Post by: FarmGirl on April 01, 2023, 01:15:23 pm
A bizzy year beginning in Tornado Alley. So far about double the seasonal average.
https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/mar/31/widespread-damage-reported-across-central-arkansas-on-friday/
Power outages in tens of thousands, widespread damage reported from Arkansas tornado
RE
Someone will say that tornadoes have been around forever and climate change has nothing to do with,an increased stochastic propensity.****.
How quaint, A) climate change deniers are still a thing, and B) has anyone ever claimed that tornadoes aren't a thing? As long as there was an atmosphere around creating thunderstorms anyway. If any show up, just ask them how without climate change we would ever have gotten the wonderful country of Canada, there weren't any Great Lakes to swim in but maybe some great ice skating was available?, there couldn't be any Swedish Bikini Team because there would be no Sweden, and the Yucatan Penninsula almost touched Florida, which was once more than twice as wide as it is now! Mexicans could just swim to the US back then.
(https://qph.cf2.quoracdn.net/main-qimg-3db3a7d7800702024dd72dd686cb6eca)
Post by: RE on April 01, 2023, 10:46:26 am
A bizzy year beginning in Tornado Alley. So far about double the seasonal average.
https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/mar/31/widespread-damage-reported-across-central-arkansas-on-friday/
Power outages in tens of thousands, widespread damage reported from Arkansas tornado
RE
Someone will say that tornadoes have been around forever and climate change has nothing to do with,an increased stochastic propensity.****.
Also. it's not collapse because 25% of the population didn't die and they're going to rebuild the town.
RE
Post by: K-Dog on April 01, 2023, 09:40:46 am
A bizzy year beginning in Tornado Alley. So far about double the seasonal average.
https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/mar/31/widespread-damage-reported-across-central-arkansas-on-friday/
Power outages in tens of thousands, widespread damage reported from Arkansas tornado
RE
Someone will say that tornadoes have been around forever and climate change has nothing to do with,
Post by: RE on April 01, 2023, 12:54:16 am
https://www.arkansasonline.com/news/2023/mar/31/widespread-damage-reported-across-central-arkansas-on-friday/
Power outages in tens of thousands, widespread damage reported from Arkansas tornado
RE
Post by: FarmGirl on March 26, 2023, 08:32:57 am
5. ANTARCTIC SEA ICE HITS RECORD LOW
(https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigzgPk2c9Y0yaeUe7PWIEUrPboDUjv3GZndWbCHIB2Jw08hqw1klVeL90TZvjqDKcZY9CR4Br-KjmMlaG8ij-4-d-DOLQzbr9U1aht44yPlCaji1z77rrorFrD4feX4N2LI_Ohb_vpi_2rNoWCBSj3up46imeZfEZQVPvr5ZHyVCKtovu-WeJ2nrFd/w400-h400/antarctica.gif)
Seasonal variations in the extent of Antarctic sea ice. Bad news arrived in February from scientists monitoring the Antarctic ice cap. The extent of floating sea ice surrounding the frosty continent shrank to a record low as the southern summer peaked, to only 66% of the levels usually present at this time of the year.
That is a cool graphic. I've seen one for the Arctic as well, both are them are far more telling I believe than the endless discussions and whatnot. There is ice. Then there isn't. Would someone care to explain why, other than...you know...stuff is warmer now?
Post by: K-Dog on March 25, 2023, 03:43:21 pm
(https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhNgt182y9cRq4YFFts58Y9EG9WSRE9wYaopOyfvQglm1cSklVKt1ogXkZbKeV6fhvxvKtxcLRyL94nHlOBrUlEMGNGMqXc927lyZavhXSub3qUyiGvK8XQusGTajXdznj0TyNiQu6APBLCSedh6SUOTVjlnF9vqPVPvACbmC1JVXapcpnHuV4kYzJU/w400-h225/road.gif)
The landscape around Italy's river Po dried out during the summer of 2022. The summer of 2022 was like no other across swaths of western and central Europe. The proverbially rainy England didn't see a drop of rain in weeks.
2. PAKISTAN SEES WORST FLOODS IN HISTORY
(https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhGKtOP-wdtJHjH_W-6TDNsalYILBOVNbDiQKYfxmBpLwMVO6NCHsNz2ANW17qnlDcYC6WEwh46eNaG9--n0xlm3hDZ705iTVEriRjIzG4WmpojNJYSlfVzj9p8nn9t2Rc282fPPTmxOfXqBlZLsRm_8UdozkEcJsvobkMTRc3H3NRACRB4EWNaFJrz/w400-h225/flood.gif)
While water levels in European rivers were hitting record lows, the mountainous Pakistan in southwestern Asia struggled with the exact opposite problem. From June to October 2022, vast areas of the country were submerged in flood waters.
3. HURRICANE IAN BATTERS FLORIDA AND FIONA MAKES LANDFALL IN CANADA
(https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiAjc04t_rADTITIZxp4x1qocCpGctKXXMNCUNHTqKlFK3-SVGg4r0HCO3zdPDffjOmpokBiaMpHFRs7AKYyQ92Ixh-RktLebd16WeEF2ZbWcLkCZfYiuKtaPnBl9r1lh3VVMJzko9Vz5TgXLsaLtH6vSXf7EDlG8tnoDK7DAg8cDu0ZEZ1oxyTGFb/w400-h225/huricane.jpg)
Hurricane Ian seen from the International Space Station. The Atlantic hurricane season of 2022 started late. For the first time in 25 years, not a single named tropical storm emerged above the Atlantic Ocean in the month of August.
4. FREDDY, THE LONGEST-LIVED TROPICAL STORM EVER, PUMMELS WEST AFRICA TWICE
(https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj5rgZ06n8QIVvUJCk97T99YkJ5Sxtuda2Y14HmZgQliNa-iVsqLGkV61lkUKq9VjAZ566UHiBmtbgHC071StIJs5pGphmM_ZLm_1BsW47juRzsGaSpusUSwNs63hSYUCW3T-T4sqx3A7i6P8RMZ8hM2Pz9LjjLdkxB11kj-2PZCGlVeBg3yez8rSyB/w400-h225/land.jpg)
Cyclone Freddy above Madagascar. Tropical storm Freddy(opens in new tab) received much less media attention than Ian and Fiona when it rampaged western Africa in February and March 2023. From a weather disaster perspective, however, Freddy was a storm of a kind never seen before.
5. ANTARCTIC SEA ICE HITS RECORD LOW
(https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigzgPk2c9Y0yaeUe7PWIEUrPboDUjv3GZndWbCHIB2Jw08hqw1klVeL90TZvjqDKcZY9CR4Br-KjmMlaG8ij-4-d-DOLQzbr9U1aht44yPlCaji1z77rrorFrD4feX4N2LI_Ohb_vpi_2rNoWCBSj3up46imeZfEZQVPvr5ZHyVCKtovu-WeJ2nrFd/w400-h400/antarctica.gif)
Seasonal variations in the extent of Antarctic sea ice. Bad news arrived in February from scientists monitoring the Antarctic ice cap. The extent of floating sea ice surrounding the frosty continent shrank to a record low as the southern summer peaked, to only 66% of the levels usually present at this time of the year.
Post by: RE on March 05, 2023, 08:06:27 am
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/01/europe/greta-thunberg-wind-farm-norway-sami-climate-intl/index.html
RE
Post by: RE on March 01, 2023, 01:51:20 am
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2023/02/22/dry-venice-canals-italian-drought/11321656002/
'Never-ending drought emergency': Italy's iconic Venice canals have dried up
RE
Post by: FarmGirl on January 31, 2023, 07:08:34 pm
Following failed attempts to deny climate science, vested business and political interests are proceeding, with the support of many governments, to mine coal, sink oil wells and frack hydrocarbon gas, regardless of the consequences in term of global heating, sea level rise, inundation of islands and coastal zones, collapse of the permafrost, heat waves, floods, ocean acidification, migration of climate zones and dissemination of plastic particles, rendering the future of much of the biosphere uninhabitable.
Beyond an interesting run on sentence, vested business and political interests exist for one reason...the rapacious and all devouring human beast that can't stop, won't stop, refuses to stop....and those interests keep the supply coming. Stop consuming, stop wanting more, stop making babies...what sort of perspective thinks that the drug addicts problems are only caused by the dealers? The one that is looking for someone else to blame, because they dare not look in the mirror and admit the truth?
We should all enjoy the time we are given as best we can, because none of us gets out of here alive, the end itself is undoubtedly a thought more traumatic than the why. And when the few left posting here expire (sooner rather than later as their are no youngsters around), our obituaries will not read "killed by climate change". It will be the normal stuff, heart attacks and strokes and accidents, maybe some bad weather, but even if killed by a tornado, does it matter that it is an F2 instead of an F1 because of our slowly warming world? Certainly not to the deceased.
Oh what a tangled web we weave, when we first practice to deceive. Ourselves. Silly monkeys we are.
Post by: John of Wallan on January 29, 2023, 09:41:21 pm
Technically antarctica has less available fresh water as all theirs is in the form of ice... For all the pedants out there...
Been good for my trees, which I have pretty welll gone through summer so far without watering. Only 2 drowned. Usually they die in summer from lack of water in a hot spell. Have planted another english Willow in a boggy spot, which is going great. (Good for gunpowder manufacture no less!)
Still talk of an El-nio event developing later this year. That will be the test of how well we think we have prepared. I might put in another tank over winter.
I dont argue with anyone over whether climate change is real or not any more. I just prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
JOW
link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
SUNDAY, JANUARY 29, 2023
The global climate change suicide pact
by Andrew Glikson
Despite of deceptively-claimed mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in parts of the world, ongoing burning of domestic and exported fossil fuels world-wide continues to change the composition of the atmosphere, enriching it in greenhouse gases by yet another ~2 ppm CO₂ (2022: 418.95 ppm; CH₄: 1915 ppb; N₂0: 337 ppb), reaching levels commensurate with those of the Miocene (23.03 to 5.333 Ma) at rise rates exceeding any in the geological record of the last 66 million years (Glikson, 2020) (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Global 1880-2021 annual average temperatures (adapted by UCAR from ClimateCentral).
Since 1880 mean global temperatures rose at a rate of 0.08°C per decade, from 1981 by 0.18°C per decade and more when emitted aerosols are accounted for (Hansen et al., in Berwyn, 2022). According to Will Steffen, Australia’s leading climate scientist “there was already a chance we have triggered a global tipping cascade that would take us to a less habitable Hothouse Earth climate, regardless of whether we reduced emissions” (Figure 2).
Figure 2. Global mean temperature profile since 200 AD projected to beyond 2000 AD (Will Steffen)
Over a brief span of less than two centuries (Figure 1) anthropogenic reversal of the carbon cycle induced the emission of some 1.5 10¹² tonnes of CO₂ and an increased release of 150% more CH₄ from the crust, accumulated in sediments for hundreds of million years through photosynthesis and calcification, as well as from permafrost and oceans. Permeation of the atmosphere and the hydrosphere with the toxic residues of ancient plants and organisms, poisoning the biosphere, is leading to the Sixth mass extinction of species in the history of nature.
Following failed attempts to deny climate science, vested business and political interests are proceeding, with the support of many governments, to mine coal, sink oil wells and frack hydrocarbon gas, regardless of the consequences in term of global heating, sea level rise, inundation of islands and coastal zones, collapse of the permafrost, heat waves, floods, ocean acidification, migration of climate zones and dissemination of plastic particles, rendering the future of much of the biosphere uninhabitable.
Figure 3. Europe: Maximum extreme temperatures, July 17-23, 2002.
The progression of global warming is unlikely to be linear as the flow of cold ice melt water from Greenland and Antarctica glaciers would cool parts of the ocean and in part the continents (Figure 4), leading toward a stadial-type phenomenon, the classic case of which is symbolized by the Younger dryas cool period 12,900 to 11,700 years ago.
Figure 4. Projected transient stadial cooling events (Hansen et al., 2016)
National and international legal systems appear unable to restrict the saturation of the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, as governments preside over the worst calamity in natural history since the demise of the dinosaurs. Facing heatwaves (Figure 3), fires, floods and sea level rise, those responsible may in part remain oblivious to the magnitude of the consequences, waking up when it is too late.
There was a time when leaders fell on their sword when defeated in battle or lose their core beliefs, nowadays most not even resign their privileged positions to resist the existential danger posed to advanced life, including human civilization, preoccupied as nations are with preparations for nuclear wars.
It is long past time to declare a global climate and nuclear emergency.
Andrew Glikson
A/Prof. Andrew Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia
Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
Post by: John of Wallan on January 14, 2023, 09:16:40 pm
Often good podcasts on all things environmental.... This episode I found quite interesting.
I often listen to them on long drives in between Roger Water, Cream, Pink Floyd, Stones, Stepenwolf, The Who, Led Zep and Deep Purple tracks.. Not a huge Jeff Beck fan, but surprising how often he played on tracks I listen to, and he was definately one of the most talented guitarists I have heard. (In case you you were in a mine shaft all week: he died a couple of days ago)
Anyway, I digress...
Some Text:
Dark Science: Gone Glaciers and Sudden Warming
Posted on January 11, 2023, by Radio Ecoshock
Half the world’s glaciers will disappear within a single lifetime. Breaking science with Dr. David Rounce. Netherlands researcher Leon Simons: geoengineering has been cooling the planet for decades. That is over now. Co-author of the new bombshell from James Hansen tackles more warming revealed. Hansen predicts sea level rise much higher than thought and up to 10 degrees C hotter. If true, catastrophe is on the near horizon.
Link:
https://www.ecoshock.org/2023/01/dark-science-gone-glaciers-and-sudden-warming.html
Post by: K-Dog on January 13, 2023, 09:49:34 am
Hmm.
Nothing I say will change much...
Already 1.2 degrees above baseline when 0.5 degrees was probably the real tipping point. Everything else has just been political compromises to pander to interest groups.
::)
JOW
Nothing is going to change the outcome. CO2 concentration accelerates. The question is, will humans be gone before forests return to Greenland.
(https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailyhawker.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2018%2F12%2FSentinelese.png&hash=82a6ed484cc36d3079d43fd407a5011235f68172)
On my website I am writing a novelette. Tell me what you think. Unlike doom your suggestions may affect the outcome.
Post by: John of Wallan on January 11, 2023, 11:23:32 pm
Nothing I say will change much...
Already 1.2 degrees above baseline when 0.5 degrees was probably the real tipping point. Everything else has just been political compromises to pander to interest groups.
::)
JOW
Link:
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/the-past-eight-years-were-the-hottest-on-record-despite-la-nina-20230112-p5cc5k.html
Text:
The past eight years were the hottest on record, despite La Nina
Nick O'Malley
By Nick O'Malley
January 12, 2023 — 4.19pm
The past eight years have been the warmest on record, despite the cooling effect of three consecutive La Nina weather patterns, while extreme weather caused disasters across the world in 2022, according to new analysis by the World Meteorological Organisation.
The warmest eight years have all been since 2015, with 2016, 2019 and 2020 constituting the top three, says the WMO report. An exceptionally strong El Nino event occurred in 2016, which contributed to record global temperatures.
An island north of Athens on fire in 2021, as Greece grappled with its worst heatwave in decades.Credit:AP
Though temperature changes between years are often small, since the 1980s every decade has been hotter than the one before it, as predicted by climate change modelling.
A report published this week by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, which uses some of the same data sets and provides climate information to the European Union, shows the annual average temperature was 0.3 degrees above the period of 1991-2020, which equates to approximately 1.2 degrees higher than the period 1850-1900, the baseline normally referred to as the pre-industrial era.
This makes 2022 the eighth year in a row with temperatures more than 1 degree Celsius above the pre-industrial level, says the report.
UK swelters through hottest day ever recorded
The UK has sweltered through its hottest day ever recorded, with temperatures pushing past 40C.
“2022 was yet another year of climate extremes across Europe and globally,” Samantha Burgess, the deputy head of the climate change service, said in a statement.
“These events highlight that we are already experiencing the devastating consequences of our warming world,” she said.
WMO Secretary-General Professor Petteri Taalas said extreme weather events last year “claimed far too many lives and livelihoods, and undermined health, food, energy and water security and infrastructure.
“Large areas of Pakistan were flooded, with major economic losses and human casualties. Record-breaking heatwaves have been observed in China, Europe, North and South America. The long-lasting drought in the Horn of Africa threatens a humanitarian catastrophe.”
The worlds’ oceans were also the hottest-ever in 2022, beating previous records set in 2021, 2020 and 2019, according to new research published in the journal Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.
As excess heat in the atmosphere is absorbed by oceans, these temperatures are considered a key climate change indicator.
“The state of our oceans can measure the world’s health, and judging by the updated oceanic observations … we need a doctor,” said the study’s authors in a statement.
They found that the amount of heat added to the oceans in 2022 is equivalent to 100 times the total global electricity generation last year.
Nick O'Malley is National Environment and Climate Editor for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age. He is also a senior writer and a former US correspondent.Connect via email.
Post by: John of Wallan on January 03, 2023, 01:31:51 pm
Last 4 years have seen fires, plagues and floods down here.
Whats could possibly come next?
I am stocking up on cigars and cogbac. Wont help the situation, but at least I can be comfortable.
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
TUESDAY, JANUARY 3, 2023
A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold soon
A huge temperature rise threatens to unfold, as the already dire situation threatens to turn catastrophic due to the combined impact of a number of developments and feedbacks.
The upcoming El Niño
Temperatures are currently suppressed as we're in the depth of a persistent La Niña event. It is rare for a La Niña event to last as long as the current one does, as illustrated by the NASA image below and discussed in this NASA post.
The above image also indicates that a strong El Niño has become more common over the years. The above image was created using data up to September 2022. La Niña has since continued, as illustrated by the NOAA image on the right. NOAA adds that the dashed black line indicates that La Niña is expected to transition to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2023.
Chances are that we'll move into the next El Niño in the course of 2023. Moving from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as illustrated by the image below.
[ image adapted from NOAA, from earlier post ]
Sunspots
The upcoming El Niño looks set to coincide with a high number of sunspots. The number of sunspots is forecast to reach a peak in July 2025 and recent numbers are higher than expected, as illustrated by the image on the right, from NOAA.
An analysis in an earlier post concludes that the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C. Recent numbers of sunspots have been high. This confirms the study mentioned in the earlier post that warns that the peak of this cycle could rival the top few since records began, which would further increase the difference.
Joint impact of El Niño and sunspots
In conclusion, the joint impact of a strong El Niño and high sunspots could make a difference of more than 0.65°C. This rise could trigger further developments and feedbacks that altogether could cause a temperature rise from pre-industrial of as much as 18.44°C by 2026.
Further developments and feedbacks
A combination of further developments and feedbacks could cause a huge temperature rise. An example of this is the decline of the cryosphere, i.e. the global snow and ice cover.
Antarctic sea ice extent is currently at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image on the right. Antarctic sea ice extent reached a record low on February 25, 2022, and Antarctic sea ice extent looks set to get even lower this year.
Global sea ice extent is also at a record low for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, which shows that global sea ice extent was 4.6 million km² on January 2, 2023.
The image below is from tropicaltidbits.com and shows a forecast for September 2023 of the 2-meter temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius and based on 1984-2009 model climatology. The anomalies are forecast to be very high for the Arctic Ocean, as well as for the Southern Ocean around Antarctica, which spells bad news for sea ice at both hemispheres.
Loss of sea ice results in loss of albedo and loss of the latent heat buffer that - when present - consumes ocean heat as the sea ice melts. These combined losses could result in a large additional temperature rise, while there are further contributors to the temperature rise, such as thawing of terrestrial permafrost and associated changes such as deformation of the Jet Stream and additional ocean heat moving into the Arctic from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean.
There are many further developments and feedbacks that could additionally speed up the temperature rise, such as the (currently accelerating) rise of greenhouse gas emissions, falling away of the aerosol masking effect, more biomass being burned for energy and an increase in forest and waste fires.
As said, these developments and feedbacks could jointly cause a temperature rise from pre-industrial of as much as 18.44°C by 2026, as discussed at the Extinction page. Keep in mind that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post and underpinned by this post.
The situation is dire and threatens to turn catastrophic soon. The right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.
Links
• NASA - La Niña Times Three
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/150691/la-nina-times-three
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html
• Cataclysmic Alignment
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html
• NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Monthly Global Climate Report for October 2022, retrieved November 16, 2022
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/2022010/supplemental/page-4
• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html
• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html
• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html
• Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol - by Peter Manhausen et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05122-0
• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
• When will we die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html
• When will humans go extinct?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/02/when-will-humans-go-extinct.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
Post by: RE on December 25, 2022, 10:38:27 am
https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/buffalo-new-york-lake-effect-blizzard-turns-deadly-power-outages-rescues
Western New York blizzard declared ‘major disaster’ as death toll rises; thousands without power on Christmas
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on December 23, 2022, 03:52:59 pm
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 22, 2022
Wild Winter Weather
[ posted earlier at facebook ]
The image on the right shows a forecast of very low temperatures over North America with a temperature of -40 °C / °F highlighted (green circle at center) for December 23, 2022 14:00 UTC.
As the image shows, temperatures over large parts of North America are forecast to be even lower than the temperature at the North Pole.
The combination image below illustrates this further, showing temperatures as low as -50.3°C or -58.6°F in Alaska on December 22, 2022 at 17:00 UTC, while at the same time the temperature at the North Pole was -13.6°C or 7.4°F.
The Jet Stream
The image below shows the Jet Stream (250 hPa) on December 13, 2022, stretched out vertically and reaching the North Pole as well as the South Pole, while sea surface temperature anomalies are as high as 11°C or 19.7°F from 1981-2011 at the green circle.
The Jet Stream used to circumnavigate the globe within a narrow band from West to East (due to the Coriolis Force), and it used to travel at relatively high speed, fuelled by the temperature difference between the tropics and the poles.
[ posted earlier at facebook ]
As the above image shows, the Pacific Ocean is currently cooler at the tropics and warmer further to the north (compared to 1981-2011), which narrows this temperature difference and in turn makes the Jet Stream wavier. Accordingly, the Jet Stream is going up high into the Arctic before descending deep down over North America.
The image on the right shows air pressure at sea level on December 22, 2022. High sea surface temperatures make air rise, lowering air pressure at the surface to levels as low as 973 hPa over the Pacific. Conversely, a more wavy Jet Stream enables cooler air to flow from the Arctic to North America, raising air pressure at the surface to levels as high as 1056 hPa.
On December 22, 2022, the Jet Stream reached very high speeds over the Pacific, fuelled by high sea surface temperature anomalies. The image on the right shows the Jet Stream moving over the North Pacific at speeds as high as 437 km/h or 271 mph (with a Wind Power Density of 349.2 kW/m², at the green circle).
The Jet Stream then collides with higher air pressure and moves up into the Arctic, and subsequently descends deep down over North America, carrying along cold air from the Arctic. Distortion of the Jet Stream also results in the formation of circular wind patterns that further accelerate the speed of the Jet Stream.
The image on the right shows the Jet Stream moving over North America at speeds as high as 366 km/h or 227 mph (green circle). The image also shows high waves in the North Pacific.
La Niña / El Niño
The low sea surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific Ocean are in line with the current La Niña.
The fact that such extreme weather events occur while we're in the depth of a persistent La Niña is worrying. The next El Niño could push up temperatures further, which would hit the Arctic most strongly. This would further narrow the difference between temperatures at the Equator and the North Pole, thus making the Jet Stream more wavy, which also enables warm air to move into the Arctic, further accelerating feedbacks in the Arctic.
The image below, from NOAA, indicates that the next El Niño is likely to emerge soon.
Conclusion
The situation is dire and calls for immediate, comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
Links
• nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net
• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html
• Coriolis Force
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coriolis_force
• Wind Power Density
http://educypedia.karadimov.info/library/Lesson1_windenergycalc.pdf
• Extreme Weather
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extreme-weather.html
• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html
• NOAA - Multivariate ENSO Index Version 2 (MEI.v2)
https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
Post by: K-Dog on December 23, 2022, 01:46:53 pm
https://youtu.be/Ln2JRqIlMuM
Climate Change and Human Extinction
Post by: RE on December 19, 2022, 08:49:07 am
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/12/15/alaska-native-community-relocates-as-climate-crisis-ravages-homes
Alaska Native community relocates as climate crisis ravages homes
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on December 17, 2022, 11:22:34 am
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
text:
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 16, 2022
The short lifespan of technological civilizations and the future of Homo sapiens
by Andrew Glikson
In his book ‘Collapse’ (2011) Jared Diamond portrays the fate of societies which Choose to Fail or Succeed. On a larger scale the Fermi’s paradox suggests that advanced technological civilizations may constitute ephemeral entities in the galaxy, destined to collapse over short periods. Such an interpretation of Fermi’s paradox, corroborated by recent terrestrial history, implies that the apparent absence of radio signals from Milky Way planets and beyond may be attributed to an inherently self-destructive nature of civilizations which reached the ability to propagate radio waves, consistent with Carl Sagan’s views. It can be expected therefore that the number of advanced technological societies in the universe will be proportional to their average lifetime, perhaps lasting no more than a few centuries. Inexplicably, the behavior of Homo “sapiens” reveals the reality of Fermi’s paradox, unless humans can wake up in time.
Since the onset of the Neolithic about ~10,000 years ago open-ended combustion of wood, coal, oil, methane and gas for production of steam power and electricity (Figure 1), and of uranium to generate nuclear power, constrain the life expectancy of industrial civilizations through proliferation of greenhouse gases, alteration of the chemistry of the atmosphere and proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons, testifying to the relevance of Fermi’s paradox in the 20-21 centuries.
Geological and astronomical studies establish Earth is unique among the terrestrial planets in harboring advanced life forms, including colonial life since as early as ~3.5 billion years ago. Should the fate of Homo sapiens be recorded, history would tell that, while the atmosphere was overheating, oceans acidifying and radioactivity rising, humans never ceased to saturate the atmosphere with greenhouse gases, mine uranium, unleash fatal wars and fire rockets at the planets. All the time indulging in sports games and inundating the airwaves with gratuitous words, false promises, misconstrued assumptions and simple lies ─ betraying their future generations and a multitude of species on the only haven of life known in the solar system.
Fig. 1. A combined night lights image of Earth signifying global civilization. NASA
In a new paper titled ‘Global warming in the pipeline’, Hansen et al. (2022) state: “glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity is at least ~4°C for doubled CO₂ with likely range 3.5-5.5°C. Greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing is 4.1 W/m² larger in 2021 than in 1750, equivalent to 2xCO₂ forcing. Global warming in the pipeline is greater than prior estimates. Eventual global warming due to today's GHG forcing alone -- after slow feedbacks operate -- is about 10°C. Human-made aerosols are a major climate forcing, mainly via their effect on clouds ... A hinge-point in global warming occurred in 1970 as increased GHG warming outpaced aerosol cooling, leading to global warming of 0.18°C per decade.”
The inevitable consequence is a shift in the position of the Earth’s climate zones, a decline in the Earth’s albedo (a climatologically significant ~0.5 W/m² decrease over two decades), a rise in greenhouse gases at a geologically unprecedented rate of 2-3 ppm/year), acidification of the oceans (by about 26 percent), receding ice sheets, rising sea levels (~20 cm since 1900), changes in vegetation, forests and soils, a shift in state of the climate and mass extinction, with humans are driving around one million species to extinction.
For longer than 50 years few were aware that a rise in atmospheric CO₂ on the scale of ~100 ppm CO₂ at the annual rate of 2 - 3 ppm per year, could lead to the unhabitability of large parts of Earth (The Uninhabitable Earth, by David Wallace-Wells) (Figure 2A). Now we find ourselves surrounded by the consequences ─ hydrocarbon saturation of air and water, runaway global heating, acidification, dissemination of micro-plastics, habitat destruction, radioactive overload, proliferation of chemical weapons ─ In confirmation of the reality of Fermi’s Paradox.
But just at the time the world was increasingly overwhelmed by extreme weather events, severe fires and floods, climate scientists were increasingly ignored, replaced by politicians, bureaucrats, economists, strategists and vested interests ignorant of the basic laws of physics and of the principles which control the atmosphere-ocean system. Policies and promises guided by the science have been betrayed and meaningful mitigation and adaptation negated by the opening of new coal mines and gas fields. Cold war strategies violating the United Nation charter were depleting the resources required for mitigation of the looming climate catastrophe. Within a blink of geological eye, at a rate unprecedented since the extinction of the dinosaurs, large regions of Earth were becoming increasingly uninhabitable for a multitude of species, surpassing 350 ppm CO₂ and approaching Miocene (5.3 – 23.0 Ma)-like conditions (Figure 2B). All along humans continued busily developing a veritable doomsday machine near 1300 nuclear warheads-strong threatening release within seconds.
Fig. 2. (A) Upper Holocene temperatures. (B). The Middle Miocene long-term continental (brown) and marine (blue) temperature change. Red arrow points to the present (2022) average global temperature of 13.9°C NOAA.
That humans are capable of committing the most horrendous crimes upon each other, on other species and on nature, including mass exterminations, has been demonstrated during the 20th century by the Nazi concentration camps and by genocidal conflicts such as in Viet Nam, Cambodia, Laos, Rwanda, Yemen, Iraq, Afghanistan, Bosnia, Ukraine ─ the list goes on …
Fig. 3. Tsar Bomba, exploded above Novaya Zemlya
The ultimate step toward the Fermi’s paradox has been reached following nuclear experiments in New Mexico, Novaya Zemlya (Figure 3), the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the rising prospects of a nuclear war, with consequent firestorms, radiation from fallout, a nuclear winter, and electromagnetic pulses looming ever greater. According to a paper by Robock and Toon (2012) ‘Self-assured destruction: The climate impacts of nuclear war’, a thermonuclear war could lead to the end of modern civilization, due to a long-lasting nuclear winter and the destruction of crops. In one model the average temperature of Earth during a nuclear winter, where black smoke from cities and industries rise into the upper stratosphere, lowers global temperatures by 7 – 8° Celsius for several years.
As stated by Hansen et al. (2012): “Burning all fossil fuels would create a different planet than the one that humanity knows. The paleoclimate record and ongoing climate change make it clear that the climate system would be pushed beyond tipping points, setting in motion irreversible changes, including ice sheet disintegration with a continually adjusting shoreline, extermination of a substantial fraction of species on the planet, and increasingly devastating regional climate extremes”.
A nuclear war in the background of carbon saturated atmosphere can only lead to extreme damage to the life support systems of the planet. The propensity of “sapiens” to genocide and ecocide, are hardly masked by the prevailing Orwellian language of politicians in the absence of meaningful action to avert the demise of the biosphere as we know it. Whereas the ultimate consequences of global heating are likely to occur within a century, including temperature polarities including heat waves and regional cooling of ocean regions by ice melt flow from Antarctica and Greenland ice sheets (Gikson 2019), a nuclear war on the scale of the MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction) can erupt on a time scale of minutes …
On July 16, 1945, witnessing the atomic test at the Trinity site, New Mexico, Robert Oppenheimer, the chief nuclear scientist (Figure 4), cited the Hindu scripture of Shiva from the Bhagavad Gita: “Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds”. Then, as stated by Albert Einstein: “The splitting of the atom has changed everything, except for man’s way of thinking, and thus we drift into unparalleled catastrophes”.
Fig. 4. Robert Oppenheimer and Albert Einstein in 1947
Andrew Glikson
A/Professor Andrew Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia
16 December 2022
Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
Post by: RE on December 15, 2022, 05:55:33 am
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/14122022/colorado-river-glen-canyon-dam-drought/
The ‘Power of Aridity’ is Bringing a Colorado River Dam to its Knees
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on December 11, 2022, 12:08:51 pm
A prolonged El-Nino event will be interesting in both hemispheres. Low ice extent in Arctic in cooler la-nina years not a good sign.
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
MONDAY, DECEMBER 5, 2022
Arctic Ocean overheating
Arctic sea ice extent was 10.31 million km² on December 4, 2022. At this time of year, extent was smaller only in two years, i.e. in 2016 and 2020, both strong El Niño years. With the next El Niño, Arctic sea ice extent looks set to reach record lows.
The NOAA image on the right indicates that, while we're still in the depths of a persistent La Niña, the next El Niño looks set to strike soon.
The image below shows high sea surface temperature anomalies near the Bering Strait on December 2, 2022, with a "hot blob" in the North Pacific Ocean where sea surface temperature anomalies are reaching as high as 7°C or 12.6°F from 1981-2011. The Jet Stream is stretched out vertically from pole to pole, enabling hot air to enter the Arctic from the Pacific Ocean and from the Atlantic Ocean.
The image below shows a forecast for December 5, 2022, of 2m temperature anomalies versus 1979-2000, with anomalies over parts of the Arctic Ocean near the top end of the scale.
On December 6, 2022, the Arctic was 6.63°C or 11.93°F warmer compared to 1979-2000, as illustrated by the image below.
The image below shows the daily average Arctic air temperature (2m) from 1979 up to December 6, 2022.
Given that we're still in the depth of a persistent La Niña, these currently very high air temperature anomalies indicate that ocean temperatures are very high and that ocean heat is heating up the air over the Arctic.
Additionally, ocean heat is melting the sea ice from below.
Accordingly, Arctic sea ice has barely increased in thickness over the past 30 days, as illustrated by the navy.mil animation on the right.
This leaves only a very short time for Arctic sea ice to grow back in thickness before the melting season starts again, which means that there will be little or no latent heat buffer to consume heat when the melting season starts.
Furthermore, rising temperatures and changes to the Jet Stream contribute to formation of a freshwater lid at the sea surface at higher latitudes, resulting in further heating up of the Arctic Ocean.
As a result, more heat threatens to penetrate sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean that contain vast amounts of methane in hydrates and free gas, and result in abrupt release of huge amounts of methane, dramatically pushing up temperatures globally.
[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]
The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.
Links
• Vishop sea ice extent
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
• NOAA ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
• nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net
• Climate Reanalyzer
https://climatereanalyzer.org
• Naval Research Laboratory - HYCOM Consortium for Data-Assimilative Ocean Modeling
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html
• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html
• Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/cold-freshwater-lid-on-north-atlantic.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
Post by: John of Wallan on November 12, 2022, 07:49:15 pm
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
There is no Carbon Budget
In the above image, the atmosphere is presented as a "bucket" filling with greenhouse gas pollution from fossil fuel use from 1870 to 2020. The image depicts the idea that there is some carbon budget left, before 1.5°C above pre-industrial will be reached. The Global Carbon Project has just issued an update of what it refers to as the Global Carbon Budget.
[ adapted from Global Carbon Budget 2022 ]
The Global Carbon Project insists that there still is some carbon budget left, even as global fossil fuel C₂O emissions in 2021 were higher than 2020, and are projected to be higher again in 2022 than 2021, as illustrated by the image on the right.
Arctic-news has long said that the suggestion of a carbon budget is part of a narrative that polluters seek to spread, i.e. that there was some budget left to be divided among polluters, as if polluters could safely continue to pollute for years to come before thresholds would be reached that could make life uncomfortable, such as a rise of 1.5°C above pre-industrial.
For starters, an earlier analysis warns that the 1.5°C threshold may have already been crossed long ago. The situation looks set to soon become even more catastrophic. The upcoming El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C over the next few years. Additionally, there will be a growing impact of sunspots, forecast to peak in July 2025.
Arctic-news has long warned about rising temperatures, not only due to high greenhouse gas levels, but also due to a number of events and developments including a rise of up to 1.6°C due to loss of Arctic sea ice and permafrost, and associated changes, a rise of up to 1.9°C due to a decrease in cooling aerosols, and a rise of up to 0.6°C due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires.
More recent posts also warn that the rise could cause the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm CO₂e to be crossed. Accordingly, the total temperature rise could be as high as 18.44°C from pre-industrial by 2026. Keep in mind that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as discussed in an earlier post.
[ image from quotes, text from 2013 post ]
So, there is no carbon budget left. There is just a huge amount of carbon to be removed from the atmosphere and oceans, a "debt" that polluters would rather be forgotten or passed on to future generations.
This "debt" has been growing since well before the industrial revolution started. Long ago, people should have started to reduce emissions and remove greenhouse gases, as well as take further action to improve the situation, and Arctic-news has long said that comprehensive and effective action must be taken without delay.
The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan and at the recent post Transforming Society.
Links
• Global Carbon Project - Global Carbon Budget 2022
https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm
• The upcoming El Nino and further events and developments (2022)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/11/the-upcoming-el-nino-and-further-events-and-developments.html
• Arctic Methane Monster (2013)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/09/arctic-methane-monster.html
• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html
• Methane levels threaten to skyrocket (2014)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2014/09/methane-levels-threaten-to-skyrocket.html
• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html
• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html
• Methane keeps rising (2022)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/methane-keeps-rising.html
• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
• When will we die? (2019)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Transforming Society (2022)
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/transforming-society.html
Post by: RE on November 11, 2022, 02:44:54 am
https://www.newsweek.com/lake-mead-dire-drought-stricken-future-foreshadowed-deadpool-reservoir-1758145
Lake Mead's Dire Drought-Stricken Future Foreshadowed at Deadpool Reservoir
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on November 08, 2022, 08:42:22 pm
Text hard to follow. Site makes a bit more sense with pictures.
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2022
The upcoming El Nino and further events and developments
The above image shows a forecast for August 2023 of the sea surface temperature anomaly in degrees Celsius, from tropicaltidbits.com. The forecast shows temperatures that are higher than average (based on 1984-2009 model climatology) for the tropical Pacific region indicative of an El Niño event.
By contrast, the above forecast for November 2022 shows temperatures in the tropical Pacific region that are much lower than average, indicating that we're still in the depths of a persistent La Niña.
By comparison, the above nullschool.net image shows the sea surface temperature anomaly for August 15, 2022, i.e. less than three months ago, when sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific region were similar to what they are now, while anomalies in the Arctic were much higher than they are now.
Moving from the bottom of the current La Niña to the peak of a strong El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius, as indicated by the image below, adapted from NOAA.
[ from earlier post ]
The NOAA image on the right confirms that we're still in the depths of a persistent La Niña. NOAA predicts a transition out of La Niña. Note that the NOAA forecast only goes up to May/June/July 2023.
Sunspots
The upcoming El Niño looks set to coincide with a peak in sunspots. The peak in sunspots looks set to reach a higher than expected maximum impact around July 2025. An analysis in an earlier post concludes that the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C.
Accordingly, the impact of the upcoming El Niño could make a difference of more than 0.5°C over the next few years. In addition, there will be a growing impact of sunspots, forecast to peak in July 2025.
Methane keeps rising at accelerating pace
Furthermore, there are a number of events and developments that could additionally speed up the temperature rise, including greenhouse gas emissions that keep rising. Methane is particularly important, due to its high potency as a greenhouse gas, and its abundance has also been growing at accelerating pace over the past few years.
The above image, adapted from Copernicus, shows a forecast for November 7, 2022, 03 UTC at 500 hPa, with high levels of methane showing up over the Arctic.
The above image shows a peak methane level of 2687 ppb (parts per billion) recorded by the NOAA-20 satellite at 399.1 mb on November 3, 2022 AM.
The above image shows recent methane daily averages at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, ranging from 1900 ppb to nearly 2000 ppb.
The above image shows recent methane daily averages at Barrow, Alaska, ranging from 2000 ppb to over 2100 ppb.
[ from earlier post ]
Very threatening is a rise in methane that kept following the trend depicted in the above image, created with WMO 2015-2021 global annual surface mean methane abundances, with an added trend that points at a potential mean global abundance of methane of more than 700 ppm (parts per million) CO₂e by the end of 2026. The image warns that, if such a trend kept continuing, the clouds tipping point could be crossed as a result of the forcing of methane alone.
Further events and developments that could speed up the temperature rise
[ see the Extinction page ]
When including further events and developments, the clouds tipping point could be crossed in a matter of years and even with far less methane than the above trend warns about.
As an earlier post mentions, the upcoming temperature rise on land on the Northern Hemisphere could be so high that it will cause much traffic, transport and industrial activity to grind to a halt, resulting in a reduction in aerosols that are currently masking the full wrath of global warming.
The post points at a recent analysis that finds a stronger impact than previously thought for liquid water path adjustment, which supports the 2016 warning that by 2026 there could be a 1.9°C temperature rise due to a decrease in cooling aerosols, while there could be additionally be a 0.6°C temperature rise due to an increase in warming aerosols and gases as a result of more biomass and waste burning and forest fires by 2026.
Furthermore, the 2016 analysis warns about an additional temperature rise of up to 1.6°C due to loss of Arctic sea ice and permafrost, and associated changes.
There could also be additional temperature rises due to increased water vapor, nitrous oxide and further gases.
When including the temperature rise that has already unfolded from pre-industrial and the impact of all such events and developments, the temperature could rise by more than 10°C over the next few years, corresponding with a CO₂e of over 1200 ppm, which implies that the total temperature rise could be as high as 18.44°C by 2026.
Keep in mind that humans are likely to go extinct with a rise of 3°C, as illustrated by the image below, from an analysis discussed in an earlier post.
The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.
Links
• Tropicaltidbits.com
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com
• nullschool.net
https://earth.nullschool.net
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html
• Cataclysmic Alignment
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html
• NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, State of the Climate: Monthly Global Climate Report for September 2022, retrieved October 16, 2022
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202209/supplemental/page-4
• The Importance of Methane in Climate Change
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html
• Copernicus methane at 500 hPa, forecast for November 78, 2022, 03 UTC
https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/methane-forecasts?facets=undefined&time=2022110700,3,2022110703&projection=classical_global&layer_name=composition_ch4_500hpa
• NOAA-20 satellite
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/nucaps/NUCAPS_composite.html
• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv
• Methane Keeps rising
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/10/methane-keeps-rising.html
• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html
• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html
• Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol - by Peter Manhausen et al.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-022-05122-0
• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
• When will we die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
Post by: RE on November 04, 2022, 04:04:25 am
https://boingboing.net/2022/11/03/lake-mead-is-dangerously-close-to-becoming-a-dead-pool.html
Lake Mead is dangerously close to becoming a "dead pool"
RE
Post by: FarmGirl on October 10, 2022, 04:13:47 pm
The Mighty Mississippi not so mighty anymore,
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/07/business/mississippi-river-closures-grounded-barges-drought-climate/index.html
Another supply chain crisis: Barge traffic halted on Mississippi River by lowest water levels in a decade
RE
Seemed like this one could have legs, but not much of a supply chain crisis after all.
Mississippi River reopens to barge traffic after low water closures - U.S. Coast Guard (https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/mississippi-river-reopens-to-barge-traffic-after-low-water-closures-u-s-coast-guard)
Post by: RE on October 09, 2022, 12:47:12 am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/07/business/mississippi-river-closures-grounded-barges-drought-climate/index.html
Another supply chain crisis: Barge traffic halted on Mississippi River by lowest water levels in a decade
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on October 07, 2022, 01:15:48 pm
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
text:
Methane keeps rising
Methane keeps rising. The image below shows methane flask measurements at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, since 2001.
The image below shows methane in situ measurements at Barrow, Alaska.
A recently-published article points out that prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios.
There is the danger that, as methane keeps rising, the clouds tipping point could be crossed. This danger is rarely discussed. How bad could it be?
The MetOp-B satellite recorded a mean methane level of 1981 ppb at 393 mb on October 2, 2022 am, while plenty of methane was present over the Arctic Ocean at the three altitudes, as the compilation image below shows.
This supports the possibility that large amounts of methane are getting released from the Arctic Ocean, with even more to follow.
This 1981 ppb mean methane level translates into 396.2 ppm CO₂e at a 1-year GWP of 200. Destabilization of sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean could cause a large abrupt burst of methane to enter the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean.
A doubling of the mean methane level could push up the mean methane level to twice as much, to 792.4 ppm CO₂e, which is only 407.6 ppm CO₂ away from the 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point that on its own could push up the temperature by some 8°C globally.
This gap of 407.6 ppm CO₂ could be more than covered by the current carbon dioxide level. The September 2022 carbon dioxide level at Mauna Loa was higher than that, at 415.96 ppm. Since the carbon dioxide level at Mauna Loa in September typically is at its lowest point for the year, this implies that a large abrupt burst of methane could cause the the clouds tipping point to be instantly crossed due to methane and carbon dioxide alone.
Since there are further forcers, such as nitrous oxide and CFCs, while further events and developments could additionally speed up the temperature rise, this means that the clouds tipping point could be instantly crossed with a burst of methane that is far smaller in size than the methane already in the atmosphere.
[ from earlier post ]
That's not even the worst-case scenario. In the above calculation, global mean methane levels are used. However, there is a possibility that low-lying clouds could at first break up and vanish abruptly at one specific point, due to a high methane peak, and that this could lead to break-up of neighboring clouds, propagating break-up across the globe and thus pushing up the temperature rise virtually instantly by some 8°C globally.
The MetOp satellite recorded a peak methane level of 3644 ppb and a mean level of 1944 ppb at 367 mb on November 21, 2021, pm, as discussed in an earlier post. This 3644 ppb translates into 728.8 ppm CO₂e, again at a 1-year GWP of 200. This is 471.2 ppm CO₂e away from the clouds tipping point and that 471.2 ppm CO₂e could be covered by the carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and CFCs currently in the atmosphere.
There are further scenarios that could cause the clouds tipping point to be crossed soon, e.g. if the rise in methane kept following a trend such as depicted in the image below.
[ from an earlier post ]
The situation is dire and the right thing to do now is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through action as described in the Climate Plan.
Links
• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv
• Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios - by Luke Kemp et al.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
Also discussed at:
https://www.facebook.com/groups/arcticnews/posts/10160138721434679
• The Clouds Feedback and the Clouds Tipping Point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html
• NOAA - MetOp satellite
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi
• The Importance of Methane in Climate Change
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html
• Overshoot or Omnicide?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/overshoot-or-omnicide.html
• Human Extinction by 2022?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/11/human-extinction-by-2022.html
• Cataclysmic Alignment
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
Post by: FarmGirl on October 04, 2022, 04:29:16 pm
The GREAT Climate Migration begins.
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article266727976.html
‘We are tired, dirty and hungry’: Hurricane Ian survivors leave Fort Myers Beach on foot
RE
Over the course of the next year, the migration will go into reverse, as they go back. Folks aren't going to give up on Sanibel and surrounding communities until the government makes it a national park, or the rich run out of money to buy out the poor folks who once lived there...soon to be replaced by richer folks building sturdier structures.
Post by: RE on October 04, 2022, 07:12:58 am
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article266727976.html
‘We are tired, dirty and hungry’: Hurricane Ian survivors leave Fort Myers Beach on foot
RE
Post by: RE on October 02, 2022, 01:20:25 am
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/oct/01/hurricane-ian-inequality-recovery-damage-florida
‘Our community is wiped out’: low-income Americans likely to be hit hardest by Hurricane Ian
RE
Post by: RE on September 30, 2022, 01:22:36 am
https://abc7.com/hurricane-ian-florida-tracker-warning-orlando-weather/12278131/
Hurricane Ian heads to South Carolina as floods trap many in Florida; death toll rises
RE
Post by: RE on September 29, 2022, 02:35:52 am
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/hurricane-ian-live-coverage-projected-path-florida-cuba-b2177683.html
Orlando theme parks remain shuttered as millions without power and cities flooded
RE
Post by: RE on September 28, 2022, 07:02:49 am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/28/weather/hurricane-ian-florida-path-wednesday/index.html
Deadly Hurricane Ian, nearing Category 5 strength, threatens ‘catastrophic’ storm surge as it nears Florida. It’s too late to leave for many, governor says
RE
Post by: RE on September 27, 2022, 03:42:47 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nv_SePgBn14
RE
Post by: RE on September 26, 2022, 12:12:58 am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/25/weather/fiona-canada-sunday/index.html
Power outages across Nova Scotia
RE
Post by: K-Dog on September 24, 2022, 10:20:33 am
Quote
In spring 1316, it continued to rain on a European population deprived of energy and reserves to sustain itself. All segments of society from nobles to peasants were affected but especially the peasants, who represented 95% of the population and who had no reserve food supplies. To provide some measure of relief, the future was mortgaged by slaughtering the draft animals, eating the seed grain, abandoning children to fend for themselves (see "Hansel and Gretel") and, among old people, voluntarily refusing food for the younger generation to survive. The chroniclers of the time noted many incidents of cannibalism, although "one can never tell if such talk was not simply a matter of rumor-mongering".
http://www.vlib.us/medieval/lectures/black_death.html
Post by: RE on September 24, 2022, 04:52:22 am
https://www.wesh.com/article/tropical-storm-ian-track-florida/41352046
NHC forecasts Tropical Storm Ian will hit Florida as Category 3 hurricane
RE
Post by: K-Dog on September 23, 2022, 02:48:43 pm
Quote
THE FATE OF EMPIRES
and
SEARCH FOR SURVIVAL
I responded to this essay on my website. Here it is without the music link on my page.
New Arrangements
I wish I could buy the world a coke and teach it harmony.
Grow apple trees and honey bees And snow white turtle doves....
Oooohhhhh that would be nice, but last week I realized there is a big problem. Harmony is not appreciated. The zeitgeist we have wants chaos. America at this time of the historical curve worships chaos. There are individuals who are trying to make the world a better place, people who want to make the world fly right. Social forces bury them.
A naive soul hearing of climate change and resource depletion is usually successful in finding a path to denial. I am not so lucky. I am a science nerd. We get bad dreams.
I was tested in the 6th grade. At the time, my language arts were not so good. Reading and writing was at a third grade level. This website shows the situation was temporary.
By the eighth grade, I was reading and writing better than an average high school graduate. I was doing the book a day thing. Books like the 'Grapes Of Wrath'. The sixth grade test showed something else. My scientific reasoning and knowledge was already past that of a college sophomore.
But all my parents cared about was my reading and writing ability. That I was gifted in other areas meant nothing to them. A typical reaction of middle class parents of the time.
Later, I read Scientific American like a pervert with ****. I read the Encyclopedia Britannica at random. My father had a copy. I would read it for hours.
Math did not come easy until I started liking it. I was in my late teens when that happened.
There are a lot of excitable personalities on the internet preaching doom and gloom. Most of it is emotion with a dash of reasonable reality. Enough to make the excitable seem credible in an I say tomato you say te-mott-owe sort of way.
Then there is the truth. A truth that math exposes.
How much oil is in the ground. How fast do we use it. How long will it last. What will we use when it is gone. What do we use it for. Can we live without it?
The truth is out there. (https://chasingthesquirrel.com/public/pics/scully.png) Sadly it seems, nobody cares.
Empires last about 250 years. At the end of 250 years, empires pass through ten generations. With founding fathers long gone empires assume a new character.
Ideas of duty and sacrifice to goals bigger than oneself die. Money and the pursuit of it become more important than holding onto a pioneering spirit and values that build. Pioneering values that built empire.
Born in safety, individuals in late stage empires feel entitled. They chase individual goals and private pleasures. Thoughts of community die. The comfort empire provides is taken for granted. Little though is given to how the world actually works. Social rot festers. Obligations to serve become foolish ideas.
Winds of chaos always blow. Change comes to empire. Rot from within opens cities up for destruction from outside. Destruction from within and destruction from without become forces that are not opposed.
The 250 year cycle of empire has repeated for about 4000 years all over the world. Empires atrophy and can't respond to change. Like a person without an immune system, any disease becomes a killer. It is only a matter of time.
Like others into collapse, I have tried to understand human nature to find the secret sauce of salvation. A killer explanation to wake people up to wanting to stay alive. I don't want America to be humanities last bus stop.
As time went by I learned the world was not ready to hear the truth. Average thinking is binary and frustrating, unable to understand the subtleties of thermodynamics which shape our world. Science is suppressed, and scoffed at. Magical thinking is America's norm.
It is this way, that way, or the hi-way for most people. Does this sound elitist? I don't give a ****. I live in a nation that worships billionaires, money, and ignorance. I don't have to like it.
To be fair, I know I have enough math to see things without clean crisp binary absolutes. Education gave that ability to me. I was not born with it. I am lucky.
Todays' rant is short. I write to keep my personal commitment to an essay a week. The consistency is to build an audience, which may or may not happen. I have some things to say.
Regardless, doing all this is good for me. Some people keep the brain sharp doing puzzles. This is what I do. Writing the software has me sucked in, so the literature side suffers right now. Limited time.
When I complete the software which runs this place, what I write can be more refined. Rolling your own website with an ability for people to leave comments on it is not easy. The push now is to refine my editor, so people can leave pictures and perhaps video in comments. A phone friendly page would be nice. I also work.
Finding out that the process of enlightening the masses is hampered by a generational 10th generation immaturities adds new difficulties.
I may find the secret sauce of truth. But if nobody likes the taste because they have a tenth generation spirit, what is the point?
Post by: K-Dog on September 21, 2022, 01:15:02 am
It is of interest to note that decadence is
the disintegration of a system, not of its
individual members. The habits of the
members of the community have been
corrupted by the enjoyment of too much
money and too much power for too long a
period. The result has been, in the
framework of their national life, to make
them selfish and idle. A community of selfish
and idle people declines, internal quarrels
develop in the division of its dwindling
wealth, and pessimism follows, which some
of them endeavour to drown in sensuality or
frivolity. In their own surroundings, they are
unable to redirect their thoughts and their
energies into new channels.
But when individual members of such a
society emigrate into entirely new surroun-
dings, they do not remain conspicuously
decadent, pessimistic or immoral among the
inhabitants of their new homeland. Once
enabled to break away from their old
channels of thought, and after a short period
of readjustment, they become normal
citizens of their adopted countries. Some of
them, in the second and third generations,
may attain pre-eminence and leadership in
their new communities.
This seems to prove that the decline of any
nation does not undermine the energies or
the basic character of its members. Nor does
the decadence of a number of such nations
permanently impoverish the human race.
Decadence is both mental and moral
deterioration, produced by the slow decline
of the community from which its members
cannot escape, as long as they remain in
their old surroundings. But, transported
elsewhere, they soon discard their decadent
ways of thought, and prove themselves equal
to the other citizens of their adopted country.
XXXII Decadence is not physical
Neither is decadence physical. The citizens
of nations in decline are sometimes
described as too physically emasculated to be
able to bear hardship or make great efforts.
This does not seem to be a true picture.
Citizens of great nations in decadence are
normally physically larger and stronger than
those of their barbarian invaders.
Moreover, as was proved in Britain in the
first World War, young men brought up in
luxury and wealth found little difficulty in
accustoming themselves to life in the front-
line trenches. The history of exploration
proves the same point. Men accustomed to
comfortable living in homes in Europe or
America were able to show as much
endurance as the natives in riding camels
across the desert or in hacking their way
through tropical forests.
Decadence is a moral and spiritual disease,
resulting from too long a period of wealth
and power, producing cynicism, decline of
religion, pessimism and frivolity. The
citizens of such a nation will no longer make
an effort to save themselves, because they
are not convinced that anything in life is
worth saving.
XXXII Human diversity
Generalisations are always dangerous.
Human beings are all different. The variety
in human life is endless. If this be the case
with individuals, it is much more so with
nations and cultures. No two societies, no
two peoples, no two cultures are exactly the
same. In these circumstances, it will be easy
The Fate of Empires 21
for critics to find many objections to what
has been said, and to point out exceptions to
the generalisations.
There is some value in comparing the lives
of nations to those of individuals. No two
persons in the world are identical. Moreover
their lives are often affected by accidents or
by illness, making the divergences even more
obvious. Yet, in fact, we can generalise about
human life from many different aspects. The
characteristics of childhood, adolescence,
youth, middle and old age are well known.
Some adolescents, it is true, are prematurely
wise and serious. Some persons in middle
age still seem to he young. But such
exceptions do not invalidate the general
character of human life from the cradle to
the grave.
I venture to submit that the lives of nations
follow a similar pattern. Superficially, all
seem to be completely different. Some years
ago, a suggestion was submitted to a certain
television corporation that a series of talks
on Arab history would form an interesting
sequence. The proposal was immediately
vetoed by the director of programmes with
the remark, “What earthly interest could the
history of medieval Arabs have for the
general public today?”
Yet, in fact, the history of the Arab imperial
age—from conquest through commercialism,
to affluence, intellectualism, science and
decadence—is an exact precursor of British
imperial history and lasted almost exactly
the same time.
If British historians, a century ago, had
devoted serious study to the Arab Empire,
they could have foreseen almost everything
that has happened in Britain down to 1976.
XXXIV A variety of falls
It has been shown that, normally, the rise
and fall of great nations are due to internal
reasons alone. Ten generations of human
beings suffice to transform the hardy and
enterprising pioneer into the captious citizen
of the welfare state. But whereas the life
histories of great nations show an unex-
pected uniformity, the nature of their falls
depends largely on outside circumstances
and thus shows a high degree of diversity.
The Roman Republic, as we have seen, was
followed by the empire, which became a
super-state, in which all the natives of the
Mediterranean basin, regardless of race,
possessed equal rights. The name of Rome,
originally a city-state, passed from it to an
equalitarian international empire.
This empire broke in half, the western half
being overrun by northern barbarians, the
eastern half forming the East Roman or
Byzantine Empire.
The vast Arab Empire broke up in the
ninth century into many fragments, of which
one former colony, Moslem Spain, ran its
own 250-year course as an independent
empire. The homelands of Syria and Iraq,
however, were conquered by successive
waves of Turks to whom they remained
subject for 1,000 years.
The Mameluke Empire of Egypt and Syria,
on the other hand, was conquered in one
campaign by the Ottomans, the native
population merely suffering a change of
masters.
The Spanish Empire (1500-1750) endured
for the conventional 250 years, terminated
only by the loss of its colonies. The homeland
of Spain fell, indeed, from its high estate of a
The Fate of Empires22
super-power, but remained as an indepen-
dent nation until today.
Romanov Russia (1682-1916) ran the
normal course, but was succeeded by the
Soviet Union.
It is unnecessary to labour the point, which
we may attempt to summarise briefly. Any
regime which attains great wealth and power
seems with remarkable regularity to decay
and fall apart in some ten generations. The
ultimate fate of its component parts,
however, does not depend on its internal
nature, but on the other organisations which
appear at the time of its collapse and succeed
in devouring its heritage. Thus the lives of
great powers are surprisingly uniform, but
the results of their falls are completely
diverse.
XXXV Inadequacy of our historical
studies
In fact, the modern nations of the West
have derived only limited value from their
historical studies, because they have never
made them big enough. For history to have
meaning, as we have already stated, it must
be the history of the human race.
Far from achieving such an ideal, our
historical studies are largely limited to the
history of our own country during the
lifetime of the present nation. Thus the time-
factor is too short to allow the longer
rhythms of the rise and fall of nations even to
be noticed. As the television director
indicated, it never even crosses our minds
that longer periods could be of any interest.
When we read the history of our own
nation, we find the actions of our ancestors
described as glorious, while those of other
peoples are depicted as mean, tyrannical or
cowardly. Thus our history is (intentionally)
not based on facts. We are emotionally
unwilling to accept that our forbears might
have been mean or cowardly.
Alternatively, there are ‘political’ schools of
history, slanted to discredit the actions of
our past leaders, in order to support modern
political movements. In all these cases,
history is not an attempt to ascertain the
truth, but a system of propaganda, devoted
to the furtherance of modern projects, or the
gratification of national vanity.
Men can scarcely be blamed for not
learning from the history they are taught.
There is nothing to learn from it, because it
is not true.
XXXVI Small nations
The word ‘empires’ has been used in this
essay to signify nations which achieve the
status of great powers, or super-powers, in
the jargon of today—nations which have
dominated the international scene for two or
three centuries. At any given time, however,
there are also smaller states which are more
or less self-contained. Do these live the same
‘lives’ as the great nations, and pass through
the same phases?
It seems impossible to generalise on this
issue. In general, decadence is the outcome
of too long a period of wealth and power. If
the small country has not shared in the
wealth and power, it will not share in the
decadence.
XXXVII The emerging pattern
In spite of the endless variety and the
infinite complications of human life, a
general pattern does seem to emerge from
these considerations. It reveals many
successive empires covering some 3,000
years, as having followed similar stages of
The Fate of Empires 23
development and decline, and as having, to a
surprising degree, ‘lived’ lives of very similar
length.
The life-expectation of a great nation, it
appears, commences with a violent, and
usually unforeseen, outburst of energy, and
ends in a lowering of moral standards,
cynicism, pessimism and frivolity.
If the present writer were a millionaire, he
would try to establish in some university or
other a department dedicated solely to the
study of the rhythm of the rise and fall of
powerful nations throughout the world.
History goes back only some 3,000 years,
because before that period writing was not
sufficiently widespread to allow of the
survival of detailed records. But within that
period, the number of empires available for
study is very great.
At the commencement of this essay, the
names of eleven such empires were listed,
but these included only the Middle East and
the modern nations of the West. India, China
and Southern America were not included,
because the writer knows nothing about
them. A school founded to study the rise and
fall of empires would probably find at least
twenty-four great powers available for
dissection and analysis.
The task would not be an easy one, if
indeed the net were cast so wide as to cover
virtually all the world’s great nations in 3,000
years. The knowledge of language alone, to
enable detailed investigations to be pursued,
would present a formidable obstacle.
XXXVIII Would it help?
It is pleasing to imagine that, from such
studies, a regular life-pattern of nations
would emerge, including an analysis of the
various changes which ultimately lead to
decline, decadence and collapse. It is
tempting to assume that measures could be
adopted to forestall the disastrous effects of
excessive wealth and power, and thence of
subsequent decadence. Perhaps some means
could be devised to prevent the activist Age
of Conquests and Commerce deteriorating
into the Age of Intellect, producing endless
talking but no action.
It is tempting to think so. Perhaps if the
pattern of the rise and fall of nations were
regularly taught in schools, the general
public would come to realise the truth, and
would support policies to maintain the spirit
of duty and self-sacrifice, and to forestall the
accumulation of excessive wealth by one
nation, leading to the demoralisation of that
nation.
Could not the sense of duty and the
initiative needed to give rise to action be
retained parallel with intellectual develop-
ment and the discoveries of natural science?
The answer is doubtful, though we could
but try. The weaknesses of human nature,
however, are so obvious, that we cannot be
too confident of success. Men bursting with
courage, energy and self-confidence cannot
easily be restrained from subduing their
neighbours, and men who see the prospect of
wealth open to them will not readily be
prevented from pursuing it.
Perhaps it is not in the real interest of
humanity that they should be so prevented,
for it is in periods of wealth that art,
architecture, music, science and literature
make the greatest progress.
Moreover, as we have seen where great
empires are concerned, their establishment
may give rise to wars and tragedies, but their
periods of power often bring peace, security
and prosperity to vast areas of territory. Our
The Fate of Empires24
knowledge and our experience (perhaps our
basic human intellects) are inadequate to
pronounce whether or not the rise and fall of
great nations is the best system for the best
of all possible worlds.
These doubts, however, need not prevent
us from attempting to acquire more
knowledge on the rise and fall of great
powers, or from endeavouring, in the light of
such knowledge, to improve the moral
quality of human life.
Perhaps, in fact, we may reach the
conclusion that the successive rise and fall of
great nations is inevitable and, indeed, a
system divinely ordained. But even this
would be an immense gain. For we should
know where we stand in relation to our
human brothers and sisters. In our present
state of mental chaos on the subject, we
divide ourselves into nations, parties or
communities and fight, hate and vilify one
another over developments which may
perhaps be divinely ordained and which
seem to us, if we take a broader view,
completely uncontrollable and inevitable. If
we could accept these great movements as
beyond our control, there would be no
excuse for our hating one another because of
them.
However varied, confusing and contra-
dictory the religious history of the world may
appear, the noblest and most spiritual of the
devotees of all religions seem to reach the
conclusion that love is the key to human life.
Any expansion of our knowledge which may
lead to a reduction in our unjustified hates is
therefore surely well worth while.
XXXIX Summary
As numerous points of interest have arisen
in the course of this essay, I close with a brief
summary, to refresh the reader’s mind.
(a) We do not learn from history because
our studies are brief and prejudiced.
(b) In a surprising manner, 250 years
emerges as the average length of national
greatness.
(c) This average has not varied for 3,000
years. Does it represent ten generations?
(d) The stages of the rise and fall of great
nations seem to be:
The Age of Pioneers (outburst)
The Age of Conquests
The Age of Commerce
The Age of Affluence
The Age of Intellect
The Age of Decadence.
(e) Decadence is marked by:
Defensiveness
Pessimism
Materialism
Frivolity
An influx of foreigners
The Welfare State
A weakening of religion.
(f) Decadence is due to:
Too long a period of wealth and power
Selfishness
Love of money
The loss of a sense of duty.
(g) The life histories of great states are
amazingly similar, and are due to internal
factors.
(h) Their falls are diverse, because they are
largely the result of external causes.
(i) History should be taught as the history
of the human race, though of course with
emphasis on the history of the student’s own
country.
Post by: K-Dog on September 21, 2022, 01:13:54 am
In the first half of the ninth century,
Baghdad enjoyed its High Noon as the
greatest and the richest city in the world. In
861, however, the reigning Khalif (caliph),
Mutawakkil, was murdered by his Turkish
mercenaries, who set up a military dictator-
ship, which lasted for some thirty years.
During this period the empire fell apart, the
various dominions and provinces each
assuming virtual independence and seeking
its own interests. Baghdad, lately the capital
of a vast empire, found its authority limited
to Iraq alone.
The works of the contemporary historians
of Baghdad in the early tenth century are still
available. They deeply deplored the
degeneracy of the times in which they lived,
emphasising particularly the indifference to
religion, the increasing materialism and the
laxity of sexual morals. They lamented also
the corruption of the officials of the
government and the fact that politicians
always seemed to amass large fortunes while
they were in office.
The historians commented bitterly on the
extraordinary influence acquired by popular
singers over young people, resulting in a
decline in sexual morality. The ‘pop’ singers
of Baghdad accompanied their erotic songs
on the lute, an instrument resembling the
modern guitar. In the second half of the
tenth century, as a result, much obscene
sexual language came increasingly into use,
such as would not have been tolerated in an
earlier age. Several khalifs issued orders
banning ‘pop’ singers from the capital, but
within a few years they always returned.
An increase in the influence of women in
public life has often been associated with na-
tional decline. The later Romans complained
that, although Rome ruled the world, women
ruled Rome. In the tenth century, a similar
tendency was observable in the Arab Empire,
the women demanding admission to the
professions hitherto monopolised by men.
‘What,’ wrote the contemporary historian,
Ibn Bessam, ‘have the professions of clerk,
tax-collector or preacher to do with women?
These occupations have always been limited
to men alone.’ Many women practised law,
while others obtained posts as university
professors. There was an agitation for the
appointment of female judges, which,
however, does not appear to have succeeded.
Soon after this period, government and
public order collapsed, and foreign invaders
overran the country. The resulting increase
in confusion and violence made it unsafe for
women to move unescorted in the streets,
with the result that this feminist movement
collapsed.
The disorders following the military take-
over in 861, and the loss of the empire, had
played havoc with the economy. At such a
moment, it might have been expected that
everyone would redouble their efforts to save
the country from bankruptcy, but nothing of
the kind occurred. Instead, at this moment of
declining trade and financial stringency, the
people of Baghdad introduced a five-day
week.
When I first read these contemporary
descriptions of tenth-century Baghdad, I
could scarcely believe my eyes. I told myself
that this must be a joke! The descriptions
might have been taken out of The Times
today. The resemblance of all the details was
especially breathtaking—the break-up of the
empire, the abandonment of sexual morality,
the ‘pop’ singers with their guitars, the entry
of women into the professions, the five-day
The Fate of Empires16
week. I would not venture to attempt an
explanation! There are so many mysteries
about human life which are far beyond our
comprehension.
XXV Political ideology
Today we attach immense importance to
the ideology of our internal politics. The
Press and public media in the U.S.A. and
Britain pour incessant scorn on any country
the political institutions of which differ in
any manner from our own idea of
democracy. It is, therefore, interesting to
note that the life-expectation of a great
nation does not appear to be in any way
affected by the nature of its institutions.
Past empires show almost every possible
variation of political system, but all go
through the same procedure from the Age of
Pioneers through Conquest, Commerce,
Affluence to decline and collapse.
XXVI The Mameluke Empire
The empire of the Mamelukes of Egypt
provides a case in point, for it was one of the
most exotic ever to be recorded in history. It
is also exceptional in that it began on one
fixed day and ended on another, leaving no
doubt of its precise duration, which was 267
years.
In the first part of the thirteenth century,
Egypt and Syria were ruled by the Ayoubid
sultans, the descendants of the family of
Saladin. Their army consisted of Mamelukes,
slaves imported as boys from the Steppes
and trained as professional soldiers. On 1st
May 1250, the Mamelukes mutinied,
murdered Turan Shah, the Ayoubid sultan,
and became the rulers of his empire.
The first fifty years of the Mameluke
Empire were marked by desperate fighting
with the hitherto invincible Mongols, the
descendants of Genghis Khan, who invaded
Syria. By defeating the Mongols and driving
them out of Syria, the Mamelukes saved the
Mediterranean from the terrible fate which
had overtaken Persia. In 1291, the Mame-
lukes captured Acre, and put an end to the
Crusades.
From 1309 to 1341, the Mameluke Empire
was everywhere victorious and possessed the
finest army in the world. For the ensuing
hundred years the wealth of the Mameluke
Empire was fabulous, slowly leading to
luxury, the relaxation of discipline and to
decline, with ever more bitter internal
political rivalries. Finally the empire collap-
sed in 1517, as the result of military defeat
by the Ottomans.
The Mameluke government appears to us
utterly illogical and fantastic. The ruling
class was entirely recruited from young boys,
born in what is now Southern Russia. Every
one of them was enlisted as a private soldier.
Even the sultans had begun life as private
soldiers and had risen from the ranks. Yet
this extraordinary political system resulted
in an empire which passed through all the
normal stages of conquest, commercialism,
affluence and decline and which lasted
approximately the usual period of time.
XXVII The master race
The people of the great nations of the past
seem normally to have imagined that their
pre-eminence would last for ever. Rome
appeared to its citizens to be destined to be
for all time the mistress of the world. The
Abbasid Khalifs of Baghdad declared that
God had appointed them to rule mankind
until the day of judgement. Seventy years
ago, many people in Britain believed that the
The Fate of Empires 17
empire would endure for ever. Although
Hitler failed to achieve his objective, he
declared that Germany would rule the world
for a thousand years. That sentiments like
these could be publicly expressed without
evoking derision shows that, in all ages, the
regular rise and fall of great nations has
passed unperceived. The simplest statistics
prove the steady rotation of one nation after
another at regular intervals.
The belief that their nation would rule the
world forever, naturally encouraged the
citizens of the leading nation of any period to
attribute their pre-eminence to hereditary
virtues. They carried in their blood, they
believed, qualities which constituted them a
race of supermen, an illusion which inclined
them to the employment of cheap foreign
labour (or slaves) to perform menial tasks
and to engage foreign mercenaries to fight
their battles or to sail their ships.
These poorer peoples were only too happy
to migrate to the wealthy cities of the empire,
and thereby, as we have seen, to adulterate
the close-knit, homogeneous character of the
conquering race. The latter unconsciously
assumed that they would always be the
leaders of mankind, relaxed their energies,
and spent an increasing part of their time in
leisure, amusement or sport.
In recent years, the idea has spread widely
in the West that ‘progress’ will be automatic
without effort, that everyone will continue to
grow richer and richer and that every year
will show a ‘rise in the standard of living’. We
have not drawn from history the obvious
conclusion that material success is the result
of courage, endurance and hard work—a
conclusion nevertheless obvious from the
history of the meteoric rise of our own
ancestors. This self-assurance of its own
superiority seems to go hand-in-hand with
the luxury resulting from wealth, in
undermining the character of the dominant
race.
XXVIII The welfare state
When the welfare state was first introduced
in Britain, it was hailed as a new high-water
mark in the history of human development.
History, however, seems to suggest that the
age of decline of a great nation is often a
period which shows a tendency to
philanthropy and to sympathy for other
races. This phase may not be contradictory
to the feeling described in the previous
paragraph, that the dominant race has the
right to rule the world. For the citizens of the
great nation enjoy the role of Lady Bountiful.
As long as it retains its status of leadership,
the imperial people are glad to be generous,
even if slightly condescending. The rights of
citizenship are generously bestowed on every
race, even those formerly subject, and the
equality of mankind is proclaimed. The
Roman Empire passed through this phase,
when equal citizenship was thrown open to
all peoples, such provincials even becoming
senators and emperors.
The Arab Empire of Baghdad was equally,
perhaps even more, generous. During the
Age of Conquests, pure-bred Arabs had
constituted a ruling class, but in the ninth
century the empire was completely
cosmopolitan.
State assistance to the young and the poor
was equally generous. University students
received government grants to cover their
expenses while they were receiving higher
education. The State likewise offered free
medical treatment to the poor. The first free
public hospital was opened in Baghdad in
The Fate of Empires18
the reign of Harun al-Rashid (786-809), and
under his son, Mamun, free public hospitals
sprang up all over the Arab world from Spain
to what is now Pakistan.
The impression that it will always be
automatically rich causes the declining
empire to spend lavishly on its own
benevolence, until such time as the economy
collapses, the universities are closed and the
hospitals fall into ruin.
It may perhaps be incorrect to picture the
welfare state as the high-water mark of
human attainment. It may merely prove to
be one more regular milestone in the life-
story of an ageing and decrepit empire.
XXIX Religion
Historians of periods of decadence often
refer to a decline in religion, but, if we
extend our investigation over a period
covering the Assyrians (859-612 B.C.) to our
own times, we have to interpret religion in a
very broad sense. Some such definition as
‘the human feeling that there is something,
some invisible Power, apart from material
objects, which controls human life and the
natural world’.
We are probably too narrow and
contemptuous in our interpretation of idol
worship. The people of ancient civilisations
were as sensible as we are, and would
scarcely have been so foolish as to worship
sticks and stones fashioned by their own
hands. The idol was for them merely a
symbol, and represented an unknown,
spiritual reality, which controlled the lives of
men and demanded human obedience to its
moral precepts.
We all know only too well that minor
differences in the human visualisation of this
Spirit frequently became the ostensible
reason for human wars, in which both sides
claimed to be fighting for the true God, but
the absurd narrowness of human
conceptions should not blind us to the fact
that, very often, both sides believed their
campaigns to have a moral background.
Genghis Khan, one of the most brutal of all
conquerors, claimed that God had delegated
him the duty to exterminate the decadent
races of the civilised world. Thus the Age of
Conquests often had some kind of religious
atmosphere, which implied heroic self-
sacrifice for the cause.
But this spirit of dedication was slowly
eroded in the Age of Commerce by the action
of money. People make money for
themselves, not for their country. Thus
periods of affluence gradually dissolved the
spirit of service, which had caused the rise of
the imperial races.
In due course, selfishness permeated the
community, the coherence of which was
weakened until disintegration was
threatened. Then, as we have seen, came the
period of pessimism with the accompanying
spirit of frivolity and sensual indulgence, by-
products of despair. It was inevitable at such
times that men should look back yearningly
to the days of ‘religion’, when the spirit of
self-sacrifice was still strong enough to make
men ready to give and to serve, rather than
to snatch.
But while despair might permeate the
greater part of the nation, others achieved a
new realisation of the fact that only readi-
ness for self-sacrifice could enable a commu-
nity to survive. Some of the greatest saints in
history lived in times of national decadence,
raising the banner of duty and service
against the flood of depravity and despair.
The Fate of Empires 19
In this manner, at the height of vice and
frivolity the seeds of religious revival are
quietly sown. After, perhaps, several
generations (or even centuries) of suffering,
the impoverished nation has been purged of
its selfishness and its love of money, religion
regains its sway and a new era sets in. ‘It is
good for me that I have been afflicted,’ said
the psalmist, ‘that I might learn Thy
Statutes.’
XXX New combinations
We have traced the rise of an obscure race
to fame, through the stages of conquest,
commercialism, affluence, and intellectu-
alism, to disintegration, decadence and
despair. We suggested that the dominant
race at any given time imparts its leading
characteristics to the world around, being in
due course succeeded by another empire. By
this means, we speculated, many successive
races succeeded one another as super-
powers, and in turn bequeathed their
peculiar qualities to mankind at large.
But the objection may here be raised that
some day the time will come when all the
races of the world will in turn have enjoyed
their period of domination and have
collapsed again in decadence. When the
whole human race has reached the stage of
decadence, where will new energetic con-
quering races be found?
The answer is at first partially obscured by
our modern habit of dividing the human race
into nations, which we seem to regard as
water-tight compartments, an error respon-
sible for innumerable misunderstandings.
In earlier times, warlike nomadic nations
invaded the territories of decadent peoples
and settled there. In due course, they
intermarried with the local population and a
new race resulted, though it sometimes
retained an old name. The barbarian
invasions of the Roman Empire probably
provide the example best known today in the
West. Others were the Arab conquests of
Spain, North Africa and Persia, the Turkish
conquests of the Ottoman Empire, or even
the Norman Conquest of England.
In all such cases, the conquered countries
were originally fully inhabited and the inva-
ders were armies, which ultimately settled
down and married, and produced new races.
In our times, there are few nomadic
conquerors left in the world, who could
invade more settled countries bringing their
tents and flocks with them. But ease of travel
has resulted in an equal, or probably an even
greater, intermixture of populations. The
extreme bitterness of modern internal poli-
tical struggles produces a constant flow of
migrants from their native countries to
others, where the social institutions suit
them better.
The vicissitudes of trade and business
similarly result in many persons moving to
other countries, at first intending to return,
but ultimately settling down in their new
countries.
The population of Britain has been
constantly changing, particularly in the last
sixty years, owing to the influx of immigrants
from Europe, Asia and Africa, and the exit of
British citizens to the Dominions and the
United States. The latter is, of course, the
most obvious example of the constant rise of
new nations, and of the transformation of
the ethnic content of old nations through this
modern nomadism.
Post by: K-Dog on September 21, 2022, 01:06:58 am
That which we may call the High Noon of
the nation covers the period of transition
from the Age of Conquests to the Age of
Affluence: the age of Augustus in Rome, that
of Harun al-Rashid in Baghdad, of Sulaiman
the Magnificent in the Ottoman Empire, or
of Queen Victoria in Britain. Perhaps we
might add the age of Woodrow Wilson in the
United States.
All these periods reveal the same
characteristics. The immense wealth accu-
mulated in the nation dazzles the onlookers.
Enough of the ancient virtues of courage,
energy and patriotism survive to enable the
state successfully to defend its frontiers. But,
beneath the surface, greed for money is
gradually replacing duty and public service.
Indeed the change might be summarised as
being from service to selfishness.
The Fate of Empires10
XVII Defensiveness
Another outward change which invariably
marks the transition from the Age of
Conquests to the Age of Affluence is the
spread of defensiveness. The nation, immen-
sely rich, is no longer interested in glory or
duty, but is only anxious to retain its wealth
and its luxury. It is a period of defensiveness,
from the Great Wall of China, to Hadrian’s
Wall on the Scottish Border, to the Maginot
Line in France in 1939.
Money being in better supply than courage,
subsidies instead of weapons are employed
to buy off enemies. To justify this departure
from ancient tradition, the human mind
easily devises its own justification. Military
readiness, or aggressiveness, is denounced as
primitive and immoral. Civilised peoples are
too proud to fight. The conquest of one
nation by another is declared to be immoral.
Empires are wicked. This intellectual device
enables us to suppress our feeling of
inferiority, when we read of the heroism of
our ancestors, and then ruefully contemplate
our position today. ‘It is not that we are
afraid to fight,’ we say, ‘but we should
consider it immoral.’ This even enables us to
assume an attitude of moral superiority.
The weakness of pacifism is that there are
still many peoples in the world who are
aggressive. Nations who proclaim themselves
unwilling to fight are liable to be conquered
by peoples in the stage of militarism—
perhaps even to see themselves incorporated
into some new empire, with the status of
mere provinces or colonies.
When to be prepared to use force and when
to give way is a perpetual human problem,
which can only be solved, as best we can, in
each successive situation as it arises. In fact,
however, history seems to indicate that great
nations do not normally disarm from
motives of conscience, but owing to the
weakening of a sense of duty in the citizens,
and the increase in selfishness and the desire
for wealth and ease.
XVIII The Age of Intellect
We have now, perhaps arbitrarily, divided
the life-story of our great nation into four
ages. The Age of the Pioneers (or the
Outburst), the Age of Conquests, the Age of
Commerce, and the Age of Affluence. The
great wealth of the nation is no longer
needed to supply the mere necessities, or
even the luxuries of life. Ample funds are
available also for the pursuit of knowledge.
The merchant princes of the Age of
Commerce seek fame and praise, not only by
endowing works of art or patronising music
and literature. They also found and endow
colleges and universities. It is remarkable
with what regularity this phase follows on
that of wealth, in empire after empire,
divided by many centuries.
In the eleventh century, the former Arab
Empire, then in complete political decline,
was ruled by the Seljuk sultan, Malik Shah.
The Arabs, no longer soldiers, were still the
intellectual leaders of the world. During the
reign of Malik Shah, the building of
universities and colleges became a passion.
Whereas a small number of universities in
the great cities had sufficed the years of Arab
glory, now a university sprang up in every
town.
In our own lifetime, we have witnessed the
same phenomenon in the U.S.A. and Britain.
When these nations were at the height of
their glory, Harvard, Yale, Oxford and
Cambridge seemed to meet their needs. Now
almost every city has its university.
The Fate of Empires 11
The ambition of the young, once engaged
in the pursuit of adventure and military
glory, and then in the desire for the
accumulation of wealth, now turns to the
acquisition of academic honours.
It is useful here to take note that almost all
the pursuits followed with such passion
throughout the ages were in themselves
good. The manly cult of hardihood, frank-
ness and truthfulness, which characterised
the Age of Conquests, produced many really
splendid heroes.
The opening up of natural resources, and
the peaceful accumulation of wealth, which
marked the age of commercialism, appeared
to introduce new triumphs in civilisation, in
culture and in the arts. In the same way, the
vast expansion of the field of knowledge
achieved by the Age of Intellect seemed to
mark a new high-water mark of human
progress. We cannot say that any of these
changes were ‘good’ or ‘bad’.
The striking features in the pageant of
empire are:
(a) the extraordinary exactitude with which
these stages have followed one another, in
empire after empire, over centuries or even
millennia; and
(b) the fact that the successive changes
seem to represent mere changes in popular
fashion—new fads and fancies which sweep
away public opinion without logical reason.
At first, popular enthusiasm is devoted to
military glory, then to the accumulation of
wealth and later to the acquisition of
academic fame.
Why could not all these legitimate, and
indeed beneficent, activities be carried on
simultaneously, each of them in due modera-
tion? Yet this never seemed to happen.
XIX The effects of intellectualism
There are so many things in human life
which are not dreamt of in our popular
philosophy. The spread of knowledge seems
to be the most beneficial of human activities,
and yet every period of decline is character-
rised by this expansion of intellectual
activity. ‘All the Athenians and strangers
which were there spent their time in nothing
else, but either to tell or to hear some new
thing’ is the description given in the Acts of
the Apostles of the decline of Greek
intellectualism.
The Age of Intellect is accompanied by
surprising advances in natural science. In the
ninth century, for example, in the age of
Mamun, the Arabs measured the circum-
ference of the earth with remarkable
accuracy. Seven centuries were to pass
before Western Europe discovered that the
world was not flat. Less than fifty years after
the amazing scientific discoveries under
Mamun, the Arab Empire collapsed. Won-
derful and beneficent as was the progress of
science, it did not save the empire from
chaos.
The full flowering of Arab and Persian
intellectualism did not occur until after their
imperial and political collapse. Thereafter
the intellectuals attained fresh triumphs in
the academic field, but politically they
became the abject servants of the often
illiterate rulers. When the Mongols conqu-
ered Persia in the thirteenth century, they
were themselves entirely uneducated and
were obliged to depend wholly on native
Persian officials to administer the country
and to collect the revenue. They retained as
wazeer, or Prime Minister, one Rashid al-
Din, a historian of international repute. Yet
The Fate of Empires12
the Prime Minister, when speaking to the
Mongol II Khan, was obliged to remain
throughout the interview on his knees. At
state banquets, the Prime Minister stood
behind the Khan’s seat to wait upon him. If
the Khan were in a good mood, he
occasionally passed his wazeer a piece of
food over his shoulder.
As in the case of the Athenians,
intellectualism leads to discussion, debate
and argument, such as is typical of the
Western nations today. Debates in elected
assemblies or local committees, in articles in
the Press or in interviews on television—
endless and incessant talking.
Men are interminably different, and
intellectual arguments rarely lead to
agreement. Thus public affairs drift from bad
to worse, amid an unceasing cacophony of
argument. But this constant dedication to
discussion seems to destroy the power of
action. Amid a Babel of talk, the ship drifts
on to the rocks.
XX The inadequacy of intellect
Perhaps the most dangerous by-product of
the Age of Intellect is the unconscious
growth of the idea that the human brain can
solve the problems of the world. Even on the
low level of practical affairs this is patently
untrue. Any small human activity, the local
bowls club or the ladies’ luncheon club,
requires for its survival a measure of self-
sacrifice and service on the part of the
members. In a wider national sphere, the
survival of the nation depends basically on
the loyalty and self-sacrifice of the citizens.
The impression that the situation can be
saved by mental cleverness, without unsel-
fishness or human self-dedication, can only
lead to collapse.
Thus we see that the cultivation of the
human intellect seems to be a magnificent
ideal, but only on condition that it does not
weaken unselfishness and human dedication
to service. Yet this, judging by historical
precedent, seems to be exactly what it does
do. Perhaps it is not the intellectualism
which destroys the spirit of self-sacrifice—the
least we can say is that the two,
intellectualism and the loss of a sense of
duty, appear simultaneously in the life-story
of the nation.
Indeed it often appears in individuals, that
the head and the heart are natural rivals. The
brilliant but cynical intellectual appears at
the opposite end of the spectrum from the
emotional self-sacrifice of the hero or the
martyr. Yet there are times when the perhaps
unsophisticated self-dedication of the hero is
more essential than the sarcasms of the
clever.
XXI Civil dissensions
Another remarkable and unexpected
symptom of national decline is the intensi-
fication of internal political hatreds. One
would have expected that, when the survival
of the nation became precarious, political
factions would drop their rivalry and stand
shoulder-to-shoulder to save their country.
In the fourteenth century, the weakening
empire of Byzantium was threatened, and
indeed dominated, by the Ottoman Turks.
The situation was so serious that one would
have expected every subject of Byzantium to
abandon his personal interests and to stand
with his compatriots in a last desperate
attempt to save the country. The reverse
occurred. The Byzantines spent the last fifty
years of their history in fighting one another
in repeated civil wars, until the Ottomans
The Fate of Empires 13
moved in and administered the coup de
grâce.
Britain has been governed by an elected
parliament for many centuries. In former
years, however, the rival parties observed
many unwritten laws. Neither party wished
to eliminate the other. All the members
referred to one another as honourable
gentlemen. But such courtesies have now
lapsed. Booing, shouting and loud noises
have undermined the dignity of the House,
and angry exchanges are more frequent. We
are fortunate if these rivalries are fought out
in Parliament, but sometimes such hatreds
are carried into the streets, or into industry
in the form of strikes, demonstrations,
boycotts and similar activities. True to the
normal course followed by nations in
decline, internal differences are not
reconciled in an attempt to save the nation.
On the contrary, internal rivalries become
more acute, as the nation becomes weaker.
XXII The influx of foreigners
One of the oft-repeated phenomena of
great empires is the influx of foreigners to
the capital city. Roman historians often
complain of the number of Asians and
Africans in Rome. Baghdad, in its prime in
the ninth century, was international in its
population—Persians, Turks, Arabs, Arme-
nians, Egyptians, Africans and Greeks
mingled in its streets.
In London today, Cypriots, Greeks,
Italians, Russians, Africans, Germans and
Indians jostle one another on the buses and
in the underground, so that it sometimes
seems difficult to find any British. The same
applies to New York, perhaps even more so.
This problem does not consist in any
inferiority of one race as compared with
another, but simply in the differences
between them.
In the age of the first outburst and the
subsequent Age of Conquests, the race is
normally ethnically more or less
homogeneous. This state of affairs facilitates
a feeling of solidarity and comradeship. But
in the Ages of Commerce and Affluence,
every type of foreigner floods into the great
city, the streets of which are reputed to be
paved with gold. As, in most cases, this great
city is also the capital of the empire, the
cosmopolitan crowd at the seat of empire
exercises a political influence greatly in
excess of its relative numbers.
Second- or third-generation foreign
immigrants may appear outwardly to be
entirely assimilated, but they often constitute
a weakness in two directions. First, their
basic human nature often differs from that of
the original imperial stock. If the earlier
imperial race was stubborn and slow-
moving, the immigrants might come from
more emotional races, thereby introducing
cracks and schisms into the national policies,
even if all were equally loyal.
Second, while the nation is still affluent, all
the diverse races may appear equally loyal.
But in an acute emergency, the immigrants
will often be less willing to sacrifice their
lives and their property than will be the
original descendants of the founder race.
Third, the immigrants are liable to form
communities of their own, protecting
primarily their own interests, and only in the
second degree that of the nation as a whole.
Fourth, many of the foreign immigrants
will probably belong to races originally
conquered by and absorbed into the empire.
While the empire is enjoying its High Noon
of prosperity, all these people are proud and
The Fate of Empires14
glad to be imperial citizens. But when decline
sets in, it is extraordinary how the memory
of ancient wars, perhaps centuries before, is
suddenly revived, and local or provincial
movements appear demanding secession or
independence. Some day this phenomenon
will doubtless appear in the now apparently
monolithic and authoritarian Soviet empire.
It is amazing for how long such provincial
sentiments can survive.
Historical examples of this phenomenon
are scarcely needed. The idle and captious
Roman mob, with its endless appetite for
free distributions of food—bread and
games—is notorious, and utterly different
from that stern Roman spirit which we
associate with the wars of the early republic.
In Baghdad, in the golden days of Harun
al-Rashid, Arabs were a minority in the
imperial capital. Istanbul, in the great days
of Ottoman rule, was peopled by inhabitants
remarkably few of whom were descendants
of Turkish conquerors. In New York,
descendants of the Pilgrim Fathers are few
and far between.
This interesting phenomenon is largely
limited to great cities. The original conqu-
ering race is often to be found in relative
purity in rural districts and on far frontiers.
It is the wealth of the great cities which
draws the immigrants. As, with the growth of
industry, cities nowadays achieve an ever
greater preponderance over the countryside,
so will the influence of foreigners increa-
singly dominate old empires.
Once more it may be emphasised that I do
not wish to convey the impression that
immigrants are inferior to older stocks. They
are just different, and they thus tend to
introduce cracks and divisions.
XXIII Frivolity
As the nation declines in power and
wealth, a universal pessimism gradually
pervades the people, and itself hastens the
decline. There is nothing succeeds like
success, and, in the Ages of Conquest and
Commerce, the nation was carried
triumphantly onwards on the wave of its own
self-confidence. Republican Rome was
repeatedly on the verge of extinction—in 390
B.C. when the Gauls sacked the city and in
216 B.C. after the Battle of Cannae. But no
disasters could shake the resolution of the
early Romans. Yet, in the later stages of
Roman decline, the whole empire was deeply
pessimistic, thereby sapping its own
resolution.
Frivolity is the frequent companion of
pessimism. Let us eat, drink and be merry,
for tomorrow we die. The resemblance
between various declining nations in this
respect is truly surprising. The Roman mob,
we have seen, demanded free meals and
public games. Gladiatorial shows, chariot
races and athletic events were their passion.
In the Byzantine Empire the rivalries of the
Greens and the Blues in the hippodrome
attained the importance of a major crisis.
Judging by the time and space allotted to
them in the Press and television, football and
baseball are the activities which today chiefly
interest the public in Britain and the United
States respectively.
The heroes of declining nations are always
the same—the athlete, the singer or the
actor. The word ‘celebrity’ today is used to
designate a comedian or a football player,
not a statesman, a general, or a literary
genius.
Post by: K-Dog on September 20, 2022, 04:31:28 pm
automatically acts as a stimulant to com-
merce. Both merchants and goods can be
exchanged over considerable distances.
