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51
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by K-Dog on March 26, 2023, 11:11:14 am »
My delusion is totally confirmed:  This is in the Bezos Washington Post.



Can you believe this crap?

When Sean Youra was 26 years old and working as an engineer, he started watching documentaries about climate change. Youra, who was struggling with depression and the loss of a family member, was horrified by what he learned about melting ice and rising extreme weather. He started spending hours on YouTube, watching videos made by fringe scientists who warned that the world was teetering on the edge of societal collapse — or even near-term human extinction. Youra started telling his friends and family that he was convinced that climate change couldn’t be stopped, and humanity was doomed.

In short, he says, he became a climate “doomer.”

“It all compounded and just led me down a very dark path,” he said. “I became very detached and felt like giving up on everything.”

That grim view of the planet’s future is becoming more common. Influenced by a barrage of grim U.N. reports — such as the one published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change earlier this week — and negative headlines, a group of people believe that the climate problem cannot, or will not, be solved in time to prevent all-out societal collapse. They are known, colloquially, as climate “doomers.” And some scientists and experts worry that their defeatism — which could undermine efforts to take action — may be just as dangerous as climate denial.

Total nonsense:  This is on my webpage. 



I watch it every month.  I have for years now.  Concentration accelerates and never goes down.  Usually comparison to a year ago is more, close to half a percent consistently.  Last month was an anomaly.  The lowest year to year change I have seen.  Comparison to a year ago is crucial because that trick cancels out seasonal variation.  A clear stair-step to doom is revealed.

**** Bezos for **** facts.
52
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by K-Dog on March 26, 2023, 10:40:29 am »
The spectrum of collapse.  I too have pondered exactly what is collapse.  Change and death are the way of the world.  A doomer has to wonder if they are a bit off.  Is it a problem that doom heads can't accept reality?

No, collapse is unwanted change and collapse is change which could be prevented.  Not accepting the unwanted is a good thing!

In the most recent interview I posted, Nate Hagens mentioned that our bodies like doing whatever it they have been doing for the last six months, be it good for us or not.  We are creatures of habit. 

Doom stalks society but only because people pretend doom is not there.  The denial habit.  If people deal with doom they prepare for the future.  We know people don't deal with doom or prepare for the future.  Preparing for the future cancels doom.  Not going to happen, but in theory doom could be prevented by rational actions.

If collapse could not be prevented it is not collapse, that circumstance is tragic fate.

All good children are taught not to look.



Denial is a product of psychology and social pressure not to defy authority should make any sane person question their sanity.  It is hard to think you can keep dry in a rainstorm.  Even harder to actually do it.

Control has great interest in maintaining denial and fighting doom.  Control wants to maintain existing arrangements and will cultivate denial of any other reality.

As I type this, the unusual attention paid to doomers by alphabet agencies makes sense.  A doomer is a threat to the status-quo.  We are harmless, but keeping track of Greta pays the bills.

53
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by K-Dog on March 26, 2023, 10:32:45 am »
The tattoo observation is interesting.  Live half your life thinking they deface the body and give baggage of a past that you can't leave behind.



Then tattoos become popular and the 40 year old brain hunts down something meaningful to justify getting one.  Thinking all the while that this is a free choice.
54
General Discussion / Re: Climate Doom
« Last post by FarmGirl on March 26, 2023, 08:32:57 am »
Quote from: K-Dog on March 25, 2023, 03:43:21 pm

5. ANTARCTIC SEA ICE HITS RECORD LOW



Seasonal variations in the extent of Antarctic sea ice. Bad news arrived in February from scientists monitoring the Antarctic ice cap. The extent of floating sea ice surrounding the frosty continent shrank to a record low as the southern summer peaked, to only 66% of the levels usually present at this time of the year.

That is a cool graphic. I've seen one for the Arctic as well, both are them are far more telling I believe than the endless discussions and whatnot. There is ice. Then there isn't. Would someone care to explain why, other than...you know...stuff is warmer now?
55
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by FarmGirl on March 26, 2023, 08:29:27 am »
Quote from: Phil Potts on March 24, 2023, 07:27:36 pm
"Conspiracy" is the one word  ward-off to ignore facts.

