterize so far outside of the boundaries that I am obviously drawing with thorough explanations. If you don't like the boundaries I've defined, feel free to offer your own.

Quote from: Phil Potts
I'm also not the one insisting we must be like an animal capable of only recognising that another animal is dead, but not thinking it is going to die itself (constant expressions of wonderment and awe at low EROEI seeing out the boomer generation with a market economy, notwithstanding).

I also made no comparisons to any other species. You wish to do so, fine, then define what you even mean, non-humans being in awe of low eroei or market economies. Certainly I didn't mention much about those topics either in my definition.

Quote from: Phil Potts
The difference between myself and most others of my cohort is that I notice a lot more changes and trends, make more associations and reflect much more on a systematic theory of everything.

Outstanding. And you are presuming that all us other older farts don't do the same? Just because I like a simple metric doesn't mean it doesn't start off with exactly the kind of changes and trends analysis that you reflect on.

Quote from: Phil Potts
When I got in the car this afternoon, I caught some interview about tattoo removal and the interviewer saying he got his first tattoo at 48. He said it was because it really meant something to him. To me this is simply another quintessential example of controlled civilizational collapse in action.

There is nothing wrong with you defining collapse as middle aged people getting tattoos. In my opinion, it cheapens the use of the word among those of us who have been paying attention to the topic, and usually discussing what I will call REAL collapse, as middle aged folks getting tattooes wasn't much of a hot topic at the old Diner, and this is possibly the first time I've heard someone want to use it as an indicator.

Quote from: Phil Potts
If you want to say we have had our lifetimes, then you must say also we have had our civilization.

Now THIS strikes me as an honest thought on what I've been saying. It seems reasonable the more I think of it, so I will agree with you. Us old farts have had our lifetimes, and lived in our civilization. Based on my familiariity with newer folks, I can't say I like what they are deciding to create for their civilization any more than I like tattoos, or they like my opinion on certain topics and then call me "boomer".

Quote from: Phil Potts
Losing 25% of population a year results in complete extinction in 4 yrs. Apparently we would still have access to nternet to only comment on real collapse and not say anything unsettling.

25% year over reductions don't involve the same number each year. 25% reduction in the first year of 8 billion in population is 2 billion, leaving 6 billion remaining. 25% of 6 billion is 1.5 billion dead, 4.5 billion remaining. Another 25% reduction in 4.5? 1.125 down to 3.375. Next is 0.84 billion dead, and a final total of 2.5 billion, give or take. Etc etc.

Quote from: Phil Potts
The UK has just approved supplying depleted uranium ammunition for use in ukr. This not only responsible for the Gulf War Syndrome, but poisons ground so food supply from a major world source is ruined. See no evil, hear no evil.

I imagine if people in the UK care there will be riots in the streets, recalls on all politicians, calls for defunding the military or government. If they aren't, well, the world is a different type society from the one us old farts had, isn't it?

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Re: Energy Errata
« Reply #605 on: March 24, 2023, 07:27:36 pm »
I'm not the one insisting that a one word incantation wards off all inconvenient fact.

Neither am I. Try not to characterize so far outside of the boundaries that I am obviously drawing with thorough explanations. If you don't like the boundaries I've defined, feel free to offer your own.

Quote from: Phil Potts
I'm also not the one insisting we must be like an animal capable of only recognising that another animal is dead, but not thinking it is going to die itself (constant expressions of wonderment and awe at low EROEI seeing out the boomer generation with a market economy, notwithstanding).

I also made no comparisons to any other species. You wish to do so, fine, then define what you even mean, non-humans being in awe of low eroei or market economies. Certainly I didn't mention much about those topics either in my definition.

Quote from: Phil Potts
The difference between myself and most others of my cohort is that I notice a lot more changes and trends, make more associations and reflect much more on a systematic theory of everything.

Outstanding. And you are presuming that all us other older farts don't do the same? Just because I like a simple metric doesn't mean it doesn't start off with exactly the kind of changes and trends analysis that you reflect on.

Quote from: Phil Potts
When I got in the car this afternoon, I caught some interview about tattoo removal and the interviewer saying he got his first tattoo at 48. He said it was because it really meant something to him. To me this is simply another quintessential example of controlled civilizational collapse in action.

There is nothing wrong with you defining collapse as middle aged people getting tattoos. In my opinion, it cheapens the use of the word among those of us who have been paying attention to the topic, and usually discussing what I will call REAL collapse, as middle aged folks getting tattooes wasn't much of a hot topic at the old Diner, and this is possibly the first time I've heard someone want to use it as an indicator.