Moreover, if the empire be an extensive one,
it will include a great variety of climates,
producing extremely varied products, which
the different areas will wish to exchange with
one another.
The speed of modern methods of trans-
portation tends to create in us the impress-
sion that far-flung commerce is a modern
development, but this is not the case. Objects
made in Ireland, Scandinavia and China
have been found in the graves or the ruins of
the Middle East, dating from 1,000 years
before Christ. The means of transport were
slower, but, when a great empire was in
control, commerce was freed from the
innumerable shackles imposed upon it today
by passports, import permits, customs,
boycotts and political interference.
The Roman Empire extended from Britain
to Syria and Egypt, a distance, in a direct
line, of perhaps 2,700 miles. A Roman
official, transferred from Britain to Syria,
might spend six months on the journey. Yet,
throughout the whole distance, he would be
travelling in the same country, with the same
official language, the same laws, the same
currency and the same administrative
system. Today, some twenty independent
countries separate Britain from Syria, each
with its own government, its own laws,
politics, customs fees, passports and
currencies, making commercial co-operation
almost impossible. And this process of
disintegration is still continuing. Even within
the small areas of the modern European
nations, provincial movements demanding
secession or devolution tend further to
splinter the continent.
The present fashion for ‘independence’ has
produced great numbers of tiny states in the
world, some of them consisting of only one
city or of a small island. This system is an
insuperable obstacle to trade and co-
operation. The present European Economic
Community is an attempt to secure commer-
cial cooperation among small independent
states over a large area, but the plan meets
with many difficulties, due to the mutual
jealousies of so many nations.
Even savage and militaristic empires
promoted commerce, whether or not they
intended to do so. The Mongols were some of
the most brutal military conquerors in
history, massacring the entire populations of
cities. Yet, in the thirteenth century, when
their empire extended from Peking to
Hungary, the caravan trade between China
and Europe achieved a remarkable degree of
prosperity—the whole journey was in the
territory of one government.
In the eighth and ninth centuries, the
caliphs of Baghdad achieved fabulous wealth
owing to the immense extent of their
territories, which constituted a single trade
bloc. The empire of the caliphs is now
divided into some twenty-five separate
‘nations’.
XI The pros and cons of empires
In discussing the life-story of the typical
empire, we have digressed into a discussion
of whether empires are useful or injurious to
mankind. We seem to have discovered that
empires have certain advantages, particu-
larly in the field of commerce, and in the
establishment of peace and security in vast
areas of the globe. Perhaps we should also
include the spread of varied cultures to many
races. The present infatuation for indepen-
The Fate of Empires8
dence for ever smaller and smaller units will
eventually doubtless be succeeded by new
international empires.
The present attempts to create a European
community may be regarded as a practical
endeavour to constitute a new super-power,
in spite of the fragmentation resulting from
the craze for independence. If it succeeds,
some of the local independencies will have to
be sacrificed. If it fails, the same result may
be attained by military conquest, or by the
partition of Europe between rival super-
powers. The inescapable conclusion seems,
however, to be that larger territorial units are
a benefit to commerce and to public stability,
whether the broader territory be achieved by
voluntary association or by military action.
XII Sea power
One of the more benevolent ways in which
a super-power can promote both peace and
commerce is by its command of the sea.
From Waterloo to 1914, the British Navy
commanded the seas of the world. Britain
grew rich, but she also made the Seas safe for
the commerce of all nations, and prevented
major wars for 100 years.
Curiously enough, the question of sea
power was never clearly distinguished, in
British politics during the last fifty years,
from the question of imperial rule over other
countries. In fact, the two subjects are
entirely distinct. Sea power does not offend
small countries, as does military occupation.
If Britain had maintained her navy, with a
few naval bases overseas in isolated islands,
and had given independence to colonies
which asked for it, the world might well be a
more stable place today. In fact, however, the
navy was swept away in the popular outcry
against imperialism.
XIII The Age of Commerce
Let us now, however, return to the life-
story of our typical empire. We have already
considered the age of outburst, when a little-
regarded people suddenly bursts on to the
world stage with a wild courage and energy.
Let us call it the Age of the Pioneers.
Then we saw that these new conquerors
acquired the sophisticated weapons of the
old empires, and adopted their regular
systems of military organisation and
training. A great period of military expansion
ensued, which we may call the Age of
Conquests. The conquests resulted in the
acquisition of vast territories under one
government, thereby automatically giving
rise to commercial prosperity. We may call
this the Age of Commerce.
The Age of Conquests, of course, overlaps
the Age of Commerce. The proud military
traditions still hold sway and the great
armies guard the frontiers, but gradually the
desire to make money seems to gain hold of
the public. During the military period, glory
and honour were the principal objects of
ambition. To the merchant, such ideas are
but empty words, which add nothing to the
bank balance.
XIV Art and luxury
The wealth which seems, almost without
effort, to pour into the country enables the
commercial classes to grow immensely rich.
How to spend all this money becomes a
problem to the wealthy business community.
Art, architecture and luxury find rich
patrons. Splendid municipal buildings and
wide streets lend dignity and beauty to the
wealthy areas of great cities. The rich
merchants build themselves palaces, and
money is invested in communications,
The Fate of Empires 9
highways, bridges, railways or hotels,
according to the varied patterns of the ages.
The first half of the Age of Commerce
appears to be peculiarly splendid. The
ancient virtues of courage, patriotism and
devotion to duty are still in evidence. The
nation is proud, united and full of self-
confidence. Boys are still required, first of all,
to be manly—to ride, to shoot straight and to
tell the truth. (It is remarkable what
emphasis is placed, at this stage, on the
manly virtue of truthfulness, for lying is
cowardice—the fear of facing up to the
situation.)
Boys’ schools are intentionally rough. Fru-
gal eating, hard living, breaking the ice to
have a bath and similar customs are aimed at
producing a strong, hardy and fearless breed
of men. Duty is the word constantly drum-
med into the heads of young people.
The Age of Commerce is also marked by
great enterprise in the exploration for new
forms of wealth. Daring initiative is shown in
the search for profitable enterprises in far
corners of the earth, perpetuating to some
degree the adventurous courage of the Age of
Conquests.
XV The Age of Affluence
There does not appear to be any doubt that
money is the agent which causes the decline
of this strong, brave and self-confident
people. The decline in courage, enterprise
and a sense of duty is, however, gradual.
The first direction in which wealth injures
the nation is a moral one. Money replaces
honour and adventure as the objective of the
best young men. Moreover, men do not
normally seek to make money for their
country or their community, but for them-
selves. Gradually, and almost imperceptibly,
the Age of Affluence silences the voice of
duty. The object of the young and the
ambitious is no longer fame, honour or
service, but cash.
Education undergoes the same gradual
transformation. No longer do schools aim at
producing brave patriots ready to serve their
country. Parents and students alike seek the
educational qualifications which will
command the highest salaries. The Arab
moralist, Ghazali (1058-1111), complains in
these very same words of the lowering of
objectives in the declining Arab world of his
time. Students, he says, no longer attend
college to acquire learning and virtue, but to
obtain those qualifications which will enable
them to grow rich. The same situation is
everywhere evident among us in the West
today.
Post by: K-Dog on September 20, 2022, 04:30:08 pm
and
SEARCH FOR SURVIVAL
Sir John Glubb
John Bagot Glubb was born in 1897, his father being a regular officer in the Royal Engineers.
At the age of four he left England for Mauritius, where his father was posted for a three-year
tour of duty. At the age of ten he was sent to school for a year in Switzerland. These youthful
travels may have opened his mind to the outside world at an early age.
He entered the Royal Military Academy at Woolwich in September 1914, and was
commissioned in the Royal Engineers in April 1915. He served throughout the first World War
in France and Belgium, being wounded three times and awarded the Military Cross. In 1920 he
volunteered for service in Iraq, as a regular officer, but in 1926 resigned his commission and
accepted an administrative post under the Iraq Government.
In 1930, however, he signed a contract to serve the Transjordan Government (now Jordan).
From 1939 to 1956 he commanded the famous Jordan Arab Legion, which was in reality the
Jordan Army. Since his retirement he has published seventeen books, chiefly on the Middle
East, and has lectured widely in Britain, the United States and Europe
Introduction
As we pass through life, we learn by
experience. We look back on our behaviour
when we were young and think how foolish
we were. In the same way our family, our
community and our town endeavour to avoid
the mistakes made by our predecessors.
The experiences of the human race have
been recorded, in more or less detail, for
some four thousand years. If we attempt to
study such a period of time in as many
countries as possible, we seem to discover
the same patterns constantly repeated under
widely differing conditions of climate,
culture and religion. Surely, we ask
ourselves, if we studied calmly and
impartially the history of human institutions
and development over these four thousand
years, should we not reach conclusions
which would assist to solve our problems
today? For everything that is occurring
around us has happened again and again
before.
No such conception ever appears to have
entered into the minds of our historians. In
general, historical teaching in schools is
limited to this small island. We endlessly
mull over the Tudors and the Stewarts, the
Battle of Crecy, and Guy Fawkes. Perhaps
this narrowness is due to our examination
system, which necessitates the careful
definition of a syllabus which all children
must observe.
I remember once visiting a school for
mentally handicapped children. “Our
children do not have to take examinations,"
the headmaster told me,” and so we are able
to teach them things which will be really
useful to them in life."
However this may be, the thesis which I
wish to propound is that priceless lessons
could be learned if the history of the past
four thousand years could be thoroughly and
impartially studied. In these two articles,
which first appeared in Blackwood’s
Magazine, I have attempted briefly to sketch
some of the kinds of lessons which I believe
we could learn. My plea is that history
should be the history of the human race, not
of one small country or period.
The Fate of Empires
I Learning from history
‘The only thing we learn from history,’ it
has been said, ‘is that men never learn from
history’, a sweeping generalisation perhaps,
but one which the chaos in the world today
goes far to confirm. What then can be the
reason why, in a society which claims to
probe every problem, the bases of history are
still so completely unknown?
Several reasons for the futility of our
historical studies may be suggested.
First, our historical work is limited to short
periods—the history of our own country, or
that of some past age which, for some
reason, we hold in respect.
Second, even within these short periods,
the slant we give to our narrative is governed
by our own vanity rather than by objectivity.
If we are considering the history of our own
country, we write at length of the periods
when our ancestors were prosperous and
victorious, but we pass quickly over their
shortcomings or their defeats. Our people
are represented as patriotic heroes, their
enemies as grasping imperialists, or
subversive rebels. In other words, our
national histories are propaganda, not well-
balanced investigations.
Third, in the sphere of world history, we
study certain short, usually unconnected,
periods, which fashion at certain epochs has
made popular. Greece 500 years before
Christ, and the Roman Republic and early
Roman Empire are cases in point. The
intervals between the ‘great periods’ are
neglected. Recently Greece and Rome have
become largely discredited, and history tends
to become increasingly the parochial history
of our own countries.
To derive any useful instruction from
history, it seems to me essential first of all to
grasp the principle that history, to be
meaningful, must be the history of the
human race. For history is a continuous
process, gradually developing, changing and
turning back, but in general moving forward
in a single mighty stream. Any useful lessons
to be derived must be learned by the study of
the whole flow of human development, not
by the selection of short periods here and
there in one country or another.
Every age and culture is derived from its
predecessors, adds some contribution of its
own, and passes it on to its successors. If we
boycott various periods of history, the
origins of the new cultures which succeeded
them cannot be explained.
_______________________________
Sir John Glubb, better known as Glubb
Pasha, was born in 1897, and served in
France in the First World War from 1915 to
1918. In 1926 he left the regular army to
serve the Iraq Government. From 1939 to
1956, he commanded the famous Jordan
Arab Legion. Since retirement, he has
published sixteen books, chiefly on the
Middle East, and has lectured widely.
The Fate of Empires2
Physical science has expanded its knowledge
by building on the work of its predecessors,
and by making millions of careful experi-
ments, the results of which are meticulously
recorded. Such methods have not yet been
employed in the study of world history. Our
piecemeal historical work is still mainly
dominated by emotion and prejudice.
II The lives of empires
If we desire to ascertain the laws which
govern the rise and fall of empires, the
obvious course is to investigate the imperial
experiments recorded in history, and to
endeavour to deduce from them any lessons
which seem to be applicable to them all.
The word ‘empire’, by association with the
British Empire, is visualised by some people
as an organisation consisting of a home-
country in Europe and ‘colonies’ in other
continents. In this essay, the term ‘empire’ is
used to signify a great power, often called
today a superpower. Most of the empires in
history have been large landblocks, almost
without overseas possessions.
We possess a considerable amount of
information on many empires recorded in
history, and of their vicissitudes and the
lengths of their lives, for example:
The nation Dates of rise and fall Duration in years
Assyria 859-612 B.C. 247
Persia 538-330 B.C. 208
(Cyrus and his descendants)
Greece 331-100 B.C. 231
(Alexander and his successors)
Roman Republic 260-27 B.C. 233
Roman Empire 27 B.C.-A.D. 180 207
Arab Empire A.D. 634-880 246
Mameluke Empire 1250-1517 267
Ottoman Empire 1320-1570 250
Spain 1500-1750 250
Romanov Russia 1682-1916 234
Britain 1700-1950 250
This list calls for certain comments.
(1) The present writer is exploring the facts,
not trying to prove anything. The dates given
are largely arbitrary. Empires do not usually
begin or end on a certain date. There is
normally a gradual period of expansion and
then a period of decline. The resemblance in
the duration of these great powers may be
queried. Human affairs are subject to many
chances, and it is not to be expected that they
The Fate of Empires 3
could be calculated with mathematical
accuracy.
(2) Nevertheless, it is suggested that there is
sufficient resemblance between the life
periods of these different empires to justify
further study.
(3) The division of Rome into two periods
may be thought unwarranted. The first, or
republican, period dates from the time when
Rome became the mistress of Italy, and ends
with the accession of Augustus. The imperial
period extends from the accession of
Augustus to the death of Marcus Aurelius. It
is true that the empire survived nominally
for more than a century after this date, but it
did so in constant confusion, rebellions, civil
wars and barbarian invasions.
(4) Not all empires endured for their full life-
span. The Babylonian Empire of Nebucha-
dnezzar, for example, was overthrown by
Cyrus, after a life duration of only some
seventy-four years.
(5) An interesting deduction from the figures
seems to be that the duration of empires
does not depend on the speed of travel or the
nature of weapons. The Assyrians marched
on foot and fought with spears and bow and
arrows. The British used artillery, railways
and ocean-going ships. Yet the two empires
lasted for approximately the same periods.
There is a tendency nowadays to say that
this is the jet-age, and consequently there is
nothing for us to learn from past empires.
Such an attitude seems to be erroneous.
(6) It is tempting to compare the lives of
empires with those of human beings. We
may choose a figure and say that the average
life of a human being is seventy years. Not all
human beings live exactly seventy years.
Some die in infancy, others are killed in
accidents in middle life, some survive to the
age of eighty or ninety. Nevertheless, in spite
of such exceptions, we are justified in saying
that seventy years is a fair estimate of the
average person’s expectation of life.
(7) We may perhaps at this stage be allowed
to draw certain conclusions:
(a) In spite of the accidents of fortune, and
the apparent circumstances of the human
race at different epochs, the periods of
duration of different empires at varied
epochs show a remarkable similarity.
(b) Immense changes in the technology of
transport or in methods of warfare do not
seem to affect the life-expectation of an
empire.
(c) The changes in the technology of trans-
port and of war have, however, affected the
shape of empires. The Assyrians, marching
on foot, could only conquer their neigh-
bours, who were accessible by land—the
Medes, the Babylonians, the Persians and
the Egyptians.
The British, making use of ocean-going
ships, conquered many countries and sub-
continents, which were accessible to them
by water—North America, India, South
Africa, Australia and New Zealand—but
they never succeeded in conquering their
neighbours, France, Germany and Spain.
But, although the shapes of the Assyrian
and the British Empires were entirely
different, both lasted about the same
length of time.
III The human yardstick
What then, we may ask, can have been the
factor which caused such an extraordinary
similarity in the duration of empires, under
such diverse conditions, and such utterly
different technological achievements?
The Fate of Empires4
One of the very few units of measurement
which have not seriously changed since the
Assyrians is the human ‘generation’, a period
of about twenty-five years. Thus a period of
250 years would represent about ten gene-
rations of people. A closer examination of the
characteristics of the rise and fall of great
nations may emphasise the possible signifi-
cance of the sequence of generations.
Let us then attempt to examine the stages
in the lives of such powerful nations.
IV Stage one. The outburst
Again and again in history we find a small
nation, treated as insignificant by its
contemporaries, suddenly emerging from its
homeland and overrunning large areas of the
world. Prior to Philip (359-336 B.C.), Mace-
don had been an insignificant state to the
north of Greece. Persia was the great power
of the time, completely dominating the area
from Eastern Europe to India. Yet by 323
B.C., thirty-six years after the accession of
Philip, the Persian Empire had ceased to
exist, and the Macedonian Empire extended
from the Danube to India, including Egypt.
This amazing expansion may perhaps he
attributed to the genius of Alexander the
Great, but this cannot have been the sole
reason; for although after his death every-
thing went wrong—the Macedonian generals
fought one another and established rival
empires—Macedonian pre-eminence survi-
ved for 231 years.
In the year A.D. 600, the world was divided
between two superpower groups as it has
been for the past fifty years between Soviet
Russia and the West. The two powers were
the eastern Roman Empire and the Persian
Empire. The Arabs were then the despised
and backward inhabitants of the Arabian
Peninsula. They consisted chiefly of wan-
dering tribes, and had no government, no
constitution and no army. Syria, Palestine,
Egypt and North Africa were Roman
provinces, Iraq was part of Persia.
The Prophet Mohammed preached in
Arabia from A.D. 613 to 632, when he died.
In 633, the Arabs burst out of their desert
peninsula, and simultaneously attacked the
two super-powers. Within twenty years, the
Persian Empire had ceased to exist. Seventy
years after the death of the Prophet, the
Arabs had established an empire extending
from the Atlantic to the plains of Northern
India and the frontiers of China.
At the beginning of the thirteenth century,
the Mongols were a group of savage tribes in
the steppes of Mongolia. In 1211, Genghis
Khan invaded China. By 1253, the Mongols
had established an empire extending from
Asia Minor to the China Sea, one of the
largest empires the world has ever known.
The Arabs ruled the greater part of Spain
for 780 years, from 712 A.D. to 1492. (780
years back in British history would take us to
1196 and King Richard Cœur de Lion.)
During these eight centuries, there had been
no Spanish nation, the petty kings of Aragon
and Castile alone holding on in the
mountains.
The agreement between Ferdinand and
Isabella and Christopher Columbus was
signed immediately after the fall of Granada,
the last Arab kingdom in Spain, in 1492.
Within fifty years, Cortez had conquered
Mexico, and Spain was the world’s greatest
empire.
Examples of the sudden outbursts by
which empires are born could be multiplied
indefinitely. These random illustrations must
suffice.
The Fate of Empires 5
V Characteristics of the outburst
These sudden outbursts are usually
characterised by an extraordinary display of
energy and courage. The new conquerors are
normally poor, hardy and enterprising and
above all aggressive. The decaying empires
which they overthrow are wealthy but
defensive-minded. In the time of Roman
greatness, the legions used to dig a ditch
round their camps at night to avoid surprise.
But the ditches were mere earthworks, and
between them wide spaces were left through
which the Romans could counter-attack. But
as Rome grew older, the earthworks became
high walls, through which access was given
only by narrow gates. Counterattacks were
no longer possible. The legions were now
passive defenders.
But the new nation is not only distingui-
shed by victory in battle, but by unresting
enterprise in every field. Men hack their way
through jungles, climb mountains, or brave
the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans in tiny
cockle-shells. The Arabs crossed the Straits
of Gibraltar in A.D. 711 with 12,000 men,
defeated a Gothic army of more than twice
their strength, marched straight over 250
miles of unknown enemy territory and seized
the Gothic capital of Toledo. At the same
stage in British history, Captain Cook disco-
vered Australia. Fearless initiative characte-
rises such periods.
Other peculiarities of the period of the
conquering pioneers are their readiness to
improvise and experiment. Untrammelled by
traditions, they will turn anything available
to their purpose. If one method fails, they try
something else. Uninhibited by textbooks or
book learning, action is their solution to
every problem.
Poor, hardy, often half-starved and ill-clad,
they abound in courage, energy and
initiative, overcome every obstacle and
always seem to be in control of the situation.
VI The causes of race outbursts
The modern instinct is to seek a reason for
everything, and to doubt the veracity of a
statement for which a reason cannot be
found. So many examples can be given of the
sudden eruption of an obscure race into a
nation of conquerors that the truth of the
phenomenon cannot be held to be doubtful.
To assign a cause is more difficult. Perhaps
the easiest explanation is to assume that the
poor and obscure race is tempted by the
wealth of the ancient civilisation, and there
would undoubtedly appear to be an element
of greed for loot in barbarian invasions.
Such a motivation may be divided into two
classes. The first is mere loot, plunder and
****, as, for example, in the case of Attila
and the Huns, who ravaged a great part of
Europe from A.D. 450 to 453. However, when
Attila died in the latter year, his empire fell
apart and his tribes returned to Eastern
Europe.
Many of the barbarians who founded
dynasties in Western Europe on the ruins of
the Roman Empire, however, did so out of
admiration for Roman civilisation, and
themselves aspired to become Romans.
VII A providential turnover?
Whatever causes may be given for the
overthrow of great civilisations by
barbarians, we can sense certain resulting
benefits. Every race on earth has distinctive
characteristics. Some have been distingui-
shed in philosophy, some in administration,
some in romance, poetry or religion, some in
Post by: AGelbert on September 20, 2022, 02:54:04 pm
Wow that post is...animated....?
Seems like mentioning that inflation just sort of comes with the world's current banking/financial systems by default would have been as informative, without the distractions?
Well, I was just about to leave for a month or so, but it being you were kind enough to read my post, or least the animations, let me provide this post for your benefit. I am sorry that I will not respond, as I will sign out immediately after the post:
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-170422160823-7441296.jpeg)
By Anthony G. Gelbert
IT'S THE SOCIAL DARWINISM, STUPID!
The Ethical Human Shows Kindness Toward Women, the Poor, the Outcasts, the Weak, and Those Who are Suffering in different ways. To the Social Darwinist, Empathy Practiced by Ethical Humans is irrefutable evidence of inexcusable weakness.
Quote
so·cial Dar·win·ism [ˈsōSHəl ˈdärwənˌizəm] NOUN
the theory that individuals, groups, and peoples are subject to the same Darwinian laws of natural selection as plants and animals. Now largely discredited, social Darwinism was advocated by Herbert Spencer and others in the late 19th and early 20th centuries and was used to justify political conservatism, imperialism, and racism and to discourage intervention and reform.
AGelbert NOTE: The above definition found in Bing is correct in everything but the part about Social Darwinism being "Now largely discredited". If anything, it is more destructively widespread than ever. Social Darwnism is the ideological cornerstone of Capitalism! Capitalism certainly hasn't "been discredited", but instead, has increased its pernicious (i.e. having a harmful effect, especially in a gradual or subtle way) influence on the fabric of human society.
Quote
"Capitalist ideology claims that the world is perfectly ordered and everybody is in their place (i.e. everybody gets what they deserve). This self legitmating aspect of Capitalism is Socially Catastrophic. This is the Victorian view of the world." Rob Urie - Author " Zen Economics
In the above quote, Capitalist ideology is equated with the Victorian worldview. The problem for readers is that most people, especially my fellow Socialists, associate the Victorian worldview with "Christianity". This 'common wisdom' (used too often among Socialists to make Christianity the whipping boy) is an erroneous assumption. The fact is that the Victorian worldview was Orwellian (before Orwell!), in the extreme, because it claimed to be "Christian" when, in practice, it was Social Darwinism, the antithesis of Christianity.
For those who claim that "Capitalism" is NOT "Social Darwinism", and 'I should not try to associate the morally bankrupt ideology of Social Darwism with Capitalism, which is only problematic for society when taken to extremes', please remember that exploiting the labor of other humans for profit, an integral part of the Capitalist's modus operandi, is NOT the MAIN goal of a Capitalist. The fundamental goal of every Capitalist true believer is to eliminate the competition in order to corner the market, thus guaranteeing price setting dictatorship which results in continually increasing the amount of Capital. This is socially destructive. WHY? Because, as more and more Capital is concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, more and more misery results in more and more humans.
To the Capitalist, this is exactly the way it should be. That is why anyone who cares to look at what Capitalism REALLY means to the Capitalist worldview will see that there isn't a dime's worth of difference between the ideology of a Capitalist and that of a Social Darwinist.
Capitalist ideology militates against altruistic behavior because it is a profit reducing "weakness". There is NO invisible hand "benefiting" (see: Orwell) society; there is only the "invisible" hand benefit (i.e. profit) for the self-interested (i.e. egocentric) individual, no matter what the cost to the community (there ALWAYS is a cost, NOT a benefit, to the community when an individual profits at the expense of others). A no holds barred "fiduciary responsibility" to bankrupt the competition is integral (necessary to make a whole complete; essential or fundamental) to Capitalism.
To clearly see the Social Darwinist rot in Capitalism, you simply need to understand that every Capitalist (see: "Apex Predator") sees himself or herself as a 🦍 self-interested individual, NOT a member of the community, duty-bound (i.e. morally or legally obliged to do something) to preserve and protect the welfare of his or her community.
Read the following and tell me if it doesn't fit EXACTLY with the Capitalist ideology dominating the USA today:
Social Darwinists believe that ethics based principles are 'limitations pretending to be virtues'. To them, ethics are 'feel good illusions' that humans invented to pretend our species has empathy. To Social Darwinists, empathy is irrefutable evidence of inexcusable weakness. To them, all who are guided by ethics are deluded fools that should be eliminated from the human 'apex predator' gene pool for the "good" of our species.
Enthusiastic converts to Social Darwinism have, to this day, used the language of evolution to frame an understanding of the growing gulf between the rich and the poor, as well as the many differences between cultures all over the world. The explanation they arrived at, and continue to use to justify biosphere trashing profit over people and planet, regardless of any alligator tear filled mendacious claims to the contrary, is that businessmen and others who are economically and socially successful are so because they are biologically and socially “naturally” the fittest. 🙄🤔
Conversely they reason that the poor are “naturally” weak and unfit and it would be an error to allow the weak of the species to continue to breed. 😨
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-170422173054-7752327.jpeg)
The 😈 money lenders have played a key role in funding this deceit propagated in high schools and universities, where it is passed off as "the Capitalist fiduciary duty of corporations to make a profit above ANY OTHER CONSIDERATION, be it the health and wellbeing of employees or the environment". It is, and always was, legerdemain formulated by the monied elite to dress up selfish, abusive, exploitative and cruel behavior towards "less important" humans and/or animals experimented upon in research labs, as "scientifically justified".
📢 Not only is Social Darwinism NOT scientifically justified in ANY way, shape or form, if we do not vigorously 🗽 act to make 🕊️ ethical 🌞 behavior sine qua non in our schools, businesses and all other everyday social activities and practices, AND take 🗽 punitive measures to permanently remove the socially, AND ☠️ environmentally, catastrophic influence of 💰😈🎩 Social Darwinists through 🗽 fines and/or prison, things will only get 💩 worse. 😬😵😱
Here are some quotes by erudite ✨ writers that clearly expose the pernicious Social Darwinist ROT destroying the fabric of our society:
Quote
"The American idea, meanwhile — descended from slavery — was just the opposite: only the strong should survive, and the weak should perish. Therefore, nobody deserved anything at all — even the basics — because human life had no inherent or intrinsic worth. Only the strong deserved such things — and they were the ones who could dominate and exploit and control everyone else." -- Umair Haque
Quote
"Trump’s failure to go strong with masking, “lockdowns,” and invocation of the Defense Production Act (to order the mass manufacture of medical supplies) reflected not only his desire to keep the economy going (ironically enough since failure to undertake proper public health measures deepened the economic impact of the virus) for his re-election but also his rejection of science and his racist, Social Darwinian, and pre-genocidal approval of how COVID-19 especially killed the old, the infirm, the poor, and the nonwhite and how the virus initially targeted big multiracial urban and Democratic areas." -- Paul Street February 7, 2021Agelbert NOTE: "Free-dumb", as described below by Paul Street, is indistinguishable from Social Darwinism in action:
Quote
"America became obsessed with free-dumb: the idea of freedom as the removal of all restraint, the right to harm others, the ability to do anything you please, no matter how destructive, toxic, foolish, or inane. Americans — in the vast, vast majority — think of freedom in a way that by now the rest of the rich world and much of the poor one regards as dangerously backwards. Freedom is the right not to ever have to cooperate, to invest, to act for the common wealth or common good. Why is America the only rich society in the world that doesn’t have effectively any public goods? No functioning healthcare, retirement, higher education, and so forth? Because of free-dumb. “I won’t pay for their healthcare, education, retirement!!” Why not? “They’re weak! They’re liabilities and burdens!! They cost me money!!” But wait, don’t you understand that means you won’t have those very same things yourself — because such social institutions are for everyone? “I don’t care! I won’t reward weakness and laziness! Such people need to be punished! And I should be free not to have support the weak!”" -- Paul Street February 7, 2021
Quote
"Environmental decline is a threat to the everyone. If people conceived of themselves as members of this community, rather than as self-interested individuals, then ending environmental decline might take precedence over individual self-realization. Before dismissing this formulation as utopian, we, the people, do constitute the community that is threatened by environmental decline. The social tension here isn’t between individual and group interests. It is between people who understand themselves to be members of a community and those who don’t. While granting differences by class on the road to environmental Armageddon, ‘we’ are the community that will be ☠️ annihilated. In this sense individualism is the ultimate authoritarian conceit." -- Rob Urie February 12, 2021
Quote
"Look at our world, our country, our interactions with each other… … this is not the mark of a healthy society, and if these are the self-appointed leaders of this flaming meteor… ... it’s time to move on... ... Let’s relegate these fools to history. They perpetuate a narrative that it is right to behave in a strictly selfish, exploitative manner towards all. We simply can’t survive it any longer. Things will change because they have to -- Kathleen WallaceSo then, do you agree that human society MUST embrace Ethical Behavior as the indispensable condition (sine qua non) in order to survive, and overcome, the onslaught of Social Darwinism?
If not, you can stop reading now. If so, please read on. All people of good will who truly want to change things for the better should ponder the words below, of Spiros Zodhiates, seriously, prudently leaving aside preconcieved (i.e. formed before having the evidence for its truth or usefulness) notions of the Gospel of Luke. Ethical behavior is not optional for people of good will, whether they be Socialists or not. And, if you are a devotee of Greek Classical Literature, you will certainly find this interesting.
Spiros Zodhiates,Th.D, wrote the folllowing introduction to the Gospel of Luke in the 1988 edition of the Hebrew-Greek Key Study Bible. Notice the contrast of the behavior of Jesus with what the "modern" Social Darwinist (See; "Apex Predators") empathy rejecting, morally bankrupt, "might equals right" worshipping ideology:
"The Most Beautiful Book Ever Written"
Quote
The Gospel of Luke (https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Luke+1&version=KJV) portrays Jesus as the long awaited Messiah of the Jews and also the Savior of all mankind. Special emphasis is placed upon the kindness of Jesus toward women, the poor, the outcasts, the weak, and those who were suffering in different ways. In addition, the book is filled with expressions of praise and prayer. Luke's account had a universal appeal, aspecially to the Gentiles. Jesus is presented as the perfect Man who is truly interested in every person on earth, no matter what his station in life.
Luke was aimed at the Greek mind, and therefore had to be written in a comprehensive, logical, and orderly manner. There are portions of the book which approach Classical Greek Literature. Luke has been called "the most beautiful book ever written."
There is little doubt that the author was Luke, the "beloved physician" (Col. 4:14 (https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Colossians+4&versi)). From the context of this passage we learn that Luke was "not of the circumcision" and, consequently, he may have been the only Gentile writer of the New Testament.
Paul refers to him as his "fellow worker" in Philemon 24 (https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Philemon+1&version). Several pasages indicate that he was a close companion to the Apostle during the missionary journys of the book of Acts.
He was with Paul until the very end (II Tim. 4:11 (https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=2%20Timothy+4&vers)). Judging fom the style of his Greek, we surmise that he was the most cultured of all the writers of the Gospel.
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-080922155156.png)
Post by: FarmGirl on September 20, 2022, 02:29:58 pm
Seems like mentioning that inflation just sort of comes with the world's current banking/financial systems by default would have been as informative, without the distractions?
Post by: AGelbert on September 20, 2022, 02:14:31 pm
[
Time will tell, of course.
This is a little complex, but will blow your minds, much like learning how banks don't loan out their own money but invent your debt from ether. Varoufakis talks for 25 minutes, and then again if you skip to 50.00 minutes for another ten. You need both parts. The ninnies in between don't add anything worthwhile, so can skip them speaking.
Europe is being bent over. Their bills doubling and tripling are nothing but financial shenanigans.
https://youtu.be/NicE0-N9ux0
About the electric grid, your point is getting into the apples versus doomer peaches distraction. NOBODY is going to eliminate electric grids accross ANYWHERE in the world that already has one. The fact that nukes and coal power a lot of them is 100% irrelevant to the discussion of Renewables, though it has always been a chore to get you to see that 🤦♂️. That is why I no longer hang around doomers. They are right about a lot of the doom, but totally wrong about the causes and consequences.
Varoufakis gets it about debt, funny money and so on. That said, Fractional Reserve (i.e. State Sponsored Counterfeiting for the benefit of the 1%) is old hat. Greenspan and his fellow crooks and liars in the Fed just went ALL OUT on the funny money from 2008 to the present.
See below for some details on why the Fed CRIMINALS are now between a rock and a hard place:
Wolf Street
Sep 16, 2022 by Wolf Richter • Sep 16, 2022 • 179 Comments
The Fed Stopped Buying MBS Today.
The purpose of MBS purchases was to repress mortgage rates and inflate home prices. That process has already started to reverse.
SNIPPET:
The last time the Fed did QT Nov 2017 – Feb 2020.
During the last episode of QT, the Fed shed MBS from November 2017 through February 2020. The chart below shows this phase of the MBS reduction. During the phase-in, it took about three months before the first declines became recognizable. QT back then was much slower, and the phase in was much longer, than in the current era of QT. (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-170922001754.webp)
Full article: (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040422164555-532108.png)
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/09/16/the-fed-stopped-buying-mbs-today
Reality Based Comments:
Thunder Sep 16, 2022 at 2:36 am
“The purpose of MBS purchases was to repress mortgage rates and inflate home prices. That process has already started to reverse.”
That last sentence sent a shiver down my spine because I never looked at it like that and it will punish the FOMO “real-estate always goes up” crowd. (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-050422144605.png)
Debt can be a two edge sword. (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-170422173254-804209.png)
WA
I find it sick that despite promising tightening, 🎩(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040622202719-1406786.gif) Fed was still buying MBS to maintain the balance sheet against pass through payments.
A class action lawsuit against US fed should be in order. Here is the probable text:
1. Fed MBS purchases artificially raises house prices and consequently raises rent expectations.
2. These higher rents resulted in Tillions of dollars worth of cumulative financial losses to 45% of all American households that rent over the last decade.
3. These artificially higher asset prices also resulted in higher property taxes for home owners causing them to lose billions of dollar cumulatively. The asset price gains that they received were reversed by QT.
4. To hold the Fed accountable for losses to a majority of Americans, we the people will like to Sue the US Federal reserve to recover our losses.
5. We would like the US courts to decide the matter and uphold the rule of law.
What do you guys think about this? (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-080822134118-1710799.gif)
AGelbert > WA
Your logic is sound but the problem for home owners, very difficult to overcome in the courts, is their John Handcock on the mortgage contracts.
😈 Greenspan began pushing this "wealth effect" SCAM 40 years ago. I am glad that reality is finally asserting itself because, throughout all that period, people who did not own homes were defrauded by Fed caused inflation (consistently low-balled by the BLS). Thus, while home owners were enjoying the ride, they, and EVERYONE ELSE, simultaneously got the (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-050422182057.gif) inflation shaft (i.e. loss of buying power) on just about everything else people need to buy just to live, never mind optional and luxury goods and services.
The Government computed cost of living was correctly computed before Greenspan began gaming it during the Reagan Administration. He kept 'improving' that game to steal from pensioners and COLA linked wage earners all the way to late 1990's.
Shadow Stats still provides the pre-Greenspan COLA numbers, which are always at least 10% higher than BLS published numbers. If you want more detail on how we-the-people, particularly those who do not own homes, have been massively defrauded by the (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040622210450-1415528.gif) Fed gaming of the COLA formula for over 40 years, check out the Chapwood Index.
https://wolfstreet.com/2022/09/16/the-fed-stopped-buying-mbs-today/#comment-466034
(https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.createaforum.com%2Fgallery%2Frenewablerevolution%2F3-280914153654.gif&hash=3555ba10ac278662b34a6e1afbd1be9ad63ce3bd)
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-130922212157.png)
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Agelbert NOTE: Wolf Richter, who usually gets the big picture, disappointed me, replying to the above comment I made, by mocking Shadow Stats as a "joke". (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040622153115-13851380.png) If Shadow Stats REALITY BASED inflation numbers are a joke to Wolf, then he has a rather strange sense of humor. Wolf wants to believe the Greenspan massaged BLS COLA (https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Frenewablerevolution.createaforum.com%2Fgallery%2Frenewablerevolution%2F3-251117175700.png&hash=00439d30db6e35817ea0d1fbcba614f1f971448e) "math". That is a textbook example of "investment (also called "Endowment") bias" caused ERROR in judgement. Wolf is cognitively invested in those numbers, so he rationalizes that the numbers are "correct" (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-120422122316-661919.bmp).
YET, it is Wolf that has OFTEN made clear how the "weighting" of "Owners Equivalent Rent" in the CPI (which is used in the basket of items to use for the COLA calculation) makes a mockery of the TRUE increases in housing costs AND Rent. Despite that IRREFUTABLE VIDENCE that inflation is, 🎩😈 with malice aforethought, being deliberately and methodically low-balled, Wolf just doesn't want to admit we-the-people have been defrauded for at least 40 years by 😈 Greenspan's "Wealth Effect" SCAM. 🤦♂️
Wolf Richter needs a reality check. Inflation is a MAJOR problem CAUSED by the Fed, which, BY 🎩 FED 😈 DESIGN, MOSTLY hits the poor and middle class. Wolf doesn't want to go there. If he doesn't GET (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-110422205132-6472099.gif) REAL, then he will pay a painful price (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-050422155724.png) for believing the la-la land BLS COLA numbers with hard experiences.
(https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Frenewablerevolution.createaforum.com%2Fgallery%2Frenewablerevolution%2F3-230815160919.gif&hash=e606a53bb5dc82bbd50eb8f079b9becc20109263)
None so blind as those who refuse to see.
The following article provides more evidence that the REAL INFLATION RATE is closer to Shadow Stats numbers than the BLS low-balled COLA pension and wage eroding Greenspan gamed formula.
SATURDAY, SEP 17, 2022
Inflation Causing Hardship (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-050422182057.gif) For Majority Of US Households
As inflation remains at the highest level in more than 40 years, millions of Americans are facing financial hardship due to rising consumer prices.
Statista's Felix Richter reports that, according to a survey conducted by Gallup in August, the majority of U.S. adults now say that price increases are causing financial hardship for their household, with 12 percent describing their hardship as severe, meaning it might affect their ability to maintain their current standard of living. Another 44 percent of households face moderate hardship, meaning that price increases affect them but don’t threaten their standard of living.
Unsurprisingly, inflation woes affect lower income groups disproportionately. While it’s relatively easy to shrug off price increases when it only reduces the amount of money left at the end of the month, it is much harder for people who struggled to make ends meet even before prices started surging.
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-170922174506.png)
Infographic: Inflation Causing Hardship for Majority of U.S. Households | Statista (https://www.statista.com/chart/26334/effect-of-price-increases-on-the-financial-situation-of-households/)You will find more infographics at Statista (https://www.statista.com/chartoftheday/)
As the chart above shows, inflation pressure has even caught up with high-income households, though, as 40 percent of those with household income above $90,000 now say they're facing financial hardship in face of inflation, up from just 29 percent in November 2021. The share remains much higher for low-income households, however, where 74 percent now was severe or moderate hardship due to rising prices.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/inflation-causing-hardship-majority-us-households
Getting back to EVs and mass adoption of them, if they are "no threat" to the pollution spewing gas guzzler status quo, as you presently believe, why do suppose the Hydrocarbon Hellspawn spend so much money demonizing them? If EVs were NOT competition for the Fossil Fuel CRAP out there, the Fossil Fuelers would ignore them. The fact that they take every opportunity to make up baloney negative stories about EVs is irrefutable evidence tha the hydrocarbon Hellspawn are using FUD against EVs because they know mass adoption of EVs is DOABLE. MASS ADOPTION OF EVs, if not tharted by FUD and some skullduggery, will destroy demand for gasoline and kerosene. SO, they LIE 24/7 about EVs, claiming EVs (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040622202527-13931485.png) "aren't doable". It is really easy to figure this out:
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-090422134615.jpeg)
See below for the latest exposure of the 🦖 (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040622202527-13931485.png) FUD cheap sophistry targeting EVs:
(https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/7Iwt1Obw1A9OF4rmgyl-UYRo4MEJDf68gFtbGNW6JHUtpykjdICNc8oASCFbrYsucF5Fg17XbLG86FfHFO8yE4EkX6gjGVlOvmRAD7s5dGscLlHcisQ_pzhkscbiV_-D4oBdJi6nkSe_a2el9qT1VJhzoNSsAEZvHHg=s0-d-e1-ft#https://gallery.mailchimp.com/d1f5797e59060083034310930/images/2f11cead-050f-4018-bfed-c12fb45691e5.png)
Make Nexus Hot News part of your morning: click here (https://newsletter.climatenexus.org/20201214-paris-anniversary-tx-oil-waivers-blm-proud-boys-dc?ecid=ACsprvtP9LIRcx9cfOaFYJGFTo6Wo-VHrrTxoSZXBB1iNg-UWMM2aVQlzF1IwYIVqFD9L7s5CwS4&utm_campaign=Hot%20News) to subscribe.September 20, 2022
(https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Frenewablerevolution.createaforum.com%2Fgallery%2Frenewablerevolution%2F3-121217195108.png&hash=34ddc1fd5afeb976b36342e73738ef155008be6d)
'Freedom of Movement' ::) Catching On As The Latest Euphemism For Polluting Cars And Drunk Drivers
In May of this year, when Koch-y disinfo spreaders were fearmongering about the government supposedly mandating a "kill switch" in new cars, we noticed that one was using a new phrase, "freedom of movement." Appropriated from the real world where the phrase describes the right to enter or exit a country, Koch-sponsored, University of Kansas assistant teaching professor Levi Russell used it as a political tool to attack President Biden and the general need for electric vehicles by suggesting that they're really a conspiracy to enable DC elite to control your driving.
Despite the total debunking of the "kill switch" lie, premised on technology to save lives from drunk drivers, Russell stuck with the approach. In late August he published another RealClearEnergy piece attacking electric vehicles and then reiterating his propaganda that "the ultimate goal of the so-called 'transition' to EVs is to eliminate our freedom of movement."
Similarly, in response to the California decision to move towards electric vehicles and eventually stop selling new gasoline-powered cars, Fox's Laura Ingraham called it an attack on "the freedom of the open road, our freedom to travel as far as we want, whenever we want… a clear assault on its residents' basic freedom of movement."
Pretty ironic, coming from rabidly anti-immigrant, "Build The Wall" Fox News — especially in light of the GOP's efforts to aid states trying to criminalize interstate travel for medical care — , to be suddenly championing the right of people "to travel as far as we want, whenever we want!"
And then there was Katie Pavlich's oped in The Hill, where, like Russell, she ran through the litany of bad faith criticisms of EVs before concluding the "push for electric vehicles isn’t about saving or cleaning up the environment for future generations, it’s about controlling how people travel and their freedom of movement."
But without the "kill switch" concept, these pieces are really stretching to fearmonger about Democratic dreams of somehow controlling everyone's cars like playing Hot Wheels.
EVs — the argument goes — are simultaneously not going to be powerful enough for long trips, despite significant public and private investments in charging stations, but also vulnerable to a faceless government bureaucrat surveilling your movement (which your phone does already anyway) and shutting down your road trip even though you wouldn't be able to charge up anyway, because a renewable-powered and fossil-free grid won't be able to supply enough electricity.
Or something.
And this is the problem 🦖conspiracists run into. EVs are supposedly both somehow advanced secret (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040622153114-13801246.png) surveillance tools of the Democratic deep state, and not advanced enough to actually work (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040622202551-13971996.gif), meaning people will continue to use old 🦖 gas-powered cars anyway 😈 instead of buying new EVs, rendering the monitoring scheme ineffective.
But hey, as long as you have a whole pseudo-media ecosystem to broadcast your EV disinfo, from RealClear to Fox News, it doesn't matter how stupid it is, your propaganda will have plenty of "freedom of movement."
Agelbert NOTE: I will be busy for a month or so. Adios, amigo.
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-210822142709.jpeg)
Post by: Phil Potts on September 19, 2022, 07:24:21 pm
[
Time will tell, of course.
This is a little complex, but will blow your minds, much like learning how banks don't loan out their own money but invent your debt from ether. Varoufakis talks for 25 minutes, and then again if you skip to 50.00 minutes for another ten. You need both parts. The ninnies in between don't add anything worthwhile, so can skip them speaking.
Europe is being bent over. Their bills doubling and tripling are nothing but financial shenanigans.
https://youtu.be/NicE0-N9ux0
Post by: AGelbert on September 19, 2022, 03:04:34 pm
If you REALLY want a clean environment, which sine qua non includes EVERYONE driving an EV, the irrational EV high price justifying game you comfortably wealthy people are playing with the rest of us HAS TO STOP NOW. (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040622210503-1417614.gif)
There isn't enough rare earth minerals on earth for everyone of the current cars to be replaced with an EV. It definitely can't be done again in ten years when the batts need replacing.
Then there's the environmental impact of mining and disposing. Toyota working on solid state Li batts might reduce that though. The fact they're also bringing out hydrogen cars says they don't have that much faith in EV as a total solution.
In any case charging capacity of the grid is another question.
My suggestion is if you live where it is allowed, get a e-tuktuk. If not, get a very light car and do a conversion.
If you are not capable of doing that or getting it done, get a E bike or trike, especially if you don't live somewhere freezing. If you need to travel more than its range sometimes, take public transport. There is schemes like pensioner card for that if you are broke.
Everyone driving EV the same size as the cars they have now is never going to happen.
(https://renewablerevolution.createaforum.com/gallery/renewablerevolution/3-161017163804.jpeg)(https://renewablerevolution.createaforum.com/gallery/renewablerevolution/3-020515211528.jpeg)
Electric powered tuk-tuks (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-110422180553-636818.gif)
Getting an e-tuktuk is good advice (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-120422122257-657398.png), UB (i.e. Doctor Psychiatrist Phil). E-bikes (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-120422122257-657398.png) are also an excellent form of transportation.
Smaller IS better:
(https://renewablerevolution.createaforum.com/gallery/renewablerevolution/3-291015234453.jpeg)
Of course THIS 🤠 will work too :D:
(https://renewablerevolution.createaforum.com/gallery/renewablerevolution/3/3-080222173045-361140.jpeg)
I have a 2018 Subaru Forester, but it is driven less than 1,000 miles A YEAR 🌞, so I'll just keep doin' that for the time being. We bought it new in 2018. It has less than 3,000 miles right now (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-120422122540-675484.png).
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-080822134118-1710799.gif) As to your assumptions about the of paucity of rare earth metals required in EV battery systems, I think that view is a bit extreme. If you and I are still around in 2032, you will probably not (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-140922211753.png) want to bring that particular subject up again.
High tech Hydrogen cars have been around for decades now. They bring out a "new" version every now and then, but they never seem to catch on. It is doable, but there are a lot of bought and paid for 👿🦖 Hydrocarbon Hellspawn out there that will do whatever it "takes" to (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040622210450-1415528.gif) kill mass produced hydrogen powered vehicles.
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-250422171828-11961874.png)
Time will tell, of course.
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-110822211726-1855411.jpeg)
Post by: RE on September 19, 2022, 12:42:53 am
https://apnews.com/article/colorado-river-denver-climate-and-environment-b9f34ebe2a8a7848926d856b4731b6d4
Colorado River at Crisis Point
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on September 18, 2022, 02:22:42 pm
If you REALLY want a clean environment, which sine qua non includes EVERYONE driving an EV, the irrational EV high price justifying game you comfortably wealthy people are playing with the rest of us HAS TO STOP NOW. (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040622210503-1417614.gif)
There isn't enough rare earth minerals on earth for everyone of the current cars to be replaced with an EV. It definitely can't be done again in ten years when the batts need replacing.
Then there's the environmental impact of mining and disposing. Toyota working on solid state Li batts might reduce that though. The fact they're also bringing out hydrogen cars says they don't have that much faith in EV as a total solution.
In any case charging capacity of the grid is another question.
My suggestion is if you live where it is allowed, get a e-tuktuk. If not, get a very light car and do a conversion.
If you are not capable of doing that or getting it done, get a E bike or trike, especially if you don't live somewhere freezing. If you need to travel more than its range sometimes, take public transport. There is schemes like pensioner card for that if you are broke.
Everyone driving EV the same size as the cars they have now is never going to happen
Post by: RE on September 18, 2022, 11:47:34 am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/18/weather/tropical-storm-fiona-sunday/index.html
Puerto Rico suffers total blackout as Hurricane Fiona brings threat of flooding, mudslides
RE
Post by: AGelbert on September 17, 2022, 11:58:26 am
September 16, 2022 By U.S. Department of Energy (Emojies and other graphics by AGelbert)
(https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Frenewablerevolution.createaforum.com%2Fgallery%2Frenewablerevolution%2F1%2F3-240718213433-14592370.png&hash=303e851c5feb196224d3a901ee609fed6437375d) Will Paris Succeed? (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-050422145218.gif) Research Assesses If Governments Will Make Pledges A Reality
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040422173931.png)
SNIPPETS:
Much of the world’s efforts to mitigate the effects of climate change hinge (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-050422132459.gif) on the success of the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement (https://unfccc.int/process-and-meetings/the-paris-agreement/the-paris-agreement) (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-050422132341.gif). A new Nature Climate Change study (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-022-01454-x) is the first to provide scientific evidence assessing how effective governments will be at implementing their commitments to the agreement that will reduce CO2 emissions causing climate change.
AGelbert NOTE: The following video, which is included in this article, is irrationally optimistic:
https://youtu.be/WiGD0OgK2ug
The research reveals that the countries with the boldest pledges are also the most likely to achieve their goals. Europe takes the lead with the strongest commitments that are also the most credible; however, findings suggest the U.S., despite having a less ambitious commitment under Paris, is not expected to meet its pledges. ... ...
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-020422162009.png)
A subset of survey responses from eight countries plus the EU were selected for being most relevant to climate mitigation policy. They rate Europe’s goals, or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), as the most ambitious and credible. Europe is followed by China, Australia, South Africa and India. The (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-080822134118-17091258.gif)🦖 U.S. and (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-080822134118-17091258.gif) 🦖 Brazil come in last place in the credibility category (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-010922185321.jpeg) and second to last, after 🦖 Saudi Arabia, in terms of ambition. (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-010922185321.jpeg) ... ...
Victor added, “Our results indicate that the framework of the agreement is working pretty well. (https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Frenewablerevolution.createaforum.com%2Fgallery%2Frenewablerevolution%2F1%2F3-250718202127.gif&hash=acc63221521ebaf3f238088fd92d1ae3a08b6e48) The Paris Agreement is getting countries to make ambitious pledges; last year nearly all countries updated those pledges and made them even more ambitious. What’s needed next is better systems for checking to see whether countries are actually delivering what they promise.”
AGelbert NOTE: Talk is cheap. Finding out who is delivering on pledges will do NOTHING to force any country to deliver on them. WHY? BECAUSE, thanks to MOSTLY the US, but also China, Russia, India and most of Europe, the Paris Agreement has ZERO pledge enforcement teeth. 🥺😠
Surveys where respondents were asked to rate their home country were categorized by continent to elicit the most candid responses possible. In this analysis, experts from North American countries were the most pessimistic about their pledges, both in their drive and ability to achieve climate goals in the agreement.
Full article: (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040622153115-13851380.png)
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/09/15/will-paris-succeed-research-assesses-if-governments-will-make-pledges-a-reality/
AGelbert COMMENT:
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-140822181130-19271084.png)
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-190722193007.png)
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-120422132945-7012374.png)
IOW, The Paris Agreement falls WOEFULLY SHORT of what MUST be DONE to avoid the FOLLOWING:
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-110822211151-18391633.png)
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-080422121435.png)Post by: AGelbert on September 17, 2022, 11:30:43 am
You Earned It, You Keep It Act (HR 8717)
My Federal Retirement
September 15, 2022
Proposed Bill Would Repeal Federal Taxes on Social Security Benefits
Representative Angie Craig 🗽 (D-MN) (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-110422180553-643238.gif) introduced last month legislation that would repeal federal taxes on Social Security benefits for retirees.
If passed, the You Earned It, You Keep It Act (HR 8717) (https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8717) would repeal all of the federal taxation on Social Security retirement benefits beginning in 2023. (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-050422180949.png)
Craig claims the tax repeal would be fully paid by implementing an extension of the payroll tax wage cap to over $250,000 a year. Under current law, wages over $147,000 are exempt from the Social Security payroll tax. (https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Frenewablerevolution.createaforum.com%2Fgallery%2Frenewablerevolution%2F3-250817121649.png&hash=4554f7e59701d12857946aece16bceb973c997b3)
“Social Security 🗽 is a promise we have made to the American people – if you work hard and play by the rules, the dignity of a secure retirement will be within your reach,” said Craig 🗽.
“But taxing the very benefits American workers have earned after decades on the job diminishes our promise and threatens to undermine the financial security of retirees already struggling with rising prices, “Craig said. “Eliminating this tax will help Social Security benefits go further and ensure that American retirees have all the resources they need after a lifetime of hard work.” (https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Frenewablerevolution.createaforum.com%2Fgallery%2Frenewablerevolution%2F1%2F3-120818180835-1624479.gif&hash=92c92575625c10582f9c1c6f9db969ad24bf62a8) (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-120422122257-657398.png)(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-090422150144.png)
Craig said that according to non-partisan analysis the proposed legislation would also improve the long-term solvency of Social Security compared to current law. (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-050422145344-560693.png)
To read the full text of the bill, go here (https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8717/text/ih?overview=closed&format=txt).
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040422164616-5368.jpeg) AGelbert NOTE: Below, if you are good at reality based interpretations of the Congressional 'how it works' for New Bills, such as the "You Earned It, You Keep It Act (HR 8717)" Bill submitted August 16, 2022 by Representative Angie Craig 🗽 (D-MN), you will learn 👀 how 😈 Pelosi, aided and abetted by her Chief of Staff, 👿 Primus (a neoliberal, Wall Street worshipping sworn enemy of ANY improvement of Social Security and/or Medicare - which is why Pelosi made him Chief of Staff), will do all these two 😈👿 enemies of we-the-people can to keep HR 8717 (https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8717/text/ih?overview=closed&format=txt) from EVER coming to the House Floor for a vote. A Floor Vote would expose the FACT that Pelosi, and too many other so-called "Democrats", are AGAINST improving Social Security. They don't want most Americans to learn that they are FRAUDS. So, Primus and Pelosi, on behalf of the 1% American Oligarchy Social Darwinist GREEDBALLS, will 'play' with the Scheduling Calendar to kill the HR 8717 (https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8717/text/ih?overview=closed&format=txt). 🤦♂️😡
However, if more than 226 Reps push for a floor vote, the corrupt Scheduling 'fun and games' will be thwarted and we MIGHT get some justice, for a welcome change. May God Hear the 🙏🏼 prayers of all the humble Social Security pensioners and force Pelosi to bring HR 8717 (https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/8717/text/ih?overview=closed&format=txt) to a floor vote 🕊️ THIS MONTH.
Congress.gov: Calendars and Scheduling
https://youtu.be/aCFf3o4bhgs
Library of Congress 257K subscribers
Congress.gov Legislative Process videos were produced by the Library of Congress (LOC). In service to Congress, analysts in the LOC Congressional Research Service (CRS) authored (Valerie Heitshusen) and narrated (Walter J. Oleszek) the videos for Congress.gov. Video also available here (https://www.youtube.com/redirect?event=video_description&redir_token=QUFFLUhqa3o3b1hLd0VJSV9scUxXcy14aTcxa09KVUo2QXxBQ3Jtc0tub1JzU2lkSXg0S3o1bklRVUZMQ0VtUC05Y2oxWlNYQlJ1RHgzVHotTTVEYmt4QlFXNGRyT21yX3JGZjlmNUxZMnVfcHpsczhNUTNydU5kcjlHeVhEMWYxNVg1a2l3RVI1eTBxQkhHcXIyUDVuTy1XSQ&q=http%3A%2F%2Fbeta.congress.gov%2Flegislative-process%2F&v=aCFf3o4bhgs).
This too will interest you: (https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Frenewablerevolution.createaforum.com%2Fgallery%2Frenewablerevolution%2F2%2F3-010519192158-2201430.jpeg&hash=e912e1f5bdc041c35e217478b14ba3f7960e2037)
CleanTechnica
September 14, 2022 By Carolyn Fortuna (Bear graphic by Agelbert)
Does It Cost Too Much To Purchase A Tesla?
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-240422203338.jpeg)
At a tech conference in San Francisco this week, Tesla executive Martin Viecha revealed the automaker’s plans for the next 5 years, including how a lower price model might work its way into production.
https://cleantechnica.com/2022/09/14/does-it-cost-too-much-to-purchase-a-tesla/
AGelbert COMMENT: Whether a Tesla is "too expensive" or not depends on some mistaken assumptions TOO MANY readers here have because they view "reality" exclusively through their "well to do" economic lense.
In the next paragraph, I will GET REAL. I'm sure some arrogant poster will try to counter my post with snark, disdain or some other bit of cheap, self justifying sophistry. I will not respond. Those with a conscience will read my words and consider them seriously. Thus, I will have achieved my purpose. Those without a conscience are beyond rational discourse, so their knee-jerk sniping is less than relevant.
Income above Official Poverty Level in the US is the correct standard to use to determine if a vehicle is too expensive or not. WHY? Because the stats on vehicle ownership in the US evidence that the overwhelming majority of people who purchase a vehicle in the US are above the Official Poverty Level.
The stats on EV ownership apply also, but not equally. WHY? Because the overwhelming majority of people who purchase an EV in the US are the extreme minority in the overall vehicle purchasing cohort. WHY IS THAT? Because the overwhelming majority of people who purchase a vehicle in the US CANNOT AFFORD to buy an EV. WHY? Because of their income level. Water is wet. Two MINUS 2 = Can't BUY, PERIOD.
The income level of the average EV purchaser in the US is MUCH higher than that of the overwhelming majority of people who purchase a vehicle in the US. Thus, a logical person who hasn't forgotten to add, AND SUBTRACT, comes to the conclusion that, at present, EVs ARE too expensive. Tesla EVs, because they are even MORE EXPENSIVE than the average non-Tesla EV available in the US, are MASSIVELY so.
So, Teslas aren't just too expensive; Teslas ARE WAY TOO EXPENSIVE!
Back in 2015 I wrote several comments to Officials from the State of Vermont in regard to the State of Vermont's Comprehensive Energy Plan (CEP). Here is a tiny snippet (it was 📢 LONG 🌞 (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/renewables/the-big-picture-in-renewable-energy-growth/msg505/?topicseen#msg505)) of what I continue to assert MUST BE DONE to facilite mass EV ownership, if you don't want a massive backlash from we-the-low-and-middle class-MAJORITY against EVs:
"The four years since the completion of the 2011 CEP have seen significant progress in advancing the recommendations and goals established in that plan."
Sure. But that is because the goals were too limited. This is a circular argument used by lawyers and/or politicians, whether they are lawyers or not. They create a set of goals that are "realistic" within the confines of political expediency, while ignoring the urgency of addressing the pressing need to eliminate dirty energy in order to ameliorate the effects climate change. ... ...
Ladies and gentlemen, there is only one way to measure "Progress". And that is because there is only one real goal. That goal is taking our parts per million of carbon dioxide back to 290. I am not surprised that goal is not ever stated in these types of programs. Even the 350 PPM CO2 goal of Bill McKibben would be more realistic.
I realize that Vermont is just a state and the problem is global but the effects are local. So, while percentages of this, that and the other carbon footprint reductions are good metrics, our progress can only be realistically measured by how we preserve the biosphere for future generations. The only proxy Vermont has available for reducing the ppm of CO2 is renewable energy percentage. As long we are not at 100%, we are making things worse. ... ...
Had Vermont given a 50% or more discount on sales tax for electric vehicles, some real progres on reducing transportation emissions would have been made. Even now, the state is mute about that (2022 UPDATE: Here is the Vermont 2022 Comprehensive Energy Plan (https://publicservice.vermont.gov/publications-resources/publications/energy_plan). There is some improvement, but it is still woefully short of what needs to be done. 🥺). ... ...
Where are the carbon taxes on homes larger than 500 square feet per occupant? Where are the incentives for people to heat and cool smaller spaces (AND OWN only one home)? And yes, people that heat and cool less than that should be paid for their frugality and contribution to a low carbon economy 📢 in rebates, not tax credits (the poor would not benefit from tax credits because they pay low taxes - a tax credit, like the $7,500 tax credit on EVs, helps mostly the well to do who pay at least that much in taxes - that's unfair). The needs of the poor, more impacted by climate change than the well to do, are unfairly ignored 🥺. ... ...
I recommend Vermont Convert all Federal Income Tax credits on EV purchases to rebates for Vermonters who pay less than the Federal Tax Credit on their Federal income taxes.
I recommend Vermont expand the Charging station network in Vermont to level two chargers for at least 50% of the all vehicles over a ten year period. Reduce sales tax on EVs by 50 to 100% until 75% of all vehicles in Vermont are EVs or ten years, whichever comes first.
Why aren't people who drive internal combustion powered cars rewarded for low annual mileage and why aren't people carbon taxed above 5,000 miles a year unless they drive an EV? ... ...
The conflict between the economy and the environment is artificial. It is imperative that, in discussing goals, the enormous pressure on our government exerted by polluting corporate 🦖 interests is considered as in defining the action needed to achieve those goals. Every advance in the percentage of Renewable Energy used by Vermonters equals less profits for the fossil fuel industry. Hydrocarbon 🦖 fuels Industry deliberate corruption of our government energy policies for the purpose of continuing to 🦖 privatize profits and socialize the costs is endangering the welfare of future generations. Their product is a liability, not an asset. It's high time that the State of Vermont admitted that. If you do not, at the outset, state that 🦖 fossil fuels are damaging our environment and, contrary to the propaganda, hurting the economy too, then you have not properly framed your guiding goals.
Of course you need to maintain revenue for the government. But not at an intolerable cost to the environment. And continuing to provide tax benefits for fossil fuels, be they gasoline, heating oil, kerosene or natural gas is counterproductive in two ways:
👉 1. It perpetuates the myth that we can continue business as usual with 🦖 fossil fuels as long as the state gets it's cut from the user.
👉 2. It defends a 🦖 dirty energy 😈 status quo condemning future Vermonters to the "externalized " costs the fossil fuel industry happily socializes on all of us.
The state of Vermont needs 🦖 fossil fuels like a hole in the head. There are a plethora of revenue streams from renewable energy sources that can more than replace every regressive tax now in place for the user of fossil fuels.
I do not advocate increasing taxes on gasoline simply because the poor are the most impacted by regressive taxes. What I do advocate is incentives in the form of rebates for people that reduce their fossil fuel use. The lowered health care costs for the state resulting from a cleaner environment will not show up on a balance sheet right away. So there will be people claiming this is "voodoo" economics. But it's not. Within a couple of decades, the benefits will clearly justify the costs.
This is what leadership is supposed to be about. Policies should look at the big picture, not engage in hand wringing over how much loss for state revenues incentives for cutting gasoline, heating oil and gas (no matter what Vermont Gas says) use would represent. ... ...
I find it absolutely irrational for people to complain about aesthetics when fossil fuels are quite literally endangering the welfare of future generations. Where do some people get the idea that it's okay to drive a gas guzzler but it's not okay to see a wind turbine on a mountain top? They think wind turbines are too noisy but roads full of gas guzzlers aren't⁉️ Ask anyone that drives an EV what it's like to have to listen to internal combustion engines all around you in traffic. ... ...
Financing is one of the subjects that leaves far more out than it puts in. The Federal Reserve can influence every Vermonter that buys a home but somehow, those low interest rates never make it to Renewable Energy infrastructure. 😠
We can have a cash for clunkers program but somehow, we can't have a EV for gas guzzlers program. 😠
We can have pension funds investing in 🦖 fossil fuel industry stocks but we can't have pension funds investing in gigawatt level State Funded Renewable Energy infrastructure. 😠 ... ...
If you REALLY want a clean environment, which sine qua non includes EVERYONE driving an EV, the irrational EV high price justifying game you comfortably wealthy people are playing with the rest of us HAS TO STOP NOW. (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040622210503-1417614.gif)
Post by: AGelbert on September 17, 2022, 11:11:58 am
The upstream water used to keep Lake Powell afloat is running out
When will it actually run out?
RE
I WILL run out, soon.
I just read you have a big storm going your way.
Alaska Pounded By Superstorm, May Unleash Worst Flooding In 50 Years
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/alaska-pounded-superstorm-may-unleash-worst-flooding-50-years
If that is bad info, good for you. If it is the real deal, Batten down the hatches, bro. (https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Frenewablerevolution.createaforum.com%2Fgallery%2Frenewablerevolution%2F2%2F3-010519192255-2204160.gif&hash=de6c6c0bd3105fb855b57f32ced4511750a4b1d2)
Post by: RE on September 17, 2022, 01:13:47 am
https://www.sltrib.com/news/environment/2022/09/16/flaming-gorge-falls-drought-felt/
Flaming Gorge falls as drought felt higher up Colorado River
RE
Post by: RE on September 17, 2022, 12:08:10 am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/16/us/colorado-river-water-lake-powell-flaming-gorge-climate/index.html
The upstream water used to keep Lake Powell afloat is running out
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on September 08, 2022, 01:01:57 pm
Plant trees and a vege garden. Put in water tanks.
I am stocking up on cigars and cognac to sit on my deck and watch as the world goes to ****. Might buy a rocking chair and learn the banjo too.
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
Blue Ocean Event 2022?
The image on the right shows a NASA Worldview satellite image of a blue Beaufort Sea (with Barrow, Alaska, at the top left, on September 7, 2022).
The image shows that there is a lot of open water between the coast of Alaska and the sea ice. To determine where there is open water and where the sea ice starts can be hard; the sea ice is often covered by clouds; furthermore, even when there are no clouds, the question remains what is to be regarded as sea ice.
According to many, a Blue Ocean Event starts once Arctic sea ice extent falls below 1 million km².
Arctic sea ice extent was 4.912 million km² on September 6, 2022, which is larger than the extent in many previous years around this time of year (see NSIDC image below). However, the sea ice has become very thin, resulting in many areas where only small pieces of ice are present.
NSIDC regard a cell to have sea ice if it has at least 15% sea ice, but when regarding a cell to have sea ice if it has at least 50% ice and if that's the case for ⅕ of the cells where there is (some) ice, then we're already in a Blue Ocean Event right now.
So let's have another look at how much of the above 4.912 million km² can be regarded as sea ice, by using the NSIDC map with sea ice concentration as a guide.
The roughly-sketched outline drawn over the NASA map below indicates that there may only have been some 991 thousand km² of concentrated sea ice left on September 6, 2022 (inset shows NSIDC sea ice concentration for the day).
As said, it's a rough sketch, so some cells with a higher concentration of sea ice may have been left out. Having said that, we're currently in the depth of a persistent La Niña and the associated lower air temperatures contribute to a relatively larger sea ice extent than would otherwise be the case.
In conclusion, depending on what is counted as sea ice, we could already be experiencing a Blue Ocean Event right now. A Blue Ocean Event implies the crossing of a huge tipping point that looks set to cause further tipping points to be crossed, as discussed at the Blue Ocean Event page.
The situation is dire and the right thing to do is to help avoid or delay the worst from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
Post by: RE on September 05, 2022, 04:50:56 am
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/lake-mead-water-level-historic-low-drought-heres-what-that-means/
Lake Mead's water level has never been lower. Here's what that means.
RE
Post by: FarmGirl on September 01, 2022, 01:54:31 pm
And I remember when we thought we would run out of oil.
Those were the good old days. Peak oil had real potential.
Post by: K-Dog on August 31, 2022, 08:40:56 am
Jackson doesn't have it.
https://abcnews.go.com/US/jackson-mississippi-water-shortage-crisis-cost-billions-dollars/story?id=89061056
Jackson, Mississippi, water shortage crisis may cost billions of dollars to fix
RE
Seems to me they never had a good system to begin with so building a proper system will indeed cost a billion or two considering what the tax dollar now buys. Politicians are enticed by creamy contracts where millions get scraped off the top B 4 the first bag of cement is bought.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thefamouspeople.com%2Fprofiles%2Fimages%2Fgeorge-carlin-1484-7.jpg&f=1&nofb=1) It’s a big club, and you ain’t in it.-George Carlin
Post by: RE on August 31, 2022, 02:00:34 am
https://abcnews.go.com/US/jackson-mississippi-water-shortage-crisis-cost-billions-dollars/story?id=89061056
Jackson, Mississippi, water shortage crisis may cost billions of dollars to fix
RE
Post by: K-Dog on August 30, 2022, 08:18:15 pm
Post by: RE on August 30, 2022, 04:21:05 am
Post by: RE on August 29, 2022, 01:11:08 pm
https://apnews.com/article/floods-pakistan-islamabad-monsoons-0525c15774ce7046752f4a0c1c0e2c37
Pakistan floods leave wrecked lives, half million in camps
RE
Post by: RE on August 29, 2022, 08:24:35 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zmgF1Hhkdw4
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on August 26, 2022, 12:37:00 am
Some ABC treeporn.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-08-24/mountain-ash-trees-climate-change-fire-logging-threats/101356494
JOW
I like tree ****.
Autumn must be hard with so many trees getting denuded
Post by: John of Wallan on August 25, 2022, 08:14:36 pm
Some ABC treeporn.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-08-24/mountain-ash-trees-climate-change-fire-logging-threats/101356494
JOW
I like tree ****.
You asked for it:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-07-29/vote-for-your-favourite-australian-native-tree/101210764
I voted for Calistemon (Bottlebrush). Once eliminated I voted for Mountain Ash. Tallest flowering plant in the world. I have used a heap of it for firewood over the years, along with local native Blackwoods. Part of the Wattle family.
Got local Blackwoods, WA Flowering Gums, NSW Calistemons, a Snow Gum and a few wattles on the property, along with a whole gaggle of random species of local and imported trees.
Dont want you to get too excited Kdog.
JOW
Post by: K-Dog on August 25, 2022, 12:59:18 pm
Some ABC treeporn.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-08-24/mountain-ash-trees-climate-change-fire-logging-threats/101356494
JOW
I like tree ****.
Post by: RE on August 24, 2022, 03:02:52 am
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/aug/20/ancient-crops-climate-crisis-amaranth-fonio-cowpeas-taro-kernza
Diet for a hotter climate: five plants that could help feed the world
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on August 23, 2022, 02:06:45 pm
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-08-24/mountain-ash-trees-climate-change-fire-logging-threats/101356494
JOW
Post by: Phil Potts on August 22, 2022, 02:12:31 am
Loire River:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-river-loire-sets-new-lows-drought-dries-up-its-tributaries-2022-08-17/
Rhine and Danube Rivers:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-08-10/europe-s-low-water-levels-threaten-rhine-river-hit-80b-trade-lifeline?srnd=premium
Yangtze River:
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3188972/yangtze-river-lakes-record-low-levels-heatwaves-drought-hit
Colorado River:
https://abcnews.go.com/US/colorado-river-basin-reservoir-levels-drop-record-lows/story?id=88456182
Euphrates River:
https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2021/8/30/drying-euphrates-syria-disaster
Post by: RE on August 22, 2022, 01:43:54 am
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/appalshop-kentucky-floods-appalachia_n_62fe82b4e4b077bb77a9bc51
They Never Knew The Water Could Get That High
RE
Post by: K-Dog on August 21, 2022, 08:38:54 pm
https://www.techspot.com/news/95677-heatwave-china-forces-factories-shut-down-affecting-intel.html
Heatwave in China forces factories to shut down, affecting Intel, Foxconn, Toyota, and many others
I guess renewables can't cool. Back to school.
The next thing we find out is no flying cars ever. Tusk tusk the lying Musk.
Post by: K-Dog on August 21, 2022, 08:34:33 pm
What's the Plan, Stan?
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/aug/18/century-climate-crisis-migration-why-we-need-plan-great-upheaval
The century of climate migration: why we need to plan for the great upheaval
RE
Not a hint of a plan in about 3000 words. We need we need we need. How failing economies are supposed to absorb migrants when their own are hungry and unemployed is going to be a barrel of fun.
But if we all lern 2 toad and make big bucks we can hire migrants as wage slaves and it is all good.
Is that a plan?
The author's name was pretty cool.
Good catch
Post by: FarmGirl on August 21, 2022, 11:35:48 am
What's the Plan, Stan?
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/aug/18/century-climate-crisis-migration-why-we-need-plan-great-upheaval
The century of climate migration: why we need to plan for the great upheaval
RE
Not a hint of a plan in about 3000 words. We need we need we need. How failing economies are supposed to absorb migrants when their own are hungry and unemployed is going to be a barrel of fun.
But if we all lern 2 toad and make big bucks we can hire migrants as wage slaves and it is all good.
Is that a plan?
The author's name was pretty cool.
Post by: RE on August 21, 2022, 05:58:15 am
Heatwave in China forces factories to shut down, affecting Intel, Foxconn, Toyota, and many others
Post by: K-Dog on August 21, 2022, 01:05:41 am
What's the Plan, Stan?
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/aug/18/century-climate-crisis-migration-why-we-need-plan-great-upheaval
The century of climate migration: why we need to plan for the great upheaval
RE
Not a hint of a plan in about 3000 words. We need we need we need. How failing economies are supposed to absorb migrants when their own are hungry and unemployed is going to be a barrel of fun.
But if we all lern 2 toad and make big bucks we can hire migrants as wage slaves and it is all good.
Is that a plan?
Post by: RE on August 20, 2022, 01:43:39 am
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/aug/18/century-climate-crisis-migration-why-we-need-plan-great-upheaval
The century of climate migration: why we need to plan for the great upheaval
RE
Post by: Nearings fault on August 19, 2022, 06:02:31 pm
I'll have to take a look at that one. Honestly the first generation of windfarms especially in Europe sucked. Not enough open land to put them in. Offshore for Europe is the way to go. North America is different we have large stretches of open windy land with proven track records. I'm not a big fan of large scale solutions personally but wind has a part toplay.Can you point a finger at a specific place that was cleared for a wind farm?
I know here they are usually placed in pastures, fields or grasslands and only after pretty detailed wind analysis to make sure they will be profitable.
https://youtu.be/7RgyLDVlAg4
My understanding is offshore wind is predictable, but inland wind is at various direction, strength and heights at various times. That's why so many are not turning when you see them.
Post by: Phil Potts on August 19, 2022, 05:12:45 pm
Can you point a finger at a specific place that was cleared for a wind farm?
I know here they are usually placed in pastures, fields or grasslands and only after pretty detailed wind analysis to make sure they will be profitable.
Germany as well
https://youtu.be/7RgyLDVlAg4
My understanding is offshore wind is predictable, but inland wind is at various direction, strength and heights at various times. That's why so many are not turning when you see them.
Post by: Nearings fault on August 19, 2022, 04:09:11 pm
I know here they are usually placed in pastures, fields or grasslands and only after pretty detailed wind analysis to make sure they will be profitable.
Post by: John of Wallan on August 19, 2022, 02:11:19 pm
Whatever your beliefs about the environmental issues we are suffering of late; and ifs it good, bad, or gods will, it makes little difference to what is happening on the ground. Do your research by walking around.
One of our most beautiful trees is also threatened. I like DM comments: If we **** in the nest enough it must make a mess.
Trees are what we need more of. They sequester carbon, they help with salinity, they provide habitat to wildlife, they provide sustainable fuel for heating and building materials, they filter the air and they look nice.
I planted a snow gum on the manor grounds... About 4 foot tall now.
JOW
Link:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-08-17/snow-gums-drought-bushfires-beetles-affecting-aussie-icon/101314218
Text:
Drought, bushfires and beetles: The climate-related trifecta threatening Australia's iconic snow gums
ABC Science / By Genelle Weule
Posted 9h ago9 hours ago, updated 4h ago4 hours ago
snow gums
Snow gums are the only trees to survive above the snowline in Australia.(Getty Images: Richard l'Anson)
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Rainbow-coloured boughs bent by snow are a familiar sight in the Australian Alps in winter.
But there is nothing like sitting in the soft grass on the high plains under the dappled shade of an old snow gum on a beautiful summer's day, says James Camac.
"Out of all the eucalypt species in Australia, I think it is by far one of the most beautiful," says Dr Camac, an ecologist from the University of Melbourne.
snow gum on ridge
The snow gum is James Camac's favourite tree. What's yours?(Supplied: Tom Fairman)
"It's a gorgeous, gnarly looking eucalypt, particularly the really old ones in the landscape."
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Two boab trees, which are bottle shaped cyclindrical trees with sprawling many branched small branches.
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But those who know the high plains of the Australian Alps can see these views changing before their eyes.
Snow gums (Eucalyptus pauciflora) thrive in cooler, wetter conditions.
Australia's six sub-species of snow gums grow in isolated pockets of mountains from Victoria, to southern Queensland, as well as Tasmania.
While they can grow above the snowline, they can also be found as low as Bega on the south coast of New South Wales.
But as temperatures warm, these iconic trees are being threatened by drought, fire and disease.
Moving up the mountains
In the northern hemisphere, trees are moving to higher altitudes in mountain areas to beat rising temperatures, but there is very little wriggle room for snow gums in Australia.
"The challenge is they can't really go down the mountain, because they can't compete with the faster-growing, taller species that will overshadow them, and they've only got a relatively small range to be able to move up the mountain into more suitable conditions as the climate changes," Dr Camac says.
Snow gum with mountains and snow in background
Snow gums will run out of mountains to move up.(Getty images: Southern Lightscapes Australia)
So far, the tree line has barely changed in the mountains where snow gums grow, Dr Camac says.
"In some locations such as Mount Hotham, the tree line may have expanded over the course of a decade by between five and 10 metres, which is not actually keeping in line with the changing climate," he explains.
While marginal shifts in tree line are seen in areas that haven't been burnt by fire, warming temperatures also encourage plant growth in the heathland, making the high country more fire-prone.
"If we get more frequent fires caused by lightning strikes, there's going to be potentially fewer opportunities for snow gums to actually establish, particularly beyond the tree line," Dr Camac says.
Fire survival strategies
Fire damaged snow gums
Fire-damaged snow gums on Razorback Ridge in Victoria.(Getty Images: A B Robb)
Snow gums are better adapted to fire than some other mountain species like alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), which only recovers from seed.
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Eucalypts may look ancient, but they took over Australia in a surprisingly short period of time.
Eucalypt bushland
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Even though fire takes out the crowns of snow gums, established trees can resprout from an underground lignotuber that stores carbohydrates.
"That's why you'll get these big, dead-looking trees, but you've got a massive resprout coming up from the base," Dr Camac says.
"Eventually the original stem or trunk will decay and fall away and be replaced by the new resprouts."
But, he says, as the frequency and intensity of fires roaring up from the foothills increases, older more iconic trees are less likely to survive.
"When people think of snow gums, they think of the 100-plus year-old giant individuals in the landscape, and if the fires go through and kill them, then basically you've just got these small, not particularly charismatic-looking individuals."
Dead snow gum trunks in snow
Regrowth of snow gums in Victoria after the 2009 bushfires.(Supplied: Tom Fairman)
It can take 30–40 years for the landscape to look the same as it once did if the trees are not burnt again in quick succession.
"People who go up now after Black Summer fires in Kosciuszko [National Park] will see what looks like all these dead trees, and they're going to have to get used to that for the next 30-plus years," Dr Camac says.
"I've had colleagues that have been working up there for the best part of 50 years and they were like 'I'll never see it as it was again'".
While the trees can bounce back in time after one fire, studies show they are less likely to resprout, and new seedlings are less likely to grow, after a second, and particularly a third fire.
Dr Carmac says the proportion of the Australian Alps that's burnt multiple times in 50 to 100 years is fairly small.
Fire damage to snow gums
Snow gums on the Dargo High Plains were destroyed by three fires in 10 years.(Supplied: Tom Fairman)
But some areas in the Victorian Alps, such as the Dargo High Plains, have had two to three fires in quick succession.
"I've been on sites that have burnt more than three times, and they are barren with erosion," he says.
Battling beetle infestations
To complete the trifecta, the trees face another threat in the form of a small, native beetle.
A large beetle walks across a person's hand.
A specimen of the native wood-boring longicorn beetle Phoracanthus.(ABC: Melissa Clarke)
The Phoracantha beetle has infested large tracts of snow gums living in high elevations above 1,600 metres, right across the Alps from Victoria to the ACT.
It is also affecting another species known as the weeping snow gum (Eucalyptus lacrimans), which only grows in a small area lower down the mountains near the town of Adaminaby in southern New South Wales.
Unlike the leaf-eating eucalyptus weevil killing ribbon gums (Eucalyptus viminalis) across the Monaro Plains on the eastern foothills of the Snowy Mountains, the wood-boring Phoracantha ring-barks its victims.
Death is slow. And no tree, no matter what age, is safe, says Matt Brookhouse of the Australian National University.
The gnarled trunk of a healthy old snow gum.
The gnarled trunk of a healthy old snow gum.(Supplied: Matthew Brookhouse)
The beetle starts by sucking the life out of the tree's crown. In response, the tree sends out more shoots beneath the dead area. But by the time the new shoots appear, the beetle is often ready and waiting to immediately cut off the new growth.
The cycle of death, resprouting, and death continues, but eventually the tree's carbohydrate reserve dries up.
"After a fire, even in the worst cases, you have trees sprouting from lignotubers," Professor Brookhouse says.
"After a tree has been the focus of a sustained wood borer infestation the capacity to regenerate is lost."
Markings and other damage on a tree trunk
The native wood-borer known as a longicorn beetle ring-barks snow gums from the top to the bottom. (ABC: Jess Davis)
While research is ongoing, Professor Brookhouse says the overwhelming evidence suggests these wood borers thrive when water in the atmosphere drops causing the bark to dry out.
"Much like a moat around a castle, it's that live wet tissue that surrounds the tree bowl that keeps it alive," he explains.
The tissue also keeps fungi and insects out and once that protection weakens, the tree's in real trouble, he adds.
More on the trees that make us:
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The final coup d'etat
So what happens when drought stress, beetles and fire are combined?
Fire can wipe out an emerging beetle infestation by killing the above-ground portion of the tree.
But if a tree has been under a sustained attack for several years, fire may be the final coup d'etat.
"We don't have enough monitoring data to conclude which way a fire is going to push an individual tree," Professor Brookhouse says.
A man with a beard operates a microscope over a cross-section of wood.
Matthew Brookhouse from the ANU is leading research into the longicorn beetle in the Australian Alps. (ABC: Melissa Clarke)
The wood-boring beetles also tend to infest trees that have recovered from bushfires years earlier.
"So fire itself may have a legacy effect that may encourage insect infestations."
And to complete the loop, by leaving dead trees standing, the beetles can contribute to fuel load.
"We have recently dated standing trees in Thredbo that were killed by Phoracantha in the early 1950s," Professor Brookhouse says.
"That was a very small outbreak … the outbreak we see now is well and truly beyond anything we've seen before."
The problem has become so bad along one of his favourite walks between Guthega and Illawong Hut in the Snowy Mountains, that all the trees have died.
"I think I could have swallowed it if it was a fire, but it's just catastrophic," he says.
"And it's not a matter of these trees are going to grow back — they're dead.
"The sight of that really broke me, it was just awful."
Snow gum dieback
Snow gum dieback on the walk between Guthega and Illawong Hut.(Supplied: Matthew Brookhouse)
The mountains have been wetter over the past couple of years, but it is likely to be only a temporary reprieve against beetle attack.
"The insects have a life span, we think, of at least three years so if we get three good wet years in a row, that will be immensely helpful," Professor Brookhouse says.
But, he says, dieback declined in wetter windows in the past such as 2010 and 2011, but then returned full force when conditions dried out again.
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Snow gums being decimated by native beetle infestation
While warmer periods can boost growth, it gives the beetles lots to chew on as soon as conditions dry.
"I have no doubt they'll still be there the next time severe drought emerges, and I would expect that we'd see another explosion.
"That's not a comforting thought, but at the very least, I think we have a year or two now to work through possible responses to it."
Action needed now
One of those responses is to trial planting lower sub-species of snow gums that are not currently affected by the insect into the ranges of the higher elevation sub-species.
Professor Brookhouse says it's hard to know why the lower sub-species of snow gums are not affected by the beetle, but it could be due to physiological differences.
Trees that live at higher elevations leave the stomata on their leaves open to capture as much CO2 as they can during the freezing winters.
This also means they may lose more water during summer, making them more vulnerable to attack.
"It's fair to say, though, that at this stage we don’t know, but we will begin working towards an answer with greenhouse trials later this year," Professor Brookhouse says.
The physiological difference between the sub-species may also make it harder to know whether low elevation species can survive above the snow line.
"But we're now at a point at which — and this might sound strange for a researcher to say — we can't to some extent wait for research outcomes to tell us which way to jump, we need to make some decisions now based upon what it looks like," Professor Brookhouse says.
Without doing so, he argues, the trees might not get an opportunity to move up higher to escape rising temperatures.
"At this point, the tree line is not going to get the chance [to move up], because it simply cannot move fast enough to outrun the insects that are on their way up."
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If the iconic snow gum disappears from an area, the landscape alters, and vital animal habitats are lost.
For people who have spent most of their lives in the mountains like Professor Brookhouse, these changes have a deep impact.
“When you have a strong connection to a place and it's altered ... part of your identity that's very much tied to your home and those places is lost in that moment,” he says.
Catalyst is exploring the extraordinary lives of eight of Australia's oldest, largest and most iconic trees — watch part one on ABC iview.
Part two, where an expert judging panel will select their favourite tree, airs at 8:30pm on Tuesday, August 23 on ABC TV and ABC iview.
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I could not agree more that cutting down less and planting more trees are the the best thing we can do. It really pisses me off when vast swaths of forest in non windy or intermittently windy places are cleared for wind farms, then rarely turn. Also the bases for them are huge deep concrete slabs while we are informed cement/concrete is a major source of greenhouse gas. I presume that is from the chemical reaction.
There is no point planting trees on depleted aquifers though. You know 10km2 of trees are cleared in queersland daily?
Before you or anyone else jumps to the conclusion I don't believe in AGW, consider this. Before moving here in June 2013, I went and sussed out a 400 acre of bush property on the pristine Katherine River, in Nov 2012 that my mum owns. It would have cost me nothing. I didn't decide against it because of the 6m man-eaters in the river now that has caused banning of not only swimming but canoeing, but because of climate change. Where I bought instead was no man's land between the hostile Aboriginal tribes before white settlement because it was too cold and covered by glacier thousands of years ago. I don't know how that is reconciled with all the local history of aborigines raiding farms and setting fire to houses then spearing everyone who ran out. Tullochgorum is about 10km from here, and they say if you stay there overnight you hear screams from the same. Locals have families here since around 1860 and they say the aborigines gave just as good as they got in killing, but they never killed convicts, but fed and hid escapees come bushrangers. Numerous stories of the farmhouse and guard houses burnt and killed, but the convict cells left alone. Not only that, but freedmen who somehow lived out their sentence without being worked to death, or freezing to death and then built a tiny house and subsistence farmed on marginal land, also left alone. Their houses, huts really, still more or less stand.
Cool.
We finally have some common ground, on all points. Re-knewabes are not the answer. Use less is the answer.
I will post some more tree **** shortly. Have planted a few more recently, mainly calistemons. (Bottlebrush). They look nice, and attract bees. Expected wet summer means they get established easier, so good year to plant more.
Been to every state and territory except NT. Thats on my bucket list. Seen plenty of crocs in the Daintree River in FNQ not far from where dad comes from. (Tully) I imagine the area around Katherine would be pretty wild and pristine.
JOW
Post by: Phil Potts on August 19, 2022, 12:08:57 am
Quote from: Phil PottsSo try keeping up and dealing with what I'm saying instead of wasting time with the unspecified science of whatnot and stuff. The equation is in your own reference.
I see. How about we deal with the science refuting the science, and ask the obvious question as to why you haven't found any yet? Unspecified science and whatnot... indeed. You understand it is suspicious, the enthusiasm you employ to avoid the science involved? Good luck with that, and have a good day.
Oh so now u want to talk about theology and temporal phenomena.
Ahhhh....no. But I think I've learned the lesson you are attempting to teach here. Good luck with theology and whatnot proving science isn't science, or whatever, and you sir have a nice day.
So "is" isn't "is". Science is sober method making sense of data, not an attitude that an authority has already figured everything out. It deals in specifics, not whatnot/stuff/whatever. Deferring to such undefined and nebulous concepts serve only ego protection. "Sir" is a perfect example of what was thought to be scientific hetrodoxy being overturned, as a Y chromosome no longer means male.
In neuroscience, we thought serotonin was central to depression Now we realise there is no real connection and it was drug companies corrupting research, responsible for the false belief. 15 yrs ago I thought I must be seeing things, with the drugs based on that belief making so many people worse.
Until very recently, we believed it absolutely foundational that reading and doing puzzles was key to preserving brain health and staving off dementia. Now we know that is a distant second to movement and can even be bad for your brain. Not just exercise, but full range of gross motor movement. Who would ever have guessed that what we know is a function of the cerebellum, correlates directly with the cerebral cortex? It was right under our noses the whole time.
We knew for 50-100 yrs that Korsakoff symptom with brain shrinking was accompanied by shuffling gait, taking small steps, but nobody realised there is a bidirectional effect. We never considered that taking longer steps and swinging arms deliberately, staves off loss of neurones.
You often see a senior citizen jogging, taking tiny steps. They are getting the full benefit of cardiovascular exercise, which is certainly good for the brain in huge measure, but I know their cognitive function is way down, even though they probably lived quite healthily in terms of drugs and diet. Too much mental work builds up glutamate in the brain, which is detrimental. The problem has been hugely compounded by computer screens which give off light that keeps people awake longer than is good. That prevents the glial cells in the brain doing their job of effectively cleaning up, leading to loss of memory and other function. Said geezer would be way better not jogging, but walking and taking long strides, swinging their arms, associated also with longer telemeres in all cells, even if they are less aerobically fit. Maybe we are best suited to seasonal and interglacial migrations.
Post by: Phil Potts on August 18, 2022, 11:13:34 pm
I "enjoyed" this article as it gives a glimpse into the past. Worst drought in 500 years...
https://www.sciencealert.com/hidden-hunger-stones-reveal-drought-warnings-from-the-past
Good read. Of course this being the worst in 500 yrs if it doesn't rain another 3 months, assumes that the past times the river got this low rained soon after.
The other interesting thing is 1890. That year comes up again and again for temp records or previous record, on opposite sides of the globe. Eg mackay Qld got 73c. In contrast now, we see extreme cold and wet in one place with extreme heat in another. I first started to wonder about that when the storm that flooded NYC happened in 2011-12. Before that, it seemed weather near me was normal when an extreme event of storm, drought or flood happened elsewhere. That time though, it was completely anomalous suddenly cold and windy, totally out of season, as far away from NYC as you could get. Now, as JOW has given example of, that's the typical pattern. My sister lives in Alice Springs and they're having overnight -4 most nights with max below 20. Coldest winter in at least a decade which may yet break 2012 and 1976 coldest records, while London clocks 40c for the first time since we started records.