That isn't how the word is defined.

It is defined as: "a secret plan by a group to do something unlawful or harmful". Conspiracy theory is something else altogether, defined as: a theory that explains an event or set of circumstances as the result of a secret plot by usually powerful conspirators

You'll notice warding off facts isn't included. I will admit that some might use it that way improperly though, during a sort of Gish Gallop routine.


Quote from: Phil Potts
It also dehumanises those that might get silenced.

Well, the Gish Gallop part might, but the definition doesn't say anything about being dehumanizing or silencing either. One of the nice things about defintions of words, and facts, is that mostly they are what they are, facts being something that all parties are expected to agree on as factual in nature, i.e. no real dispute as to them as "fact".

Quote from: Phil Potts
What I said about tattoos on the guy who started at 48 was an example of a full explanation, one of many I've provided. I didn't define collapse as the tattoo he talked about. I said "controlled civilizational collapse in action" and gave a full breakdown of how that works. To recap, a critical mass of conformist statists with broken spirit are essential to control. So is not using all the oil.

You certainly did have the tattoo idea wrapped up within an overarching concept, and I can see at least a sliver of it. But as I've defined collapse, it is just an irrelevant piece of information along the way, as getting a tattoo isn't of itself the dieoff that cannot be denied. As far as who is, or is not in control, that is open to debate, and your explanation did not appear to link the tattoo to this overarching theme. I don't even know what a "broken spirit" is, let alone what named group has it, or not, or that that subset has announced somewhere or gotten together and given the world the idea that it is required for control. What control? Me? You? Banks and the large institutions that have some attachment to the levers of power?

Quote from: Phil Potts
You began with talking about Maga/woke as not being real collapse, though nobody here has said anything about any of that since the new site started.

I did more than talk, I defined a real and undeniable collapse, and within my definition MAGA isn't so much as a pimple on the concept.


Quote from: Phil Potts
Only coincidentally, that's what alphabet agencies are focused on now. As was always said by doomers, the threat of terror and elimination turns to the domestic.

Well now you are talking about governance, and how it happens or comes off the rails. Hitler certainly used the threat of terror and elimination to run a country, as did Stalin. Worked out better for one than another. I don't believe the Swedes suffer from this though, or many other places.

Quote from: Phil Potts
It couldn't be very fulfilling profiling and monitoring an innocuous equestrian like Farmgal and a barber shop quartet of harmless upstarts here. No I don't think all of us do pay the same attention to pattern recognition.

I agree that we don't have the same pattern recognition. Some of us are looking for and focused on a real collapse, the thing us doomers are keyed on, and less about the politics or groups along the way wanting to portray their understanding of the deep state, or energy, or politics, or culture, or banks as the key to something that while often claimed, always seems to sneakily receded around the next corner, each time we turn the current one.

Quote from: Phil Potts
2 billion people dying in a year is just some of us doing what we do and nobody disputes what you mentioned as constituting a collapse.

Exactly. I did a really good definition, to weed out real collapse from the things we pretend are collapse, or might be, or could be tomorrow if only...(fill in the blank). And we then cheapen both the word and the concept. Unfortunately.

Quote from: Phil Potts
I guess there isn't a forum for potential cannibals with modems somewhere to just wait and not say anything about how it's arrived at, hence your time spent telling us not to talk about anything except the completed process.

2 billion dying off isn't a completed process, it is just a metric. In order for that metric to happen, you, me, doomers everywhere will SEE it happening. Slowly at first probably. World population doesn't grow one year. Which means something far worse than Covid showed up. And then it gets worse, quickly. There will be no uncertainty then, because the body count will tell us all along the way.

Quote from: Phil Potts
I already mentioned mass protests in the millions against being enslaved and more recently anti war, so any more in UK will not be covered by the media either.

Sounds sort of like the 60's and Vietnam? Protests aren't collapse. They are protests. And they aren't limited to enslavement, or war or economics, but even more basic things, like health care and food and education. Stopping gun violence and cheering on, or denigrating a political figure. Let us try and not confuse a pretty run of the mill, widespread and common thing with another that is more about survival, rather than preferences in elections or who is getting what slice of the pie and how.