Quote from: Phil Potts
If you want to say we have had our lifetimes, then you must say also we have had our civilization.

Now THIS strikes me as an honest thought on what I've been saying. It seems reasonable the more I think of it, so I will agree with you. Us old farts have had our lifetimes, and lived in our civilization. Based on my familiariity with newer folks, I can't say I like what they are deciding to create for their civilization any more than I like tattoos, or they like my opinion on certain topics and then call me "boomer".

Quote from: Phil Potts
Losing 25% of population a year results in complete extinction in 4 yrs. Apparently we would still haove access to nternet to only comment on real collapse and not say anything unsettling.

25% year over reductions don't involve the same number each year. 25% reduction in the first year of 8 billion in population is 2 billion, leaving 6 billion remaining. 25% of 6 billion is 1.5 billion dead, 4.5 billion remaining. Another 25% reduction in 4.5? 1.125 down to 3.375. Next is 0.84 billion dead, and a final total of 2.5 billion, give or take. Etc etc.

Quote from: Phil Potts
The UK has just approved supplying depleted uranium ammunition for use in ukr. This not only responsible for the Gulf War Syndrome, but poisons ground so food supply from a major world source is ruined. See no evil, hear no evil.

I imagine if people in the UK care there will be riots in the streets, recalls on all politicians, calls for defunding the military or government. If they aren't, well, the world is a different type society from the one us old farts had, isn't it?

"Conspiracy" is the one word  ward-off to ignore facts. It also dehumanises those that might get silenced.  Very different from investigating and assessing any suggestion of conspiracy on its merit.  In previous world wars, undermining the war effort by dissenting was jailable and this time round will be no different.

What I said about tattoos on the guy who started at 48 was an example of a full explanation, one of many I've provided. I didn't define collapse as the tattoo he talked about. I said "controlled civilizational collapse in action" and gave a full breakdown of how that works. To recap, a critical mass of conformist statists with broken spirit are essential to control. So is not using all the oil.


You began with talking about Maga/woke as not being real collapse, though nobody here has said anything about any of that since the new site started. Only coincidentally, that's what alphabet agencies are focused on now. As was always said by doomers, the threat of terror and elimination turns to the domestic. It couldn't be very fulfilling profiling and monitoring an innocuous equestrian like Farmgal and a barber shop quartet of harmless upstarts here. No I don't think all of us do pay the same attention to pattern recognition.

Your assessment of someone else's version on the process of energy scarcity as collapse was 'just some of us doing what we do' in taking action to survive the decline.  That raises the question whether something all of us do in dying can be collapse either.

2 billion people dying in a year is just some of us doing what we do and nobody disputes what you mentioned as constituting a collapse. I guess there isn't a forum for potential cannibals with modems somewhere to just wait and not say anything about how it's arrived at, hence your time spent telling us not to talk about anything except the completed process. That is telling us to also be like the kangaroo recognising road kill and not thinking about how demise also happens to itself.

I already mentioned mass protests in the millions against being enslaved and more recently anti war, so any more in UK will not be covered by the media either.

The year on year figures don't conform to typical plague, Petri dish, or even Aushwitz play outs. Nevertheless, whether it's year one or year 5, it fits with renaissance and that's the process i look forward to.

That's my last reply as I'm sure you have better things to do and I don't like holding forth.



« Last Edit: March 24, 2023, 08:45:42 pm by Phil Potts »

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Get ready: More blackouts are coming
« Reply #606 on: March 26, 2023, 05:01:53 am »
No worries.  As long as 25% pf the lights are on, it's not collapse.

Major power outages are more common and last longer than they did 10 years ago. It's a sign our electric grid is unprepared for the climate crisis.
Business Insider · businessinsider.com


Get ready: More blackouts are coming

RE

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Re: Get ready: More blackouts are coming
« Reply #607 on: March 26, 2023, 06:44:30 am »
No worries.  As long as 25% pf the lights are on, it's not collapse.

https://www.businessinsider.com/blackouts-power-outages-more-common-climate-change-electric-grid-infrastructure-2023-3

Get ready: More blackouts are coming

RE
Great article. Battery backed up systems are hot commodities right now...

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Re: Energy Errata
« Reply #608 on: March 26, 2023, 08:29:27 am »
"Conspiracy" is the one word  ward-off to ignore facts.