Post by: Phil Potts on August 18, 2022, 09:58:25 pm
Whatever your beliefs about the environmental issues we are suffering of late; and ifs it good, bad, or gods will, it makes little difference to what is happening on the ground. Do your research by walking around.
One of our most beautiful trees is also threatened. I like DM comments: If we **** in the nest enough it must make a mess.
Trees are what we need more of. They sequester carbon, they help with salinity, they provide habitat to wildlife, they provide sustainable fuel for heating and building materials, they filter the air and they look nice.
I planted a snow gum on the manor grounds... About 4 foot tall now.
JOW
Link:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-08-17/snow-gums-drought-bushfires-beetles-affecting-aussie-icon/101314218
Text:
Drought, bushfires and beetles: The climate-related trifecta threatening Australia's iconic snow gums
ABC Science / By Genelle Weule
Posted 9h ago9 hours ago, updated 4h ago4 hours ago
snow gums
Snow gums are the only trees to survive above the snowline in Australia.(Getty Images: Richard l'Anson)
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Rainbow-coloured boughs bent by snow are a familiar sight in the Australian Alps in winter.
But there is nothing like sitting in the soft grass on the high plains under the dappled shade of an old snow gum on a beautiful summer's day, says James Camac.
"Out of all the eucalypt species in Australia, I think it is by far one of the most beautiful," says Dr Camac, an ecologist from the University of Melbourne.
snow gum on ridge
The snow gum is James Camac's favourite tree. What's yours?(Supplied: Tom Fairman)
"It's a gorgeous, gnarly looking eucalypt, particularly the really old ones in the landscape."
Make sure you vote in the search for Australia's favourite tree
Which tree will be crowned Australia's favourite? Go out on a limb and vote for your most loved species.
Two boab trees, which are bottle shaped cyclindrical trees with sprawling many branched small branches.
Read more
But those who know the high plains of the Australian Alps can see these views changing before their eyes.
Snow gums (Eucalyptus pauciflora) thrive in cooler, wetter conditions.
Australia's six sub-species of snow gums grow in isolated pockets of mountains from Victoria, to southern Queensland, as well as Tasmania.
While they can grow above the snowline, they can also be found as low as Bega on the south coast of New South Wales.
But as temperatures warm, these iconic trees are being threatened by drought, fire and disease.
Moving up the mountains
In the northern hemisphere, trees are moving to higher altitudes in mountain areas to beat rising temperatures, but there is very little wriggle room for snow gums in Australia.
"The challenge is they can't really go down the mountain, because they can't compete with the faster-growing, taller species that will overshadow them, and they've only got a relatively small range to be able to move up the mountain into more suitable conditions as the climate changes," Dr Camac says.
Snow gum with mountains and snow in background
Snow gums will run out of mountains to move up.(Getty images: Southern Lightscapes Australia)
So far, the tree line has barely changed in the mountains where snow gums grow, Dr Camac says.
"In some locations such as Mount Hotham, the tree line may have expanded over the course of a decade by between five and 10 metres, which is not actually keeping in line with the changing climate," he explains.
While marginal shifts in tree line are seen in areas that haven't been burnt by fire, warming temperatures also encourage plant growth in the heathland, making the high country more fire-prone.
"If we get more frequent fires caused by lightning strikes, there's going to be potentially fewer opportunities for snow gums to actually establish, particularly beyond the tree line," Dr Camac says.
Fire survival strategies
Fire damaged snow gums
Fire-damaged snow gums on Razorback Ridge in Victoria.(Getty Images: A B Robb)
Snow gums are better adapted to fire than some other mountain species like alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), which only recovers from seed.
How the eucalypt took over our landscape
Eucalypts may look ancient, but they took over Australia in a surprisingly short period of time.
Eucalypt bushland
Read more
Even though fire takes out the crowns of snow gums, established trees can resprout from an underground lignotuber that stores carbohydrates.
"That's why you'll get these big, dead-looking trees, but you've got a massive resprout coming up from the base," Dr Camac says.
"Eventually the original stem or trunk will decay and fall away and be replaced by the new resprouts."
But, he says, as the frequency and intensity of fires roaring up from the foothills increases, older more iconic trees are less likely to survive.
"When people think of snow gums, they think of the 100-plus year-old giant individuals in the landscape, and if the fires go through and kill them, then basically you've just got these small, not particularly charismatic-looking individuals."
Dead snow gum trunks in snow
Regrowth of snow gums in Victoria after the 2009 bushfires.(Supplied: Tom Fairman)
It can take 30–40 years for the landscape to look the same as it once did if the trees are not burnt again in quick succession.
"People who go up now after Black Summer fires in Kosciuszko [National Park] will see what looks like all these dead trees, and they're going to have to get used to that for the next 30-plus years," Dr Camac says.
"I've had colleagues that have been working up there for the best part of 50 years and they were like 'I'll never see it as it was again'".
While the trees can bounce back in time after one fire, studies show they are less likely to resprout, and new seedlings are less likely to grow, after a second, and particularly a third fire.
Dr Carmac says the proportion of the Australian Alps that's burnt multiple times in 50 to 100 years is fairly small.
Fire damage to snow gums
Snow gums on the Dargo High Plains were destroyed by three fires in 10 years.(Supplied: Tom Fairman)
But some areas in the Victorian Alps, such as the Dargo High Plains, have had two to three fires in quick succession.
"I've been on sites that have burnt more than three times, and they are barren with erosion," he says.
Battling beetle infestations
To complete the trifecta, the trees face another threat in the form of a small, native beetle.
A large beetle walks across a person's hand.
A specimen of the native wood-boring longicorn beetle Phoracanthus.(ABC: Melissa Clarke)
The Phoracantha beetle has infested large tracts of snow gums living in high elevations above 1,600 metres, right across the Alps from Victoria to the ACT.
It is also affecting another species known as the weeping snow gum (Eucalyptus lacrimans), which only grows in a small area lower down the mountains near the town of Adaminaby in southern New South Wales.
Unlike the leaf-eating eucalyptus weevil killing ribbon gums (Eucalyptus viminalis) across the Monaro Plains on the eastern foothills of the Snowy Mountains, the wood-boring Phoracantha ring-barks its victims.
Death is slow. And no tree, no matter what age, is safe, says Matt Brookhouse of the Australian National University.
The gnarled trunk of a healthy old snow gum.
The gnarled trunk of a healthy old snow gum.(Supplied: Matthew Brookhouse)
The beetle starts by sucking the life out of the tree's crown. In response, the tree sends out more shoots beneath the dead area. But by the time the new shoots appear, the beetle is often ready and waiting to immediately cut off the new growth.
The cycle of death, resprouting, and death continues, but eventually the tree's carbohydrate reserve dries up.
"After a fire, even in the worst cases, you have trees sprouting from lignotubers," Professor Brookhouse says.
"After a tree has been the focus of a sustained wood borer infestation the capacity to regenerate is lost."
Markings and other damage on a tree trunk
The native wood-borer known as a longicorn beetle ring-barks snow gums from the top to the bottom. (ABC: Jess Davis)
While research is ongoing, Professor Brookhouse says the overwhelming evidence suggests these wood borers thrive when water in the atmosphere drops causing the bark to dry out.
"Much like a moat around a castle, it's that live wet tissue that surrounds the tree bowl that keeps it alive," he explains.
The tissue also keeps fungi and insects out and once that protection weakens, the tree's in real trouble, he adds.
More on the trees that make us:
Vote in our poll to find Australia's top native
Think you know your native trees? Prove it
Why Australia's iconic snow gum is under threat
The unprecedented pandemic killing our native trees
Who are you calling 'tree hugger'?
How to take care of our trees
This Australian icon's family tree is shrouded in mystery
Trees and fungi are the ultimate friends with benefits
The final coup d'etat
So what happens when drought stress, beetles and fire are combined?
Fire can wipe out an emerging beetle infestation by killing the above-ground portion of the tree.
But if a tree has been under a sustained attack for several years, fire may be the final coup d'etat.
"We don't have enough monitoring data to conclude which way a fire is going to push an individual tree," Professor Brookhouse says.
A man with a beard operates a microscope over a cross-section of wood.
Matthew Brookhouse from the ANU is leading research into the longicorn beetle in the Australian Alps. (ABC: Melissa Clarke)
The wood-boring beetles also tend to infest trees that have recovered from bushfires years earlier.
"So fire itself may have a legacy effect that may encourage insect infestations."
And to complete the loop, by leaving dead trees standing, the beetles can contribute to fuel load.
"We have recently dated standing trees in Thredbo that were killed by Phoracantha in the early 1950s," Professor Brookhouse says.
"That was a very small outbreak … the outbreak we see now is well and truly beyond anything we've seen before."
The problem has become so bad along one of his favourite walks between Guthega and Illawong Hut in the Snowy Mountains, that all the trees have died.
"I think I could have swallowed it if it was a fire, but it's just catastrophic," he says.
"And it's not a matter of these trees are going to grow back — they're dead.
"The sight of that really broke me, it was just awful."
Snow gum dieback
Snow gum dieback on the walk between Guthega and Illawong Hut.(Supplied: Matthew Brookhouse)
The mountains have been wetter over the past couple of years, but it is likely to be only a temporary reprieve against beetle attack.
"The insects have a life span, we think, of at least three years so if we get three good wet years in a row, that will be immensely helpful," Professor Brookhouse says.
But, he says, dieback declined in wetter windows in the past such as 2010 and 2011, but then returned full force when conditions dried out again.
Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.
WATCH
Duration: 2 minutes 8 seconds2m 8s
Play Video. Duration: 2 minutes 8 seconds
Snow gums being decimated by native beetle infestation
While warmer periods can boost growth, it gives the beetles lots to chew on as soon as conditions dry.
"I have no doubt they'll still be there the next time severe drought emerges, and I would expect that we'd see another explosion.
"That's not a comforting thought, but at the very least, I think we have a year or two now to work through possible responses to it."
Action needed now
One of those responses is to trial planting lower sub-species of snow gums that are not currently affected by the insect into the ranges of the higher elevation sub-species.
Professor Brookhouse says it's hard to know why the lower sub-species of snow gums are not affected by the beetle, but it could be due to physiological differences.
Trees that live at higher elevations leave the stomata on their leaves open to capture as much CO2 as they can during the freezing winters.
This also means they may lose more water during summer, making them more vulnerable to attack.
"It's fair to say, though, that at this stage we don’t know, but we will begin working towards an answer with greenhouse trials later this year," Professor Brookhouse says.
The physiological difference between the sub-species may also make it harder to know whether low elevation species can survive above the snow line.
"But we're now at a point at which — and this might sound strange for a researcher to say — we can't to some extent wait for research outcomes to tell us which way to jump, we need to make some decisions now based upon what it looks like," Professor Brookhouse says.
Without doing so, he argues, the trees might not get an opportunity to move up higher to escape rising temperatures.
"At this point, the tree line is not going to get the chance [to move up], because it simply cannot move fast enough to outrun the insects that are on their way up."
ABC Science on YouTube
Want more science — plus health, environment, tech and more? Subscribe to our channel.
Read more
If the iconic snow gum disappears from an area, the landscape alters, and vital animal habitats are lost.
For people who have spent most of their lives in the mountains like Professor Brookhouse, these changes have a deep impact.
“When you have a strong connection to a place and it's altered ... part of your identity that's very much tied to your home and those places is lost in that moment,” he says.
Catalyst is exploring the extraordinary lives of eight of Australia's oldest, largest and most iconic trees — watch part one on ABC iview.
Part two, where an expert judging panel will select their favourite tree, airs at 8:30pm on Tuesday, August 23 on ABC TV and ABC iview.
Want more science from across the ABC?
I could not agree more that cutting down less and planting more trees are the the best thing we can do. It really pisses me off when vast swaths of forest in non windy or intermittently windy places are cleared for wind farms, then rarely turn. Also the bases for them are huge deep concrete slabs while we are informed cement/concrete is a major source of greenhouse gas. I presume that is from the chemical reaction.
There is no point planting trees on depleted aquifers though. You know 10km2 of trees are cleared in queersland daily?
Before you or anyone else jumps to the conclusion I don't believe in AGW, consider this. Before moving here in June 2013, I went and sussed out a 400 acre of bush property on the pristine Katherine River, in Nov 2012 that my mum owns. It would have cost me nothing. I didn't decide against it because of the 6m man-eaters in the river now that has caused banning of not only swimming but canoeing, but because of climate change. Where I bought instead was no man's land between the hostile Aboriginal tribes before white settlement because it was too cold and covered by glacier thousands of years ago. I don't know how that is reconciled with all the local history of aborigines raiding farms and setting fire to houses then spearing everyone who ran out. Tullochgorum is about 10km from here, and they say if you stay there overnight you hear screams from the same. Locals have families here since around 1860 and they say the aborigines gave just as good as they got in killing, but they never killed convicts, but fed and hid escapees come bushrangers. Numerous stories of the farmhouse and guard houses burnt and killed, but the convict cells left alone. Not only that, but freedmen who somehow lived out their sentence without being worked to death, or freezing to death and then built a tiny house and subsistence farmed on marginal land, also left alone. Their houses, huts really, still more or less stand.
Post by: RE on August 17, 2022, 06:41:02 pm
QuoteTo seed the clouds - you actually need clouds.
Does this mean global warming is worldwide?
(https://chasingthesquirrel.com/assets/php/images/1658778674philosoraptor.png)
i think global warming is more like country warming, depending on whether or not the country believes it is warming? And then you add up the believing countries, and the unbelieving countries, and divide those numbers by the total number of countries, whichever total is above 50% wins whether or not global warming is global or warming or not?
No, just look at the graph of the Ocean Heat Content.
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/59/Earth%27s_Heat_Accumulation.png/1200px-Earth%27s_Heat_Accumulation.png)
RE
Post by: FarmGirl on August 17, 2022, 02:06:07 pm
QuoteTo seed the clouds - you actually need clouds.
Does this mean global warming is worldwide?
(https://chasingthesquirrel.com/assets/php/images/1658778674philosoraptor.png)
i think global warming is more like country warming, depending on whether or not the country believes it is warming? And then you add up the believing countries, and the unbelieving countries, and divide those numbers by the total number of countries, whichever total is above 50% wins whether or not global warming is global or warming or not?
Post by: K-Dog on August 17, 2022, 12:19:57 pm
Quote
To seed the clouds - you actually need clouds.
Does this mean global warming is worldwide?
(https://chasingthesquirrel.com/assets/php/images/1658778674philosoraptor.png)
Post by: Digwe Must on August 17, 2022, 11:33:48 am
To seed the clouds - you actually need clouds.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-62573547
Post by: John of Wallan on August 16, 2022, 08:34:05 pm
One of our most beautiful trees is also threatened. I like DM comments: If we **** in the nest enough it must make a mess.
Trees are what we need more of. They sequester carbon, they help with salinity, they provide habitat to wildlife, they provide sustainable fuel for heating and building materials, they filter the air and they look nice.
I planted a snow gum on the manor grounds... About 4 foot tall now.
JOW
Link:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2022-08-17/snow-gums-drought-bushfires-beetles-affecting-aussie-icon/101314218
Text:
Drought, bushfires and beetles: The climate-related trifecta threatening Australia's iconic snow gums
ABC Science / By Genelle Weule
Posted 9h ago9 hours ago, updated 4h ago4 hours ago
snow gums
Snow gums are the only trees to survive above the snowline in Australia.(Getty Images: Richard l'Anson)
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Rainbow-coloured boughs bent by snow are a familiar sight in the Australian Alps in winter.
But there is nothing like sitting in the soft grass on the high plains under the dappled shade of an old snow gum on a beautiful summer's day, says James Camac.
"Out of all the eucalypt species in Australia, I think it is by far one of the most beautiful," says Dr Camac, an ecologist from the University of Melbourne.
snow gum on ridge
The snow gum is James Camac's favourite tree. What's yours?(Supplied: Tom Fairman)
"It's a gorgeous, gnarly looking eucalypt, particularly the really old ones in the landscape."
Make sure you vote in the search for Australia's favourite tree
Which tree will be crowned Australia's favourite? Go out on a limb and vote for your most loved species.
Two boab trees, which are bottle shaped cyclindrical trees with sprawling many branched small branches.
Read more
But those who know the high plains of the Australian Alps can see these views changing before their eyes.
Snow gums (Eucalyptus pauciflora) thrive in cooler, wetter conditions.
Australia's six sub-species of snow gums grow in isolated pockets of mountains from Victoria, to southern Queensland, as well as Tasmania.
While they can grow above the snowline, they can also be found as low as Bega on the south coast of New South Wales.
But as temperatures warm, these iconic trees are being threatened by drought, fire and disease.
Moving up the mountains
In the northern hemisphere, trees are moving to higher altitudes in mountain areas to beat rising temperatures, but there is very little wriggle room for snow gums in Australia.
"The challenge is they can't really go down the mountain, because they can't compete with the faster-growing, taller species that will overshadow them, and they've only got a relatively small range to be able to move up the mountain into more suitable conditions as the climate changes," Dr Camac says.
Snow gum with mountains and snow in background
Snow gums will run out of mountains to move up.(Getty images: Southern Lightscapes Australia)
So far, the tree line has barely changed in the mountains where snow gums grow, Dr Camac says.
"In some locations such as Mount Hotham, the tree line may have expanded over the course of a decade by between five and 10 metres, which is not actually keeping in line with the changing climate," he explains.
While marginal shifts in tree line are seen in areas that haven't been burnt by fire, warming temperatures also encourage plant growth in the heathland, making the high country more fire-prone.
"If we get more frequent fires caused by lightning strikes, there's going to be potentially fewer opportunities for snow gums to actually establish, particularly beyond the tree line," Dr Camac says.
Fire survival strategies
Fire damaged snow gums
Fire-damaged snow gums on Razorback Ridge in Victoria.(Getty Images: A B Robb)
Snow gums are better adapted to fire than some other mountain species like alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis), which only recovers from seed.
How the eucalypt took over our landscape
Eucalypts may look ancient, but they took over Australia in a surprisingly short period of time.
Eucalypt bushland
Read more
Even though fire takes out the crowns of snow gums, established trees can resprout from an underground lignotuber that stores carbohydrates.
"That's why you'll get these big, dead-looking trees, but you've got a massive resprout coming up from the base," Dr Camac says.
"Eventually the original stem or trunk will decay and fall away and be replaced by the new resprouts."
But, he says, as the frequency and intensity of fires roaring up from the foothills increases, older more iconic trees are less likely to survive.
"When people think of snow gums, they think of the 100-plus year-old giant individuals in the landscape, and if the fires go through and kill them, then basically you've just got these small, not particularly charismatic-looking individuals."
Dead snow gum trunks in snow
Regrowth of snow gums in Victoria after the 2009 bushfires.(Supplied: Tom Fairman)
It can take 30–40 years for the landscape to look the same as it once did if the trees are not burnt again in quick succession.
"People who go up now after Black Summer fires in Kosciuszko [National Park] will see what looks like all these dead trees, and they're going to have to get used to that for the next 30-plus years," Dr Camac says.
"I've had colleagues that have been working up there for the best part of 50 years and they were like 'I'll never see it as it was again'".
While the trees can bounce back in time after one fire, studies show they are less likely to resprout, and new seedlings are less likely to grow, after a second, and particularly a third fire.
Dr Carmac says the proportion of the Australian Alps that's burnt multiple times in 50 to 100 years is fairly small.
Fire damage to snow gums
Snow gums on the Dargo High Plains were destroyed by three fires in 10 years.(Supplied: Tom Fairman)
But some areas in the Victorian Alps, such as the Dargo High Plains, have had two to three fires in quick succession.
"I've been on sites that have burnt more than three times, and they are barren with erosion," he says.
Battling beetle infestations
To complete the trifecta, the trees face another threat in the form of a small, native beetle.
A large beetle walks across a person's hand.
A specimen of the native wood-boring longicorn beetle Phoracanthus.(ABC: Melissa Clarke)
The Phoracantha beetle has infested large tracts of snow gums living in high elevations above 1,600 metres, right across the Alps from Victoria to the ACT.
It is also affecting another species known as the weeping snow gum (Eucalyptus lacrimans), which only grows in a small area lower down the mountains near the town of Adaminaby in southern New South Wales.
Unlike the leaf-eating eucalyptus weevil killing ribbon gums (Eucalyptus viminalis) across the Monaro Plains on the eastern foothills of the Snowy Mountains, the wood-boring Phoracantha ring-barks its victims.
Death is slow. And no tree, no matter what age, is safe, says Matt Brookhouse of the Australian National University.
The gnarled trunk of a healthy old snow gum.
The gnarled trunk of a healthy old snow gum.(Supplied: Matthew Brookhouse)
The beetle starts by sucking the life out of the tree's crown. In response, the tree sends out more shoots beneath the dead area. But by the time the new shoots appear, the beetle is often ready and waiting to immediately cut off the new growth.
The cycle of death, resprouting, and death continues, but eventually the tree's carbohydrate reserve dries up.
"After a fire, even in the worst cases, you have trees sprouting from lignotubers," Professor Brookhouse says.
"After a tree has been the focus of a sustained wood borer infestation the capacity to regenerate is lost."
Markings and other damage on a tree trunk
The native wood-borer known as a longicorn beetle ring-barks snow gums from the top to the bottom. (ABC: Jess Davis)
While research is ongoing, Professor Brookhouse says the overwhelming evidence suggests these wood borers thrive when water in the atmosphere drops causing the bark to dry out.
"Much like a moat around a castle, it's that live wet tissue that surrounds the tree bowl that keeps it alive," he explains.
The tissue also keeps fungi and insects out and once that protection weakens, the tree's in real trouble, he adds.
More on the trees that make us:
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The final coup d'etat
So what happens when drought stress, beetles and fire are combined?
Fire can wipe out an emerging beetle infestation by killing the above-ground portion of the tree.
But if a tree has been under a sustained attack for several years, fire may be the final coup d'etat.
"We don't have enough monitoring data to conclude which way a fire is going to push an individual tree," Professor Brookhouse says.
A man with a beard operates a microscope over a cross-section of wood.
Matthew Brookhouse from the ANU is leading research into the longicorn beetle in the Australian Alps. (ABC: Melissa Clarke)
The wood-boring beetles also tend to infest trees that have recovered from bushfires years earlier.
"So fire itself may have a legacy effect that may encourage insect infestations."
And to complete the loop, by leaving dead trees standing, the beetles can contribute to fuel load.
"We have recently dated standing trees in Thredbo that were killed by Phoracantha in the early 1950s," Professor Brookhouse says.
"That was a very small outbreak … the outbreak we see now is well and truly beyond anything we've seen before."
The problem has become so bad along one of his favourite walks between Guthega and Illawong Hut in the Snowy Mountains, that all the trees have died.
"I think I could have swallowed it if it was a fire, but it's just catastrophic," he says.
"And it's not a matter of these trees are going to grow back — they're dead.
"The sight of that really broke me, it was just awful."
Snow gum dieback
Snow gum dieback on the walk between Guthega and Illawong Hut.(Supplied: Matthew Brookhouse)
The mountains have been wetter over the past couple of years, but it is likely to be only a temporary reprieve against beetle attack.
"The insects have a life span, we think, of at least three years so if we get three good wet years in a row, that will be immensely helpful," Professor Brookhouse says.
But, he says, dieback declined in wetter windows in the past such as 2010 and 2011, but then returned full force when conditions dried out again.
Space to play or pause, M to mute, left and right arrows to seek, up and down arrows for volume.
WATCH
Duration: 2 minutes 8 seconds2m 8s
Play Video. Duration: 2 minutes 8 seconds
Snow gums being decimated by native beetle infestation
While warmer periods can boost growth, it gives the beetles lots to chew on as soon as conditions dry.
"I have no doubt they'll still be there the next time severe drought emerges, and I would expect that we'd see another explosion.
"That's not a comforting thought, but at the very least, I think we have a year or two now to work through possible responses to it."
Action needed now
One of those responses is to trial planting lower sub-species of snow gums that are not currently affected by the insect into the ranges of the higher elevation sub-species.
Professor Brookhouse says it's hard to know why the lower sub-species of snow gums are not affected by the beetle, but it could be due to physiological differences.
Trees that live at higher elevations leave the stomata on their leaves open to capture as much CO2 as they can during the freezing winters.
This also means they may lose more water during summer, making them more vulnerable to attack.
"It's fair to say, though, that at this stage we don’t know, but we will begin working towards an answer with greenhouse trials later this year," Professor Brookhouse says.
The physiological difference between the sub-species may also make it harder to know whether low elevation species can survive above the snow line.
"But we're now at a point at which — and this might sound strange for a researcher to say — we can't to some extent wait for research outcomes to tell us which way to jump, we need to make some decisions now based upon what it looks like," Professor Brookhouse says.
Without doing so, he argues, the trees might not get an opportunity to move up higher to escape rising temperatures.
"At this point, the tree line is not going to get the chance [to move up], because it simply cannot move fast enough to outrun the insects that are on their way up."
ABC Science on YouTube
Want more science — plus health, environment, tech and more? Subscribe to our channel.
Read more
If the iconic snow gum disappears from an area, the landscape alters, and vital animal habitats are lost.
For people who have spent most of their lives in the mountains like Professor Brookhouse, these changes have a deep impact.
“When you have a strong connection to a place and it's altered ... part of your identity that's very much tied to your home and those places is lost in that moment,” he says.
Catalyst is exploring the extraordinary lives of eight of Australia's oldest, largest and most iconic trees — watch part one on ABC iview.
Part two, where an expert judging panel will select their favourite tree, airs at 8:30pm on Tuesday, August 23 on ABC TV and ABC iview.
Want more science from across the ABC?
Post by: John of Wallan on August 16, 2022, 08:20:53 pm
Good for my trees, but probably adding to dry West Coast of Oz and Merika.
JOW
Link:
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/weather/wet-summer-more-likely-as-la-nina-strengthens-again-20220816-p5babw.html
Text:
Wet summer more likely as La Nina strengthens again
Laura Chung
By Laura Chung
August 17, 2022 — 5.00am
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The east coast of Australia is likely to have another wet summer after the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) upgraded the likelihood of a La Nina occurring.
The new alert status means there is a 70 per cent chance of a La Nina, much higher than the previous 50 per cent likelihood that has lingered for months.
There is a 70 per cent possibility of a La Nina event occurring this summer.
There is a 70 per cent possibility of a La Nina event occurring this summer.CREDIT:KATE GERAGHTY
The status change follows a renewal of cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean towards La Nina thresholds over recent weeks, as well as strengthened trade winds at La Nina levels.
Australia has experienced 19 La Nina events since 1900 and 12 have coincided with flooding in eastern states. The average rainfall from December to March in La Nina years is 20 per cent higher than the long-term average.
BoM meteorologist Hugh McDowell said the last time Australia experienced three consecutive La Nina events was in 1998 to 2001. Since records began, this has happened in Australia only three times.
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“We are more confident a La Nina could develop,” he said. “It is very rare [for three to occur back-to-back].”
But the following year, the country has always been scorched by an El Nino event. This pattern could be possible next year.
“It is pretty rare, it does seem to be roughly in a 20-year cycle, but we’re not sure if that is just chance or there is something more in that.”
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The world’s oceans are absorbing most of the heat emitted globally. During La Nina years, the ocean absorbs more heat. There are three phases of the ENSO pattern, as conditions seesaw between El Nino and La Nina and the neutral stage in between.
While La Nina causes warmer than average sea temperatures off Australia’s coast which drive storms, it cools down ocean temperatures in the northern hemisphere which creates drier onshore weather.
Australia’s wet weather will linger throughout late winter and spring after a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was declared earlier this month. If a La Nina does occur, it would be the first time on record that we have seen three consecutive La Nina events coinciding with back-to-back negative IOD events.
When the Indian Ocean is cooler than average on the western side, and warmer than average on the eastern side, it causes more moisture-laden air to flow to Australia and fuels the north-west cloud bands that develop over north-western Australia, extending to the south-east of the continent.
It also brings a high chance of above-average rainfall over large areas of Australia in late winter and spring.
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This is the second negative IOD in a row, with the same weather pattern occurring last year. This is only the second time a negative IOD has occurred back-to-back since reliable records began in 1960.
University of Melbourne climate scientist Andrew King said there were not enough long-term records to be able to say if climate change was a factor in a possible third La Nina event. But he said climate projections show these types of events could become more intense or frequent as climate change worsens.
“Climate change is having big effects in terms of heatwaves and things like that, but in terms of rainfall variability and La Nina and El Nino, it is harder to see the climate change element at the moment,” he said. “We need to see these things that occur every few years and we need to have long-term record observations to build a pattern and we don’t have that yet.”
NSW SES Commissioner Carlene York said water systems and saturated soils would exacerbate flooding risks. She urged people to prepare emergency evacuation kits now.
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The possibility of a third La Nina event is the last thing many flood-affected residents across Australia will want to hear. It comes as those in NSW wait for the government to release the much anticipated independent flood inquiry which will recommend a partial merger of the State Emergency Service and NSW Rural Fire Service.
The partial merger would see the RFS and SES combine their back-of-house functions, although each agency will retain its core purpose of responding to floods or bushfires. The report will also recommend that any flood operations be managed from RFS headquarters rather than the SES’ Wollongong base.
The independent report will recommend that Resilience NSW boss Shane Fitzsimmons be dumped and the disaster management and response agency dramatically scaled down. It will also suggest a new deputy police commissioner be appointed to emergency and disaster management.
The report is likely to be released in the coming days.
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Post by: Digwe Must on August 16, 2022, 03:59:27 pm
I "enjoyed" this article as it gives a glimpse into the past. Worst drought in 500 years...
https://www.sciencealert.com/hidden-hunger-stones-reveal-drought-warnings-from-the-past
We don't have anything as cool as these stones. We have corpses in the dried mud flats that used to be Lake Mead.
Post by: FarmGirl on August 16, 2022, 03:24:08 pm
Quote from: Phil PottsSo try keeping up and dealing with what I'm saying instead of wasting time with the unspecified science of whatnot and stuff. The equation is in your own reference.
I see. How about we deal with the science refuting the science, and ask the obvious question as to why you haven't found any yet? Unspecified science and whatnot... indeed. You understand it is suspicious, the enthusiasm you employ to avoid the science involved? Good luck with that, and have a good day.
Oh so now u want to talk about theology and temporal phenomena.
Ahhhh....no. But I think I've learned the lesson you are attempting to teach here. Good luck with theology and whatnot proving science isn't science, or whatever, and you sir have a nice day.
Post by: Nearings fault on August 16, 2022, 07:22:23 am
https://www.sciencealert.com/hidden-hunger-stones-reveal-drought-warnings-from-the-past
Post by: Phil Potts on August 16, 2022, 01:09:48 am
Quote from: Phil PottsSo try keeping up and dealing with what I'm saying instead of wasting time with the unspecified science of whatnot and stuff. The equation is in your own reference.
I see. How about we deal with the science refuting the science, and ask the obvious question as to why you haven't found any yet? Unspecified science and whatnot... indeed. You understand it is suspicious, the enthusiasm you employ to avoid the science involved? Good luck with that, and have a good day.
Oh so now u want to talk about theology and temporal phenomena. why do you deny ponerology and that there are smaller and larger units of time than days? The library can teach you how a clock works to keep time and encyclopaedia for how calendars are based on observation of length of days and seasons. Do you think there are no bad days and they are 25 hrs long? Come on where's your reference to the science refuting the science?
Doing this all the time would not just make me look stupid but genuinely make me stupider by the hour, as I would be carving a habitual neural pathway of nonsense. I would get to feel superior to imagined flat earthers though.
I've explained several times that you yourself provided the science refuting the science because Foote and Tyndall that you referenced theory is incompatible with your own. Nothing else specifically has been called into question, so "the (unspecified again) science" is meaningless.
I've explained several times that I can allow you to both be correct, but would appear then that the rule energy is never lost but just changes form is broken. I've also provided a possible explanation for Mrs Foote being wrong that CO2 is heated directly by the Sun, while her CO2 was not heated by anything except sunlight.
I've done the math on the tonnage of all oil, gas and coal burnt each day and the area in Km2 each barrel, M3 and tonne heats. Given that earth is 2/3 covered by cloud that we can observe does trap heat, by virtue of clear nights getting colder than overcast ones, I believe given that breakdown, over a hundred years we could slightly raise the temperature.
If we are going to attribute the same temp rise of say 1c over a century to CO2 instead, then we need to know how much hotter than other molecules in air it gets, and for how long. If there is less than one in two thousand CO2 molecules now, even less in past decades it seems to me that the CO2 must get extremely hot and stay hot for several hours to have an effect. This is my question for that reason; regardless of whether it is heated by the sun, radiated heat from Earth, or both, how much hotter than oxygen does CO2 get and how long does it stay hot.
If we can't know that, we can look at daytime vs overnight temps where there is no smog or cloud and very low humidity, with still dry air, such as typical summer days in the desert. We can look for days with still and dry conditions a hundred years ago with a maximum temp of say 40c and see what the overnight low was. Take a sample of say a hundred such days. They don't need to all be 40, but compare every 39 or 38 from the 1920s with the corresponding 40, 39 and 38 days from the 2020s.
If the concentration of CO2 we have now traps enough heat to raise temp, it should be evident by that comparison. There should be an average overnight low that is at least 1c higher for the same daytime max, now than the 1920s.
Post by: Digwe Must on August 15, 2022, 04:50:34 pm
As we no longer have fertilizer to grow that fresh produce, this is good news. Not only will the depleted ogallala be replenished, but the alluvial flood plains will become fertile again. It happens with the kind of flows that carve valleys during interglacial eras, not seen since noah, part also of every civilization folklore. Civilization that lived to tell their deluge myths. When it IS totally safe to build by the river or beach, soils in places like northern Europe are getting the minerals we had in the soil and need in our diet by process of glaciers grinding boulders.
These are the only options for agriculture and farming left, depend on either extreme of the glacial and interglacial to give us fertile soil, without reliance on fossil fuel gas. Manure and compost cause nitrogen, far worse than CO2. Does the MSM report on the Dutch farmers and their supporters mass protests? The good news is western govts are even paying farmers not to plant.
I've been following this discussion with interest. However, I've been too busy to contribute - wearing myself out in the heat, trying to prepare to fight wildfire here, (hopefully just a precaution without a corresponding crisis) keep the trees and soil alive in rapidly changing stressful conditions, (minimal success - the future is upon us) putting food away in a VERY challenging year, and getting in winter feed. In a day or two I need to begin getting in firewood. One dangerous old fart with a chainsaw and a glint in his eye.
At the moment, it is just too hot for me to drag my aging ass outside.
Unfortunately, I detect in this discussion some of the same vibe as occurred during our discussions on the vaccines. The term "denier" is being thrown about with the same vigor as "anti-vaxxer" was used against those who questioned the official version of events and facts surrounding C-19. There is a similar attitude of exasperation deployed against those who question conventional wisdom regarding climate science.
I do not have the knowledge to take a stand on the chemistry of CO2. As a person who has done no lab work on his own, I tend to look toward those who have done the lab work for insight. Of course, an overwhelming majority of climate scientists equate the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere with global temperature rise. I think several grains of salt and a shot of tequila are appropriate - but that is the general consensus.
In this part of the world there has been a decades-long trend toward warmer and drier. We are losing vast swaths of forest to intense fire, insects and disease. Wetlands disappear, causing loss of species and habitat. Species of trees, shrubs, grasses, birds, insects and mammals blink out. Far more records for high temps, days without precip, higher minimum temps and wildfire than there are for lows. Precipitation can, of course, come in buckets when it does show up - but it is down overall.
I mentioned before that we are losing one of our major and most valuable tree species, western larch, to the intense heat of last summer. They were already weakened by insect, parasite and disease because the winter temperatures no longer get cold enough, long enough to kill off the pathogens and bugs. I tried to fend off the inevitable by thinning out competition and saving the oldest, (many over 100yrs) best trees for regeneration. These trees had all the advantages we could give them but the heat has nailed them. On top of last year's intense heat and drought, we haven't had any precip at all since the 4th of July. I don't think 50% of these trees will be alive in a year. The cedar is also stressed. It gets too hot now. This landscape is changing forever. The pace of this change is far greater than natural phytomigration of trees and plants or migration of wildlife can keep up with. Not even close.
For me, it is obvious that you can't cut down 70% of the world's forests, acidify, pollute and fish out the oceans, dump god knows how much poison in the water and atmosphere and exploit every resource beyond need or reason without raising hell with the climate. But I am sure no expert on the science. I'm just watching the trees die.
Having said that, I trust the IPCC about as far as I trust the WHO, NIH, and CDC. Just as those agencies operate on a big-pharma agenda, the IPCC is in bed with some of the largest polluters on the planet. They pay very little attention to solar cycles and output and will not support funding research in that area.
The fact that solar cycles, of various duration, have an effect on climate really seems obvious to me - but I don't have credentials. The magnetic field around the planet is weakening. The magnetic poles are moving and that move is accelerating. I don't believe that is open to debate - it's measured by people who do have credentials. It is also accepted that the magnetic field has influence on the migratory habits of numerous species of birds, bats, insects and more. Since the weaker magnetic field allows more radiation of various types to reach the surface of the earth and penetrate deeply, it makes sense to me that this also has an impact on climate.
The accepted science in several fields is undergoing... challenge. For a long time it was accepted that human migration took place to the Americas over a land bridge from Siberia 12,000 years ago. Now it turns out that archeology has identified human habitation in the Americas about 37,000 years ago. Studies show SE Asian and Australian DNA in South American native populations - but not in North American natives. There is some DNA shared between native North American populations on the Atlantic coast and Europeans - but not S.Americans - from a long time ago.
Serious doubt has been cast on the "Out of Africa" theory of human origin - again through DNA research that traces Neandertal DNA through various populations.
The accepted science can change- perhaps very slowly - but it eventually will come to the conclusion that the earth is round. Meantime, crops are down, heat is up and the weirdness increases exponentially.
The trend is clear. So far, the climate is generally drying and warming and the pace is accelerating. Where this leads is not good. Whether you "believe" it is CO2, other gasses, HAARP, the sun, the moon or the lizard people from the Andromeda cluster, the weather continues to get more extreme. It's not just a year or two of anomalies. I would suggest that until and unless
the built in governor that will keep climate change RPM below critical levels reveals itself and kicks in, we need to be thinking of what we are personally going to do about it.
Post by: FarmGirl on August 15, 2022, 04:01:45 pm
Quote from: Phil Potts
So try keeping up and dealing with what I'm saying instead of wasting time with the unspecified science of whatnot and stuff. The equation is in your own reference.
I see. How about we deal with the science refuting the science, and ask the obvious question as to why you haven't found any yet? Unspecified science and whatnot... indeed. You understand it is suspicious, the enthusiasm you employ to avoid the science involved? Good luck with that, and have a good day.
Post by: Phil Potts on August 15, 2022, 12:23:19 am
https://www.kcra.com/article/megaflood-california-most-expensive-natural-disaster/40888657#
A disastrous megaflood is coming to California, experts say, and it could be the most expensive natural disaster in history
As we no longer have fertilizer to grow that fresh produce, this is good news. Not only will the depleted ogallala be replenished, but the alluvial flood plains will become fertile again. It happens with the kind of flows that carve valleys during interglacial eras, not seen since noah, part also of every civilization folklore. Civilization that lived to tell their deluge myths. When it IS totally safe to build by the river or beach, soils in places like northern Europe are getting the minerals we had in the soil and need in our diet by process of glaciers grinding boulders.
These are the only options for agriculture and farming left, depend on either extreme of the glacial and interglacial to give us fertile soil, without reliance on fossil fuel gas. Manure and compost cause nitrogen, far worse than CO2. Does the MSM report on the Dutch farmers and their supporters mass protests? The good news is western govts are even paying farmers not to plant.
Post by: Phil Potts on August 14, 2022, 07:15:23 pm
One of my post has disappeared. I again raised the question of how longI'm going to hellCO2 stays hot and at what temp and in what concentration in air. This obviously matters.
So now you want to discuss general thermodynamics? I'll bet K-Dog can do that far better than I, I would do what most anyone would, google it up and dive in. The internet is great for stuff, you can get textbooks to read and explanations of particulars on things and all sorts of stuff on heat transfer and whatnot. I know that heat/energy moves from hotter/more energetic stuff to cooler stuff when given a chance. Is this in dispute somewhere?
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040422164616-5368.jpeg) Farmgirl, What you said is logical but let me hazard some tips about the CO2 "controversy" that will shut anybody's mouth (though deniers are always looking for ways around it) who has the unscientific temerity to claim that CO2 "doesn't heat the atmosphere".
Getting into the weeds of the tri-atomic gas molecules and their IR absorbing frequencies is valid, but too many people don't want to go there and start hemming and hawing with baloney based distractions pretending to be "debate". When I am faced with such irrational intransigence, I just point out that there is an instrument out there that anybody can buy. It's called a CO2 meter/smoke detector. It's used, as you know, to warn you that their might be a fire in your house. The way it works is just plain tri-atomic CO2 Infrared (i.e. HEAT (https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Frenewablerevolution.createaforum.com%2Fgallery%2Frenewablerevolution%2F3-130418201112.png&hash=679f4583d6861313c256e8762c40929af1ac667e)) absobing Frequencies SCIENCE. Anyone that wants to argue that is making a fool of themselves.
Also, deniers hate pictures of reality; it ruins their whole day.(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-140822180920-19101495.jpeg)(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-140822180603-18901594.jpeg)
Is any of that relevant or inconsistent with anything I have said agb?
Since you are using the language of religion, not science, what did I deny before you go off half cocked and the **** (rooster) crows thrice
Post by: Phil Potts on August 14, 2022, 07:10:18 pm
One of my post has disappeared. I again raised the question of how longI'm going to hellCO2 stays hot and at what temp and in what concentration in air. This obviously matters.
So now you want to discuss general thermodynamics? I'll bet K-Dog can do that far better than I, I would do what most anyone would, google it up and dive in. The internet is great for stuff, you can get textbooks to read and explanations of particulars on things and all sorts of stuff on heat transfer and whatnot. I know that heat/energy moves from hotter/more energetic stuff to cooler stuff when given a chance. Is this in dispute somewhere?
If I ask how long it stays hot, it is obvious I do not assume permanently. So try keeping up and dealing with what I'm saying instead of wasting time with the unspecified science of whatnot and stuff. The equation is in your own reference.
Post by: AGelbert on August 14, 2022, 03:18:11 pm
One of my post has disappeared. I again raised the question of how longI'm going to hellCO2 stays hot and at what temp and in what concentration in air. This obviously matters.
So now you want to discuss general thermodynamics? I'll bet K-Dog can do that far better than I, I would do what most anyone would, google it up and dive in. The internet is great for stuff, you can get textbooks to read and explanations of particulars on things and all sorts of stuff on heat transfer and whatnot. I know that heat/energy moves from hotter/more energetic stuff to cooler stuff when given a chance. Is this in dispute somewhere?
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040422164616-5368.jpeg) Farmgirl, What you said is logical but let me hazard some tips about the CO2 "controversy" that will shut anybody's mouth (though deniers are always looking for ways around it) who has the unscientific temerity to claim that CO2 "doesn't heat the atmosphere".
Getting into the weeds of the tri-atomic gas molecules and their IR absorbing frequencies is valid, but too many people don't want to go there and start hemming and hawing with baloney based distractions pretending to be "debate". When I am faced with such irrational intransigence, I just point out that there is an instrument out there that anybody can buy. It's called a CO2 meter/smoke detector. It's used, as you know, to warn you that their might be a fire in your house. The way it works is just plain tri-atomic CO2 Infrared (i.e. HEAT (https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Frenewablerevolution.createaforum.com%2Fgallery%2Frenewablerevolution%2F3-130418201112.png&hash=679f4583d6861313c256e8762c40929af1ac667e)) absobing Frequencies SCIENCE. Anyone that wants to argue that is making a fool of themselves.
Also, deniers hate pictures of reality; it ruins their whole day.
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-140822180920-19101495.jpeg)
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-140822180603-18901594.jpeg)
Post by: FarmGirl on August 14, 2022, 01:21:43 pm
One of my post has disappeared. I again raised the question of how longI'm going to hellCO2 stays hot and at what temp and in what concentration in air. This obviously matters.
So now you want to discuss general thermodynamics? I'll bet K-Dog can do that far better than I, I would do what most anyone would, google it up and dive in. The internet is great for stuff, you can get textbooks to read and explanations of particulars on things and all sorts of stuff on heat transfer and whatnot. I know that heat/energy moves from hotter/more energetic stuff to cooler stuff when given a chance. Is this in dispute somewhere?
Post by: AGelbert on August 14, 2022, 11:56:43 am
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-280322140406.jpeg)
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-140822145418.jpeg)
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-140822145501.jpeg)
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-140822145612.jpeg)
AGelbert NOTE: Some lyrics from an old song come to mind...
When Tomorrow is Today, the Bells Will Toll for Some, But Nothing Can Stop the Shape of Things to Come.
And no, this is not "alarmist" graphics hyperbole. Learn about about the GIANT 🌊 Wave activity that Climate Scientists predict is inevitable in our 2 degree Celcius, or more, Catastrophic Climate Changed world. (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-040422164555-532108.png)
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-210622211338-14551900.png)(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-240622154845.jpeg)
👉 Climate Change, Blue Water Cargo Shipping and Predicted Ocean Wave Activity: PART 1 of 3 (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/catastrophic-climate-change/future-earth/msg373/#msg373)
👉 Climate Change, Blue Water Cargo Shipping and Predicted Ocean Wave Activity: PART TWO (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/catastrophic-climate-change/future-earth/msg374/#msg374)
👉 Climate Change, Blue Water Cargo Shipping and Predicted Ocean Wave Activity: Part 3 of 3 parts (https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/catastrophic-climate-change/future-earth/msg375/#msg375)
Or, you can ignore all this "Chinese Hoax alarmist" stuff and continue your excellent imitation of an Ostrich...
(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-250422171053-1107280.png)(https://soberthinking.createaforum.com/gallery/soberthinking/1-250422164151-10611570.jpeg)
Post by: RE on August 14, 2022, 12:48:16 am
A disastrous megaflood is coming to California, experts say, and it could be the most expensive natural disaster in history
Post by: Phil Potts on August 13, 2022, 02:37:26 pm
Quote from: Phil PottsFoote described a one way incoming valve. You propose a one way outgoing valve.
I propose nothing. I reference the science involved. K-dog described it well. Let us know when the experimental evidence suddenly comes in that indicates CO2 isn't a green house gas.
Quote from: Phil Potts
If memory serves, you described the suns energy as zipping past CO2 on the way in. Foote says that is not the case, she warned up her CO2 with incoming sunlight.
My inexact language notwithstanding, how about you just read what K-Dog wrote, it was far better than my non-scientific explanation. i've referenced more than enough on how frequency differences designate where in the EM band this radiation exists, and the science behind molecules reacting differently to the different frequencies of electro magnetic radiation.
Do you have a reference proving EM radiation to be incorrect, empirical evidence disproving any of the concepts of EM radiation or the physics description of how molecules react to changes in energy states by K-Dog being incorrect?
Just one itsy bitsy reference? There is bound to be one, just as there is one for the remaining Flat Earthers, and then we can check it and see how well it dispatches the theory since proven and applied to everything from your TV remote to laser linked communications and whatnot.
[/quote]
All irrelevant, like asking me for proof God does not exist when I'm trying to deal with the question of whether He will send me to hell for not converting to Christianity. "The theory" or relevant part is not a single one. Yours and KD is contradictory to the 19th C theory of Mrs Foote and Mr Tyndall. You are like a clergyman saying "how about you just read the Bible". Of course I've already read KD explanation and he has now provided a diagram, ruling out any doubt that from his perspective Mrs Foote's finding which you somehow simultaneously hold to be true, should not exist.
There may be an explanation, her glass jar was necessary to absorb the sun's energy and convert it to heat which then was transferred to the CO2 in the jar via IR. No jar, no heating of the CO2.
One of my post has disappeared. I again raised the question of how long
Post by: Phil Potts on August 13, 2022, 01:37:53 pm
This is long and from 2006, but if apolitical assessment and fearless fact finding are worth anything, is well worth reading:
http://fs2.american.edu/rossiter/www/Convenient%20Fibs.html
It certainly was a take down of Al Gore. And was long. And didn't for a nanosecond discredit any of the underlying physics and whatnot. Was it supposed to, or was it what it appeared, a logical argument aimed at a person. Sort of like, the Church aiming its ire at Galileo?
That's fine if Galileo had said Jesus was returning in 2013 and the church in 2006 said this may not happen. Youve had your own road to Damascus moment, but in 2022 we are still waiting. It isn't heretic sorcery of the devil to start with a clean sheet on why.
Post by: FarmGirl on August 13, 2022, 08:10:06 am
This is long and from 2006, but if apolitical assessment and fearless fact finding are worth anything, is well worth reading:
http://fs2.american.edu/rossiter/www/Convenient%20Fibs.html
It certainly was a take down of Al Gore. And was long. And didn't for a nanosecond discredit any of the underlying physics and whatnot. Was it supposed to, or was it what it appeared, a logical argument aimed at a person. Sort of like, the Church aiming its ire at Galileo?
Post by: FarmGirl on August 13, 2022, 08:06:41 am
Quote from: Phil Potts
Foote described a one way incoming valve. You propose a one way outgoing valve.
I propose nothing. I reference the science involved. K-dog described it well. Let us know when the experimental evidence suddenly comes in that indicates CO2 isn't a green house gas.
[/quote]
Quote from: Phil Potts
If memory serves, you described the suns energy as zipping past CO2 on the way in. Foote says that is not the case, she warned up her CO2 with incoming sunlight.
My inexact language notwithstanding, how about you just read what K-Dog wrote, it was far better than my non-scientific explanation. i've referenced more than enough on how frequency differences designate where in the EM band this radiation exists, and the science behind molecules reacting differently to the different frequencies of electro magnetic radiation.
Do you have a reference proving EM radiation to be incorrect, empirical evidence disproving any of the concepts of EM radiation or the physics description of how molecules react to changes in energy states by K-Dog being incorrect?
Just one itsy bitsy reference? There is bound to be one, just as there is one for the remaining Flat Earthers, and then we can check it and see how well it dispatches the theory since proven and applied to everything from your TV remote to laser linked communications and whatnot.
Post by: K-Dog on August 13, 2022, 05:15:33 am
So why are you presenting the 19th C theory on CO2 as right, based on its age if your own later alternative theory has disproven it?
19th century was an experiment, and the discovery, application and science of EM radiation explained why the experiment worked. There is nothing disproven here.
Did you read what K-dog wrote, witih his description of the the vibrating electrons and increasing frequencies and whatnot? That was a good explanation, and you can find all the physics you'd like on the topic.
How about this, post the scientific rebuttal to CO2 being a greenhouse gas. Not religious or deductive polly-wolly-bing-bong words, just round up the experiment or published science that proves the physics doesn't work as K-dog describes.
Do that, and we'll have to put CO2 as a greenhouse gas back in the "don't know yet" column, and maybe the reference you find is already on its way to a Nobel Prize in physics or something.Quote from: Phil PottsFoote described a one way incoming valve. You propose a one way outgoing valve.
I propose nothing. I reference the science involved. K-dog described it well. Let us know when the experimental evidence suddenly comes in that indicates CO2 isn't a green house gas.
If memory serves, you described the suns energy as zipping past CO2 on the way in. Foote says that is not the case, she warned up her CO2 with incoming sunlight.
You referenced the science of Foote and Tyndall several times, your own explanation or hypothesis if you object to "propose" is :
and CO2 allows the visible light energy to pass through, go zipping on by. And then that light hits stuff on the surface...and that stuff warms from the light....and emits more IR...and then the radiating IR blasts off the surface and radiates skyward and hits the atmospheric CO2 while trying to escape back into space and now the CO2 stops some of it as it tries to leave. More CO2, more stopping the emitted IR. Greenhouse effect, and no need for a solid in the least. Just miles of atmosphere with some CO2 in it.
So we are right back to square 1 in my question on whether CO2 acts like a greenhouse gas the same way water does, or whether both yourself and KD, as well as the 19thC scientists are correct, so CO2 is a double dipping twofer that makes null the rule that energy is never lost, but just changes forms. Again, if so, the length of time it both absorbs heat from the sun as well as allowing full strength of the sun on the Earth's surface (unlike the greenhouse gas water vapour) is the independent variable. For how long and at what temperature does CO2 stay hot and does the density change that? How long will it stay hot at say 500 ppm (1/2000th of the atmosphere).
Not exactly square one. And nobody here is trying to confuse. Mainstream news science however, does exactly that. As intended.
(https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fpressbooks-dev.oer.hawaii.edu%2Fatmo%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fsites%2F74%2F2018%2F06%2Fglobal_energy_budget_components.png&hash=5d9af73bb2fecda82ee81efab4af2ae39f7f5e8a)
An aspect to consider is that the infrared radiation is actually invisible light in a very wide range of frequencies. The lowest frequencies of infrared are not absorbed in the same way higher frequencies of infrared are. The point is infrared from the sun coming in is not exactly like infrared going out. The lines in the diagram i show are crisp and well defined. Reality is more fuzzy.
This confusing picture breaks down how solar radiation is absorbed by the earth and atmosphere.
Note: Clouds play a big role and not knowing how future cloud cover works out on out changed earth, the confusion is taken advantage of.
It works like this. Consider the ****:
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.u5CVQ6pNuKyz8HvJnVM3GQHaLG%26pid%3DApi&f=1)
She lies her ass off in court about Johnny Depp. She can't lie so convincingly that you believe her but her lies even, those not believed, affect you. The lies generate just enough doubt so the truth is questioned and sometimes that creates just enough uncertainty to keep people inactive. It wasn't enough for Amber to win in court, but that kind of uncertainty lets oil get pumped without clear criticism. Enough doubt to quiet the sheep down.
Here is where I got the pic.
http://pressbooks-dev.oer.hawaii.edu/atmo/chapter/chapter-2-solar-and-infrared-radiation/
Post by: Phil Potts on August 12, 2022, 11:24:04 pm
http://fs2.american.edu/rossiter/www/Convenient%20Fibs.html
Post by: Phil Potts on August 12, 2022, 10:40:27 pm
So why are you presenting the 19th C theory on CO2 as right, based on its age if your own later alternative theory has disproven it?
19th century was an experiment, and the discovery, application and science of EM radiation explained why the experiment worked. There is nothing disproven here.
Did you read what K-dog wrote, witih his description of the the vibrating electrons and increasing frequencies and whatnot? That was a good explanation, and you can find all the physics you'd like on the topic.
How about this, post the scientific rebuttal to CO2 being a greenhouse gas. Not religious or deductive polly-wolly-bing-bong words, just round up the experiment or published science that proves the physics doesn't work as K-dog describes.
Do that, and we'll have to put CO2 as a greenhouse gas back in the "don't know yet" column, and maybe the reference you find is already on its way to a Nobel Prize in physics or something.Quote from: Phil PottsFoote described a one way incoming valve. You propose a one way outgoing valve.
I propose nothing. I reference the science involved. K-dog described it well. Let us know when the experimental evidence suddenly comes in that indicates CO2 isn't a green house gas.
If memory serves, you described the suns energy as zipping past CO2 on the way in. Foote says that is not the case, she warned up her CO2 with incoming sunlight.
You referenced the science of Foote and Tyndall several times, your own explanation or hypothesis if you object to "propose" is :
and CO2 allows the visible light energy to pass through, go zipping on by. And then that light hits stuff on the surface...and that stuff warms from the light....and emits more IR...and then the radiating IR blasts off the surface and radiates skyward and hits the atmospheric CO2 while trying to escape back into space and now the CO2 stops some of it as it tries to leave. More CO2, more stopping the emitted IR. Greenhouse effect, and no need for a solid in the least. Just miles of atmosphere with some CO2 in it.
So we are right back to square 1 in my question on whether CO2 acts like a greenhouse gas the same way water does, or whether both yourself and KD, as well as the 19thC scientists are correct, so CO2 is a double dipping twofer that makes null the rule that energy is never lost, but just changes forms. Again, if so, the length of time it both absorbs heat from the sun as well as allowing full strength of the sun on the Earth's surface (unlike the greenhouse gas water vapour) is the independent variable. For how long and at what temperature does CO2 stay hot and does the density change that? How long will it stay hot at say 500 ppm (1/2000th of the atmosphere).
Post by: FarmGirl on August 12, 2022, 07:25:33 pm
So why are you presenting the 19th C theory on CO2 as right, based on its age if your own later alternative theory has disproven it?
19th century was an experiment, and the discovery, application and science of EM radiation explained why the experiment worked. There is nothing disproven here.
Did you read what K-dog wrote, witih his description of the the vibrating electrons and increasing frequencies and whatnot? That was a good explanation, and you can find all the physics you'd like on the topic.
How about this, post the scientific rebuttal to CO2 being a greenhouse gas. Not religious or deductive polly-wolly-bing-bong words, just round up the experiment or published science that proves the physics doesn't work as K-dog describes.
Do that, and we'll have to put CO2 as a greenhouse gas back in the "don't know yet" column, and maybe the reference you find is already on its way to a Nobel Prize in physics or something.
Quote from: Phil Potts
Foote described a one way incoming valve. You propose a one way outgoing valve.
I propose nothing. I reference the science involved. K-dog described it well. Let us know when the experimental evidence suddenly comes in that indicates CO2 isn't a green house gas.
Post by: Phil Potts on August 12, 2022, 05:39:42 pm
If so, then the question of whether CO2 blocks more heat from the sun than it traps, is resolved.
I deductively reason that the physics of it have been known and proven longer than any of us have been alive. Therefore, I deductively reason that the question is resolved.
Thats faith based reasoning.
Is it? Well...if the shoe fits....okay....
I've always figured that science explains most things about the physical properties of the universe. The beauty of science being that it is always subject to being disproven. Not claimed to be disproven, but disproven. Get a lab, beam around some energy into some CO2 or other things, and disprove the EM radiation and frequency band entirely. If you can.
WHEN you can, then folks can take sides around these opposing views.
But faith based or deductive is irrelevant when it comes to physics. Don't think the speed of light is what is claimed? Disprove it, win a Nobel Prize, be a hero. You have to love a system that celebrates being proven wrong because...them scientist types....they seem to know stuff.Quote from: Phil PottsIf it has been known for longer that the earth is flat, does that make any relatively new reason it is round wrong?
The earth has been CLAIMED to be flat. Claiming is not proving. But one day, someone sailed a ship out into the ocean...and someone noticed...hey...why is the ship getting shorter the farther away it gets? With the bottom disappearing first?
People being uninformed prior to scientific facts becoming available is understandable. People being uninformed after the scientific facts are revealed is....a choice...?
So why are you presenting the 19th C theory on CO2 as right, based on its age if your own later alternative theory has disproven it? Foote described a one way incoming valve. You propose a one way outgoing valve. I can't see why CO2 would discriminate, so both are not correct. Having got that far, the implications are going to depend on time length of the effect.
If ancient man took a skull or coconut shell and poured water on top of it, the water would not cling to the side and bottom of the spherical object. The most logical explanation for the observation of ship sailing into the horizon would have been the ship sinking, not water somehow defying gravity by clinging to the sides of a sphere. If the ship returned, especially if it returned from the opposite direction, only then you might have reason to suspect the ship was not sinking, so ocean water in the ocean behaves differently than any other water. That is even if you suspected the earth was spherical like a coconut shell or skull, something astrologers and astronomers believed thousands of years ago.
Post by: FarmGirl on August 12, 2022, 03:34:16 pm
If so, then the question of whether CO2 blocks more heat from the sun than it traps, is resolved.
I deductively reason that the physics of it have been known and proven longer than any of us have been alive. Therefore, I deductively reason that the question is resolved.
Thats faith based reasoning.
Is it? Well...if the shoe fits....okay....
I've always figured that science explains most things about the physical properties of the universe. The beauty of science being that it is always subject to being disproven. Not claimed to be disproven, but disproven. Get a lab, beam around some energy into some CO2 or other things, and disprove the EM radiation and frequency band entirely. If you can.
WHEN you can, then folks can take sides around these opposing views.
But faith based or deductive is irrelevant when it comes to physics. Don't think the speed of light is what is claimed? Disprove it, win a Nobel Prize, be a hero. You have to love a system that celebrates being proven wrong because...them scientist types....they seem to know stuff.
Quote from: Phil Potts
If it has been known for longer that the earth is flat, does that make any relatively new reason it is round wrong?
The earth has been CLAIMED to be flat. Claiming is not proving. But one day, someone sailed a ship out into the ocean...and someone noticed...hey...why is the ship getting shorter the farther away it gets? With the bottom disappearing first?
People being uninformed prior to scientific facts becoming available is understandable. People being uninformed after the scientific facts are revealed is....a choice...?
Post by: Phil Potts on August 12, 2022, 03:21:32 am
If so, then the question of whether CO2 blocks more heat from the sun than it traps, is resolved.
I deductively reason that the physics of it have been known and proven longer than any of us have been alive. Therefore, I deductively reason that the question is resolved.
Both Mrs Foote and Mr Tyndall in the 19th C are addressing my misgivings anyway. They do not propose that sunlight as energy passes through the atmosphere and heat up the surface of the earth and co2 only traps outgoing heat. They talk about heating C02 with sunlight. That's incoming heat not outgoing. I've been trying to raise the question of what CO2 does with incoming heat from the sun.
It appears the rule that energy is never lost but only changes form does not apply. CO2 absorbs energy incoming from the sun and the sun still has full heat reaching the surface. That's the theory if both Mrs Foote/Mr Tyndall and yourselves are correct. Let's assume it's the case. 100% CO2 will have air temp of 80c or so and no less sunburn or fading paint.
I said if CO2 holds heat and then releases it, it is not trapping it but conducting it. You later say there is no question of how long this takes, because there is a property called thermal conductivity. So if you object to the word "question", let's have the property expressed in time and temperature. How long does the C02 molecule that is "much warmer" say 10 degrees C warmer than oxygen, take to cool down to the same temp as the rest of the atmosphere, roughly?
Post by: Phil Potts on August 11, 2022, 03:49:12 pm
If so, then the question of whether CO2 blocks more heat from the sun than it traps, is resolved.
I deductively reason that the physics of it have been known and proven longer than any of us have been alive. Therefore, I deductively reason that the question is resolved.
Thats faith based reasoning. If it has been known for longer that the earth is flat, does that make any relatively new reason it is round wrong?
Post by: John of Wallan on August 11, 2022, 03:16:45 pm
Will be interesting when there is none. Who knows for sure what chaotic feedbacks will occur.
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
Arctic sea ice August 2022
Ocean currents keep pushing heat toward the Arctic Ocean
Arctic sea ice is getting very thin, as temperatures keep rising and ocean currents keeps pushing warm water toward the Arctic, as illustrated by the NOAA image below, showing sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic as high as 32.1°C or 89.78°F on August 8, 2022.
Latent heat
Latent heat is ocean heat that is, or rather was previously consumed by melting of the sea ice underneath the sea surface.
[ The Latent Heat Buffer ]
This ice has meanwhile all but disappeared, so without this latent heat buffer further incoming heat must go elsewhere, i.e. the heat will further raise the temperature of the water and it will also cause more evaporation to take place where the sea ice has disappeared altogether, and this in turn will further heat up the atmosphere over the Arctic.
The nullschool.net image below shows sea surface temperature anomalies from 1981-2011. At the green circle, anomalies were 16.1°C or 29°F on August 9, 2022. Back in 1981-2011, the temperature at that spot was 0°C.
Thin layer of sea ice
The image below, adapted from University of Bremen, shows Arctic sea ice concentration on August 9, 2022, with concentration in a large area close to the North Pole as low as 0%.
The image below, from NSIDC, also shows sea ice concentration on August 9, 2022.
There still is a relatively extensive but very thin layer of sea ice present at the surface, due to the suppression of air temperatures that comes with the current La Niña (see images further below).
As long as air temperatures are low enough to keep this surface ice frozen and as long as there are no strong winds pushing the ice out of the Arctic Ocean, this thin layer of ice will act as a seal, preventing transfer of heat from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere.
The larger the remaining sea ice is in extent, the less ocean heat can be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere, which means that more heat will remain in the Arctic Ocean.
[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]
The danger is that ocean heat keeps arriving in the Arctic Ocean, while the latent heat buffer is gone. As a result, more of this heat could reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, threatening to destabilize hydrates in these sediment, resulting in methane eruptions both from these hydrates and from free gas underneath these hydrates.
Record high methane levels
Methane levels are already at record high and growth is accelerating, even without an extra burst of seafloor methane.
NOAA registered a globally averaged marine surface April 2022 mean of 1909.9 ppb, which is 18.7 ppb higher than April 2022, as illustrated by the image on the right. By comparison, the highest annual growth on the NOAA record is 18.31 ppb for 2021.
NOAA's data are for marine surface measurements. More methane tends to accumulate at higher altitudes, as illustrated by the image on the right.
The MetOp satellite recorded a mean global methane level of 1969 ppb at 293 mb on August 4, 2022 pm. When using a 1-year GWP of 200, this translates into 393.8 ppm CO₂e.
As the image underneath also shows, the MetOp satellite also recorded a peak methane level of 3009 ppb at 469 mb on August 9, 2022 pm.
Record high carbon dioxide levels
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels have been quite high over the past few months. Monthly CO₂ was 420.99 ppm both in May and in June 2022. Some hourly CO₂ measurements were well above 422 ppm in May 2022. On May 28, 2022, one hourly average at Mauna Loa was recorded of 424 ppm.
When adding this monthly CO₂ concentration of 420.99 ppm and the above 393.8 ppm CO₂e for methane, that gives a total of 814.79 ppm CO₂e.
Clouds feedback
The clouds tipping point could be crossed due to an additional 5 Gt of methane from an abrupt eruption of the seafloor, which is only 10% of the 50 Gt that Natalia Shakhova et al. warned about long ago, while 50 Gt is in turn only a small fraction of all the methane contained in sediments in the Arctic. On its own, such an eruption of seafloor methane could raise the global mean methane concentration by another 1969 ppb which, at a 1-year GWP of 200, would translate into another 393.8 ppm CO₂e, which when added to the above 814.79 ppm CO₂e, gives a total of 1208.59 ppm CO₂e.
[ from earlier post, click on images to enlarge ]
So, that would abruptly cause the joint CO₂e of just two greenhouse gases, i.e. methane and CO₂, to cross the 1200 ppm clouds tipping point and trigger a further 8°C global temperature rise, due to the clouds feedback alone.
There are further forcers and feedbacks to be taken into account, which means that the clouds tipping point could be crossed even with a far smaller abrupt release of seafloor methane. While it would take longer for the clouds tipping points to get crossed that way, the associated temperature rise could be enough to drive humans into extinctions well before the tipping point was even reached. A rise of 3°C above pre-industrial could occur on land and drive humans into extinction by 2025.
La Niña
[ adapted from NOAA - click on images to enlarge ]
As said, sea ice extent is relatively large at the moment, because we are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña, which is suppressing the temperature rise.
El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, according to NOAA and as also illustrated by the NOAA image below, so the upcoming El Niño can be expected to occur soon.
The NOAA image below indicates that going from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of an El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius (0.5°C or 0.9°F).
Furthermore, the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C (0.27°F). The next El Niño looks set to line up with a high peak in sunspots, in a cataclysmic alignment that could push up the temperature enough to cause even more dramatic sea ice loss in the Arctic, resulting in runaway temperature rise.
Conclusion
In conclusion, there is a growing risk that methane will erupt from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which could cause a dramatic rise in temperature.
Even without such eruption of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, temperatures could rise strongly, as we move into an El Niño and face a peak in sunspots. The resulting temperature rise could drive humans extinct as early as in 2025 with temperatures continuing to skyrocket in 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026.
At the same time, the right thing to do now is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
Arctic sea ice on previous months
• Arctic sea ice June 2022 - why the situation is so dangerous
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/arctic-sea-ice-june-2022-why-situation-is-so-dangerous.html
• Arctic sea ice July 2022
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/arctic-sea-ice-july-2022.html
Further links
• NOAA - Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Contour Charts
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html
• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser
• NSIDC - Arctic sea ice concentration
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews
• NOAA - Trends in Atmospheric Methane
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends_ch4
• nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net
• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html
• Latent Heat Buffer
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html
• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html
• Clouds feedback
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html
• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html
• Cataclysmic Alignment
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html
• Human Extinction by 2025?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/human-extinction-by-2025.html
• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
Post by: FarmGirl on August 11, 2022, 02:51:58 pm
If so, then the question of whether CO2 blocks more heat from the sun than it traps, is resolved.
I deductively reason that the physics of it have been known and proven longer than any of us have been alive. Therefore, I deductively reason that the question is resolved.
Post by: K-Dog on August 11, 2022, 12:41:58 pm
Temperature's rising...
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/11/europe/europe-heatwave-august-intl/index.html
Europe reels as repeated heatwaves cause chaos
RE
Heat wave in Europe: Some people can drink only four hours of water a day amid drought warnings
https://theworldnews.net/gb-news/europe-heatwave-some-people-only-have-four-hours-of-water-daily-amid-drought-alert
The heat wave last month made Europe dry out . This time around the misery is amped up. This is the hottest European summer in 300 years.
Will this affect the price of wheat?
Post by: RE on August 11, 2022, 09:28:31 am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/11/europe/europe-heatwave-august-intl/index.html
Europe reels as repeated heatwaves cause chaos
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on August 05, 2022, 11:16:21 pm
Ill assume EM = electromagnetic.
Are you saying all heat is IR, despite not all heat being equally deeply penetrating?
EM radiation is EM radiation. This is the infrared frequency and explanation. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrared) Usually, higher frequency EM is more deeply penetrating. There is plenty of information on the internet explaining it, pretty easy to look up.Quote from: Phil PottsIf CO2 surrounding hot steel absorbs IR and then radiates IR, it does not block or trap heat, but conducts it, so what is the difference between that and oxygen?
No need to ask me questions, this is all pretty basic and settled science. Physics mostly.Quote from: Phil PottsYes science is useful, but is essentially a method, which we are engaged in here and now with deductive reasoning.
Math doesn't lie, and the general laws of the universe don't either. Deductive reasoning is what you use when you want to prove 4 angels dance on the head of a pin, rather than 5, because there isn't enough room for 5.
Do you have an objection to basic physical properties of matter and energy that folks figured out 150+ years ago? And used those principles to build perfectly working microwave ovens and heat lamp and lasers and whatnot?
Tower of Babel, babbling, Babylon. You must have heard bible students talking of references to Babylon in end times meaning America. I thought the tale was probably about writing changing from hieroglyphic to phonetic, so if you didn't know the new characters or letters you couldn't read and learn. Maybe the prohecy geeks are onto something when the place that no longer explains acronyms is near the nadir.
From the link: Slightly more than half of the energy from the Sun was eventually found, through Herschel's studies, to arrive on Earth in the form of infrared. The balance between absorbed and emitted infrared radiation has an important effect on Earth's climate.
This is one thing I'm questioning is not addressed and might exonerate Al Gore like Colin Powell, just passing on his Intel.
Around 8 question marks addressed to me, but no need to ask one myself?
Deductive reasoning involves honest logical appraisal and is different to deliberate deception. Especially where something is used as justification for consolidating and extending powers by those in power, I'll query whether I'm being given the whole truth. Stalin called those treating every decree like stone tablets brought down from mt sainai, useful idiots
Post by: Phil Potts on August 05, 2022, 10:33:15 pm
Thanks KD, but we are still stuck with the problem of CO2 being a 1 way valve for heat.
The physical property of a solid, liquid or gas isn't a problem. It is just an empirical property of molecules. Why are physical properties of matter a problem? And for who?
Treating the word "problem" in describing key interdependencies in a theory being inadequately addressed as puzzling, suggests unfamiliarity, not mastery in science.
Post by: Phil Potts on August 05, 2022, 07:28:46 pm
Interesting site. Good easily understood explanation with links to videos for those who dont want to read.
JOW
Link:
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/02/25/carbon-dioxide-cause-global-warming/#:~:text=As%20CO2%20soaks%20up%20this,'
Text:
How Exactly Does Carbon Dioxide Cause Global Warming?
BY SARAH FECHT |FEBRUARY 25, 2021
141
Comments
“You Asked” is a series where Earth Institute experts tackle reader questions on science and sustainability. Over the past few years, we’ve received a lot of questions about carbon dioxide — how it traps heat, how it can have such a big effect if it only makes up a tiny percentage of the atmosphere, and more. With the help of Jason Smerdon, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, we answer several of those questions here.
How does carbon dioxide trap heat?
You’ve probably already read that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases act like a blanket or a cap, trapping some of the heat that Earth might have otherwise radiated out into space. That’s the simple answer. But how exactly do certain molecules trap heat? The answer there requires diving into physics and chemistry.
simplified diagram of the greenhouse effect
Simplified diagram showing how Earth transforms sunlight into infrared energy. Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane absorb the infrared energy, re-emitting some of it back toward Earth and some of it out into space. Credit: A loose necktie on Wikimedia Commons
When sunlight reaches Earth, the surface absorbs some of the light’s energy and reradiates it as infrared waves, which we feel as heat. (Hold your hand over a dark rock on a warm sunny day and you can feel this phenomenon for yourself.) These infrared waves travel up into the atmosphere and will escape back into space if unimpeded.
Oxygen and nitrogen don’t interfere with infrared waves in the atmosphere. That’s because molecules are picky about the range of wavelengths that they interact with, Smerdon explained. For example, oxygen and nitrogen absorb energy that has tightly packed wavelengths of around 200 nanometers or less, whereas infrared energy travels at wider and lazier wavelengths of 700 to 1,000,000 nanometers. Those ranges don’t overlap, so to oxygen and nitrogen, it’s as if the infrared waves don’t even exist; they let the waves (and heat) pass freely through the atmosphere.
electromagnetic spectrum
A diagram showing the wavelengths of different types of energy. Energy from the Sun reaches Earth as mostly visible light. Earth reradiates that energy as infrared energy, which has a longer, slower wavelength. Whereas oxygen and nitrogen do not respond to infrared waves, greenhouse gases do. Credit: NASA
With CO2 and other greenhouse gases, it’s different. Carbon dioxide, for example, absorbs energy at a variety of wavelengths between 2,000 and 15,000 nanometers — a range that overlaps with that of infrared energy. As CO2 soaks up this infrared energy, it vibrates and re-emits the infrared energy back in all directions. About half of that energy goes out into space, and about half of it returns to Earth as heat, contributing to the ‘greenhouse effect.’
infrared radiation from different gases in the atmosphere
By measuring the wavelengths of infrared radiation that reaches the surface, scientists know that carbon dioxide, ozone, and methane are significantly contributing to rising global temperatures. Credit: Evans 2006 via Skeptical Science
Smerdon says that the reason why some molecules absorb infrared waves and some don’t “depends on their geometry and their composition.” He explained that oxygen and nitrogen molecules are simple — they’re each made up of only two atoms of the same element — which narrows their movements and the variety of wavelengths they can interact with. But greenhouse gases like CO2 and methane are made up of three or more atoms, which gives them a larger variety of ways to stretch and bend and twist. That means they can absorb a wider range of wavelengths — including infrared waves.
How can I see for myself that CO2 absorbs heat?
As an experiment that can be done in the home or the classroom, Smerdon recommends filling one soda bottle with CO2 (perhaps from a soda machine) and filling a second bottle with ambient air. “If you expose them both to a heat lamp, the CO2 bottle will warm up much more than the bottle with just ambient air,” he says. He recommends checking the bottle temperatures with a no-touch infrared thermometer. You’ll also want to make sure that you use the same style of bottle for each, and that both bottles receive the same amount of light from the lamp. Here’s a video of a similar experiment:
A more logistically challenging experiment that Smerdon recommends involves putting an infrared camera and a candle at opposite ends of a closed tube. When the tube is filled with ambient air, the camera picks up the infrared heat from the candle clearly. But once the tube is filled with carbon dioxide, the infrared image of the flame disappears, because the CO2 in the tube absorbs and scatters the heat from the candle in all directions, and therefore blurs out the image of the candle. There are several videos of the experiment online, including this one:
Why does carbon dioxide let heat in, but not out?
Energy enters our atmosphere as visible light, whereas it tries to leave as infrared energy. In other words, “energy coming into our planet from the Sun arrives as one currency, and it leaves in another,” said Smerdon.
CO2 molecules don’t really interact with sunlight’s wavelengths. Only after the Earth absorbs sunlight and reemits the energy as infrared waves can the CO2 and other greenhouse gases absorb the energy.
How can CO2 trap so much heat if it only makes up 0.04% of the atmosphere? Aren’t the molecules spaced too far apart?
Before humans began burning fossil fuels, naturally occurring greenhouse gases helped to make Earth’s climate habitable. Without them, the planet’s average temperature would be below freezing. So we know that even very low, natural levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases can make a huge difference in Earth’s climate.
Today, CO2 levels are higher than they have been in at least 3 million years. And although they still account for only 0.04% of the atmosphere, that still adds up to billions upon billions of tons of heat-trapping gas. For example, in 2019 alone, humans dumped 36.44 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere, where it will linger for hundreds of years. So there are plenty of CO2 molecules to provide a heat-trapping blanket across the entire atmosphere.
In addition, “trace amounts of a substance can have a large impact on a system,” explains Smerdon. Borrowing an analogy from Penn State meteorology professor David Titley, Smerdon said that “If someone my size drinks two beers, my blood alcohol content will be about 0.04 percent. That is right when the human body starts to feel the effects of alcohol.” Commercial drivers with a blood alcohol content of 0.04% can be convicted for driving under the influence.
“Similarly, it doesn’t take that much cyanide to poison a person,” adds Smerdon. “It has to do with how that specific substance interacts with the larger system and what it does to influence that system.”
In the case of greenhouse gases, the planet’s temperature is a balance between how much energy comes in versus how much energy goes out. Ultimately, any increase in the amount of heat-trapping means that the Earth’s surface gets hotter. (For a more advanced discussion of the thermodynamics involved, check out this NASA page.)
If there’s more water than CO2 in the atmosphere, how do we know that water isn’t to blame for climate change?
Water is indeed a greenhouse gas. It absorbs and re-emits infrared radiation, and thus makes the planet warmer. However, Smerdon says the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is a consequence of warming rather than a driving force, because warmer air holds more water.
“We know this on a seasonal level,” he explains. “It’s generally drier in the winter when our local atmosphere is colder, and it’s more humid in the summer when it’s warmer.”
As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases heat up the planet, more water evaporates into the atmosphere, which in turn raises the temperature further. However, a hypothetical villain would not be able to exacerbate climate change by trying to pump more water vapor into the atmosphere, says Smerdon. “It would all rain out because temperature determines how much moisture can actually be held by the atmosphere.”
Similarly, it makes no sense to try to remove water vapor from the atmosphere, because natural, temperature-driven evaporation from plants and bodies of water would immediately replace it. To reduce water vapor in the atmosphere, we must lower global temperatures by reducing other greenhouse gases.
If Venus has an atmosphere that’s 95% CO2, shouldn’t it be a lot hotter than Earth?
image of venus from space
Thick clouds of sulfuric acid surround Venus and prevent 75% of sunlight from reaching the planet’s surface. Without these clouds, Venus would be even hotter than it already is. Credit: NASA
The concentration of CO2 in Venus’ atmosphere is about 2,400 times higher than that of Earth. Yet the average temperature of Venus is only about 15 times higher. What gives?
Interestingly enough, part of the answer has to do with water vapor. According to Smerdon, scientists think that long ago, Venus experienced a runaway greenhouse effect that boiled away almost all of the planet’s water — and water vapor, remember, is also a heat-trapping gas.
“It doesn’t have water vapor in its atmosphere, which is an important factor,” says Smerdon. “And then the other important factor is Venus has all these crazy sulfuric acid clouds.”
High up in Venus’ atmosphere, he explained, clouds of sulfuric acid block about 75% of incoming sunlight. That means the vast majority of sunlight never gets a chance to reach the planet’s surface, return to the atmosphere as infrared energy, and get trapped by all that CO2 in the atmosphere.
Won’t the plants, ocean, and soil just absorb all the excess CO2?
Eventually … in several thousand years or so.
Plants, the oceans, and soil are natural carbon sinks — they remove some carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it underground, underwater, or in roots and tree trunks. Without human activity, the vast amounts of carbon in coal, oil, and natural gas deposits would have remained stored underground and mostly separate from the rest of the carbon cycle. But by burning these fossil fuels, humans are adding a lot more carbon into the atmosphere and ocean, and the carbon sinks don’t work fast enough to clean up our mess.
carbon cycle diagram
A simplified diagram showing the carbon cycle. Credit: Jack Cook/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
It’s like watering your garden with a firehose. Even though plants absorb water, they can only do so at a set rate, and if you keep running the firehose, your yard is going to flood. Currently our atmosphere and ocean are flooded with CO2, and we can see that the carbon sinks can’t keep up because the concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and oceans are rising quickly.
chart showing rising co2 in the atmosphere
The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (raspberry line) has increased along with human emissions (blue line) since the start of the Industrial Revolution in 1750. Credit: NOAA Climate.gov
Unfortunately, we don’t have thousands of years to wait for nature to absorb the flood of CO2. By then, billions of people would have suffered and died from the impacts of climate change; there would be mass extinctions, and our beautiful planet would become unrecognizable. We can avoid much of that damage and suffering through a combination of decarbonizing our energy supply, pulling CO2 out the atmosphere, and developing more sustainable ways of thriving.
Editor’s note (March 17, 2021): This post was updated with additional links to Youtube videos with experiments showing the effects of carbon dioxide. Enjoy!
A few problems with this.
Sunlight is felt as heat not just light. The question is then whether ultra violet is felt immediately as heat. I was trying to get around to that. If so, then the question of whether CO2 blocks more heat from the sun than it traps, is resolved.
Venus water apparently boiled off due to runaway climate change. We are not told why that water vapour did not reach a height where it was far enough away from the hot surface to condense and precipitate, especially if Venus is rotating and the clouds spend time not facing the sun.
A bottle of CO2 is described as getting "much warmer" than a bottle of air if heated. I assume they meant for equal time at equal ambient temperature. Put aside the problem of filling the bottle with CO2 when it is weightless (though climate narrative measures it in tons not cubic metres), without compressing it which makes it cold. Does "much warmer" mean even twice as warm? If we are only talking twice as warm with a 100% concentration, why would a concentration of 0.04% be even measurable.
The candle experiment is inadequate. The size of tube or length of time is not specified. If the tube fills with CO2 the flame will go out to begin with, that explains no longer seeing it as lone IR. The air in the tube also heats up, further explaining why everything in the tube is showing IR and not just the candle (flame?) KD was capable of giving a straightforward answer in the affirmative to the question of IR being one and the same thing as heat. Until we know the sun is not radiating heat, C02 as a greenhouse gas remains like cloud.
I credited cloud from the beginning with both trapping heat as long as we are creating it by burning our daily amount of coal, oil and gas. I also said I believe it acts as a self correcting system by blocking the sun and cooling earth if it gets too hot (before an ice age or mini ice age does it anyway). Before that happens we could expect super storms. We have super storms but the contribution of geo engineering is not know, at least to us. There is no incentive to discuss the impact of US HAARP network, or China's much bigger "river in the sky" on extreme weather events, when the question is begging.
We are told C02 was at a higher concentration 3m years ago. Early hominid human ancestors were ONLY living right on the equator at that time. Note anthropology does not call that "Settled Science", because a 6m year or older proto human fossil may yet be found in Antarctica or Alaska the same way caffeine, red wine, cholesterol, carbohydrates and fats are in endless cycles of being proven good and bad for you. We only invoke this new term where it is being used to transform civilization by politicians, even with the widest margin of error and record of failure.
Post by: Phil Potts on August 05, 2022, 05:50:15 pm
Never too much. ;DA molecule can give up vibrational energy by emitting an infrared photon of light at temperatures we are familiar with.
Do you have a photo of said photon? What store might i be able to buy one at, that i can examine it? I read on the internet that it was created to explain why the rioters on january 6 flooded the capital, they were infected with a micro receiver by government agents in the crowd spraying it from those aerosol dispensers that looked like disinfectant because of Covid. It turned those otherwise wise and gentle Qanon folks into raging zombies when photons were beamed at the micro-receivers that had been planted in them. Even a small mount of deductive reasoning can prove all of this, obviously, but I am willing to retract it all if you can show me a picture of this photon thingy. /s
;D Too much?
You forgot to add references to that blonde pigtail girls who seems to stir hatred in grown men, or the new world order. Oh, and perhaps a religious text and accuse someone of being a satanist always works.. Perhaps a Sandy Hook reference, or a ficticious story about rights being denied by the evil vacination globalists. Guns! Dont get me started on gun rights... Apparently I cant have a piece of empty brass on me or I will be arrested. I must have dodged that bullet (Pardon the pun) for the last 40 years.
Everyone knows better than the scientists when it does not agree with their lifestyle, but are happy to use the trappings of scientific discovery when convienient. Looking out for the environment and your fellow man is not socialism. 25 years ago I would have called it being a good Christian. Now I call it being a decent human being.
See text and link below. Yes I have read it. No, I did not write it so dont quote me as the author... Contains no references to the evil Gretta or Guy persons.... I dont think I ever have mentioned Gretta before now I think of it..
JOW
Link:
https://www.dailyimpact.net/2022/07/29/taking-baby-steps-toward-catastrophe/#more-5018
Also a audia version of this at the site. Always informative and very tongue in cheek.
TEXT:
Taking “Baby Steps” Toward Catastrophe
By Tom Lewis | July 29, 2022 | Climate, Politics
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
A map showing world temperatures last July.
Senator Joe Manchin has graciously allowed the federal government to send several gallons of water to fight the wildfires raging in 15 or so states: some empty pails to Florida to bail out the sea water that threatens to overwash the state; a couple of kayaks to ride out hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico; and billions and billions of dollars to the rich and famous who make (and buy) electric cars and build wind and solar “farms.” Now he’s taking a victory lap as a savior of mankind.
The bill he permitted President Biden to get approved by the Congress is being described everywhere as “the nation’s biggest investment ever in the future of our overheating planet.” With $369 billion in the hopper, that would appear to be true. It’s also a way of pointing out that the federal government has not done squat about our overheating planet until now, an existential dereliction of duty. And it begs comparison with the $850 billion dollars conferred on our vast imperial military-industrial complex just one month ago; largess that included $39 billion more than the defense department requested.
Among other things, the bill includes:
Billions to subsidize the manufacture and purchase of electric vehicles, which are relentlessly described as producing zero emissions, ignoring the emissions of the power plants producing the electricity with which to charge them. (Granted they cause the emission of less greenhouse gasses than cars powered by internal combustion engines, but it is not zero.) Ignoring as well the fact that our elderly and infirm electric grids, which are barely keeping up with current — and relentlessly increasing — demand, could be broken down by the addition of millions of car chargers.
A laundry list of benevolence to various industries that manufacture such things as windmills, solar panels, energy-efficient appliances, “emission-reducing technologies.”
The Washington Post describes the measures in the bill as “baby steps.” Baby steps are appropriate in the nursery, not for escaping a raging house fire. People who were serious about the long and deepening emergency of climate change would be talking about ending subsidies to fossil-fuel producers, taxing polluting products such as gasoline, limiting emissions with harshly punitive laws, restoring the EPA’s ability (recently stripped by the Supreme Court) to choke off emissions from dirty power plants. The time when baby steps were acceptable is years in the past.
A few days after taking office, President Biden established by executive order the federal Office of Climate Change, to marshal and coordinate the full power of the federal government to assist people afflicted by global warming. A year and a half later, Congress has not allocated a penny to fund the office, which as a result has no office and no employees. Not even a baby step.
If you doubt the consequences of continuing on our present course, consider the situation that has arisen in London, England. Developers in west London are being told that they will not be permitted to build any new housing projects until about 2035 because the electric grid does not have the capacity to supply them and the fix will take more than a decade. Or take the case of South Africa, where load shedding — deliberate rolling blackouts imposed by the grid managers to avoid total breakdown — are leaving most people without power for six hours a day.
Coming soon to a jurisdiction near you. Thanks to Senator Manchin and baby steps.
Who's the evil girl? It couldn't be anyone I said has legit concerns, maybe its farmgirl/buddyJ/MKing? Nice you buried the hatchet and he's had an epiphany on being a climate change believer. This would have happened right about the time the agency said Jan 6 type "patriots" that he also used to resemble with a lot of USA USA Ra Ra, overlap with climate change deniers.
Sure policeman Pete could have been lying about people without firearms licence for the type of weapon getting fined for posession of empty shells in this state. You don't need an arsenal, especially not in your pod or processing centre though, so accept that I am obliged to profile and flag you for that as well, should you take up all the expanding funding to address mental health. In a time of spiralling debt and gutting Medicare, we can afford this. We care people aren't sad, it's not because we are ramping up pre crime control to maintain control. So take that for the team as well as eating bugs, shutting down farming for greenhouse gas, exporting fossil fuel but not burning it ourselves, and everything else in the name of climate and pandemic emergency.
Post by: John of Wallan on August 05, 2022, 04:40:16 pm
JOW
Link:
https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/02/25/carbon-dioxide-cause-global-warming/#:~:text=As%20CO2%20soaks%20up%20this,'
Text:
How Exactly Does Carbon Dioxide Cause Global Warming?
BY SARAH FECHT |FEBRUARY 25, 2021
141
Comments
“You Asked” is a series where Earth Institute experts tackle reader questions on science and sustainability. Over the past few years, we’ve received a lot of questions about carbon dioxide — how it traps heat, how it can have such a big effect if it only makes up a tiny percentage of the atmosphere, and more. With the help of Jason Smerdon, a climate scientist at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, we answer several of those questions here.
How does carbon dioxide trap heat?
You’ve probably already read that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases act like a blanket or a cap, trapping some of the heat that Earth might have otherwise radiated out into space. That’s the simple answer. But how exactly do certain molecules trap heat? The answer there requires diving into physics and chemistry.
simplified diagram of the greenhouse effect
Simplified diagram showing how Earth transforms sunlight into infrared energy. Greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide and methane absorb the infrared energy, re-emitting some of it back toward Earth and some of it out into space. Credit: A loose necktie on Wikimedia Commons
When sunlight reaches Earth, the surface absorbs some of the light’s energy and reradiates it as infrared waves, which we feel as heat. (Hold your hand over a dark rock on a warm sunny day and you can feel this phenomenon for yourself.) These infrared waves travel up into the atmosphere and will escape back into space if unimpeded.
Oxygen and nitrogen don’t interfere with infrared waves in the atmosphere. That’s because molecules are picky about the range of wavelengths that they interact with, Smerdon explained. For example, oxygen and nitrogen absorb energy that has tightly packed wavelengths of around 200 nanometers or less, whereas infrared energy travels at wider and lazier wavelengths of 700 to 1,000,000 nanometers. Those ranges don’t overlap, so to oxygen and nitrogen, it’s as if the infrared waves don’t even exist; they let the waves (and heat) pass freely through the atmosphere.
electromagnetic spectrum
A diagram showing the wavelengths of different types of energy. Energy from the Sun reaches Earth as mostly visible light. Earth reradiates that energy as infrared energy, which has a longer, slower wavelength. Whereas oxygen and nitrogen do not respond to infrared waves, greenhouse gases do. Credit: NASA
With CO2 and other greenhouse gases, it’s different. Carbon dioxide, for example, absorbs energy at a variety of wavelengths between 2,000 and 15,000 nanometers — a range that overlaps with that of infrared energy. As CO2 soaks up this infrared energy, it vibrates and re-emits the infrared energy back in all directions. About half of that energy goes out into space, and about half of it returns to Earth as heat, contributing to the ‘greenhouse effect.’
infrared radiation from different gases in the atmosphere
By measuring the wavelengths of infrared radiation that reaches the surface, scientists know that carbon dioxide, ozone, and methane are significantly contributing to rising global temperatures. Credit: Evans 2006 via Skeptical Science
Smerdon says that the reason why some molecules absorb infrared waves and some don’t “depends on their geometry and their composition.” He explained that oxygen and nitrogen molecules are simple — they’re each made up of only two atoms of the same element — which narrows their movements and the variety of wavelengths they can interact with. But greenhouse gases like CO2 and methane are made up of three or more atoms, which gives them a larger variety of ways to stretch and bend and twist. That means they can absorb a wider range of wavelengths — including infrared waves.