Quote from: Phil Potts
That's my last reply as I'm sure you have better things to do and I don't like holding forth.

No problem. It was an interesting conversation. And yet for all its voluminosity, I did ask this question 5 days ago, and I'm not sure you posited an anwer.

Do you think that we'll have a collapse, a real collapse, in our lifetimes?
56
General Discussion / Re: Get ready: More blackouts are coming
« Last post by Nearings fault on March 26, 2023, 06:44:30 am »
Quote from: RE on March 26, 2023, 05:01:53 am
No worries.  As long as 25% pf the lights are on, it's not collapse.

https://www.businessinsider.com/blackouts-power-outages-more-common-climate-change-electric-grid-infrastructure-2023-3

Get ready: More blackouts are coming

RE
Great article. Battery backed up systems are hot commodities right now...
57
General Discussion / Get ready: More blackouts are coming
« Last post by RE on March 26, 2023, 05:01:53 am »
No worries.  As long as 25% pf the lights are on, it's not collapse.

https://www.businessinsider.com/blackouts-power-outages-more-common-climate-change-electric-grid-infrastructure-2023-3

Get ready: More blackouts are coming

RE
58
General Discussion / Bank collapses are just the start of the world’s financial woes – indebted businesses will be next
« Last post by RE on March 26, 2023, 04:29:41 am »
Don't worry, it's not collapse unless 25% of the population dies.

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3214679/bank-collapses-are-just-start-worlds-financial-woes-indebted-businesses-will-be-next

Bank collapses are just the start of the world’s financial woes – indebted businesses will be next

RE
59
General Discussion / Re: Climate Doom
« Last post by K-Dog on March 25, 2023, 03:43:21 pm »
1. EUROPE HIT BY WORST DROUGHT IN 500 YEARS



The landscape around Italy's river Po dried out during the summer of 2022.  The summer of 2022 was like no other across swaths of western and central Europe. The proverbially rainy England didn't see a drop of rain in weeks.

2. PAKISTAN SEES WORST FLOODS IN HISTORY



While water levels in European rivers were hitting record lows, the mountainous Pakistan in southwestern Asia struggled with the exact opposite problem. From June to October 2022, vast areas of the country were submerged in flood waters.

3. HURRICANE IAN BATTERS FLORIDA AND FIONA MAKES LANDFALL IN CANADA



Hurricane Ian seen from the International Space Station.  The Atlantic hurricane season of 2022 started late. For the first time in 25 years, not a single named tropical storm emerged above the Atlantic Ocean in the month of August.

4. FREDDY, THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL STORM EVER, PUMMELS WEST AFRICA TWICE



Cyclone Freddy above Madagascar.  Tropical storm Freddy(opens in new tab) received much less media attention than Ian and Fiona when it rampaged western Africa in February and March 2023. From a weather disaster perspective, however, Freddy was a storm of a kind never seen before.

5. ANTARCTIC SEA ICE HITS RECORD LOW



Seasonal variations in the extent of Antarctic sea ice. Bad news arrived in February from scientists monitoring the Antarctic ice cap. The extent of floating sea ice surrounding the frosty continent shrank to a record low as the southern summer peaked, to only 66% of the levels usually present at this time of the year.
60
General Discussion / Re: Energy Errata
« Last post by Phil Potts on March 24, 2023, 07:27:36 pm »
Quote from: FarmGirl on March 24, 2023, 06:20:21 pm
Quote from: Phil Potts on March 24, 2023, 12:41:28 pm
I'm not the one insisting that a one word incantation wards off all inconvenient fact.

Neither am I. Try not to characterize so far outside of the boundaries that I am obviously drawing with thorough explanations. If you don't like the boundaries I've defined, feel free to offer your own.

Quote from: Phil Potts
I'm also not the one insisting we must be like an animal capable of only recognising that another animal is dead, but not thinking it is going to die itself (constant expressions of wonderment and awe at low EROEI seeing out the boomer generation with a market economy, notwithstanding).

I also made no comparisons to any other species. You wish to do so, fine, then define what you even mean, non-humans being in awe of low eroei or market economies. Certainly I didn't mention much about those topics either in my definition.