That isn't how the word is defined.

It is defined as: "a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful". Conspiracy theory is something else altogether, defined as: a theory that explains an event or set of circumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators

You'll notice warding off facts isn't included. I will admit that some might use it that way improperly though, during a sort of Gish Gallop routine.


Quote from: Phil Potts
It also dehumanises those that might get silenced.

Well, the Gish Gallop part might, but the definition doesn't say anything about being dehumanizing or silencing either. One of the nice things about defintions of words, and facts, is that mostly they are what they are, facts being something that all parties are expected to agree on as factual in nature, i.e. no real dispute as to them as "fact".

Quote from: Phil Potts
What I said about tattoos on the guy who started at 48 was an example of a full explanation, one of many I've provided. I didn't define collapse as the tattoo he talked about. I said "controlled civilizational collapse in action" and gave a full breakdown of how that works. To recap, a critical mass of conformist statists with broken spirit are essential to control. So is not using all the oil.

You certainly did have the tattoo idea wrapped up within an overarching concept, and I can see at least a sliver of it. But as I've defined collapse, it is just an irrelevant piece of information along the way, as getting a tattoo isn't of itself the dieoff that cannot be denied. As far as who is, or is not in control, that is open to debate, and your explanation did not appear to link the tattoo to this overarching theme. I don't even know what a "broken spirit" is, let alone what named group has it, or not, or that that subset has announced somewhere or gotten together and given the world the idea that it is required for control. What control? Me? You? Banks and the large institutions that have some attachment to the levers of power?

Quote from: Phil Potts
You began with talking about Maga/woke as not being real collapse, though nobody here has said anything about any of that since the new site started.

I did more than talk, I defined a real and undeniable collapse, and within my definition MAGA isn't so much as a pimple on the concept.


Quote from: Phil Potts
Only coincidentally, that's what alphabet agencies are focused on now. As was always said by doomers, the threat of terror and elimination turns to the domestic.

Well now you are talking about governance, and how it happens or comes off the rails. Hitler certainly used the threat of terror and elimination to run a country, as did Stalin. Worked out better for one than another. I don't believe the Swedes suffer from this though, or many other places.

Quote from: Phil Potts
It couldn't be very fulfilling profiling and monitoring an innocuous equestrian like Farmgal and a barber shop quartet of harmless upstarts here. No I don't think all of us do pay the same attention to pattern recognition.

I agree that we don't have the same pattern recognition. Some of us are looking for and focused on a real collapse, the thing us doomers are keyed on, and less about the politics or groups along the way wanting to portray their understanding of the deep state, or energy, or politics, or culture, or banks as the key to something that while often claimed, always seems to sneakily receded around the next corner, each time we turn the current one.

Quote from: Phil Potts
2 billion people dying in a year is just some of us doing what we do and nobody disputes what you mentioned as constituting a collapse.

Exactly. I did a really good definition, to weed out real collapse from the things we pretend are collapse, or might be, or could be tomorrow if only...(fill in the blank). And we then cheapen both the word and the concept. Unfortunately.

Quote from: Phil Potts
I guess there isn't a forum for potential cannibals with modems somewhere to just wait and not say anything about how it's arrived at, hence your time spent telling us not to talk about anything except the completed process.

2 billion dying off isn't a completed process, it is just a metric. In order for that metric to happen, you, me, doomers everywhere will SEE it happening. Slowly at first probably. World population doesn't grow one year. Which means something far worse than Covid showed up. And then it gets worse, quickly. There will be no uncertainty then, because the body count will tell us all along the way.

Quote from: Phil Potts
I already mentioned mass protests in the millions against being enslaved and more recently anti war, so any more in UK will not be covered by the media either.

Sounds sort of like the 60's and Vietnam? Protests aren't collapse. They are protests. And they aren't limited to enslavement, or war or economics, but even more basic things, like health care and food and education. Stopping gun violence and cheering on, or denigrating a political figure. Let us try and not confuse a pretty run of the mill, widespread and common thing with another that is more about survival, rather than preferences in elections or who is getting what slice of the pie and how.

Quote from: Phil Potts
That's my last reply as I'm sure you have better things to do and I don't like holding forth.

No problem. It was an interesting conversation. And yet for all its voluminosity, I did ask this question 5 days ago, and I'm not sure you posited an anwer.

Do you think that we'll have a collapse, a real collapse, in our lifetimes?