How can I see for myself that CO2 absorbs heat?
As an experiment that can be done in the home or the classroom, Smerdon recommends filling one soda bottle with CO2 (perhaps from a soda machine) and filling a second bottle with ambient air. “If you expose them both to a heat lamp, the CO2 bottle will warm up much more than the bottle with just ambient air,” he says. He recommends checking the bottle temperatures with a no-touch infrared thermometer. You’ll also want to make sure that you use the same style of bottle for each, and that both bottles receive the same amount of light from the lamp. Here’s a video of a similar experiment:
A more logistically challenging experiment that Smerdon recommends involves putting an infrared camera and a candle at opposite ends of a closed tube. When the tube is filled with ambient air, the camera picks up the infrared heat from the candle clearly. But once the tube is filled with carbon dioxide, the infrared image of the flame disappears, because the CO2 in the tube absorbs and scatters the heat from the candle in all directions, and therefore blurs out the image of the candle. There are several videos of the experiment online, including this one:
Why does carbon dioxide let heat in, but not out?
Energy enters our atmosphere as visible light, whereas it tries to leave as infrared energy. In other words, “energy coming into our planet from the Sun arrives as one currency, and it leaves in another,” said Smerdon.
CO2 molecules don’t really interact with sunlight’s wavelengths. Only after the Earth absorbs sunlight and reemits the energy as infrared waves can the CO2 and other greenhouse gases absorb the energy.
How can CO2 trap so much heat if it only makes up 0.04% of the atmosphere? Aren’t the molecules spaced too far apart?
Before humans began burning fossil fuels, naturally occurring greenhouse gases helped to make Earth’s climate habitable. Without them, the planet’s average temperature would be below freezing. So we know that even very low, natural levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases can make a huge difference in Earth’s climate.
Today, CO2 levels are higher than they have been in at least 3 million years. And although they still account for only 0.04% of the atmosphere, that still adds up to billions upon billions of tons of heat-trapping gas. For example, in 2019 alone, humans dumped 36.44 billion tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere, where it will linger for hundreds of years. So there are plenty of CO2 molecules to provide a heat-trapping blanket across the entire atmosphere.
In addition, “trace amounts of a substance can have a large impact on a system,” explains Smerdon. Borrowing an analogy from Penn State meteorology professor David Titley, Smerdon said that “If someone my size drinks two beers, my blood alcohol content will be about 0.04 percent. That is right when the human body starts to feel the effects of alcohol.” Commercial drivers with a blood alcohol content of 0.04% can be convicted for driving under the influence.
“Similarly, it doesn’t take that much cyanide to poison a person,” adds Smerdon. “It has to do with how that specific substance interacts with the larger system and what it does to influence that system.”
In the case of greenhouse gases, the planet’s temperature is a balance between how much energy comes in versus how much energy goes out. Ultimately, any increase in the amount of heat-trapping means that the Earth’s surface gets hotter. (For a more advanced discussion of the thermodynamics involved, check out this NASA page.)
If there’s more water than CO2 in the atmosphere, how do we know that water isn’t to blame for climate change?
Water is indeed a greenhouse gas. It absorbs and re-emits infrared radiation, and thus makes the planet warmer. However, Smerdon says the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is a consequence of warming rather than a driving force, because warmer air holds more water.
“We know this on a seasonal level,” he explains. “It’s generally drier in the winter when our local atmosphere is colder, and it’s more humid in the summer when it’s warmer.”
As carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases heat up the planet, more water evaporates into the atmosphere, which in turn raises the temperature further. However, a hypothetical villain would not be able to exacerbate climate change by trying to pump more water vapor into the atmosphere, says Smerdon. “It would all rain out because temperature determines how much moisture can actually be held by the atmosphere.”
Similarly, it makes no sense to try to remove water vapor from the atmosphere, because natural, temperature-driven evaporation from plants and bodies of water would immediately replace it. To reduce water vapor in the atmosphere, we must lower global temperatures by reducing other greenhouse gases.
If Venus has an atmosphere that’s 95% CO2, shouldn’t it be a lot hotter than Earth?
image of venus from space
Thick clouds of sulfuric acid surround Venus and prevent 75% of sunlight from reaching the planet’s surface. Without these clouds, Venus would be even hotter than it already is. Credit: NASA
The concentration of CO2 in Venus’ atmosphere is about 2,400 times higher than that of Earth. Yet the average temperature of Venus is only about 15 times higher. What gives?
Interestingly enough, part of the answer has to do with water vapor. According to Smerdon, scientists think that long ago, Venus experienced a runaway greenhouse effect that boiled away almost all of the planet’s water — and water vapor, remember, is also a heat-trapping gas.
“It doesn’t have water vapor in its atmosphere, which is an important factor,” says Smerdon. “And then the other important factor is Venus has all these crazy sulfuric acid clouds.”
High up in Venus’ atmosphere, he explained, clouds of sulfuric acid block about 75% of incoming sunlight. That means the vast majority of sunlight never gets a chance to reach the planet’s surface, return to the atmosphere as infrared energy, and get trapped by all that CO2 in the atmosphere.
Won’t the plants, ocean, and soil just absorb all the excess CO2?
Eventually … in several thousand years or so.
Plants, the oceans, and soil are natural carbon sinks — they remove some carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and store it underground, underwater, or in roots and tree trunks. Without human activity, the vast amounts of carbon in coal, oil, and natural gas deposits would have remained stored underground and mostly separate from the rest of the carbon cycle. But by burning these fossil fuels, humans are adding a lot more carbon into the atmosphere and ocean, and the carbon sinks don’t work fast enough to clean up our mess.
carbon cycle diagram
A simplified diagram showing the carbon cycle. Credit: Jack Cook/Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
It’s like watering your garden with a firehose. Even though plants absorb water, they can only do so at a set rate, and if you keep running the firehose, your yard is going to flood. Currently our atmosphere and ocean are flooded with CO2, and we can see that the carbon sinks can’t keep up because the concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere and oceans are rising quickly.
chart showing rising co2 in the atmosphere
The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere (raspberry line) has increased along with human emissions (blue line) since the start of the Industrial Revolution in 1750. Credit: NOAA Climate.gov
Unfortunately, we don’t have thousands of years to wait for nature to absorb the flood of CO2. By then, billions of people would have suffered and died from the impacts of climate change; there would be mass extinctions, and our beautiful planet would become unrecognizable. We can avoid much of that damage and suffering through a combination of decarbonizing our energy supply, pulling CO2 out the atmosphere, and developing more sustainable ways of thriving.
Editor’s note (March 17, 2021): This post was updated with additional links to Youtube videos with experiments showing the effects of carbon dioxide. Enjoy!
Post by: John of Wallan on August 05, 2022, 04:28:39 pm
Never too much. ;DA molecule can give up vibrational energy by emitting an infrared photon of light at temperatures we are familiar with.
Do you have a photo of said photon? What store might i be able to buy one at, that i can examine it? I read on the internet that it was created to explain why the rioters on january 6 flooded the capital, they were infected with a micro receiver by government agents in the crowd spraying it from those aerosol dispensers that looked like disinfectant because of Covid. It turned those otherwise wise and gentle Qanon folks into raging zombies when photons were beamed at the micro-receivers that had been planted in them. Even a small mount of deductive reasoning can prove all of this, obviously, but I am willing to retract it all if you can show me a picture of this photon thingy. /s
;D Too much?
You forgot to add references to that blonde pigtail girls who seems to stir hatred in grown men, or the new world order. Oh, and perhaps a religious text and accuse someone of being a satanist always works.. Perhaps a Sandy Hook reference, or a ficticious story about rights being denied by the evil vacination globalists. Guns! Dont get me started on gun rights... Apparently I cant have a piece of empty brass on me or I will be arrested. I must have dodged that bullet (Pardon the pun) for the last 40 years.
Everyone knows better than the scientists when it does not agree with their lifestyle, but are happy to use the trappings of scientific discovery when convienient. Looking out for the environment and your fellow man is not socialism. 25 years ago I would have called it being a good Christian. Now I call it being a decent human being.
See text and link below. Yes I have read it. No, I did not write it so dont quote me as the author... Contains no references to the evil Gretta or Guy persons.... I dont think I ever have mentioned Gretta before now I think of it..
JOW
Link:
https://www.dailyimpact.net/2022/07/29/taking-baby-steps-toward-catastrophe/#more-5018
Also a audia version of this at the site. Always informative and very tongue in cheek.
TEXT:
Taking “Baby Steps” Toward Catastrophe
By Tom Lewis | July 29, 2022 | Climate, Politics
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Subscribe: RSS
A map showing world temperatures last July.
Senator Joe Manchin has graciously allowed the federal government to send several gallons of water to fight the wildfires raging in 15 or so states: some empty pails to Florida to bail out the sea water that threatens to overwash the state; a couple of kayaks to ride out hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico; and billions and billions of dollars to the rich and famous who make (and buy) electric cars and build wind and solar “farms.” Now he’s taking a victory lap as a savior of mankind.
The bill he permitted President Biden to get approved by the Congress is being described everywhere as “the nation’s biggest investment ever in the future of our overheating planet.” With $369 billion in the hopper, that would appear to be true. It’s also a way of pointing out that the federal government has not done squat about our overheating planet until now, an existential dereliction of duty. And it begs comparison with the $850 billion dollars conferred on our vast imperial military-industrial complex just one month ago; largess that included $39 billion more than the defense department requested.
Among other things, the bill includes:
Billions to subsidize the manufacture and purchase of electric vehicles, which are relentlessly described as producing zero emissions, ignoring the emissions of the power plants producing the electricity with which to charge them. (Granted they cause the emission of less greenhouse gasses than cars powered by internal combustion engines, but it is not zero.) Ignoring as well the fact that our elderly and infirm electric grids, which are barely keeping up with current — and relentlessly increasing — demand, could be broken down by the addition of millions of car chargers.
A laundry list of benevolence to various industries that manufacture such things as windmills, solar panels, energy-efficient appliances, “emission-reducing technologies.”
The Washington Post describes the measures in the bill as “baby steps.” Baby steps are appropriate in the nursery, not for escaping a raging house fire. People who were serious about the long and deepening emergency of climate change would be talking about ending subsidies to fossil-fuel producers, taxing polluting products such as gasoline, limiting emissions with harshly punitive laws, restoring the EPA’s ability (recently stripped by the Supreme Court) to choke off emissions from dirty power plants. The time when baby steps were acceptable is years in the past.
A few days after taking office, President Biden established by executive order the federal Office of Climate Change, to marshal and coordinate the full power of the federal government to assist people afflicted by global warming. A year and a half later, Congress has not allocated a penny to fund the office, which as a result has no office and no employees. Not even a baby step.
If you doubt the consequences of continuing on our present course, consider the situation that has arisen in London, England. Developers in west London are being told that they will not be permitted to build any new housing projects until about 2035 because the electric grid does not have the capacity to supply them and the fix will take more than a decade. Or take the case of South Africa, where load shedding — deliberate rolling blackouts imposed by the grid managers to avoid total breakdown — are leaving most people without power for six hours a day.
Coming soon to a jurisdiction near you. Thanks to Senator Manchin and baby steps.
Post by: FarmGirl on August 05, 2022, 03:55:16 pm
A molecule can give up vibrational energy by emitting an infrared photon of light at temperatures we are familiar with.
Do you have a photo of said photon? What store might i be able to buy one at, that i can examine it? I read on the internet that it was created to explain why the rioters on january 6 flooded the capital, they were infected with a micro receiver by government agents in the crowd spraying it from those aerosol dispensers that looked like disinfectant because of Covid. It turned those otherwise wise and gentle Qanon folks into raging zombies when photons were beamed at the micro-receivers that had been planted in them. Even a small mount of deductive reasoning can prove all of this, obviously, but I am willing to retract it all if you can show me a picture of this photon thingy. /s
;D Too much?
Post by: K-Dog on August 04, 2022, 07:38:25 pm
A molecule can give up vibrational energy by emitting an infrared photon of light at temperatures we are familiar with. When things get very hot light that is given out has more energy. We start to see a red glow and eventually the color becomes blue white if things are hot enough. Blue light has more energy than red. About twice as much for each photon. Before things get hot enough to see, infrared is emitted. We feel radiated heat and the CO2 in the air is absorbing the heat we feel before we see a glow.
CO2 both releases and absorbs heat. It is a two way street. Energy bounces between CO2 molecules like a pinball being hit by bumpers when you do a pinball wizard thing.
As you play pinball, energy is trapped in the machine by the moving game ball. Heat in the atmosphere is trapped by CO2 and other molecules that have a lot of energy states they can be in. Energy passes by infrared photons as molecules change energy states. Tiny balls called photons instead of a big steel one. Eventually photons leave the atmosphere but there is a lot of bouncing around first. Enough to warm things up even if many infrared photons pass to space without being intercepted at all.
Post by: FarmGirl on August 04, 2022, 03:02:20 pm
Thanks KD, but we are still stuck with the problem of CO2 being a 1 way valve for heat.
The physical property of a solid, liquid or gas isn't a problem. It is just an empirical property of molecules. Why are physical properties of matter a problem? And for who?
Post by: FarmGirl on August 04, 2022, 03:00:13 pm
Next is the question of how long CO2 holds heat. Seconds, minutes, hours, days, years, permanently?
It isn't a question. It is a physical property of CO2, and is called thermal conductivity. (https://material-properties.org/carbon-dioxide-density-heat-capacity-thermal-conductivity/)
Quote from: Phil Potts
Whatever the time, we accept it happens long enough to matter. That then raises the question of whether blocking heat from the sun causes less ocean evaporation than increased air temp causing greater evaporation.
What is "blocking heat"? And water vapor is a GREAT greenhouse gas!! Do you have any objeection to water vapor being a greenhouse gas like CO2? Because to heck with CO2, water vapor and the greenhouse effect of water vapor is why life exists on this planet. Do you believe it is okay for water vapor to be a greenhouse gas but not CO2 for some reason?
Post by: FarmGirl on August 04, 2022, 02:45:50 pm
Ill assume EM = electromagnetic.
Are you saying all heat is IR, despite not all heat being equally deeply penetrating?
EM radiation is EM radiation. This is the infrared frequency and explanation. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Infrared) Usually, higher frequency EM is more deeply penetrating. There is plenty of information on the internet explaining it, pretty easy to look up.
Quote from: Phil Potts
If CO2 surrounding hot steel absorbs IR and then radiates IR, it does not block or trap heat, but conducts it, so what is the difference between that and oxygen?
No need to ask me questions, this is all pretty basic and settled science. Physics mostly.
Quote from: Phil Potts
Yes science is useful, but is essentially a method, which we are engaged in here and now with deductive reasoning.
Math doesn't lie, and the general laws of the universe don't either. Deductive reasoning is what you use when you want to prove 4 angels dance on the head of a pin, rather than 5, because there isn't enough room for 5.
Do you have an objection to basic physical properties of matter and energy that folks figured out 150+ years ago? And used those principles to build perfectly working microwave ovens and heat lamp and lasers and whatnot?
Post by: Phil Potts on August 04, 2022, 10:34:10 am
Radical, systemic change never produces profit.
I make sweeping generalizations, I know. My generalizations describe collective action, not specifics. Collective action is what makes CO2 concentration in the air go up. Increasing CO2 in the air dooms humanity. It is as simple as that.
The details one gets easily lost in. The forest cannot be seen through the trees. The details are a quagmire. The big picture is my CO2 concentration in the top right of this page goes up, and never down.
It is this simple. Light is absorbed by fog. If someone shines a light at you and there is enough fog, you can't see the light. You already know this. A beam of light is scattered and absorbed by fog. Where it is absorbed, it becomes heat. But not enough heat so you will notice. If you understand this, you can understand what CO2 does in the air.
The sun sends light to earth, only part of which we can see. That which we can see is not blocked by CO2. The air is clear to visible light. Much of light that we can't see is blocked as if by fog. Light we can't see is infrared light. Infrared light scatters and is absorbed by CO2. Heat on the earths surface can't escape to space easily because CO2 blocks radiated heat. Radiated heat is the same thing as infrared light. Hot objects glow with infrared light that people can't see. CO2 scatters and absorbs radiated heat, making air warmer. Enough so you notice. The sun is more than a flashlight.
Visible light is not always reflected when it strikes the earth. Visible light absorbed, becomes heat. Which CO2 prevents the escape of. More CO2, more heat.
Energy from the sun is always radiated away from the earth as heat or reflected light. What comes in goes out. A balance is kept. As the earth warms from absorbing energy from the sun. Heat radiates away to keep the solar energy flow in balance. More CO2 in the air means more energy captured before it is radiated away. Temperature rises to keep in-out energy flow balance correct.
Simple stuff, but nobody cares. Again, a generalization that only in the collective is right.
Thanks KD, but we are still stuck with the problem of CO2 being a 1 way valve for heat.
Next is the question of how long CO2 holds heat. Seconds, minutes, hours, days, years, permanently?
Whatever the time, we accept it happens long enough to matter. That then raises the question of whether blocking heat from the sun causes less ocean evaporation than increased air temp causing greater evaporation.
Something else nobody cares about (who shapes public narrative at least) is what effect geoengineering has on extreme weather events, before we point to those as evidence.
Post by: K-Dog on August 04, 2022, 07:32:31 am
I make sweeping generalizations, I know. My generalizations describe collective action, not specifics. Collective action is what makes CO2 concentration in the air go up. Increasing CO2 in the air dooms humanity. It is as simple as that.
The details one gets easily lost in. The forest cannot be seen through the trees. The details are a quagmire. The big picture is my CO2 concentration in the top right of this page goes up, and never down.
It is this simple. Light is absorbed by fog. If someone shines a light at you and there is enough fog, you can't see the light. You already know this. A beam of light is scattered and absorbed by fog. Where it is absorbed, it becomes heat. But not enough heat so you will notice. If you understand this, you can understand what CO2 does in the air.
The sun sends light to earth, only part of which we can see. That which we can see is not blocked by CO2. The air is clear to visible light. Much of light that we can't see is blocked as if by fog. Light we can't see is infrared light. Infrared light scatters and is absorbed by CO2. Heat on the earths surface can't escape to space easily because CO2 blocks radiated heat. Radiated heat is the same thing as infrared light. Hot objects glow with infrared light that people can't see. CO2 scatters and absorbs radiated heat, making air warmer. Enough so you notice. The sun is more than a flashlight.
Visible light is not always reflected when it strikes the earth. Visible light absorbed, becomes heat. Which CO2 prevents the escape of. More CO2, more heat.
Energy from the sun is always radiated away from the earth as heat or reflected light. What comes in goes out. A balance is kept. As the earth warms from absorbing energy from the sun. Heat radiates away to keep the solar energy flow in balance. More CO2 in the air means more energy captured before it is radiated away. Temperature rises to keep in-out energy flow balance correct.
Simple stuff, but nobody cares. Again, a generalization that only in the collective is right.
Post by: Phil Potts on August 03, 2022, 12:48:01 am
I like these old science experiments because everything was new under the Sun back then, yet they discovered so much with just some cleverness. Including using simple eperiments to prove things like CO2 as a greenhouse gas.
A greenhouse is solid glass for one thing. Why not call it a house effect? Global warming is meant to be from burning stuff at ground level not allowing in sunlight.
You know, I don't have a clue where the entire "greenhouse"part came from, other than as an obvious analogy? And the effect as described in the experiment has nothing to do with burning anything.Quote from: Phil PottsWhat creates infrared, sunlight or just air?
You create infrared. It is just a frequency range in the EM radiation band. Visible light from the sun comes blazing in at 380-700 nanometers and hits an ice cube! The ice cube warms slightly, and in that increase in warm is emitting more infrared than it originally did. You and I just sitting typing emit IR. it is really a cool thing, the EM band, and I looked up some of this because you asked an interesting question and i certainly did't know much about it until I looked.
The beauty of the internet, you doubt a greenhouse effect, you can go right back to pre Civil War experiments and duplicate them or just study the full range of the EM band...it is cool.Quote from: Phil PottsIf there is pure CO2 and you put a hot piece of steelq in, will the steel stay hot and not cool down? Hot water? A hot rock?
Pure CO2 with a temperature above absolute zero emits IR! Raise it's temperature as the steel transfers heat from high to low according to thermodynamics and presto, the CO2 emits more IR. Stick the hot steel in your arm, and your arm will emit more iR!
So....the planet Earth is always being hit by all sorts of EM radiation, visible light and IR and gamma rays and all kinds of things come blasting in...and CO2 allows the visible light energy to pass through, go zipping on by. And then that light hits stuff on the surface...and that stuff warms from the light....and emits more IR...and then the radiating IR blasts off the surface and radiates skyward and hits the atmospheric CO2 while trying to escape back into space and now the CO2 stops some of it as it tries to leave. More CO2, more stopping the emitted IR. Greenhouse effect, and no need for a solid in the least. Just miles of atmosphere with some CO2 in it.
Science stuff is wild I think. Should have paid more attention to more of it when I was younger and learned better.Quote from: Phil PottsWhat result did the experiment you were running yourself, gathering temps at specific locations to test for warming produce?
Oh, I didn't try and duplicate her experiment, I just think anyone who doubts what they are told on the internet but has science involved can just go figure it out, in this case it has been known for 150 years, anyone can just go run the same experiment to prove it to themselves. I don't doubt her work. But I lived a bunch about the EM band trying to answer your question.
Ill assume EM = electromagnetic.
Are you saying all heat is IR, despite not all heat being equally deeply penetrating?
If CO2 surrounding hot steel absorbs IR and then radiates IR, it does not block or trap heat, but conducts it, so what is the difference between that and oxygen?
Does CO2 block more, less, or equal amount of incoming IR in sunlight than outgoing from the earth? Given that IR lights for heating actually give off red light, it isn't unreasonable to assume IR in light is far stronger than IR in darkness.
I didn't ask about you replicating a study on CO2. I asked about the result of your own testing for global warming by following a few selected locations in the USA, apparently not only long enough ago to have a result, but also to forget.
I did spend a little time trying to find out how the CO2 acts as a greenhouse gas, could not find anything except articles about it as fait accompli, with no mention of how. Yes science is useful, but is essentially a method, which we are engaged in here and now with deductive reasoning.
Post by: Phil Potts on August 03, 2022, 12:17:56 am
https://climatefeedback.org/claim-reviews/Very reassuring I'm sure, like incense, garlic, a stake through the heart and exorcist.
A whole page of troll repellant.
JOW
None of the first five headings had anything to do with the topic though. It was all just Mohammed isn't god despite what Muslims claim, Buddha isn't enlightened despite what a bhuddist said..
Post by: Phil Potts on August 03, 2022, 12:07:58 am
https://climatefeedback.org/claimreview/simple-measurements-demonstrate-that-co2-is-a-greenhouse-gas-tim-ball/
Dont be a troll.
JOW
You mean blasphemer. I read the first few paragraphs. No substance, just assurances to the saved. This is much worse than the links telling us we have two years until we are extinct.
Post by: John of Wallan on August 02, 2022, 07:32:57 pm
A whole page of troll repellant.
JOW
Post by: John of Wallan on August 02, 2022, 07:29:27 pm
Dont be a troll.
JOW
Post by: FarmGirl on August 02, 2022, 07:29:16 pm
I like these old science experiments because everything was new under the Sun back then, yet they discovered so much with just some cleverness. Including using simple eperiments to prove things like CO2 as a greenhouse gas.
A greenhouse is solid glass for one thing. Why not call it a house effect? Global warming is meant to be from burning stuff at ground level not allowing in sunlight.
You know, I don't have a clue where the entire "greenhouse"part came from, other than as an obvious analogy? And the effect as described in the experiment has nothing to do with burning anything.
Quote from: Phil Potts
What creates infrared, sunlight or just air?
You create infrared. It is just a frequency range in the EM radiation band. Visible light from the sun comes blazing in at 380-700 nanometers and hits an ice cube! The ice cube warms slightly, and in that increase in warm is emitting more infrared than it originally did. You and I just sitting typing emit IR. it is really a cool thing, the EM band, and I looked up some of this because you asked an interesting question and i certainly did't know much about it until I looked.
The beauty of the internet, you doubt a greenhouse effect, you can go right back to pre Civil War experiments and duplicate them or just study the full range of the EM band...it is cool.
Quote from: Phil Potts
If there is pure CO2 and you put a hot piece of steelq in, will the steel stay hot and not cool down? Hot water? A hot rock?
Pure CO2 with a temperature above absolute zero emits IR! Raise it's temperature as the steel transfers heat from high to low according to thermodynamics and presto, the CO2 emits more IR. Stick the hot steel in your arm, and your arm will emit more iR!
So....the planet Earth is always being hit by all sorts of EM radiation, visible light and IR and gamma rays and all kinds of things come blasting in...and CO2 allows the visible light energy to pass through, go zipping on by. And then that light hits stuff on the surface...and that stuff warms from the light....and emits more IR...and then the radiating IR blasts off the surface and radiates skyward and hits the atmospheric CO2 while trying to escape back into space and now the CO2 stops some of it as it tries to leave. More CO2, more stopping the emitted IR. Greenhouse effect, and no need for a solid in the least. Just miles of atmosphere with some CO2 in it.
Science stuff is wild I think. Should have paid more attention to more of it when I was younger and learned better.
Quote from: Phil Potts
What result did the experiment you were running yourself, gathering temps at specific locations to test for warming produce?
Oh, I didn't try and duplicate her experiment, I just think anyone who doubts what they are told on the internet but has science involved can just go figure it out, in this case it has been known for 150 years, anyone can just go run the same experiment to prove it to themselves. I don't doubt her work. But I lived a bunch about the EM band trying to answer your question.
Post by: Phil Potts on August 01, 2022, 11:32:58 pm
CO2 being a greenhouse gas is an open question for me, as I just don't see evidence in practice.
I wrote a response, but it appears I didn't hit send or something.
My question was a simple one, and that is what part of the physics of CO2 passing visible light, but not passing infrared and therefore trapping warmth (the same effect as how a greenhouse functions, hence the greenhouse gas part) do you believe is wrong?
I like this example because a woman should have gotten credit for it. (https://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/09/02/the-woman-who-identified-the-greenhouse-effect-years-before-tyndall/#:~:text=Irish%20physicist%20John%20Tyndall%20is,heat%20in%20the%20Earth's%20atmosphere.) Something discovered prior to the US Civil War means any of us could probably run the experiment ourselves if we'd like, using one of those laser temperature measuring things you can buy at about any local hardware store.
I like these old science experiments because everything was new under the Sun back then, yet they discovered so much with just some cleverness. Including using simple eperiments to prove things like CO2 as a greenhouse gas.
A greenhouse is solid glass for one thing. Why not call it a house effect? Global warming is meant to be from burning stuff at ground level not allowing in sunlight.
What creates infrared, sunlight or just air?
If there is pure CO2 and you put a hot piece of steelq in, will the steel stay hot and not cool down? Hot water? A hot rock?
What result did the experiment you were running yourself, gathering temps at specific locations to test for warming produce?
Post by: FarmGirl on August 01, 2022, 05:34:40 pm
CO2 being a greenhouse gas is an open question for me, as I just don't see evidence in practice.
I wrote a response, but it appears I didn't hit send or something.
My question was a simple one, and that is what part of the physics of CO2 passing visible light, but not passing infrared and therefore trapping warmth (the same effect as how a greenhouse functions, hence the greenhouse gas part) do you believe is wrong?
I like this example because a woman should have gotten credit for it. (https://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/09/02/the-woman-who-identified-the-greenhouse-effect-years-before-tyndall/#:~:text=Irish%20physicist%20John%20Tyndall%20is,heat%20in%20the%20Earth's%20atmosphere.) Something discovered prior to the US Civil War means any of us could probably run the experiment ourselves if we'd like, using one of those laser temperature measuring things you can buy at about any local hardware store.
I like these old science experiments because everything was new under the Sun back then, yet they discovered so much with just some cleverness. Including using simple eperiments to prove things like CO2 as a greenhouse gas.
Post by: RE on August 01, 2022, 01:19:08 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tRcUGTLCZjs
RE
Post by: RE on August 01, 2022, 01:16:08 am
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jul/30/total-climate-meltdown-inevitable-heatwaves-global-catastrophe
‘Soon it will be unrecognisable’: total climate meltdown cannot be stopped, says expert
RE
Post by: RE on July 31, 2022, 02:31:58 pm
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/death-toll-kentucky-floods-likely-rise-search-efforts-continue-rcna40776
Death toll in Kentucky floods likely to rise as search efforts continue
RE
Post by: K-Dog on July 31, 2022, 12:05:21 pm
Busted flat in Baton Rouge, waitin' for a train. When I was feelin' near as faded as my jeans.
.
.
.
Cus: - Freedom's just another word for nothin' left to lose
Our brave soul knows doom like we do. Check out this INSIGHTFUL video. He is almost unknown.
https://youtu.be/w2CxjxeQiG8
It is a year old. A climate summit a year ago? Where was I a year ago? I forgot.
Post by: RE on July 31, 2022, 04:22:17 am
https://www.sfchronicle.com/california-wildfires/article/McKinney-Fire-in-Siskiyou-County-explodes-17340211.php
Parts of Yreka under evacuation orders as McKinney Fire grows to more than 30,000 acres
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on July 30, 2022, 03:55:13 am
Quotebut nobody knows for sure.
I have never seen a bear **** in the woods. But I am pretty sure they do.
Cloud formation will pay no attention to human models. Or to our desires.
The nobody knows argument is a smokescreen. In this case it is smoke on the water.
*you know,
Smoke on the water, a fire in the sky
Smoke on the water
I don't know about you, but I deal with the ragged edge of climate change every day. I just came in from the heat where I've been trying to figure out how to drop 100 year old larch trees that are near the house and are dying from last year's heat. I've also been setting up pumps, a 6,000 gallon reservoir and a lot of hose in case we get a fire. If that happens we are the end of a dead end road with no good escape route for a fire crew - so we will be on our own. I used to fight fire, it's done its best to kill me, and I know of what I speak.
My fruit trees are stressed (Especially the small ones planted this year) as are the cool and moisture loving shrubs like black currant and elderberry. I have to put down an older ram that is just too stressed from the heat. That's today. As I've said here before, all of the native tree species here are very stressed with 1 species winked out, another now dying out, and the others in very tough shape. We have a tiny percentage of the wild birds that were here just a decade ago and we are even missing some types of insects.
I'm certainly not denying climate change or how devastating it can be - and we're just getting started. I sure ain't sayin' things are getting better.
My point was that forecasts I saw ten years ago said we would all be dead by now. Perfectly serious people who know a few things got it wrong. Some are still getting it wrong. I tried to show one possible reason why this happened. Or, to put it another way, we ain't dead yet. Other factors that are not being considered in the IPCC forecast are the thinning magnetic field and shifting magnetic poles. More gamma rays are making through the field and they play a part in cloud formation. (That is science not speculation)
By the way, I have seen a bear shitt in the woods and I've had a grizzly shitt on my track in the snow - a big steamy pile. It tends to focus the mind.
I wouldn't be surprised if the next change of cycle from el Nino to la Nina, a lot of new saplings come up. That's what happened here with the huge hardwoods. Just my luck I went away in about October 2017 and came back in March 2019, over an unusual drought period. Nornally it rains a lot and enough to keep fruit trees a few yrs old and gardens alive without watering. I called and asked my neighbour once to water and he said it rained. My Pitbull always used to try and go for him, maybe animals are better judges than us. That drought period ended with the bushfires. one new young tree is close to the house and unfortunately I'm going to have to cut it down, because eventually it would be 40 or 50m tall.
Al Gore has to take the lion's share of responsibility for bad predictions, because he had such a big impact with the film "an inconvenient truth". He was sure there whould be no glaciers and Florida submerged by now. At a guess, in my lifetime in my hometown tides are 2m higher, not 6. I was there in January 2019 for the hottest day on record 47C. Two otherwise reliable vehicles I drove, both had failures of systems from underbonnet temp. I would say a typical summer heatwave now is about 3c more than in the 70s and 80s. The hottest day of the year might have been 39, now it's usually 42
Predictions for what will happen in future in the tropics have already happened in the far north. my mother still lives in Katherine, where I spent a quite a few years as well. It's also 2-3c higher in the wet season than let's say late 20th C. People who work outdoors or without aircon start at 5am and finish at 2 pm. That was not necessary before, people worked until 5. People trained running, athletics, cycling and boxing at 4-5 pm. At the same time they say the dry season is a lot colder now. Overall, the problem is just a lot more messed up and unpredictable weather everywhere. Back to Katherine, the period in between, wet and dry, September through November known as 'the buildup' is the worst, because it doesn't rain to give relief, but there are clouds so low you think you can hit them with a rock. Then Wet season has a lot of big lightning and thunder.
So as we know, the margin of error for climate science is so wide, with so little confidence more than ten to twenty years out, that we can't say there is really such a thing as a professional opinion on it. In that case I may as well mention what I suspect.
If we consume 90m barrels of oil daily and the earth's surface is 510m km2 it's a little over 5km2 for every barrel of oil.
If we burn 133m ft2 of natural gas, that's a little under 5km2 for every ft2
If we burn 8bn tons of coal/yr or 22m tons/day, it's about 23km2 for every ton of coal burned.
Roughly trying to standardise this, 200kg of coal for every 5km2.
Wrapping our minds around that to begin with, and taking into consideration that two thirds of the earth is covered by cloud, it seems not impossible that over a hundred years we could slightly raise the temperature of the earth.
CO2 being a greenhouse gas is an open question for me, as I just don't see evidence in practice. Choose a night that's slightly below freezing, -2c and park a car in the open. Close the windows and put a thermometer in the car with a 4hr tealight candle. It should consume a lot of the oxygen and give off a lot of heat over 4 hrs, but that increase in CO2 isn't enough to trap heat and prevent water also freezing inside the car. I don't need to go into how much more CO2 is created by burning than forests and oceans create oxygen now, that's beyond any doubt and evident from the measurements of concentration in air. I'm just not sure of a significant effect on trapping heat.
Life on earth could not have developed and survived for millions of years if the biosphere was not self correcting to stay within a certain range. If it heats up too much, the cloud cover will increase and prevent sunlight entering, thereby cooling down again. Of course a lot of typhoons and floods will happen in the interim. Then there is the procession of the equinox causing the ice ages and interglacial periods with regularity. Looking at what is known, there is regularity to the mini ice ages every few hundred years as well. The next one would counteract man made climate change if it is still happening. I think as soon as we stop burning so much fuel, it will quickly cool down in any case because of heat escaping on clear nights not being replenished. Already, going for a drive just for something to do is a thing of the past for most of us. We don't drive more than we need to now. If the rate of inflation persists, a lot more travel such as air travel vacations and cruise ship or boating will crash. How many people can transition to EV remains to be seen, I'm sure it can not be the current number of cars, or even half as many. Electric scooters for most of us is possible. A Tesla in every driveway is unaffordable, overloads the electric grid and creates an environmental catastrophe in both extraction and disposal.
The fellow in the vids on climate change Kdog posted, noted that the UN says consumer consumption needs to be greatly reduced. He apparently also takes the view govts lie all the time. The great reset is openly promoted by western world leaders and their actions use fear tactics to increase power and control, where there is any crisis such as a virus or climate change. Problem, reaction, solution is always played out. Whether their plans work out or break down, there's going to be an end to this system and its level of pollution. Not to prevent runaway climate change that persists for centuries and causes human extinction, but to preserve resources and thereby power and control.
https://youtu.be/fUI0rAnX3_E
Post by: K-Dog on July 27, 2022, 01:23:32 pm
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-62225696
The audacious PR plot that seeded doubt about climate change
Thirty years ago, a bold plan was cooked up to spread doubt and persuade the public that climate change was not a problem. The little-known meeting - between some of America's biggest industrial players and a PR genius - forged a devastatingly successful strategy that endured for years, and the consequences of which are all around us.
They had an evil genius.
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/EF5E/production/_125987216_1200-harrison.jpg)
Post by: Digwe Must on July 26, 2022, 05:27:09 pm
Quotebut nobody knows for sure.
I have never seen a bear **** in the woods. But I am pretty sure they do.
Cloud formation will pay no attention to human models. Or to our desires.
The nobody knows argument is a smokescreen. In this case it is smoke on the water.
*you know,
Smoke on the water, a fire in the sky
Smoke on the water
I don't know about you, but I deal with the ragged edge of climate change every day. I just came in from the heat where I've been trying to figure out how to drop 100 year old larch trees that are near the house and are dying from last year's heat. I've also been setting up pumps, a 6,000 gallon reservoir and a lot of hose in case we get a fire. If that happens we are the end of a dead end road with no good escape route for a fire crew - so we will be on our own. I used to fight fire, it's done its best to kill me, and I know of what I speak.
My fruit trees are stressed (Especially the small ones planted this year) as are the cool and moisture loving shrubs like black currant and elderberry. I have to put down an older ram that is just too stressed from the heat. That's today. As I've said here before, all of the native tree species here are very stressed with 1 species winked out, another now dying out, and the others in very tough shape. We have a tiny percentage of the wild birds that were here just a decade ago and we are even missing some types of insects.
I'm certainly not denying climate change or how devastating it can be - and we're just getting started. I sure ain't sayin' things are getting better.
My point was that forecasts I saw ten years ago said we would all be dead by now. Perfectly serious people who know a few things got it wrong. Some are still getting it wrong. I tried to show one possible reason why this happened. Or, to put it another way, we ain't dead yet. Other factors that are not being considered in the IPCC forecast are the thinning magnetic field and shifting magnetic poles. More gamma rays are making through the field and they play a part in cloud formation. (That is science not speculation)
By the way, I have seen a bear shitt in the woods and I've had a grizzly shitt on my track in the snow - a big steamy pile. It tends to focus the mind.
Post by: K-Dog on July 26, 2022, 04:22:10 pm
Quote
but nobody knows for sure.
I have never seen a bear **** in the woods. But I am pretty sure they do.
Cloud formation will pay no attention to human models. Or to our desires.
The nobody knows argument is a smokescreen. In this case it is smoke on the water.
*you know,
Smoke on the water, a fire in the sky
Smoke on the water
Post by: Digwe Must on July 26, 2022, 02:10:04 pm
As I understand it, one of the major reasons for the inaccuracy of some climate predictions has been the difficulty in modelling the formation of clouds. The increased evaporation due to an open Arctic ocean will result in more clouds being formed. That apparently is generally agreed upon. After that views diverge. The IPCC does not have the super-computer capacity available (amazing) to account for all of the zillions of factors that go into cloud formation. If the cloud formation in the Arctic was substantial enough it would probably replace some of the albedo lost resulting from diminished ice. A dramatically increased cloud cover would probably also add to more big violent weather further south... but nobody knows for sure.
This from the IPCC:
, “In spite of these
improvements, there has been no apparent narrowing of the
uncertainty range associated with cloud feedbacks in current
climate change simulations.”
Handling the physics and/or the parametrization of clouds in
climate models remains a central difficulty. There is a need for
increased observations. J. Mitchell highlighted the challenge in a
recent paper at the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP)
Workshop on Cloud Properties and Cloud Feedbacks in Largescale Models where he stated that “Reducing the uncertainty in
cloud-climate feedbacks is one of the toughest challenges facing
atmospheric physicists” (Mitchell, 2000)
"Cloud modelling is a particularly challenging scientific
problem because it involves processes covering a very wide range
of space- and time-scales. For example, cloud systems extending
over thousands of kilometres to cloud droplets and aerosols of
microscopic size are all important components of the climate
system. The time-scales of interest can range from hundreds of
years (e.g., future equilibrium climates) to fractions of a second
(e.g., droplet collisions)."
Post by: K-Dog on July 26, 2022, 07:05:24 am
Unlike the human brain, the earth follows laws of physics. The issue of doom in open for analysis. But discussion concerning the reality? Not so much.
https://youtu.be/mVqKnmCLowo
The earth understands math better than people do.
https://youtu.be/lDBGXpGhbiA
The video presenter makes the point that governments will lie to the bittern end. Because there is no upside for them to do otherwise. I agree. The Pentagon has known about peak oil and climate change for decades. Do they act like they know, they do not. But do they know. Yes they do.
Post by: Phil Potts on July 26, 2022, 12:46:22 am
Nothing improving on the climate front.
Does anyone have an expectation otherwise?Quote from: John of WallanMust all be a big scam... A communist conspiracy.. No, its the work of the devil I tells you! End times?
We will deny until the bitter end.
JOW
Does anyone argue that things are getting better? I just realized that deniers are more like, "no, summers are always warm, heatwaves happen in the summer and kill people all the time, we've always had tornadoes and bad weather", and they can just keep saying and believing that right up to the instant they are killed by drowning in a flood or freezing to death on a mountain top where they retreated for cooler weather, all the usual ways people die I suppose. Deniers could just be regular people not paying attention? Or do you think active denial is required?
Look a little harder at his text. JOW makes even God Greta whose name he thinks I took in vain, not just a sceptic but denier.
Everyone is dead two years from now, again. The guy writing that doesnt believe it and can hardly believe anyone else does, but theres still a market for it. This is no different than claiming a date for the rapture and followers doubling down on faith every time it passes. The only end times believer is JOW.
He doesn't allow that you can believe in Jesus and point out how the church can be hijacked for purposes of power and control. Rome made Christianity the official religion of empire to further empires ends. That was just the start.
What I wrote yesterday had nothing to do with climate change.
Post by: FarmGirl on July 25, 2022, 04:47:23 pm
Nothing improving on the climate front.
Does anyone have an expectation otherwise?
Quote from: John of Wallan
Must all be a big scam... A communist conspiracy.. No, its the work of the devil I tells you! End times?
We will deny until the bitter end.
JOW
Does anyone argue that things are getting better? I just realized that deniers are more like, "no, summers are always warm, heatwaves happen in the summer and kill people all the time, we've always had tornadoes and bad weather", and they can just keep saying and believing that right up to the instant they are killed by drowning in a flood or freezing to death on a mountain top where they retreated for cooler weather, all the usual ways people die I suppose. Deniers could just be regular people not paying attention? Or do you think active denial is required?
Post by: John of Wallan on July 25, 2022, 02:18:39 pm
Must all be a big scam... A communist conspiracy.. No, its the work of the devil I tells you! End times?
We will deny until the bitter end.
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
Arctic sea ice July 2022
Blue Ocean Event
A Blue Ocean Event occurs when virtually all sea ice disappears and the surface color changes from white (sea ice) to blue (ocean). According to many, a Blue Ocean Event starts once Arctic sea ice extent falls below 1 million km².
The image on the right shows a trend pointing at zero Arctic sea ice volume by September 2027.
Note that the volume data in the image are averages for the month September — the minimum for each year is even lower. Furthermore, since zero volume implies zero extent, this indicates that a Blue Ocean Event (extent below 1 million km²) could happen well before 2027.
Sea ice concentration
Another measure than sea ice extent or volume is sea ice concentration. The image below, adapted from University of Bremen, shows sea ice concentration on July 22, 2022, with concentration in many areas close to the North Pole down to 0%.
Sea ice thickness and NASA Worldview satellite images
The NASA Worldview satellite images below give a good idea of how much sea ice is still present in the Arctic, or how little, especially north of the North Pole.
The Naval Research Laboratory one-month animation below shows Arctic sea ice thickness up to July 16, 2022, with 8 days of forecasts added.
The above animation shows a dramatic fall in sea ice thickness over a large area. This fall in thickness is mostly due to warm water from the Atlantic Ocean that is melting the sea ice hanging underneath the surface. This is where the sea ice constitutes the latent heat buffer, consuming incoming heat in the process of melting.
The University of Bremen combination image below shows the difference in sea ice thickness between June 1, 2022, June 30, 2022, and July 22, 2022. The images at the center and on the right show large areas where sea ice is less than 20 cm thick, indicating that the latent heat buffer had already disappeared in June 2022, as also discussed further below.
The NASA Worldview combination image below shows the sea ice north of Greenland on July 19, 2022 (top), and on July 22, 2022 (bottom), that even at places where the sea ice once was the thickest, it can melt away rapidly. The mechanism behind this is that, as thick ice breaks off and fragments, it additionally gets heated up from the sides, and this further accelerates the melting as the sea ice breaks up further, into ever smaller pieces.
Ocean heat
On July 19, 2022, the sea surface was as warm as 1.8°C or 35.2°F north of Greenland, as the nullschool.net image below shows.
The above image also shows how cold water (blue) flows down to the east of Greenland, while warm water (green) flows off the west coast of Norway toward to Arctic Ocean, diving under the sea ice north of Svalbard and reaching areas north of Greenland where sea surface temperatures rise above freezing point.
Of the extra heat from Earth's energy imbalance, about 93% ends up in the ocean as increasing ocean heat content (see image below), 3% goes into melting ice, 4% goes into raising temperatures of land and melting permafrost, and less than 1% remains in the atmosphere, as discussed in an earlier post.
[ from earlier post ]
Sea ice has disappeared in the Bering Strait, in part due to warm water from rivers in Alaska, as illustrated by the NOAA image below, which shows sea surface temperatures as high as 18.6°C or 65.48°F.
On July 19, 2022, the sea surface temperature anomaly from 1981-2011 in the Arctic Ocean was as high as 14.0°C or 25.2°F (at green circle), as illustrated by the screenshot below of a nullschool.net image (with text added). In 1981-2011, the sea surface temperature at this spot (at the green circle in the Kara Sea) at this time of year was around freezing point.
The above image also shows a distorted Jet Stream (at 250 hPa) moving over the Arctic ocean, instead of circumventing the Arctic and thus keeping heat out of the Arctic and keeping cold inside the Arctic, as it used to be.
The above NOAA image illustrates how the Gulf Stream is pushing warm water toward the Arctic, with sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic reaching as high as 32.6°C or 90.68°F on July 23, 2022.
Latent heat
Latent heat is heat that is (less and less) going into melting the sea ice. The reason this heat is called latent (hidden) heat, is that it doesn't raise the temperature of the water, but instead gets consumed in the process of melting the ice. Latent heat is energy associated with a phase change, such as the energy consumed when solid ice turns into water (i.e. melting). During a phase change, the temperature remains constant. Sea ice acts as a buffer that absorbs heat, while keeping the temperature at zero degrees Celsius. As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat, so the temperature doesn't rise at the sea surface. The amount of energy absorbed by melting ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero to 80°C.
Once most of the sea ice that was hanging underneath the surface is gone, further heat will still keep moving underneath the sea ice from the Atlantic Ocean and - to a lesser extent - from the Atlantic Ocean into the Arctic Ocean. Without the latent heat buffer, this heat must go elsewhere, i.e. it will typically raise the temperature of the water. The atmosphere will also warm up faster. More evaporation will occur once the sea ice is gone, further warming up the atmosphere.
A 2019 analysis concludes that the latent heat tipping point gets crossed when the sea surface temperature anomaly on the Northern Hemisphere gets higher than 1°C above 20th century's temperature and when there is little or no thick sea ice left. As the image below indicates, the temperature anomaly of 1°C above the 20th century average looks set to be crossed in the course of the year 2021.
[ from the post Arctic Ocean invaded by hot, salty water ]
As the Latent Heat Tipping Point gets crossed, there may still be a thin layer of ice at the surface, at least as long as air temperatures are low enough to keep it frozen and as long as strong winds haven't pushed the sea ice out of the Arctic Ocean. This thin layer of ice will still consume some ocean heat below the surface, but at the same time it acts as a seal, preventing heat from the Arctic Ocean to enter the atmosphere. Even if a lot of sea ice remains, the situation is dangerous, if not even more dangerous. The continuing La Niña could cause a lot of thin sea ice to remain at the surface of the Arctic Ocean this year. The more sea ice remains, the less ocean heat can be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, which means that more heat remains in the Arctic Ocean.
One huge danger is that, as the buffer disappears that until now has consumed huge amounts of ocean heat, more heat will reach methane hydrates at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, causing them to get destabilized and resulting in releases of methane from these hydrates and from free gas underneath that was previously sealed by the hydrates.
As the latent heat buffer of the sea ice underneath the surface disappears, more of this heat could then reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, threatening eruptions to occur of seafloor methane (from hydrates and from free gas underneath the hydrates). The methane could similarly push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic, and globally over the next few years.
[ feedback #14: Latent Heat ]
The above 2014 image, from the feedbacks page, shows three of the numerous feedbacks that are accelerating warming in the Arctic. Feedback #1 is the albedo feedback. Feedback #14 refers to the loss of the Latent Heat Buffer and warming of the Arctic Ocean. Feedback #2 refers to methane releases.
Heatwaves look set to continue on the Northern Hemisphere, extending heat over the Arctic Ocean and thus affecting Arctic sea ice from above, while warm water from rivers will cause more melting at the surface, and while rising ocean heat will continue to cause more melting of the ice underneath the surface. If this continues, we can expect a new record low for sea ice in September 2022 and the joint loss of the latent heat buffer and the loss of albedo could push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic, while the additional methane could similarly push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic, and globally over the next few years.
[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]
Conclusion
In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly in the Arctic soon, due to sea ice loss in combination with an upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots, with the potential to drive humans extinct as early as in 2025, while temperatures would continue to skyrocket in 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do now is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
Links
• Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html
• Naval Research Laboratory
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html
• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser
• NASA Worldview satellite
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov
• NOAA - sea surface temperature
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html
• nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net
• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html
• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html
• Latent Heat Buffer
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html
• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html
• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html
• Cataclysmic Alignment
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html
• Human Extinction by 2025?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/07/human-extinction-by-2025.html
• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
Post by: RE on July 25, 2022, 12:26:43 am
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jul/24/north-eastern-us-record-breaking-heat-health-warnings
North-eastern US endures record-breaking heat
One heat-related death reported in New York while authorities in Philadelphia extend health emergency declaration
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zs8ZNa73OS4
RE
Post by: RE on July 25, 2022, 12:19:41 am
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/oak-fire-yosemite-national-park-california-evacuation-orders/
Wildfire near Yosemite National Park explodes in size, forces thousands of evacuations
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on July 24, 2022, 06:14:15 am
It stinks of anti-Cuban propaganda.
Correct. The Cubans proved remarkably resilient after the Collapse of the Soviet Union. Havana began growing 80% of the produce it consumed in the city. Not a regime I would care to live under - but the people have proven themselves as innovative and tough as any.
Post by: K-Dog on July 23, 2022, 11:30:38 pm
They'll need more than Plastics to solve these problems.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/americas/cuba-diesel-shortages-intl-latam/index.html
Starved for fuel and broiling in the heat, Cuba faces deepening energy crisis
RE
Well, they are one of those old school peak oil stories of how to survive it. So 15 years or so later, we're learning how long it takes for the full effects to be seen and what they look like. Unfortunately, and like Sri Lanka, it is more an economic consequence more than a running out consequence.
And they have the t-shirt to prove it.
The article mentions the government did not produce enough crude. Interesting since Cuba has no crude.
It stinks of anti-Cuban propaganda.
Post by: RE on July 23, 2022, 09:13:45 pm
https://apnews.com/article/wildfires-fires-california-evacuations-department-of-forestry-and-fire-protection-3b924a9d041b37acdc57e4b4eb8a64fe
Thousands ordered to flee California wildfire near Yosemite
RE
Post by: FarmGirl on July 23, 2022, 03:48:46 pm
They'll need more than Plastics to solve these problems.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/americas/cuba-diesel-shortages-intl-latam/index.html
Starved for fuel and broiling in the heat, Cuba faces deepening energy crisis
RE
Well, they are one of those old school peak oil stories of how to survive it. So 15 years or so later, we're learning how long it takes for the full effects to be seen and what they look like. Unfortunately, and like Sri Lanka, it is more an economic consequence more than a running out consequence.
Post by: Phil Potts on July 23, 2022, 03:21:35 pm
Guess Brit Upper Lips aren't so stiff anymore.
https://slate.com/human-interest/2022/07/europe-heat-wave-london-record-advice-madness.html
London’s hottest day ever brought on madness that far exceeded the temperature.
RE
Now is the time for Roger to snap his fingers.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetimes.co.uk%2Fimageserver%2Fimage%2Fmethode%252Ftimes%252Fprod%252Fweb%252Fbin%252F97a53f94-0bcf-11ea-800a-ac7a27c0f5a9.jpg%3Fcrop%3D2588%252C1456%252C226%252C400%26resize%3D2400&f=1&nofb=1)
Because super-gluing your arse to melted pavement is impossible.
And crisis-capitalists won't have it !
https://www.olivegroveoundle.co.uk/
The London match girl shivering to death outside the window story needs a little rework.
Those are some sobering numbers
Post by: RE on July 23, 2022, 01:26:20 pm
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/21/americas/cuba-diesel-shortages-intl-latam/index.html
Starved for fuel and broiling in the heat, Cuba faces deepening energy crisis
RE
Post by: K-Dog on July 23, 2022, 11:50:00 am
I added on to my above post but you have to be on my website to see it. I invite everybody to take a look.
https://chasingthesquirrel.com/
;D
Very impressive K-Dog. As usual, good stuff. I would sign up if I knew how - but being inept with this stuff makes it a challenge.
The count on mammals drew my attention. You say 96% of all mammals are livestock or human. The ecowatch article says 96% of all mammal biomass - which is a bit different. That I can believe. When it comes to a total mammal headcount there can be hundreds or thousands of rodents in a relatively small area.
Anyway - very cool, keep up the good work.
Thank You,
Right you are about the biomass. I need to rework that area. Regardless the concept is - too many of the wrong kind of people for the Earth. So it goes.
Registering for Dogchat is not hard. An email you can check, a password, and an image for your avatar. That is all
I will not sell your soul to Satan if you register.
Post by: K-Dog on July 23, 2022, 10:51:52 am
The religion of money says no to rational solutions that would cost more. People kill for such shitt.
Strong plastic made from waste biomass degrades into sugar or what might have been
Quote
Made from inexpensive materials, this plastic withstands high temperatures and blocks food-damaging gases just like conventional plastics used for food and drink packaging.
https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/2022/07/strong-plastic-made-from-waste-biomass-degrades-into-sugar/
Here is a leaf 3-d printed from the plastic.
(https://www.anthropocenemagazine.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/07/sugar-plastic.jpg)
Now, isn't that sweet or what?
https://youtu.be/eaCHH5D74Fs
the religion of money and perpetual growth says no
Post by: Digwe Must on July 22, 2022, 08:57:26 pm
I added on to my above post but you have to be on my website to see it. I invite everybody to take a look.
https://chasingthesquirrel.com/
;D
Very impressive K-Dog. As usual, good stuff. I would sign up if I knew how - but being inept with this stuff makes it a challenge.
The count on mammals drew my attention. You say 96% of all mammals are livestock or human. The ecowatch article says 96% of all mammal biomass - which is a bit different. That I can believe. When it comes to a total mammal headcount there can be hundreds or thousands of rodents in a relatively small area.
Anyway - very cool, keep up the good work.
Post by: K-Dog on July 22, 2022, 06:01:04 pm
https://chasingthesquirrel.com/
;D
Post by: K-Dog on July 22, 2022, 04:06:24 pm
Guess Brit Upper Lips aren't so stiff anymore.
https://slate.com/human-interest/2022/07/europe-heat-wave-london-record-advice-madness.html
London’s hottest day ever brought on madness that far exceeded the temperature.
RE
Now is the time for Roger to snap his fingers.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thetimes.co.uk%2Fimageserver%2Fimage%2Fmethode%252Ftimes%252Fprod%252Fweb%252Fbin%252F97a53f94-0bcf-11ea-800a-ac7a27c0f5a9.jpg%3Fcrop%3D2588%252C1456%252C226%252C400%26resize%3D2400&f=1&nofb=1)
Because super-gluing your arse to melted pavement is impossible.
And crisis-capitalists won't have it !
https://www.olivegroveoundle.co.uk/
The London match girl shivering to death outside the window story needs a little rework.
Post by: RE on July 22, 2022, 12:34:31 am
https://slate.com/human-interest/2022/07/europe-heat-wave-london-record-advice-madness.html
London’s hottest day ever brought on madness that far exceeded the temperature.
RE
Post by: K-Dog on July 19, 2022, 11:05:30 am
Sacre Bleu!Where's my A/C?
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/18/energy/europe-gas-crisis-heatwave/index.html
Europe braces for a potential gas crisis as historic heatwave boosts demand
RE
40C in London
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/london/uk-london-met-office-weather-warnings-heatwave-forecast-latest-news-schools-offices-sleep-b1013189.html%3famp
Sticky Buns
Post by: Phil Potts on July 19, 2022, 04:06:48 am
Sacre Bleu!Where's my A/C?
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/18/energy/europe-gas-crisis-heatwave/index.html
Europe braces for a potential gas crisis as historic heatwave boosts demand
RE
40C in London
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/london/uk-london-met-office-weather-warnings-heatwave-forecast-latest-news-schools-offices-sleep-b1013189.html%3famp
Post by: RE on July 19, 2022, 12:39:13 am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/18/energy/europe-gas-crisis-heatwave/index.html
Europe braces for a potential gas crisis as historic heatwave boosts demand
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on July 08, 2022, 07:47:58 am
"Though the summer season of 2022 is young, parts of the nation already have experienced punishingly high temperatures, extreme drought, wildfires, severe storms, flooding or some combination. Projections from federal agencies suggest more abnormally hot weather, an expansion of drought and well above average wildfire and hurricane activity in the months ahead..."
"The consequences of scorching daytime temperatures and nights without relief were on vivid display last year, when a historic heat wave in the Pacific Northwest sent temperatures climbing more than 30 degrees higher than average. Portland broke records three days in a row, peaking at 116 degrees. According to official estimates, the heat wave killed nearly 200 people in Oregon and Washington.
“Our imagination for what the impact could be has been completely changed,” said Steven Mitchell, medical director of the emergency department at Harborview Medical Center in Seattle.
“So many of us saw a career’s worth of heat stroke and heat illness in a matter of hours,” Mitchell said. “We began to treat it like a multi-casualty event."
Those hit hardest, he said, were the most vulnerable — the very old, the very young and low-income residents who had the least access to cooling.
“On the hottest day, we had more calls to our 911 system than at any time in the history of the 911 program,” Mitchell said. “A huge portion of those were for heat-related impacts.”
This year, in our corner of the PNW, it has been cooler and wetter than normal. However, the damage from last year's intense heat is still ongoing. We have Western Larch (larix occidentalis) trees here. One of the few good things the previous owner of this property did was save these trees. In the few acres immediately surrounding the house we have numerous larch that are 95 - 110 years old. Magnificent trees. They are both coniferous and deciduous, tall - some 100'+, straight and strong. An excellent wood for construction purposes, in my opinion superior to Douglas fir for many applications.
They're dying now.
All are showing the stress from last year's intense heat and at least half don't look like they will make it. If we'd had another hot, dry year they'd be dead already. The heat killed them. Even the trees immediately around the house that received a great deal of supplemental moisture are dying. The xylem cells that transport water up the trunk of the tree collapse in the extreme heat and don't recover. They don't come back. If enough of them are gone the tree dies. It's happening to forests all over the West.
Of the 5 species of coniferous trees native to this site 1 is effectively gone- the lodgepole pine. 1 is now dying out - the western larch. The other three are in various degrees of decline between bugs, drought and disease. This reflects a significant overall decline in forest health throughout the Western US. Of course, the Western White Pine disappeared from this area decades ago.
If these hills don't have forests, they won't hold water when it does come. We are seeing centuries of intense landscape change in a few decades.
Post by: RE on July 06, 2022, 12:26:47 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3o08T4xN-O4
RE
Post by: RE on July 04, 2022, 12:57:41 am
https://www.npr.org/2022/07/03/1109608235/heavy-rains-floods-prompt-evacuations-of-sydney-suburbs
Heavy rains, floods prompt evacuations of Sydney suburbs
RE
Post by: RE on July 02, 2022, 01:58:01 am
https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/science/2022/07/01/when-the-temperature-hits-70-alaskans-feel-the-heat-and-start-suffering-health-impacts/
When the temperature hits 70, Alaskans feel the heat — and start suffering health impacts
RE
Post by: RE on June 30, 2022, 12:38:56 am
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-61976937
Japan swelters in its worst heatwave ever recorded
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGy9uomagO4
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on June 28, 2022, 06:10:16 pm
When it happens it may well mean we dont grow cereal crops in Northern Hemisphere... Now thats a shortage we will all take notice of.
Are a few saying its not going to be that bad, but I cant find too many people saying its going to be consequence free.
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
MONDAY, JUNE 20, 2022
Arctic sea ice June 2022 - why the situation is so dangerous
Arctic sea ice extent has fallen strongly in June 2022. On June 22, 2022, Arctic sea ice extent was among the lowest on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the above image, adapted from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC Chartic).
The image below, from an animation by Zachary Labe, shows Arctic sea ice extent up to June 20, 2022, based on Vishop data. The yellow line is the year 2022. The white line shows extent for the year 2012, when it reached a record minimum in September. The blue line shows extent the year 2020, when the minimum in September was second lowest.
The image below, adapted from Vishop, shows that on June 23, 2022, global sea ice extent was at a record low for the time of year.
[ adapted from NOAA - click on images to enlarge ]
The fact that sea ice is so low for the time of the year is the more striking as we are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña, which suppresses the temperature rise.
El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, according to NOAA and as also illustrated by the NOAA image below, so the upcoming El Niño can be expected to occur soon.
The NOAA image below indicates that going from the bottom of a La Niña to the peak of an El Niño could make a difference of more than half a degree Celsius (0.5°C or 0.9°F).
Furthermore, the rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C (0.27°F). The next El Niño looks set to line up with a high peak in sunspots, in a cataclysmic alignment that could push up the temperature enough to cause dramatic sea ice loss in the Arctic, resulting in runaway temperature rise by 2026.
The NSIDC compilation below illustrates how much multi-year sea ice has already declined over the years. The top panel shows the age of Arctic sea ice for the March 12 to 18 period in (a) 1985 and (b) 2022. The oldest ice, greater than 4 years old, is in red. Plot (c) shows the timeseries from 1985 through 2022 of percent cover of the Arctic Ocean domain (inset, purple region) by different sea ice ages during the March 12 to 18 period.
On June 18, 2022, Arctic sea ice volume was among the lowest on record for the time of year, as illustrated by the image below, adapted from Polarportal.
A Blue Ocean Event occurs when virtually all sea ice disappears and the surface color changes from white (sea ice) to blue (ocean). According to many, a Blue Ocean Event starts once Arctic sea ice extent falls below 1 million km².
The image on the right shows a trend pointing at zero Arctic sea ice volume by September 2027.
Note that the volume data in the image are averages for the month September — the minimum for each year is even lower. Furthermore, since zero volume implies zero extent, this indicates that a Blue Ocean Event (extent below 1 million km²) could happen well before 2027.
The Naval Research Laboratory one-month animation below shows Arctic sea ice thickness up to June 18, 2022, with 8 days of forecasts added.
The above animation shows a dramatic fall in sea ice thickness over a large area, while sea ice is disappearing altogether in some places. This fall in thickness is mostly due to warm water from the Atlantic Ocean that is melting the sea ice hanging underneath the surface. This is where the sea ice constitutes the latent heat buffer, consuming incoming heat in the process of melting.
The University of Bremen image below also shows sea ice thickness, on June 27, 2022. The image shows a large areas where sea ice is less than 20 cm thick.
The NASA Worldview image below shows the situation on June 24, 2022. Plenty of water is showing up as close as 200 km to the North Pole.
Also view the NASA Worldview animation comparing sea ice at June 24 and 25, 2022 at facebook.
Close to the coast of Siberia, where much of the sea ice has disappeared altogether, the decline is due for a large part to warm water from rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean.
Sea ice has also disappeared altogether in the Bering Strait, for a great part due to warm water from rivers in Alaska, especially the Yukon River, the Kuskokwim River and the Copper River, as illustrated by the above NOAA image, which shows sea surface temperatures as high as 15.6°C or 60.08°F.
On June 10, 2022, the sea surface temperature anomaly from 1981-2011 in the Bering Strait was as high as 15.5°C or 27.9°F (at green circle), illustrated by the above nullschool.net image. In 1981-2011, the Bering Strait was still largely frozen at this time of year.
The NOAA image below illustrates how the Gulf Stream is pushing warm water toward the Arctic, with sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic reaching as high as 32.1°C or 89.78°F on June 19, 2022.
Heatwaves look set to continue on the Northern Hemisphere, extending heat over the Arctic Ocean and thus affecting Arctic sea ice from above, while warm water from rivers will cause more melting at the surface, and while rising ocean heat will continue to cause more melting of the ice underneath the surface. If this continues, we can expect a new record low for sea ice in September 2022 and the joint loss of the latent heat buffer and the loss of albedo will push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic.
Keep in ind that even if a lot of sea ice remains, the situation is dangerous, if not even more dangerous. The continuing La Niña could cause a lot of thin sea ice to remain at the surface of the Arctic Ocean this year. The more sea ice remains, the less ocean heat can be transferred from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere over the Arctic Ocean, which means that more heat remains in the Arctic Ocean. As the latent heat buffer of the sea ice underneath the surface disappears, more of this heat could then reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, threatening eruptions to occur of seafloor methane (from hydrates and from free gas underneath the hydrates). The methane could similarly push up temperatures dramatically over the Arctic, and globally over the next few years.
[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]
Conclusion
In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly in the Arctic soon, due to sea ice loss in combination with an upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots, with the potential to drive humans extinct as early as in 2025, while temperatures would continue to skyrocket in 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do now is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
Links
• NSIDC - Charctic
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph
• Zachary Labe - sea ice extent and concentration
https://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-extentconcentration
• Vishop sea ice data
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
• NSIDC - Springtime in the Arctic
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2022/05/springtime-in-the-arctic
• NOAA - ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html
• Cataclysmic Alignment
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html
• Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html
• Polarportal
https://polarportal.dk/en/sea-ice-and-icebergs/sea-ice-thickness-and-volume
• Naval Research Laboratory
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html
• University of Bremen
https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/databrowser
• NASA Worldview satellite
https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov
• NOAA - sea surface temperature
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/contour/index.html
• nullschool
https://earth.nullschool.net
• Albedo, latent heat, insolation and more
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html
• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html
• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
Post by: RE on June 19, 2022, 12:18:19 am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/17/weather/yellowstone-river-flooding-historic/index.html
Yellowstone River flooding is a 1 in 500-year event, US Geological Survey says
RE
Post by: RE on June 18, 2022, 01:02:36 am
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61838543
Europe heatwave: Outdoor events banned in parts of France
RE
Post by: RE on June 18, 2022, 12:59:20 am
https://apnews.com/article/floods-climate-science-weather-montana-a09d1f476d806e064b3fcf57dcaae14a
From dry to deluge, how heavy snow, rain flooded Yellowstone
RE
Post by: RE on June 13, 2022, 12:22:46 am
https://www.iflscience.com/antarctica-and-greenlands-ice-sheet-melting-on-track-with-worstcase-scenario-forecasts-57197
Antarctica And Greenland's Ice Sheet Melting On Track With "Worst-Case Scenario" Forecasts
RE
Post by: RE on June 09, 2022, 12:56:21 am
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/07/climate/salt-lake-city-climate-disaster.html
As the Great Salt Lake Dries Up, Utah Faces An ‘Environmental Nuclear Bomb’
RE
Post by: RE on June 08, 2022, 12:30:34 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdO6LF-wO_g
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on June 07, 2022, 07:07:21 pm
Dont look up...
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2022/06/cataclysmic-alignment.html
Text:
Cataclysmic Alignment
Record high carbon dioxide
The concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere just broke two records. CO₂ was 421.46 in the week starting May 22, 2022, at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, while CO₂ was 420.99 ppm in May 2022.
Earlier, very high daily and hourly measurements were recorded at Mauna Loa, as illustrated by the image below, showing one hourly measurement of 424 ppm (on May 28, 2022), as well as sequences of daily measurements in the green insets.
The image below shows carbon dioxide concentration rising over the past few years, with surface flask measurements well above 422 ppm at Mauna Loa recently.
Carbon dioxide concentration is even higher over the Arctic. The image below shows carbon dioxide approaching 430 ppm at Barrow, Alaska.
To get an idea how much greenhouse gases have risen, a 2021 study points at concentrations of 190 ppm for CO₂, 370-375 ppb for CH₄ and 200-245 ppb for N₂O some 18 ka to 21 ka. By comparison, the MetOp image below shows a global mean methane level that is more than five times as high, i.e. 1945 ppb at 293 mb on May 25, 2022 am.
The MetOp image below shows methane on May 30, 2022 pm, at 742 mb, which is much closer to sea level.
The NOAA 20 image below shows high nitrous oxide levels over the Arctic on June 3, 2022 pm at 1000 mb.
Greenhouse gas levels are very high and there are many further indications that a huge temperature rise could take place over the next few years.
Cataclysmic alignment of El Niño and sunspots
The trigger for such a huge rise could be a cataclysmic alignment of the upcoming El Niño with a high number of sunspots, which look set to reach maximum impact around July 2025.
We are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA. This suppresses the temperature rise.
El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, according to NOAA and as also illustrated by the NOAA image below, so the upcoming El Niño can be expected to occur soon.
The above NOAA image shows that the difference in temperature between the bottom of a La Niña and the peak of an El Niño can be more than half a degree Celsius (0.5°C or 0.9°F).
A huge temperature rise looks set to unfold soon, first of all in the Arctic, triggered by the combined impact of an upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots.
Sunspots are currently well above what NOAA predicted, as illustrated by the image on the right, adapted from NOAA.
The more sunspot, the more the temperature goes up. The rise in sunspots from May 2020 to July 2025 could make a difference of some 0.15°C (0.27°F).
The next El Niño looks set to line up with a high peak in sunspots, in a cataclysmic alignment that could push up the temperature enough to cause dramatic sea ice loss in the Arctic, resulting in runaway temperature rise by 2026.
A huge temperature rise in the Arctic
There are many further indications that we're on the brink of a huge temperature rise in the Arctic.
Ocean heat that enters the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean keeps rising.
As a result, several tipping points threaten to be crossed in the Arctic soon, as described in an earlier post, including the latent heat tipping point and a Blue Ocean Event, starting when Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 1 million km².
[ from the Extinction page ]
As temperatures keep rising in the Arctic, changes to the Jet Stream look set to intensify, resulting in loss of terrestrial albedo in the Arctic that could equal the albedo loss resulting from sea ice decline.
Further feedbacks include permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases (particularly CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O).
Global temperature rise
This would in turn also cause more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise, especially in the Arctic, where vast amounts of methane are contained in sediments at the seafloor and where there is very little hydroxyl in the air to break down the methane.
Temperatures looks set to rise further, due to falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a further temperature rise due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place.
As the temperature keeps rising, further self-reinforcing feedbacks will kick in with more ferocity such as an increase in water vapor globally combined with a decrease in lower clouds decks, further increasing the temperature, as described at the clouds feedback page.
Altogether, the global temperature could rise by more than 18°C above pre-industrial, as illustrated by the image on the right from the Extinction page.
[ from earlier post ]
Human extinction by 2025?
[ from earlier post ]
An April 2022 analysis found that the temperature rise from pre-industrial to March 2022 could be as much as 2.35°C. When adding 0.65°C for the joint impact of the upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots, the rise could be as much as 3°C by 2025, as also depicted in the image on the right, from that same analysis.
A 2018 study (by Strona & Bradshaw) indicates that most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. Humans, who depend for their survival on many other species, will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.
Conclusion
In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly soon, driving humans extinct as early as in 2025, while temperatures could skyrocket in 2026, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. At the same time, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
In the video below, Jennifer Hynes and Sandy Schoelles discuss the situation.
Post by: K-Dog on May 23, 2022, 03:42:14 pm
Quote
NOAA data show a carbon dioxide level of 421.13 parts per million (ppm) for the week starting May 8, 2022, a new record high since measurements started at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. As the image below also shows, very high daily levels were reached recently, as high as 422.04 ppm.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fthepaintsesh.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2018%2F04%2F30605095_1601247153330614_6700067952906993664_n.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
* Potent weed will make you worry about the extra CO2 you put in the air smoking the weed. That is how you know it is good.
Post by: John of Wallan on May 22, 2022, 01:19:42 pm
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
MONDAY, MAY 16, 2022
Carbon dioxide reaches another record high
NOAA data show a carbon dioxide level of 421.13 parts per million (ppm) for the week starting May 8, 2022, a new record high since measurements started at Mauna Loa, Hawaii. As the image below also shows, very high daily levels were reached recently, as high as 422.04 ppm.
Greenhouse gas levels are even higher further north. Very high carbon dioxide levels were recorded recently at Barrow, Alaska, approaching 430 ppm.
Furthermore, very high methane levels were recorded recently at Barrow, Alaska, including many at levels well over 2000 parts per billion (ppb).
The trigger: El Niño and sunspots
El Niños typically occur every 3 to 5 years, according to NOAA and as illustrated by the NOAA image below, so the upcoming El Niños can be expected to occur within the next few years.
As also illustrated by the NOAA image on the right, we are currently in the depths of a persistent La Niña and this suppresses current temperatures.
A huge temperature rise in the Arctic looks set to unfold soon, triggered by the combined impact of an upcoming El Niño and a peak in sunspots.
Sunspots are currently well above what NOAA predicted, as illustrated by the image below on the right.
Huge temperature rise in Arctic
Additionally, greenhouse gas levels are very high over the Arctic, while the ocean heat that enters the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean keeps rising.
As a result, several tipping points threaten to be crossed in the Arctic soon, as described in an earlier post, including the latent heat tipping point and a Blue Ocean Event, starting when Arctic sea ice extent will fall below 1 million km².
As temperatures keep rising in the Arctic, changes to the Jet Stream look set to intensify, while loss of terrestrial albedo in the Arctic could equal the albedo loss resulting from sea ice decline.
[ from the Extinction page ]
Further feedbacks include permafrost degradation, both terrestrial and on the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, which looks set to cause huge releases of greenhouse gases (particularly CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O).
Global temperature rise
This would in turn also cause more water vapor to enter the atmosphere, further speeding up the temperature rise, especially in the Arctic, where vast amounts of methane are contained in sediments at the seafloor and where there is very little hydroxyl in the air to break down the methane.
Temperatures looks set to rise further due to the falling away of sulfate aerosols, while there could be a further temperature rise due to releases of other aerosols that have a net warming impact, such as black and brown carbon, which can increase dramatically as more wood burning and forest fires take place.
As the temperature keeps rising, further self-reinforcing feedbacks will kick in with more ferocity such as an increase in water vapor globally combined with a decrease in lower clouds decks, further increasing the temperature, as described at the clouds feedback page.
Altogether, the global temperature could rise by more than 18°C above pre-industrial, as illustrated by the image on the right from the Extinction page.
Conclusion
In conclusion, temperatures could rise strongly by 2026, resulting in humans going extinct, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026.
At the same time, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
Links
• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, Recent Daily
Average CO₂ at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, U.S.
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends
• NOAA - Global Monitoring Laboratory, at Barrow, Alaska, U.S.
https://gml.noaa.gov/dv/iadv/graph.php?code=BRW&program=ccgg&type=ts
• Arctic Hit By Ten Tipping Points
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2020/04/arctic-hit-by-ten-tipping-points.html
• NOAA - El Niño
https://www.noaa.gov/education/resource-collections/weather-atmosphere/el-nino#:~:text=An%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%20condition%20occurs,every%203%20to%205%20years.
• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202204/supplemental/page-4
• Sunspots
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/sunspots.html
• NOAA - sunspots
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
• Latent heat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html
• Blue Ocean Event
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/blue-ocean-event.html
• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html
• Aerosols
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html
• Clouds feedback and tipping point
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/clouds-feedback.html
• Jet Stream
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/jet-stream.html
• The Importance of Methane
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/the-importance-of-methane-in-climate.html
• When Will We Die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
Post by: Digwe Must on May 22, 2022, 10:03:59 am
How climate is influencing the Oz elections. Actually the article seems to be more about the insurance crisis in Australia worsening due to climate change. I see that also happening in the US. We had to switch homeowners insurance companies last year because we are in a very dangerous wildfire zone and the company we'd been using refused to continue writing us a policy. The new company is - of course - much more expensive.
Post by: K-Dog on May 19, 2022, 11:02:11 am
What's the Over-Under for Atlantic Hurricanes this year? I'll say 25.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-loop-current-is-forecasting-a-monster-atlantic-hurricane-season
A Monster Hurricane Season Is Coming—and Here’s the Culprit
RE
Not that many but the trend is clear.
(https://img.thedailybeast.com/image/upload/c_crop,d_placeholder_euli9k,h_1020,w_1220,x_0,y_0/dpr_1.5/c_limit,w_690/fl_lossy,q_auto/50-years-of-atlantic-hurricanes_i2kgpi)
Post by: RE on May 19, 2022, 05:25:51 am
https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-loop-current-is-forecasting-a-monster-atlantic-hurricane-season
A Monster Hurricane Season Is Coming—and Here’s the Culprit
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on May 18, 2022, 05:55:02 am
[https://www.hcn.org/articles/south-drought-yes-the-drought-really-is-that-bad?utm_campaign=Rockies%20Today&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter
Across the West, state leaders are bracing against the long-term impacts of aridification. In late April, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown added four additional counties to the ‘drought emergency’ tally — now, half the state is in a state of emergency. Further south, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, which gets water to millions of city dwellers, restricted outdoor water use for the first time ever. In Colorado, the U.S. Department of Agriculture designated the entire state a “primary natural disaster area” due to the threat of drought — also considered an ‘unprecedented’ move. The Southwest, as a whole, has been hit hard with dry conditions: Utah and New Mexico both issued separate emergency declarations, one for water scarcity and the other for wildfire.
It's only May.
Post by: RE on May 09, 2022, 12:02:47 am
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-61330302
Heatwave and coal shortage spark India's power nightmare
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on May 08, 2022, 07:09:46 pm
News reports play it down and say India always has heatwaves and this is nothing unusual. All sorts of explanations of hot air moving down from the Northwest. High pressure and wind map confusion. India is nothing Biden wants you to know about.
The beginning of May and hot air is coming from the Northwest. What is wrong with that picture.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fgifimage.net%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F08%2Ftoast-gif-12.gif&f=1&nofb=1)
India could also use some Russian fertilizer. Maybe some solar powered air conditioning?
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fenovatekenergy.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F03%2FEnovatek-3.png&f=1&nofb=1)
No mud hut should be without one.
I was thinking the same thing. While I'm not familiar with indian seasons, I thought first week of may is early for a heatwave in the northern hemisphere.
majority of Indians are underfed at the best of times.
Post by: K-Dog on May 08, 2022, 12:30:53 pm
The beginning of May and hot air is coming from the Northwest. What is wrong with that picture.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fgifimage.net%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F08%2Ftoast-gif-12.gif&f=1&nofb=1)
India could also use some Russian fertilizer. Maybe some solar powered air conditioning?
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fenovatekenergy.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F03%2FEnovatek-3.png&f=1&nofb=1)
No mud hut should be without one.
Post by: RE on May 08, 2022, 11:30:00 am
(https://images.fanpop.com/images/image_uploads/Toast-toast-465217_358_450.jpg)
RE
Post by: K-Dog on May 07, 2022, 10:34:32 pm
Quote
The stifling heat has killed at least 2,300 people in India with most of the deaths located in the southeast states of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana. According to EM-DAT, the International Disaster Database, this heat wave is the fifth deadliest in world history. The most vulnerable populations have been the elderly, the young, and those who work outside, including construction workers. According to media reports, taxi drivers in the city of Kolkata decided to not work between 11am and 4PM during the midst of the heat wave after two drivers died of heat stroke.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/india-heat-wave-kills-thousands
Post by: RE on May 04, 2022, 05:57:47 am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/03/us/lake-powell-emergency-steps-drought-climate/index.html
Lake Powell officials take unprecedented, emergency steps to delay water releases as level plummets
RE
Post by: RE on May 01, 2022, 02:13:45 am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/30/weather/andover-kansas-tornado-saturday/index.html
Dozens of buildings leveled after a powerful tornado tears through Wichita area
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxSarBcsKLU
RE
Post by: RE on April 25, 2022, 12:10:26 am
https://www.rvtravel.com/california-drought-rvt-1049b/
California drought worst in more than 100 years
(https://www.rvtravel.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/drought-full-1049-485x434.jpg)
Lotta overtime coming for the firefighters this year I suspect.
RE
Post by: RE on April 21, 2022, 04:40:52 pm
https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/2022/apr/20/what-we-now-know-they-lied-how-big-oil-companies-betrayed-us-all
‘What we now know … they lied’: how big oil companies betrayed us all
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on April 19, 2022, 08:40:51 am
Maybe they can fly all the equipment up. ::)
Or plant a vineyard.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61093929
Climate change: 'We're making wine in Norway'
"I did an analysis of 25 of the top places in the world, growing grapes, looking at their long term historical temperature data," says Dr Jones "And every single place warmed during their growing season. And during the winters, there were no places that were not warming, there were no places that were cooling."
Growing grapes at 61'N
Post by: RE on April 18, 2022, 07:34:06 am
https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/2022/04/16/curious-alaska-what-is-climate-change-doing-to-the-haul-road/
Curious Alaska: What is climate change doing to the haul road?
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on April 11, 2022, 11:06:43 pm
Not good.
JOW
Link:
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/state/tas/2022/04/12/bleaching-deep-waters-off-tasmania/?breaking_live_scroll=1
Text:
LIVE
Bleaching in deep waters off Tasmania
coral-reef-tasmania
Scientists have found signs of heat stress in sponges in deep waters off Tasmania. Photo: CSIRO
Avatar
Ethan James
4h ago
SHARE
LIVE
Scientists have recorded bleaching for the first time in sponges in deep-shelf waters off Tasmania, in what is likely a “canary-in-the-coal-mine” sign of stress from underwater heat waves.
Waters off the island state’s east are considered a global hotspot for marine climate change as the East Australian Current pushes further south.
An Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies (IMAS) study examined surveys of sponges living in the mesophotic zone, known as the “twilight zone”, between well-lit shallow waters and the dark deep ocean.
It found increased sponge bleaching followed marine heatwave events across the east coast region.
Lead author Nick Perkins said it was the first time such bleaching, well-documented in tropical waters, has been observed at this depth.
“One line of ecological thought is that deeper waters don’t get impacted so much … they might actually be cooler refuges for some of the shallower-water species,” he told AAP.
“But this is showing there can be impacts down at depths as well. Maybe those species aren’t so adapted to these extreme events.”
Dr Perkins said there was “a very strong linkage” between warming waters and the bleaching.
Surveys didn’t uncover any mass mortality events but Dr Perkins described the findings as an early warning, “kind of like the canary-in-the-coal-mine … scenario”.
Corals, sponges and red algae in the mesophotic zone, as deep as roughly 150m, play an important role in ocean ecology and pass on food sources.
“These deeper reefs are known to be biodiverse zones and could contain species not yet described by science,” IMAS associate professor Neville Barrett said.
“We still know very little about these systems below diving depths — how they function and how they may respond to climate change.”
The study calls for further research to better understand when sponge bleaching occurs and how long it persists.
“We’re in a global warning hotspot on the east coast of Tasmania. The thing we historically haven’t quantified very well is what is happening in deeper water,” Dr Perkins said.
The cup sponge is widespread, meaning it could prove useful in tracking the impacts of climate change.
Warming waters off Tasmania’s east coast, plus invasive sea urchins, have devastated once-widespread giant kelp forests.
The IMAS study, published in the journal Climate Change Ecology, reviewed surveys taken in Flinders, Freycinet and Huon marine parks between 2009 and 2017.
Post by: K-Dog on April 11, 2022, 10:51:47 am
People on the edge, in particular old people on the edge. The homeless guy at work is not doing so well these days.
Post by: K-Dog on April 11, 2022, 10:35:36 am
Better start building Dykes around Wall Street.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/07/its-happening-now-how-rising-sea-levels-are-causing-a-us-migration-crisis
‘It’s happening now’: how rising sea levels are causing a US migration crisis
RE
I thought there were already a lot of Dykes around Wall St. (sorry - couldn't help myself)
The LGBTQ Thought Police will be coming for you. lol
RE
As long as he does not put a finger in a Dyke he should be Ok.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Ftomremington.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2016%2F01%2FFingerinDyke.png&f=1&nofb=1)
Post by: RE on April 11, 2022, 04:25:25 am
Better start building Dykes around Wall Street.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/07/its-happening-now-how-rising-sea-levels-are-causing-a-us-migration-crisis
‘It’s happening now’: how rising sea levels are causing a US migration crisis
RE
I thought there were already a lot of Dykes around Wall St. (sorry - couldn't help myself)
The LGBTQ Thought Police will be coming for you. lol
RE
Post by: RE on April 11, 2022, 04:12:02 am
https://www.accuweather.com/en/severe-weather/most-far-reaching-severe-weather-tornado-threat-so-far-in-2022-forecast-for-central-us/1169687
Most far-reaching severe weather, tornado threat so far in 2022 forecast for central US
RE
Post by: RE on April 09, 2022, 12:45:26 am
https://abc11.com/2022-hurricane-season-predictions-colorado-state-university-prediction-when-is-what-the-for/11721784/
Above-normal activity predicted for 2022 Atlantic hurricane season
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on April 08, 2022, 07:44:35 am
Better start building Dykes around Wall Street.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/07/its-happening-now-how-rising-sea-levels-are-causing-a-us-migration-crisis
‘It’s happening now’: how rising sea levels are causing a US migration crisis
RE
I thought there were already a lot of Dykes around Wall St. (sorry - couldn't help myself)
Post by: RE on April 08, 2022, 02:44:14 am
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/apr/07/its-happening-now-how-rising-sea-levels-are-causing-a-us-migration-crisis
‘It’s happening now’: how rising sea levels are causing a US migration crisis
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on April 07, 2022, 02:43:59 pm
https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?West
It doesn't look good for us. It's only early April.
Post by: RE on April 05, 2022, 03:24:54 am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/04/weather/tornado-hail-severe-storm-south-monday-wxn/index.html
Round three of tornadoes coming to the South
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1PfVVFq97I
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on March 25, 2022, 11:09:24 pm
Nothing to see here...
All a conspiracy.
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Well, I should have finished my morning coffee before reading this. How many ways are there to end human civilization? We seem to be giving several of them a tryout at the same time. I see the stress of climate change here every day. Maybe it's because I'm out in it much of the time. I know my trees are very stressed, species of birds and insects are missing (it's so quiet in the woods now) and we've had about half of our average winter precip. This is it. We're in it now and I see no way to stop or even mitigate the shock.
Thanks for posting - I guess.
Sorry to stress you mate.
I too am seeing changing weather patterns and overall climate turmoil where previously was relative stability. We worry about our insignificant lives, when really life on earth is being driven to extinction.
When the day is bad, and life's a curse,
Cheer up!
Tomorrow could be worse. ;D
Remember, no matter how bad things are thay can always be worse.
JOW
Post by: Digwe Must on March 24, 2022, 08:13:42 am
Nothing to see here...
All a conspiracy.
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Well, I should have finished my morning coffee before reading this. How many ways are there to end human civilization? We seem to be giving several of them a tryout at the same time. I see the stress of climate change here every day. Maybe it's because I'm out in it much of the time. I know my trees are very stressed, species of birds and insects are missing (it's so quiet in the woods now) and we've had about half of our average winter precip. This is it. We're in it now and I see no way to stop or even mitigate the shock.
Thanks for posting - I guess.
Post by: John of Wallan on March 23, 2022, 05:06:41 pm
All a conspiracy.
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
From a Miocene-like CO2 level of ~420 ppm to irreversible climate change
by Andrew Glikson
As terrestrial adversaries keep pushing the Earth and its inhabitants to within seconds of a nuclear catastrophe, looming through heat waves, extreme fires and flood events is the huge calamity of irreversible global warming.
[ from earlier post ]
Carbon dioxide (CO₂) reached levels well above 420 parts per million (ppm) at Mauna Lao, Hawaii, on February 13 and 14, 2022, as illustrated by the image, from an earlier post.
The image below, adapted from NOAA, shows CO₂ and other greenhouse gases such as methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) rising from 280 ppm CO₂e in 1700 to 504 ppm CO₂e in 2021. This figure of 504 ppm CO₂e could be much higher when applying a short horizon to calculate methane's Global Warming Potential.
CO₂ levels have been rising from ~315 ppm in 1950 to ~419 ppm in 2022, at an average growth rate of some 1.44 ppm/year accelerating to about 2.5 ppm/year recently.
The rate of this CO₂ rise is unprecedented in the Cenozoic (since 65 Ma) record, with perhaps the closest parallel being the aftermath of the K-T dinosaur mass extinction event, when the temperature rose by as much as ~7.5°C. According to Beerling et al. (2002) CO₂ level rose from 350–500 ppm to at least 2,300 ppm within 10,000 years following the K-T impact, at an average rate of ~0.2 ppm/year, significantly less than today's rate.
Above image shows CO₂ on track to reach 575 ppm by 2061, a level commensurate with atmospheric conditions during parts of the Miocene, when the temperatures in central Europe was 20°C higher than today, as also illustrated by the image below, adapted from a 2020 study by Methner et al.
The image below further illustrates that to find CO₂ levels as high as 575 ppm, we have to go back in time millions of year, into the Miocene.
What makes current conditions even more dire is that it's not just carbon dioxide that is rising at a speed unprecedented in history, methane is rising at an even faster pace, as illustrated by the image below, from an earlier post.
Can the current climate trend be arrested, or even reversed?
The current global greenhouse gas trend is leading to one of the largest mass extinctions of species in the geological record, one of the victims being human civilization. The current focus on emission reduction overlooks a major factor, namely the amplifying feedbacks from land and oceans (Steffen et al., 2018). There is a desperate need, in addition to emission reduction, for urgent large-scale sequestration of atmospheric greenhouse gases, and for further action to combat the temperature rise.
The role of amplifying GHG feedbacks from land and oceans, leading to enhanced heating, appears to be neglected in climate negotiations. Amplifying feedbacks include:
an increase in evaporation, raising atmospheric water vapor levels, which enhances the greenhouse gas effect;
a decline in the polar albedo (reflection) due to large-scale lateral and vertical melting of ice;
release of methane from degrading permafrost and from polar sediments;
reduced CO₂ intake by warming oceans. Currently the oceans absorb between 35-42% of all CO₂ and around 90% of the excess heat;
warming, desiccation, deforestation and fires over land areas.
Numerous species have been unable to survive the accelerated global heating following the K-T impact event, nor are many species likely to survive the even higher rate of the of the Anthropocene catastrophe. A connection between climate change and human wars is evident from the accelerated global warming in the wake of the industrial-scale world wars I and II and subsequent industrial developments. It is possible that climate change could have been arrested in the 1960s had global efforts been directed at the time for abrupt cuts in emissions, transformation of agricultural and land clearing practices, and effort at CO₂ drawdown/sequestration. By the onset of the 21st century however, such efforts have hardly been undertaken and could yet turn out to be too late. The repetitions of humanity’s old warlike habits, investing resources in industries of death, genocidal wars associated with intensive carbon emissions, forecasted in “The Fate of the Earth”, yield little promise for a change of direction.
Andrew Glikson
A/Prof. Andrew Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia
Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
Post by: RE on March 23, 2022, 12:39:34 am
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/strong-tornadoes-hail-destructive-winds-possible-week-rcna20842
Thousands remain without power after tornado outbreak in Texas
RE
Post by: RE on March 23, 2022, 12:28:28 am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/22/weather/new-orleans-tornado-wxn/index.html
New Orleans tornado leaves one dead, thousands without power
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on March 17, 2022, 12:17:53 pm
Western drought worsensWe are still in La-nina pattern according to our BOM long range weather forecast: You guys cop dryer than usual while we cop wetter and milder than usual weather patterns here in Eastern states of Tarra Australis.
I'm still dealing with the effects from last year's temperature horror show. Many regional publications have been following the situation. This is from CNN - obviously as diluted as possible - but still some national coverage.