Quote from: Phil Potts
The difference between myself and most others of my cohort is that I notice a lot more changes and trends, make more associations and reflect much more on a systematic theory of everything.

Outstanding. And you are presuming that all us other older farts don't do the same? Just because I like a simple metric doesn't mean it doesn't start off with exactly the kind of changes and trends analysis that you reflect on.

Quote from: Phil Potts
When I got in the car this afternoon, I caught some interview about tattoo removal and the interviewer saying he got his first tattoo at 48. He said it was because it really meant something to him. To me this is simply another quintessential example of controlled civilizational collapse in action.

There is nothing wrong with you defining collapse as middle aged people getting tattoos. In my opinion, it cheapens the use of the word among those of us who have been paying attention to the topic, and usually discussing what I will call REAL collapse, as middle aged folks getting tattooes wasn't much of a hot topic at the old Diner, and this is possibly the first time I've heard someone want to use it as an indicator.

Quote from: Phil Potts
If you want to say we have had our lifetimes, then you must say also we have had our civilization.

Now THIS strikes me as an honest thought on what I've been saying. It seems reasonable the more I think of it, so I will agree with you. Us old farts have had our lifetimes, and lived in our civilization. Based on my familiariity with newer folks, I can't say I like what they are deciding to create for their civilization any more than I like tattoos, or they like my opinion on certain topics and then call me "boomer".

Quote from: Phil Potts
Losing 25% of population a year results in complete extinction in 4 yrs. Apparently we would still haove access to nternet to only comment on real collapse and not say anything unsettling.

25% year over reductions don't involve the same number each year. 25% reduction in the first year of 8 billion in population is 2 billion, leaving 6 billion remaining. 25% of 6 billion is 1.5 billion dead, 4.5 billion remaining. Another 25% reduction in 4.5? 1.125 down to 3.375. Next is 0.84 billion dead, and a final total of 2.5 billion, give or take. Etc etc.

Quote from: Phil Potts
The UK has just approved supplying depleted uranium ammunition for use in ukr. This not only responsible for the Gulf War Syndrome, but poisons ground so food supply from a major world source is ruined. See no evil, hear no evil.

I imagine if people in the UK care there will be riots in the streets, recalls on all politicians, calls for defunding the military or government. If they aren't, well, the world is a different type society from the one us old farts had, isn't it?

"Conspiracy" is the one word  ward-off to ignore facts. It also dehumanises those that might get silenced.  Very different from investigating and assessing any suggestion of conspiracy on its merit.  In previous world wars, undermining the war effort by dissenting was jailable and this time round will be no different.

What I said about tattoos on the guy who started at 48 was an example of a full explanation, one of many I've provided. I didn't define collapse as the tattoo he talked about. I said "controlled civilizational collapse in action" and gave a full breakdown of how that works. To recap, a critical mass of conformist statists with broken spirit are essential to control. So is not using all the oil.


You began with talking about Maga/woke as not being real collapse, though nobody here has said anything about any of that since the new site started. Only coincidentally, that's what alphabet agencies are focused on now. As was always said by doomers, the threat of terror and elimination turns to the domestic. It couldn't be very fulfilling profiling and monitoring an innocuous equestrian like Farmgal and a barber shop quartet of harmless upstarts here. No I don't think all of us do pay the same attention to pattern recognition.

Your assessment of someone else's version on the process of energy scarcity as collapse was 'just some of us doing what we do' in taking action to survive the decline.  That raises the question whether something all of us do in dying can be collapse either.

2 billion people dying in a year is just some of us doing what we do and nobody disputes what you mentioned as constituting a collapse. I guess there isn't a forum for potential cannibals with modems somewhere to just wait and not say anything about how it's arrived at, hence your time spent telling us not to talk about anything except the completed process. That is telling us to also be like the kangaroo recognising road kill and not thinking about how demise also happens to itself.

I already mentioned mass protests in the millions against being enslaved and more recently anti war, so any more in UK will not be covered by the media either.

The year on year figures don't conform to typical plague, Petri dish, or even Aushwitz play outs. Nevertheless, whether it's year one or year 5, it fits with renaissance and that's the process i look forward to.

That's my last reply as I'm sure you have better things to do and I don't like holding forth.



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