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Re: Energy Errata
« Reply #609 on: March 26, 2023, 10:32:45 am »
The tattoo observation is interesting.  Live half your life thinking they deface the body and give baggage of a past that you can't leave behind.



Then tattoos become popular and the 40 year old brain hunts down something meaningful to justify getting one.  Thinking all the while that this is a free choice.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2023, 10:35:16 am by K-Dog »

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Re: Energy Errata
« Reply #610 on: March 26, 2023, 10:40:29 am »
The spectrum of collapse.  I too have pondered exactly what is collapse.  Change and death are the way of the world.  A doomer has to wonder if they are a bit off.  Is it a problem that doom heads can't accept reality?

No, collapse is unwanted change and collapse is change which could be prevented.  Not accepting the unwanted is a good thing!

In the most recent interview I posted, Nate Hagens mentioned that our bodies like doing whatever it they have been doing for the last six months, be it good for us or not.  We are creatures of habit. 

Doom stalks society but only because people pretend doom is not there.  The denial habit.  If people deal with doom they prepare for the future.  We know people don't deal with doom or prepare for the future.  Preparing for the future cancels doom.  Not going to happen, but in theory doom could be prevented by rational actions.

If collapse could not be prevented it is not collapse, that circumstance is tragic fate.

All good children are taught not to look.



Denial is a product of psychology and social pressure not to defy authority should make any sane person question their sanity.  It is hard to think you can keep dry in a rainstorm.  Even harder to actually do it.

Control has great interest in maintaining denial and fighting doom.  Control wants to maintain existing arrangements and will cultivate denial of any other reality.

As I type this, the unusual attention paid to doomers by alphabet agencies makes sense.  A doomer is a threat to the status-quo.  We are harmless, but keeping track of Greta pays the bills.

« Last Edit: March 26, 2023, 10:49:42 am by K-Dog »

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Re: Energy Errata
« Reply #611 on: March 26, 2023, 11:11:14 am »
My delusion is totally confirmed:  This is in the Bezos Washington Post.



Can you believe this crap?

When Sean Youra was 26 years old and working as an engineer, he started watching documentaries about climate change. Youra, who was struggling with depression and the loss of a family member, was horrified by what he learned about melting ice and rising extreme weather. He started spending hours on YouTube, watching videos made by fringe scientists who warned that the world was teetering on the edge of societal collapse — or even near-term human extinction. Youra started telling his friends and family that he was convinced that climate change couldn’t be stopped, and humanity was doomed.

In short, he says, he became a climate “doomer.”

“It all compounded and just led me down a very dark path,” he said. “I became very detached and felt like giving up on everything.”

That grim view of the planet’s future is becoming more common. Influenced by a barrage of grim U.N. reports — such as the one published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change earlier this week — and negative headlines, a group of people believe that the climate problem cannot, or will not, be solved in time to prevent all-out societal collapse. They are known, colloquially, as climate “doomers.” And some scientists and experts worry that their defeatism — which could undermine efforts to take action — may be just as dangerous as climate denial.


Total nonsense:  This is on my webpage. 



I watch it every month.  I have for years now.  Concentration accelerates and never goes down.  Usually comparison to a year ago is more, close to half a percent consistently.  Last month was an anomaly.  The lowest year to year change I have seen.  Comparison to a year ago is crucial because that trick cancels out seasonal variation.  A clear stair-step to doom is revealed.

**** Bezos for **** facts.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2023, 11:40:23 am by K-Dog »

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Re: Energy Errata
« Reply #612 on: March 26, 2023, 09:31:32 pm »
The spectrum of collapse.  I too have pondered exactly what is collapse.  Change and death are the way of the world.  A doomer has to wonder if they are a bit off.  Is it a problem that doom heads can't accept reality?

No, collapse is unwanted change and collapse is change which could be prevented.  Not accepting the unwanted is a good thing!

In the most recent interview I posted, Nate Hagens mentioned that our bodies like doing whatever it they have been doing for the last six months, be it good for us or not.  We are creatures of habit. 

Doom stalks society but only because people pretend doom is not there.  The denial habit.  If people deal with doom they prepare for the future.  We know people don't deal with doom or prepare for the future.  Preparing for the future cancels doom.  Not going to happen, but in theory doom could be prevented by rational actions.

If collapse could not be prevented it is not collapse, that circumstance is tragic fate.

All good children are taught not to look.