Given the geo-political situation, if this forecast proves correct it could be devastating for global food production numbers. Not to mention the increasing danger from wildfire. I keep cutting and attempting to impound water - but it is ahead of me.
The West's intense multi-year drought is expected to at least continue — if not worsen — in the coming months, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday in its spring outlook.
For the second year in a row, NOAA forecasters are predicting "prolonged, persistent drought in the West where below-average precipitation is most likely," the agency wrote.
Nearly 60% of the Lower 48 was experiencing moderate to exceptional dry conditions this week, the largest area in a decade. In California, which did not get enough much-needed precipitation this winter, extreme drought expanded from 12% of the state to 35% in the past week, according to Thursday's Drought Monitor report.
And there's little to no relief in sight.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/17/us/noaa-drought-spring-outlook-climate/index.html
Been mild summer without heat waves or even usual week or 2 of 40 degrees plus this year, with lots of rain, and right now is very un-seasonally warm, wet and humid. Second year in a row we have had a green summer, and my water tanks are full!
Usually grass and local areas dry out and brown off over summer months and we have high bushfire danger in summer months in SE states. (Mainly Victoria where I am)
Weather patters are weird right now.
If we get an El-nino we will be in trouble. 2 years plus of accelerated growth will be bad for fire.
Long term methane levels still rising as is CO2.
Just as well climate change is a left wing new world order queer communist reptile pizza gate illuminati population control satanic conspiracy.
Hate it to be real: Might make me paranoid..
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
JOW
Post by: Digwe Must on March 17, 2022, 08:55:50 am
I'm still dealing with the effects from last year's temperature horror show. Many regional publications have been following the situation. This is from CNN - obviously as diluted as possible - but still some national coverage.
Given the geo-political situation, if this forecast proves correct it could be devastating for global food production numbers. Not to mention the increasing danger from wildfire. I keep cutting and attempting to impound water - but it is ahead of me.
The West's intense multi-year drought is expected to at least continue — if not worsen — in the coming months, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Thursday in its spring outlook.
For the second year in a row, NOAA forecasters are predicting "prolonged, persistent drought in the West where below-average precipitation is most likely," the agency wrote.
Nearly 60% of the Lower 48 was experiencing moderate to exceptional dry conditions this week, the largest area in a decade. In California, which did not get enough much-needed precipitation this winter, extreme drought expanded from 12% of the state to 35% in the past week, according to Thursday's Drought Monitor report.
And there's little to no relief in sight.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/17/us/noaa-drought-spring-outlook-climate/index.html
Post by: RE on March 09, 2022, 04:29:53 pm
https://youtu.be/oNewKEOby80No newz there. The question is will the cliff edge come in 5 years, 25, 50 or 100?
The big picture. We are (https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.S6SjQlvbv-u1lOpJqICfmAAAAA%26pid%3DApi&f=1) ed.
RE
Post by: K-Dog on March 09, 2022, 04:03:51 pm
The big picture. We are (https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.S6SjQlvbv-u1lOpJqICfmAAAAA%26pid%3DApi&f=1) ed.
Post by: RE on March 01, 2022, 01:42:25 am
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/sydney-told-brace-heavy-rains-floods-one-in-a-one-thousand-year-event-2022-03-01/
Australia steps up flood relief efforts as Sydney braces for heavy rains
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on February 28, 2022, 12:24:02 pm
Like most governments all they did was build back and warn residents about possible dangers.
10 years later same streets with new houses are getting flooded.
Sounds just like the bushfire responses down here....
We will never learn when people and local governments make money out of staying dumb.
Like most disasters the government will step in and hand out my tax money to affected individuals like they had no shared responsibility.
****! I am starting to sound like a crazy libertarian....
JOW
Post by: RE on February 28, 2022, 01:46:02 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ItxtyKGELBQ
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on February 27, 2022, 11:44:06 pm
JOW
Link:
https://thenewdaily.com.au/weather/2022/02/28/lismore-nsw-floods/?breaking_live_scroll=1
Text:
Qld death toll rises as ‘entirely unprecedented’ flooding causes crisis in NSW
lismore floods NSW
Hundreds of people have been rescued in the flood-hit area, with hundreds more still stranded. Photo: AAP
The New Daily
The New Daily
@TheNewDailyAU
2:43pm, Feb 28
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Thousands of people have been ordered to leave their homes as devastating floods hit northern NSW, while a grim discovery takes the Queensland death toll to eight lives lost.
Surf lifesavers on Monday found the bodies of a man in his 50s and his dog in a submerged car in the Currumbin Valley after they apparently drove into floodwaters overnight, police said.
As well as eight deaths, up to three people are missing in Queensland’s “fast and furious” floods, which have damaged thousands of homes and businesses, after a year’s rain fell on parts of the south-east.
Police hold “grave concerns” for two men missing in Brisbane and to the north at Glen Esk, while they’re also looking for a car reportedly swept away at Yatala.
As the south-east Queensland floodwaters appear to have peaked, the crisis has moved south. NSW Emergency Services Minister Stephanie Cook said hundreds of residents in the town of Lismore remained trapped as rivers rose to record levels.
Some people – including pregnant women, the elderly and young children – are stranded on rooftops. There are also reports of people clinging to furniture for safety in the raging waters.
The entire Lismore CBD is under water after days of heavy rain that led to the Wilsons River breaching its levee overnight. In some areas, flooding is up to roof awnings.
“We are presently experiencing very dangerous rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding in north-east NSW. My heart goes out to all families, individuals, communities and our volunteers up on the North Coast at the moment. We are seeing the vision of people stranded, people stuck on roofs of homes,” Ms Cook said.
“Our emergency services are doing everything they can to get to you as quickly as they can. This will continue for several hours.”
She said the Wilson River was at record levels at Lismore – well above the 12.17 metres it reached in 1954.
“The river is presently at 14.36 metres and continuing to rise,” she said.
Ms Cook said teams from every emergency agency in NSW, as well as the Australian Defence Force, were responding.
“There is no gilding the lily here. This is a natural disaster of unprecedented proportions,” she said.
Ms Cook urged anyone in the 12 northern NSW regions where evacuation orders have been made to be prepared to leave at “very, very short notice”. The orders cover about 16,000 people.
There are also another six regions, home to about 14,000 people, where evacuation warnings have been issued.
“The situation is evolving very quickly, it’s changing very quickly, and we do not want your life at risk under those circumstances,” Ms Cook said.
Rain was continuing to fall in the region on Monday afternoon, although it was expected to ease later in the day.
Queensland floods: Toll rises to eight, residents stranded
Lismore Mayor Steve Krieg said earlier hundreds were still trapped amid the flooding in what he called a “dire situation” for the regional city.
“We’re doing our absolute best to co-ordinate everything as best we can with the resources that we have to get everyone out of the low-lying areas,” Mr Krieg told ABC TV on Monday afternoon.
It is something that no one in this area has ever seen before.”
Prime Minister Scott Morrison said federal rescue efforts in Lismore had been hampered by the extreme weather, which was causing problems accessing the town from the air.
“We are somewhat encumbered by the weather system, which does frustrate aerial operations for evacuation,” Mr Morrison said.
“There are reports of many people on roofs, and emergency services who are getting people on roofs, then themselves having to be air evacuated.”
He planned to meet on the “very distressing situation” with the government’s emergency management authority in Canberra on Monday, before further discussions with the national security committee of cabinet on Tuesday.
Premier Dominic Perrottet said there had already been more than 500 flood rescues, and 927 requests for assistance in the past 24 hours.
“Simply because your community has not flooded in the past does not mean that it will not flood over the course of this week,” he said.
“The advice that we have received is we would expect things to get worse.”
Lismore had 181 millimetres of rain in half an hour on Monday and remains the focus of the rescue efforts.
Twenty kilometres north of the town, at Rocky Creek Dam, the SES is directing people below the dam to evacuate to higher ground as “uncontrolled water is spilling over”, amid fears it could burst its banks.
The emergency is also widening, with the Bureau of Meteorology issuing multiple major flood warnings for north-eastern NSW including the Tweed, Richmond, Wilsons, Clarence and Brunswick rivers, and Marshall Creek.
The area affected is vast, with flash-flooding to continue for parts of the northern rivers and mid north coast, including Coffs Harbour and Bowraville, on Monday.
“Rain will continue today and gradually ease in the far north later this afternoon and later this evening for parts of the mid-north coast as the low moves a little further south,” the BOM said.
The SES ordered the town of Mullumbimby to evacuate on Monday morning, with the area threatened by rapidly rising floodwaters from the Brunswick River.
One man died when his Land Cruiser was carried away by floodwaters on the Central Coast, north of Sydney, on Friday and another remains missing in floodwaters in Lismore.
-with AAP
Post by: John of Wallan on February 27, 2022, 11:42:03 pm
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
Albedo loss in Antarctica
As above image shows, Antarctic sea ice extent was only 1.973 million km² on February 23, 2022, the lowest on record since satellite measurements began in 1979.
Earlier, on February 20, 2022, Antarctic sea ice extent was only 1.983 million km². On February 20, 2008, it was 3.783 million km². That's a difference of 1.8 million km², or some 0.36% of the total surface of Earth (which is 510,072,000 km²).
As illustrated by above image, adapted from IPCC AR5, incoming solar radiation at Top Of Atmosphere (TOA) is 340.4 W/m². This 340.4 W/m² is an average. The value varies depending on the seasons, i.e. the more the surface of Earth is facing the Sun, the higher this value will be (see image below, from the insolation page).
The June Solstice in 2021 occurred on June 21, 2021.
Another variable is how many clouds and aerosols are in the sky. Much of this radiation can be reflected or absorbed by the atmosphere and some of the radiation that reaches the surface can also be reflected. Yet, on a cloud-free day, where the sky is clear from aerosols, much of the incoming solar radiation will reach the surface. It further depends on the albedo of the surface, how much will in the end be absorbed or reflected at the surface.
Albedo refers to the reflectivity of the surface. Earth average albedo is 0.3 or 30%. The albedo of sea ice can be as high as 0.9 (i.e. 90% when covered with fresh snow). Currently, albedo of the sea ice is about 0.6 (the sea ice is partly covered with melt pools). Open water has an albedo of 0.06. So, disappearance of the sea ice makes an albedo difference of at least 0.5.
So, when taking half of 340 W/m² and multiplying this by 0.36% (i.e. the part of Earth's surface), that gives a radiative forcing of 0.612 W/m². That would mean that some 0.612 W/m² that was previously reflected (Feb 20, 2008) is now instead absorbed by the ocean (on Feb 20, 2022). If Antarctic sea ice would disappear altogether, that would correspond to another loss of some 0.612 W/m², and together with the difference between 2008 and 2022, that would add up to a total radiative forcing of 1,224 W/m².
That's almost half as much as all human-caused global warming in 2019. As the image below shows, radiative forcing was 2.72 W/m² in 2019 relative to 1750, according to IPCC AR6.
If anyone can add to or improve the above calculation, please add a comment (see box below).
The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.
Links
• NSIDC - Charctic interactive Sea Ice Graph
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph
• Wikipedia - Earth
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth
• IPCC - Figure 2.11 (AR5/WG1/Chapter 2)
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/observations-atmosphere-and-surface/fig2-11_orig-pptx-2
• The global energy balance from a surface perspective - by Martin Wild et al. (2012)
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-012-1569-8
• NASA - Earth albedo
https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/earthfact.html
• Albedo
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/albedo.html
• Insolation
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/insolation.html
• IPCC AR6 WG1 SPM
https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGI_SPM_final.pdf
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
Post by: RE on February 21, 2022, 12:39:27 am
2022 Sea Level Rise Technical Report
Post by: Digwe Must on February 19, 2022, 07:11:26 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwE8d84eQhM
Post by: RE on February 17, 2022, 11:28:51 am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/17/weather/winter-storm-forecast-thursday/index.html
A dynamic winter storm is developing with snow, ice, flooding, extreme winds and the threat of tornadoes
RE
Post by: RE on February 15, 2022, 01:59:43 am
Western US drought worst in a least 1,200 years
Post by: RE on February 14, 2022, 01:13:12 am
Gigantic Expanse of Sea Ice Breaks Free From Antarctica and Disintegrates
Post by: RE on February 12, 2022, 12:24:57 am
https://www.agriculture.com/weather/future-conditions/la-nina-roars-back-more-drought-is-ahead
La Niña roars back; more drought is ahead
RE
Post by: RE on February 09, 2022, 03:50:43 am
The world is on fire and our leaders are failing, poll finds
Post by: K-Dog on February 04, 2022, 02:02:39 pm
Adapt, Adapt, ADAPT! Live with it! Or Die with it.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/03/pacific-north-west-extreme-weather-plans
‘We have to adapt’: US Pacific north-west weighs plans to cope with extreme weather
RE
Adapt, Adapt, ADAPT! Live with it! Or Die with it.
Indeed
Post by: RE on February 04, 2022, 06:16:03 am
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/03/pacific-north-west-extreme-weather-plans
‘We have to adapt’: US Pacific north-west weighs plans to cope with extreme weather
RE
Post by: RE on February 04, 2022, 05:07:46 am
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/power-outages-winter-storm-central-united-states/
Over 300,000 people without power amid massive winter storm
RE
Post by: RE on February 02, 2022, 03:00:21 am
https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/02/weather/winter-snowstorm-midwest-south-northeast-wednesday/index.html
More than 90 million are under winter weather alerts as states from Texas to Maine brace for a treacherous mix of ice and snow
RE
Post by: RE on January 29, 2022, 09:54:34 am
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/01/29/winter-storm-blizzard-warnings-wind-snow-hits-boston-northeast/9267119002/
Over 100K without power, blizzard warnings across Northeast amid powerful winter storm
RE
Post by: RE on January 28, 2022, 12:32:08 pm
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/all/how-high-heat-2021-drove-catastrophic-weather-n1288144
'This is just the beginning': How high heat of 2021 drove catastrophic weather
RE
Post by: RE on January 28, 2022, 12:20:33 am
https://www.fox10phoenix.com/news/tempe-to-build-resilience-hub-to-provide-safe-space-for-residents-during-climate-threats-and-other-emergencies
Tempe to build resilience hub to provide safe space for residents during climate threats and other emergencies
RE
Post by: RE on January 26, 2022, 09:29:26 pm
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/26/weather/noreaster-bomb-cyclone-weekend-storm/index.html
A bomb cyclone with the power of a hurricane will unleash snow and blizzard-like conditions this weekend
RE
Post by: RE on January 26, 2022, 12:09:49 am
This would be a good time to start moving NYC and LA also.
https://apnews.com/article/indonesia-environment-jakarta-joko-widodo-java-0f8b4656f2f690a733f5bed6e1d8d41e
Indonesia’s capital is sinking, polluted and now moving
RE
Post by: RE on January 25, 2022, 02:46:58 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qf0A4tOmPy0
Climate change is wreaking havoc all over the globe. May not be collapsy enough for you, but for the folks in Greece and Turkey, its pretty apparent.
RE
Post by: BuddyJ on January 25, 2022, 02:13:59 pm
Greece? Snowstorm? -14C?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60129827
Greece Snowstorm: Thousands of drivers left stranded as storm hits Athens
RE
Sounds like global collapse alright. Either that or because of a lack of real global collapse, the best we can do is a snowstorm. In winter. That some unprepared drivers got stuck in. Yup.....sheer global collapse terror for sure.
Post by: RE on January 25, 2022, 08:16:41 am
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60129827
Greece Snowstorm: Thousands of drivers left stranded as storm hits Athens
RE
Post by: RE on January 22, 2022, 12:08:56 am
https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/snow-ice-bears-down-on-carolinas-and-virginia/1128772
Winter storm packing snow and ice hit Southeast, mid-Atlantic coast
RE
Post by: RE on January 20, 2022, 06:49:16 pm
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/01/20/winter-weather-advisory-schools-closed-sleet-snow-east-south/6589949001/
Dangerous winter storm, bitter cold rolls across winter-weary East
RE
Post by: RE on January 20, 2022, 02:33:15 am
https://www.the-sun.com/news/4495318/winter-snow-storm-week-forecast-warning-new-york/
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on January 17, 2022, 09:04:53 pm
Also has a podcast to listen to.
JOW
Link:
https://www.theage.com.au/please-explain/what-is-the-impact-of-the-maritime-heatwave-20220118-p59p4c.html
Text:
What is the impact of the maritime heatwave?
Nathanael Cooper
By Nathanael Cooper
January 18, 2022 — 12.56pm
Earlier this month the world’s oceans recorded their hottest temperatures in more than 60 years.
On one level, that sharp bite of cold when you first go for a dip in the ocean might be easier to cope with; on a grander scale, the impact on marine ecosystems and global weather patterns is profound.
In December, the ocean off sydney peaked more than 3 degrees above average, and temperatures remain above average in Sydney and Melbourne.
The temperature of the ocean impacts everything from marine life relied on by ocean communities for fishing; to the Great Barrier Reef’s ongoing crisis to the stability of fragile arctic and antarctic ecosystems; to more significant weather events like cyclones and floods.
Today on Please Explain, environment reporter Laura Chung joins Nathanael Cooper to look at the impact of the recent heating of the ocean.
Our supporters power our newsrooms and are critical for the sustainability of news coverage.
Becoming a subscriber also gets you exclusive behind-the-scenes content and invitations to special events. Click on the links to subscribe to The Sydney Morning Herald or The Age.
Post by: RE on January 17, 2022, 01:48:09 am
At 120F with no A/C, the timeline is not very long. Using my Sous Vide machine, 120F is what I cook a Ribeye to for a nice Rare Steak. Takes about an hour.
https://scitechdaily.com/southern-hemisphere-scorchers-summer-heatwaves-south-of-the-equator/
Southern Hemisphere Scorchers: Summer Heatwaves South of the Equator
(https://scitechdaily.com/images/Australia-Temperature-January-2022-Annotated.jpg)
RE
Post by: RE on January 16, 2022, 11:57:49 am
As expected hundreds of car wrecks, dozens of road closures and 100s of 1000s of blackouts so far. Hasn't even made it up the East Coast yet.
https://weather.com/news/news/2022-01-16-winter-storm-izzy-live-updates
Winter Storm Izzy Live Updates: Hundreds of Vehicle Crashes Reported, Residents Told to Stay Home, Power Outages Rising
RE
Post by: RE on January 16, 2022, 06:47:12 am
As for the rest of your post, it's typical of your problem with tense. Back on ignore.
RE
Post by: RE on January 16, 2022, 12:36:23 am
https://apnews.com/article/business-weather-south-america-buenos-aires-argentina-6ac6df7c3e27a42b8d24b3d65d2c2d0f
Power fails again as Argentine capital swelters in heat wave
RE
Post by: RE on January 15, 2022, 06:01:46 pm
That's not the point though. The point is the frequency and severity of these events now. They occur much more often, just a week ago the I-95 got shut down. I-80 & I-90 got shut down a couple of weeks earlier when the Atmospheric River hit the West Coast. This kind of shyt plays havoc with logistics. Supply Chains are already disrupted due to Covid and labor shortages. 1 problem piles on the next.
On top of that, the typical 4 Wheel car driver is an idiot when it comes to driving in this kind of weather, particularly in southern states. They also don't generally have the equipment to clear it fast enough. So then the linemen can't get moving to restring the wires. Power Outages can go for days, even weeks.
Once in while, OK. Every week or 2? It makes a big mess.
RE
Post by: RE on January 15, 2022, 02:40:15 am
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/14/argentina-swelters-under-record-heat-wave
https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022/01/australia-ties-southern-hemispheres-all-time-heat-record-of-123f-epic-heat-cooks-argentina/
RE
Post by: RE on January 14, 2022, 01:36:58 am
https://www.axios.com/earth-sixth-warmest-year-extreme-climate-3abecdc0-790f-4c17-b4ee-05a65cb8e71f.html
Earth's climate went off the rails in 2021, reports show
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVovq9TGBw0
RE
Post by: RE on January 13, 2022, 04:27:29 pm
Models are fluctuating as to who will get what and where, but hopefully not too many Linemen are out with Covid and the Juice will come back on before your abode turns into a freezer.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/13/weather/winter-storm-snow-ice-for-south-and-east/index.html
A significant winter storm will plow through the East. But snow, rain or ice is still in question
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on January 12, 2022, 11:04:25 pm
JOW
Link:
https://thenewdaily.com.au/weather/2022/01/13/records-broken-wa-pilbara-swelters/?breaking_live_scroll=1
text:
Records broken as WA’s Pilbara swelters
pilbara
The mercury soared to its record new high just before 12.30 pm on Thursday. Photo: Getty
Avatar
Michael Ramsey
Parts of Western Australia’s Pilbara region have sweltered through their hottest day on record with the temperature hitting 50C.
The mercury in Roebourne soared to its new high just before 12.30 pm on Thursday, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
It puts into the shade the previous record for the town of 49.4C in December 2011.
Karratha, also on WA’s northwest coast, reached 48.4C to exceed its previous high of 48.2C.
WA’s highest temperature on record is 50.5C, posted in February 1998 in the tiny Pilbara outpost of Mardie. The mercury there climbed to 48.4C on Thursday.
The scorching heat is expected to somewhat ease in Roebourne and Karratha on Friday but another 49C day is forecast further down the coast in Onslow.
Temperatures were also well into the 40s in parts of the Goldfields and Gascoyne regions, while Perth enjoyed a mild 26C day.
A severe weather warning has meanwhile been issued for people in parts of the far-north Kimberley region, including Kununurra and Wyndham.
The bureau said a deep tropical low was set to move across the border from the Northern Territory, bringing heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding.
Damaging wind gusts up to 100km/h are anticipated from Thursday afternoon.
– AAP
Post by: RE on January 12, 2022, 05:01:33 am
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/furnace-argentina-roasts-record-setting-heat-wave-2022-01-11/
'Furnace': Argentina roasts in record-setting heat wave
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on January 11, 2022, 08:46:00 pm
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
Accelerating global warming and amplifying feedbacks: The imperative of CO₂ drawdown
by Andrew Glikson
Satellite measurements indicate that 2021 was one of the warmest years on record, with the past seven years being the hottest period recorded globally (Met Office, January 10, 2022). Attempts at global emission reductions, lowered in part due to COVID-19 economic slow-down, appear to have little effect on atmospheric CO₂ rise, as indicated by the current rise of atmospheric carbon dioxide to record high levels of 420 ppm despite reduced emissions in 2020-2021 (Figures 1 and 2).
Figure 1. A. Mean global CO₂ levels from 800,000 years to the present (NASA).
B. Mean global temperature rise from 1850 to 2021 (Berkeley Earth).
As stated by CarbonBrief: “The year so far has been one of extremes, featuring record-shattering heatwaves, wildfires and flooding, as well as the warmest-ever northern-hemisphere summer – June, July and August – in the global land-surface record.”
Whereas climate negotiations mostly focus on possible reductions in emissions, the cumulative buildup of greenhouse gases is determining the future of the terrestrial climate. According to NASA “Once it’s (CO₂) added to the atmosphere, it hangs around, for a long time: between 300 to 1,000 years".
Other estimates are much longer. Because of the longevity of CO₂ and other greenhouses gases in the atmosphere, a decrease in carbon emissions, while essential, is not sufficient to reduce CO₂ levels in the atmosphere in time.
According to the IPCC “about 50% of a CO₂ increase will be removed from the atmosphere within 30 years, and a further 30% will be removed within a few centuries. The remaining 20% may stay in the atmosphere for many thousands of years”. According to the US EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) “Atmospheric lifetime: 50-200 years. No single lifetime can be defined for CO₂ because of the different rates of uptake by different removal processes”.
According to Solomon et al. (2009) and Eby et al. (2009) high levels of CO₂ on the scale of 10² to 10³ ppm would persist for millennia.
Global emission reductions, decreased in part due to COVID-19 economic slow-down, have little effect on the atmospheric CO₂ level, as indicated by the current trend of atmospheric carbon dioxide, at record high levels despite reduced emissions in 2020 (Figure 2). This suggests to a significant extent the current rise in atmospheric CO₂ arises from amplifying feedbacks from land and ocean.
Figure 2. A. Observed and forecast monthly and annual CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa.
Observations from the Scripps CO2 program, forecasts from Met Office. Credit: Met Office.
B. Measured and forecast monthly CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii.
Black line: measurements by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UC San Diego. Solid red line
with vertical uncertainty bars: forecast by the Met Office, including the revised forecast for 2020
issued in May 2020 accounting for reduced global emissions due to societal responses to Covid-19.
The forecast uncertainty estimate is ± 0.6 ppm. Dotted red line: original Met Office forecast for
2020 issued in January 2020, not accounting for Covid-related emissions reductions.
Horizontal dashed blue line: 417 ppm, a 50% increase above 278 ppm, the level in 1750-1800
from ice core records.
All taking place notwithstanding hollow promises made at COP26, a meeting noted for the near-absence of contributions by climate scientists.
In trying to avoid an exponential rise in greenhouse gases toward catastrophic levels, one option exists, namely urgent attempts at drawing down at least part of the CO₂ concentration of the atmosphere. The $trillions of dollars required, constituting the “Price of the Earth”, may not exceed the $trillion dollars military expenses spent by the world over the last 70 years, including nuclear missile fleets which constitute a separate threat for life on Earth, as warned by Albert Einstein: “The unleashed power of the atom has changed everything save our modes of thinking and we thus drift toward unparalleled catastrophe”.
Andrew Glikson
A/Prof. Andrew Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia
Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
Posted by Sam Carana at 6:34 PM
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Labels: Andrew Glikson, CO2, drawdown, feedbakcs
Post by: RE on January 08, 2022, 04:06:19 am
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-59920215
Pakistan: Many dead as heavy snow traps drivers in their vehicles
RE
Post by: RE on January 07, 2022, 07:22:27 pm
Pacific Northwest storm causes flooding and landslides and shuts roads
Not a good time to be driving your Mercedes around Seattle.
RE
Post by: RE on January 07, 2022, 03:17:38 pm
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/07/weather/washington-flooding-emergency-alert-landslide/index.html
Evacuations ordered due to imminent flooding from heavy rain and snow in Washington state
K-Dog is at the top of a hill, so he should be OK.
RE
Post by: RE on January 06, 2022, 08:51:31 am
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/01/06/winter-storm-warning-east-coast-bomb-cyclone/9114320002/
Record-breaking snow slams Buffalo; East Coast braces for first bomb cyclone of 2022
RE
Post by: RE on January 04, 2022, 11:23:23 pm
https://wtop.com/traffic/2022/01/the-storm-paralyzed-traffic-on-some-roads/
I-95 in Va. reopens as motorists battle bailout traffic jam on Route 1
RE
Post by: RE on January 04, 2022, 06:07:20 pm
https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/mat-su/2022/01/03/in-pictures-windstorm-batters-palmer-and-wasilla/
In pictures: Windstorm batters Palmer and Wasilla
RE
Post by: RE on December 31, 2021, 12:28:46 pm
'2021 is pulling out all the tricks': Fish rain from the sky in rare phenomenon in Texas
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5aZJBLAu1E
RE
Post by: RE on December 31, 2021, 04:45:08 am
'Absolutely devastating' Colorado wildfire burns hundreds of homes near Boulder
Post by: RE on December 29, 2021, 05:39:46 pm
https://www.sfgate.com/renotahoe/article/Pollock-Pines-without-power-crisis-16736591.php
Without power or fuel, a Sierra community is facing a crisis exacerbated by Tahoe tourists
RE
Post by: RE on December 29, 2021, 01:25:15 pm
‘The Fuse Has Been Blown,’ and the Doomsday Glacier Is Coming for Us All
Post by: RE on December 29, 2021, 12:51:05 pm
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-59820999
Alaska 'Icemageddon' warning follows heat record
RE
Post by: RE on December 29, 2021, 01:52:00 am
COVID and snow force hundreds more flight cancellations at Sea-Tac Airport
Post by: RE on December 28, 2021, 08:25:08 am
https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/weather/2021/12/27/interior-alaska-storm-wreaks-havoc-as-highways-temporarily-close-and-thousands-remain-without-power/
Interior Alaska storm wreaks havoc as highways temporarily close and thousands remain without power
RE
Post by: RE on December 28, 2021, 08:12:41 am
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/12/28/lake-tahoe-december-snow-fall-breaks-record/9031911002/
Lake Tahoe shatters 50-year December snowfall record with more than 16 feet of snow
RE
Post by: RE on December 27, 2021, 07:31:18 pm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOh435v67Jo
Post by: RE on December 27, 2021, 05:53:10 am
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/12/kansas-aquifer-ogallala-water-crisis-drought/621007/
The Next Disaster Coming to the Great Plains
RE
Post by: RE on December 26, 2021, 06:36:53 pm
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/dam-collapses-northeastern-brazil-after-torrential-rain-2021-12-26/
Dams burst in northeastern Brazil as region hit by floods
RE
Post by: RE on December 21, 2021, 02:29:52 am
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/21/asia/typhoon-rai-philippines-deaths-intl-hnk/index.html
Philippines' Typhoon Rai death toll rises further as areas remain cut off from help
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on December 20, 2021, 05:18:31 pm
They care even less about classical models of a shtf day and teotwawki, because of more imminent threat:
https://mobile.twitter.com/aginnt/status/1472676569386733573
Do Aussies have their own Trumpite legions? I've always thought highly of the overall intelligence of Aussies, didn't realize they had a stupid as a stump contingent like America?
The former president who signed an exec order authorising funds in sept 2019 for operation warp speed the following year? I don't see why anyone would expect him to help against mandates for something he takes credit for. Its right wing fed govt and both left and right wing state govts policies under protest.
Post by: Phil Potts on December 20, 2021, 02:11:49 pm
Do you think this would be enough to wake up collapse deniers? Inquiring minds want to know.
https://www.pennlive.com/nation-world/2021/12/doomsday-glacier-giant-antarctica-ice-mass-could-collapse-within-3-to-5-years.html
‘Doomsday glacier’: Giant Antarctica ice mass could collapse within 3 to 5 years
RE
They care even less about classical models of a shtf day and teotwawki, because of more imminent threat:
https://mobile.twitter.com/aginnt/status/1472676569386733573
Post by: RE on December 20, 2021, 06:57:17 am
https://www.pennlive.com/nation-world/2021/12/doomsday-glacier-giant-antarctica-ice-mass-could-collapse-within-3-to-5-years.html
‘Doomsday glacier’: Giant Antarctica ice mass could collapse within 3 to 5 years
RE
Post by: K-Dog on December 16, 2021, 07:24:53 am
There will be no mitigation. Corporations are making all decisions.
Example: Profit motives decided self driving-cars we must have. I do not recall anyone asking me if the world needs them. Google forces the cars on us without any consideration of the effects on society. The average bozo is too stupid to understand that some people need to drive to earn money because they can't do much of anything else.
America needs a new labor movement. Capitalism must be brought down. Only the ghost of Karl Marx can save us.
Post by: RE on December 16, 2021, 04:16:44 am
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/16/weather/extreme-weather-central-us-thursday/index.html
More hurricane-force wind gusts were reported across the US in a single day than ever before
RE
Post by: RE on December 16, 2021, 12:52:39 am
https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/16/asia/super-typhoon-rai-philippines-intl-hnk/index.html
Super Typhoon Rai slams into the Philippines as tens of thousands evacuate
RE
Post by: RE on December 13, 2021, 08:02:51 am
From killer heatwaves to floods, climate change worsened weather extremes in 2021
RE
Post by: RE on December 12, 2021, 03:22:41 pm
Post by: RE on December 11, 2021, 08:41:53 am
Post by: RE on December 11, 2021, 02:52:43 am
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQbk273seFOA1vb_LRFTPESeLRaEZZQJiluhUc5WKWDQa9zHSXxWVE26l2BqetK8bhetpA&usqp=CAU
At least 50 people are likely dead following tornadoes in Kentucky, governor says
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQWSh7Db-_E&t=52s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkErNkX2HKM
A Tornado on the ground for 200 f*cking miles! THAT is some impressive shyt!
RE
Post by: RE on December 06, 2021, 07:58:19 pm
https://www.kptv.com/hawaii-faces-catastrophic-flooding-from-storms-until-tuesday-national-weather-service-warns/article_cfb47b47-4b4e-5f4e-99ca-5a5adbdf31b9.html?block_id=1002122
Hawaii faces 'catastrophic flooding' from storms until Tuesday, National Weather Service warns
Post by: John of Wallan on November 26, 2021, 12:36:09 pm
JOW
Link:
https://thenewdaily.com.au/news/national/2021/11/27/mega-bushfires-australia-csiro/?breaking_live_scroll=1
Text:
CSIRO study finds climate change is fuelling more ‘megafires’ in Australia
Smoke from a bushfire envelopes Perth in February 2021. Photo: AAP
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Tracey Ferrier
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Climate change is fuelling the risk of more “megafire years” in Australia and the nation is dealing with a longer fire season that extends well into autumn and winter, new CSIRO research says.
Scientists have released a landmark analysis of fire activity in 324,000 sq km of forest, mostly along Australia’s highly-populated east coast.
They say climate change is the “overwhelming factor driving fire activity” and it is to blame for a significant increase in the intensity and frequency of forest fires over the past 30 years.
Their report notes that three of the four “megafire years” — in which Australia lost more than one million hectares of forest — have occurred since the year 2000. That land mass is about four times the size of the United Kingdom.
CSIRO scientist Pep Canadell says the frequency of forest megafires is likely to continue.
At the same time the duration of the fire season is growing and extending into autumn and winter — the months fire authorities typically use to carry out prescribed burns to reduce the risk of dangerous blazes.
“Everything that happened after 2000, really the whole system has changed quite significantly in terms of the large fires. It’s very different from what we’d seen in the previous decades,” Dr Canadell says.
“There were clear rest areas and regions and times where there was little fire activity. All this has completely changed over the last 15 years where fundamentally the fire hazard has spread throughout the entire 12 months.
“We have had a three-fold increase in autumn, and a five-fold increase in winter.”
The average amount of time between major fires hitting the same areas is also shrinking.
In places like the Mountain Ash and Alpine Ash forests of southeastern Australia, fires are beginning to return too frequently to allow for regeneration, raising the prospect of ecosystem collapse.
“Many native animals will be threatened by the greatly reducing fire return interval,” fellow CSIRO scientist Garry Cook says.
Then there the issue of resourcing fire services to cope with much longer period of fire risk.
“There won’t be an off season,” he warns.
“We are going to face an increasing difficulty managing this, and it’s going to make it increasingly hard to live and work in the area of these forests.
“That means capital cities next to forests … those scenes of Sydney bathed in orange light from the smoke, this is going to be increasingly our future.”
He said the only long-term solution would be the manage the production of greenhouse gasses.
Australia’s mean temperature has increased by 1.4C since 1910 and scientists have long been warning the nation’s fire danger will rise alongside the temperature of the planet.
The research has been published in the journal Nature Communications.
-AAP
Post by: K-Dog on November 18, 2021, 08:21:39 am
Post by: RE on November 18, 2021, 12:02:18 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qbg0T6Dlpu0
RE
Post by: RE on November 17, 2021, 06:52:24 pm
Flood-ravaged British Columbia declares state of emergency
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/17/flood-ravaged-british-columbia-declares-state-of-emergency-.html
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on November 17, 2021, 09:57:54 am
[/quote]
Looks like WA is Wetter than Normal.
Fears death toll will rise after Pacific north-west storm
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/17/first-thing-fears-death-toll-will-rise-after-pacific-north-west-storm
RE
That was some crazy ****. It did not hit Seattle except:
On Monday night I went to Safeway to buy snacks. I think my family is trying to starve me to death sometimes so I venture out for sustenance. I went into the store and it was normal Seattle rain. If you dodge fast enough you can miss the raindrops and stay dry. Everything normal so far. I was parked 30 feet from the store door. No problem. I bought snacks.
Now I am ready to leave the store and I look out into the parking lot. Sheets of rain are coming down. It is pouring out. Thunderstorm hard rain without the thunder. I am holding 6 snack items in my hands because some **** who are trying to save the world decided everyone has to pay 8 cents for grocery bags in Seattle and I won't do it.
I run to the trunk of my car. Rain is hammering the trunk of the car. I can't set anything down so I can get my key out of my pocket because there is splashing water everywhere. I run back under the store overhang and put the 6 things I was carrying into a shopping cart. Now standing where it is dry I unlock the car with my key fob. I run out again with the 6 snack packages and throw everything into the back seat and drive home. By the time I get home the rain is normal again so I can take my time getting my stuff out of the back seat without getting soaked.
Tuesday it is a clear sunny day and I check to see what is happening online. I find out that 100 miles north there is torrential rain and flooding. At least one person dead in a mudslide. I just checked and find out the Canadian Military has been called up.
I don't know what to make of it. Can a 1 degree temp increase lead to so much increased rainfall that massive flooding is a new Pacific Northwest reality or is this an anomaly?
Considering the same thing happened in Cali a month ago I guess it is a good thing I am near the top of a hill. Anomaly smalleny. I am stuck between two recent flash flood events.
Glad you are okay. We got the tail of the same storm hundreds of miles inland. We lost power for quite a while - had to fire up the generator. We have some large old trees within range of the house and barn that were dancing and groaning in the wind. Not much restful sleep.
I hope the truckdriver had a change of underwear: go far enough into the video to see where it was perched.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EK8xrGRoLLg&list=TLPQMTYxMTIwMjFp2dijaYiS2w&index=17
I
Post by: Digwe Must on November 17, 2021, 09:48:52 am
Armadillos marching north
https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/environment/581772-a-wave-of-southern-armadillos-are-marching-north
Are they good eating?
RE
I have no idea. But, I doubt it. (probably just an irrational response to their appearance) Some of the folks from that part of the world might be able to tell us.
Thanks, but I think I'll pass.
New evidence that wild armadillos spread leprosy to humans
https://cvmbs.source.colostate.edu/new-evidence-that-wild-armadillos-spread-leprosy-to-humans/
Hunting and cooking armadillo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tRk6M4WSJU
Post by: K-Dog on November 17, 2021, 09:30:45 am
Looks like WA is Wetter than Normal.
Fears death toll will rise after Pacific north-west storm
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/17/first-thing-fears-death-toll-will-rise-after-pacific-north-west-storm
RE
That was some crazy ****. It did not hit Seattle except:
On Monday night I went to Safeway to buy snacks. I think my family is trying to starve me to death sometimes so I venture out for sustenance. I went into the store and it was normal Seattle rain. If you dodge fast enough you can miss the raindrops and stay dry. Everything normal so far. I was parked 30 feet from the store door. No problem. I bought snacks.
Now I am ready to leave the store and I look out into the parking lot. Sheets of rain are coming down. It is pouring out. Thunderstorm hard rain without the thunder. I am holding 6 snack items in my hands because some **** who are trying to save the world decided everyone has to pay 8 cents for grocery bags in Seattle and I won't do it.
I run to the trunk of my car. Rain is hammering the trunk of the car. I can't set anything down so I can get my key out of my pocket because there is splashing water everywhere. I run back under the store overhang and put the 6 things I was carrying into a shopping cart. Now standing where it is dry I unlock the car with my key fob. I run out again with the 6 snack packages and throw everything into the back seat and drive home. By the time I get home the rain is normal again so I can take my time getting my stuff out of the back seat without getting soaked.
Tuesday it is a clear sunny day and I check to see what is happening online. I find out that 100 miles north there is torrential rain and flooding. At least one person dead in a mudslide. I just checked and find out the Canadian Military has been called up.
I don't know what to make of it. Can a 1 degree temp increase lead to so much increased rainfall that massive flooding is a new Pacific Northwest reality or is this an anomaly?
Considering the same thing happened in Cali a month ago I guess it is a good thing I am near the top of a hill. Anomaly smallemy. I am stuck between two recent flash flood events.
Post by: RE on November 17, 2021, 06:34:00 am
Fears death toll will rise after Pacific north-west storm
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/nov/17/first-thing-fears-death-toll-will-rise-after-pacific-north-west-storm
RE
Post by: K-Dog on November 16, 2021, 04:20:47 pm
Armadillos marching north
https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/environment/581772-a-wave-of-southern-armadillos-are-marching-north
Since first being discovered in North Carolina in 2007, the armadillo population has continued to boom.
The first time he was dispatched for an armadillo sighting in the Blue Ridge Mountain town of Sapphire in 2019, “I just didn’t believe it,” Bullard told The Guardian. “I thought the woman had a possum and a drinking problem.”
Well-known to inhabit Texas due to its dry climate and largely flat habitat, biologists and researchers believe the animal’s exploration into new areas, such as the Blue Ridge Mountains’ mountainous range and high precipitation rates is an indication of the effects of climate change.
Are they good eating?
RE
I have no idea. But, I doubt it. (probably just an irrational response to their appearance) Some of the folks from that part of the world might be able to tell us.
https://youtu.be/OV0CoGVIeUA
Post by: K-Dog on November 16, 2021, 04:17:54 pm
Quote
COP26 summit in Glasgow could have acted more decidedly.
The protection of profit dooms the human race to extinction.
Post by: John of Wallan on November 16, 2021, 01:26:32 pm
I assume no one thinks NASA is making up data points?
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2021
Human Extinction by 2022?
The NASA image below shows the October 2021 temperature anomaly. The Arctic is heating up enormously, with anomalies showing up of up to 9.1°C.
The image below shows that the global temperature over the past century, i.e. from 1920 to 2020, has risen by 1.3°C. The image shows anomalies from 1900-1920. When adjusting data to reflect a pre-industrial base, ocean air (2m) temperatures and higher polar anomalies, temperatures may have crossed 2°C long ago.
The image below shows two trends, based on NASA 1880-October 2021 data, adjusted to reflect a pre-industrial base, ocean air (2m) temperatures and higher polar anomalies. The linear trend (green) misses the point that the temperature rise is accelerating. The polynomial trend (black) shows the potential for 3°C to be crossed by 2026.
Acceleration of the temperature rise may speed up further soon, for a number of reasons:
Aerosols: As cleaner alternatives become more economic, and as calls for cleaner air become stronger, this could result in a strong temperature rise soon, as sulfate cooling falls away and more black carbon may result from more wood burning and forest fires, as discussed at the aerosols page.
Sunspots: Within a few years time, sunspots will be reaching the peak of their cycle, and they are looking stronger than forecast, as illustrated by the image on the right showing sunspots up to October 2021.
ENSO: An upcoming El Niño could raise surface temperatures significantly. The image on the right shows that the current La Niña is forecast to end in 2022 and move toward a new El Niño. As the temperature keeps rising, ever more frequent strong El Niño events are likely to occur, as confirmed by a recent study. Authors also confirm concerns that the IPCC downplays the threat that a super El Nino event could occur soon.
The image below indicates that the difference between the top of El Niño and the bottom of La Niña could be more than half a degree Celsius.
As illustrated by the bar on the right, there are many further elements that could dramatically push up the temperature soon. Altogether, the rise from pre-industrial could increase to more than 18°C by 2026.
As the image at the top shows, the Arctic is heating up enormously, with anomalies showing up of up to 9.1°C.
Decline of Arctic snow and ice can result in huge albedo losses, loss of latent heat buffer, jet stream changes, more and more extreme weather events, and more. Slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and increasing ocean stratification can result in less heat getting transferred from the atmosphere to the depths of the ocean, as also described at this page.
One of the largest threats is seafloor methane and despite repeated warning from some of the best experts in the field, the IPCC simply waves away this threat. This and other elements in the bar have been discussed in detail in many earlier posts such as this one and on the extinction page.
The image below shows three trends, i.e. the same black polynomial and green linear trends, based on NASA 1880-October 2021 data, and a blue polynomial trend based on 2015-October 2021 data. Data are again adjusted to reflect a pre-industrial base, ocean air (2m) temperatures and higher polar anomalies.
The blue polynomial trend better reflects short-term climate forcing such as aerosols, sunspots and an upcoming El Niño, as discussed above. The blue trend also shows the potential for 3°C to be crossed by the end of 2022.
Given that humans may go extinct with a 3°C rise, and a 5°C rise will likely end most life on Earth, the COP26 summit in Glasgow could have acted more decidedly. The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.
Links
• NASA Temperature Analysis
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/
• NOAA - Monthly Temperature Anomalies Versus El Niño
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/202110/supplemental/page-4
• Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate - by Wenju Cai et al. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-021-00199-z
• IPCC report may have underplayed risk of freak El Nino and La Nina events
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/ipcc-report-may-have-underplayed-risk-of-freak-el-ninos-and-la-ninas-20210820-p58klm.html
• How much warming have humans caused?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2016/05/how-much-warming-have-humans-caused.html
• A Temperature Rise Of More Than 18 Degrees Celsius By 2026?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/07/a-temperature-rise-of-more-than-18-degrees-celsius-by-2026.html
• Could temperatures keep rising?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/06/could-temperatures-keep-rising.html
• Overshoot or Omnicide?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/overshoot-or-omnicide.html
• Will COP26 in Glasgow deliver?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/10/will-cop26-in-glasgow-deliver.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Pre-industrial
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/pre-industrial.html
• Feebates
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feebates.html
• Quotes
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/quotes.html
• Feedbacks
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html
• Extinction
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html
• Latent Heat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/latent-heat.html
• Aerosols
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/aerosols.html
• Is the IPCC creating false perceptions, again?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/08/is-the-ipcc-creating-false-perceptions-again.html
• Can we weather the Danger Zone?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/07/can-we-weather-the-danger-zone.html
• How much warmer is it now?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/04/how-much-warmer-is-it-now.html
• When will we die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html
• Most Important Message Ever
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html
Posted by Sam Carana at 9:51 PM
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Labels: Arctic, El Niño, extinction, global, heat, methane, rise, temperature
Post by: Digwe Must on November 16, 2021, 12:53:57 pm
Armadillos marching north
https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/environment/581772-a-wave-of-southern-armadillos-are-marching-north
Since first being discovered in North Carolina in 2007, the armadillo population has continued to boom.
The first time he was dispatched for an armadillo sighting in the Blue Ridge Mountain town of Sapphire in 2019, “I just didn’t believe it,” Bullard told The Guardian. “I thought the woman had a possum and a drinking problem.”
Well-known to inhabit Texas due to its dry climate and largely flat habitat, biologists and researchers believe the animal’s exploration into new areas, such as the Blue Ridge Mountains’ mountainous range and high precipitation rates is an indication of the effects of climate change.
Are they good eating?
RE
I have no idea. But, I doubt it. (probably just an irrational response to their appearance) Some of the folks from that part of the world might be able to tell us.
Post by: RE on November 16, 2021, 12:09:11 pm
Armadillos marching north
https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/environment/581772-a-wave-of-southern-armadillos-are-marching-north
Since first being discovered in North Carolina in 2007, the armadillo population has continued to boom.
The first time he was dispatched for an armadillo sighting in the Blue Ridge Mountain town of Sapphire in 2019, “I just didn’t believe it,” Bullard told The Guardian. “I thought the woman had a possum and a drinking problem.”
Well-known to inhabit Texas due to its dry climate and largely flat habitat, biologists and researchers believe the animal’s exploration into new areas, such as the Blue Ridge Mountains’ mountainous range and high precipitation rates is an indication of the effects of climate change.
Are they good eating?
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on November 16, 2021, 11:27:50 am
https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/environment/581772-a-wave-of-southern-armadillos-are-marching-north
Since first being discovered in North Carolina in 2007, the armadillo population has continued to boom.
The first time he was dispatched for an armadillo sighting in the Blue Ridge Mountain town of Sapphire in 2019, “I just didn’t believe it,” Bullard told The Guardian. “I thought the woman had a possum and a drinking problem.”
Well-known to inhabit Texas due to its dry climate and largely flat habitat, biologists and researchers believe the animal’s exploration into new areas, such as the Blue Ridge Mountains’ mountainous range and high precipitation rates is an indication of the effects of climate change.
Post by: RE on November 16, 2021, 01:49:00 am
'Double whammy' for flood-hit NSW farmers
https://thewest.com.au/news/natural-disasters/double-whammy-for-flood-hit-nsw-farmers-c-4577800
RE
Post by: K-Dog on November 13, 2021, 09:56:01 pm
Quote
Oh lord won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz. My friends all drive ....
Oh, never mind. I already have one.
Post by: Phil Potts on November 13, 2021, 05:39:34 pm
Without drastic action to conserve habitats, the rate of species extinction — already tens to hundreds of times higher than the average across the past ten million years — will only increase, says the analysis. The findings come from a United Nations-backed panel called the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).
Why is it folks just don't have the BALLS to say it? Who doesn't think that our continued pollution of the biosphere will bother OUR species the same as it does all the rest? And all our faux hang wringing over the others is NOT because we give a **** about them, but ourselves. And being intellectual chickenshits, we can't talk about what really drives this faux fascination.
Noah only collected up critters because they were tasty then. Today it's a question for the little lady driving this 600hp GTR:
[attachimg=2]
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: Digwe Must on November 13, 2021, 09:32:29 am
Why is it folks just don't have the BALLS to say it? Who doesn't think that our continued pollution of the biosphere will bother OUR species the same as it does all the rest? And all our faux hang wringing over the others is NOT because we give a **** about them, but ourselves. And being intellectual chickenshits, we can't talk about what really drives this faux fascination.
[/quote]
Who is this we? Do you have a mouse in your pocket? Some of us care very much about the extinction of the natural world. Some of us try to live our lives accordingly. It ain't faux anything.
Some of us work for the interests of the polluters.
These species aren't being "bothered". They're dead and gone. Of course the doom will extend to humans. It already is.
Post by: Digwe Must on November 13, 2021, 07:23:33 am
Link:
The critical criterion definitive of global warming, namely the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, rising by nearly ~50% since pre-industrial time, is only rarely mentioned. Nor are other quantitative measures of climate change, such as the level of methane and nitrous oxide, which have risen by about 3-fold being highlighted. While opinions by journalists, politicians, economists and social scientists proliferate, less attention is given to what is indicated by climate science. This reluctance renders the global response to the looming climate calamity increasingly irrelevant.
It is the ethical duty of scientists to advice governments and the public of dangerous developments, but it incurs a heavy price to pay for communicating worrying news Cassandra-like, including social and professional isolation. Don’t envy scientists aware of the ultimate consequences of global warming. Many have either self-censored or their work suppressed or dismissed within institutions and the media, including in governments and academia.
The reluctance of too many to undertake effective defense of the Earth’s climate, since nearly 40 years ago, can only culminate in devastation of the planet’s life support systems—one of the greatest catastrophes the planet has undergone since the dinosaur extinction about 66 million years ago.
Thanks for posting JOW.
We can discuss the definition and appropriate use of the term "die off" for the human population of the planet. However, it is obvious that the extinction event underway among the other inhabitants of this earth is accelerating - call it what you want. The consequences are becoming more obvious - but the potential for profit remains the driving factor and will not be inhibited by squishy values such as empathy, compassion or concern for future generations. None of theses critters can do the math - so they deserve what they get.
https://www.iberdrola.com/environment/climate-change-endangered-species
Ample evidence demonstrating the reduction in the natural biodiversity of our planet can be found in the Red List of Threatened SpeciesExternal link, opens in new window. from the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). In its 2017 edition, this list now includes 87,967 species, of which 25,062 are in danger of extinction. In the oceans, to cite just one such example, the rise in temperature and the acidification of water are turning coral reefs — previously lush underwater meadows full of algae, fish, molluscs, and crustaceans — into whitish deserts.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-01448-4
Up to one million plant and animal species face extinction, many within decades, because of human activities, says the most comprehensive report yet on the state of global ecosystems.
Without drastic action to conserve habitats, the rate of species extinction — already tens to hundreds of times higher than the average across the past ten million years — will only increase, says the analysis. The findings come from a United Nations-backed panel called the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES).
Post by: John of Wallan on November 12, 2021, 11:41:08 am
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
The road to zero emissions is strewn with "alternative facts"
by Andrew Glikson
Once again, the hopes of billions have been raised, only to be dashed, this time by the cruel joke of COP26, the reality being that “By 2030, governments are planning to extract 110% more fossil fuels than their Paris Agreement pledge to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would permit”.
Misrepresentations abound:
The United Nations upper global temperature target of 1.5°C takes no account of the fact that, without the transient short-lived aerosols effect of over 0.5 to 1.0 Watt/m⁻², the mean global heating is nearing ~2.0°C.
It is the cumulative concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which controls temperatures, triggering feedbacks from land and oceans, and which has reached a high level of combined CO₂+CH₄+N₂O of >500 ppm CO₂-equivalent. Only sequestration / drawdown from this level may be able to lower terrestrial temperatures.
Polar temperature changes are critical: The Arctic temperature anomaly reached 3°C above 1981-2010 in 2016 and the increasing similarity between polar and northern latitude temperatures leads to weakening of the jet stream boundary effect, allowing cold and warm air masses to cross the boundary.
The tropical climate zone is expanding and Mediterranean climate zone, where much of the world’s crops are grown, is shrinking and shifting toward the poles.
As the polar ice sheets are melting sea levels are rising, initially on the scale of inches and subsequently toward as equilibrium with Pliocene-like temperatures equivalent to a sea level rise of ~25 meters, flooding extensive coastal zones and delta where billions live and grow food.
The development of hydrocarbon reserves is proceeding unabated (Figures 1 and 2). Since the Paris agreement in 2015, the world’s 60 largest banks have poured $3.8 trillion into fossil fuel companies. In the US, auctioning has begun of drilling rights in Alaskan waters and the Gulf of Mexico. In the UK, whose PM is talking about one minute to midnight, 113 new licenses are offered to explore offshore reserves. Germany is developing new coal deposits. Australia, accounting for about 29% of traded coal globally in 2016, has become the world’s largest coal exporter and near-largest natural gas (LNG) exporter, currently representing around 3.6% of global emissions.
Huge LNG projects were planned in 2020 in Alaska ($43 billion), Mozambique ($33 billion), Kuwait ($16 billion), Nigeria ($11 billion), Australia ($11 billion), Russia ($10.8 billion, pipeline), Louisiana ($10.8 billion), Greece ($5.5 billion, pipeline) and elsewhere. According to NES FIRCROFT “In terms of new projects, however, the outlook is wide open. According to sector research firm Rystad Energy, around 250 new Oil & Gas projects are likely to be sanctioned for development in 2020 - up from 160 in 2016. The number of floating production, storage and offloading vessels (FPSOs) is due to increase with as many as 28 currently on order or under construction, while around 4,000 km of subsea oil and gas flowlines are due for installation this year.”
In India forecasts for 2024-2025 include utilization of energy supplies of 50% coal, 25% oil, 20% gas, 3% nuclear and 2% hydro.
Figure 1. EIA projects nearly 50% increase in world energy use by 2050, with no decline in fossil fuel use
A 2014 analysis by Katherine Keil concluded that fossil fuels like they exist in the Arctic are expected to continue supplying much of the energy used worldwide.
Given that future emissions and temperatures may exceed what current policies would lead to (Figure 2. below), growth in the use of fossil fuels combined with the lack of effective methods of reducing the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can only have catastrophic consequences. This means that unless civilization moves to a war-like footing, such as in pre-world war II, in an attempt to reduce carbon emissions from all sectors and to sequester greenhouse gas levels, large parts of the Earth may become uninhabitable.
So much for the term “security” repeated through corporate reports.
Figure 2. Climate Action Tracker Thermometer (Nov. 2021 update)
It is the children, led by an 18 years-old girl, who appear to have the perspective on what will determine the future of humanity and nature.
Andrew Glikson
A/Prof. Andrew Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia
Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
Posted by Sam Carana at 6:54 PM
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Labels: Andrew Glikson, fossil fuel, Paris Agreement, temperature
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2021
The exclusion of climate science from COP meetings
by Andrew Glikson
There can be little doubt that, had the US, China and Russia been on the same page, an advanced agreement was likely to be reached at COP26, but since it is not, the collapse can be laid at the feet of human tribalism and eternal conflict since the dawn of civilization, ultimately leading to a mass extinction of species.
Climate scientists have practically been excluded from COP meetings, dominated as they are by economists, lawyers and politicians. To date no address has been made by leading climate scientists, including authorities such as James Hansen, Michael Mann, Joachim Schellnhuber, Will Steffen and other, leaving delegates and populations unaware of the ultimate consequences of global climate devastation.
With the exception of David Attenborough and references to “one minute to mid-night”, the science-based projections of global heating have only received faint echoes among the assembly of warring tribes at COP-26, dominated by nationalism, vested interests and sheer ignorance of the current trend, which can only culminate in the end of civilization.
The futility of making political decisions regarding future carbon emissions while continuing to grow fossil fuel industries is manifest (Figure 1).
Figure 1. Global CO₂ emissions by fuel (Global Carbon Project)
The lessons from climate science indicate:
While politicians talk about a 1.5°C target, the mean global temperature has already exceeded this level and likely approaches 2°C when the transient short-term masking effects of aerosols are accounted for. Thus Hansen and Sato (2012) estimate aerosol to lower global temperatures by between -1.0°C and -1.2°C, which implies the real mean global temperatures are close to +2°C above pre-industrial level. By contrast, references to the NASA’s ~1.02°C warming can be compared to a measurement of a patient’s body temperature only after they take a dose of aspirin. Furthermore, this NASA anomaly is measured from 1951-1980, whereas the Paris Agreement calls for a pre-industrial base.
Whereas the critical need for emissions reduction is central to climate negotiations, the effects of cumulative concentration of GHG in the atmosphere (CO₂ + equivalent CH₄, N₂O, etc), which trigger amplifying feedbacks from land and ocean, remains hardly tackled. The current CO₂-equivalent level of >500 ppm (Figure 2), which is near X1.8 times the pre-industrial level of ~280 ppm CO₂, is generating amplifying feedbacks. According to a climate sensitivity estimate of 3 ± 1.5°C per doubling of CO₂ the equilibrium rise in temperature could be approaching +3°C.
The role of amplifying GHG feedbacks from land and oceans, leading to enhanced heating, appears to be neglected in climate talks, including:
- A decline in the polar albedo (reflection) due to large-scale lateral and vertical melting of ice;
- Reduced CO₂ intake by warming oceans. Currently the oceans absorb between 35-42% of all CO₂ and around 90% of the excess heat;
- Warming, desiccation, deforestation and fires over land areas;
- Release of methane from melting permafrost and from polar sediments;
- An increase in evaporation, particularly in arid zones, raising atmospheric vapor levels, which enhances the greenhouse gas effect.
IPCC-based climate trends are mostly linear, yielding an impression that overshooting of the warming trend is capable of being reversed within acceptable time scales, projections which neglect the likelihood of tipping points of no return. The time scales for attempts to cool the atmosphere may exceed the longevity of civilization. The weakening of the Arctic jet stream, allowing air and water masses of contrasted temperatures to cross the Arctic boundary, leads to disruptions such as the freezing “beast from the east” fronts that hit North America and Europe and Arctic wildfires. The flow of ice melt water from Greenland and Antarctica into the oceans may result in marked transient temperature reversals in the oceans, extending onto land.
While neglecting the consequences of runaway global warming, discussions continue of the price of mitigation and adaptation, i.e. the price of habitability of Earth, proceeding to huggle in terms akin to corner store grocers. Elsewhere, much of the media appears to be preoccupied with the price of submarines, deadly weapons in futile wars, ironically more suitable for coastal surveys of regions flooded by an inevitable sea level rise on the scale of many meters.
Andrew Glikson
A/Prof. Andrew Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia
Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
Posted by Sam Carana at 6:27 PM
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Labels: Andrew Glikson, COP26, extinction, feedbacks, pre-industrial
TUESDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2021
Amplifying feedbacks from land and ocean may render emission reductions insufficient
by Andrew Glikson
Figure 1. Comparison of atmospheric samples contained in ice cores and more recent direct measurements, provides evidence that atmospheric CO₂ has increased since the Industrial Revolution. (Credit: NASA, data: Luthi, D., et al. 2008; Etheridge, D.M., et al. 2010; Vostok ice core data/J.R. Petit et al.; NOAA Mauna Loa CO2 record.)
[ Figure 2. from earlier post ]
While the world, for very good reasons, is relying on medical research in order to save the lives of millions, the “powers to be” are hardly listening to what climate science is saying about the existential threat to billions posed by global heating.
Since 1751 the world has emitted over 1.5 trillion tonnes of CO₂. The atmospheric level of CO₂ was 413.2 parts per million (ppm) in 2020, growing at peak rates of 2.5-3.0 ppm/year, representing the greatest acceleration since the dinosaur mass extinction of 66 million years ago.
“The last time the Earth experienced a comparable concentration of CO₂ was 3-5 million years ago, when the temperature was 2-3°C warmer and sea level was 10-20 meters higher than now”, Prof. Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General of the World Meteorological Organization said in a news release.
The rise of atmospheric greenhouse gases to levels >>400 ppm has the potential to rapidly transform the atmosphere into conditions similar to those of the Miocene and even the Eocene — a catastrophe for life on Earth.
According to the IPCC “the effects of +1.5°C of warming (relative to mean pre-industrial temperature), plus the projection that half a degree Celsius, 2°C versus 1.5°C, will make quite a considerable difference in the livability of planet Earth […] the trajectory of warming based on historical trends will see increases certainly above 3°C and possibly much more if emissions aren’t cut […] the whole world must become carbon neutral by 2050.”
Figure 3. Global mean temperature deviation from 1880-1900: all 19 years since 2002 rank among the 20 warmest. (Image by Munichre.com based on NOAA data)
Average global temperatures may be misleading. According to NASA, “The impacts of climate change haven’t been spread evenly around our planet [..] The strongest warming is happening in the Arctic during its cool seasons, and in Earth’s mid-latitude regions during the warm season”. The reduced albedo of the melting polar ice sheets are driving global warming at a rate faster than elevated temperatures in the tropics.
While the focus of international policies is on the essential reduction in emissions, it is the cumulative effect of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which drives global warming. The 2020 CO₂ level being 413.30 ppm, exceeding pre-industrial levels by more than 133 ppm. Unless civilization finds a way to down-draw CO₂ from the atmosphere, amplifying feedbacks from land and oceans will continue to heat the Earth, due to:
The polar albedo (reflection) decline due to large-scale lateral and vertical melting of ice;
Reduced CO₂ intake by the warming oceans. Currently the oceans absorb between 35-42 percent of all CO₂ emitted to the atmosphere and around 90 percent of the excess heat;
Warming, desiccation, deforestation and fires over land areas;
Release of methane from melting of permafrost and from polar sediments;
An increase in evaporation, particularly in arid zones, raising atmospheric vapor levels which enhances the greenhouse gas effect.
These feedbacks result in an accelerated climate change, as projected by Wally Broecker and others, and potentially in mass extinction. A climate chain-reaction is believed to have pertained about 55 million years ago during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM). According to Peter Ward and others, early examples of mass extinctions triggered by biological processes were related to ocean anoxia and acidification leading to methane (CH₄) and hydrogen sulfate (H₂S) release by “purple” and “green” algae and sulphur bacteria. In a similar sense anthropogenic global warming constitutes a geological/biological process for which the originating organism (sapiens) has not to date discovered an effective method of control.
Sequestration of CO₂ is essential due to the amplifying feedbacks of global warming, which are pushing temperatures up in a chain reaction-like process.
Whereas the aim of the Glasgow COP26 Conference is to reach agreement for limiting mean global temperature to <1.5°C, the short-term mitigating effect of aerosols on global temperatures, namely ~0.5 – 1.0°C, means global temperatures are already nearing ~2.0°C.
Hopes that the Glasgow climate meeting would help save the world from a climate catastrophe would depend on:
Binding agreements for the most abrupt reduction of carbon emissions rates to pre-peak rates of about 1 ppm/year or lower, requiring a world-wide transformation of agricultural, industrial and transport systems;
Attempts at sequestration/drawdown of greenhouse gases aimed at reducing the current atmospheric CO₂ levels to near-350 ppm or lower (Hansen et al. 2013). Whereas the engineering efforts and costs of such attempts cannot be overestimated, such could in principle be achieved by diversion from the astronomical budgets invested in defense industries, eventually aimed at future wars and further catastrophe.
The concept of a “carbon budget”, allowing the world to constrain emission to a particular amount of greenhouse gases in order to limit warming, does not take into account the amplifying feedbacks to warming from land and oceans, nor possible reversals due to the flow of cold water from melting ice sheets into the oceans.
The critical criterion definitive of global warming, namely the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, rising by nearly ~50% since pre-industrial time, is only rarely mentioned. Nor are other quantitative measures of climate change, such as the level of methane and nitrous oxide, which have risen by about 3-fold being highlighted. While opinions by journalists, politicians, economists and social scientists proliferate, less attention is given to what is indicated by climate science. This reluctance renders the global response to the looming climate calamity increasingly irrelevant.
It is the ethical duty of scientists to advice governments and the public of dangerous developments, but it incurs a heavy price to pay for communicating worrying news Cassandra-like, including social and professional isolation. Don’t envy scientists aware of the ultimate consequences of global warming. Many have either self-censored or their work suppressed or dismissed within institutions and the media, including in governments and academia.
The reluctance of too many to undertake effective defense of the Earth’s climate, since nearly 40 years ago, can only culminate in devastation of the planet’s life support systems—one of the greatest catastrophes the planet has undergone since the dinosaur extinction about 66 million years ago.
Post by: RE on November 10, 2021, 06:40:47 am
I've got a bad hand - can't type much.
Try talking to your phone using speech recgnition. Works pretty good these days. My right hand is totally ****. When I keyboard now, it's just with my left hand.
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on November 10, 2021, 06:31:09 am
https://theconversation.com/2021-was-a-bad-year-for-glaciers-in-western-north-america-and-its-about-to-get-much-worse-170847?utm_campaign=Rockies%20Today&utm_medium=email&utm_source=Revue%20newsletter.
I've got a bad hand - can't type much.
Post by: Digwe Must on November 03, 2021, 09:23:49 am
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climate-un/as-politicians-exit-cop26-130tn-worth-of-financiers-take-the-stage-idUSKBN2HO1BI
130 trillion. The real power now speaks.
GLASGOW (Reuters) - Banks, insurers and investors with $130 trillion at their disposal pledged on Wednesday to put limiting climate change at the centre of their work, and got support in the form of efforts to put green investing on a firm footing.
Post by: Digwe Must on November 01, 2021, 10:34:15 am
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-10-29/cop-26-stopping-climate-change-and-other-illusions/
COP-26: Stopping Climate Change and Other Illusions
By William E. Rees, originally published by Buildings & Cities Community Website
The good news is that the recent uptick in violent weather has increased pressure on participants in COP-26 finally to implement the kind of determined measures that will dramatically lower GHG emissions and put global heating on hold; the bad news is that whatever is agreed to at COP-26 is unlikely to make any positive difference.
There have been 25 COP meetings on climate change since 1995 and several international agreements to reduce carbon emissions, including the ‘legally binding’ 1997 Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement of 2015. Nevertheless, atmospheric GHG concentrations have increased unabated during this entire 25 year period — CO2, the principal anthropogenic GHG, has ballooned exponentially from ~360ppm in 1995 to almost 420 ppm in 2020 — and mean global temperature has risen by ~1 oC. History suggests that what should emerge from COP26 cannot emerge from COP26.
There are two fundamental barriers. First, participants in the COP meetings — government negotiators, political and scientific advisors, etc. — constitute a self-referencing cabal whose ‘solutions’ to climate change draw on the same set of beliefs, values, assumptions and facts that created the problem in the first place. In particular, they are dedicated to unconstrained economic growth propelled by continuous technological development, the beating heart and lungs of capitalism and neoliberal economics...
...Indeed, climate models already depend on so-called negative emissions technologies, particularly ‘bio-energy with carbon capture and storage’ (BECCS), to achieve the Paris target of limiting global heating to under 1.5 oC.
BECCS assumes we can gradually displace fossil fuels by growing biofuel crops to extract large quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere, and then capture and sequester the CO2 emitted when the biomass is burned. The problem is that BECCS is as yet unproved at scale and highly controversial. For one thing, the massive cropland requirement would generate crisis-level conflict with both food production and biodiversity conservation. Some climate scientists see NZ2050 as yet another in a series of “magical yet unworkable” technical (non)solutions to the climate conundrum (Dyke et al., 2021). They argue that the idea of net zero simply continues what has proved to be a “recklessly cavalier ‘burn now, pay later’ approach” which has seen carbon emissions continue to soar. Spratt and Dunlop (2021) characterize NZ2050 as “not just a goal, but a strategy for COP-26 to lock in many decades of unnecessary fossil fuels use well past 2050… [and creating] unacceptable risks of unstoppable climate warming.” These characterizations depict a world in desperation, willing to risk catastrophic climate change in service of a perceived need to maintain growth-oriented business-as-usual-by-alternative-means."
This is madness.
Post by: Digwe Must on November 01, 2021, 09:39:33 am
Many people who've been around the climate change universe for a while are taking a different tone with this conference. There is no optimism. It's desperation time. Yet, oblivious to the hypocrisy, the enormous energy footprint of the conference, the happy faces are out among the 1%. I assume the whiff of profit driven exploitation is in the air.
This from Albert Bates' column yesterday. Albert has been in the trenches for a long time. I know some of his attempts at optimism have bothered RE over the years. He has moved the ball forward on Permaculture - teaching where it counts, in some poor counties among those in need. He has really helped people understand the value of biochar.
"Glasgow has closed its city to its own residents, businesses, and the usual tourists in preparation to receive 150 or more Heads of State including two, possibly more, US presidents; the royal family (sans the Queen who will come in by Skype); 190 national delegations each with up to 100 staffers and VIPs; 10,000 credentialed media requiring a million square feet of desk, video and radio production space, including scores of editing studios, stages, and satellite farms; and a Green Zone half as large as the giant industrial park Blue Zone, separated by a river, to keep busy tens of thousands of pre-certified NGOs, labor unionists, civil servants, tech companies, bankers, youth, tribes, educators and scientists with circuses of side events. The general public without tickets will be kept behind secure barriers manned by regiments of regular army, UN security, various secret services, and special forces, overflown by drones and circled by PT boats.
It should surprise no one that not a single country passed its 5-year fossil quartering test. Fewer than 10 percent of signatories have even shared the news of the quartering requirement with the general populations of their countries. Arithmetic is apparently not taught in journalism school."
https://peaksurfer.blogspot.com
Why would anyone be optimistic? There will be agreements and earnest-appearing politicians who sign them only to fly home and forget about the damn thing except for using the conference as fodder for re-election. It's too late - baked in - to use a bad pun.
Post by: Digwe Must on October 14, 2021, 04:27:41 pm
https://www.statesman.com/story/weather/2021/10/14/weather-floods-how-much-rainfall-did-austin-get/8443246002/
Hopefully, he has a Kayak in his preps.
RE
Or at least a snorkel.. Eddie - hope all is well.
Post by: RE on October 14, 2021, 02:20:12 pm
Hopefully, he has a Kayak in his preps.
RE
Post by: RE on October 06, 2021, 07:56:02 pm
Over two feet of rain fell in Italy in only half a day, something not seen in Europe before
https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/06/weather/italy-flood-oman-climate-change/index.html
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on September 16, 2021, 10:24:45 am
If you buy the boat, I might visit with the new leg. Tested it out today. The Prosthetologist (no, not Proctologist) was amazed. He said he never saw anyone able to walk on one as soon as it was on. No practice, no Physical Therapy. I had a cane, but I didn't really need it, just for security. I tried stepping up, no problem so I can get in and out of my van, or down the ladder into a boat cabin. :) Good balance, gymnastics pays off. lol. I think I probably could ride a motorcycle again too! :o
Still needs work, I just used a test socket today. 3 more weeks to wait for a finished socket, then some further tweaks. Not real comfy, but better than hopping around on one leg and being on wheels all the time.
This really is good news. Glad to hear it.
Post by: John of Wallan on September 16, 2021, 01:52:30 am
La-Nina is what happened to drought. We have had a wet winter and spring and expect higher than average rainfall until at least next Autumn from what I have read.
This is for the South East anyway.
JOW
Post by: RE on September 15, 2021, 10:08:41 pm
https://youtu.be/a6PfVvQiWUM
RE
Post by: Eddie on September 15, 2021, 04:16:18 am
Galveston got a lot of rain. Sixty mph winds. Lots of power out. They call that a glancing blow. Galveston has always been hurricane central. Worse than NOLA.
I’ve been thinking about buying a lot where some houses got torn down after Harvey. Down in Ingleside, if I can figure out how to pay for it. Good place to finally park a future sailboat. My tractor is almost paid for. Time flies.
If you buy the boat, I might visit with the new leg. Tested it out today. The Prosthetologist (no, not Proctologist) was amazed. He said he never saw anyone able to walk on one as soon as it was on. No practice, no Physical Therapy. I had a cane, but I didn't really need it, just for security. I tried stepping up, no problem so I can get in and out of my van, or down the ladder into a boat cabin. :) Good balance, gymnastics pays off. lol. I think I probably could ride a motorcycle again too! :o
Still needs work, I just used a test socket today. 3 more weeks to wait for a finished socket, then some further tweaks. Not real comfy, but better than hopping around on one leg and being on wheels all the time.
RE
Nice. Glad to hear.
Post by: RE on September 15, 2021, 01:51:03 am
That is great news. If you were not a committed monist and now you are mobile again, you could figure out how to use it as a chick magnet. You would not even need the dog.
After my TURP operation, I will also need a Bionic P*enis. ::)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/1001293251695886337/2uYV0LT-_400x400.jpg)
I wonder if Medicare will pay for one? ???
RE
Post by: K-Dog on September 15, 2021, 01:34:43 am
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.etsystatic.com%2F15001276%2Fr%2Fil%2Fb2c671%2F2239922468%2Fil_fullxfull.2239922468_nm5d.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
Post by: RE on September 14, 2021, 06:55:28 pm
Galveston got a lot of rain. Sixty mph winds. Lots of power out. They call that a glancing blow. Galveston has always been hurricane central. Worse than NOLA.
I’ve been thinking about buying a lot where some houses got torn down after Harvey. Down in Ingleside, if I can figure out how to pay for it. Good place to finally park a future sailboat. My tractor is almost paid for. Time flies.
If you buy the boat, I might visit with the new leg. Tested it out today. The Prosthetologist (no, not Proctologist) was amazed. He said he never saw anyone able to walk on one as soon as it was on. No practice, no Physical Therapy. I had a cane, but I didn't really need it, just for security. I tried stepping up, no problem so I can get in and out of my van, or down the ladder into a boat cabin. :) Good balance, gymnastics pays off. lol. I think I probably could ride a motorcycle again too! :o
Still needs work, I just used a test socket today. 3 more weeks to wait for a finished socket, then some further tweaks. Not real comfy, but better than hopping around on one leg and being on wheels all the time.
RE
Post by: Eddie on September 14, 2021, 05:00:17 pm
I’ve been thinking about buying a lot where some houses got torn down after Harvey. Down in Ingleside, if I can figure out how to pay for it. Good place to finally park a future sailboat. My tractor is almost paid for. Time flies.
Post by: Phil Potts on September 12, 2021, 01:35:36 pm
[
These guys are in the same camp as guy, just they frame their repeating 5 yr out doomsday scenarios as a question rather than a prediction.
They had ice free arctic by 2017 in 2012.
I will not mention that guy you seem to hate. Ever again. (Not that I have recently...)
I will not mention near term human extinction. Ever again. (Not that I have recently...)
I will post interesting (To me at least) articles which show how much of a pickle we are in, which I believe come from credible sources.
If every time I post an article from this site it triggers you I will add a trigger warning at the top of the page... 'Warning Phil: This site is linked to the guy that cant be mentioned, and which upsets you; please read with care." (I am taking the **** Phil; I wont actually do that)
Please dispute the data. I could do with some good news.
Questions:
1. When do you think we will have an ice free arctic, if at all?
2. If so, do you think it will cause any problems, or just improved shipping lanes so we can buy more plastic junk from China?
It is indeed fantastic news that we still have ice in the arctic, and we should celebrate thet fact that that prediction is wrong, if perhaps only for a short time.
I hope it continues for a very long time, perhaps due to some unforseen negative feedback loop, but hope is not reality.
JOW
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MaN4sboc7E8
Recurring wrong timeframes are not reality either, but saying so seems like saying a baby is ugly. To answer your question, we can do what Carana did in 2012 and use the current year only to project out, that would buy some extra time.
What unforseen negative feedback loops might have happened this year? Uneducated guesses here on possibilities; Solar minimum, astral/orbital timeframe for mini ice age, almost 2 years of grounded passenger planes, no tourism, less commuting, less production. Overall less pollution.
Going forward, 4IR and great reset are supposed to save the planet and enough oil for who and what is deemed important. It isn't 10bn people, or even 8.
Post by: Phil Potts on September 12, 2021, 12:48:56 pm
In conclusion, the prospect of such a sequence of events makes a Doomsday-by-2021 warning appropriate.
The doomsday clock predicted nuclear holocaust which would mean human extinction, so there's no question what they mean. Still 4 months left for what many others think would take 40 yrs, to happen. In any case if the fertility of mice in mRNA trials extrapolates to humans, in 40 yrs we should have a manageable number of mouths to feed.
Ah...so you don't just bite on climate prophets of doom, but the other kinds as well?
Its stated right at the start of the article in question what the doomsday clock is about. I'm not taking issue with it, just pointing out what Carana meant by doomsday. On the original article by glikson I had no problem with the content, only that it needed proofreading and editing.
Post by: RE on September 12, 2021, 11:22:48 am
(https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT14/refresh/AL1421WPCQPF+gif/174537WPCQPF_sm.gif)
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on September 11, 2021, 04:30:03 pm
The doomsday clock predicted nuclear holocaust which would mean human extinction, so there's no question what they mean. Still 4 months left for what many others think would take 40 yrs, to happen. In any case if the fertility of mice in mRNA trials extrapolates to humans, in 40 yrs we should have a manageable number of mouths to feed.
Post by: John of Wallan on September 11, 2021, 03:58:49 pm
[
These guys are in the same camp as guy, just they frame their repeating 5 yr out doomsday scenarios as a question rather than a prediction.
They had ice free arctic by 2017 in 2012.
I will not mention that guy you seem to hate. Ever again. (Not that I have recently...)
I will not mention near term human extinction. Ever again. (Not that I have recently...)
I will post interesting (To me at least) articles which show how much of a pickle we are in, which I believe come from credible sources.
If every time I post an article from this site it triggers you I will add a trigger warning at the top of the page... 'Warning Phil: This site is linked to the guy that cant be mentioned, and which upsets you; please read with care." (I am taking the **** Phil; I wont actually do that)
Please dispute the data. I could do with some good news.
Questions:
1. When do you think we will have an ice free arctic, if at all?
2. If so, do you think it will cause any problems, or just improved shipping lanes so we can buy more plastic junk from China?
It is indeed fantastic news that we still have ice in the arctic, and we should celebrate thet fact that that prediction is wrong, if perhaps only for a short time.
I hope it continues for a very long time, perhaps due to some unforseen negative feedback loop, but hope is not reality.
JOW
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MaN4sboc7E8
Post by: John of Wallan on September 11, 2021, 03:27:35 pm
Was written 3 years ago. Since then a lot has happened, not least of was half of SE Oz burnt along with parts of alaska and Siberia.
Once again I cant see any mention of imminent human extinction.
I tend to agree with the last line:
"The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan."
JOW
Link:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/11/doomsday-by-2021.html
Text:
Doomsday by 2021?
The Doomsday Clock, by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, constitutes a potent symbol of the danger we're in. When taking the 'minutes to midnight' from statements 1991 to 2018, an added trend points at Midnight by 2021. Will it be Doomsday by 2021?
The 2018 Statement said that "world leaders failed to respond effectively to the looming threats of nuclear war and climate change. [ . . ] Global carbon dioxide emissions have not yet shown the beginnings of the sustained decline towards zero that must occur if ever greater warming is to be avoided."
Recently, Fatih Birol, IEA Executive Director, said: "We expect energy-related CO2 emissions will increase once again in 2018 after growing in 2017."
Next to carbon dioxide, the outlook for other greenhouse gases is also very worrying and the situation could deteriorate very rapidly, as further described below.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
Here's how. As above image shows, oceans continue to warm up, due to the rise in greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere.
[ wind speed as high as 268 km/h or 167 mph ]
The image on the right shows sea surface temperature anomalies as high as as 7.1°C (or 12.7°F) in the Bering Strait (at the green circle) on October 15, 2018.
Warmer oceans result in stronger cyclones. The next image on the right shows that Typhoon Yutu was forecast to reach an Instantaneous Wind Power Density (WPD) as high as 207647 W/m² at 850 mb and wind speeds as high as 268 km/h or 167 mph at the green circle, i.e. at 18.50° N, 124.00° E, on October 30, 2018, 00:00 UTC.
Cyclones can suddenly push huge amounts of salty warm water into the Arctic Ocean.
On November 12, 2018, there was a sudden influx of warm water from the Atlantic Ocean near Svalbard and sea surface temperature was as high as 20.4°C or 68.7°F, i.e. 17.4°C or 31.4°F warmer than in 1981-2011.
[ warm water from the Atlantic Ocean is
increasingly invading the Arctic Ocean ]
As the image on the right also illustrates, warm salty water from the Atlantic Ocean is increasingly invading the Arctic Ocean.
Salinity levels at the surface of the Arctic Ocean are low, due to the increasingly large run-off from rivers, glaciers, etc. Also, the Arctic Ocean is increasingly receiving precipitation from the Atlantic Ocean, due to stronger winds over the North Atlantic.
All this contributes to the formation of a freshwater lid on top of the surface of the Arctic Ocean, which has in turn helped to keep sea ice extent larger than it would otherwise have been over the past few years.
The influx of water from the Atlantic Ocean has a much higher salinity level. Ice will stay frozen and will not melt in freshwater until the temperature reaches 0°C (or 32°F). Ice in saltwater on the other hand will already have melted away at -2°C (or 28.4°F).
The danger is that a strong influx of salty warm water will reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and trigger destabilization of hydrates in sediments resulting in massive eruptions of methane from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, as described in earlier posts such as this one.
[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]
Arctic sea ice is currently widening in extent, in line with the change of seasons. This means that less heat can escape from the Arctic Ocean to the atmosphere. Sealed off from the atmosphere by sea ice, greater mixing of heat in the water will occur down to the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, while there is little or no ice buffer left to consume an influx of heat from the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, increasing the danger that warm water will reach the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean and destabilize methane hydrates.
This methane could cause temperatures to suddenly rise strongly at the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, speeding up decline of sea ice and permafrost, and further deforming the jet stream.
This could trigger even more extreme weather events, in particular storms, flooding, heatwaves and fires, across the Northern Hemisphere that could devastate crops, take down power grids and threaten meltdowns of nuclear power plants.
Aerosols associated with fires could further push up temperatures, as described in more detail below.
[ Image from: Extreme weather is upon us ]
Burning of agricultural waste can cause a lot of air pollution. The image on the right shows that on November 7, 2018 (at the green circle), levels of coarse particulate matter (PM10) as high as 1,913 μg/m³ were reached.
Even higher levels can be reached due to forest fires. As the image on the right shows, PM10 levels as high as 6,289 µg/m³ were reached on November 10, 2018, levels as high as 9,116 µg/m³ were reached on November 11, 2018, and levels as high as 9,856 µg/m³ are forecast for November 14, 2018, due to fires in California.
Above image shows that levels as high as 75,994 μg/m³ were reached in Siberia in 2017.
Such fires can add huge amounts of black carbon to the atmosphere.
For comparison, the EPA has set a National Ambient Air Quality Standard PM10 maximum of 150 μg/m³.
The decreasing temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator would make the jet stream even more wavy, accelerating winds that increase fire risks, while also increasing droughts that further increase fire risks.
High greenhouse gas levels further aggravate the situation. Carbon monoxide (CO) levels as high as 52,440 ppb and carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels as high as 809 ppm were reached on November 10, 2018, while CO levels as high as 78,116 ppb were forecast for November 14, 2018, due to fires in California.
The image below shows the smoke from fires in California on November 9, 2018.
Black carbon causes both cooling and warming. Black carbon shades the surface, somewhat cooling the surface of land and water, while it also absorbs heat, thus warming the air above the surface. Furthermore, black carbon causes warming by darkening the surface once it settles down. Studies have calculated that black carbon has a total net global warming effect of more than 1.1 W/m².
Above video Rings of Fire features former firefighter Tom Swetnam.
The image below illustrates to what extent smoke from fires boosted black carbon in the air over North America on August 23, 2018.
[ Image from: Will August 2018 be the hottest month on record? ]
Furthermore, without access to fossil fuel and with the electricity grid down, many people could turn to kerosene lamps for lighting and burning wood for heating and cooking, resulting in even more black carbon emissions that have a huge immediate warming impact. James Hansen (2007) found the GWP for soot (BC) to be approximately 2000 for 20 years, approximately 500 for 100 years and approximately 200 for 500 years.
Next to black carbon, there is another type of aerosols that is important, i.e. sulfur. Above video contains the Horizon documentary 'Global Dimming', broadcast January 2005 by the BBC.
Above image shows sulfur dioxide levels as high as 3597.10 µg/m³ in East Asia on October 24, 2018, indicating that sulfur levels may still be rising.
[ From the Extinction page ]
The image on the right shows IPCC (2000) projections for sulfur dioxide emissions.
The aerosol masking effect associated with sulfur would be strongly reduced as industrial activity would come to a standstill, thus further driving up warming.
The events as described above could result in a combined additional warming due to changes in aerosols of up to 2.5°C (4.5°F) in a matter of years.
In conclusion, the prospect of such a sequence of events makes a Doomsday-by-2021 warning appropriate. The accumulated impact of the various warming elements is illustrated by the image on the right.
A recent study found upper tolerance limits in plants of 23.7°C, which is less than where Earth would end up with a 10°C rise from current temperatures. However, these are tolerance levels, rather than extinction levels. The study concludes that "loss of one species can make more species disappear (a process known as ‘co-extinction’), and possibly bring entire systems to an unexpected, sudden regime shift, or even total collapse." The study therefore puts global diversity collapse at around 5°C of heating.
The situation is dire and calls for comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.
Post by: Phil Potts on September 11, 2021, 03:21:44 pm
So human extinction its not mentioned in this article, and stormy weather is OK as it will not effect crops/ habitat/ ecosystems?
200 species a day (not year) going extinct. Thats not good.
JOW
The article is written by Glikson with no collaboration or commentary on it by Carana. I don't know how you get that I meant gliksons article when I mentioned Sam Caranas analysis.
I prefer not to see famines, if you understood my criticism of gliksons wrong syntax to mean that.
Post by: John of Wallan on September 11, 2021, 02:37:12 pm
Has a huge amount of lreferences. inks and other reading at bottom of page. I have not copied text as its too many characters to post..
JOW
Link:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holocene_extinction
Post by: John of Wallan on September 11, 2021, 01:39:32 pm
200 species a day (not year) going extinct. Thats not good.
JOW
Post by: Phil Potts on September 11, 2021, 01:25:22 pm
There are numerous instances in that piece where we just need to guess what Glikson means, but there is a world of difference between his intention and the literal meaning of what he wrote. If Sam Carana is too uncritical to even edit, how do we trust their analysis we could be extinct in 2021 or 2026 is rigorous?
This is pretty clear and unambiguous:
Conclusion: A rise in the mean global temperature to about 4 degrees Celsius or higher, as projected by IPCC, and/or a stormy climate consequent due to clashes between air and water masses of contrasting temperatures consequent on weakening of climate zone boundaries, are likely to progress through the 21st Century, severely disrupting natural and human habitats and species.
Crop failures and habitat loss will cause major disruption to the human population levels, whether or not it means human extinction. Lots of other species are going extinct. That should have been enough incentive for us to do something.
We probably wont go extinct in the near term as a species due to climate change, but I dont think it will be business as usual... I also cant see us getting through this without major disruptions.
I cant actually see where human extinction is mentioned in the article.. It mentions rate of climate change being an order of magnitude greater than any previous change. This is what is causing mass extinctions of plants and animals.
Its not all about us.
I actually like other species, and not just as food. ;D
JOW
Conclusion: A rise in the mean global temperature to about 4 degrees Celsius or higher, as projected by IPCC, and/or a stormy climate consequent due to clashes between air and water masses of contrasting temperatures consequent on weakening of climate zone boundaries, are likely to progress through the 21st Century, severely disrupting natural and human habitats and species
What he meant was a a rise OF or BY about 4c. The meaning of what he said is that at some time in future, if you take all temp readings around the globe over a year and average them out, you get 4c.
He is also stating it is possible to have NO rise in average temp, but only stormy weather instead.
This is where they proposed human extinction possible by 2026 or even 2021. About a couple hundred other species are going extinct every year.
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/extinction.html?m=1
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2018/11/doomsday-by-2021.html
Post by: John of Wallan on September 11, 2021, 01:23:31 pm
JOW
Link:
https://www.thoughtco.com/the-5-major-mass-extinctions-4018102
Text:
The 5 Major Mass Extinctions
By Heather Scoville
Updated January 08, 2020
Throughout the 4.6 billion years of Earth's history, there have been five major mass extinction events that each wiped out an overwhelming majority of species living at the time. These five mass extinctions include the Ordovician Mass Extinction, Devonian Mass Extinction, Permian Mass Extinction, Triassic-Jurassic Mass Extinction, and Cretaceous-Tertiary (or the K-T) Mass Extinction.
Each of these events varied in size and cause, but all of them completely devastated the biodiversity found on Earth at their times.
Defining 'Mass Extinction'
Nyiragongo volcano
Werner Van Steen / Getty Images
Before learning more about these different mass extinction events, it is important to understand what can be classified as mass extinction and how these catastrophes shape the evolution of species that happen to survive them. A “mass extinction” can be defined as a time period in which a large percentage of all known living species go extinct. There are several causes for mass extinctions, such as climate change, geologic catastrophes (e.g. numerous volcanic eruptions), or even meteor strikes onto Earth’s surface. There is even evidence to suggest that microbes may have sped up or contributed to some of the mass extinctions known throughout the Geologic Time Scale.
Mass Extinctions and Evolution
SEM of a tardigrade
The tardigrade (water bear) has survived all 5 major mass extinction.
STEVE GSCHMEISSNER/SCIENCE PHOTO LIBRARY / Getty Images
How do mass extinction events contribute to evolution? After a large mass extinction event, there is typically a rapid period of speciation among the few species that do survive; since so many species die off during these catastrophic events, there is more room for the surviving species to spread out, as well as many niches in the environments that need to be filled. There is less competition for food, resources, shelter, and even mates, allowing the “leftover” species from the mass extinction event to thrive and reproduce rapidly.
As populations separate and move away over time, they adapt to new environmental conditions and are eventually reproductively isolated from their original populations. At that point, they can be considered a brand new species.
The First Major Mass Extinction: The Ordovician Mass Extinction
Fossil Trilobites
Fossil trilobites from the Ordovician age.
John Cancalosi / Getty Images
The Ordovician Mass Extinction
When: The Ordovician Period of the Paleozoic Era (about 440 million years ago)
Size of the Extinction: Up to 85% of all living species eliminated
Suspected Cause or Causes: Continental drift and subsequent climate change
The first known major mass extinction event occurred during the Ordovician Period of the Paleozoic Era on the Geologic Time Scale. At this time in the history of Earth, life was in its early stages. The first known life forms appeared about 3.6 billion years ago, but by the Ordovician Period, larger aquatic life forms had come into existence. There were also even some land species at this time.
The cause of this mass extinction event is thought to be the shift in the continents and drastic climate change. It happened in two different waves. The first wave was an ice age that encompassed the entire Earth. Sea levels lowered and many land species could not adapt fast enough to survive the harsh, cold climates. The second wave was when the ice age finally ended—and it was not all good news. The episode ended so suddenly that the ocean levels rose too quickly to hold enough oxygen to maintain the species that had survived the first wave. Again, species were too slow to adapt before extinction took them out completely. It was then up to the few surviving aquatic autotrophs to increase the oxygen levels so new species could evolve.
The Second Major Mass Extinction: The Devonian Mass Extinction
Several ancient limestone fossils
This limestone is full of bryozoa, crinoid, and brachiopod fossils from the Devonian period.
NNehring / Getty Images
The Devonian Mass Extinction
When: The Devonian Period of the Paleozoic Era (about 375 million years ago)
Size of the Extinction: Nearly 80% of all living species eliminated
Suspected Cause or Causes: Lack of oxygen in the oceans, quick cooling of air temperatures, volcanic eruptions and/or meteor strikes
The second major mass extinction in the history of life on Earth happened during the Devonian Period of the Paleozoic Era. This mass extinction event actually followed the previous Ordovician Mass Extinction relatively quickly. Just as the climate stabilized and species adapted to new environments and life on Earth began to flourish again, almost 80% of all living species—both in the water and on land—were wiped out.
There are several hypotheses as to why this second mass extinction occurred at that time in geologic history. The first wave, which dealt a major blow to aquatic life, may have actually been caused by the quick colonization of land—many aquatic plants adapted to live on land, leaving fewer autotrophs to create oxygen for all of the sea life. This led to mass death in the oceans.
The plants' quick move to land also had a major effect on the carbon dioxide available in the atmosphere. By removing so much of the greenhouse gas so quickly, temperatures plummeted. Land species had trouble adapting to these changes in climate and went extinct as a result.
The second wave of the Devonian mass extinction is more of a mystery. It could have included mass volcanic eruptions and some meteor strikes, but the exact cause is still considered unknown.
The Third Major Mass Extinction: The Permian Mass Extinction
Dimetrodon skeleton from the Permian Period
Dimetrodons went extinct in The Great Dying.
Stephen J Krasemann / Getty Images
The Permian Mass Extinction
When: The Permian Period of the Paleozoic Era (about 250 million years ago)
Size of the Extinction: An estimated 96% of all living species eliminated
Suspected Cause or Causes: Unknown—possibly asteroid strikes, volcanic activity, climate change, and microbes
The third major mass extinction was during the last period of the Paleozoic Era, called the Permian Period. This is the largest of all known mass extinctions with a massive 96% of all species on Earth completely lost. It is no wonder, therefore, that this major mass extinction has been dubbed “The Great Dying.” Aquatic and terrestrial life forms alike perished relatively quickly as the event took place.
It is still much of a mystery what set off this greatest of the mass extinction events, and several hypotheses have been thrown around by scientists who study this time span of the Geologic Time Scale. Some believe there may have been a chain of events that led to so many species disappearing; this could have been massive volcanic activity paired with asteroid impacts that sent deadly methane and basalt into the air and across the surface of the Earth. These could have caused a decrease in oxygen that suffocated life and brought about a quick change in the climate. Newer research points to a microbe from the Archaea domain that flourishes when methane is high. These extremophiles may have “taken over” and choked out life in the oceans as well.
Whatever the cause, this biggest of the major mass extinctions ended the Paleozoic Era and ushered in the Mesozoic Era.
The Fourth Major Mass Extinction: The Triassic-Jurassic Mass Extinction
Fossil of the dinosaur Coelophysis
About half of the known species on Earth perished during the Triassic-Jurassic Mass Extinction.
Scientifica / Getty Images
The Triassic-Jurassic Mass Extinction
When: The end of the Triassic Period of the Mesozoic Era (about 200 million years ago)
Size of the Extinction: More than half of all living species eliminated
Suspected Cause or Causes: Major volcanic activity with basalt flooding, global climate change, and changing pH and sea levels of the oceans
The fourth major mass extinction was actually a combination of many, smaller extinction events that happened over the last 18 million years of the Triassic Period during the Mesozoic Era. Over this long time span, about half of all known species on Earth at the time perished. The causes of these individual small extinctions can, for the most part, be attributed to volcanic activity with basalt flooding. The gases spewed into the atmosphere from the volcanoes also created climate change issues that changed sea levels and possibly even pH levels in the oceans.
The Fifth Major Mass Extinction: The K-T Mass Extinction
Tyrannosaurus Rex skeleton
The K-T extinction was responsible for the end of the dinosaurs.
Richard T. Nowitz / Getty Images
The K-T Mass Extinction
When: The end of the Cretaceous Period of the Mesozoic Era (about 65 million years ago)
Size of the Extinction: Nearly 75% of all living species eliminated
Suspected Cause or Causes: Extreme asteroid or meteor impact
The fifth major mass extinction event is perhaps the best-known, despite it not being the biggest. The Cretaceous-Tertiary Mass Extinction (or K-T Extinction) became the dividing line between the final period of the Mesozoic Era—the Cretaceous Period—and the Tertiary Period of the Cenozoic Era. It is also the event that wiped out the dinosaurs. The dinosaurs were not the only species to go extinct, however—up to 75% of all known living species died during this mass extinction event.
It is well-documented that the cause of this mass extinction was a major asteroid impact. The huge space rocks hit Earth and sent debris into the air, effectively producing an “impact winter” that drastically changed the climate across the entire planet. Scientists have studied the large craters left by the asteroids and can date them back to this time.
The Sixth Major Mass Extinction: Happening Now?
Lion hunters
A. Bayley-Worthington / Getty Images
Is it possible that we are in the midst of the sixth major mass extinction? Many scientists believe we are. A number of known species have been lost since humans' evolution. Since these mass extinction events can take millions of years, perhaps we are witnessing the sixth major mass extinction event as it happens. Whether or not humans will survive has yet to be determined.
Post by: John of Wallan on September 11, 2021, 12:49:47 pm
There are numerous instances in that piece where we just need to guess what Glikson means, but there is a world of difference between his intention and the literal meaning of what he wrote. If Sam Carana is too uncritical to even edit, how do we trust their analysis we could be extinct in 2021 or 2026 is rigorous?
This is pretty clear and unambiguous:
Conclusion: A rise in the mean global temperature to about 4 degrees Celsius or higher, as projected by IPCC, and/or a stormy climate consequent due to clashes between air and water masses of contrasting temperatures consequent on weakening of climate zone boundaries, are likely to progress through the 21st Century, severely disrupting natural and human habitats and species.
Crop failures and habitat loss will cause major disruption to the human population levels, whether or not it means human extinction. Lots of other species are going extinct. That should have been enough incentive for us to do something.
We probably wont go extinct in the near term as a species due to climate change, but I dont think it will be business as usual... I also cant see us getting through this without major disruptions.
I cant actually see where human extinction is mentioned in the article.. It mentions rate of climate change being an order of magnitude greater than any previous change. This is what is causing mass extinctions of plants and animals.
Its not all about us.
I actually like other species, and not just as food. ;D
JOW
Post by: Phil Potts on September 11, 2021, 01:43:58 am
Post by: John of Wallan on September 10, 2021, 07:30:12 pm
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
On borrowed time: How long to a Miocene-like tropical ~+4°C world?
by A/Prof Andrew Glikson
Earth and climate scientist
Toward late this century global temperatures are likely to either reach super-tropical levels of >>14°C or/and extreme levels of storminess consequent on clashes between Arctic and Antarctic sourced cold and warm air and water masses.
Humans appear to be mainly concerned about any one issue at a time, and while COVID-19 is claiming the lives of millions Homo sapiens appears to be increasingly oblivious to the growing threat to billions of humans and to nature, including the inhabitability of large regions and extinguishment of habitats.
The almost universal assumption as if a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is in itself sufficient to prevent further warming is misleading, since positive feedbacks from land and ocean would continue to raise greenhouse levels and temperatures.
Such feedback effects include:
increased evaporation with warming, water vapor being a greenhouse gas;
melting ice decreasing the albedo effect of Earth, exposing dark rock surfaces, reducing the albedo of the polar terrains and sea ice in surrounding oceans, enhancing infrared absorption and heating;
burnt and desiccated vegetation decreasing the albedo;
decreased absorption and solubility of CO₂ in warming oceans;
release of CO₂ and methane from drying vegetation, from melting permafrost and from bogs.
A critical parameter, rarely mentioned in the media, is the inexorable accelerating rise in atmospheric greenhouse gases. With CO₂ reaching 414.6 parts per million, CH₄ (methane) is reaching 1891.3 parts per billion and total greenhouse gas concentration of 500 parts per million, a level unknown since the Miocene about 5.3-23 million years ago.
With a Miocene CO₂ level in the range of ~400-500 parts per million and mean temperatures up to 18.4°C, the atmosphere is tracking toward super-tropical temperatures, which would render large regions uninhabitable.
Anthropocene temperature rise rates are at least an order of magnitude higher than the mean temperature rise since the Last Glacial Maximum:
Given the current mean global land and ocean temperature of 14°C, i.e. 6.2°C warmer than the mean ~7.8°C temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (~19,000–23.000 years-ago), the mean warming of (~0.00026°C/year rate; 6°C/23.000 years) is an order of magnitude slower than during the Anthropocene.
Late Holocene/Anthropocene: 1.04°C/250 years ~0.004°C/year). This relegates the current global warming to an unprecedented category during the last ~3 million years and longer.
Namely, at ~+4 degrees Celsius of warming toward later the 21st century the Earth’s mean surface land/ocean temperature would be warmer than tropical Miocene temperatures. A lag effect between the rise of greenhouse gases and temperature would delay but not prevent the worst effects of global warming.
But even before such high mean temperatures is reached, the weakened jet stream climate zone boundary, allowing penetration of cold and warm fronts, allowing clashes between air and water masses of contrasting temperatures, would lead to storminess, disrupting human agriculture and habitats, as is already happening in northern Europe and within the Arctic circle.
How long would it take for global temperatures to rise to about ~4°C and higher would depend on:
The acceleration in rising concentration of greenhouse gases and the lag in consequent rising temperatures;
The extent to which ice melt flow from Greenland and Antarctica may slow down further warming in certain regions, such as the north Atlantic and the Southern Ocean;
Further anthropogenic emissions and/or draw-down of atmospheric CO₂.
From the continuing rise of atmospheric greenhouse concentrations (CO₂: 2020 – 414.62 ppm; 2021 - 416.96 ppm) to date global greenhouse gas emissions are hardly slowing down, nor have attempts at mitigation and/or sequestration been effective. In 2019, the world emitted roughly 36.44 billion metric tons (BMT) of carbon dioxide, compared to 14.83 BMT in 1970.
According to the head of the International Energy Agency no new oil, gas or coal development ought to take place if the world is to reach net zero by 2050.
However, rising production of hydrocarbons in several regions, for example new drilling for oil in the North Sea, high production of oil and gas the USA, new coal mines in Australia and elsewhere cast doubt on the level of carbon emissions in future.
Conclusion: A rise in the mean global temperature to about 4 degrees Celsius or higher, as projected by IPCC, and/or a stormy climate consequent due to clashes between air and water masses of contrasting temperatures consequent on weakening of climate zone boundaries, are likely to progress through the 21st Century, severely disrupting natural and human habitats and species.
Andrew Glikson
A/Prof. Andrew Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
School of Biological, Earth and Environmental Sciences
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia
Books:
The Asteroid Impact Connection of Planetary Evolution
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400763272
The Archaean: Geological and Geochemical Windows into the Early Earth
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319079073
Climate, Fire and Human Evolution: The Deep Time Dimensions of the Anthropocene
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319225111
The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783319572369
Evolution of the Atmosphere, Fire and the Anthropocene Climate Event Horizon
http://www.springer.com/gp/book/9789400773318
From Stars to Brains: Milestones in the Planetary Evolution of Life and Intelligence
https://www.springer.com/us/book/9783030106027
Asteroids Impacts, Crustal Evolution and Related Mineral Systems with Special Reference to Australia
http://www.springer.com/us/book/9783319745442
The Event Horizon: Homo Prometheus and the Climate Catastrophe
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030547332
The Fatal Species: From Warlike Primates to Planetary Mass Extinction
https://www.springer.com/gp/book/9783030754679
Post by: RE on August 31, 2021, 11:26:37 am
https://www.npr.org/2021/08/25/1030994926/a-wildfire-is-heading-for-lake-tahoe-sending-ash-raining-down-on-tourists
Guess they will have to go to Vegas to gamble. No fires there! :)
RE
Post by: K-Dog on August 30, 2021, 08:39:22 pm
Quote
When do you think Uncle Joe will head in there to "assess the situation"?
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.pinimg.com%2F736x%2Fab%2Ff6%2Fe9%2Fabf6e99040bb79cb1020680712fbfa1d.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
Joe is covered.
Post by: RE on August 30, 2021, 11:43:54 am
"At least 1 person has died". hahahahaha. I suspect it was a few more than that. Will you hear about it? Like Vietnam, they have learned their lesson here. Surpress bad news, give a positive spin on recovery. Not that I think the death toll was all that huge though. The bigger problem is more long term homelessness.
When do you think Uncle Joe will head in there to "assess the situation"?
RE
Post by: RE on August 29, 2021, 05:36:00 pm
So I am not going to tell you anything that you can't figure out for yourself if you just look at one of these websites and watch all the graphics.
The interesting thing is the spin. This is essentially not as bad as expected. LOL. At least while it's going on right. But if you have watched how these hurricanes move and what is going on you know that they are pitching out incredible b*******
New Orleans is getting absolutely hammered. The movement of the storm has slowed and the rainfall totals are going to be very large. What has not happened is a lovely failure like had happened in Katrina. If the love is hold you will not get quite the total disaster that that one was. But there is no certainty at the moment that they will hold and even if they do since the storm has slowed you're going to have some serious flooding problems anyhow.
Just watch the news as it unfolds. My guess is you will have very serious River flooding coming tomorrow and for 2 days afterwards in the neighborhood. I also don't think things are nearly as Rosie as the weather people are saying at the moment in the area. Based on what I see in the radar and satellite imagery it's a very big mess.
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on August 29, 2021, 03:22:49 pm
JOW
Link:
https://www.theage.com.au/world/north-america/hurricane-ida-makes-landfall-in-louisiana-with-winds-stronger-than-katrina-20210830-p58mzo.html
TEXT:
‘Very dangerous place’: Hurricane Ida smashes Louisiana hospitals full of COVID patients
By Rebecca Santana
Updated August 30, 2021 — 8.50amfirst published at 4.08am
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New Orleans: Southern Lousiana’s hospitals, already packed with coronavirus patients from a fourth surge of the coronavirus, were dealing on Sunday with another challenge — the howling Category 4 hurricane pounding the coast.
“Once again we find ourselves dealing with a natural disaster in the midst of a pandemic,” said Jennifer Avegno, the top health official for New Orleans.
Canal Street in New Orleans as Hurricane Ida makes landfall.
Canal Street in New Orleans as Hurricane Ida makes landfall.CREDIT:BLOOMBERG
Lady of the Sea General Hospital in Lafourche Parish, near where Ida made landfall, reported extensive roof damage. “All patients and staff are fine at this time without injury; although, our hospital has sustained significant damage,” hospital CEO Karen Collins said in a message relayed via Facebook. The hospital’s phone system was down.
“Once it is safe to do so they will evacuate their small number of patients,” state health department spokeswoman Aly Neel said in an email. Details on the number of patients involved were not immediately available.
Ida struck as hospitals and their intensive care units were filled with patients from the fourth surge of the COVID-19 pandemic, sparked by the highly contagious Delta variant and low vaccination rates across Louisiana.
Part of the roof came off the Lady of the Sea General Hospital ripped off by the hurricane winds.
Part of the roof came off the Lady of the Sea General Hospital ripped off by the hurricane winds.CREDIT:TWITTER
Daily tallies of new cases in Louisiana went from a few hundred a day through much of the northern spring and early summer to thousands a day by late July. Governor John Bel Edwards told The Associated Press on Sunday that more than 2400 COVID-19 patients are in Louisiana hospitals, saying the state was in a “very dangerous place with our hospitals”.
The governor also said 22 nursing homes and 18 assisted living facilities have been evacuated though evacuating the largest hospitals was not an option because there simply aren’t other places to send them.
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Anticipating that power could be out for weeks in places, Edwards said a big focus will be on making sure there is enough generator power and water at hospitals so they can keep up with vital patient needs such as providing oxygen or powering ventilators.
“I hate to say it this way, but we have a lot of people on ventilators today and they don’t work without electricity,” he said.
A man takes pictures of high waves along the shore of Lake Pontchartrain as Hurricane Ida approaches.
A man takes pictures of high waves along the shore of Lake Pontchartrain as Hurricane Ida approaches.CREDIT:
Officials at Ochsner Health, which runs the largest hospital network in Louisiana, said roughly 15 of the network’s hospitals are in areas potentially affected by Ida. The network evacuated some patients with particular medical needs from small, rural hospitals to larger facilities.
Warner Thomas, president and CEO of Ochsner Health, said on Sunday that the system decided preemptively to evacuate a smaller hospital in St Charles Parish when the storm’s track shifted a bit east.
He said 35 patients were moved to other hospitals in the region over a little less than three hours.
When it comes to power at their facilities, Mike Hulefeld said, they are in pretty good shape. Three of their facilities in areas affected by Ida were moved to generator power in anticipation of losing city power.
The hurricane made landfall in the United States on Sunday as an extremely dangerous Category 4 storm, set to plunge much of the Louisiana shoreline underwater.
Ida gathered more strength overnight and made landfall near Port Fourchon at 11:55am, the National Hurricane Centre said.
It is the toughest test yet for the hundreds of kilometres of new levees built around New Orleans after the devastation of Hurricane Katrina, which made landfall 16 years ago to the day, inundating historically Black neighbourhoods and killing more than 1,800 people.
Governor Bel Edwards said Ida could be the state’s worst direct hit by a hurricane since the 1850s.
Just three days after emerging as a tropical storm in the Caribbean Sea, Ida had swelled into a Category 4 hurricane on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale with top sustained winds of 240km/h, the NHC said.
Some residents tried to flee, driving through floodwaters along route 90.
Some residents tried to flee, driving through floodwaters along route 90.CREDIT:
Palm trees trembled as rain gusted in sideways through New Orleans on Sunday morning, where retired 68-year-old Robert Ruffin had evacuated with his family to a downtown hotel from their home in the city’s east.
“I thought it was safer,” he said. “It’s double trouble this time because of COVID.”
The NHC warned of life-threatening storm surges, potentially catastrophic wind damage and up to 61 cm of rainfall in some areas. The National Weather Service station in New Orleans warned the many residents who have no interior rooms in their home to move to a closet or bathroom for protection. Some parishes imposed curfews beginning on Sunday evening, forbidding people from going outside.
“We’re as prepared as we can be, but we’re worried about those levees,” said Kirk Lepine, president of Plaquemines Parish on the state’s Gulf Coast.
Some $US14 billion was spent strengthening levees after Katrina, but the stronger walls in many places may still be insufficient in the face of climate change, he said. Climate change has led to more intense and wetter hurricanes in the region.
AP, Reuters
Post by: John of Wallan on August 29, 2021, 11:06:54 am
How are things travelling along the gulf?
JOW
Link:
https://www.zerohedge.com/weather/extremely-dangerous-hurricane-ida-almost-category-5-strength-it-nears-louisiana
text:
Watch Live: Hurricane Ida Makes Landfall In Louisiana; 255K Lose Power; Winds Stronger Than Katrina
Tyler Durden's Photo
BY TYLER DURDEN
SUNDAY, AUG 29, 2021 - 01:08 PM
Summary:
Hurricane Ida made landfall at 12:55 p.m. near Point Fourchon, Louisiana with winds tied for the most intense hurricane on record to strike Louisiana, at 150 mph.
Max sustained winds of 150 mph, tied with two other hurricanes for record landfall
255,000 residents without power
Surge could result in 12-16 feet of inundation; so far the surge has reached at least 4 to 7 feet in southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi, engulfing roads, homes, businesses and marinas. New Orleans’ flood protection system, bolstered by a $14.5 billion investment post-Katrina, will be tested by Ida’s surge and torrential rain.
The storm could unload up to two feet of rain in parts of southeast Louisiana, causing severe flash flooding.
Downed trees and widespread power outages could last weeks
The core of the storm’s hurricane-force winds could pass through Houma and Baton Rouge and very close to New Orleans, producing structural damage, downed trees and widespread power outages, which could last weeks.
(Update 1430ET): According to Bloomberg calculations, Hurricane Ida could cause more than $40 billion in damages and losses based on its projected path according to an estimate from Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler at Enki Research. That would put it among the top 10 costliest U.S. storms, if a far cry from Katrina's $176 billion.
In addition to ripping through New Orleans, the storm is poised to batter oil refineries, chemical plants and ports. Meanwhile, according to BSEE, Gulf Operators have shut 95.7% of oil output on the hurricane. Oil explorers in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico have shut 1.74 million barrels a day of crude production and 93.8% of natural gas output as Hurricane Ida approaches, according to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement. 288 platforms have been evacuated as of 11:30 CT Sunday.
At least 255,000 customers are without power according to poweroutage.us.
(Update: 1305ET): Hurricane Ida has made landfall in Louisiana with stronger winds than Hurricane Katrina - which hit New Orleans exactly 16 years ago today, killing over 1,800 people and leaving the area in ruins - not to mention disarmed.
🌀 @NHC_Atlantic has declared landfall of Hurricane #Ida at 1155 am CDT as a Category 4 hurricane with max sustained winds of 150 mph and a minimum central pressure of 930mb over Port Fourchon. https://t.co/7iYQ3NXNtA
— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) August 29, 2021
Only two other storms on record have hit Louisiana with winds this powerful, Last Island Hurricane in 1856 and Hurricane Laura (2020).
"I feel sick to my stomach watching," National Hurricane Center forecaster Eric Blake tweeted on Sunday (via BBG). "This is a very sobering morning."
"This will be the most severe test of that system," said Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards in an appearance on CNN, adding "We believe that the integrity of that system is going to be able to withstand the storm surge."
Earlier in the day, Ida was projected to drive ocean levels as high as 16 feet, with rainfall in excess of two feet.
Winds will be strong enough to rip roofs from houses, and snap trees and power poles. Blackouts could last weeks. About 33,000 homes and businesses were without power at 9:30 a.m. local time, according to Poweroutage.us, which tracks utility outages. -Bloomberg
The live cams should get interesting over the next several hours:
* * *
Hurricane Ida has rapidly strengthened into a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 150 MPH, just seven mph shy of a Category 5. The storm is set to strike Louisiana later this afternoon/evening, and on the same day, 16 years ago, Hurricane Katrina struck the area.
As of 0600 ET, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) plane flew into the storm and found Ida is an "extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane about to make landfall in southeastern Louisiana later today."
Reports from an NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 935 mb (27.61 in).
An elevated NOAA C-MAN station at Pilot's Station East near Southwest Pass, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 82 mph (131 km/h) and a gust to 107 mph (172 km/h). Another NOAA elevated C-MAN station at Southwest Pass recently reported a sustained wind of 77 mph (124 km/h) and a wind gust of 93 mph (150 km/h).
Ida is currently over the Gulf of Mexico where it could strengthen even more before making landfall around 1800 ET.
A Hurricane Warning has been posted for Intracoastal City, Louisiana, to Pearl River, Mississippi.
Storm surges could be significant across Louisiana and Mississippi. For instance, a 10-foot to 15-foot storm surge is forecasted from Morgan City, Louisiana, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. A storm surge of 5-8 feet is possible for Lake Pontchartrain.
The Weather Prediction Center warns Southeast Louisiana could expect up to 8-16 inches of rain.
Metropolitan New Orleans is expected to get swamped by the hurricane and has prompted residents to evacuate or shelter in place. Bloomberg says, "the levee gates will close in many areas, hospital wards in the region are being cleared out, oil refineries and offshore production are shutting down, and thousands of residents are fleeing for their lives."
The menacing hurricane "could damage close to 1 million homes along the U.S. Gulf Coast" and cause upwards of "$220 billion," CoreLogic report said Saturday.
The property and data analytics firm is worried that a dangerous storm surge could hit 941,392 properties in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
Finally, as Mike Shedlock notes, oil production is going to face serious disruptions:
Ida's projected path has made it a threat to the vast oil refining and petrochemical complex situated along the U.S. Gulf Coast, though the storm's more easterly track Friday suggested it would miss the heart of those operations in Texas and along the Texas-Louisiana border.
Refineries in Louisiana and Mississippi had started to reduce or halt output, which will lead to some gasoline-delivery delays.
Projections have Ida sweeping through the bulk of U.S. offshore oil production, located south and southeast of Louisiana, said Andy Lipow, president of Houston-based consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates. He expects as much as 90% of offshore oil output to close ahead of the storm.
"Hurricane Ida is showing up probably in the worst possible location for oil production," Mr. Lipow said.
Here's a list, courtesy of Bloomberg, of all major oil and gas production sites shuttered and their capacity in barrels per day.
Shutting all oil and natural gas platforms; volume not specified
Average net daily production in 2018 was 186,000 barrels of crude, 105 million cubic feet of natural gas and 13,000 barrels of NGLs: website
Exxon Mobil Corp. began evacuating personnel from its Hoover platform; minimal impact on production
Ports:
Coast Guard sets condition Zulu for New Orleans
LOOP paused deliveries until after storm
Refineries:
Phillips 66’s 255k b/d Alliance began idling units Friday
PBF is reducing rates at 190k b/d Chalmette
Shell began shutting 230k b/d Norco
Marathon is shutting production at 578k b/d Garyville
Valero is idling production units at 125k b/d Meraux
ExxonMobil’s 520k b/d Baton Rouge is running at ~50% capacity ahead of Ida
Expect higher gas prices and energy outages especially in the impacted regions.
Here's a live feed of the New Orleans skyline.
As the storm makes landfall this afternoon/evening, we will provide updates as needed.
Post by: K-Dog on August 29, 2021, 12:40:20 am
Quote
but their maths was even worse than GM's.
The one time I met GM I identified myself as an engineer (EE). I said: Guy, I have a question about the feedbacks you are talking about. Your numbers.
He had to act like he had something important to say to somebody standing next to us whom he was traveling with with right away.
https://youtu.be/U3-koNJMJ34
Post by: tonyprep on August 28, 2021, 09:52:10 pm
The real information on the Climate Crisis is bad enough without having to artificially inflate the predicament. However, climate scientists are almost as bad, the other way, as they usually try to tell us that there is still time to "avoid the worst impacts" whatever that means, years or decades after telling us our behaviour must change from yesterday. There is no way to avoid warming of 1.5C (and we're already near "catastrophic" with 1.2C).
Still, it's going to be interesting to see where this goes over then next decade or two (not sure I've got the long, but I hope so because this is so fascinating!).
Post by: Phil Potts on August 28, 2021, 04:03:43 pm
Hence....DOOM!!! Hopefully more interesting to be around for than the one pegged to the end of the Mayan calendar.
I stood on an iceberg in the Arctic once. It was neat. Might not be able to do it again I suppose.
What is Guy's current time estimate of the end? And is it still pegged to the BOE? Perhaps he has introduced another mechanism to widen the gap between that and when his survival in the soon to be hellish heat-scape where he lives in New England is at risk?
I really don't follow GM for the reasons stated above. In this video he says we aren't going to make it to 2030. In the article it seems to focus on 2026. There are plenty of qualified folks writing on the subject these days - so I don't need to listen to someone who pisses me off and with whom I would not drink beer. Blanket statements like "the end of all life on earth" strike me as sensationalist, presumptuous and self-serving. Also wrong. There is life in Yellowstone hot springs, the bottom of the ocean and clinging to the space shuttle.
We face (as a species) many risks. I would put major nuclear conflict that wipes out the Northern Hemisphere right up there with catastrophic climate change. Just one old fart's opinion.
I can't hear him mentioned now without shuddering, thanks to being reminded of his truly cringeworthy erotic penmanship that surfaced through some disappointed dalliance. That's after I was already certain he was full of crap, setting up shop in Belize near the equator.
I'm going to rinse out the mcP with an order of Orlov. Other than neglecting to mention the Soviets outright genocide in Afghanistan, he sums up my take on things, entirely.
https://cluborlov.wordpress.com/2021/08/28/the-afghanistan-rout-and-american-glasnost/
I would only add that the MIC gravy train, afghsnistan boondoggle has another reason to to be cancelled now, similar to what we see in Sydney:
https://gab.com/SomeBitchIKnow/posts/106826202962276967
No different to the Roman withdrawal from Britain, when the legions were needed back home. They employed thousands of native Britons setting up a whole economy, while force feeding their religion and system. Like Afghanistan where no more than 30% of the country was ever under control, the Romans never controlled Scotland, Ireland or much outside their fortifications, only conducting raids to raise tribute and instil fear.
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: RE on August 28, 2021, 03:37:05 pm
I really don't follow GM for the reasons stated above. In this video he says we aren't going to make it to 2030. In the article it seems to focus on 2026. There are plenty of qualified folks writing on the subject these days - so I don't need to listen to someone who pisses me off and with whom I would not drink beer. Blanket statements like "the end of all life on earth" strike me as sensationalist, presumptuous and self-serving. Also wrong. There is life in Yellowstone hot springs, the bottom of the ocean and clinging to the space shuttle.
We face (as a species) many risks. I would put major nuclear conflict that wipes out the Northern Hemisphere right up there with catastrophic climate change. Just one old fart's opinion.
I remember when Dr. McStinksion had a lifeless planet by 2016. The alarmism gets tiring, particularly since it is so obviously wrong. One thing I guarantee is he will go extinct long before the rest of life on earth does.
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on August 28, 2021, 05:16:34 am
Hence....DOOM!!! Hopefully more interesting to be around for than the one pegged to the end of the Mayan calendar.
I stood on an iceberg in the Arctic once. It was neat. Might not be able to do it again I suppose.
What is Guy's current time estimate of the end? And is it still pegged to the BOE? Perhaps he has introduced another mechanism to widen the gap between that and when his survival in the soon to be hellish heat-scape where he lives in New England is at risk?
I really don't follow GM for the reasons stated above. In this video he says we aren't going to make it to 2030. In the article it seems to focus on 2026. There are plenty of qualified folks writing on the subject these days - so I don't need to listen to someone who pisses me off and with whom I would not drink beer. Blanket statements like "the end of all life on earth" strike me as sensationalist, presumptuous and self-serving. Also wrong. There is life in Yellowstone hot springs, the bottom of the ocean and clinging to the space shuttle.
We face (as a species) many risks. I would put major nuclear conflict that wipes out the Northern Hemisphere right up there with catastrophic climate change. Just one old fart's opinion.
Post by: John of Wallan on August 27, 2021, 07:05:52 pm
Ida is shaping up to be a good one. Deja Vu Katrina time.You will be getting them in Alaska shortly at this rate.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/08/27/tropical-storm-ida-track-headed-gulf-coast-could-devastating-hurricane/5615040001/
RE
JOW
Post by: RE on August 27, 2021, 05:00:49 pm
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2021/08/27/tropical-storm-ida-track-headed-gulf-coast-could-devastating-hurricane/5615040001/
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on August 27, 2021, 12:49:27 pm
Well, He-who-shall-not-be-named was certainly right on one point. "We're screwed."
Any document like the IPCC report has immense political/economic baggage. I was surprised they were as doomy as they came across. The corporate elite smell a profit, so some of the truth is allowed to seep out. You can bet they only were as negative as they needed to be to keep some veneer of credibility with the science community. Hold out some hope for people - even if there is none. The situation is very bad. It doesn't end well.
There are still many people who deny the climate is changing - or at least they deny that humans have anything to do with it. More bizarre weather and crop failures will only fanaticize them further. Personally, I don't care if the warming and extremes are being engineered by reptiles from Andromeda to make the place more like home. The trend is obvious, accelerating and cannot be stopped. It's way too late.
McPherson has a snide, I-told-you-so attitude that makes it difficult for me to sit through his stuff. Attitude aside, I find the approach interesting for a guy who has been predicting the end of world in 5 years for the last 15 years or so. He could certainly be correct this time - or close to it. But, maybe not. Thankfully there are many people in this field that do not share his often-wrong-but-never-in-doubt approach.
Post by: John of Wallan on August 27, 2021, 01:53:56 am
JOW
Link:
https://www.axios.com/july-earths-hottest-month-extreme-events-ipcc-aa4436e1-77be-42f2-b63c-452e79ac56dd.html
Text:
Extreme weather defined Earth's hottest month
Andrew Freedman
Andrew Freedman
Reproduced from NOAA; Chart: Connor Rothschild/Axios
July was the hottest month on record worldwide, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
Why it matters: When it comes to establishing new climate milestones, the Earth is on a roll, thanks in large part to the burning of fossil fuels for energy, as well as deforestation.
The monthly temperature record news dropped in the same week as the dire climate report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
That report makes clear that global warming can no longer be viewed as a problem simply for future generations — its effects are already here.
The report was the climate science equivalent of the horror movie trope: "The phone call is coming from inside the house."
Details: The Northern Hemisphere land-surface temperature was the highest ever recorded for July, at an unprecedented 2.77°F (1.54°C) above average, NOAA found.
The month was the hottest month on record for Asia and second-hottest for Europe.
During July:
California saw a spate of wildfires worsen, as did Oregon, Montana and other Western states. One of the fires that began in July, known as the Dixie Fire, is now California's second-largest blaze on record.
Brutal heat waves hit Europe and Asia, and vast stretches of Siberia went up in flames, choking population centers with smoke and haze.
Turkey set record highs, which helped set the stage for wildfires that broke out in August. Parts of Japan broke temperature records, and Northern Ireland broke its all-time heat record two days in a row.
Yes, but: Climate scientists don't pay very close attention to individual calendar months, but rather to long-term, 30-year-plus trends. But in both cases, the trend lines are clear: The world is getting warmer, quickly, as greenhouse gas concentrations in the air climb.
It is nearly certain that 2021 will rank among the top 10 warmest years on record, most likely at No. 6 or 7 on NOAA's list. That is despite the presence of a La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean that helped keep global average temperatures lower for a time.
What they're saying: “This new record adds to the disturbing and disruptive path that climate change has set for the globe,” said NOAA administrator Rick Spinrad.
Post by: John of Wallan on August 26, 2021, 10:20:15 pm
JOW
Link:
https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/ipcc-report-may-have-underplayed-risk-of-freak-el-ninos-and-la-ninas-20210820-p58klm.html
Text:
IPCC report may have underplayed risk of freak El Nino and La Nina events
Peter Hannam
Australian scientists have challenged the latest UN-backed global warming report, saying it underestimated the likelihood major weather events driven by processes in the Pacific will become more extreme as the planet heats.
Research published in Nature Reviews journal just days after this month’s release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report found the latest models show the frequency and ferocity of El Nino and La Nina events will increase this century.
Two big El Ninos, forming in 1997 and 2015 in the Pacific. The climate patterns swing between periods of lower activity to more active ones, with global consequences.
Two big El Ninos, forming in 1997 and 2015 in the Pacific. The climate patterns swing between periods of lower activity to more active ones, with global consequences.CREDIT:NASA
The results also argued that events based on extreme sea-surface temperatures had increased during the past 60 years compared with the 1901-60 period, and large so-called El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events since the mid-20th century were larger than any time during the past few centuries.
Those findings, though, were at odds with the IPCC report, which argued there was a “medium confidence” that “there is no model consensus for a systematic change in intensity of ENSO sea surface temperature variability over the 21st century in any of the [carbon emissions] scenarios assessed”.
The IPCC’s verdict surprised the paper’s lead authors, Wenju Cai from the CSIRO, and Agus Santoso, a climate researcher based at the University of NSW. While their paper missed the January cut-off to be considered by the IPCC for its report, it was based on model data already available for IPCC reviewers.
“Most of the models are showing sea-surface temperature variability” as a driver of future extreme events, Dr Cai said. “I don’t know how they missed it.”
Dr Santoso said: “It’s quite surprising to me as well,” and “monster El Ninos will start appearing”.
Understanding how El Ninos and La Ninas will change in a warming world will be vital. Although the weather patterns emanate in the Pacific, they have global impacts, ranging from droughts and bad bushfire seasons in Australia, to altered rainfall patterns in California and the Brazilian Amazon.
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The Nature Reviews paper said the latest models indicate the frequency of El Niño events with extreme rainfall impacts to double from about one event per 20 years from 1890–1990 to one every decade during 1990–2090 even assuming global mean temperature rises stabilise at 1.5-2 degrees above pre-industrial levels.
John Fyfe, a lead author of the IPCC’s section on ENSO and a research scientist at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, said the new paper was “a very welcome contribution to the understanding of projected changes in extreme sea surface temperature and rainfall fluctuations in the tropical Pacific”.
Professor Fyfe, though, said the magnitude and significance of projected changes can depend on the comparison period. The IPCC looked at 2081-2100 against 1995-2014 while the Nature paper compared the 21st century against the 20th. “For this reason, the two approaches have come to somewhat different conclusions,” he said.
Dr Cai, though, said it was baffling such a short period was used. “It’s not appropriate to use 20 years as your baseline,” he said, noting it can make a big difference which decade is used for comparison.
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Dietmar Dommenget, an associate professor at Monash University’s School of Earth Atmosphere and Environment, said the IPCC’s short comparison period was “problematic”. The 1995-2014 period was within two years either side of big El Nino or La Nina events, so a minor shift would produce a different result, he said.
Professor Dommenget, though, noted that both the research paper and IPCC study identified a warming influence on rainfall patterns even if there remains greater uncertainty over how sea-surface temperatures might affect the intensity of the major weather events.
Professor Fyfe said the increase in ENSO amplitude because of human activities had yet to be identified in observations. “Everything we are talking about here is in ‘model world’,” he said. “This is acknowledged in the IPCC report and in [Dr Cai’s paper].”
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Post by: John of Wallan on August 26, 2021, 10:16:51 pm
Interesting article.
Very interesting links.
Hey, it even has a video from that guy that everyone hates apparently and I am not allowed to mention... His data is apparently flawed because of his bad character.... Or is it his character because of bad data?
Anyway check it out. I found it interesting and more troubling.
We still seem to be in a La-Nina weather cycle. Wet, cooler conditions in SE Oz. Expecting a wet spring.
When next we get into an El-Nino is when I expect us to get dry and toasty.
Gives me more time to prepare.
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
Is the IPCC creating false perceptions, again?
IPCC AR6 Report
The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report (WG1 AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) raises the question: Is the IPCC seeking to downplay the dire situation that we are in, again?
Downplaying the temperature rise from pre-industrial
One of the first issues that comes up is the baseline. The IPCC uses 1850–1900 as a baseline, like it did before (in SR1.5). This is one out of many instances where the IPCC creates a perception that it would take many years before the 1.5°C threshold would be crossed. This 1850–1900 isn't pre-industrial. The Paris Agreement calls for pre-industrial as a base.
The IPCC image on the right shows a 1.09°C rise from 1850–1900. This isn't the rise to the year 2020, but it is the rise to the period from 2011 to 2020.
Instead, when taking the 2020 temperature rise and going back one century, NASA data show a 1.29°C rise from 1920, and this is a conservative figure, as 0.1°C can be added to translate NASA's sea surface temperatures into ocean air temperatures and another 0.1°C can be added for higher polar anomalies, which brings the temperature rise up to almost 1.5°C and this isn't the full rise from pre-industrial by a long shot.
Furthermore, the IPCC uses seasonally-biased data to "reconstruct" the temperature rise before its baseline, making it look as if there was no rise before its baseline.
Instead, the rise from pre-industrial to 1920 could be as much as 0.3°C (1750 to 1920) + 0.2°C (1520 to 1750) + 0.29°C (3480 BC to 1520).
Adding up the rises for all these elements gives a total rise from pre-industrial to 2020 that could be as high as 1.29°C + 0.1°C + 0.1°C + 0.3°C + 0.2°C + 0.29°C = 2.28°C, as highlighted by above images and as further discussed at the pre-industrial page.
In February 2016, the temperature
was 1.70°C higher than in 1900
(i.e. 1885-1914, the 30-year period
centered around the start of 1900)
Ignoring peak peril by averaging over long periods
The map on the right shows that the average global temperature was 1.70°C higher in February 2016 than around 1900 (i.e. 1885-1914). The map also shows local anomalies as high as 15.1°C and even higher peaks were reached on specific days.
This raises questions as to how the thresholds set at the Paris Agreement should be measured, i.e. is a threshold deemed to be crossed when the anomaly from pre-industrial crosses the threshold for a month, or for a year, or for a decade? Wouldn't a long period effectively grant polluters a long grace period to keep polluting? When in doubt, wouldn't downplaying the danger violate the precautionary principle?
When building a bridge, an engineer will calculate how much load it can handle by first looking at how many heavy trucks will be using the bridge at times of PEAK traffic, rather than to average the weight of all vehicles on the bridge over a 30-year period. Caption and image by Sam Carana from earlier post.
Downplaying the near-term temperature rise
The Paris Agreement calls for politicians to limit the temperature rise to well below 2°C from pre-industrial, while calling upon the IPCC to describe pathways to achieve this.
Instead, the IPCC comes up with five scenarios. The only two scenarios for which the rise remains well below 2°C are SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 (images right).
The position of methane is of vital importance in these scenarios. As a requirement for both the SSP1-1.9 and SSP1-2.6 scenarios, methane emissions would need to have fallen since the year 2015. Even for SSP2-4.5, for which 2°C does get crossed, methane emissions would need to fall.
So, have methane levels fallen since 2015?
According to NOAA, the methane level in the atmosphere was:
in 2015: 1834 ppb
in 2016: 1843 ppb
in 2017: 1850 ppb
in 2018: 1857 ppb
in 2019: 1866 ppb (the level given by the IPCC)
in 2020: 1879 ppb
Note also that above NOAA data are for marine surface data. At higher altitudes, even higher levels show up. The image on the right shows that the MetOp-1 satellite recorded a mean global methane level of 1954 ppb at 293 mb on August 24, 2021, pm.
Mind you, the IPCC report does include some frightening images, such as one with CO₂ levels as high as 1200 ppm by 1200, corresponding with a temperature rise of up to 8°C (Figure 4.3) and one with a temperature rise of as much as 17.5°C by 2300 (Figure 4.40). What the IPCC doesn't mention is that at 1200 ppm CO₂e the clouds tipping point would get crossed that results in an additional 8°C temperature rise. With a high rise in methane levels and the GWP for methane calculated over a short horizon, such a huge temperature rise could eventuate within a few years time. The IPCC downplays the methane threat by simply excluding the potential for a high rise in methane levels, while using a 100-year GWP for methane and while also waving away the potential for strong methane releases from oceans to the atmosphere.
[ from earlier post ]
For a really high methane emissions scenario, the image on the right shows a trend that is based on NOAA 2006-2020 annual global mean marine surface methane data and that points at a mean of 3893 ppb getting crossed by the end of 2026, a level less than twice as high as the recent 1954 ppb mean methane level.
Such a high mean methane level by 2026 cannot be ruled out, given the rapid recent growth in mean annual methane levels and with double-digit growth sustained beyond 2020 to date. It is deceptive to assume that methane levels have fallen and will continue to fall, the more so since the IPCC doesn't point at the most effective policies to achieve this.
By how much would such a doubling of the methane level raise the total carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) level for greenhouse gases? A methane level of 3893 ppb would translate into 583.95 ppm CO₂e (at a GWP for methane of 150 for a 9-year horizon) or 778.6 ppm CO₂e (at a GWP for methane of 200 for a 5-year horizon).
The image below right shows trends based on IPCC AR6 GWP values pointing at a GWP for methane of 150 for a 9-year horizon and points at an even higher GWP for a shorter horizon.
A short horizon is quite appropriate given that the above trend points at the possibility of such a high level for methane getting reached by 2026.
But even with less methane, when using a short horizon for the GWP of methane and adding the impact by 2026 of further greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, water vapor, etc.), that would cause the 1200 ppm CO₂e clouds tipping point to get crossed that results in an additional 8°C temperature rise.
Given that humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise, and a 5°C rise will likely end most life on Earth, the IPCC could have given a little more warning that a huge temperature rise may happen over the next few years.
Natural variability acts as a catalyst in this case. Within a few years time, sunspots will be reaching the peak of their cycle, and they are looking stronger than forecast.
An upcoming El Niño could raise surface temperatures significantly. The image below indicates that the difference between the top of El Niño and the bottom of La Niña could be more than half a degree Celsius.
The image on the right indicates that the current La Niña is forecast to end early 2022. As temperatures keep rising, ever more frequent strong El Niño events are likely to occur, as confirmed by a recent study. Authors also confirm concerns that this IPCC report has downplayed the threat that a super El Nino event could occur soon.
Another large contribution to the upcoming temperature rise is the falling away of the cooling provided by sulphur that is currently co-emitted by industries such as coal-fired power plants, shipping and smelters.
[ from earlier post ]
As cleaner alternatives become more economic, and as calls for cleaner air become stronger, this could result in a strong temperature rise soon, as discussed at the aerosols page.
As illustrated by the bar on the right, there are many further elements that could dramatically push up the temperature soon. Altogether, the rise from pre-industrial could increase to more than 18°C by 2026.
Decline of Arctic snow and ice can result in huge albedo losses, loss of latent heat buffer, jet stream changes, more and more extreme weather events, and more. Slowing down of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and increasing ocean stratification can result in less heat getting transferred from the atmosphere to the depths of the ocean, as also described at this page.
One of the largest threats is seafloor methane and despite repeated warning from some of the best experts in the field, the IPCC simply waves away this threat. This and other elements in the bar have been discussed in detail in many earlier posts such as this one and on the extinction page.
Given these huge threats, how could the IPCC give the impression that there was a “carbon budget” to divide? The IPCC downplays the size, speed and ferocity of the temperature rise in many ways. What motivates the IPCC do this? One reason could be that the IPCC seeks to create the perception that there was such a “carbon budget” left to be divided among polluters, so they could comfortably keep adding further pollution for another decade or more.
Sam Carana, restating a 2013 quote:
[ from the Quotes page ]
“There is no carbon budget to divide between polluters, instead there is just a huge debt of CO₂ to be removed from the atmosphere and the oceans. Comprehensive and effective action must be taken to combat run-away warming.”
It should have been obvious by now that there is no “carbon budget”. Instead, there's only a huge and very dangerous carbon debt. There is no room for trade-offs or offsets, and terms such as negative emissions are simply inappropriate. All efforts should be made to cut emissions, including ending current subsidies for fossil fuel and livestock, while carbon could and should additionally be removed from the atmosphere and oceans. And even then, it's questionable whether any species, let alone humans, will be able to survive the coming decade, so additional action will need to be taken as well.
Excluding the most appropriate policy tools, while instead advocating polluting pathways
The IPCC creates a perception that pollution could continue for decades to come, by downplaying the temperature rise and by downplaying the threat of a huge rise within years, while promoting the idea that there was a “carbon budget” to be divided among polluters that would enable polluters to keep polluting for decades to come. Again, the IPCC has failed to do what the Paris Agreement calls for, i.e. for the IPCC to specify the pathways that will give the world a better future, specifically the policies that are needed to facilitate a better future.
In the video below, Guy McPherson also discusses the report.
Conclusions
This IPCC report should be returned to be rewritten, to instead focus on the best policies to facilitate the necessary changes. The scientific evidence in favor of what needs to be done is overwhelming, from all kinds of perspectives, while it's also simply the right thing to do. Most effective are feebates, i.e. imposing fees on polluting products while using the revenues to support rebates on better alternatives, and feebates are especially effective when implemented locally. Studies on the effectiveness of feebates were made available as early as 2005 and feebates have been discussed by the IMF, the OECD and the UN, and have been implemented in various ways, e.g. in the Clean Car Programme in New Zealand. The situation is dire and calls for the most comprehensive and effective action, as described at the Climate Plan.
Post by: RE on August 14, 2021, 07:48:32 pm
Yesterday was intolerable. Hot. I have to go water the garden and I will cook in the sun for a few minutes. What adds icing to the cake is fire smoke from god knows where has drifted in. Everything more than a quarter mile away has a special patina. The air has a tint.QuoteAnother sweltering heat wave is set to hit Seattle on Thursday and Friday, and temperatures are expected to peak in the upper 90s in most areas.
It's hard to imagine how much longer all this can go on without something, somewhere of a critical nature failing catastrophically. The stress on the Seattle grid must be enormous with all the HVAC compressors running full blast 24/7. Imagine a Power Blackout coming around now.
Meanwhile, hospitals down south are overflowing with the latest COVID spike while the Stock Market marches onward in good BAU fashion. Samsung issued its latest Foldable Phones and Gadget Watches and endless streams of Refugees line up to leave one already failed state to go to a new soon to fail one. Trumpovetsky and his Base of Dimwits blather on while Uncle Joe regurgitates the same old failed policies.
My food menu is better than it was in the Gulag, but my appetite is so small it doesn't really afford me very much pleasure. I burn almost no calories sitting around all day doing aboout nothing. I'm not sure what the minimum caloric intake is to maintain your metabolic functions, but I am there. There are no Demented Zombies in my abode to bother me, but nothing to interest me at all either. The big event of the day is to go out shopping for something with my dimwitted PCAs which I really don't need to do but it's hard to find things for them to do puttering around a basically empty apartment. I have even become bored with my own fantasies of living in pre-Columbian Turtle Island or as a Navigator sailing a cat-rigged canoe to Hawaii or a Viking sailing around raping and pillaging the coast of old Britania. I am always of course a Chief or Head Honcho of some sort, nobody is ever a drone worker bee peasant in their fantasies. At this point I would even support a Nazi takeover, as long as they put me first in line for the Gas Chamber.
Human beings occasionally display intelligence, bur on a social system level are no more advanced than am Ant Colony or Hive of Bees. The whole history of Homo Sapiens has become as boring to me as my own life is.
Anyhow, I am not in pain, work is proceeding with a new fake leg and I still get to check in once a day to find out the latewst newz on how civilization is imploding on itself. So it goes.
RE
Post by: K-Dog on August 13, 2021, 01:08:53 pm
Quote
Another sweltering heat wave is set to hit Seattle on Thursday and Friday, and temperatures are expected to peak in the upper 90s in most areas.
Post by: RE on August 12, 2021, 03:45:06 pm
Also Italy, Greece and Eurotrashland in general.
Fortunately, Alaska still remains tolerable without the A/C. :)
Notice how the excessive heat is concentrated in the Urban locations. All that asphalt, of course.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lZdDrDbth0g
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on August 07, 2021, 03:44:08 pm
JOW
Link
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
Siberian Permafrost Turns Carbon-12 Tap On: Radiocarbon Diminishing in Air
by Veli Albert Kallio
[ image by Peter Carter of Climate Emergency Institute ]
We at Sea Research Society's Environmental Affairs Department are very concerned of the melting permafrost terrain and methane clathrate deposits of the Arctic Ocean's sea bed (which are seeding Siberia's air once again with carbon-12). This is because Arctic Ocean's methane clathrates, methane (CH4) & carbon dioxide (CO₂) deposits are thought to be the world's largest reservoir of carbon. When it comes to methane, much of that in the Arctic is a side-product of geochemical processes since the birth of our planet some 4 billion years ago and so it contains ZERO radiocarbon (14C). To these are added the various undersea and land-based deposits of ancient fossil carbon which too have zero or just minute content of carbon-14.
We see already the Arctic at a tipping point, reaching a cliff edge to zero carbon-14 presence in tundra's plants emerging over recent years.
Above should set off alarm bells to archaeologists so much so that if carbon-14 can now disappear from the observed portfolio of the carbon isotopes in the plants and animals by radiocarbon-dilution effect from both the ancient geo-carbon and also the fossil carbon sources on land and sea bed. One of the key pillars to calibrate not only radiocarbon dating, but other methods as well that have been indirectly calibrated with the help of carbon-14 as their control measurements, is being attacked by the furious Mother Nature. We stand now on an increasingly elastic and shifting sands on this question. And why just now?
The answer to this is straightforward: the man-made global warming. So, now recall that the Arctic Ocean's sea level fell between some 120-130 metres from its present-day water table during the Ice Ages as water accumulated within the glaciers on the land - and that depressurisation (in addition to warming) is actually the primary route to destroy methane clathrates as it disintegrates at lower water pressures. The broad rule is therefore that the less water in ocean, the more methane clathrate (methane ice) begins to disintegrate.
Methane clathrates (methane ice deposits) as the world's biggest carbon reservoir would have inevitably oozed out copious amounts of carbon-12 into air during the lowering of the Ice Age era ocean water table. At the same time, the ice-filled and cold world oceans were mopping away gases from the air far more intensively than they do today leaving little atmospheric carbon-14 behind in this process. The atmospheric carbon is very rich in radiocarbon if compared to carbon in water courses and oceans - let alone in the ancient soils. This is because carbon-14 forms in atmosphere from nitrogen due to cosmic radiation. As cold liquids hold more gases than warmer liquids, it is not much of hocus pocus for radiocarbon to disappear from the air into these ice-filled and cold oceans teeming with much more marine life than today.
Today there are over 27,000 recorded methane craters discovered on the Arctic Ocean's sea bed and many have diameter of 1 km or wider. The largest methane crater found so far is 750 km² in its area and has the lost from its deposit thickness over 300 metres (and all of that is pure carbon-12 that was originally within methane ice, of course).
Ethnoclimatology Motion UNGA 101292 which the United Nations Secretary-General Javier Pérez de Cuéllar authorised for tabling on the floor of the UN General Assembly - as the closing plea of the opening proceedings of the first UN Year of Indigenous Peoples - stipulated a faster case history for the Ice Ages period where global warming was initially driven by methane releases from the seabed while carbon dioxide emerged later as the respondent to the warming by high altitude methane. This then tipped the trajectory of the world's constantly cooling climate at the Last Glacial Maximum towards global warming (methane molecule-to-molecule to carbon dioxide molecule is 256 times more powerful in trapping sun's heat). This system tipping point reversed the cooling of the Ice Ages from the earlier snowball-earth runaway global cooling trajectory (which resulted from the continuously advancing snow lines of the Ice Ages that were heading towards the Equator).
The last time methane came to "save the earth" from runaway freezing (snowball earth), but at our current situation we have triggered its instability by the unforeseen levels of carbon dioxide now at 420 ppm that forms a very-difficult-to-get-rid-of background climatic forcing. This issue of carbon-12 from the frozen polar regions, called cryosphere, is not just for the archaeological community and about the timing of our historic events in the distant past to be understood more accurately, but it is a real existential threat today for our society. This time methane is not coming to us from the ground as our saviour like it was during the Ice Ages, but it is now our foremost enemy after our man-made releases of carbon dioxide.
Carbon dioxide released today lingers in air for 1000 years or even more, although bouncing back-and-forth with surface layers in the oceans, but it is only very gradually disappearing from the air by chemical weathering by the olivine group rocks or soils containing olivine group minerals. Also, very deeply penetrated plant roots lock carbon gradually away as well as the sea plankton if it falls onto the deep ocean bed. It is a grave misconception to think that the plant life is a great natural filter than can sort our mess out. The plants are rather geared to take carbon in as carbon dioxide to only form their leaves, let the autumn come and those same leaves are due to fall onto the ground and turn back into carbon dioxide. Flowers and trees are not any sort of Santa Claus to do that job for us.
As carbon's locking away is not at all immediate as shown above but as it can take thousand years or more to do so, so the same principle applied to the huge releases of Palaeolithic methane (which as lighter-than-air gas resides mainly in the upper troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere). As most of methane has been seen in recent years accumulating at fastest rate at the highest altitudes in the atmosphere - far above the surface - it cannot be very well represented in the ice cores. It simply is neither trapped in the snow crystals very much - and consequently - nor seen in the ice cores (that are basically just taken out of the pack of compacted fallen snow) - as most of methane resides well above the cloud level.
This explains why the global warming - which ended the Ice Ages - appears in the ice cores already centuries to thousands of years before the rising concentrations of carbon dioxide is seen in air trapped in the bubbles of the ice cores. Methane oxidizes best to carbon dioxide in warm and moist air, but during the xeric climate conditions of the ice ages and also amplified by the xeric heights in dry stratosphere, methane oxidised back then far slower than it does today. Thus, the huge heating effect of methane melted the ice sheets of the Ice Ages back into the world ocean and as soon as the sea levels rose, methane clathrates got re-pressurised - while the slip-sliding and collapsing ice sheets and ice shelves produced ice bergs and more sea ice to cool both the oceans and the climate. The supply of new methane from ocean beds soon was cut off and in due course also the permafrost releases also began to diminish as climate began to cool due to growing shortage of methane in air. By Holocene Thermal Maximum or Optimum any further global warming had stopped as by then there was little high altitude methane left in upper troposphere, stratosphere, and mesosphere. As a consequence of this new tipping point, the atmospheric temperature rise ceased and settled for the Holocene equilibrium and then dropped slightly for the next few thousands of years.
The above explains, for example, the radiocarbon-outliers of the earliest Egyptian carbon samples being typically more carbon-14 aged than their actual age. Quite ridiculously, the recent discovery of wood material in relation to the Great Pyramid of Giza, which was built by Pharaoh Khufu was radiocarbon-dated to 34th century BCE. This is more than eight (8) full centuries before the historically-known date when the Great Pyramid of Giza was built.
In fact, the timing of 34 centuries before Common Era is a date that occurred long before even the Egyptian state even existed! Yet, these readings were apparently checked very carefully and cross-checked again. The explanation flirted - which we at SRS are strenuously disputing - is that the Egyptians would have stored the wood for over eight centuries before the put that wood in use to build the Khufu pyramid. This is outrageous stupidity as it is very clear that huge bulk quantities of wood would have been required and which could never have been stored for such a long time before its final use. There simpy weren't even manpower and storage facilities in the 34th century BCE Egypt. Even if the wood would have been first used in the construction of the Sakkara Pyramid, the first pyramid, and then recycled to the Great Pyramid of Giza for re-use, it still would not be sufficiently aged enough to explain the carbon-14 readings obtained as 34th century BCE.
The best (or - better to say - only) explanation to the above is the effect of lingering carbon dioxide in the air remaining centuries to over thousands of years after the Palaeolithic releases of geological and fossil carbon from the Arctic permafrost soils and seabed.
Our whole economy (along history-keeping too) stands and falls if the Arctic methane and carbon dioxide emissions of carbon-12 continue this way unabated as today. The world needs cooling urgently and far less CO₂ perhaps 350 ppm or less. Of course, there is also the separate environmental issue of Siberia's forest fires this year and last (2020 and 2021) with a forest of the size of France said to have been burnt.
Above are serious issues where historic dating of carbon is a minor issue but where the dangers from global warming to human society must remain our supreme concern.
A particularly suspicious case to us is the Japanese Palaeolithic as the island sits east of the vast Eurasian landmass and is exposed to winds from north-west that come via Siberia. In particular the Pandora's Box of permafrost carbon-12 is suspect culprit in these comments:
"Ground stone and polished tools: The Japanese Palaeolithic is unique in that it incorporates one of the earliest known sets of ground stone and polished stone tools in the world .. The tools, which have been dated to around 30,000 BC, are a technology associated in the rest of the world with the beginning of the Neolithic around 10,000 BC. It is not known why such tools were created so early in Japan. Because of this originality, the Japanese Palaeolithic period in Japan does not exactly match the traditional definition of Palaeolithic based on stone technology (chipped stone tools). Japanese Palaeolithic tool implements thus display Mesolithic and Neolithic traits as early as 30,000 BC." (Wikipedia, Japanese Palaeolithic)
The effect of carbon-12 seeding in air - as the westerly winds roll gradually over the terrain of Siberia and Arctic to pick up old carbon on its way to east - is seen to be the greatest in the north-east corner of Siberia (i.e. northern Yakutia) where the plants currently appear sucking in major permafrost inputs of ancient carbon. This would suggest that the northern China would be also quite prone to similar permafrost-based carbon-12 seeding. Then, when one accounts for the blocking effects of the Karakoram and the Himalayan mountain ranges in south and the very limited ability for the air to rise in the thin-air area over the vast Tibetan high plateau, the air is mostly guided towards South-East China that also ought see fairly elevated levels of carbon-12. This creates in my mind a question mark over the Chinese archaeological claim that they created the world's first clay pottery some 10,000-15,000 years before others - the people of the Middle East - let alone, the 'laggards' of Europe.
So, is this then another radiocarbon illusion created by the Mother Earth?
"A 2012 publication in the Science journal, announced that the earliest pottery yet known anywhere in the world was found at Xianren Cave site dated by radiocarbon to between 20,000 and 19,000 years before present, at the end of the Last Glacial Period. The carbon 14 dating was established by carefully dating surrounding sediments. Many of the pottery fragments had scorch marks, suggesting that the pottery was used for cooking. These early pottery containers were made well before the invention of agriculture (dated to 10,000 to 8,000 BC), by mobile foragers who hunted and gathered their food during the Late Glacial Maximum." (Wikipedia, Xianren Cave)
There are other issues than a lack of such old pottery findings in addition to the suggested radiocarbon-dilution effect that archeologists must consider. One reason for not finding pottery, or encountering less of it, would be the mobility and the lack of accumulation of domestic waste in heaps, "tells", as in the Middle East because the people were likely highly nomadic. It might be more practical to use wooden vessels, leather skins and avoid pots by other means like roasting meat over the open fire rather than carrying the relatively bulky clay pots (at least for anything other than for use as a cooking vessel for vegetables, seeds, roots, or herbs). Animals and fish could be roosted on rocks or over the fire as and so the need might be just for an occasional cooking pot. When to the potential mobility is added temporary camping in places away from the rivers and the streams, it is easy to miss out vast majority of pottery left behind on the huge grassland steppes of Central Asia and China.
On the other hand, the idea of clay pots could have spread far faster as useful and easy-to-copy practice to bake clay, and the large c-14 dates might be almost entirely carbon artefacts.
At British Museum's conference Anthropology, Weather, and Climate Change we presented a poster Looking at the Forward Running Clocks' - Carbon Cycles and Time from Pleistocene to Present outlining some prime candidates that we suspected as fallen for the Arctic geo-carbon and fossil carbon seeding effects (a link attached at the end).
The carbon "seeding effects" are not only localised and regional radiocarbon anomalies. There are important anomalies also outside the time scales of these seasonal and regional weather patterns - on a global climate scale. As an indicator of this, there is the already stated anomalous global warming that is seen occurring centuries-to-millennia before the rise of carbon dioxide in air trapped within the ice cores before it is enriched with carbon dioxide. This anomaly (an exceedingly toted argument by the climate change denialists) can be associated with the above said methane leaks from methane clathrates (geo-carbon and fossil carbon) from ocean bed, and methane from permafrost (fossil carbon) at very high altitudes - where the were warming the air well before carbon dioxide arrived to the scene. This carbon sourcing would have seeded also the entire overall global air mass to at least some extent with this extra carbon-12 - though somewhat less than the northern anomalies to create also a somewhat skewed background comparisons level (less "aged" than the higher permafrost emissions seen nearer their Arctic sources) but also radiocarbon-diluted.
In all this, remember, it only takes a doubling of carbon-12 in the air to add one half-life (5,730 years) to the measured radiocarbon age. If you reduce it to a quarter, that is already in the range of over 10,000 years - and it is in these ranges or even more than that - these gigantic Arctic carbon stores painted our ancient biological bodies with extra carbon-12.
We have devised some unique experiments that can fully differentiate any carbon from the above Arctic sources from the naturally occurring portfolio of the carbon isotopes.
I just got the latest methane blobs reported 02:30 am today. These images are far from good although they do not create such a television theatre or environmental **** like the forest fires, floods and hurricanes do. Yesterday's readings are "our canary in a coal mine" to show how badly methane and carbon dioxide are now streaming out from the Arctic permafrost soils and seabeds. Our past trust has been to be over-relying on plain or slightly tinkered readings how to interpret radiocarbon. This will be gone as this is how carbon-12 now enters our biological materials from Northern Asia with its culprit caught red handed.
The revised radiocarbon-oriented vocabulary on the Arctic carbon-12 emissions are: Ice Ages' Last Glacial Maximum (= Sea-Level Drop Maximum) until Holocene Thermal Maximum/Optimum (= Permafrost Melting Maximum). The past ancient methane "blobs" were in a vastly larger scales than those seen here today. As I said above, carbon dioxide concentrations could not get over 180 ppm during the Ice Ages due to the cold and iceberg and sea ice filled oceans dissolving gases from atmosphere far faster than today whilst the carbon-12 taps of lowered seabeds and then melting permafrost remained highly venting. This suppressed atmospheric carbon-14 manifestation for a very long time. Situation on graphics on Tuesday, 3 August 2021; received Wednesday, 4th August 2021 at 02:30 GMT.
Our research of ethnoclimatological records show consistent records in Sumer, India, East Asia, and Mesoamerica that the ethnic time-keeping is consistently pointing towards faster causative, duration and termination history for the Ice Ages and as per UNGA 101292. This is also at the core of my 2023 moon expedition bid to raise alarm on above dangers from the Moon to get the First Nations of Americas ethnohistorical climate recollections taken more seriously and to establish Ethnoclimatology as a new branch of science akin to Ethnobotany.
By Veli Albert Kallio, FRGS | Vice-President, Sea Research Society | Ethnoclimatologist
• United Nations General Assembly Motion 101292 for UNFCCC's Talanoa Dialogue
https://www.academia.edu/36396474/United_Nations_General_Assembly_Motion_101292_for_UNFCCCs_Talanoa_Dialogue
• 'Looking At The Forward Running Clocks' - Carbon Cycles and Time From Pleistocene to Present
https://www.academia.edu/29473262/Looking_At_The_Forward_Running_Clocks_Carbon_Cycles_and_Time_From_Pleistocene_to_Present
Former Director of the Royal Botanical Gardens at Kew, London, Professor Sir Ghillean Prance, FRS, is fully behind me on my moon flight bid to raise alarm bells on above problem. I hope a positive outcome by the end of this month to be included in the moon flight crew.
• Moon Flight Crew Interview of Veli Albert Kallio (Step 3) for SpaceX 2023 Lunar Mission
https://www.academia.edu/50061072/Moon_Flight_Crew_Interview_of_Veli_Albert_Kallio_Step_3_for_SpaceX_2023_Lunar_Mission
Post by: Nearings fault on August 07, 2021, 12:48:26 pm
Oddly enough I'm rereading Kim Stanley Robinson's fifty degrees bellow from about fifteen years ago. It's a trilogy that discusses climate change and a stall of the gulf stream... Most of it holds up very well...Here is a decent article about EV battery repurposing and recycling.
https://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/what-happens-to-old-batteries/
What about now obsolete Ni-Cad wet cell batteries?
In a previous life I used to recycle these. 90% of the time there was nothing wrong with them despite being 50+ yeras old. Were usually replaced as part of a maintenance regime. We even sold a heap of them second hand to farmers for electric fences and electric gates. I also heard of old rubber case batteries being replaced after near 100 years of service in a Sydney phone exchange due to rubber cases degrading and leaking KOh solution, but batteries worked fine otherwise.
I am not a battery expert and know very little about them. I was told they are low energy density but have an incredible service life. They are also very low tech. There was nothing complex when we recycled them. Please correct me if I am wrong on the long life assumption.,
I always thought that simplicity and longevity would be number one and two consideration for long term off grid. particularly in difficult times. It really does not matter if it takes up a bit more space at the homestead I would have thought..
JOW
Post by: RE on August 07, 2021, 09:02:47 am
Get back to me when it actually does collapse. It has been "at risk" for years.
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on August 01, 2021, 04:47:02 pm
Post by: Phil Potts on July 30, 2021, 10:05:26 pm
Happy talk about using the sequestered carbon turbocharging greenhouses and the rest pumped underground, never mentions that being pumped underground for fracking.I hadn't heard anyone suggesting that you sequester CO2 by using it for fracking. Do you have a reference as to who is suggesting this idea?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_oil_recovery
Thanks. So it isn't fracking, just enhanced recovery. Which doesn't even store CO2, other than at a residual level. They recycle it when it comes out with the oil, and pump it back in again. The assumption appears to be that when the field is abandoned, you leave all the CO2 behind. Unfortunate that unless you are required to leave it behind, there is no reason to.
Barely a carbon sequestration scheme at all.
I never assumed it was safely sequestered, that is only what we are told the plan is. I guess the question is what they are pumping it back in to , if they are not leaving it behind. Something like 99% was not accounted for. I imagine if it was sent down during the day at a particular temp and at night the air temp above ground got colder, the C02 would just rise out if it's free to escape.
Post by: Phil Potts on July 30, 2021, 04:09:29 pm
Happy talk about using the sequestered carbon turbocharging greenhouses and the rest pumped underground, never mentions that being pumped underground for fracking.I hadn't heard anyone suggesting that you sequester CO2 by using it for fracking. Do you have a reference as to who is suggesting this idea?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_oil_recovery
Post by: K-Dog on July 29, 2021, 09:35:27 pm
Post by: Phil Potts on July 29, 2021, 07:05:03 pm
https://youtu.be/sFDmbYP-JvA
https://youtu.be/QWolc45cr8k
Post by: Phil Potts on July 29, 2021, 05:41:37 pm
Post by: K-Dog on July 29, 2021, 04:31:14 pm
Quote
Basically if you don't preach doom and gloom today then your career is as good as finished.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcreazilla-store.fra1.digitaloceanspaces.com%2Fcliparts%2F14988%2Ftroll-clipart-md.png&f=1&nofb=1)
100 %
Post by: K-Dog on July 29, 2021, 04:20:33 pm
Behold: A knuckle dragger.
- - -
Quote
impulse9
Member
128 posts
Posted 7 hours ago
@K-Dog have you considered the possibility that you're infected with a mind virus of global hysteria and now you're trying to spread this panic to other people? For all you know, nothing that you've been told is correct. There's plenty of climate scientists who've been violently pushed away from the mainstream or outright fired for stating their opinion. Basically if you don't preach doom and gloom today then your career is as good as finished. The reasonable expectation is that the Earth is indeed warming, it's not nearly as bad as it's portrayed in the media, and we'll get over it one way or the other. Leo's message is much closer aligned to truth than yours.
Apparently Leo cultivates nihilism. The answer to which Leo no doubt has the answer to for $19.95.
I will not respond to this pathetic bait.
***************************
Ah hell I did:
Quote
I can't respect your nihilism impulse9. Telling someone they have a mind virus is insulting. I would prefer Leo answer for himself. Goodbye.
Post by: K-Dog on July 29, 2021, 07:29:40 am
But other things. I started a YouTube video where a guy is talking about the 'social matrix' and how it determines our opinions and defines what our belief in what the universe is.
https://youtu.be/RAqOMGnJ2MQ
I get into it a bit and like what I am hearing. I am still less than 10 minutes in but it was time to stop the video and check this guy (Leo) out. Turns out he is a self help guru with a huge following. He has a website and I registered for the forum. I went straight to the environmental section and landed on mainstream ignorance. Par for the self-help course but why be snarky.
Leo made this post.
Quote
Mankind has survived far worse with far less technical capability.
There is no reason at all why mankind cannot simply suck all the CO2 out of the atomsphere. It's merely a question of the political will to do so. And as suffering increases political will will increase.
We can make the temperature whatever we want on this planet.
You should be more worried about an asteroid strike. Now that would really **** us up.
P.S. We can genetically engineer bananas more delicious than you can imagine. Don't be so myopic.
I responded:
1) Mankind has survived far worse with far less technical capability. <- This is a false argument. Technical capability depends on resources and never before has the world had fewer resources. Technical expression is using tools. Tools work on resources. The population of the world is in overshoot and never before has so little planet had to feed so many.
2) Mankind cannot suck CO2 out of the atmosphere. Political will has nothing to do with it, but science and available resources has everything to do with it. Science and resources say no. We are already fracking rock and boiling sand to get oil and after that all we have left are unicorns.
It is a childish fantasy to think we have the energy resources and the technical expertise to remove CO2 from the atmosphere To reduce C02 by 0.01% would require the sequestration of one billon tons of carbon. At my leisure I will verify the quantitative accuracy of that statement and figure out how big a pile of coal that would be the same as. Geoengineering is a cornucopian fantasy. And as suffering increases political DOES NOT will increase. Confusion and chaos size the day as suffering increases. Often starting wars. Your last claim was nothing more than a wish.
3) This statement has no basis in physical reality whatever. The evidence that climate change is real is now unquestionable and we have no viable solutions to address that problem at this time. As we have a society with a rigid class structure America does not have the social machinery to address the climate emergency.
4)You should be more worried about an asteroid strike. Now that would really **** us up.You should be more worried about an asteroid strike. Now that would really **** us up. <---------- I am going to side with Epictetus
"That alone is in our power, which is our own work; and in this class are our opinions, impulses, desires, and aversions. On the contrary, what is not in our power, are our bodies, possessions, glory, and power. Any delusion on this point leads to the greatest errors, misfortunes, and troubles, and to the slavery of the soul"
Being upset over what you have no power over is the occupation of a fool. You have no power over an asteroid strike.
PS : The banana equivalent to Covid-19 is spreading to new countries, forcing the industry to change how the world’s most widely eaten fruit is farmed and even how it could taste. That is a BBC headline.
And PS PS : You are welcome to look at my matrix of links by which you can explore the climate emergency and diffuse your ignorance. The blinking colored bubbles below the virtual city header on top are all links. Roll your mouse over the hexagonal colored bubbles and websites appear in a text box below the graphic. Don't be offended that you are not yet in the list. I just found out about you.
Post by: K-Dog on July 23, 2021, 10:10:15 am
Quote
With the atmosphere capable of holding 7 per cent more moisture per degree of heating,
Applicable to only one place on the vapor pressure graph, which I will explain. And I have a large quantity of nickel metal hydride batteries. Never used. D cells. About 50 I think. They will turn up as I clean my garage. Good to know they may still be alive. They were going to go into an electric bicycle but life happened.
Post by: John of Wallan on July 22, 2021, 02:04:10 pm
Here is a decent article about EV battery repurposing and recycling.
https://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/what-happens-to-old-batteries/
What about now obsolete Ni-Cad wet cell batteries?
In a previous life I used to recycle these. 90% of the time there was nothing wrong with them despite being 50+ yeras old. Were usually replaced as part of a maintenance regime. We even sold a heap of them second hand to farmers for electric fences and electric gates. I also heard of old rubber case batteries being replaced after near 100 years of service in a Sydney phone exchange due to rubber cases degrading and leaking KOh solution, but batteries worked fine otherwise.
I am not a battery expert and know very little about them. I was told they are low energy density but have an incredible service life. They are also very low tech. There was nothing complex when we recycled them. Please correct me if I am wrong on the long life assumption.,
I always thought that simplicity and longevity would be number one and two consideration for long term off grid. particularly in difficult times. It really does not matter if it takes up a bit more space at the homestead I would have thought..
JOW
Post by: John of Wallan on July 22, 2021, 01:53:09 pm
We have come off a record wet 2020 with a wet summer, and a prediction of a wetter than average spring. Just came through La-nina and read something about Indian Ocean Di-pole predicting wet spring. Iwill try and find the article.
Hotter and wetter seems to be whats happening in SE Oz.
When we get next El-nino is when it will get interesting. Thats when heat comes out of ocean and we end up recored tempos and dry here. Bit Like what West coast of North America is copping now.
JOW
Link:
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/how-the-dynamics-of-a-heating-planet-are-driving-extreme-weather-20210722-p58c1c.html
Text:
How the dynamics of a heating planet are driving extreme weather
Peter Hannam
By Peter Hannam
July 22, 2021 — 4.50pm
The heatwaves and deluges that have inflicted misery on millions of people in the northern hemisphere’s extreme summer reveal just how little is understood about how a heating planet will drive weather change.
Weeks after Canada baked in desert-like temperatures and western US records melted in multitudes, five “heat domes” have formed, spawning what the Washington Post described as an “infestation of heatwaves”. The Los Angeles Times opined about a “hell on earth” as wildfires erupted in the US.
Huge wildfires across the western US states have followed a severe heatwave, made worse by a deepening drought.
Huge wildfires across the western US states have followed a severe heatwave, made worse by a deepening drought.CREDIT:AP
But the intense weather hasn’t been confined to heat. Germany and neighbouring parts of Europe last week copped months’ worth of rain in a day.
Zhengzhou, a city of 10 million people in central China’s Henan province, was swamped by a year’s rain over four days to Tuesday, turning roads into raging rivers and drowning at least a dozen subway rail commuters.
Vehicles are stranded in floodwater near Zhengzhou Railway Station in central China’s Henan province.
Vehicles are stranded in floodwater near Zhengzhou Railway Station in central China’s Henan province.CREDIT:GETTY
Researchers say that assessing the role the warming planet has played in exacerbating these extremes will take time.
Some basic connections are well understood, such as global temperatures have warmed about one degree over the past century and for Australia, the increase is 1.4 degrees.
With the atmosphere capable of holding 7 per cent more moisture per degree of heating, that means there’s more rain available that can be potentially dumped on populations and ecosystems below.
Advertisement
“It’s no longer about climate change, it’s about weather change,” Christian Jakob, an atmospheric scientist at Monash University, said. “The warming of our planet is changing the dynamics of high-impact weather events, and as we have seen just recently, with potentially dramatic consequences.”
Streets and homes damaged by the flooding of the Ahr River in Bad Neuenahr, Germany.
Streets and homes damaged by the flooding of the Ahr River in Bad Neuenahr, Germany. CREDIT:GETTY
Professor Jakob says the focus of climate modelling has largely been to project long-term changes, such as how many degrees the world will heat by the end of the century, based on various scenarios of how much more greenhouse gas emissions we pump into the atmosphere.
However, as these recent weeks have shown, too little is understood about what might happen to the peak of heatwaves, say, or the most torrential of thunderstorms.
“While our overall expectation is that in a warmer world we will see an increase in such events, the details of where, when and how remain elusive,” Professor Jakob said.
Andrew King, a Climate Extremes Research Fellow at the University of Melbourne, said while heatwaves and flooding are a feature of every summer, “what we’ve seen this year has been exceptional in many ways”.
“The temperature records in western North America were a long way off the charts,” Dr King said. “The devastating floods in parts of Europe were unusual and these events in general highlight how we need to build much greater resilience to extremes that will become more common as the world continues to warm.”
One large-scale shift that scientists are interested in is the apparent slowing of weather systems that cause a high-pressure, creating a so-called “heat dome” or rain event to linger over a region.
One potential culprit is the warming Arctic, which is heating at three times the global average, and is an important influence on northern hemisphere weather even at lower latitudes, Dr King said. Research is limited so far but the clues are there.
“Warming over the Arctic and a reduced temperature gradient from the equator to the North Pole may mean that the jet stream and associated weather patterns at the surface stay in the same locations for longer,” he said. “This could lead to heat building up over longer periods and more persistent heavy rain events that lead to worsening floods.”
Professor Jakob said a narrowing temperature range also applies to the southern hemisphere, adding the implications could have a range of consequences.
“Importantly, weather changes are not just important when they are extreme,” he said. “For example, are the day-to-day winds changing and how does that affect where we should put wind farms?”
Most climate models operate at resolutions of 100 by 100 kilometres, so events such as thunderstorms have to be programmed to approximate what might happen at levels planners and the population will want to know. Unfortunately, the computing costs will be enormous to get to the one kilometre resolution needed.
“It’s a paradigm shift” in climate science that’s needed, Professor Jakob said. “It’ll be cheaper, though, than buying submarines or helicopters” to know where and how the weather will change.
Post by: Nearings fault on July 22, 2021, 01:27:41 pm
https://theness.com/neurologicablog/index.php/what-happens-to-old-batteries/
Post by: Nearings fault on July 20, 2021, 12:23:02 pm
This company here is an example of what is to come. Their packs are still too expensive though, almost on par with new lithium batteries . When all those halflife lithium packs get in the hands of off gridders it will be a game changer.
https://volts.ca/products/second-life-lithium-ion-1x-tesla-215?variant=37331711295650¤cy=CAD&utm_medium=product_sync&utm_source=google&utm_content=sag_organic&utm_campaign=sag_organic&gclid=Cj0KCQjw6NmHBhD2ARIsAI3hrM0rymkkyB5ngLdL_75ephzmv-gyYdx1r5zZ3DlhylQgDhtToVNLjRkaAqDIEALw_wcB
Post by: Eddie on July 20, 2021, 07:39:46 am
I am sorry that the VOLT was DC’ed by Chevy. I understand the economics of it, but it’s a shame, because there is a niche for a serial hybrid (or close fascimile to a serial hybrid, which is how I’d describe the Volt). I let my wife start driving it, and now she’s hooked, With a 50 mile range, she almost never puts gas in it.
The 2009 Prius we had went over 150K, and it went the way of most modern cars, with minor electronic systems starting to get glitchy and fail....the AC finally quit working and it’s so complicated do work on, that the shop never quite got it back together right. It has so many harnesses and plugs and it’s all inside the dash. Not made to work on at all. Great while it lasts.
I’m contemplating the upcoming full electric Chevy Silverado that is coming out...I think maybe next year or the year after. But I like hybrids and hate to see them get phased out.
Post by: Nearings fault on July 20, 2021, 02:33:31 am
Post by: Phil Potts on July 20, 2021, 01:18:15 am
my batteries are now 7 years old, and 6 years old, and why in the world would I be replacing them every 4 years when they are doing just fine, headed to half again to twice as much longevity?
I see a lot of 'i get 40 mpg from a 10 yr old prius', but thats about right for any 1.5 litre little car. I'm thinking a 5 yr old prius probably gets 50 mpg and a new one 60mpg. I suspect hybrid owners batteries are fine after 7 yrs because the car doesn't lose range, just burns more gas.
Electric only cars will probably be getting 80% range after 5-7 yrs if they charge slowly like at least 4 hrs, not if they get fast charged every day.
I got junior a full mechanics set of Milwaukee impact driver, cordless screwdriver, electric ratchet and wheel nut rattle gun cordless. I figured 5 yr warranty can't go wrong. After 3 yrs I asked if he needs new batteries, he said they're still fine. I thought the charger was a fast charger but it's probably a slower one and that's how they make the warranty 5yrs. Builders who fast charge cordless tools every day only get 3 yrs out of batts and most warranty are 3 yrs.
Post by: John of Wallan on July 19, 2021, 03:30:54 pm
The world is full of morons and has gone completely crazy.
JOW
Link:
https://www.drive.com.au/news/ford-creates-petrol-fume-fragrance-for-electric-mustang-mach-e/?utm_campaign=syndication&utm_source=smh.com.au&utm_content=article_3&utm_medium=partner
Text:
Ford creates petrol fume fragrance for electric Mustang Mach-E
Some electric cars have fake petrol engine sounds, now there is a fake petrol smell.
Joshua Dowling
Ford of Europe has created what it describes as a “premium fragrance” for those who miss the whiff of petrol in the new electric Mustang Mach-E.
A better description might be a premium unleaded fragrance.
For now, though, the Ford Mustang Mach-E petrol-inspired fragrance is not available to the public to buy, but there’s a chance this potion could put someone else on the scent of creating something similar.
Mach-Eau GT was created by fragrance supplier Olfiction, with input from Pia Long, an associate perfumer in the British Society of Perfumers who has previously worked with some of the world’s most famous perfume brands, according to Ford in a media statement.
Ford said the fragrance was inspired by “chemicals that are emitted from car interiors, engines and petrol” – including benzaldehyde, “an almond-like scent given off by car interiors”, and para-cresol which is “key in creating the rubbery scent of tyres”.
Ford says these scents were blended with ingredients such as “blue ginger, lavender, geranium and sandalwood that added metallic, smoky and further rubbery accents”.
Meanwhile, a Ford-commissioned survey claims one in five drivers said the smell of petrol is what they’d miss most when swapping to an electric vehicle, “with almost 70 per cent claiming they would miss the smell of petrol to some degree”.
“Petrol also ranked as a more popular scent than both wine and cheese, and almost identically to the smell of new books” among car enthusiasts, said Ford.
Ford revealed the fragrance at last weekend’s Goodwood Festival of Speed in the UK.
“Judging by our survey findings, the sensory appeal of petrol cars is still something drivers are reluctant to give up,” said a Ford of Europe spokesperson. “The Mach-Eau fragrance is designed to give them a hint of that fuel-fragrance they still crave.”
Post by: Phil Potts on July 19, 2021, 12:49:18 pm
Can you not get it in your neck of the woods, or have you just not checked availability lately? And of COURSE climate change is a wild card, it is probably the greatest long term investing wild card going on right now.
Do you buy ocean front property now, while it is still 5m above sea level, or not?Quote from: Phil PottsAlan Kohler is as mainstream as you can get.
I'll take your word for it, not having a clue who he is.
Here in Oz, a builder was telling me a couple of weeks ago most of the Victorian plantation was burnt and there's nothing on the racks at suppliers. I guess that's why there seemed to be triple the log trucks lately here in Tassie, they have to harvest more to ship to the mainland. No doubt more native forest then gets cleared to try and make up for what's been cut early. Keep in mind the fires were a couple of years ago, but where the tree needs to be probably ten years old, it's not an easy thing to restore full capacity.
On EVs, I'm not talking about the pros and cons of individuals owning them (at current price of petrol/diesel and road taxes paid only at the pump). I'm talking about the possibility of mining the lithium and other rare earth minerals to build, charge daily or nightly with renewable energy and dispose of at least a billion batteries as big as a single bed mattress every 4 years.
In the article Kohler does adress your argument: " and yet most of us are still driving petrol cars and eating steaks and hamburgers, and governments are still talking about targets 30 years away (or not, in Australia’s case)".
I'm saying don't pay attention to what hasn't happened, pay attention to what is happening. What policies are being planned and legislated to achieve no net emissions in 29 yrs. Do cattle farmers in Belgium block roads in protest of being put out of business to cut the cows methane. Did bill gates become the largest owner of farmland in the US so he can have tractors and other machines belching emissions on it. Does he intend cutting it's vegetation down to stubble or doing more for photosynthesis. Is there a connection with the world's largest insect protein plant being in the US instead of India or Africa. Are dairy farmers here put out of business by not having access to rivers and the price of milk kept lower than bottled water. Other people bought the water in the river that the farmers father thought he owned.
I don't read Kohler twice mentioning an end to the banking industry as necessarily only if climate change makes half the planet uninhabitable, as he mentioned. I read that as cultivating our minds to consider and accept an end to the banking industry, because it depends on GDP growth, which depends on population and consumption growth.
I don't know about the rest of you, but I see with a lot of the people I know, they're in their 30s and don't own a property or can only do it with help of a boomer parent. Even if they're a couple, they have no kids. There you have it, not supporting the banks with 30yrs of mortgage and house payments and when they're gone, no new consumers to take their place (if there is even enough habitable environment). It's reasonable to ask if this is a chicken and egg conundrum; the pressure on resources causes pressure on cost of living, causing decline in population.
Post by: John of Wallan on July 19, 2021, 12:40:38 am
I for one do not for one second think EV's will replace ICE vehicles to transport us like we enjoy today.
Nope.
It will be ICE until there is nothing, and we go back to horse and cart.
Technology wont save us. It may just buy us a bit more time to screw things up a bit more until we start to screw things up a lot less all of a sudden.
I just think this will happen a bit sooner than a lot of people expected.
JOW
Post by: Phil Potts on July 18, 2021, 11:01:46 pm
What does the panic button look like?
The Great Dieoff happening by the end of the 1980's?
I appreciate the extra 30 years we've had instead, and like everyone else, every morning, wonder if this day will indeed be the day. 30 years of waiting, you can understand that some are unlikely to get their panties in a wad with every iteration of the rinse-repeat-recycle thing. Now...get a BOE arriving, and causing everyone in S. Louisiana and Galveston and all of Florida dying of wet bulb death, and I'm guessing more folks will perk up to the importance of the topic.
As far as the future...well....there are no facts in the future, and there are no side cases in the past.
Like I said: All the while those with vested interest downplay issues.
JOW
Who is it that predicted die off by end of 80s anyway, out of curiosity?
Club of Rome commissioned Limits to Growth in 1970, released 1972:
After reviewing their computer simulations, the research team came to the following conclusions:[1]:23–24
Given business as usual, i.e., no changes to historical growth trends, the limits to growth on earth would become evident by 2072, leading to "sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity". This includes the following:
Global Industrial output per capita reaches a peak around 2008, followed by a rapid decline
Global Food per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed by a rapid decline
Global Services per capita reaches a peak around 2020, followed by a rapid decline
Global population reaches a peak in 2030, followed by a rapid decline
Growth trends existing in 1972 could be altered so that sustainable ecological and economic stability could be achieved.
The sooner the world's people start striving for the second outcome above, the better the chance of achieving it.
If you look at Morgan Stanley 'the rise of the sheconomy', they're predicting by 2030 the majority of women age 20-50 will be single and childless in the US. Spain, Italy and Japan are already predicted to have half the population by 2100.
So even though builders can't get the timber to build houses after the bushfires, climate change is just a wild card.
Alan Kohler is as mainstream as you can get. He's speaking for the plans of the real power players letting us know in advance what they have in store. Lockdown to flatten the curve leading to all sorts of things above and beyond flattening the curve were a trial run of the panic button described. No non essential air travel, for one. The whole GDP growth economic system is planned to be packed up is what they're clearly telling us. Money as metaphor for resources and energy. Take note of the last feature described. Lithium and rare earth get very valuable. So there's no total replacement of the number of cars on the roads now with EV. The environmental destruction of mining the lithium and rare earth, plus the battery disposal and recycling alone, makes it improbable. Then there's the question of what type of power charges them. Kohler and FT is letting us know it ain't really happening Virginia. You walk down to buy a bug burger. If you don't see much of a future ahead, you add not
even wanting offspring to every other barrier to bringing them into being.
Post by: John of Wallan on July 18, 2021, 09:51:08 pm
What does the panic button look like?
The Great Dieoff happening by the end of the 1980's?
I appreciate the extra 30 years we've had instead, and like everyone else, every morning, wonder if this day will indeed be the day. 30 years of waiting, you can understand that some are unlikely to get their panties in a wad with every iteration of the rinse-repeat-recycle thing. Now...get a BOE arriving, and causing everyone in S. Louisiana and Galveston and all of Florida dying of wet bulb death, and I'm guessing more folks will perk up to the importance of the topic.
As far as the future...well....there are no facts in the future, and there are no side cases in the past.
Like I said: All the while those with vested interest downplay issues.
JOW
Post by: John of Wallan on July 18, 2021, 02:58:27 pm
JOW
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: John of Wallan on July 18, 2021, 02:51:05 pm
All the while those with vested interest downplay issue.
JOW
Link:
https://thenewdaily.com.au/finance/finance-news/2021/07/19/climate-change-panic-alan-kohler/
Text:
FINANCE FINANCE NEWS
6:00am, Jul 19, 2021 Updated: 2h ago
Alan Kohler: The climate change panic button is coming
climate change alan kohler
Governments need to hit the panic button on climate change, writes Alan Kohler. Photo: TND/Getty
This week it’s floods in Germany, 170 dead and terrible devastation.
A few weeks ago people were dying from the heat in Canada, which reached about 49 degrees Celsius in Lytton, British Columbia.
Wildfires are now breaking out across North America.
This is from the global warming that has already occurred, which is about 1.2 degrees above the pre-industrial age.
The world is now trying to stop it going above 1.5 degrees by getting emissions down to net zero by 2050.
Even if we succeed in that, which is far from guaranteed, the extreme weather events will be significantly worse and more frequent than they are now.
But at what point will governments hit the real panic button?
Because net zero by 2050 is not it.
Weighing up risk
The reason many are still negotiating, prevaricating and putting it off is that governments and businesses are not looking at global warming in terms of risk, but are using scenario analysis instead.
For example, the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority issued a draft prudential practice guide on climate change in April, which included 4 degrees of warming as one of its two “scenarios” for banks to use in their future planning.
A 4 degree rise in the average global temperature would make large parts of the planet uninhabitable and lead to the total collapse of the banking system. No need for any planning.
The other APRA scenario was for 2 degrees of warming or less, consistent with the Paris Agreement, which should happen if all countries meet their Paris pledges, which so far they’re not.
And even under that scenario, the banking system barely survives.
There was nothing especially wrong with APRA’s guidance note – it was just a typical example of the arse-covering required by bureaucrats and corporate executives to cover their environmental, social and governance (ESG) obligations, with a paper trail to prove they did it.
But it highlights the problem with using scenarios instead of risk analysis.
germany floods july 2021
The recent floods in Germany were the latest example of devastating climate change. Photo: AAP
Since most countries are now committed to net-zero emissions by 2050, even though the policies to achieve that have not been implemented, everyone can assume that the scenario of 1.5 degrees is locked in – a likelihood of 100 per cent. But that’s not correct.
Even then there would still be a two-thirds risk of it being 2 degrees instead of 1.5, because of feedback loops caused by more carbon dioxide being released by the warming that has occurred.
Current policies, unchanged, would result in 2.4 degrees of warming, which would be terrible, but there would be a high risk (about 67 per cent) of 3 degrees, which would be catastrophic.