Denial is a product of psychology and social pressure not to defy authority should make any sane person question their sanity.  It is hard to think you can keep dry in a rainstorm.  Even harder to actually do it.

Control has great interest in maintaining denial and fighting doom.  Control wants to maintain existing arrangements and will cultivate denial of any other reality.

As I type this, the unusual attention paid to doomers by alphabet agencies makes sense.  A doomer is a threat to the status-quo.  We are harmless, but keeping track of Greta pays the bills.



The world leaders who recieved her and hung their heads in shame at her "how dare you?!" needed a reason to implement a system that saves enough fossil fuel for an ongoing apparatus of state and enough renewable energy for a poorer population. I just got back from a conference at a resort that the minimum room charge is 2500$/night. No I didn't stay there, but it's the only place so far I have seen these Porsche and Tesla chargers. As I have said, I don't think they can be for everyone currently driving any more sustainably than on oil. The guests at this place appear to make the cut. I tried to attach fotos but files too large.

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Re: Energy Errata
« Reply #613 on: March 27, 2023, 12:26:08 am »
As far as Industrial Civilization is concerned, Collapse has always been inevitable.  Really Homo Sap has been on a collision course with collapse since the development of agriculture.  The only variables are the timeline and the trajectory the collapse takes.  Don't worry though, if it goes slow enough you can convince yourself it's not collapse.

RE

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Re: Energy Errata
« Reply #614 on: March 27, 2023, 01:17:37 am »
"Conspiracy" is the one word  ward-off to ignore facts.

That isn't how the word is defined.

It is defined as: "a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful". Conspiracy theory is something else altogether, defined as: a theory that explains an event or set of circumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators

You'll notice warding off facts isn't included. I will admit that some might use it that way improperly though, during a sort of Gish Gallop routine.

you only wanted to know what word you were using as a one word ward off. It could just as easily be abracadabra or Rumpelstiltskin, so definition is irrelevant.

 YOU refer to "conspiracy" giving zero reasons or facts in support of why you may dismiss anything you label such. I gave YOU numerous examples of things dismissed as conspiracy by your govt being admitted to when the docs are declassified. I mentioned the obvious reasons most Americans now believe Oswald did not act alone and nobody went to the moon. YOU went right on using the single word "conspiracy" as though it is self evident anything bound by that incantation can have no basis



Quote from: Phil Potts
It also dehumanises those that might get silenced.

Well, the Gish Gallop part might, but the definition doesn't say anything about being dehumanizing or silencing either. One of the nice things about defintions of words, and facts, is that mostly they are what they are, facts being something that all parties are expected to agree on as factual in nature, i.e. no real dispute as to them as "fact".

The definition of car does not include driving from Adam Street to  Bergonia Avenue either. 


Quote from: Phil Potts
What I said about tattoos on the guy who started at 48 was an example of a full explanation, one of many I've provided. I didn't define collapse as the tattoo he talked about. I said "controlled civilizational collapse in action" and gave a full breakdown of how that works. To recap, a critical mass of conformist statists with broken spirit are essential to control. So is not using all the oil.

You certainly did have the tattoo idea wrapped up within an overarching concept, and I can see at least a sliver of it. But as I've defined collapse, it is just an irrelevant piece of information along the way, as getting a tattoo isn't of itself the dieoff that cannot be denied. As far as who is, or is not in control, that is open to debate, and your explanation did not appear to link the tattoo to this overarching theme. I don't even know what a "broken spirit" is, let alone what named group has it, or not, or that that subset has announced somewhere or gotten together and given the world the idea that it is required for control. What control? Me? You? Banks and the large institutions that have some attachment to the levers of power?

Your definition is useless except in a posthumous discussion, as I already said twice. The named group is conformist statists as I also said twice. You responded to NF saying essentially that he sees collapse as a process of preparing for a lower energy future, that is for you just doing what you do, farming and as farmgal, breaking horses untamed spirit. If you need a human example, an esteemed academic laureate with accolades out the ass, engaged in avoiding all logical and rational reasoning.

Quote from: Phil Potts
You began with talking about Maga/woke as not being real collapse, though nobody here has said anything about any of that since the new site started.

I did more than talk, I defined a real and undeniable collapse, and within my definition MAGA isn't so much as a pimple on the concept.

While you proclaim ordinary planetary developments as variously a metric or a definition, you did not BEGIN with that. You BEGAN by denouncing a pimple we never mentioned, but is the focus of the people you have said can get paid to post disinformation in line with govt narratives.