Lessons from AstraZeneca
Precise risk analysis of global warming is difficult because feedback loop tipping points are unknown and unpredictable.
It’s known that with 1.5 to 2 degrees of warming, the combination of permafrost melt in Siberia, wildfires in the world’s forests and warming of the ocean will release more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, which means a feedback loop could take the temperature to 2.5 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures – and perhaps beyond – no matter what we do.
I was reminded of the power of risk analysis by the recent reaction to the risk of blood clots and death from the AstraZeneca vaccine.
It appears to be something like one in 88,000, or 0.0011 per cent to get a clot.
If that happens, the chance of then dying is 4 per cent, which boils down to a 0.00044 per cent chance of dying from having the AstraZeneca vaccine.
On the strength of that risk, the UK discontinued AstraZeneca for under-40s and the Australian medical authorities have warned against it, and people are shunning it in droves and waiting for Pfizer.
The risk of catastrophe and even extinction as a result of global warming is a lot higher than 0.00044 per cent and yet most of us are still driving petrol cars and eating steaks and hamburgers, and governments are still talking about targets 30 years away (or not, in Australia’s case).
Climate panic button
Whatever the temperature gets to – whether it be 1.5, 2, 3 or 4 degrees of warming – it would be a global average, uneven across the planet.
Anything much more than 1.5 degrees and heatwaves in some parts of the world would make them too hot to survive for some of the year, so humans couldn’t live there at all.
Daily life everywhere else would be an unbearable succession of extreme weather events, as we are seeing in Germany at the moment.
Sea level would rise by 1.5 to 2 metres, making many coastal and low-lying areas uninhabitable.
As a result, millions, possibly billions, of people would be displaced making a mess of global borders.
Banking and insurance would become impossible. The financial system would collapse.
What’s the risk of that? 10 per cent? 1 per cent?
Even if it was 1 per cent, that would be like two or three planes a day crashing after take-off in Australia – which would lead to zero take-offs until it was fixed.
At some point well before 2050, governments will be forced to switch to risk analysis for climate change, and to publish the result.
Unless scientists say the risk is zero – which they won’t – then whatever they come up with, political leaders will be forced to hit the panic button by alarmed voters.
What does the panic button look like?
I’m not sure, but here are some thoughts: Fossil fuels would be suddenly and totally banned, or made prohibitively expensive, and oil, gas and coal would instantly go bust; physical tourism would be banned and air travel confined to essentials and rich elites so the airline industry would collapse; the lithium battery and hydrogen would suddenly boom.
And so on.
Life would change more completely than it has during the pandemic.
In short, it would look like war.
Alan Kohler writes twice a week for The New Daily. He is also editor in chief of Eureka Report and finance presenter on ABC news
Post by: K-Dog on July 12, 2021, 05:47:41 pm
Concerning investments signed in blood. Yield on the timescale of eternity is very low.
Post by: Eddie on July 11, 2021, 02:30:05 pm
The world is AWASH in money chasing return. Oil company stock, all moral and political objections aside, currently represent a good investment opportunity.
Post by: K-Dog on July 10, 2021, 08:02:04 am
Quote
The beauty of a global depression is that the technical folks, when asked to restart some technical project or another, and being laid off or starving, would happily and enthusiastically get back into the traces to plan and execute new projects I imagine.
I agree but if there is no money to pay them they won't work on a project for free.
So what happens? I am thinking of a mix of politicians and other assorted **** as being ingredients of a cake put in the oven to bake. What comes out? What flavor? You take a fork and try a piece. It takes like fascism.
When the EROEI is so low capitalism can't fund oil extraction there may be other ways?
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fauschwitz.net%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2017%2F07%2Ffactory-at-Auschwitz.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
Where there is a will there is a way. This is true. But is there a situation where technical challenges are so great and the costs so high that money says it has better things to do than fund an oil extraction project that require billions be spent before a dime is made?
As it is now what happens when all the people who invested in fracking figure out they won't get paid? How long can private profit be propped up with public money before pitchforks come out?
I think the days of the snazzy uniforms will soon return if you know what I mean. Necessity being the mother of invention and all that.
Post by: K-Dog on July 09, 2021, 03:41:06 pm
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.terra-drone.net%2Fglobal%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2019%2F08%2FShell-Leman-offshore-3D-drone-UAV-mapping-survey-platform-3D-10.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
The tumor becomes harder to feed.
Post by: John of Wallan on July 08, 2021, 01:15:59 am
1. I dont know why Guy left Belize. I really dont care. Perhaps you should ask him if you want to know about his personal life. I wont make assumptions. He could a saint or the devil himself. Play the ball not the man.
2. I cant recall any of the stuff I have read or listened to saying world will end from peak oil in 2014. Please provide the links. Sounds unlike anything I have read about peak oil. Play the ball not the man.
3. I was 10 in the 1980 as was Guy plus or minus a few years as far as I can tell. Cant recall him being active in the doom and gloom business back then. Is this character assassination of all people who see bad things in the future because of bad predictions in the past? Play the ball not the man.
4. I cant predict the future with certainty. I dont know if any of the other disasters you mentioned are going to happen any time soon, but I can see climate problems coming based on data, models and observations. Perhaps you need to look at them. Let me know which ones you find issue with the data, and play the ball not the man.
5. If the stuff I post upsets you, please dont read it. I am not trying to upset you or anyone else. I am just sharing information I find interesting and relevant to what I see around me. I really do try to only post credible sources and I will try my best to not make **** up or post stuff which is not data driven. I will also do my utmost to not mention the professor you seem to have issues with... Cant recall mentioning him recently. If you take issue with the data I post please point out the errors. I really do hope my boys future is better than its looking. Play the ball not the man.
JOW
Post by: John of Wallan on July 07, 2021, 03:31:05 pm
Lots of reputable Data says we are headed for an ice free arctic soon.
Any time in next 5 years is soon by my measure. I dont see complete collapse in a year or 2. That will take a decade +/- a decade.
No ice up north will play havoc (More havoc) with weather patterns by all the stuff I have read.
If you know better please share.
I get it, you dont believe the doom and gloomers saying the world will end tomorrow, so any warnings of collapse must also be wrong, unless its in 100 years when you are dead and you can go along with business as usual.
You dont like Guy M. I get that too. Play the ball not the man. Pick holes in the data instead of taking the easy option of character assassination. Should be plenty of dirt on me if you look hard enough...
10 years, 20 years or 50 years is still short term when we are talking about the potential disruption from climate change.
JOW
Post by: John of Wallan on July 07, 2021, 12:50:44 am
Stock up on the popcorn, the show will be epic.
JOW
Link:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
Tuesday, July 6, 2021
Arctic sea ice disappearing fast
Above image, from the National Institute of Polar Research in Japan, shows Arctic sea ice extent at a record low for the time of year, on July 4, 2021, at 8.4 million km².
Subsequently, the NSIDC also indicated that Arctic sea ice was at record low extent for the time of year, on July 5, 2021, at 8.867 million km² (image above).
Arctic sea ice is getting very thin rapidly, threatening the latent heat tipping point to get crossed soon.
The U.S. Navy animation on the right shows Arctic sea ice thickness (in m) for the 30 days up to July 4, 2021, with eight days of forecasts included.
As sea ice gets thinner, ever less ocean heat gets consumed in the process of melting the subsurface ice, to the point where - as long as air temperatures are still low enough - there still is a thin layer of ice at the surface that will still consume some heat below the surface, but that at the same time acts as a seal, preventing heat from the Arctic Ocean to enter the atmosphere.
Albedo loss, latent heat loss and changes to the jet stream can dramatically amplify the temperature rise of the water in the Arctic Ocean, with the danger of causing destabilization of hydrates at its seafloor, resulting in eruption of huge amounts of methane from hydrates and from free gas underneath the hydrates.
And while the situation in 2021 is dire, the outlook for the years beyond 2021 is that things look set to get progressively worse.
Outlook is getting worse
This situation in 2021 is the more remarkable given that we're in a La Niña period, as illustrated by the NOAA image on the right showing a forecast issued July 5, 2021, that indicates that La Niña is expected to reach a new low by the end of 2021.
El Niño events, according to NASA, occur roughly every two to seven years. As temperatures keep rising, ever more frequent strong El Niño events are likely to occur. NOAA anticipates the current La Niña to continue for a while, so it's likely that a strong El Niño will occur somewhere from 2023 to 2025.
Sunspots are on the rise. We were at a low point in the sunspot cycle late 2019/early 2020. As the image on the right shows, the number of sunspots is rising and can be expected to rise further as we head toward 2026, and temperatures can be expected to rise accordingly.
According to James Hansen et al., the variation of solar irradiance from solar minimum to solar maximum is of the order of 0.25 W/m⁻².
Temperatures are currently also suppressed by sulfate cooling, and their impact is falling away as we progress with the necessary transition away from fossil fuel and biofuel, toward the use of more wind turbines and solar panels instead. Aerosols typically fall out of the atmosphere within a few weeks, so as the transition progresses, this will cause temperatures to rise over the next few years.
So, the outlook is grim. Even so, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
Links
• National Institute of Polar Research (NIPR) in Japan
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop
• The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) at the University of Colorado Boulder
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph
• NOAA ENSO Evolution
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
• Naval Research Laboratory of the U.S. Navy
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
Post by: John of Wallan on July 05, 2021, 01:26:28 am
Interesting article.
Pretty well sums up what I think; short term economic and social problems for next 5 years followed by eccosytem collapse and death in the 5 years after that.
Simple really.Short term pain followed by long term death. ;D
JOW
Link:
https://thesenecaeffect.blogspot.com/
Text:
Sunday, July 4, 2021
Climate Change and Resource Depletion. Which Way to Ruin is Faster?
What could bring down the industrial civilization? Would it be global warming (fire) or resource depletion (ice)? At present, it may well be that depletion is hitting us faster. But, in the long run, global warming may hit us much harder. Maybe the fall of our civilization will be Fire AND ice.
The years after World War 2 saw perhaps the fastest expansion and the greatest prosperity in history for humankind. Yet, it was becoming clear that it was exactly this burst of prosperity and expansion that was creating the conditions for its own collapse. How long could humankind continue growing an economy based on limited natural resources? How long could the human population keep increasing?
The discussion soon split into two main lines: one focused on depletion, the other on pollution. Over the years, the "depletionists" concentrated on fossil fuels, the main source of energy that keeps civilization moving. Initially, the disappearance of fossil fuels was seen simply as a necessary step in the progression toward nuclear energy. But the waning of the nuclear idea generated the idea that the lack of fossil energy would eventually bring down civilization. The collapse was often seen as the result of "peak oil," the point in time when oil production couldn't be increased anymore. It was estimated to occur at some moment during the first 2-3 decades of the 21st century.
On the other side, the focus was initially on pollutants such as smog, heavy metals, carcinogenic substances, and others. Pollution was generally seen as a solvable problem and, indeed, good progress was done in abating it in many fields. But the emerging idea of global warming soon started to be seen by "climatists" as an existential threat to humankind, or even to the whole planetary ecosystem. The time scale of climate change was never exactly defined in terms of momentous events, but as a gradual temperature rise that could play out over a century or more. Some climatists spoke of "tipping points," e.g. the "methane explosion," that could have brought rapid ruin to humankind. But it was impossible to estimate the time scale of these events and the majority of climatists tended to regard those who expressed these views as scare-mongering catastrophists.
Climatists and depletionists were looking at the same scene, just from two different viewpoints. But human beings notoriously have difficulties in changing their views. Their minds seem to become easily fixed on a single problem, and they tend to play the game of "my problem is bigger than yours" So, climatists and depletionists found it hard to work together and, often, they became bitter enemies of each other. It was a dispute that reminded the struggles of the Medieval Christian Church between heretics and orthodoxes (with the orthodoxes defined only after the debate had ended, sometimes with the members of other side burned at the stake).
Depletionists were often geologists who had no training in climate physics. Sometimes they would scoff at the idea of climate change as the delusion of a group of pseudo-scientists who played with models unrelated to the real world. More often, they would not attack climate science directly, but argue that the depletion of fossil fuels would solve all climate problems: no oil, no emissions. Then, no emissions, no climate change.
On their side, climatists were often specialists in atmospheric physics. They were heavily focused on climate models while tending to rely on industrial estimates for the available fossil resources as external parameters in their calculations. They tended to see these resources as abundant and believe that curbing emissions to avoid a climate disaster would make depletion irrelevant.
It was a clash that could not be solved by discussions among people who were speaking different scientific, and even political, languages. Peak oil had its moment of popularity during the first decade of the 21st century, then it faded out. Climate change, instead, kept making inroads in the global memesphere, despite the dogged resistance of several lobbies and political sectors. By the end of the 2nd decade of the century, it seemed to have become something that could be actually acted upon.
The reasons for the tilt of the debate to favor climatists may have been more than one, but overall it may well be that it was because it is much easier to worry about a problem that is more distant in time. Politicians could comfortably claim that they were doing something useful while proposing that the airlines could run their planes on biofuels or that cars could be run on "blue hydrogen." Peak oil may have arrived, probably as early as 2008 for conventional oil, but it was simply invisible to the eyes of the public and of the decision-makers.
Ours is an age of "either-or" positions (you are either with us or against us, as G.W. Bush famously said). All along the debate, it was impossible to propose a compromise that took into account both problems, depletion and warming. Nevertheless, already in 1972, the study titled "The Limits to Growth" had tackled the problem in a holistic way (image by Magne Myrtveit). The computer model used in the calculation didn't share the limitations of the human mind and could simply compute the results of the interactions of the various factors. At that time, the importance of climate change was not yet clear, but the "pollution" parameter was later recognized as representing the effects of greenhouse emissions.
The results of the "base case" scenario computed in "The Limits to Growth" study (see the figure, below) indicated a probable collapse of the industrial civilization for some moment of the second decade of the 21st century. It was intended to be the illustration of a trend rather than a prediction, but it may have turned out to have been remarkably prophetic.
But what was the cause of the collapse? Depletion or pollution? The answer was "both," but the model showed that the peaking of the production of natural resources coincided with the start of the decline of the industrial system. Pollution (climate change) arrived later and its effect was mainly to make the decline steeper, generating a typical "Seneca Cliff."
This result made a lot of sense: pollution is a consequence of resource exploitation and you would expect it to arrive after that depletion has played out its cycle of growth. Yet, it was also possible to create scenarios using the "Limits" model where pollution had such negative effects to become the main driver of the collapse. As usual, the future can be imagined but not predicted. In 1972 it was way too early to presume to be able to predict what was supposed to happen 50 years later.
But things kept moving and, in 2009, Dave Holmgren systematized and arranged the collapse question in a semi-quantitative quadrant that indicated several possible futures that depended on the interplay of depletion and warming. Holmgren didn't take a specific position on what was the most immediate threat, but his diagram provided guidelines to assess just that.
And here we are: in 2020 Holmgren's scenarios were reviewed by "Rutilius Namatianus" (RN) in a series of three posts on "The Seneca Effect" (one, two, three). He arrived at the conclusion that -- just like in the "base case" scenario of The Limits to Growth -- depletion is arriving faster and hitting us harder. According to RN, the reaction to the 2020 pandemic is mostly an effect of the economic system being on the verge of collapse because of depletion, even though the public has not realized that yet.
Like other depletionists, RN is skeptical about the existence of human-caused climate change. Apart from that, though, his position makes sense. Right now, it is difficult to find a sector of the economy so badly damaged by global warming that it might cause the system to collapse. So, the crash of 2020 may be attributed to the constraints generated by the gradually increasing costs of the exploitation of natural resources for a growing economy and an increasing population.
A civilization based on conspicuous consumption cannot keep going for long when there is little left that can be consumed. Hence, we are seeing a series of correlated changes: less traveling (especially by plane), the collapse of the tourism industry, the contraction of the entertainment industry, less commuting, and the reduction or the disappearance of other wasteful activities that we can't afford anymore. All that is officially just temporary and things are supposed to return soon to "normal," that is to the best of worlds. But we may reasonably doubt that. Instead, we may well be seeing the start of the Seneca Cliff that "The Limits to Growth" had already seen in its scenarios of 1972.
Does all that mean that climate change is not a problem anymore? Not at all. Surely, the economic crash of 2020 is reducing the human impact on climate, but as I noted more than once complex systems always kick back (a quote by John Gall). We still have to receive a kick from Earth's climate that may be much worse than anything we received so far (*). What we are doing to the ecosystem might turn out to be just a moderate perturbation, with the system kicking back to its original state in a few millennia -- or maybe even just in a few centuries. In this case, some forms of human civilization could survive the change. Or the ecosystem may kick us up all the way to the Eocene, with a temperature of 12 C higher than it is now. That won't necessarily mean the extinction of the human species, but it would not be unlikely.
And here we are, laughing at the pitiful attempts of the so-called "decision-makers" to stop the tsunami with teaspoons. We are both spectators and actors of the grandest spectacle in the history of the world: the end of the mightiest civilization that ever existed. No matter how our future will be playing out, remember that the destiny of soap bubbles is just of shining gloriously in the sun for a short while. Universes may be little more than a shower of soap bubbles in the sun, just on a grander scale. As we fade out, there will be new universes and we may even be able to create a few ourselves. Humans may have done a lot of damage to the ecosystem, but surely they never lacked fantasy!
(*) In 2012 I wrote a post on "Cassandra's Legacy" titled "Confessions of a Peak Oiler" that some people interpreted as if I had reneged the peak oil movement. But it was not that (otherwise I would have titled it "Confessions of a FORMER peak oiler.") I just made the point that the climate threat was bigger than the depletion threat, not that it didn't exist.
Post by: Phil Potts on July 03, 2021, 01:48:35 pm
I think Oz is going to feel the effects of climate change at substantially more destructive and dangerous levels than most other places in the short term future.
The last 2 summers didn't have any heatwaves that I know of, and I did ask people on the mainland. Still, going with summer of 2018-19, Xmas day in Adl was predicted to be around 30C. I said that would be wrong, Adl is my home town and every year I've been there over Xmas, it is 36-38C on Xmas day. Turned out to be in that range.
It was also the first summer I spent there since 1998-99 and the first time I experienced a couple of 45+ days. Luckily they were dry. Both times something under the bonnet failed. Brushes in alternator burnt out in a 3.8 GM V6 the first, at 45c and aircon compressor on a Toyota Hilux the second time at 48C. I'd never seen anything higher than 41 there last century.
I've had 41 or even 42 in Perth WA a couple of times, as long as I drank lots of water was not even uncomfortable. It's dry and breezy there.
Tropical north has become hotter in monsoon season with less rainfall. With near 100% humidity that can kill you at 39, being over your body temp. So there's been adapting of people who work outdoors starting at 5am and finishing at 2pm.
Here I'm my highland locale, we just had 5 weeks of heavy fog and dark sky, with a lot of rain. Coastal areas have winds to move some of that cloud away. What is the effect on growing winter vegetables? So many things like that need to be figured out and adapted to. Erratic weather and temperature extremes.
Post by: K-Dog on July 03, 2021, 01:21:31 pm
Quote
Your continuous strident doomer’s bias is getting kinda old. You could benefit from a little humility. I’m not your enemy. I also am far from stupid, in case you haven’t seen from my past ten years of writing.
A continuous and strident doomer bias is appropriate to an ADMIN of a forum named GLOBAL COLLAPSE. To have Thor's hammer here you have to have the bias.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fstatic.billboard.com%2Ffiles%2Fmedia%2Fmadonna-like-a-virgin-cover-billboard-650-compressed.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
Or is Madonna still a virgin?
Post by: Nearings fault on July 03, 2021, 10:34:47 am
Post by: Eddie on July 03, 2021, 10:18:04 am
But humans are nothing if not adaptable. We haven’t even gotten that smart about it yet. We’re hung up on stopping the unstoppable when we should be giving more thought to figuring out how to survive it.
I am not a climate change denier by any means. I just think the models are not going to be perfect, and that the kind of climate chaos that is occurring will have some consequences that are probably different than current expectations. This is based on my observations of what is going on here where I live.
I think it’s interesting to see the American Northwest and Western Canada getting gobsmacked while here at the northern edge of the Sonoran desert we’re getting rain. That is not something I would have expected five years ago.
Post by: John of Wallan on July 03, 2021, 02:31:52 am
There is no mystery to me. Difference in temp from pole to equator used to drive winds in predictable patterns.. A polar jet stream made winds circulate around the arctic making weather consistent. Now the stability of circulating jet stream winds fails and weather becomes chaotic. The temp difference made things more stable,
I understand how the jet stream works. But I said what I said because most climate models show this area turning into a desert, and that might prove to be quite wrong. The climate map is not the climate. It’s an educated guess about a future with a sh*t ton of variables.
Your continuous strident doomer’s bias is getting kinda old. You could benefit from a little humility. I’m not your enemy. I also am far from stupid, in case you haven’t seen from my past ten years of writing.
I dont consider myself stupid either, yet I think we are screwed.
I read widely.
I can make objective observations.
I can use logic and make my own deductions when presented with credible data.
We are really really screwed.
Next 10 years is going to be a shitstorm.
I really do sincerely hope I am wrong.
I cant look the other way because I dont like what I see.
JOw
Post by: Eddie on July 02, 2021, 10:15:17 am
There is no mystery to me. Difference in temp from pole to equator used to drive winds in predictable patterns.. A polar jet stream made winds circulate around the arctic making weather consistent. Now the stability of circulating jet stream winds fails and weather becomes chaotic. The temp difference made things more stable,
I understand how the jet stream works. But I said what I said because most climate models show this area turning into a desert, and that might prove to be quite wrong. The climate map is not the climate. It’s an educated guess about a future with a sh*t ton of variables.
Your continuous strident doomer’s bias is getting kinda old. You could benefit from a little humility. I’m not your enemy. I also am far from stupid, in case you haven’t seen from my past ten years of writing.
Post by: Nearings fault on July 02, 2021, 10:11:02 am
Post by: Cam on July 02, 2021, 08:59:37 am
Post by: K-Dog on July 02, 2021, 08:57:56 am
Sometimes I don't wonder if he didn't figure out that discussing that doom with the females of the specie worked better than candy and liquor. Get them depressed a little (the mechanism of the doom was irrelevant, only the result) and apply the slogan of A Little Luvin' At The End Of The World!
https://www.wrongkindofgreen.org/2017/08/26/statement/
To even wonder is madness. But I understand.
I also understand a man needs his knob polished and will spout any bullshit to get the job done.
Post by: K-Dog on July 02, 2021, 08:32:11 am
Post by: Eddie on July 02, 2021, 05:00:14 am
I might point out that this area, which is usually pretty hot, like 100-105F this time of year, is experiencing milder, wetter weather as the west and northwest burns. It was the coolest, wettest spring I can remember in the last 32 years of living in central Texas. We are having some hot days now, but I’d still call it a mild summer.
Post by: John of Wallan on July 01, 2021, 12:51:49 pm
Link:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-57678054
Text:
Canada Lytton: Heatwave record village overwhelmingly burned in wildfire
Published2 hours ago
Share
media captionWatch: Lytton, British Columbia residents flee wildfires
A wildfire has burned 90% of the village that recorded Canada's highest ever temperature, the local MP says.
Brad Vis said the fire had caused extensive damage to Lytton, in British Columbia, and to surrounding critical infrastructure.
Lytton's mayor earlier ordered people to evacuate, saying flames had spread through the village in just 15 minutes.
The village this week recorded the country's highest ever temperature of 49.6C (121.3F).
Abnormally high temperatures have been recorded in swathes of North America.
British Columbia, in western Canada, recorded 486 deaths over five days compared with an average of 165 in normal times.
Visual guide to the heatwave's causes
How to look after yourself in hot weather
Chief Coroner Lisa Lapointe blamed the extreme weather. The western province had seen only three heat-related deaths over the past three to five years.
media captionWatch: Canadians say the conditions are "unbearable"
Many of those who died, Ms Lapointe said, had been living alone in unventilated homes.
Temperatures have been easing in coastal areas of Canada but there is not much respite for inland regions. The weather system is now moving eastwards over the Prairie provinces - Alberta and Saskatchewan and parts of Manitoba have been placed under Environment Canada heat warnings.
Climate scientists are still trying to determine to what extent climate change may have aggravated the heatwave. One scientist, Zeke Hausfather, said the unprecedented weather was almost certainly a consequence of global warming.
"Climate is sort of steroids for the weather, it's loading the dice to make these sort of extreme events be more common," he told AFP news agency.
What is happening in Lytton?
Residents fled on Wednesday, many without their belongings, as smoke and flame engulfed the village, which is home to about 250 people and located about 260km (162 miles) north-east of Vancouver.
"The whole town is on fire," Mayor Jan Polderman told CBC News after signing the evacuation order at 18:00 on Wednesday (01:00 GMT Thursday).
Fire
IMAGE COPYRIGHT2 RIVERS REMIX SOCIETY
image captionThe speed of the fire in Lytton meant many people fled without their possessions
In one area, he said, "the fire was a wall about three, four feet high coming up to the fence line".
Winds of up to 71km/h (44 mph) were pushing the fire north into the community on Wednesday evening, CBC meteorologist Johanna Wagstaffe reported. Hot, dry and windy conditions in the area could mean the fire was moving at 10 or even 20km/h.
In a social media post on Thursday, MP Brad Vis said he would not be attending Canada Day activities because he was devoting all his time to the emergency situation.
"There are reports of several injuries. The situation is ongoing," he wrote.
Map showing the hottest areas in Canada and the US north-west
1px transparent line
Residents were being directed to nearby communities where reception centres were being set up, while the British Columbia Wildfire Service was diverting crews and equipment from other areas to respond to the fire.
Jean McKay, who left the First Nations community of Kanaka Bar, about 15km from Lytton, with her 22-year-old daughter Deirdre, told CBC how hard emotionally it had been to leave their home.
"I cried. My daughter cried. She said, 'I don't even know why I grabbed my key. We might not even have a home.' I said, 'Yeah I know. As long as we're together we'll survive.' I just pray that our houses are OK."
"You can't even comprehend it," Lytton evacuee Edith Loring-Kuhanga told CBC Radio. "Our entire town is gone."
Before the fire, Lytton had recorded the highest temperature ever seen in Canada on three consecutive days.
How dangerous was the heat elsewhere?
In Vancouver, British Columbia's biggest city, heat is believed to have been a contributing factor in the deaths of 65 people since Friday.
The city has opened 25 air-conditioned cooling centres where people have been resting or working from their laptops.
"I have no air conditioning, only a fan at home - I came here just to work where it's cool," one woman, who gave her name only as Lou, told AFP news agency.
Smoke rises from a wildfire at Long Loch and Derrickson Lake in Central Okanagan, British Columbia, Canada, June 30, 2021
IMAGE COPYRIGHTREUTERS
image captionWildfires were also spotted in Central Okanagan, British Columbia
In the US state of Oregon, health officials tied more than 60 deaths to the extreme heat while in Washington State, 20 deaths were attributed to the weather, the Associated Press reports.
Seattle, Portland and other cities broke all-time heat records, which climbed above 46C in places.
Both Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and US President Joe Biden warned of the threat of wildfires, with Mr Biden telling governors of western US states it was as "severe as it's ever been".
line
Can the heat be linked to climate change?
Analysis box by Matt McGrath, environment correspondent
I've heard from scientists who say that in just a few days they'll be able to determine just how much human driven warming has contributed to the searing temperatures seen in British Columbia.
One interesting piece of evidence is the lack of respite that night brings - recent temperatures at midnight in BC have been 2C warmer than the normal summer daytime figure.
Researchers say this combination of day and night-time heat is very dangerous for humans - a study published last year indicated that these compound events are closely linked to emissions of greenhouse gases.
Natural variability and local factors such as sea breezes can raise or limit the impacts of extreme heat. But the bigger picture is the rising thermometer of global heating is impacting all events.
"Every heatwave occurring today is made more likely and more intense by human-induced climate change," Dr Friederike Otto from the University of Oxford told the BBC.
"Climate change is definitely one of the drivers of the intensity of this Canadian heatwave - but it is not the only one and determining how much it impacts it, is a work in progress."
Even if they can't directly attribute this heatwave to climate change, experts say the fingerprints of global heating are all over it.
Life in the 'hottest place on Earth'
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What is global warming?
Post by: John of Wallan on July 01, 2021, 12:49:07 pm
"Temperature of 121 F sets new national record high in Canada"
I have seen 45 degrees c (113f). That was extreme heat. 49c (221f) is deadly.
JOW
Link:
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/temperature-of-121-f-sets-new-national-record-high-in-canada/971838
Text:
Temperature of 121 F sets new national record high in Canada
By Adam Douty, AccuWeather senior meteorologist
Updated Jul. 2, 2021 1:08 AM AEST
Copied
The World Meteorological Organization warned of serious danger from the extreme temperatures that have gripped the northwestern U.S.
Grim news emerged in Canada’s western-most province of British Columbia on Wednesday just one day after one locale in the region set a new all-time record high for the nation at a scorching 121 F. The death toll from the unprecedented heat wave had climbed into the hundreds.
Lisa Lapointe, British Columbia's chief coroner, said 486 reports of "sudden and unexpected" deaths came in between last Friday and this Wednesday, which is well ahead of the 165 deaths the province normally sees in five days, The Associated Press reported.
The news came as the temperature in Lytton, a Canadian town nestled in the Coast Mountain Range of British Columbia, saw highs finally dip below the century mark after a record-smashing stretch. The high topped out at 99 F in Lytton on Wednesday, according to Environment Canada, as temperatures began to trend down from the peak of the blistering heat wave.
During the stretch from Sunday, June 27, to Tuesday, June 29, Lytton broke the all-time Canadian high-temperature record on three straight days. The stretch of record-setting warmth began on Sunday when the town reached 116 F (46.6 C). The record was broken on Monday with a high of 118 F (47.8 C) and again on Tuesday with an astonishingly high temperature of 121 F (49.6 C).
The previous record-high temperature recorded in Canada was 113 F (45 C) that was set on July, 5 1937, in Midale and Yellow Grass, Saskatchewan.
Lytton is no stranger to sizzling heat. The town previously recorded a temperature of 112 F (44.4 C) in 1941, which stood as the record all-time high temperature for the community until the most recent heat wave.
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"The thermometer that recorded the record-setting temperatures likely still has to be checked for accuracy before the new record can be finalized, though this can take some time," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said.
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), British Columbia broke 43 all-time records as of June 28.
“The Northwest Territories have recorded their all-time highest temperatures not just in June, but any point in the year. We are setting records that have no business in being set so early in the season,” Armel Castellan a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, said according to the WMO.
“We have had many days of this in a row and each morning we wake up to higher temperatures. This is what is dangerous and it is affecting people throughout many days where they are dehydrated, and we have had many days where the temperature is higher than the day before,” Castellan said, adding that he has been sleeping in a tent for relief this week.
“Fewer than 40 percent of homes have air conditioning on the coast, people are having to go to libraries and shopping malls to find a couple of hours of air conditioning," he said.
"To highlight how unusually hot it has been for southern British Columbia, Lytton’s all-time high of 121 F (49.4 C) is higher than any temperature ever recorded in Las Vegas, Nevada, which has only ever seen the temperature climb to 117 F (47.2 C)," said AccWeather Meteorologist Adam Sadvary.
Other all-time high-temperature records were shattered on Tuesday across the border in the United States. Hermiston, Oregon, reached 118 F (47.8 C) while Omak, Washington, hit 117 F (47.2 C).
A specific series of weather events had to occur to allow for temperatures so extreme across the northwestern U.S. and western Canada.
"A strong area of high pressure in the upper levels of the atmosphere has been sitting idle over the Northwest and western Canada since late last week. This setup created a block around the jet stream, allowing air to stagnate over the region and quickly become dangerously hot," explained Sadvary.
The key to why Lytton got so hot is its location within a valley at the junction of the Fraser and Thompson rivers while simultaneously being surrounded by these exceptionally tall mountains.
"Daytime heat absorbed by the mountains was released into the valley which kept warm air trapped around Lytton," Sadvary said. "The high pressure overhead also allowed a breeze out of the south to bring additional warm air directly up the valley."
Webcam image from the airport in Lytton, British Columbia, on June 30, 2021.
Gov
"There is also ongoing drought across south-central British Columbia," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Canada weather expert Brett Anderson pointed out. "Dry ground meant more of the sun's energy went directly to heating the ground and air instead of evaporating moisture."
"This combination led to the development of extremely dangerous heat that is typically only seen in the hottest desert locations around the globe," Sadvary added.
Shortly after Lytton set Canada's new all-time high temperature record, the dryness across British Columbia contributed to not only heat, but also wildfires. Evacuation orders were issued as fires sparked across the village of Lytton.
The extreme heat also turned deadly and the number of heat-related fatalities has soared into the hundreds.
Some of the highest numbers of deaths have come from Vancouver, where temperatures topped out at 90 F (32.2 C) on Saturday and again on Tuesday. The Vancouver Police Department said the number of heat-related deaths has depleted front-line resources and severely delayed response times throughout the city.
As of 11:52 a.m. on Wednesday, the police department had responded to at least 98 sudden deaths since the heat wave began. Typically the police department said it responds to three to four sudden deaths per day.
“Vancouver has never experienced heat like this, and sadly dozens of people are dying because of it,” says Sergeant Steve Addison, VPD. “Our officers are stretched thin, but we’re still doing everything we can to keep people safe.”
Across the Pacific Northwest and in Canada, at least 230 deaths have been reported, according to CNN.
While the peak of the heat has passed in most locations, it will remain dangerously hot across the region into the end of the week.
“In fact, record-challenging temperatures are likely to persist east of the Cascades and throughout western Canada into the early days of July,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Renee Duff said. “High temperatures can still soar close to 20 degrees above normal each day for many locations.”
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Editor's note: This story previously said Lytton was nestled at the foot of the Rocky Mountains. The village is situated near the Coast Mountain Range in western British Columbia.
Keep checking back on AccuWeather.com and stay tuned to the AccuWeather Network on DirecTV, Frontier, Spectrum, FuboTV, Philo, and Verizon Fios.
Report a Typo
Post by: Phil Potts on July 01, 2021, 12:48:17 pm
Just read a report of somewhere in Canadq getting 49 degrees c. 1221 F.
Is this correct or a typo?
Thats off the charts and very disturbing if accurate..
JOW
Don't think it's a typo, ABC said 49.5C in Vancouver area. Apparently people with no home aircon are sitting in their aircond cars with engine 🏃
Post by: John of Wallan on July 01, 2021, 11:14:39 am
Is this correct or a typo?
Thats off the charts and very disturbing if accurate..
JOW
Post by: K-Dog on June 30, 2021, 11:37:47 pm
You are right. But I never thought Guy was right to begin with. I started out thinking Guy was at least harmless and made people think. Then I found out most people are stupid and take him at face value. A that moment I realized Guy is incredibly dangerous.
Post by: John of Wallan on June 30, 2021, 10:41:48 pm
As usual it always says these things will happen, when they are already happening.
JOW
Link:
https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/from-drying-rainforests-to-heavier-downpours-australia-s-climate-is-changing-20210630-p585lh.html
Text:
From drying rainforests to heavier downpours, Australia’s climate is changing
Peter Hannam
By Peter Hannam
July 1, 2021 — 3.29pm
Australia’s tropical rainforests will dry out, marine and land heatwaves will become more frequent and intense, and thunderstorms will dump more rain and worsen floods as the globe heats up.
These are among the many impacts from climate change that will blight the nation further unless atmospheric levels of greenhouse gases stabilise, according to the final report of the federal government’s Earth Systems and Climate Change Hub.
’Hub research has shown a clear link between climate change
and worsening bushfire weather conditions over the past 70
years,” the centre’s final report finds.
’Hub research has shown a clear link between climate change and worsening bushfire weather conditions over the past 70 years,” the centre’s final report finds.CREDIT:NICK MOIR
The work of more than 100 researchers, to be expanded in a new Climate Systems Hub that began operations on Thursday, made advances across fields ranging from bushfire prediction to the rapid identification of the role climate change rather than natural variability plays in an extreme weather.
“It’s clear that climate change is already happening and having impacts,” said David Karoly, the leader of the Earth Systems Hub that ended its work on June 30. Hub achievements include the “massively successful” improvements to the main ACCESS climate model used by Australian governments and agencies to hone future predictions to a smaller scale than before, he said.
Ancient Gondwanan rainforests in Queensland and NSW, which get as much as 40 per cent of their moisture from being shrouded in clouds, face a drier and hotter future with climate change.
Ancient Gondwanan rainforests in Queensland and NSW, which get as much as 40 per cent of their moisture from being shrouded in clouds, face a drier and hotter future with climate change.CREDIT:BRIAN CASSEY
The final report said there was “a clear link between climate change and worsening bushfire weather conditions over the past 70 years”, and singled out the World Heritage-listed Gondwana Rainforests as one area of concern.
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The forests, which stretch from north of Newcastle in NSW up to southern Queensland, were hard hit by the 2019-20 Black Summer bushfires and are likely to become drier as clouds and fog that provide as much as 40 per cent of moisture rise in a warmer climate.
“Higher cloud height, especially during the dry season, could lead to a dry climate that is beyond the tolerance of some species, resulting in rainforest community changes,” the report found, adding “even moderate increases in cloud height were found to have significant implications for cloud-water dependent species”.
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Professor Karoly said that, while the lineage of the forests dates back many millions of years, changes were underway in a matter of a hundred years, far faster than species could adapt.
Similarly rapid changes were underway in the oceans around Australia although their remoteness from most people’s experiences meant they were not well known.
The Tasman Sea is warming at four times the global average, placing at risk giant kelp forests off the Tasmanian coast.
The Tasman Sea is warming at four times the global average, placing at risk giant kelp forests off the Tasmanian coast.CREDIT:CRAIG SANDERSON
The Tasman Sea, for instance, is warming four times faster than the global average in part because the East Australian Current is strengthening and dragging tropical water much further south. Key ecosystems, such as the giant kelp forests off Tasmania, are at risk from more frequent heatwaves.
“A marine heatwave [in the Tasman Sea] similar in intensity to those in 2015–16 and 2017–18 is currently expected to occur approximately once every 20 years,” the report said. “Under [a global] low-emissions scenario, it is expected to occur once every 15 years by the end of the century, and under the high-emissions scenario, a marine heatwave is projected to occur almost every year.”
Thunderstorms were another area of interest, including how the number of danger so-called “pyrocumulonimbus” clouds formed out of bushfire plumes.
At least 35 of them were detected during Black Summer, increasing the risk of erratic winds on unpredictable fire behaviour and ignite new blazes ahead of the fire front, the report noted.
East coast lows, another big weather event affecting coastal areas from Queensland to Victoria, were among phenomenon undergoing change. The Hub developed new ways to analyse the complex storms and found the most extreme rainfall near eastern Australia was frequently caused by such low-pressure systems combining with a front and a thunderstorm.
The researchers found short-duration events produced by thunderstorms could potentially increase in intensity by about 15 per cent per degree of global warming.
A line of storms associated with an east coast low sweeping over the Hawkesbury River north of Sydney in July 2020.
A line of storms associated with an east coast low sweeping over the Hawkesbury River north of Sydney in July 2020.CREDIT:NICK MOIR
Andy Pitman, head of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and a Hub advisor, said east coast lows were “one of the least effectively studied phenomena in Australia” even though their impacts can be huge in terms of floods, storm surges and wind damage.
“I worry about how ill-prepared we are for any climate signal for east coast lows,” he said.
At the other end of the weather spectrum was so-called flash droughts, another of the Hub’s research areas. These are triggered by lower-than-average rainfall, accompanied by abnormally high temperatures, a dry atmosphere, clear skies and more sunshine, and can be perilous for crops.
Drone vision of Lake Burrendong in the central-west region of NSW in January 2020 when water levels fell to a couple of per cent of capacity.CREDIT:NICK MOIR
The researchers showed the sudden dry spells could be forecast, and they can happen even in winter.
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The outgoing Hub cost $23.4 million, with matching contributions from CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology and five universities including the University of Melbourne and the University of NSW. Its successor has been allocated federal funding of $38 million over six years.
While welcomed, “we are not investing remotely enough given the scale of the risk”, Professor Pitman said, adding the new funding was “not even one year’s salary of a top soccer player”.
Simon Marsland, a CSIRO senior scientist who will lead the new Climate Systems Hub, said how communities could adapt to the warming impacts still to come will be one priority as will efforts to work closely with Indigenous populations that are often particularly exposed to extreme weather.
Dr Marsland noted the current record-shattering heatwave in Canada, with near 50-degree temperatures recorded even at a latitude as far as 50 degrees north, were “a good reminder that climate change is here now and not something in the far future”.
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Post by: John of Wallan on June 30, 2021, 10:35:17 pm
Its not getting hotter. We are just measuring it differently.
Its mind control. No, its aliens.
Russians?
Oh well. Business as usual is fine as long as we are all ok and making money. Oh, wait...
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
Heatwaves and the danger of the Arctic Ocean heating up
Heatwaves and Jet Stream Changes
Heatwaves are increasingly hitting higher latitudes, as illustrated by the forecasts below. The background behind this is that the temperature rise caused by people's emissions is also causing changes to the jet streams.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
These changes to the Jet Stream are increasingly creating conditions for heatwaves to strike at very high latitudes, as also illustrated by the images on the right.
The first image on the right shows that surface temperatures as high as 48°C or 118.3°F are forecast in the State of Washington for June 30, 2021, at 01:00 UTC, at a latitude of 46.25°N. At the same time, even higher temperatures are forecast nearby at 1000 hPa level (temperatures as high as 119.4°C or 48.6°C).
The next two images on the right show what happened to the jet stream. One image shows instantaneous wind power density at 250 hPa, i.e. at an altitude where the jet stream circumnavigates the globe, on June 26, 2021 at 11:00 UTC. The image features two green circles. The top green circle marks a location where the jet stream is quite forceful and reaches a speed of 273 km/h or 170 mph. The bottom green circle marks the same location where the 48°C is forecast on June 30, 2021. This shows how heat has been able to move north from as early as June 26, 2021.
The next image on the right shows the situation on June 30, 2021, 04:00 UTC, illustrating how such a jet stream pattern can remain in place (blocked) for several days (in this case for more than five days). The green circle again marks the same location where the 48°C is forecast (in the top image on the right).
This illustrates how a more wavy jet stream can enable high temperatures to rise to higher latitudes, while holding a pattern in place for several days, thus pushing up temperatures over time in the area.
As said, these changes in the jet stream that are enabling hot air to rise up to high latitudes are caused by global warming. Accelerating warming in the Arctic is causing the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator to narrow, which in turn is making the jet stream more wavy.
The next image on the right shows that a UV index reading as high as 12 (extreme) is forecast for a location at 51.56°N in Washington for June 28, 2021, illustrating that such an extreme level of UV can occur at high latitudes, due to changes in the jet stream.
Accelerated Warming in the Arctic
As the temperature rise is accelerating due to people's emissions, the acceleration is speeding up more in the Arctic than anywhere else on Earth, due to numerous feedbacks and tipping points, including:
• Albedo loss goes hand in hand with decline of the snow and ice cover. Albedo is a measure of reflectivity of the surface. Albedo is higher as more sunlight is reflected back upward and less energy is getting absorbed at the surface. Albedo decline can occur as snow and ice disappears and the underlying darker soil and rock becomes exposed. Even when the snow and ice cover remains extensive, its reflectivity can decline, due to cracks and holes in the ice, due to formation of melt ponds on top of the ice and due to changes in texture (melting snow and ice reflects less light). Calving of the ice can take place where warmer water can reach it, and such calving can increase as storms strengthen and waves get larger.
• Furthermore, albedo loss can occur as dust, soot and organic compounds that are caused by human activities get deposited on the snow and ice cover, reducing the reflectivity of the surface. Organic compounds and nutrients in meltwater pools can lead to rapid growth of algae, especially at times of high insolation.
• Latent heat loss. As sea ice gets thinner, ever less ocean heat gets consumed in the process of melting the subsurface ice, to the point where - as long as air temperatures are still low enough - there still is a thin layer of ice at the surface that will still consume some heat below the surface, but that at the same time acts as a seal, preventing heat from the Arctic Ocean to enter the atmosphere.
• Jet Stream changes can further amplify the temperature rise. As the temperature difference between the North Pole and the Equator narrows, the Jet Stream becomes more wavy, spreading out widely at times. The changes to the jet stream cause more extreme weather, including heatwaves, forest fires, storms, flooding, etc. This can cause more aerosols to get deposited on the snow and ice cover. It can also speed up the flow of warm water into the Arctic Ocean.
Albedo loss, latent heat loss and changes to the jet stream can dramatically amplify the temperature rise in the Arctic. The temperature of the Arctic Ocean is rising accordingly, while there are a number of developments that specifically speed up the temperature rise of the water of the Arctic Ocean, as discussed below.
Arctic Ocean heating up
The temperature of the water of the Arctic Ocean is rising, due to a number of events and developments:
[ from the insolation page ]
Solstice occurred on June 21, 2021. The Arctic is now receiving huge amounts of sunlight (see image on the right, from the insolation page).
Sea surface temperatures and temperatures on land are very high in Siberia, Canada and Alaska. Strong winds can spread warm air over the Arctic Ocean.
Arctic sea ice extent is low for the time of year, but at this stage, there still is a lot of sea ice present (compared to September). The sea ice acts as a seal, preventing ocean heat from entering the atmosphere, resulting in more heat remaining in the Arctic Ocean.
[ Lena River, Siberia ]
Warm water from rivers is flowing into the Arctic Ocean, carrying further heat into the Arctic Ocean. Above image shows that on June 23, 2021, sea surface temperatures were 22.3°C or 72.2°F at a spot where water from the Lena River flows into the Arctic Ocean. The image on the right shows that at a nearby location the sea surface temperature was 20°C or 36°F higher than 1981-2011.
Warm water from the North Atlantic Ocean and the North Pacific Ocean is flowing into the Arctic Ocean and the amount of ocean heat flowing into the Arctic Ocean is rising each year.
As mentioned above, latent heat loss is contributing to the rapid temperature rise in the Arctic. The remaining sea ice acts as a buffer, consuming ocean heat from below. Sea ice is getting thinner each year, so ever less ocean heat can get consumed in the process of melting the sea ice from below.
Changes to the jet stream can also cause strong storms that can dramatically speed up the amount of heat flowing into the Arctic Ocean, as discussed at the Cold freshwater lid on North Atlantic page.
The danger of the temperature rise of the Arctic Ocean
The danger of the temperature rise of the Arctic Ocean is that it can cause destabilization of hydrates at its seafloor, resulting in eruption of huge amounts of methane from hydrates and from free gas underneath the hydrates.
[ The Buffer has gone, feedback #14 on the Feedbacks page ]
In conclusion, changes to the jet stream could cause a huge temperature rise soon, while a 3°C rise could cause humans to go extinct, which is a daunting prospect. Even so, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
Post by: Phil Potts on June 28, 2021, 01:02:16 pm
It is going to be over 43 degrees C tomorrow in Seattle. I might smoke from spontaneous combustion. Change is coming a bit faster than anyone thought.
Oh ****. Seattle. Thats way up North West Coast!.
I heard it's also quite progressive, so gain extra airflow and an all over tan by going the full monty. Don't keep it to yourself, ask a few others to hang out
[attachment deleted by admin]
Post by: John of Wallan on June 28, 2021, 02:26:25 am
It is going to be over 43 degrees C tomorrow in Seattle. I might smoke from spontaneous combustion. Change is coming a bit faster than anyone thought.
Oh ****. Seattle. Thats way up North West Coast!.
We get into the low 40s here for a week or 2 every summer. 43; Thats starting to get pretty hot.
Much over this starts killing trees and birds very quickly, even our natives eucalypts which are pretty heat tollerant, let alone your more temperate species you guys have.
Water everything the day before and later the same afternoon once heat has started to subside.
Stay in shade and drink plenty of water if AC goes out. Sit under a tree you have watered.
If its humid you are ****.
Every degree once you get over 42 makes a big difference.
Be carefull. Dont be complacent.
We are used to these temps and still every year people die of heat stroke, and small children and animals die in cars within mimutes.
Yep. Change is coming quicker than we think.
JOW
Post by: K-Dog on June 27, 2021, 07:59:31 pm
Post by: John of Wallan on June 25, 2021, 03:11:32 pm
JOW
Link:
https://outline.com/F3q4Ev
Text:
‘The water is coming’: Florida Keys faces stark reality as seas rise
Oliver Milman June 24, 2021
Long famed for its spectacular fishing, sprawling coral reefs and literary residents such as Ernest Hemingway, the Florida Keys is now acknowledging a previously unthinkable reality: it faces being overwhelmed by the rising seas and not every home can be saved.
Following a grueling seven-hour public meeting on Monday, held in the appropriately named city of Marathon, officials agreed to push ahead with a plan to elevate streets throughout the Keys to keep them from perpetual flooding, while admitting they do not have the money to do so.
The string of coral cay islands that unspool from the southern tip of Florida finds itself on the frontline of the climate crisis, forcing unenviable choices upon a place that styles itself as sunshine-drenched idyll. The lives of Keys residents – a mixture of wealthy, older white people, the one in four who are Hispanic or Latino, and those struggling in poverty – face being upended.
If the funding isn’t found, the Keys will become one of the first places in the US – and certainly not the last – to inform residents that certain areas will have to be surrendered to the oncoming tides.
“The water is coming and we can’t stop it,” said Michelle Coldiron, mayor of Monroe county, which encompasses the Keys. “Some homes will have to be elevated, some will have to be bought out. It’s very difficult to have these conversations with homeowners, because this is where they live. It can get very emotional.”
A town board meeting at the government building in Marathon, Florida on June 21, 2021.
A town board meeting at the government building in Marathon, Florida on June 21, 2021. Photograph: Saul Martinez/The Guardian
Once people are unable to secure mortgages and insurance for soaked homes, the Keys will cease to be a livable place long before it’s fully underwater, according to Harold Wanless, a geographer at the University of Miami. “People don’t have a concept of what sea level rise will do to them. They just can’t conceive it,” he said.
On Monday, the county gave details of its plan to spend $1.8bn over the next 25 years to raise 150 miles of roads in the Keys, deploying a mixture of new drains, pump stations and vegetation to prevent the streets becoming inundated with seawater. The heightened roadways are eagerly anticipated by residents who told the meeting of cars being ruined by the salt water and of donning boots to wade to front doors.
“The roads are shot, they’re full of cracks, the water is permeating up,” said Kimberly Sikora, who lives in a vulnerable neighborhood of Key Largo called Stillwright Point that is still awaiting a full road elevation proposal. “I’m just looking for some kind of relief.”
Another resident, Robert Schaller of Twin Lakes, an area further along in the planning process, muttered that he “should’ve done my due diligence” when buying his house last year. “I literally stand on my balcony and watch the water come up through my street,” he said. “It’s coming up right through the pavement.”
But Monroe county’s budget will not cover the raising of all the roads, nor any mass buyout of homes, and an appeal to Florida state lawmakers to levy a new tax to cover these mounting costs has been rebuffed. Further costs will pile up as the county grapples with how – and who pays - to keep critical infrastructure such as sewers and power substations, as well as people’s homes, from being flooded along with the roads.
“If we can’t raise additional money then we will have to look at prioritizing,” said Rhonda Haag, Monroe county’s chief resilience officer.
“For example, should we spend money on raising roads if people aren’t paying to raise their yards? We are blazing trails here. We are ahead of everyone in having to think about this.”
Homes on a canal that frequently gets flooded, in Key Largo on Monday.
Homes on a canal that frequently gets flooded, in Key Largo on Monday. Photograph: Saul Martinez/The Guardian
The pancake-flat Keys are in jeopardy from rising seas that are, as a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) scientist told the county commissioners in the Monday meeting, accelerating upwards as the vast ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica melt away. Human-caused global heating means an extra 17in of sea level rise by 2040, according to an intermediate Noaa projection used by the county.
Compounding this problem, the islands’ porous limestone allows the rising seawater to bubble up from below, meaning it just takes high tides on sunny days to turn roads into ponds, while global heating is also spurring fiercer hurricanes that can occasionally crunch into the archipelago.
“The Florida Keys are one of the most vulnerable places to flooding in North America,” said Kristina Hill, an environmental planner at the University of California, Berkeley, who warned that the islands would face growing road and pipe maintenance costs, more pollution leaks and harmful algal blooms.
“Without a change in strategy, parts of the Keys will become accessible only by boat,” said Hill, adding that the islands could have to resort to floating structures and navigable canals to remain viable. “The islands will gradually disappear into a higher ocean, potentially leaving a ruined landscape of leaky underground storage tanks, old pipes, and flooded road segments behind to pollute the water.”
A sign reads ‘Salt Water No Wake’ as ocean water floods a street in Key Largo in October 2019.
A sign reads ‘Salt Water No Wake’ as ocean water floods a street in Key Largo in October 2019. Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
The threats faced by the Keys are shrugged off by some of its wealthy retirees who view the situation with a certain fatalism, while others in this Republican-voting bastion openly question the science. Eddie Martinez, one of the county’s five elected commissioners, challenged the Noaa scientist, William Sweet, on his sea level rise projections on Monday.
The sea level rise to date is “really a nothing number”, said Martinez, who told Sweet: “You’re a little bit more on this CO2 side, I’m more on the actual measurement side.” Another commissioner, David Rice, said that “predicting the future is probably best done with a crystal ball” and speculated that global temperatures could change following several volcanic eruptions.
“There are people who don’t want to sell because they love it here, others who want to get out while they can and those in complete denial who call you a troublemaker who is driving down property values by talking about it,” said George Smyth, a retiree who moved to Key Largo a decade ago for the quiet, slow-paced lifestyle. In 2019, his neighborhood spent 90 days partially submerged in water.
The nature of the Keys has changed in this time. While the islands still include pockets of poverty, an influx of affluent second-home owners has caused new properties to sprout up around Smyth. “It used to be pretty rough and tumble, you’d see a few fights on a Saturday night,” he said. “Now everyone looks like they’ve just come from the cosmetic dentist.”
A view of the ocean from a local park that frequently gets flooded when water levels rise, in Key Largo.
A view of the ocean from a local park that frequently gets flooded when water levels rise, in Key Largo. Photograph: Saul Martinez/The Guardian
Other new realities are more laborious – Smyth has to wash his car continually to rid it of salt water and has to pay for trucks to unload piles of crushed-up rocks around his property as a buffer against the encroaching tides. While Smyth doesn’t class himself as particularly wealthy, these protections are beyond the means of low-income Keys residents, many of whom live in exposed mobile homes dotted along the islands.
Smyth fears that the county will require poorer residents to stump up the money for the roads, rather than put a levy on the tourists that flock to the Keys. “We feel we are being held hostage,” he said. “I feel sorrow for what is coming and the loss of what is a wonderful community.”
But the mayor defiantly insists the Keys can be saved, even if it is currently unclear how. “We know we live in paradise and we want to keep it that way,” said Coldiron.
Post by: John of Wallan on June 25, 2021, 03:09:03 pm
JOW
Link:
https://www.rfi.fr/en/international/20210623-leaked-un-climate-report-warns-of-radical-changes-in-coming-years-ipcc-environment-global-warming
Text:
Leaked UN climate report warns of radical changes in coming years
Issued on: 23/06/2021 - 22:07
With dangerous thresholds closer than thought, the choices that societies make now will determine whether our species thrives or simply survives during the 21st century, a leaked IPCC report has warned.
With dangerous thresholds closer than thought, the choices that societies make now will determine whether our species thrives or simply survives during the 21st century, a leaked IPCC report has warned. © ORLANDO SIERRA AFP
Text by:
Amanda Morrow
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3 min
The crushing impacts of climate change will hit sooner than expected – with millions of people afflicted by hunger, drought and disease in the coming decades, a leaked UN report has warned.
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The outlook for the planet is bleak, even if global climate targets are met.
Scientists from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change say species extinction, extreme weather, ecosystem collapse and the spread of disease will be deeply felt within the next 30 years.
The draft report, which was seen by AFP but which will not be made public until next year, is the most comprehensive assessment on how global warming will affect both the planet and humankind.
#EXCLUSIVE Climate change will fundamentally reshape life on Earth in coming decades, even if humans can tame planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions, says a landmark draft report from UN's climate science advisors obtained by @AFP https://t.co/Q4ytmReVky pic.twitter.com/gry8gRPjsF
— AFP News Agency (@AFP) June 23, 2021
Closer thresholds
With dangerous thresholds closer than thought, the choices that societies make now will determine whether our species thrives or simply survives during the 21st century, the report said.
While slashing emissions and promoting plant-based diets can limit the damage to human health, the fallout resulting from decades of unchecked carbon pollution will be unavoidable in the short term.
Australia to challenge Unesco 'downgrade' of Great Barrier Reef
Frost that devastated French vineyards linked to climate change
Many land and marine ecosystems had reached, or surpassed, their ability to adapt to climate change, the scientists said.
The world has warmed by more than 1° Celsius since pre-industrial times, and is on track for 2.9C of warming under existing policies. The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming to “well below” 2C.
Grim outlook
The IPCC report found that in a world that was 2C hotter, animals such as penguins, polar bears, seals and corals reefs would be threatened.
In addition, 15 percent of the planet's permafrost would be lost by 2100, releasing up to 67 billion tonnes of carbon from the frozen soil into the atmosphere.
Warming of between 2C and 3C would see more than half of life on earth threatened with extinction.
Post by: John of Wallan on June 04, 2021, 10:52:52 pm
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
THURSDAY, JUNE 3, 2021
Greenhouse gas levels keep rising at accelerating rates
At the Paris Agreement in 2015, politicians pledged to limit the global temperature rise from pre-industrial levels to 1.5°C and promised to stop rises in greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible and to make rapid reductions in accordance with best available science, to achieve a balance between people's emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century.
Yet, greenhouse gas levels keep rising and the rise appears to be accelerating.
Carbon Dioxide
Annual growth rates of carbon dioxide (CO₂) have been rising for decades.
The February 2021 global CO₂ level was 415.88 parts per million (ppm), which was 2.96 ppm higher than the February 2020 global CO₂ level. On April 8, 2021, CO₂ levels at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, reached a peak of 421.36 ppm.
Methane
The 2020 global annual methane (CH₄) growth rate of 15.85 ppb was the highest on record. The global CH₄ level in January 2021 was 1893.4 ppb, 20 ppb higher than the January 2020 level.
The image at the top shows a trend indicating that CH₄ could reach a level of 4000 ppb in 2026, which at a 1-year GWP of 200 translates into 800 ppm CO₂e, so just adding this to the current CO₂ level would cause the Clouds Tipping Point at 1200 CO₂e to be crossed, which in itself could raise global temperatures by 8°C, as described in an earlier post.
Nitrous Oxide
The 2020 global annual nitrous oxide (N₂O) growth rate of 1.33 ppb was the highest on record. The global N₂O level in January 2021 was 333.9 ppb, 1.4 ppb higher than the January 2020 level.
Greenhouse gas levels are accelerating, despite promises by politicians to make dramatic cuts in emissions. As it turns out, politicians have not taken the action they promised they would take.
Of course, when also adding nitrous oxide, the Clouds Tipping Point can get crossed even earlier.
Elements contributing to temperature rise
Next to rising greenhouse gas levels, there are further elements that can contribute to a huge temperature rise soon.
As illustrated by above image by Nico Sun, the accumulation of energy going into melting the sea ice is at record high for the time of year.
As illustrated by above combination image, the thickness of the sea ice is now substantially less than it used to be. The image compares June 1, 2021 (left), with June 1, 2015 (right).
The animation on the right shows that sea ice is getting rapidly thinner, indicating that the buffer constituted by the sea ice underneath the surface is almost gone, meaning that further heat entering the Arctic Ocean will strongly heat up the water.
As described in an earlier post, this can destabilizate methane hydrates in sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean, resulting in eruption of methane from these hydrates and from methane that is located in the form of free gas underneath such hydrates.
Such methane eruptions will first of all heat up the Arctic, resulting in loss of Arctic sea ice's ability to reflect sunlight back into space (albedo feedback), in disappearing glaciers and in rapidly thawing terrestrial permafrost (and the associated release of greenhouse gases).
The Snowball Effect
Temperatures are rising and they are rising at accelerating pace, especially in the Arctic. A strong El Niño and a distortion in the jet stream could cause the latent heat and methane hydrates tipping points to be crossed soon, causing many feedbacks to kick in with ever greater ferocity, and pushing up the global temperature beyond 3°C, 4°C and 5°C above pre-industrial, like a snowball that keeps growing in size while picking up ever more snow, as it is racing down a very steep slope.
Crossing of tipping points and further events and developments can combine with feedbacks into a snowball effect of rapidly rising temperatures.
Feedbacks include changes to the Jet Stream that result in ever more extreme weather events such as storms and forest fires. Such events can cause huge emissions of greenhouse gases.
Temperatures can also be expected to rise over the next few years as sulfate cooling decreases. Aerosols can further cause additional warming if more black carbon and brown carbon gets emitted due to more wood getting burned and more forest fires taking place. Black carbon and brown carbon have a net warming effect and can settle on snow and ice and speed up their decline.
Therefore, the 8°C rise as a result of crossing the Clouds Tipping Point would come on top of the warming due to other elements, and the total rise could be as high as 18°C or 32.4°F from preindustrial, as ilustrated by the image on the right, from an earlier post.
In conclusion, there could be a huge temperature rise by 2026.
At a 3°C rise, humans will likely go extinct, making it from some perspectives futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026.
Even so, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
Links
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
• Paris Agreement
https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/english_paris_agreement.pdf
• NOAA: Trends in Greenhouse gases
https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends
• Overshoot or Omnicide?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/03/overshoot-or-omnicide.html
• Cryosphere Computing - by Nico Sun
https://cryospherecomputing.tk
• Arctic Ocean invaded by hot, salty water
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/05/arctic-ocean-invaded-by-hot-salty-water.html
• Naval Research Laboratry - sea ice thickness
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html
• Feedbacks in the Arctic
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/feedbacks.html
• A rise of 18°C or 32.4°F by 2026?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/02/a-rise-of-18c-or-324f-by-2026.html
• Most Important Message Ever
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html
Posted by Sam Carana at 12:03 AM
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Labels: Arctic, clouds, greenhouse gases, ocean, rise, sea ice, temperature, thickness
Post by: Phil Potts on June 01, 2021, 02:42:20 am
QuoteAs a species are voting with our dollars and actions every single day that we have no intention of changing our behavior.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2F11points.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2019%2F02%2Fofficespace-miltonend.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
Everyone wants to eat the worm.
chance for some air bnb bucks and charging for parking while the convention is in town
Post by: K-Dog on May 31, 2021, 01:49:46 pm
Quote
As a species are voting with our dollars and actions every single day that we have no intention of changing our behavior.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2F11points.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2019%2F02%2Fofficespace-miltonend.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
Everyone wants to eat the worm.
Post by: John of Wallan on May 30, 2021, 12:56:30 am
JOW
Link:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
Methane and the mass extinction of species
by Andrew Glikson
“The smart way to keep people passive and obedient is to strictly limit the spectrum of acceptable opinion, but allow very lively debate within that spectrum.” Noam Chomsky (1998).
The level of atmospheric methane, a poisonous gas considered responsible for major mass extinction events in the past, has nearly tripled during the 20-21st centuries, from ~722 ppb (parts per billion) to above ~1866 ppb, currently reinforced by coal seam gas (CSG) emissions. As the concentration of atmospheric methane from thawing Arctic permafrost, from Arctic sediments and from marshlands worldwide is rising, the hydrocarbon industry, subsidized by governments, is progressively enhancing global warming by extracting coal seam gas in defiance of every international agreement.
Methane (CH₄), a powerful greenhouse gas ~80 times the radiative power of carbon dioxide (CO₂) when fresh, sourced in from anaerobic decomposition in wetlands, rice fields, emission from animals, fermentation, animal waste, biomass burning, charcoal combustion and anaerobic decomposition of organic waste, is enriched by melting of leaking permafrost, leaks from sediments of the continental shelf (Figure 1) and extraction as coal seam gas (CSG). The addition to the atmosphere of even a part of the estimated 1,400 billion tons of carbon (GtC) from Arctic permafrost would destine the Earth to temperatures higher than 4 degrees Celsius and thereby demise of the biosphere life support systems.
During the last and present centuries, global methane concentrations have risen from approximately ~700 parts per billion (ppb) to near-1900 ppb, an increase by a factor of ~2.7, the highest rate in the last 800,000 years.
Since the onset of the Industrial age global emissions of carbon have reached near-600 billion tonnes of carbon (>2100 billion tonnes CO₂) at a rate faster than during the demise of dinosaurs. According to research published in Nature Geoscience, CO₂ is being added to the atmosphere at least ten times faster than during a major warming event about 55 million years ago.
Australia, possessing an abundance of natural gas, namely methane resources, is on track to become the world's largest exporter. Leaks from hydraulic fracturing (fracking) production wells, transport and residues of combustion are bound to contribute significantly to atmospheric methane. However, despite economic objections, not to mention accelerating global warming, natural gas from coal seam gas, liquefied to -161°C, is favored by the government for domestic use as well as exported around the world.
In the Hunter Valley, NSW, release of methane from open-cut coal mining reached above 3000 ppb. In the US methane released in some coal seam gas fields constitutes between 2 and 17 per cent of the emissions.
While natural gas typically emits between 50 and 60 percent less CO₂ than coal when burned, the drilling and extraction of natural gas from wells, fugitive emissions, leaks from transportation in pipelines result in enrichment of the atmosphere in methane, the main component of natural gas, 34 times stronger than CO₂ at trapping heat over a 100-year period and 86 times stronger over 20 years. So, while natural gas when burned emits less CO₂ than coal, that doesn’t mean that it’s clean – the reason summed up in one word: methane.
Global warming triggered by the massive release of CO₂ may be catastrophic, but release of CH₄ from methane hydrates may be apocalyptic. According to Brand et al. (2016), the release of methane from permafrost and shelf sediment has constituted the ultimate source and cause for the dramatic life-changing global warming. The mass extinction at the end of the Permian 251 million years ago, when 96 percent of species was lost, holds an important lesson for humanity regarding greenhouse gas emissions, global warming, and the life support system of the planet (Brand et al. 2016, Methane Hydrate: Killer cause of Earth's greatest mass extinction).
The pledge for zero-emissions by 2050 is questioned as governments continue to subsidize, mine and export hydrocarbons. Examples include Saudi-Arabia, the Gulf States, Russia, Norway and Australia. A mostly compliant media highlights a zero-emission pledge, but is reluctant to report the scale of exported emissions as well as the ultimate consequences of the open-ended rise of global temperatures.
Norway, a country committed to domestic clean energy, is conducting large scale drilling for Atlantic and Arctic oil. Australia, the fourth-largest producer of coal, with 6.9% of global production, is the biggest net exporter, with 32% of global exports in 2016. 23 new coal projects are proposed n the Hunter Valley, NSW, with a production capacity equivalent to 15 Adani-sized mines.
Australian electricity generation is dominated by fossil fuel and about 17% renewable energy. Fossil fuel subsidies hit $10.3 billion in 2020-21, about twice the investment in solar energy in 2019-2020. State Governments spent $1.2 billion subsidizing exploration, refurbishing coal ports, railways and power stations and funding “clean coal” research, ignoring the pledge for “zero emissions by 2050”.
The pledge overlooks the global amplifying effects of cumulative greenhouse gases. At the current rate of emissions, atmospheric CO₂ levels would be near 500 ppm CO₂ by 2050, generating warming of the oceans (expelling CO₂), decreased albedo due to melting of ice, release of methane, desiccated vegetation and extensive fires.
Claims of “clean coal”, “clean gas” and “clean hydrogen” ignore the contribution of these methods to the rise in greenhouse gases. Coal seam gas has become an additional source of methane which has an 80 times more powerful greenhouse effect than CO₂. This adds to the methane leaked from Arctic permafrost, with atmospheric methane rising from ~ 600 parts per billion early last century to higher than 2000 ppb. In the Hunter Valley, NSW, release of methane from open-cut coal mining reached above 3000 ppb. In the US, methane released in some coal seam gas fields constitutes between 2 and 17 per cent of the emissions.
The critical index of global warming, rarely mentioned by politicians or the media, is the atmospheric concentration of CO₂. During 2020-2021 CO₂ rose from 416.45 to 419.05 parts per million at a rate of 2.6 ppm/year, a trend unprecedented in the geological record of the last 55 million years. The combined effects of greenhouse gases such as cabon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) have reached near ~500 ppm CO2-equivalent.
Since 1880, the world has warmed by 1.09 degrees Celsius on average, near ~1.5°C on the continents and ~2.2°C in the Arctic, with the five warmest years on record during 2015-2020. Since the 1980s, the wildfire season has lengthened across a quarter of the world's vegetated surface. As extensive parts of Earth are burning, “forever wars” keep looming.
It is not clear how tracking toward +4 degrees Celsius by the end of the century can be arrested. A level of +4°C above pre-industrial temperature endangers the very life support systems of the planet. The geological record indicates past global heating events on a scale and rate analogous to the present have led to mass extinctions of species. According to Professor Will Steffen, Australia’s top climate scientist “we are already deep into the trajectory towards collapse”. While many scientists are discouraged by the extreme rate of global heating, it is left to a heroic young girl to warn the world of the greatest calamity since a large asteroid impacted Earth some 66 million years ago.
Andrew Glikson
A/Prof. Andrew Glikson
Earth and Paleo-climate scientist
The University of New South Wales,
Kensington NSW 2052 Australia
Post by: John of Wallan on May 27, 2021, 06:45:52 pm
Interesting reading.
JOW
Post by: John of Wallan on May 26, 2021, 01:26:51 am
My Agricultural Scientist son tells me the soils up above the arctic circle will not be good for growing much for a long time after it thaws... Wrong structure and poor nutrients he tells me. Also something about reduced photosynthesis efficiency at high latitudes due to reduced light.. (I am an engineer not a Agronomist).
Everything says less people to me.... Like I said, its just timing thats up for grabs. I am seeing it pretty short term before it all turns to ****. Maybe 5 to 10 years..
Ice free arctic in next 2 or 3 years. Crop failures in 2 or 3 years after that. Famine, conflict and mass migration 2 to 3 years after that.
I hope I am wrong.
JOW
Post by: John of Wallan on May 25, 2021, 05:24:58 pm
Its not a good sign.
I think we have screwed the pooch. To me its just an argument over timing for when the pooch screws back.
JOW
Link:
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/15/233/2021/
Partial Text only. Its a pretty big article with lots of graphs:
Abstract
We combine satellite observations and numerical models to show that Earth lost 28 trillion tonnes of ice between 1994 and 2017. Arctic sea ice (7.6 trillion tonnes), Antarctic ice shelves (6.5 trillion tonnes), mountain glaciers (6.1 trillion tonnes), the Greenland ice sheet (3.8 trillion tonnes), the Antarctic ice sheet (2.5 trillion tonnes), and Southern Ocean sea ice (0.9 trillion tonnes) have all decreased in mass. Just over half (58 %) of the ice loss was from the Northern Hemisphere, and the remainder (42 %) was from the Southern Hemisphere. The rate of ice loss has risen by 57 % since the 1990s – from 0.8 to 1.2 trillion tonnes per year – owing to increased losses from mountain glaciers, Antarctica, Greenland and from Antarctic ice shelves. During the same period, the loss of grounded ice from the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets and mountain glaciers raised the global sea level by 34.6 ± 3.1 mm. The majority of all ice losses were driven by atmospheric melting (68 % from Arctic sea ice, mountain glaciers ice shelf calving and ice sheet surface mass balance), with the remaining losses (32 % from ice sheet discharge and ice shelf thinning) being driven by oceanic melting. Altogether, these elements of the cryosphere have taken up 3.2 % of the global energy imbalance.
Post by: K-Dog on May 24, 2021, 10:26:04 pm
Quote
I will say to KDog that I'm not really comfortable ascribing motives to JMG. I often disagree with him - but respect his mind and viewpoint. I don't think he needs a novel theory of collapse to be considered different. That takes care of itself. I have his book "The Long Descent" from 2008. It's held up fairly well.
All right, lets forget about motives and agree that the JMG is a true blue golden child. Motives unquestioned.
The fact remains he is a self proclaimed druid who gives spiritual advice to a flock in which he is the shepherd. He wears an ankle length dress with a belt of dyed rope. He wears a medieval turban or headgear of some kind from the middle ages. He claims much esoteric wisdom.
So no, he does not need a novel theory of collapse to be considered different. Being different is what he is. It is his stock and trade.
Post by: K-Dog on May 24, 2021, 10:03:27 pm
Quote
the first time he proclaimed the end was nigh, and in that time imagine what would have happened if people had listened to him? They wouldn't have become doctors and saved people, they wouldn't have started families and discovered the wonders of children, they wouldn't have bought that Corvette and enjoyed the feeling of being Mario Andretti on an interstate on-ramp, and so on and so forth.
Exactly right. A few generations ago people did not live near as long as they do now. A temporary state of affairs perhaps, but for now it is true. When people only lived to 45 on average they did not scream life is a **** sandwich, what is the point of going on. No, they made the best out of what they had been given and enjoyed life as much as they could. People thought every day you were alive was a gift and thanking god for the opportunity to live another day was normal. Life in a Star Trek universe was not taken for granted, expected, or even known about. Death is the way of all flesh. That was known and it did not stop people from living.
Post by: K-Dog on May 24, 2021, 09:43:02 pm
Quote
I've explained why I believe his catabolic collapse thesis is only correct re consumer culture standard of living but not to a point of starvation and not applying to govt apparatus
I get from this you think gentle contraction in the form of non-essentials is possible (consumer items) but essentials of life can't enjoy a gradual contraction(starvation). I'm not sure what you mean by government apparatus.
By choice government wants to grow but governments are also replaced. Sometimes with replacements being of inferior capability.
I think with population as big as it is now a catabolic collapse can't happen. There will be a point where available energy supplies can't move food to where it is needed. Then all hell will break loose. Climate change will soon make trade of food a critical necessity for peace or local food shortages will lead to starvation and armed conflict.
We went into overshoot and built complex systems which require huge energy inputs. Life depends on these complex systems working because the only way current technology can feed everybody is with these complex systems working. The complex systems can't be shrunk. All they can do is break.
Post by: Phil Potts on May 24, 2021, 04:06:53 pm
Now I have to go shovel some real sh*t.
Suppose someone at Walmart steals a 98c candy bar, while you fill a shopping trolley with 50 assorted items, all priced 98c, $1.98, $4.98, etc and the supermarket rounds each one off to the nearest 5c individually. Our opinions on this is what Walmart still stole overall, 2c.
JMG loves being a minor celebrity, some people may not like that and expect greater humility, too bad. He has provided tons of free material.
I've explained why I believe his catabolic collapse thesis is only correct re consumer culture standard of living but not to a point of starvation and not applying to govt apparatus, so wrong overall. I won't make the whole argument all over again. I'm still happy to have his take and not going to hate him for having a different opinion.
I have the same rule as you across social media, in fact this is the only place Im not using my real name. One, don't say anything I wouldn't say to someone face and six, don't say anything out of pure meanness, only for the point of teaching something.
Post by: Digwe Must on May 24, 2021, 11:36:10 am
"If I ascribe motives to anyone and they have a problem with me. They can be in my face about it easy enough.
No they can't. You are insulated by technology from actually facing anyone. In my own opinion it doesn't take guts or integrity to insult people online. Perhaps not being anonymous has some virtue, but you are still not looking the person in the eye.
Because I am damn near computer illiterate I found a simple rule to be much easier for me to follow than trying to parse some subtleties of online etiquette. When online I don't say anything to, or about, anyone that I wouldn't say to their face, in person. Easy. Simple. Old fashioned. Having been in real scuffles occasionally through my life I simply do not see the courage or integrity in insulting people from thousands of miles away. I better be careful here. Someone might send me a mean-faced emoji. The horror.
Now I have to go shovel some real sh*t. We're finally getting a little rain. Thank God.
I may visit with you all again. I may not. I wish you all well.
Post by: K-Dog on May 24, 2021, 09:31:47 am
Quote
I did not say YOU should not ascribe motives to JMG.
Thank you for being clear. I don't mind emphasizing the point.
* Anonymous people can say things which make them trolls. If a person can be identified they place themselves open for rebuttal and that changes the equation. So real people can say critical things without being a troll. Hence my reference to not hiding.
Post by: Digwe Must on May 24, 2021, 06:49:24 am
Just a quick point. I did not say YOU should not ascribe motives to JMG. Sorry if I wasn't clear. I said I was not comfortable doing so - even though I have also had a few personal interactions with the guy. You can, of course, "damn well" say anything you want. I was referring to my own viewpoint. The rest of that brief statement of mine that you quoted stands.
Who is accusing you of hiding? Where did you get that from my statement?
Did you wake up this morning and decide to pick a fight? Or, do you just want this forum for those who agree only with you? If so, let me know and I will not darken your door again.
Post by: K-Dog on May 24, 2021, 06:09:11 am
Quote
I will say to KDog that I'm not really comfortable ascribing motives to JMG. I often disagree with him - but respect his mind and viewpoint. I don't think he needs a novel theory of collapse to be considered different. That takes care of itself. I have his book "The Long Descent" from 2008. It's held up fairly well.
JMG was in the Seattle area before he went east. He hammed as much time as he could on our local news.
I have been following JMG for thirty years and the only doomers who have followed him that long are right here in Seattle with me or were. I have also had personal interaction with JMG.
I damn well will ascribe motives to him if I want to.
AND:
Among the doom gurus he is the one I respect the most.
I am K-Dog true. But I am not anonymous and am easily contacted. If I ascribe motives to anyone and they have a problem with me. They can be in my face about it easy enough. I am not hiding.
Post by: John of Wallan on May 24, 2021, 12:49:27 am
JOW
Text of previous link:
Arctic Ocean invaded by hot, salty water
Sea surface temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere have been rising dramatically over the years, as illustrated by above image, indicating that the latent heat tipping point is getting crossed, while the methane hydrates tipping point could get crossed soon, depending on developments.
At the moment, the surface temperature of most of the Arctic ocean's is still below 0°C.
Heat is entering the Arctic Ocean from the south, as illustrated by the image on the right. Hot, salty water is entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean as currents dive underneath the ice, causing the ice to melt from below.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
The image on the right, from the NSIDC article A step in our Spring, compares sea ice age between March 12 to 18 for the years 1985 (a) and 2021 (b).
The bottom graph (c) shows a time series from 1985 to 2021 of percent ice coverage of the Arctic Ocean domain. The Arctic Ocean domain is depicted in the inset map with purple shading.
At the end of the ice growth season in mid-March, 73.3% of the Arctic Ocean domain was covered by first-year ice, while 3.5% was covered by ice 4+ years old.
This compares to 70.6% and 4.4% respectively in March 2020.
In March 1985, near the beginning of the ice age record, the Arctic Ocean region was comprised of nearly equal amounts of first-year ice (39.3%) and 4+ year-old ice (30.6%).
Sea ice that hasn't yet survived a summer melt season is referred to as first-year ice. This thin, new ice is vulnerable to melt and disintegration in stormy conditions. Ice that survives a summer melt season can grow thicker and less salty, since snow that thickens the ice contains little salt. Thickness and salt content determine the resistance of the ice to melt. Multiyear ice is more likely to survive temperatures that would melt first-year ice, and to survive waves and winds that would break up first-year ice.
The image on the right shows a forecast of the thickness of the sea ice, run on May 20, 2021 and valid for May 21, 2021.
An area is visible north of Severnaya Zemlya toward the North Pole where thickness is getting very thin, while there is one spot where the ice has virtually disappeared.
The spot is likely a melting iceberg, the animation on the right shows that the spot has been there for quite a few days, while the freshwater in this spot appears to result from melting amid salty water.
Overall, sea ice is getting very thin, indicating that the buffer constituted by the sea ice underneath the surface is almost gone, meaning that further heat entering the Arctic Ocean will strongly heat up the water.
As the animation underneath on the right shows, freshwater is entering the Arctic Ocean due to runoff from land, i.e. rainwater from rivers, meltwater from glaciers and groundwater runoff from thawing permafrost.
At the same time, very salty water is entering the Arctic Ocean from the Atlantic Ocean.
The map below shows how salty and hot water from the Atlantic Ocean enters the Arctic Ocean along two currents, flowing on each side of Svalbard, and meeting at this area north of Severnaya Zemlya where thickness is getting very low.
The blue color on the map indicates depth (see scale underneath).
The image below, by Malcolm Light and based on Max & Lowrie (1993), from a recent post, shows vulnerable Arctic Ocean slope and deep water methane hydrates zones below 300 m depth.
Malcolm Light indicates three areas:
Area 1. Methane hydrates on the slope;
Area 2. Methane hydrates on the abyssal plane;
Area 3. Methane hydrates associated with the spreading Gakkel Ridge hydro-thermal activity (the Gakkel Riidge runs in between the northern tip of Greenland and the Laptev Sea).
The freezing point of freshwater is 0°C or 32°F. For salty water, the freezing point is -2°C or 28.4°F.
During April 2021, sea ice was about 160 cm thick.
In June and July 2021, thickness will fall rapidly, as illustrated by the image on the right by Nico Sun.
Sea ice acts as a buffer, by consuming energy in the process of melting, thus avoiding that this energy causes a temperature rise of the water.
As long as there is sea ice in the water, this sea ice will keep absorbing heat as it melts, so the temperature will not rise at the sea surface and remain at zero°C. The amount of energy that is consumed in the process of melting the ice is as much as it takes to heat an equivalent mass of water from zero°C to 80°C.
The accumulated ice melt energy until now is the highest on record, as illustrated by the image on the right, by Nico Sun.
The image below further illustrate the danger. As the temperature of the water keeps rising, more heat will reach sediments at the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean that contain vast amounts of methane, as discussed at this page and in this post.
Ominously, methane levels reached a peak of 2901 ppb at 469 mb on May 13, 2021.
In the extract of a 2008 paper, Natalia Shakhova et al. conclude:
". . we consider release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage as highly possible for abrupt release at any time."
The video below contains excerpts from Nick Breeze's interview with Natalia Shakhova at the European Geophysical Union in Vienna, 2012, on the likelihood and timeframe of a large methane release from the seafloor of the Arctic Ocean.
Natalia Shakhova: "The total amount of methane in the atmosphere is about 5Gt. The amount of carbon in the form of methane in this Arctic shelf is - approximately - from hundreds to thousands Gt and, of course, only 1% of [such an] amount is required to double the atmospheric burden of methane."
"But to destabilize 1% of this carbon pool, I think, not much effort is needed, considering the state of the permafrost and the amount of methane involved, because what divides the methane from the atmosphere is a very shallow water column and the weakening permafrost, which is losing its ability to seal, to serve as a seal, and this is, I think, not a matter of thousands of years, it's a matter of decades, at most hundred years."
(Natalia talks with Igor Semiletov)
Natalia Shakhova: "Just because this area is seismically and tectonically active, and there was some investigation that the tectonic activity was increasing, and the seismic activity, the destabiliation of the ground, just mechanical forcing destabiliation [may suffice to act as] additional pathway for this methane to escape. There are many factors that are very convincing for us [to conclude] that it might happen."
Elaborating on the timeframe.
Natalia Shakhova: "Not any time, any time sounds like it might happen today, it might happen tomorrow, the day after tomorrow . . "
Igor Simelitov: "It might!"
In the video below, Peter Wadhams analyses the threat of Arctic methane releases.
The video below Nick Breee interviews Igor Semiletov on methane plumes detected during 2020 field research over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS).
In the video below, Guy McPherson discusses the situation.
In conclusion, temperatures could rise dramatically soon. A 3°C will likely suffice for humans to go extinct, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen in the longer term. On the other hand, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
Links
• NOAA Climate at a Glance
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/nhem/ocean/ann/4/1997-2020
• Danish Meteorological Institute - Arctic temperature
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
• Freezing point of water - Climate Change: Arctic sea ice
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent
• Arctic surface temperature
http://ocean.dmi.dk/anim/index.uk.php
• NSIDC: A step in our Spring, image credit: T. Tschudi, University of Colorado, and W. Meier and J.S. Stewart, National Snow and Ice Data Center/Image by W. Meier
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2021/05/a-step-in-our-spring
• Arctic sea ice - thickness and salinity - navy.mil
https://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/GLBhycomcice1-12/arctic.html
• CryosphereComputing - by Nico Sun
https://cryospherecomputing.tk
• A 4.5 km resolution Arctic Ocean simulation with the global multi-resolution model FESOM 1.4 - by Qiang Wang et al.
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/11/1229/2018/
• Max, M.D. & Lowrie, A. 1993. Natural gas hydrates: Arctic and Nordic Sea potential. In: Vorren, T.O., Bergsager, E., Dahl-Stamnes, A., Holter, E., Johansen, B., Lie, E. & Lund, T.B. Arctic Geology and Petroleum Potential, Proceedings of the Norwegian Petroleum Society Conference, 15-17 August 1990, Tromso, Norway. Norwegian Petroleum Society (NPF), Special Publication 2 Elsevier, Amsterdam, 27-53.
https://www.elsevier.com/books/arctic-geology-and-petroleum-potential/vorren/978-0-444-88943-0
• Extinction by 2027- by Malcolm Light
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2021/05/extinction-by-2027.html
• MetOp satellite - methane
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/atmosphere/soundings/iasi
• Anomalies of methane in the atmosphere over the East Siberian shelf: Is there any sign of methane leakage from shallow shelf hydrates? - by Shakhova, Semiletov, Salyuk and Kosmach (2008)
https://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2008/01526/EGU2008-A-01526.pdf
• The Threat
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/threat.html
• When will we die?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/06/when-will-we-die.html
• A rise of 18°C or 32.4°F by 2026?
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/02/a-rise-of-18c-or-324f-by-2026.html
• Most Important Message Ever
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2019/07/most-important-message-ever.html
• Climate Plan
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/p/climateplan.html
Post by: John of Wallan on May 24, 2021, 12:47:20 am
Link:
https://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
A lot of data and a few videos including one from the favorite Guy.
JOW
Post by: K-Dog on May 23, 2021, 06:51:26 am
Yeah, Paul should probably take a break from watching paint dry for a while. Watching a pot of water waiting to boil might be a better analogy than paint drying.
If the new 'findings' about Pacific Ocean water going through the Bearing Straight creating 'heat bombs concerns' you but you can't figure out the exact same bombs must have happened when Nero was Caesar. you need a break.
Research has coming out saying heat bombs are lurking in the Arctic depths sometimes for years and they can come up at any time melting ice. A balance between high salinity and temperature expansions making warm water sink.
I like Paul and think he has a good head on his shoulders. But this idea of heat bombs coming up the Bearing Straight like a monster from outer space to lurk in the depths is more infectious than Covid. And a great waste of mental resources.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.tenor.com%2Fimages%2F3bffc89b5c0c504fb13a1c416f8f0a30%2Ftenor.gif&f=1&nofb=1)
I assume the Cali researchers contemplating heat bombs learned how much energy it takes to melt ice at some point.
This is a situation where an accurate computer model would be the only way to reveal if there could and not if, there be a danger. You have to get a river of water flowing along a shallow continental shelf with colder water coming back over on top of it.
For 800 Kilometers with no prime mover.
Quote
The Chukchi Sea bottom is the 700-kilometer-long (430 mi) Hope Basin, which is bound to the northeast by the Herald Arch. Depths less than 50 meters (160 ft) occupy 56% of the total area.
So much for lurking in the depths. Given that the temperature and salinity differences are small and the area huge, math of chaos theory says it is not going to happen. Development of chaos theory benefited from the study of thermal convection, which is interesting but not otherwise relevant.
I am not able to find evidence that there is significant current through the Bearing Straight. I can't imagine a significant physical process that could drive one.
Post by: John of Wallan on May 22, 2021, 11:05:59 pm
Seems timelines are getting shorter not longer.
Me thinks we are right to be alarmed.
A Smorgasbord of Abrupt Climate System Disruption Science and Dire Consequences to Humanity
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0mlZvG7Alw
JOW
Post by: Digwe Must on May 22, 2021, 06:02:45 am
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2021-05-19/why-worry-about-collapse/
Post by: RE on May 20, 2021, 06:27:30 pm
RE At my age I found your calculation of how many women per day a fertile man would be expected to "visit" to be a terrifying prospect. Not exactly a fate worse than death - but death would be the probable result. Thankfully an issue I won't need to...probe...any further.
The closest equivalent you could get would be the male **** stars of the 70s like John Holmes who relied on a variety of drugs to be able to "perform" for the camera several times during a shooting day. Imagine trying to do that day in and day out, nearly endlessly. Add to the problem that not every one would be a stunner like Genevieve or your favorite fantasy girl from your sexual peak years. Imagine you have had a long day and your last filly of the day to mount is Roseanne Barr...AAACCCCKKK! lol.
The fantasy turned into nightmare reality was depicted in a the cult classic Apocalypse film "A Boy & his Dog", where Don Johnson ends up hooked to a machine that extracts his semen as he is "married" to a succession of girls to refresh the genome of Topeka, KS gone underground.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GzEOWIOnmpc
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on May 20, 2021, 05:35:03 pm
Post by: Digwe Must on May 20, 2021, 03:41:00 pm
"The wheel is turning
and you can't slow down
You can't let go
and you can't hold on
You can't go back
and you can't stand still
If the thunder don't get you
then the lightning will
Won't you try just a little bit harder
Couldn't you try just a little bit more?
Won't you try just a little bit harder?
Couldn't you try just a little bit more?"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QzGWYShgmfk
RE is certainly correct when he states that collapse will not be spread evenly about the landscape. It won't be democratic or fair. Those who profit most from creating the conditions for collapse may just get off to their private islands and have wonderful lives.
Below are some particularly good points you all made. Unfortunately, I think a slow descent to a more sustainable future is the least likely outcome. So much can go wrong with that scenario. As others point out once a key cog goes missing - there goes the whole shootin' match.
I will say to KDog that I'm not really comfortable ascribing motives to JMG. I often disagree with him - but respect his mind and viewpoint. I don't think he needs a novel theory of collapse to be considered different. That takes care of itself. I have his book "The Long Descent" from 2008. It's held up fairly well.
RE At my age I found your calculation of how many women per day a fertile man would be expected to "visit" to be a terrifying prospect. Not exactly a fate worse than death - but death would be the probable result. Thankfully an issue I won't need to...probe...any further.
That is the classic fast collapse versus slow collapse debate though. Do you need to train up enough animal traction that fast? That point of view assumes you go from the status quo to doing the same thing with horses... Time to re localize food production. Then maybe retire the tractors maybe but lots of wasted energy to trim first.
Even with this though you have the fact that it won't be uniform geographically or politically because of the way the population is currently distributed with the vast preponderance of global population living in urban and suburban locales. The inequality in resource distribution, power and money means there will follow significant dieoff through warfare, which will negatively make up for any relief on population pressure you might get from conservation and fuel substitution. You're likely to see similar dieoff numbers and outcomes in either scenario. Basically, the system is FUBAR no matter how you cut it.
... The Orwellian state will starve you to pay for its own apparatus of control as long as possible. When that's gone there's a power vacuum and only communities that already have trust among its members as well as ability to feed itself can attempt new old ways.
. Also, as Gail states, conflict is a given and not just from the early 20th C she cited. It's been a given across the entirety of human history. I don't believe that can be a controlled burn.There will be no such managed deconstruction of high tech digitised society unless there is first a lot of decentralization. States having autonomy from federal govts and then localities having even more and becoming truly democratic. The Orwellian state will starve you to pay for its own apparatus of control as long as possible. When that's gone there's a power vacuum and only communities that already have trust among its members as well as ability to feed itself can attempt new old ways. That rules out all metropolitan population to begin with.
It seems clear there are moves toward a managed decline in population over time with an overall reduction of per capita consumption for the vast majority. As long as people are eating they will comply, regardless of what they are fed such as insect protein or lab grown meat. Middle classes are systematically cheated out of assetts by such things as bans on evictions and big corporations gain greater monopoly. Big fish being unable to help themselves **** everyone else over might not be able to share the spoils. Also, as Gail states, conflict is a given and not just from the early 20th C she cited. It's been a given across the entirety of human history. I don't believe that can be a controlled burn.