Quote from: Phil Potts
Only coincidentally, that's what alphabet agencies are focused on now. As was always said by doomers, the threat of terror and elimination turns to the domestic.

Well now you are talking about governance, and how it happens or comes off the rails. Hitler certainly used the threat of terror and elimination to run a country, as did Stalin. Worked out better for one than another. I don't believe the Swedes suffer from this though, or many other places.

You have obviously not read Sven Larrson

Quote from: Phil Potts
It couldn't be very fulfilling profiling and monitoring an innocuous equestrian like Farmgal and a barber shop quartet of harmless upstarts here. No I don't think all of us do pay the same attention to pattern recognition.

I agree that we don't have the same pattern recognition. Some of us are looking for and focused on a real collapse, the thing us doomers are keyed on, and less about the politics or groups along the way wanting to portray their understanding of the deep state, or energy, or politics, or culture, or banks as the key to something that while often claimed, always seems to sneakily receded around the next corner, each time we turn the current one.

Then there would be nothing for you to discuss. If you can't run your freezer, you can't run your router. No ice, no net. US population declines to Deagal 2025 forecast and you have something to add here only through an oija board.

What then explains your insistence that discussing HOW we arrive is verboten and that we  made wrong predictions and claims, offering no citation or example except imagined things like Tonga disappearing. I've spoken only of things coming over the horizon and now in our face, not disappearing around a corner.


Quote from: Phil Potts
2 billion people dying in a year is just some of us doing what we do and nobody disputes what you mentioned as constituting a collapse.

Exactly. I did a really good definition, to weed out real collapse from the things we pretend are collapse, or might be, or could be tomorrow if only...(fill in the blank). And we then cheapen both the word and the concept. Unfortunately.

YOUR definition is tomorrow. Anything someone else says is in the process, you need to specify the who and why you disagree. Give a full critique. 

Quote from: Phil Potts
I guess there isn't a forum for potential cannibals with modems somewhere to just wait and not say anything about how it's arrived at, hence your time spent telling us not to talk about anything except the completed process.

2 billion dying off isn't a completed process, it is just a metric. In order for that metric to happen, you, me, doomers everywhere will SEE it happening. Slowly at first probably. World population doesn't grow one year. Which means something far worse than Covid showed up. And then it gets worse, quickly. There will be no uncertainty then, because the body count will tell us all along the way.

You need to disprove us on losing access to CNN being a precursor to complete collapse, to insist we will see it from our comfy living rooms. Otherwise I in the southern hemisphere am oblivious to an asteroid or Sarmat putting a dent in another continent.


Quote from: Phil Potts
I already mentioned mass protests in the millions against being enslaved and more recently anti war, so any more in UK will not be covered by the media either.

Sounds sort of like the 60's and Vietnam? Protests aren't collapse. They are protests. And they aren't limited to enslavement, or war or economics, but even more basic things, like health care and food and education. Stopping gun violence and cheering on, or denigrating a political figure. Let us try and not confuse a pretty run of the mill, widespread and common thing with another that is more about survival, rather than preferences in elections or who is getting what slice of the pie and how.

You said a war disrupting food supply was collapse. I said DU munitions have been approved by UK for Ukr and that they poison soil.
U said UK should protest like the Boomers did. I said I've already pointed out anti war protests in the millions in Europe are ignored so more in UK would also be. I never said protests are  completed collapse. Back to the start, you have the food supply of a major donor disrupted.
 Don't waste my time jumping to anything else irrelevant to the topic, if you can never seem to remember what you were talking about.



Quote from: Phil Potts
That's my last reply as I'm sure you have better things to do and I don't like holding forth.

No problem. It was an interesting conversation. And yet for all its voluminosity, I did ask this question 5 days ago, and I'm not sure you posited an anwer.

Do you think that we'll have a collapse, a real collapse, in our lifetimes?


KD was easily able to glean where I'm coming from there and elucidated a similar sentiment. I said there is definitely a Renaissance after this dystopia which is late stage collapsing western civilization. You want to abolish looking at past civilization collapses, but the Bronze Age illustrates;

 To you and Pharoah, Egypt before the famine, pestilence and plague was wonderful, no collapse. To Moses that was already hell and 40 yrs of back to basics nomadic herding and consolidating a strong society was a liberation.




« Last Edit: March 27, 2023, 02:56:16 am by Phil Potts »