RE
We might be in for a slow collapse, but it wont be smooth...
I see sharp drops from time to time in standard of living when something else becomes unobtainable.
More saw tooth than gentle curve down to stone age..
We live in such an interconnected world, that any disruption seems magnified. Think shortage of chips right not and auto production. Just in time= no safety stocks when SNAFU's occur."Slow collapse debate?
We can't have a slow collapse very long. Without coming together to get through this thing, resource constraints will lead to death and conflict. I say there is no way around it under any business as usual scenario which is necessary in a slow collapse.
“Growth is slow, while the road to ruin is fast.” Seneca.
The only reason there is a slow 'debate' is because John Greer the former archdruid (before he decided to hide behind the history of magic or some such) made it up just to be different. JMG's motivation was literary and not having to do with how the world really works. Unfortunately because he has a following John was taken seriously.
Things may start going in the direction of a slow collapse but that kind of balancing act can't be maintained. It would be like trying to make a pencil stand on its point. Collapse is characterized by shortage. It will not take long before a shortage becomes critical and mayhem results.
Post by: RE on May 20, 2021, 10:46:09 am
a.
The only reason there is a slow 'debate' is because John Greer the former archdruid (before he decided to hide behind the history of magic or some such) made it up just to be different. JMG's motivation was literary and not having to do with how the world really works. Unfortunately because he has a following John was taken seriously.
In fairness to Mr.Wizard, he's not the only famous Collapse Pundit to promote this idea, Kunstler says basically the same thing with his "Long Emergency". As you say. once something critical goes MIA, the emergency won't last all that long. Survivors will be neck deep in corpses in no time. David Korowicz had it most accurately with his papers on supply chain cross contagion and irreversibility of systems.
The main question remains just when that critical Domino will fall, and where. After that,the whole of industrial civilization is likely to tumble down about at the same rate as a domino setup does.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DQQN_79QrDY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dLRjiiAawGg
RE
Post by: K-Dog on May 20, 2021, 09:35:32 am
We can't have a slow collapse very long. Without coming together to get through this thing, resource constraints will lead to death and conflict. I say there is no way around it under any business as usual scenario which is necessary in a slow collapse. Look at how comfortable America is right now with Israeli war crimes. The will to survive as a species is simply not there. People only think of themselves.
“Growth is slow, while the road to ruin is fast.” Seneca.
The only reason there is a slow 'debate' is because John Greer the former archdruid (before he decided to hide behind the history of magic or some such) made it up just to be different. JMG's motivation was literary and not having to do with how the world really works. Unfortunately because he has a following John was taken seriously.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.qVdvQSFdWQDCioZmCb9WjgHaEA%26pid%3DApi&f=1)
Things may start going in the direction of a slow collapse but that kind of balancing act can't be maintained. It would be like trying to make a pencil stand on its point. Collapse is characterized by shortage. It will not take long before a shortage becomes critical and mayhem results.
Post by: RE on May 20, 2021, 06:54:28 am
Although warfare is inevitable, the rapidly lowering sperm counts and declining birth rates in the developed world may obviate the need for conflict to adjust the population to a viable level. The last I read the sperm count (now down 60%) is on an inexorable march to zero - expected by 2045.
Children of Men time! :o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VT2apoX90o&t=48s
That sort of reduction is asymptotic and I doubt it ever goes completely to zero. One also has to suspect once the population crashes and the industrial poisons start washing out of the environment, fertility will go back on the increase. This is a lot like the mice subjected to crowding conditions which has been heavily researched. Then you also have techno-solutions like cloning and selection for fertile males by governments. If you happen to be the one fertile guy with 99% of the other guys sterile, you would be in very high demand and put out to stud. ;D How many women can you service a month? Figure 3/day for about 90 different ones. :o This would quickly start to seem like a lot of work, lol. The fillies better all resemble Genevieve Bujold to keep me going another round. ;D
(https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcT4aLhJUQFiQmVO601tUOy9SWzMhe5lwwXbmQ&usqp=CAU)
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on May 20, 2021, 06:13:32 am
The pace of collapse is critical to how "civilized" we remain on the way down. RE is correct that if we are to calculate the human/animal ratio necessary for a full return to animal and human power we need to go pre-railroad and 1850 is about right.
I believe it is also true that we are hard-wired for conflict. The more rapid and complete the collapse the more likely the all-against-all scenario. War will tend to f*ckup all the stuff laying around that can be repurposed.
Railroad tracks will still be in place and, of course, rivers and lakes will still be there for transport. In Montana the steamboats ran all the way up the Missouri River to Fort Benton until they were replaced by the railroads in the 1860s.
Although warfare is inevitable, the rapidly lowering sperm counts and declining birth rates in the developed world may obviate the need for conflict to adjust the population to a viable level. The last I read the sperm count (now down 60%) is on an inexorable march to zero - expected by 2045.
Post by: John of Wallan on May 19, 2021, 07:23:46 pm
I see sharp drops from time to time in standard of living when something else becomes unobtainable.
More saw tooth than gentle curve down to stone age..
We live in such an interconnected world, that any disruption seems magnified. Think shortage of chips right not and auto production. Just in time= no safety stocks when SNAFU's occur.
An example: A small interruption to the power grid for a month or 2 will result in chaos beyond belief in cities. No food, sanitation, lighting, petrol (bowsers wont work). It can be caused by something as simple as a computer virus, a storm or a bit of sun spot activity, or be caused by the bankruptcy of a power company or local government. Cities would burn as looting takes place. Populations would flee or be killed in the mayhem.
Repeat for shortages of fuel, staple foods, common medicines and basic antibiotics, infrastructure failures, water supply, GPS of phone systems,
The next pandemic, but this time more deadly, or if some fuckknuckle actually starts a hot war to get reelected. Worked well for Thatcher in 83, and Bibi looks like he is using the same play book.
JOW
Post by: Phil Potts on May 19, 2021, 07:05:20 pm
It seems clear there are moves toward a managed decline in population over time with an overall reduction of per capita consumption for the vast majority. As long as people are eating they will comply, regardless of what they are fed such as insect protein or lab grown meat. Middle classes are systematically cheated out of assetts by such things as bans on evictions and big corporations gain greater monopoly. Big fish being unable to help themselves **** everyone else over might not be able to share the spoils. Also, as Gail states, conflict is a given and not just from the early 20th C she cited. It's been a given across the entirety of human history. I don't believe that can be a controlled burn.
Post by: RE on May 19, 2021, 05:44:39 pm
That is the classic fast collapse versus slow collapse debate though. Do you need to train up enough animal traction that fast? That point of view assumes you go from the status quo to doing the same thing with horses. Right now more then half the field crops we grow goes to feeding livestock in centralized operations. As collapse shows up I would expect that world to disappear. That is the low hanging fruit of agricultural waste. I expect the GPS controlled combine to disappear but tractors? I could see nationalized fuel for agriculture but not a return of draft animals. Not at first. That gearing down would buy you time. Time to turn all the wooded over farms back to pasture and hay fields. Time to de centralise livestock to get the nutrients back into a rotation and shrink the fossil fuel costs. Time to re localize food production. Then maybe retire the tractors maybe but lots of wasted energy to trim first.
I was only responding to the idea of "Turning Amish", not to stepping down the energy ladder through conservation and fuel substitutes like wood gas or renewable electrics or adding more nuke puke generating capacity. All of those can work to extend out the perion of techno-farming to a century or even more, especially with an ongoing population shrinkage through the time period. This works out to a somewhat more "slow catabolic collapse" or "long emergency" style end game, although in geologic or evwen historical terms it is still pretty quick. Even with this though you have the fact that it won't be uniform geographically or politically because of the way the population is currently distributed with the vast preponderance of global population living in urban and suburban locales. The inequality in resource distribution, power and money means there will follow significant dieoff through warfare, which will negatively make up for any relief on population pressure you might get from conservation and fuel substitution. You're likely to see similar dieoff numbers and outcomes in either scenario. Basically, the system is FUBAR no matter how you cut it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWWwM2wwMww
RE
Post by: Nearings fault on May 19, 2021, 05:07:15 pm
Post by: RE on May 19, 2021, 04:11:39 pm
Good to hear from you, RE. Hope things are improving for you.In 1920 Tractors were already replacing horses for planting and harvesting. To get a reasonably accurate population ratio humans/draft animals for going the Full Amish with Ag you would probably need to go back to 1850 or so. Given current population numbers you would need conservatively 50-100X as many drafte animals as you did back then, and then you would need to be able to grow all the foodin reasonable proximity to where they worked to feed them as well. Needless to say, with deple ted topsoil, drought conditions in many places and lack of FF based fertilizers this would be mathematically impossible to do.
You are correct about the ability to breed the necessary number of equines in short order to move agriculture to animal power. As I noted earlier, there were about 108 million people in the US in 1920. There were about 25 million equines. (some sources say that number applies to horses, some to mules) You can train up oxen quicker than equines but they are not as versatile. There are about 9 million domestic equines in the US now, and about 10 million dairy cattle. The gestation period for a horse is 11-12 months.
To even have a ghost of a chance at going the Full Amish you would first need a Human Population Dieoff around 2 orders of magnitude, or 99%. A dieoff of that magnitude over the short term (say one generation or around 25 years) would so destroy social cohesion you wouldn't be able to get in place the animal breeding program and infrastructure necessary to accomplish this changeover. So you would see another 1-2 order of magnitude human population decrease down to 99.9 or 99.99% Dead People. At that point the Animal Power is no longer necessary and your global human popuation is at Paleolithic levels and you could survive as H-Gs.
This is a Systems Irreversibility problem: While it was possible to go from Horses to Tractors in one generation, you can't go the other way from Tractors back to Horses in the same time span. You're going to have a significant period of Undershoot before you might get back up to Amish technology levels and population numbers.
RE
Post by: Digwe Must on May 19, 2021, 01:50:51 pm
You are correct about the ability to breed the necessary number of equines in short order to move agriculture to animal power. As I noted earlier, there were about 108 million people in the US in 1920. There were about 25 million equines. (some sources say that number applies to horses, some to mules) You can train up oxen quicker than equines but they are not as versatile. There are about 9 million domestic equines in the US now, and about 10 million dairy cattle. The gestation period for a horse is 11-12 months.
As a brief side note I've been around mules just a little. Not in agricultural settings but in the backcountry. They are sure footed, strong as hell and smart. Someday I may tell you the story of Percy the white mule and Pablo his horse buddy.
As collapse accelerates there will be a lot of salvage available, so I expect clever people will cushion things a bit on the way down. Don't know that we will reach stone age, but that may be wishful thinking on my part.
As I recall, but don't have the time at this moment to look up, Donella Meadows and the Limits To Growth publications from the Club of Rome had a chart of how things would play out on a macro scale. They've generally been pretty close. I don't think they had the human population peak and retreat until after food and other resources started to decline. We may be at the declining food availability stage now. This summer will tell.
Every day I am more aware of the ongoing ecological collapse. Missing insects, disappearing birds, dying trees, vanishing wetlands, declining fish stocks, on and f*cking on. I claim no expertise, but I know quite a few people who have spent their professional lives as wildlife biologists, foresters soil scientists, fisheries biologists, hydrologists etc. I do not know one who thinks we aren't in severe crisis. There is not debate among these folks. The climate and fossil fuel crises are just part of the equation. It ain't just physics and will. It ain't just a decline that might be somewhat difficult but can be solved with the proper engineering.
Meanwhile, the ravens are after turkey eggs and they have their eye on the goslings. Might have to shoot one. We cut lilacs for wine today and the fruit trees have massive blooms. I'm experimenting with fermented Korean style foliar sprays this season.
We have a buff hen who set eggs this year. After 25 days it became obvious that either the eggs weren't fertile or they'd gotten cold before she set them. As it turned out the feed store was giving away 6 chicks free with a purchase of chick feed. My wife got the chicks and placed them under the hen. She instantly accepted them and is now the proud mama. Pretty cute. More chicks arrive in the mail tomorrow. I'm trying some Bielefelders this year for the size.
We proceed on. "Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana" - Groucho
Post by: RE on May 19, 2021, 08:52:05 am
I get collapse equating to living like the Amish.
I doubt Amish level living will be maintained all that long. Depends too much on mining, metallurgy and supply lines for farm implements. Also doubtful all the horses necessary can be bred up fast enough. Stone Age technology is the more likely outcome of collapse.
RE
Post by: Phil Potts on May 18, 2021, 03:18:10 pm
A wise Air Force academy physics professor once told me, "Son, there are only 2 things in this world that matter. Physics, and the will of man." He ventured this comment during a debate on the value of learning economics. The point being, the social science describing the way humans behave is just as important to how and what we are as the fundamental laws of the universe.
All depends on your definition of collapse. Your neighbor loses his job? Recession. You lose yours? Collapse. Me, I pick an easy metric. For example, has the number of deaths in a year exceeded the number of births? Nope. But if that condition is met, you can bet the world we live in might look somewhat like collapse. That metric and us all discussing our favorite recipes for long pork over a campfire? Now we might be getting close!
I'm wondering what the will of man is meant to inform us in this instance. Is it faith that man will invent new energy sources or simply survive as in previous civilization collapse. On every continent there are ruins of high civilization that was lost and replaced with simple subsistence of survivors. China being the exception of being the only continuous civilization after 5000 yrs and Europe as continuos after 500 or1000 yrs. You can decide whether you want to take it as beginning with the Renaissance or beginning with the ability to build castles several centuries after the Romans left, taking with them the ability to make cement. It is incorrect to claim ancient Greece and Rome for western civilization as they were extensions of Mediterranean models.
across the developed world, we have already passed the falling birth rates associated with previous civilizations that never recovered, believed to be about 1.7 children per woman. If you excluded recent immigrants that do the heavy lifting in that regard and looked only at natives in Europe, second generation immigrants in the rest of the anglosphere, plus Sth Korea and Japan, birth rate would be below 1.5.
Yes, when EVERYONE has lost their jobs it probably can't be mistaken as anything but collapse. Declining standard of living overall now incorprates a lot more underemployment than just unemployment. Casual contracts, gig economy and wages lagging far behind inflation, resulted in most people living paycheck to paycheck and in debt.
Post by: Digwe Must on May 18, 2021, 09:47:37 am
You mean, like those who predicted it even before she did in 2008? That was primarily Deffeyes and Campbell, but the most interesting fact about the many other folks? The only claim of peak oil circa 1990-2008 (when Gail did hers) that hasn't been discredited by reality? The EIA and their call for 2037."
Sorry I wasn't more clear. Gail separated herself from the peak Oil crowd a few years ago by asserting that it was not scarcity and high prices that would crash oil production, but lower prices (below production cost) that would result from the consumer's inability to pay for it. (Remember no growth in US wages for over 40 years). Demand falls and takes the price below the level necessary to spur production. Being old and slow, it struck me as counterintuitive at first, but after reading her explanations a few times I got it. So far, her take on things seems closer to the actual path we are on. Time will tell.
That is why and where (at least in the US) Ponzi finance and government subsidies enter the equation. That is why there is much consolidation and bankruptcy in the drillers, even in the Bakken and Eagle Ford.
The Trump administration attempted a public land giveaway to big oil and in several instances was successful. His administration put oil and gas and mining lobbyists in charge of federal land agencies. The Biden administration has put a moratorium on new leasing but there are many, many leases still active. There are 26 million acres under lease, only half of which have been developed.
https://www.hcn.org/issues/53.3/north-public-lands-public-land-is-no-longer-on-sale-to-oil-and-gas-companies
As a disclaimer I should be out front and say that we have been actively fighting oil and gas exploitation on public land for over 25 years. I say "we" but it is my wife who is the person responsible for saving a large chunk of sacred (to Native Americans)and environmentally priceless landscape. All I did was tell them they were going to have to run over me with the first bulldozer. If big oil had been allowed to pillage the Rocky Mountain Front the return to the US taxpayer for the sale of drilling rights would have been about $10 per acre. It ain't just physics.
Must go move irrigation. It is so dry - so early.
Post by: John of Wallan on May 17, 2021, 09:24:07 pm
Fracking and tar sands may be old technology, but it was not economical at $5 a barrel oil out of OPEC. It took expensive oil for it to make economic sense. Some say it never did, depending on your accounting... Electric car technology has been around 120 years too. They seem to be making sense to some people now more than previously it seems.
I think you will find conventional oil peaked in 2008 +/- a few years. 2018 oil "Miracle" was from fracking. It will be short lived due to high cost of production and high depletion rate of wells. They have the Red queen syndrome: Have to drill more and more wells to keep up wit current demand.
Really in the scheme of things +/- 10 years is a rounding error and +/-100 years is still a blip in the human timeline, so your definition of short term may differ to mine.
JOW.
Post by: John of Wallan on May 17, 2021, 06:18:56 pm
Buddy, here is how I see it:
1. EROEI can be temporarily off set by increasing debt to some degree, but only for a short time, and only if we use one available energy source to produce another. Think ethanol from corn, or hydrogen using coal fired electricity..
2. Tar sands create a very low EROEI, but I am told is still profitable... It does not however take into account ecological costs. Poison rivers, scarred landscape. Bit like nuclear power; if remediation/ de-commissioning costs are added to the equation they don't make money.
3. We hit peak conventional oil in 2008. We could not increase output even when prices spiked to $180 a litre of petrol here in Shitsville. Since then unconventional oil such as fracking came on stream, only because interest rates were at near zero allowing companies to borrow money and invest in previously non-profitable projects.
4. Low EROEI will not allow us to maintain our current high standard of living which is possible due to excess energy. See life before oil: Little house on the prairie, but less smiling and more hard work....
JOW
Post by: K-Dog on May 17, 2021, 05:44:28 pm
Quote
Sums it up nicely indeed. Loved the narrators voice.
The bit about topsoil loss is 25 minutes in. It is a good primer on depletion resource issues. Which I hope the climate change community tunes into soon.
(https://chasingthesquirrel.com/public/pics/philosoraptor2.png)
What is taking them so long?
Post by: K-Dog on May 17, 2021, 04:55:25 pm
You run into muskeg and boreal forest.
Yes, summer can get long and warm enough to grow something, but rock and bog will not grow crops.
Post by: Digwe Must on May 17, 2021, 11:31:22 am
https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/
Interesting article on expected climate refugees in North America.....
JOW
KDog is right. Fascinating. Thanks for posting.
Agriculture can't just move north further than where it is now. You run into muskeg and boreal forest.
Post by: K-Dog on May 17, 2021, 09:50:32 am
https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/
Interesting article on expected climate refugees in North America.....
JOW
Yes, Fascinating. The fact there is no energy supply to accomplish migration on a large scale with is left out. As always.
Post by: K-Dog on May 17, 2021, 09:35:55 am
no vast expanse of prairie with topsoil 6 feet deep
Every time it gets plowed without new organic matter added, topsoil is lost. I learned that last week 8)
Post by: Digwe Must on May 17, 2021, 08:20:01 am
The people perpetrating tar sands extraction should be jailed. The damage will take many lifetimes to heal - if ever, and a terrible EROEI.
I confess to having a bit of difficulty taking the Little House On the Prairie thing seriously... I get it that it serves as a metaphor or idealized vision of a simpler animal and human powered society where everyone is clean, white, well-fed, modestly dressed and where there is an abundance of shiny, well trained equines ready to do the necessary work to feed you.
The basic missing ingredient for such a vision is the frontier. Those humans who survive collapse will live in an age of salvage. They will face completely different challenges. There will be no vast expanse of prairie with topsoil 6 feet deep, free for the taking (once those pesky natives and the bison are removed). There are no virgin forests of old growth timber or creeks thick with the redfish.
A practical note on animal power: There are 3.5 - 5 million horses in the US today. (depending on which estimate you use) How many are trained for work? I don't mean taking a saddle and a rider - I mean work. The gestation period for horses is 11 - 12 months. The best estimate I can find for mules puts the current count at under 30,000. In 1920 there were 25 million. Even with a dramatically reduced human population you will still face an immediate shortage of working animals.
There are about 10 million dairy cows in the US. Half of their calves will be bulls. Fortunately, Holsteins are among the most trainable cattle out there. An inexperienced handler can start with small calves and within a year have a trained team capable of doing useful work. As they mature, of course, they are capable of doing immense amounts of critical work in agriculture, forestry, construction, etc. Oxen have advantages and disadvantages when compared to horses and mules. Until white people spread past the Appalachians oxen were common among settlers in the east. For that matter, many an acre was plowed with the family cow. They are still found - and going strong - in New England and the upper Midwest.
If there is a shift to animal power and a slow increase in the working equine population there will be a need for farriers and harness makers. This will take as long as it takes to build the equine population. I'm aware of farriers around, but saddle and harness makers are a rare breed.
One advantage of oxen is that if you have a team with a yoke and a chain you can go logging or plowing. The necessary rig for horses to do the same work is much more complex. I had a single (huge ) ox and his rig was closer to that of a horse.
Gail T has been much closer to the real Peak Oil story than many other folks in that camp.
The collapse is here. It may be a little off script, but it is making an entrance stage right.
Post by: John of Wallan on May 17, 2021, 01:20:45 am
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MawR-tA61dM
Followed by this;
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y75h8_QyOlg
JOW
Post by: John of Wallan on May 17, 2021, 12:32:26 am
Tar sands are plentiful but deliver very low energy yield. Like burning peat or shitty brown coal (Like we do) instead of black coal or natural gas....
Watch this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VOMWzjrRiBg
Best short and entertaining documentary I have seen which sums it all up nicely.
JOW
Post by: Phil Potts on May 16, 2021, 05:15:42 pm
Post by: K-Dog on May 16, 2021, 02:06:40 pm
Quote
we are all here, still waiting
Some of us with hardly a pot to **** in. In those 13 years there have been two severe economic downturns. Go back a few more years and there have been three crashes. Those who those economic clusterfucks killed are not here to disagree with you. Therefore you are right.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.pinimg.com%2F474x%2F25%2Feb%2F7f%2F25eb7f5967fc95c272434d49b661cdb9.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
What remains is concentrated in fewer hands. Not to be confused with:
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fpng-3.findicons.com%2Ffiles%2Ficons%2F1200%2Findiana_jones_and_the_last_crusade%2F256%2Ffalse_grail.png&f=1&nofb=1)
GROWTH
GROWTH
Post by: John of Wallan on May 16, 2021, 11:29:05 am
Gail doesn't do a particularly good job, in terms of consistency, when it comes to energy topics. From her 2008 peak oil call to claiming that high prices cause doom, and then low prices cause doom, and then any prices cause doom, it just doesn't hang together when taken in context of what she has been saying for quite some time now.
She appears to be a weather vane, with all wind directions blowing towards an energy collapse of some sort. Demand collapse, supply collapse, price increase collapse, price decrease collapse, the only outcome can be a collapse, and she began calling it 13 years ago and we are all here, still waiting. A weather vane. Price high? The wind is blowing to collapse. Pipeline down? Wind is blowing to collapse.
Its simple really:
All the easy to get oil is gone. Thats why we have deep water drilling and tar sands, fracking, shale oil etc...
Low oil prices send oil companies broke. See whats happening with all the fracking miracle companies... Only thing that has allowed them to last this long is crazy low interest rates giving almost free money to sink into it. Its a blip on the way down the peak oil bell curve.
High oil prices send economies into recession.
We have no substitute for oil. We have some small scale alternatives which will allow us to survive at a much lower energy consumption level, and most probably lower population.
JOW
Post by: John of Wallan on May 15, 2021, 11:35:52 pm
Quiote good articles on this site.
JOW
Link:
https://ourfiniteworld.com/
Text:
How the World’s Energy Problem Has Been Hidden
Posted on May 4, 2021 by Gail Tverberg
We live in a world where words are very carefully chosen. Companies hire public relations firms to give just the right “spin” to what they are saying. Politicians make statements which suggest that everything is going well. Newspapers would like their advertisers to be happy; they certainly won’t suggest that the automobile you purchase today may be of no use to you in five years.
I believe that what has happened in recent years is that the “truth” has become very dark. We live in a finite world; we are rapidly approaching limits of many kinds. For example, there is not enough fresh water for everyone, including agriculture and businesses. This inadequate water supply is now tipping over into inadequate food supply in quite a few places because irrigation requires fresh water. This problem is, in a sense, an energy problem, because adding more irrigation requires more energy supplies used for digging deeper wells or making desalination plants. We are reaching energy scarcity issues not too different from those of World War I, World War II and the Depression Era between the wars.
We now live in a strange world filled with half-truths, not too different from the world of the 1930s. US newspapers leave out the many stories that could be written about rising food insecurity around the world, and even in the US. We see more reports of conflicts among countries and increasing gaps between the rich and the poor, but no one explains that such changes are to be expected when energy consumption per capita starts falling too low.
The majority of people seem to believe that all of these problems can be fixed simply by increasingly taxing the rich and using the proceeds to help the poor. They also believe that the biggest problem we are facing is climate change. Very few are even aware of the food scarcity problems occurring in many parts of the world already.
Our political leaders started down the wrong path long ago, when they chose to rely on economists rather than physicists. The economists created the fiction that the economy could expand endlessly, even with falling energy supplies. The physicists understood that the economy requires energy for growth, but didn’t really understand the financial system, so they weren’t in a position to explain which parts of economic theory were incorrect. Even as the true story becomes increasingly clear, politicians stick to their belief that our only energy problem is the possibility of using too much fossil fuel, with the result of rising world temperatures and disrupted weather patterns. This can be interpreted as a relatively distant problem that can be corrected over a fairly long future period.
In this post, I will explain why it appears to me that, right now, we are dealing with an energy problem as severe as that which seems to have led to World War I, World War II, and the Great Depression. We really need a solution to our energy problems right now, not in the year 2050 or 2100. Scientists modeled the wrong problem: a fairly distant energy problem which would be associated with high energy prices. The real issue is a very close-at-hand energy shortage problem, associated with relatively low energy prices. It should not be surprising that the solutions scientists have found are mostly absurd, given the true nature of the problem we are facing.
[1] There is a great deal of confusion with respect to which energy problem we are dealing with. Are we dealing with a near-at-hand problem featuring inadequate prices for producers or a more distant problem featuring high prices for consumers? It makes a huge difference in finding a solution, if any.
Business leaders would like us to believe that the problem to be concerned with is a fairly distant one: climate change. In fact, this is the problem most scientists are working on. There is a common misbelief that fossil fuel prices will jump to high levels if they are in short supply. These high prices will allow the extraction of a huge amount of coal, oil and natural gas from the ground. The rising prices will also allow high-priced alternatives to become competitive. Thus, it makes sense to start down the long road of trying to substitute “renewables” for fossil fuels.
If business leaders had stopped to look at the history of coal depletion, they would have discovered that expecting high prices when energy limits are encountered is incorrect. The issue that really happens is a wage problem: too many workers discover that their wages are too low. Indirectly, these low-wage workers need to cut back on purchases of goods of many types, including coal to heat workers’ homes. This loss of purchasing power tends to hold coal prices down to a level that is too low for producers. We can see this situation if we look at the historical problems with coal depletion in the UK and in Germany.
Coal played an outsized role in the time leading up to, and including, World War II.
Figure 1. Figure by author describing peak coal timing.
History shows that as early coal mines became depleted, the number of hours of labor required to extract a given amount of coal tended to rise significantly. This happened because deeper mines were needed, or mines were needed in areas where there were only thin coal seams. The problem owners of mines experienced was that coal prices did not rise enough to cover their higher labor costs, related to depletion. The issue was really that prices fell too low for coal producers.
Owners of mines found that they needed to cut the wages of miners. This led to strikes and lower coal production. Indirectly, other coal-using industries, such as iron production and bread baking, were adversely affected, leading these industries to cut jobs and wages, as well. In a sense, the big issue was growing wage disparity, because many higher-wage workers and property owners were not affected.
Today, the issue we see is very similar, especially when we look at wages worldwide, because markets are now worldwide. Many workers around the world have very low wages, or no wages at all. As a result, the number of workers worldwide who can afford to purchase goods that require large amounts of oil and coal products for their manufacture and operation, such as vehicles, tends to fall. For example, peak sales of private passenger automobile, worldwide, occurred in 2017. With fewer auto sales (as well as fewer sales of other high-priced goods), it is difficult to keep oil and coal prices high enough for producers. This is very similar to the problems of the 1914 to 1945 era.
Everything that I can see indicates that we are now reaching a time that is parallel to the period between 1914 and 1945. Conflict is one of the major things that a person would expect because each country wants to protect its jobs. Each country also wants to add new jobs that pay well.
In a period parallel to the 1914 to 1945 period, we can also expect pandemics. This happens because the many poor people often cannot afford adequate diets, making them more susceptible to diseases that are easily transmitted. In the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918-1919, more than 50 million people worldwide died. The equivalent number with today’s world population would be about 260 million. This hugely dwarfs the 3.2 million COVID-19 deaths around the world that we have experienced to date.
[2] If we look at growth in energy supply, relative to the growth in population, precisely the same type of “squeeze” is occurring now as was occurring in the 1914 to 1945 period. This squeeze particularly affects coal and oil supplies.
Figure 2. The sum of red and blue areas on the chart represent average annual world energy consumption growth by 10-year periods. Blue areas represent average annual population growth percentages during these 10-year periods. The red area is determined by subtraction. It represents the amount of energy consumption growth that is “left over” for growth in people’s standards of living. Chart by Gail Tverberg using energy data from Vaclav Smil’s estimates shown in Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects, together with BP Statistical Data for 1965 and subsequent years.
The chart above is somewhat complex. It looks at how quickly energy consumption has been growing historically, over ten-year periods (sum of red and blue areas). This amount is divided into two parts. The blue area shows how much of this growth in energy consumption was required to provide food, housing and transportation to the growing world population, based on the standards at that time. The red area shows how much growth in energy consumption was “left over” for growth in the standard of living, such as better roads, more vehicles, and nicer homes. Note that GDP growth is not shown in the chart. It likely corresponds fairly closely to total energy consumption growth.
Figure 3, below, shows energy consumption by type of fuel between 1820 and 2010. From this, it is clear that the world’s energy consumption was tiny back in 1820, when most of the world’s energy came from burned biomass. Even at that time, there was a huge problem with deforestation.
Figure 3. World Energy Consumption by Source, based on Vaclav Smil estimates from Energy Transitions: History, Requirements and Prospects and together with BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy data for 1965 and subsequent years. (Wind and solar are included with biofuels.)
Clearly, the addition of coal, starting shortly after 1820, allowed huge changes in the world economy. But by 1910, this growth in coal consumption was flattening out, leading quite possibly to the problems of the 1914-1945 era. The growth in oil consumption after World War II allowed the world economy to recover. Natural gas, hydroelectric and nuclear have been added in recent years, as well, but the amounts have been less significant than those of coal and oil.
We can see how coal and oil have dominated growth in energy supplies in other ways, as well. This is a chart of energy supplies, with a projection of expected energy supplies through 2021 based on estimates of the IEA’s Global Energy Review 2021.
Figure 4. World energy consumption by fuel. Data through 2019 based on information from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2020. Amounts for 2020 and 2021 based on percentage change estimates from IEA’s Global Energy Review 2021.
Oil supplies became a problem in the 1970s. There was briefly a dip in the demand for oil supplies as the world switched from burning oil to the use of other fuels in applications where this could easily be done, such as producing electricity and heating homes. Also, private passenger automobiles became smaller and more fuel efficient. There has been a continued push for fuel efficiency since then. In 2020, oil consumption was greatly affected by the reduction in personal travel associated with the COVID-19 epidemic.
Figure 4, above, shows that world coal consumption has been close to flat since about 2012. This is also evident in Figure 5, below.
Figure 5. World coal production by part of the world, based on data of BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, 2020.
Figure 5 shows that coal production for the United States and Europe has been declining for a very long time, since about 1988. Before China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001, its coal production grew at a moderate pace. After joining the WTO in 2001, China’s coal production grew very rapidly for about 10 years. In about 2011, China’s coal production leveled off, leading to the leveling of world coal production.
Figure 6 shows that recently, growth in the sum of oil and coal consumption has been lagging total energy consumption.
Figure 6. Three-year average annual increase in oil and coal consumption versus three-year average increase in total energy consumption, based on a combination of BP data through 2019 from BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy, 2010 and IEA’s 2020 and 2021 percentage change forecasts, from its Global Energy Review 2021.
We can see from Figure 6 that the only recent time when oil and coal supplies grew faster than energy consumption in total was during a brief period between 2002 and 2007. More recently, oil and coal consumption has been increasingly lagging total energy consumption. For both coal and oil, the problem has been that low prices for producers cause producers to voluntarily drop out of coal or oil production. The reason for this is two-fold: (1) With less oil (or coal) production, perhaps prices might rise, making production more profitable, and (2) Unprofitable oil (or coal) production isn’t really satisfactory for producers.
When determining the required level of profitability for these fuels, there is a need to include the tax revenue that governments require in order to maintain adequate services. This is especially the case with oil exporters, but it is also true in general. Energy products, to be useful, produce an energy surplus that can be used to benefit the rest of the economy. The way that this energy surplus can be transferred to the rest of the economy is by paying relatively high taxes. These taxes allow changes that aid economic growth, such as improvements in roads and schools.
If energy prices are chronically too low (so that an energy product requires a subsidy, rather than paying taxes), this is a sign that the energy product is most likely an energy “sink.” Such a product acts in the direction of pulling the economy down through ever-lower productivity.
[3] Governments have chosen to focus on preventing climate change because, in theory, the changes that are needed to prevent climate change seem to be the same ones needed to cover the contingency of “running out.” The catch is that the indicated changes don’t really work in the scarcity situation we are already facing.
It turns out that the very fuels that we seem to be running out of (coal and oil) are the very ones most associated with high carbon dioxide emissions. Thus, focusing on climate change seems to please everyone. Those who were concerned that we could keep extracting fossil fuels for hundreds of years and, because of this, completely ruin the climate, would be happy. Those who were concerned about running out of fossil fuels would be happy, as well. This is precisely the kind of solution that politicians prefer.
The catch is that we used coal and oil first because, in a very real sense, they are the “best” fuels for our needs. All of the other fuels, even natural gas, are in many senses inferior. Natural gas has the problem that it is very expensive to transport and store. Also, methane, which makes up the majority of natural gas, is itself a gas that contributes to global warming. It tends to leak from pipelines and from ships attempting to transport it. Thus, it is doubtful that it is much better from a global warming perspective than coal or oil.
So-called renewable fuels tend to be very damaging to the environment in ways other than CO2 emissions. This point is made very well in the new book Bright Green Lies by Derrick Jensen, Lierre Keith and Max Wilbert. It makes the point that renewable fuels are not an attempt to save the environment. Instead, they are trying to save our current industrial civilization using approaches that tend to destroy the environment. Cutting down forests, even if new trees are planted in their place, is especially detrimental. Alice Friedemann, in her new book, Life after Fossil Fuels: A Reality Check on Alternative Fuels, points out the high cost of these alternatives and their dependence on fossil fuel energy.
We are right now in a huge scarcity situation which is starting to cause conflicts of many kinds. Even if there were a way of producing these types of alternative energy cheaply enough, they are coming far too late and in far too small quantities to make a difference. They also don’t match up with our current coal and oil uses, adding a layer of time and expense for conversion that needs to be included in any model.
[4] What we really have is a huge conflict problem due to inadequate energy supplies for today’s world population. The powers that be are trying to hide this problem by publishing only their preferred version of the truth.
The situation that we are really facing is one that often goes under the name of “collapse.” It is a problem that many civilizations have faced in the past when a given population has outgrown its resource base.
Needless to say, the issue of collapse is not a story any politician wants to tell its citizens. Instead, we are told over and over, “Everything is fine. Any energy problem will be handled by the solutions scientists are finding.” The catch is that scientists were not told the correct problem to solve. They were told about a distant problem. To make the problem easier to solve, high prices and subsidies seemed to be acceptable. The problem they were asked to solve is very different from our real energy problem today.
Many people think that taxing the rich and giving the proceeds to the poor can solve our problem, but this doesn’t really solve the problem for a couple of reasons. One of the issues is that our scarcity issue is really a worldwide problem. Higher taxation of the rich in a few rich countries does nothing for the many problems of poor people in countries such as Lebanon, Yemen, Venezuela and India. Furthermore, taking money from the rich doesn’t really fix scarcity problems. Rich people don’t really eat a vastly disproportionate amount of food or drink more water, for example.
A detail that most of us don’t think about is that the military of many different countries has been very much aware of the potential conflict situation that is now occurring. They are aware that a “hot war” would require huge use of fossil fuel energy, so they have been trying to find alternative approaches. One approach military groups have been working on is the use of bioweapons of various kinds. In fact, some groups might even contemplate starting a pandemic. Another approach that might be used is computer viruses to disrupt the systems of other countries.
Needless to say, the powers that be do not want the general population to hear about issues of these kinds. We find ourselves with narrower and narrower news reports that provide only the version of the truth that politicians and news media want us to read. Citizens who have developed the view, “All I need to do to find out the truth is read my home town newspaper,” are likely to encounter more and more surprises, as conflict situations escalate.
Post by: K-Dog on May 14, 2021, 02:04:09 am
What ?
This forum sensors my posts?
****
****
Bastard
There goes half my vocabulary.
Pricks!
JOW
I know it sucks.
Post by: Phil Potts on May 14, 2021, 02:02:12 am
Post by: John of Wallan on May 13, 2021, 02:45:14 pm
I wonder in Fuckknuckleistan gets through.
JOW
Post by: John of Wallan on May 13, 2021, 02:43:29 pm
https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/That article tells me Canada better figure out what to do with millions of Americans at the gate...
Interesting article on expected climate refugees in North America.....
JOW
I used to work with Merna from Mexico city. During your fat bastard Emperors reign I used to tell her that in a few years Mexico will be putting up their own wall to keep out the Merikans trying to flee.
We are an island a long way from **** anywhere here in Shitsville, and we will be overrun with climate refugees, let alone places with a land bridge to equatorial areas.
JOW
Post by: Nearings fault on May 13, 2021, 02:32:45 pm
https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/That article tells me Canada better figure out what to do with millions of Americans at the gate...
Interesting article on expected climate refugees in North America.....
JOW
Post by: Nearings fault on May 13, 2021, 02:29:47 pm
What ?Let's try:
This forum sensors my posts?
****
****
Bastard
There goes half my vocabulary.
Pricks!
JOW
Ostie, tabarnac, kalisse...
Ok I'm covered, for those not french canadian that is
Holly host, tabernacle, and chalice.
My ancestors very very religious...
Post by: Cam on May 13, 2021, 02:15:33 pm
I dont actually get too hung up on dates. I can see the storm cloads coming, I dont need a soothsayer.
Preparing for the worst is actually better all around;
I am now totally out of debt, and have lived a frugal but healthy lifestyle for at least 15 years with less stress than most around me.
I have a stocked pantry so when ****-knuckles buy all the loo paper and white rice I have something to eat and dont have to rub my arse on the front lawn....
I have a shed full of tools and fix things myself. (Saves a heap of money and you actually learn something!)
I have a small generator, so when we have blackouts and brownouts I can keep the fridge cold or the water pump going.
I have a garden which produces a small amount of excellent produce and is enjoyable to look after, and helps keep us healthy body and mind.
I have planted a **** load of trees and its made my homestead the most beautiful and serene in the neighbourhood. The birds love them!
Any minor setback, from a flat battery to leaking pipe or a blown head gasket on my old 4WD we just handle without a fuss or angst over how much it will cost. We just fix it.
Predictions are always best guesses. Right now things are a little crazy, not just from climate change, which I see as the big daddy of the issues which is relentlessly moving closer while we deal with all the other short term calamities, many amplified by climate change.... You find if you plan for one disruption, such as climate change and associated fires, droughts etc. it also makes you resiliant in the face of other calamities, such as the covid lockdowns we have just been through which resulted in my sons moving back in temporarily. really did not cause a ripple in the homestead. Just went with the flow. Only noticeable difference is we kept running out of icecream...
In reality anyone can take steps to prepare for disruptions. It can be as simple as getting out of debt to allow flexibility of long term plans, or as I tell my oldest son, keep your petrol tank topped off so you can head for the hills at the first sign of trouble in an urban area. Learning a skill and trying to rely less on others is a start. I am amazed at how many peopl dont check the oil level intheir cars... They just drive it between oil changes, which of course they pay others to do...
JOW
This is how I see things as well. It's a fulfilling way to live.
What ?
This forum sensors my posts?
****
****
Bastard
There goes half my vocabulary.
Pricks!
JOW
**** this ****. Whoa it really does. I thought you were self-censoring when I first read it, lol.
Post by: John of Wallan on May 13, 2021, 11:41:46 am
This forum sensors my posts?
****
****
Bastard
There goes half my vocabulary.
Pricks!
JOW
Post by: John of Wallan on May 13, 2021, 11:40:06 am
I think preparing for the worst is a good strategy, if one can do it. Part of that preparation is the knowledge that we don't know precisely when the worst is going to show up or from what direction it will approach.
Unfortunately, it is difficult to generate a solid reaction, or even attract attention, if the claim or mechanism of doom must be matched with "but maybe it'll happen after we're all dead and gone". That would deflate Guy's gig pretty quickly, as just one example.
I dont actually get too hung up on dates. I can see the storm cloads coming, I dont need a soothsayer.
Preparing for the worst is actually better all around;
I am now totally out of debt, and have lived a frugal but healthy lifestyle for at least 15 years with less stress than most around me.
I have a stocked pantry so when ****-knuckles buy all the loo paper and white rice I have something to eat and dont have to rub my arse on the front lawn....
I have a shed full of tools and fix things myself. (Saves a heap of money and you actually learn something!)
I have a small generator, so when we have blackouts and brownouts I can keep the fridge cold or the water pump going.
I have a garden which produces a small amount of excellent produce and is enjoyable to look after, and helps keep us healthy body and mind.
I have planted a **** load of trees and its made my homestead the most beautiful and serene in the neighbourhood. The birds love them!
Any minor setback, from a flat battery to leaking pipe or a blown head gasket on my old 4WD we just handle without a fuss or angst over how much it will cost. We just fix it.
Predictions are always best guesses. Right now things are a little crazy, not just from climate change, which I see as the big daddy of the issues which is relentlessly moving closer while we deal with all the other short term calamities, many amplified by climate change.... You find if you plan for one disruption, such as climate change and associated fires, droughts etc. it also makes you resiliant in the face of other calamities, such as the covid lockdowns we have just been through which resulted in my sons moving back in temporarily. really did not cause a ripple in the homestead. Just went with the flow. Only noticeable difference is we kept running out of icecream...
In reality anyone can take steps to prepare for disruptions. It can be as simple as getting out of debt to allow flexibility of long term plans, or as I tell my oldest son, keep your petrol tank topped off so you can head for the hills at the first sign of trouble in an urban area. Learning a skill and trying to rely less on others is a start. I am amazed at how many peopl dont check the oil level intheir cars... They just drive it between oil changes, which of course they pay others to do...
JOW
Post by: Digwe Must on May 13, 2021, 06:13:53 am
Guy M is a distraction. As you show, there are many other people doing the work now. He shouldn't be a focus.
Thankfully, as others pointed out, the most extreme predictions have not come to pass...so far. I haven't seen a model yet that holds up without tweaking.
You mentioned the sunspot cycle and the magnetic field. The field is so weak a relatively minor CME caused quite a fuss yesterday.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90EeTN2eXks&t=0s
I think preparing for the worst is a good strategy, if one can do it. Part of that preparation is the knowledge that we don't know precisely when the worst is going to show up or from what direction it will approach.
Post by: John of Wallan on May 12, 2021, 03:31:54 pm
They are definately alarmist. They alarm me. Would be relly good if they are wrong.
We are experiencing heat waves and continental size wildfires in summer, followed by record rainfall events in winter down here in Oz. All the information I am reading show these events are far outside normal distributions; ie 5 or 6 sigma events.
I am planning for the worst, (Alarmist predictions), and hoping for something better... Reality on the ground is already alarming enough.
You can argue that the person supplying the information is a monster all you like. You may even be correct. Character assassination does not automatically mean they are factually incorrect. I see it so much in our society; want to discredit some ones ideas, you first assassinate their character. Dirty politics.
2 conclusions I have come to:
1. Ice free arctic spells huge problems for the whole planet, not just humans and our modern Western way of life. We are going to experience it very soon by all accounts.
2. Governments and a great deal of society have their head in the sand, and will deny there is a problem, let alone the need to change until the end.
JOW
Link:
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/
Text:
THURSDAY, MARCH 18, 2021
Overshoot or Omnicide?
Questions and Answers with Sam Carana
Above image shows a non-linear blue trend based on 1880-2020 NASA Land+Ocean data that are adjusted 0.78°C to reflect a pre-industrial base, to more fully reflect strong polar warming, and to reflect surface air temperatures over oceans. This blue trend highlights that the 1.5°C threshold was crossed in 2012 (inset), while the 2°C threshold looks set to be crossed next year and a 3°C rise could be reached at the end of 2026.
Overshoot?
The blue trend in the image at the top shows the temperature rise crossing 1.5°C in 2012. Could this have been a temporary overshoot? Could the trend be wrong and could temperatures come down in future, instead of continuing to rise, and could temperatures fall to such extent that this will bring the average temperature rise back to below 1.5°C?
To answer this question, let's apply the method followed by the IPCC and estimate the average temperature rise over a 30-year period that is centered around the start of 2012, i.e. from 1997 to the end of 2026. The IPPC used a 30-year period in its Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 ºC, while assuming that, for future years, the current multi-decadal warming trend would continue (see image below).
As said, the image at the top shows the temperature rise crossing 1.5°C in 2012. For the average temperature over the 30-year period 1997-2026 to be below 1.5°C, temperatures would have to fall over the next few years. Even if the temperature for 2021 fell to a level as low as it was in 2018 and remained at that same lower level until end 2026, the 1997-2026 average would still be more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial. Furthermore, for temperatures to fall over the next few years, there would need to be a fall in concentrations of greenhouse gases over the next few years, among other things. Instead, greenhouse gas levels appear to be rising steadily, if not at accelerating pace.
What did the IPCC envisage? As the image below shows, the IPCC in AR5 did envisage carbon dioxide under RCP 2.6 to be 421 ppm in 2100, while the combined CO₂e for carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide would be 475 ppm in 2100.
The image below, based on a study by Detlef van Vuuren et al. (2011), pictures pathways for concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide, for each of four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
Above image shows that, for RCP 2.6 to apply in the above study, there is little or no room for a rise in these greenhouse gases. In fact, the study shows that methane levels would have to be falling dramatically. At the moment, however, methane concentrations show no signs of falling and instead appear to be following if not exceeding RCP 8.5, as discussed in a recent post and as also illustrated by the images below.
Greenhouse gas levels are rising
As the image below shows, the carbon dioxide (CO₂) level recorded at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, was 421.36 parts per million (ppm) on April 8, 2021.
The N20 satellite recorded a methane peak of 2862 ppb on the afterrnoon of March 29, 2021, at 487.2 mb, as the image below shows.
A similarly high methane peak was recorded by the MetOp-1 satellite at 469 mb on the morning of April 4, 2021.
Below are the highest daily mean methane levels recorded by the MetOp-1 satellite at selected altitudes on March 10 or 12, for the years 2013-2021, showing that methane levels are rising, especially at the higher altitude associated with 293 mb.
Similarly, nitrous oxide levels show no signs of falling, as illustrated by the image below.
Methane grew 15.85 ppb in 2020, how fast could CO₂e rise?
Rising greenhouse gas levels and associated feedbacks threaten to cause temperatures to keep rising, in a runaway scenario that cannot be reverted even if emissions by people were cut to zero.
Peaks in greenhouse gas levels could suffice to trigger the clouds feedback, which occurs when a CO₂e threshold of around 1,200 ppm is crossed, and the stratocumulus decks abruptly become unstable and break up into scattered cumulus clouds.
Once the clouds tipping point is crossed, it will be impossible to undo its impact, in line with the nature of a tipping point. In theory, CO₂ levels could come down after the stratocumulus breakup, but the stratocumulus decks would only reform once the CO₂ levels drop below 300 ppm.
A recent post repeated the warning that by 2026, there could be an 18°C rise when including the clouds feedback, while humans will likely go extinct with a 3°C rise and most life on Earth will disappear with a 5°C rise. In conclusion, once the clouds feedback gets triggered, it cannot be reverted by people, because by the time the clouds feedback starts kicking in, people would already have disappeared, so there won't be any people around to keep trying to revert it.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
Methane levels are rising rapidly. The image to the right shows a trend that is based on NOAA 2006-2020 annual gobal mean methane data and that points at a mean of 3893 ppb getting crossed by the end of 2026.
Why is that value of 3893 ppb important? On April 8, 2021, carbon dioxide reached a peak of 421.36 ppm, i.e. 778.64 ppm away from the clouds tipping point at 1200 ppm, and 778.64 ppm CO₂e translates into 3893 ppb of methane at a 1-year GWP of 200.
In other words, a methane mean of 3893 ppb alone could cause the clouds tipping point to get crossed, resulting in an abrupt 8°C temperature rise.
Such a high mean by 2026 cannot be ruled out, given the rapid recent growth in mean annual methane levels (15.85 ppb in 2020, see inset on image).
Additionally, there are further warming elements than just carbon dioxide and methane, e.g. nitrous oxide and water vapor haven't yet been included in the CO₂e total.
Moreover, it may not even be necessary for the global mean methane level to reach 3893 ppb. A high methane peak in one single spot may suffice and a peak of 3893 ppb of methane could be reached soon, given that methane just reached a peak of 2862 ppb, while even higher peaks were reached over the past few years, including a peak of 3369 ppb recorded on the afternoon of August 31, 2018.
Abrupt stratocumulus cloud shattering
[ click on images to enlarge ]
Catastrophic crack propagation is what makes a balloon pop. Could low-lying clouds similarly break up and vanish abruptly?
Could peak greenhouse gas concentrations in one spot break up droplets into water vapor, thus raising CO₂e and propagating break-up of more droplets, etc., to shatter entire clouds?
In other words, an extra burst of methane from the seafoor of the Arctic Ocean alone could suffice to trigger the clouds tipping point and abruptly push temperatures up by an additional 8°C.
Omnicide?
This brings the IPCC views and suggestions into question. As discussed above, for the average temperature to come down to below 1.5°C over the period 1997-2026, temperatures would need to fall over the next few years. What again would it take for temperatures to fall over the next few years?
Imagine that all emissions of greenhouse gases by people would end. Even if all emissions of greenhouse gases by people could magically end right now, there would still be little or no prospect for temperatures to fall over the next few years. Reasons for this are listed below, and it is not an exhaustive list since some things are hard to assess, such as whether oceans will be able to keep absorbing as much heat and carbon dioxide as they currently do.
By implication, there is no carbon budget left. Suggesting that there was a carbon budget left, to be divided among polluters and to be consumed over the next few years, that suggestion is irresponsible. Below are some reasons why the temperature is likely to rise over the next few years, rather than fall.
How likely is a rise of more than 3°C by 2026?
• The warming impact of carbon dioxide reaches its peak a decade after emission, while methane's impact over ten years is huge, so the warming impact of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere is likely to prevent temperatures from falling and could instead keep raising temperatures for some time to come.
• Temperatures are currently suppressed. We're in a La Niña period, as illustrated by the image below.
[ click on images to enlarge ]
As NASA describes, El Niño events occur roughly every two to seven years. As temperatures keep rising, ever more frequent strong El Niño events are likely to occur. NOAA anticipates La Niña to re-emerge during the fall or winter 2021/2022, so it's likely that a strong El Niño will occur between 2023 and 2025.
• Rising temperatures can cause growth in sources of greenhouse gases and a decrease in sinks. The image below shows how El Niño/La Niña events and growth in CO₂ levels line up.
• We're also at a low point in the sunspot cycle. As the image on the right shows, the number of sunspots can be expected to rise as we head toward 2026, and temperatures can be expected to rise accordingly. According to James Hansen et al., the variation of solar irradiance from solar minimum to solar maximum is of the order of 0.25 W/m⁻².
• Add to this the impact of a recent Sudden Stratospheric Warming event. We are currently experiencing the combined impact of three short-term variables that are suppressing the temperature rise, i.e. a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event, a La Niña event and a low in sunspots.
Over the next few years, in the absence of large volcano eruptions and in the absence of Sudden Stratospheric Warming events, a huge amount of heat could build up at surface level. As the temperature impact of the other two short-term variables reverses, i.e. as the sunspot cycle moves toward a peak and a El Niño develops, this could push up temperatures substantially. The world could be set up for a perfect storm by 2026, since sunspots are expected to reach a peak by then and since it takes a few years to move from a La Niña low to the peak of an El Niño period.
• Furthermore, temperatures are currently also suppressed by sulfate cooling. This impact is falling away as we progress with the necessary transition away from fossil fuel and biofuel, toward the use of more wind turbines and solar panels instead. Aerosols typically fall out of the atmosphere within a few weeks, so as the transition progresses, this will cause temperatures to rise over the next few years. Most sulfates are caused by large-scale industrial activity, such as coal-fired power plants and smelters. A significant part of sulphur emissions is also caused by volcanoes. Historically, some 20 volcanoes are actively erupting on any particular day. Of the 49 volcanoes that erupted during 2021, 45 volcanoes were still active with continuing (for at least 3 months) eruptions as at March 12, 2021.
• Also holding back the temperature rise at the moment is the buffer effect of thick sea ice in the Arctic that consumes heat as it melts. As Arctic sea ice thickness declines, more heat will instead warm up the Arctic, resulting in albedo changes, changes to the Jet Stream and possibly trigger huge releases of methane from the seafloor. The rise in ocean temperature on the Northern Hemisphere looks very threatening in this regard (see image on the right) and many of these developments are discussed at the extinction page. There are numerous further feedbacks that look set to start kicking in with growing ferocity as temperatures keep rising, such as releases of greenhouse gases resulting from permafrost thawing and the decline of the snow and ice cover. Some 30 feedbacks affecting the Arctic are discussed at the feedbacks page.
• The conclusion of study after study is that the situation is worse than expected and will get even worse as warming continues. Some examples: a recent study found that the Amazon rainforest is no longer a sink, but has become a source, contributing to warming the planet instead; another study found that soil bacteria release CO₂ that was previously thought to remain trapped by iron; another study found that forest soil carbon does not increase with higher CO₂ levels; another study found that forests' long-term capacity to store carbon is dropping in regions with extreme annual fires; a recent post discussed a study finding that at higher temperatures, respiration rates continue to rise in contrast to sharply declining rates of photosynthesis, which under business-as-usual emissions would nearly halve the land sink strength by as early as 2040; the post also mentions a study on oceans that finds that, with increased stratification, heat from climate warming less effectively penetrates into the deep ocean, which contributes to further surface warming, while it also reduces the capability of the ocean to store carbon, exacerbating global surface warming; finally, a recent study found that kelp off the Californian coast has collapsed. So, both land and ocean sinks look set to decrease as temperatures keep rising, while a 2020 study points out that the ocean sink will also immediately slow down as future fossil fuel emission cuts drive reduced growth of atmospheric CO₂.
Where do we go from here?
[ image from earlier post ]
The same blue trend that's in the image at the top also shows up in the image on the right, from an earlier post, together with a purple trend and a red trend that picture even worse scenarios than the blue trend.
The purple trend is based on 15 recent years (2006-2020), so it can cover a 30-year period (2006-2035) that is centered around end December 2020. As the image shows, the purple trend points at a rise of 10°C by 2026, leaving little or no scope for the current acceleration to slow, let alone for the anomaly to return to below 2°C.
The red trend is based on a dozen recent years (2009-2020) and shows that the 2°C threshold could already have been crossed in 2020, while pointing at a rise of 18°C by 2025.
In conclusion, temperatures could rise by more than 3°C by the end of 2026, as indicated by the blue trend in the image at the top. At that point, humans will likely go extinct, making it in many respects rather futile to speculate about what will happen beyond 2026. On the other hand, the right thing to do is to help avoid the worst things from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.
Post by: John of Wallan on May 12, 2021, 12:24:20 am
Interesting article on expected climate refugees in North America.....
JOW
Post by: John of Wallan on May 11, 2021, 07:41:43 pm
Regardless of him being smeared or if he is a real bad boy, I found this brilliant description of Guy on Reddit.QuoteGuy absolutely can't stand anyone who disagrees with him. You must have 100% faith that he is the Word of God on the subject of climate change. His following already is a cult, just they are not all together in one location like Jonestown or Waco.
His narrative has numerous negative aspects to it. First off it encourages inaction even if he says it doesn't. Second it's outrageously depressing without enough evidence for the conclusions. Full on extinction by 2030? That's 14 years to all dead people! It's ludicrous. Then because of both of those things, he undermines folks who are making more realistic assessments of the timelines involved here.
The more often he is exposed as a charlatan, the better.
I could not have said it better myself. I emphasized the bold.
Some guy named Reverse Engineer posted this 4 years ago.
Ten years to go.
Yes, last time I mentioned Guy M. RE was less than flattering... Could not understand 100% why. SOme people just rub each other up the wrong way. I know plenty I would like to see 6 foot under...
I listen to the message and check the references. The numbers actually seem to add up unfortunately. I absolutely hope he is wrong. I really dont want to die any time soon, but I think we are heading into a shitstorm in the next 10 years for a number of reasons already mentioned, and I would suggest his timeframe is a lot closer to reality than the crap being thrown around by denialists... 2100 seems to be the timeframe of choice in the mainstream media to allow business as usual until all current generations are dead and no longer can be held to account.
I also disagree with the assertion he is telling everyone to give up. I think it is just an excuse people use to allow inaction. His message has actually spurred me on to action, not the opposite.
I really have no idea if the man is a monster or is being defamed as he claims.... There seems to be a lot of dirty laundry and mud being slung about. If criminal activity is involved police should be called, and charges laid. In the internet age it seems to be easy to destroy reputations.
Anyway, its got very little to do with the notion I think we are falling off the cliff, and soon. Based on the response I am sorry I mentioned him. Its a big distraction from rational debate and reviewing the science.
RE can be wrong. I doubt he likes people disagreeing with him either....
JOW
Post by: K-Dog on May 11, 2021, 05:47:31 pm
Quote
Guy absolutely can't stand anyone who disagrees with him. You must have 100% faith that he is the Word of God on the subject of climate change. His following already is a cult, just they are not all together in one location like Jonestown or Waco.
His narrative has numerous negative aspects to it. First off it encourages inaction even if he says it doesn't. Second it's outrageously depressing without enough evidence for the conclusions. Full on extinction by 2030? That's 14 years to all dead people! It's ludicrous. Then because of both of those things, he undermines folks who are making more realistic assessments of the timelines involved here.
The more often he is exposed as a charlatan, the better.
I could not have said it better myself. I emphasized the bold.
Some guy named Reverse Engineer posted this 4 years ago.
Ten years to go.
Post by: Eddie on May 11, 2021, 04:19:38 pm
So some woman/women baited him into a conversation where he revealed through his language his thinking on the topic of male/female relationships? And that is the woman's fault? Or his language related to gender relationships is quite common in your experience with other men?
My view is that she probably did more than just bait him into a conversation. I don’t have any real knowledge about what happened, but it looks to me like she lured him into a sexting scandal trap that she then sprung on him, costing him a lot of credibility and maybe some of his livelihood.
Any hints, evidence, reference or claim of this anywhere? Or is this more a suspicion?Quote from: Eddie"In my experience most men will say just about anything that a woman professes to want him to say, if the woman is remotely attractive and the pay-off is sex. He thought he was playing a sex game, but she was playing a power game. imho.
And I have no familiarity with men acting this way, regardless of circumstance. Perhaps a side effect of having been happily married for a long time, but the whole thing is still alien to me.
No, it is merely suspicion.
Unless you count that it worked to completely ruin his reputation among the people who seem to have trusted him.....meaning that if it was a trap, it worked rather well. And that it fits perfectly into what I'd call the typical #metoo modus operandi.
Happily married is such a blessing. But...you might be surprised at what turns some women on...and what some women might do out of sheer spite. Hell hath no fury, etc.
I'm married forty years in July myself.
Just reading those texts made me embarrassed for Guy. You'd think a PhD could write better ****. It was strictly amateur stuff. Not much imagination if you ask me.
Post by: Digwe Must on May 11, 2021, 03:32:18 pm
I am not at all dismissive of Ice Age Farmer. His stats are real. The industry and academic papers are real. Sometimes his interpretation moves through speculation to the border of conspiratorial conjecture. Another bright man with an agenda to sell.
Eddie made some very good points as did you all. Given the current trends and accelerating consequences it seems very unlikely that a new ice age is at hand. I do think it pays to consider a few possibilities that make it -though unlikely - not impossible. I certainly see the effects of anthropogenic climate change all around me every day. I spend much of my time trying to mitigate. But, I was not being facetious when I asked JOW if both Guy M and Ice Age Farmer could be right.
Eddie mentioned volcanoes. It is a fact that the planet's magnetic field is weakening. It is a fact that the magnetic poles are moving and that the pace of that movement is accelerating. The geologic record apparently shows a strong correlation between magnetic disruption and increasing volcanic activity in the planet's past. Also, the weakening field does not block out bursts of solar radiation nearly as effectively. (This means a weaker CME could cripple the grid by the way)
We all know that the gulf stream and the circulation in the Atlantic is slowing due to the increase in cold fresh meltwater in the Arctic. We know that the Beaufort Gyre is growing and overdue to let go. If the Atlantic sees a sudden new massive influx of fresh water Europe's climate could very well cool just as the south heats up.
The IPCC is starting to come around on considering some new data on albedo from the increased cloud cover resulting from evaporation due to warming at certain latitudes. I think they were shamed into this by a Princeton paper. Also they are going to consider the effects of other types of solar radiation on the climate. Or, at least they are going to start. From what I read while the light emitted by the sun during minimums diminishes somewhat, x-rays and other solar radiation increases and the historic record of these times shows cooling and climate disruption.
Look, either way food production is in real trouble.
Phil Potts mentioned that climate change did not concern him that much. Folks shouldn't live everywhere. I get that. I don't disagree. But the prospect of the associated human misery with that transition makes me shudder. I'm old and have had a pretty good run. But we have young family and friends.
I strongly suspect that climate extremes are going to continue to accelerate in frequency and worsen in intensity. Remember those mammoths in Siberia they found frozen in the ice about 50 - 60 years ago. They had grass in their mouths. It can happen fast.
I suspect you are right about war. It's in the air.
“All that is solid melts into air, all that is holy is profaned, and man is at last compelled to face with sober senses, his real conditions of life, and his relations with his kind” Karl Marx, Communist Manifesto (1848)
Post by: K-Dog on May 11, 2021, 02:28:55 pm
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse3.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.fuFTTMRvpLkzxrYqj_qEFQHaFj%26pid%3DApi&f=1)
Post by: Eddie on May 11, 2021, 01:05:23 pm
On the #metoo stuff about Guy......I think it’s probably crap. He got played by a woman with an agenda. Sign of the times.
So some woman/women baited him into a conversation where he revealed through his language his thinking on the topic of male/female relationships? And that is the woman's fault? Or his language related to gender relationships is quite common in your experience with other men?
My view is that she probably did more than just bait him into a conversation. I don’t have any real knowledge about what happened, but it looks to me like she lured him into a sexting scandal trap that she then sprung on him, costing him a lot of credibility and maybe some of his livelihood.
In my experience most men will say just about anything that a woman professes to want him to say, if the woman is remotely attractive and the pay-off is sex. He thought he was playing a sex game, but she was playing a power game. imho.
Post by: Phil Potts on May 11, 2021, 11:58:14 am
On the #metoo stuff about Guy......I think it’s probably crap. He got played by a woman with an agenda. Sign of the times.
So some woman/women baited him into a conversation where he revealed through his language his thinking on the topic of male/female relationships? And that is the woman's fault? Or his language related to gender relationships is quite common in your experience with other men?
Moving largely to cybersex and sexting is a sterile outlet and good for population reduction. Guy may be lecherous, but was also no idiot in getting his way. Consider that from those shudderingly cringeworthy messages he has not once, but twice expressed his anticipating intercourse. If you reject the notion that the messages began suggestively but a more tame than that and believe Serena simply discussed climate change and climate terror with him when he suddenly revealed Mr Hyde, then we have to wonder why she didn't cut contact and he got to send a second one. It seems also that after the second one, she still met up with him and had sex, prompting the third message when he was done with her.
Post by: Eddie on May 11, 2021, 05:12:15 am
I was willing to believe Guy McP back then, because AR 9 was thought to be a likely path. It turns out AR4 is far closer to the observed data so far.We have way more data, and it’s instructive.
The science is pointing to a slower process now. Nobody knows where the tipping points are, or even if they’ve already been passed. The long term outlook is still pretty grim, but the headline scare stories are pure bullshit. Everybody is pretty much a campaigner in the world of climate, even people who are supposed to be objective.
No real data I’ve ever seen suggests global cooling. That’s crap. But we could maybe engineer some cooling trying to bioengineer the planet back to a more stable state. And we could get it wrong, as we often do. Overshoot it maybe.
And models are a map, not the territory. If we start having a bunch of volcanoes go off, the models would be wrong, because they don’t map that. or a war that gave us a nuclear winter might change things dramatically.
The climate models have some flaws, and rational criticism of the IPCC should be tolerated, although it really isn’t these days. I still read Judith Curry for some counterpoint. She’s a smart cookie with no axe to grind.
We’ll all be dead long before the 6th extinction (assuming climate is the number one threat) , if there is one, which I still agree is quite likely. In the meantime, things will deteriorate, just not on a Guy McP schedule. People still need to get up and go to work if they want to eat and have a roof over their head. Grieving for a dead planet is a bit premature, in my view.
On the #metoo stuff about Guy......I think it’s probably crap. He got played by a woman with an agenda. Sign of the times.
Post by: K-Dog on May 10, 2021, 03:05:46 pm
Wild speculation is appropriate for stories and for exploring possibilities. But panic will solve nothing.
But might create the right mode in the opposite sex for a little bit of "grief counseling"? ;)
More results generating than being an old single guy in a bar trying to ply anything of the opposite sex with liquor perhaps?
Not the kind of one trick pony I want to be. But good point.
Post by: K-Dog on May 10, 2021, 02:47:53 pm
Bolox.
Crap.
Rubbish.
Rhubarb.
Another boondogle so someone can make money while delaying actually solving the issue.
Perhaps we need organic self replicating transport systems. Think replicants in blade runner.
I know: Horses!
They run on grass. Thats carbon neutral.
We have to stop thinking we can find a technical solution. Technology is the driver of our problems not the solution. Technology allowed us to go into overshoot. Stupidity keeps us here for now.
JOW (The new ludite!)
The East Coast, specifically the MidAtlantic region, tends to produce rich pastures. In these areas, around 2 acres per horse will probably ensure enough for most horses’ needs.
So much for grass fed steak. It could get pricey.
Post by: Phil Potts on May 10, 2021, 01:47:32 pm
Walking Away from Guy McPherson
https://discardingdoom.wordpress.com/2017/11/18/walking-away-from-guy-mcpherson/QuoteThe following is written from a desire to protect the emotional and material well being and professional reputations of those who have been or would potentially be affected by the information offered here. I present my observations as fact which I would stand behind in a legal setting. Having consulted with legal counsel after being cc’d in a letter threatening a potential lawsuit at the behest of retired University of Arizona professor Guy McPherson, I feel comfortable moving forward with publishing this information. Because McPherson has repeatedly suggested pursuing legal action in the form of libel suits in regard to previous interactions with others, and has made some indications that he may pursue a lawsuit with regard to the kind of information disclosed here, I have approached this presentation primarily as a first person assessment and will make an effort to separate my direct observations from analysis, which can be freely disputed based on one’s own interpretation. As I wish to not be rhetorically overburdened by the use of such phrases as “I think,” and “I believe,” anything written here that cannot be directly observed should be viewed by the reader as conclusions which I have drawn, and thus should be weighed against the information provided.
It is a long article. Juicy as ****.
(https://discardingdoom.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/guy-mcpherson-i-copy1.jpg)
The auto software can't turn **** into **** when it is an image.
Could it be that Homeland Security is behind the smearing of Guy? Agree with Guy or consider him a lecherous POS, your choice. But I have no doubt he is on more than one FBI list.
The problem there is not showing the exchange between mcP and Serena. What he was replying to and what replies he got, are needed to put it in context.
Post by: K-Dog on May 10, 2021, 01:04:23 pm
https://discardingdoom.wordpress.com/2017/11/18/walking-away-from-guy-mcpherson/
Quote
The following is written from a desire to protect the emotional and material well being and professional reputations of those who have been or would potentially be affected by the information offered here. I present my observations as fact which I would stand behind in a legal setting. Having consulted with legal counsel after being cc’d in a letter threatening a potential lawsuit at the behest of retired University of Arizona professor Guy McPherson, I feel comfortable moving forward with publishing this information. Because McPherson has repeatedly suggested pursuing legal action in the form of libel suits in regard to previous interactions with others, and has made some indications that he may pursue a lawsuit with regard to the kind of information disclosed here, I have approached this presentation primarily as a first person assessment and will make an effort to separate my direct observations from analysis, which can be freely disputed based on one’s own interpretation. As I wish to not be rhetorically overburdened by the use of such phrases as “I think,” and “I believe,” anything written here that cannot be directly observed should be viewed by the reader as conclusions which I have drawn, and thus should be weighed against the information provided.
It is a long article. Juicy as ****.
(https://discardingdoom.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/guy-mcpherson-i-copy1.jpg)
The auto software can't turn **** into **** when it is an image.
Could it be that Homeland Security is behind the smearing of Guy? Agree with Guy or consider him a lecherous POS, your choice. But I have no doubt he is on more than one FBI list.
Post by: K-Dog on May 10, 2021, 12:41:58 pm
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT ISSUES PAPERExECUTIVE SUMMARy6several analyses of climate models. One study projected a median temperature increase of 2.0°C (3.6°F) for the Caribbean region and 3.2°C (5.7°F) for the Central American region, and they project a median decrease in annual precipitation of 12% for the Caribbean re-gion and 9% for the Central American region. The models also projected a 39% increase in extremely dry seasons for the Caribbean and a 33% increase for Central America. Another study generated regional estimates of future temperature and precipitation, and project-ed an annual average temperature increase of 3.5°C (6.4°F) for Central America, and a decrease in precipitation of 0.33mm (0.013 inches) per day, or 120.45mm (4.7 inches) per year. Climate data for Belize were used to es-timate trends in average rainfall and tempera-tures from 1960 through 2005. Of the ten warmest years in the record, five of these oc-curred in the 1990s and four occurred since 2000. The trend analysis was combined with climate projections from a regional climate model to project average temperature and rainfall in Belize for the period 2010-2100. Average annual temperatures are expected to increase 3.5°C (6.4°F) over the 90-year period, while average rainfall is expected to decrease by 100mm.
Epstein had an Island. Guy had Belize.
I knew going there made no long term environmental sense and not an appropriate place to live for someone advocating change. There had to be other reasons.
Quote
Manipulation and alleged sexual abuse of followers
McPherson solicits donations from his followers,[14] which he uses in part to tour the world and give talks. On social media, he took on the role of grief counselor to help his followers emotionally cope with his claims of doom. A joint statement from several ex-followers summed this up as, "[McPherson] is in a position of authority with direct influence over the mental, emotional, and in some cases physical and monetary lives, of those who exist in a state of vulnerability."[15] In August of 2017 McPherson was accused of sexual harassment by several ex-followers, who claim that his counseling with women often includes sexual advances or abuse.[16] Deep Green Resistance, a radical deep ecology group, was disturbed after finding that he called one woman a "cum-gargling ****", and will no longer work with him.[17]
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Guy_McPherson
Post by: Phil Potts on May 10, 2021, 11:56:05 am
On the question of solar minimum, im a sceptic. I don't see how you predict patterns of anything burning which is my understanding of what it's based on. Having said that, this past summer just ended, definitely felt very nice to be in the sun. When we came to Tasmania 8 yrs ago, we noticed the sun really bites, this past summer did not feel like that. I didn't hear about any 50C days on the mainland either, though I might have missed it if it happened. From my perspective, those were something new in the past decade and never happened before that. Locals here in Tasmania say that definitely the summers are much longer and there's a lot less rain overall than previous decades going back.
For me the climate change question is not the highest priority because I don't believe humans have the right to always occupy every locality, whether it's tropical or near the poles. I think when the climate changes, people have to move. That seems to be a lot more the case with agriculture than hunter gatherer who have in fact used the lower sea level and sea ice to get across the berring strait or Torres strait . I think past civilizations have had to abandon the best temperate regions because of climate change they caused themselves by deforestation for agriculture and building. Now is no different and the scale of our land clearing, paving and building over everything makes the previous times seem insignificant. We can use our technology to delay but not entirely prevent it. We end up with less people where they can't all be supported and seasonal migration becomes an option again.
That leads me to the rest of ice age farmers ideas. I fully agree with him on what we need to do and that alone is worth posting. Some of his other thoughts are still open questions to me. Eg a 'lack of cows' in Australia. I would say first that we have 'cattle' and the numbers in the tropical north that free roam over vast areas of bush and are rounded up by helicopter are huge herds, probably 20x more than found on farms with fences and fields plus feed lots, and we have a lot of those. He would not be aware of that, so would not know that it's drought that causes them to be slaughtered early and in greater numbers, as well as overused and drying up rivers for the dairy farmers that determines the numbers. I don't think it's because anyone has determined we can't eat meat. The paltry number of poultry in Russia could also be climate related, such as freezing.
Meat is the most noticeable food inflation and that's been going on for about ten years. Lamb and Beef by about 70% in that time. I notice Americans talking about Pork the same way, though pork is still cheap here.
It's obviously caused by more mouths to feed worldwide. Hundreds of millions who have been pulled out of their rural subsistence farming and sent to cities to work factories and whatever other services, all up and coming consumers needing feeding. Add to that the climate change we cause meaning less regular and reliable rainfall, more drought or devastating flood and depleted soil, putting more pressure on the whole industry, not just pastoral but also the examples of sourcing animal feed in china he mentioned.
This is not to deny that there are globalists with an agenda, I agree with ice age farmer on that, just not his every suspicion. I do see another hugely self enriching and control consolidating war as part of their agenda and I've been saying it for a long time. The headlines of the last few months should vindicate my money being on that particular horseman of the apocalypse to pay out.
Water wars as a result of climate change between numerous countries on major rivers that have supported civilization for thousands of years will definitely ignite. Many upstream dams and pumps on the nile, Blue Nile, Yangtze, Ganges, Yamuna and Euphrates among others will be bombed and wars breaking out over it. For now, most countries that would be involved are only restrained by UN sanctions and resolutions they would face. That changes when we finally say enough of Russia and China's election meddling, aggression and genocide from decades ago we noticed in 2018. Saving the USD unlimited printing privilege would just be a bonus, not the primary purpose of the Pentagon team, im sure. That hail Mary is not going to make it in the hypersonic missile age anyway and the bankers know it, they would rather deal with all that debt by having it declared bk. Hunter Biden has already been appointed chairman of the Sinoslavic Worldwide Reconstruction company, based on his outstanding credentials.
To me, what we get after all that, with numerous moves by many govts to take over resources of their neighbours, including the plentiful and clean, but giant crocodile infested rivers where all those cattle roam up north, is a more important question than looking at attempting an orderly transition to clean energy as BAU. All the big cities around the world remaining functioning, with ongoing heating and cooling for optimal comfort just seems unlikely to me.
Post by: K-Dog on May 10, 2021, 11:40:16 am
My spoiler tags keep you from having to look at Guy McPherson again if you don't want to.
I can express my feelings with a very simple statement:
'Guy Mcpherson does not know **** about feedback theory.'
And I know what time it is twice a day.
I do not find someone who exploits irrational fears in the name of science to make his money amusing. I realize in the world of doom I am an outlier since I do not feel the need to kiss Guy's ass just because he calls himself a climate scientist and is partial to white suits.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wtvq.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2018%2F02%2FColonel-Harland-Sanders.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
The white suit is a dead giveaway when you think about it. An obvious prop. McPherson is Dinner Theater.
Engineers, particularly Electrical Engineers have to understand how feedback works. White suit wearing 'professors' I suspect do not do as much math as engineers do. As the years roll by a chasm in abilities widens. You don't use it you lose it don't you know.
I find Guy's angst at people in mainstream media referring to tipping points as being far in the future amusing. If Guy had not misrepresented tipping points as an event and instead as part of the naturally occurring interlocked processes they are, mainstream media would not have exploited his exploit. Instead Guy makes facts something to argue about, and in this world white suits have no advantage.
The Earth is a complicated mix of multiple feedback systems. All feedback loops have to be identified and evaluated quantitatively to know what the future holds. Cherry picking data has no place.
Guy makes people passive. He is a thought stopper.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fproductimages.worldofbooks.com%2F0435718134.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
I doubt the book has a single mention of 'tipping point'. Engineers refer to a state as being unstable or a system as bi-stable. Then they work out the math to describe how a physical system will respond to inputs over time. Accuracy of prediction and not shock value is the criteria for success. Wo-wo panic is not involved. An engineer generally will want to know exactly what will happen as the world collapses and the gas tank in the national car runs dry. Wild speculation is appropriate for stories and for exploring possibilities. But panic will solve nothing.
Post by: Digwe Must on May 10, 2021, 08:22:22 am
Guy M and the Ice Age Farmer guy are on opposite sides of the climate change issue.
About 15 years ago Guy M was saying that the methane clathrate problem gave us five years as a species at best. The methane was supposed to emit into the atmosphere at such a rate as to cause massive explosions and flares. I've seen other climate scientists expose the flaws in his work. Guy M is a very bright man with tunnel vision. He then had the personal crisis associated with his work "counseling" women with NTHE anxiety. This gave the folks questioning his conclusions ammunition to assail his credibility.
Up until 2 years ago the Ice Age Farmer guy was claiming we were entering the grand solar minimum NOW. Solar activity was going to continue to drop and we would be entering the next ice age now. Since then the calculations and observations he used have been clarified. Most observers believe we will be seeing the GSM in 2030 or the next solar cycle 11 years later. The IAF guy claims that anthropogenic climate change is a hoax perpetrated by the shadow elites.
Can they both be right?
As Yogi Berra is reputed to have noted, predictions are hard - especially about the future.
Post by: John of Wallan on May 09, 2021, 06:30:32 pm
This guys lays out a good timeline for whats coming and why.
Few seem to realise that no food means no humans... Most think 7/11 will be open and fully stocked for our convenience; its always been that way!
I dont agree 100% with his conspiracy theories about ánything being planned...
We are going into chaotic times with no one in power doing much planning other than trying to get past next election cycle.
Despite all the propaganda about if we change our ways we can save the planet, and continue on with our current lifestyles, its looking more and more like too little too late.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-U45PMTOicM
Do what you can on a local level.
Glabally things will work themselves out chaotically.
JOW
When I said this guy I meant the link to the ice age farmer in previous post. Not Guy M.
He is unfortunately more and more accurately predicting what coming...
JOW
JOW
Post by: John of Wallan on May 09, 2021, 06:27:56 pm
Few seem to realise that no food means no humans... Most think 7/11 will be open and fully stocked for our convenience; its always been that way!
I dont agree 100% with his conspiracy theories about ánything being planned...
We are going into chaotic times with no one in power doing much planning other than trying to get past next election cycle.
Despite all the propaganda about if we change our ways we can save the planet, and continue on with our current lifestyles, its looking more and more like too little too late.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-U45PMTOicM
Do what you can on a local level.
Glabally things will work themselves out chaotically.
JOW
Post by: Phil Potts on May 08, 2021, 07:26:03 pm
Post by: Digwe Must on May 06, 2021, 01:47:01 pm
Of course, the discussion has a bit of trying to bail-the-Titanic-with-a-teacup atmosphere about it. Realistically, it can't be serious and be otherwise. Time is short.
For context, we also drive old vehicles. A 1998 F-150, and a 2002 Subaru are in the driveway and a 2003 jeep sits parked under a Ponderosa pine. The jeep will be leaving soon, I haven't driven it in months. Besides the already discussed points about embedded energy costs in new vehicles, it is much cheaper - at least in this state - to insure and license older vehicles.
We are, however, getting a new tractor. A 4 wheel drive 25HP. At 70 years old I simply can't keep up with all the work here without a machine. We still have much thinning and other work to do in the woods. I have a portable sawmill and the tractor will aid me in skidding logs and getting them on the carriage, also there are a couple of hundred slash piles to be burned and a mile of fencing to be run. The piles that were done with a large commercial machine have too much dirt in them to easily make biochar. With a grapple on the loader I can basically shake the dirt out and make a few tons of char. Moving hay and 1ton totes of grain will, of course, be less wear and tear on the old fart (me). I need to build a shop and an addition on the barn and the tractor will be handy setting posts and beams. And the list goes on.
As handy as it will be, the tractor is a fossil fuel burning machine that required a lot of energy to manufacture and ship here. It has a heavy environmental cost to it. The only way I can ethically justify the purchase is by estimating the environmental benefits of our using the machine to enrich the health of the forest and soil. Do these benefits outweigh the negative environmental impacts? Obviously we've decided they do. A gallon of gas (or diesel ) burned is still in the air no matter the reason. But, I would like to think that forest rehabilitation is a tad better use than idling while in line at Starbucks.
Part of the motivation to get a tractor comes from the loss of Hercules the ox last month. A gentle giant. I could get a couple of calves and train them up - but it will take two years to get meaningful work out of them. I'm too damn old to wait - but if we were to get an intern with an interest in draft animals I'd do it in a heartbeat. The future will be animal powered for those of us not in the elite or the military. The tractor is certainly more versatile than a draft animal - but in a pinch the draft animal is easier to feed.
Most of the Northwestern US has hydro power feeding the grid. So, charging an electric vehicle is less problematic in this region than in coal country. However, the environmental costs of the lithium extraction are devastating. For that matter, the rare earths used in wind generators also have a dirty extraction and manufacturing process. I agree that techno-fixes that allow the continuation of BAU are .... unlikely at best.
All of us here can have the best of intentions and make our decisions based on what we think is best for the planet and yet be completely nullified by a few private jet flights to the Bahamas. I knew a pilot who actually flew a very wealthy divorced couple's dogs back and forth from Texas to California a couple of times a year for "visitation". No one else on the plane. True story.
The little town of Usk, Washington has a plant that used to manufacture newsprint. The plant was owned by a large lumber corporation and because of a drop in demand and price for newsprint, went bankrupt. There were three bidders for the plant. One bidder was the Kalispell Tribe of Indians. They wanted to operate the plant. The tribe can make investments like this because they have excellent funding from their casino and don't have to be worried about immediate profit. They are trying to provide good employment for the tribal members and a market for tribal timber resources. The plant is powered by an adjacent dam on the Pend O'reille River. They also burn the manufacturing waste to generate power.
The tribe was outbid by a California corporation. They just kept throwing money at it. At first the new owners said they were going to operate the portion of the plant used to manufacture paper used in corrugated cardboard. The next day (April 29) it was disclosed that they would operate the plant but use all the excess power to mine for bitcoin. We hear now from the manager of a local mill that, in fact, the primary business of the new mill will be crypto currency mining. They are trying to find a source for mega loads of wood chips to generate more power. Of course, that will employ far fewer people than a paper mill and most of the higher paid positions will be for workers brought in from out of the area.
Sure, if they are going to use electricity for this "industry", this is cleaner than coal. That is the only good thing I can say about it. To me this is just another sign of frenzy before collapse.
I must go shovel manure. They say eventually a man finds the work he's suited for.
It's very dry and warm here. Unseasonable would be an understatement. Pray for rain.
Post by: RE on May 05, 2021, 01:53:37 am
I once predicted the future will be more like "Little house on the prairie" than "Mad max". Now I am not so sure.
I'll stick with 10,000 BC. What goes around, comes around.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoKxkx0bYRk
We'll have to wait a while for anything as big as a mammoth to re-evolve though. We'll be chasing down rats for quite some time to come.
https://youtu.be/rV0NN2eFVqE
RE
Post by: John of Wallan on May 05, 2021, 01:07:28 am
Crap.
Rubbish.
Rhubarb.
Another boondogle so someone can make money while delaying actually solving the issue.
A carbon price will not work.
It just forces a transition away from fossil fuels to something else with more unknown consequences.
Thalidimide, DDT, CFC's , PCBs, asbestos all have useful characteristics, and initially un-forseen downsides...
Every EV has a huge carbon footprint to manufacture and more complex systems and technology. We need to de-industrialise not re-industrialise to something new.
We need less people too. I dont want it, but we need it. It will happen of its own accord shortly. We are in population overshoot measured by so many metrics: Desertification, over fishing, salinnation, loss of topsoil, peak oil, peak water, deforestation, peak helium, increased reliance on rare earth minerals, loss of biodiversity, peak phospherous.... Thats just what I can remember.
Perhaps we need organic self replicating transport systems. Think replicants in blade runner.
I know: Horses!
They run on grass. Thats carbon neutral.
We have to stop thinking we can find a technical solution. Technology is the driver of our problems not the solution. Technology allowed us to go into overshoot. Stupidity keeps us here for now.
JOW (The new ludite!)
Post by: K-Dog on May 04, 2021, 07:36:42 pm
Quote
Like with all efficiency gains, it only increases usage not decreases usage. Stop subsidizing fossil fuels. True manufacturing and running costs will then be self correcting. People will walk more.
A carbon price is the single most powerful tool available to reduce
Net Zero by 2050
https://citizensclimatelobby.org/price-on-carbon/
A strong, economy-wide price on carbon could reduce
A carbon tax becomes affordable for ordinary
https://youtu.be/W25_jgiY51I
Carbon Dividends are money in your pocket.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftoppng.com%2Fuploads%2Fthumbnail%2F100-dollar-bill-11549435244rpc0pr6xzv.png&f=1&nofb=1)(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftoppng.com%2Fuploads%2Fthumbnail%2F100-dollar-bill-11549435244rpc0pr6xzv.png&f=1&nofb=1)(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftoppng.com%2Fuploads%2Fthumbnail%2F100-dollar-bill-11549435244rpc0pr6xzv.png&f=1&nofb=1)
Post by: John of Wallan on May 04, 2021, 02:46:08 pm
Drove from Melbourne to Cairns in 1991 at 160km/h all the way (100mph Merikan). No speed cameras back then. Just about broke me in fuel cost.
Handling was always exciting. Torsion bar front end.
This was obsolete before they even sold them.
If you drive a car like this very small distances every year fuel use is not an issue. Carbon footprint from manufacture is being spread over more years so actually is better than a new EV you change every 5 years based on age and resale not distance travelled like most do.. These have a horrendous manufacturing carbon footprint. Only make sense if you drive longer distances a year and actually wear it out!
Like with all efficiency gains, it only increases usage not decreases usage. Stop subsidising fossil fuels. True manufacturing and running costs will then be self correcting. People will walk more.
Everyone prefers virtue signaling rather than green wash reality.
JOW
Post by: Phil Potts on May 04, 2021, 02:19:52 pm
I'm betting the average American doesn't even equate sitting in a Starbucks line with energy issues. Based on the consumer response to the energy crisis of the 1970's though, they can be made to understand one. The price pay they pay to fill their tank, or if there happens to be any fuel to buy.
Which is why the era of bigger is better and land yachts like my 77 Chrslyer hemi (cousin to the Bluesmobile 74 Dodge Polara) went the way of the dinosaur.
I figured it might also have had something to do with taking your life in your hands in these behemoths last time I took it out. All excited after getting it out andready on Sunday to hit the road before 5 for about a 6am start. In the dark, heavy fog and the wipers and demister are hardly helping. It was ok once I got onto the main highway, but on a minor single lane winding highway, not so much. Pizza cutter tyres, wipers and demister not helping much, log trucks all coming from the other way while you can barely see where you're going and keep it both on your side of the road without going off the road.. easy to end up upside down.
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Post by: John of Wallan on May 04, 2021, 01:49:23 pm
The rest is just a sideshow on the way to the final solution, like steam cars 120 years ago, wood gas burners during WW2 fuel shortages, nuclear cars and gas turbine cars in the 60's, the hydrogen "miracle" of the last 40 years and EV's now.
They all actually work from an engineering standpoint, but don't make economic or practical sense and cant be scaled to meet the transport needs of society.
Before anyone tells me horse and cart cant be scaled to meet the needs of modern society, I will suggest modern society will be very different in 20 years, if we make it. I am expecting a lot wont.
I once predicted the future will be more like "Little house on the prairie" than "Mad max". Now I am not so sure.
At least you can eat a horse if you get desperate. Not sure I want to go the long pig option.
JOW
Post by: Phil Potts on May 04, 2021, 01:39:53 pm
I am driving this (the gas version, not the Diesel shown):(https://www.cstatic-images.com/car-pictures/maxWidth503/usb70mbc801a0101.png)
You can get them for $3,000 — $15,000. Eddy has (or had) one too. If you get a good one you have great value for the money. I don't care what the mileage of it is (it is actually pretty good. 27 MPG on the freeway). What matters is how much I drive it. Two trips a week in a fuel efficient car to the same place farts more CO2 out than one trip to the same place no matter what else you drive. Plan your driving to minimize miles driven. Save some money. If people really cared about fuel efficiency, saying how much fuel a car uses at idle stuck in traffic or uses up when a 'Karen' uses it to drive through Starbucks without turning off the engine while as she waits for cars in front to move would be on the white sticker when it was sold. Idle consumption is as important as knowing what the mileage is where I live.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse2.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.Y91xN6zb_-XOvRUQ9DringHaE8%26pid%3DApi&f=1)
You know every car in that line has its engine running and you are NOT going to get through that line in 5 minutes. Maybe they could have a car wash pull mechanism? That would keep the engines off. But I'm kidding. No Diner would be in this line. An average drive through at a fast food place I'll guess uses up fifty cents worth of fuel at todays prices unless there is no line. With no line the odds of someone being smart enough to turn the engine off at the window is increased. The answer is not to drive an electric. The answer is cook at home and make sure everyone else does too. Nobody likes the second part of that statement. I don't.
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As things are Diners would find another way to get our coffee fix. If I could find a local boiled tree bark I liked as much that would be great.
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The world will not and cannot conserve itself to salvation. The general public has been propagandized with this idea because that is where capitalism wants things to go. It keeps the existing arrangement going the longest.
* Changing our ways is not in the equation but that is the only thing that could work.
The equation:
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.quizlaw.com%2Fblog%2Fimages%2Fmath-problem.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
Having 'Woman' in the equation is only humor, but a healthy guy will drive fifty miles to get laid. 100 miles round trip.
There's a problem with quoting the post u want, but getting KD s post the 1st time
Post by: K-Dog on May 02, 2021, 11:17:14 pm
200 watts hr is the consumption number.
No, Watt-Hr is a unit of measurement.
I was going to be a smart ass and say in his day Lance Armstrong could put out 4 times that much, and that is NO DOPE.
Then I realized that unless it is explained in a physics course (which I have had) confusion could be legitimate. The guy who wrote this says it fine.
Quote
As you may have noticed, we use Watt Hours to explain the capacity of most of our products. For many of us, a Watt Hour isn’t something all that familiar. So, here’s a brief explanation of what it is.
A Watt Hour is a unit of measurement for power over a period of time (an hour), or in our case, a way of measuring capacity. One Watt hour is equal to one Watt of average power flow over an hour. One Watt over four hours would be four Watt Hours of power. As an example, a 100 Watt light bulb on a 400 Watt Hour battery (like the Yeti 400) would last, on paper, 4 hours.
A Watt, the measure of power, is usually calculated using this equation: Watts = Volts x Amps. To explain a little further, we will use a plumbing analogy. If we have a water pipe; Volts would be a measure of the water pressure (force) in the pipe, Amps would be a measure of the current or flow through the pipe. A Watt would be the measure of of what you can do with that water, like turning a water wheel. So, how do we determine Watt hours?
Watt Hours are calculated using a similar equation when dealing with batteries. An example of this would be that the Yeti 400 contains a 33 Amp Hour battery operating at 12 Volts. 12 Volts x 33 Amp Hours = 396 Watt Hours or roughly 400 Wh. Not only are Watt Hours a good unit of measurement for capacity, but it is also pretty universal when finding out how many times one of our GZ products will recharge something with it’s own battery in it (like a phone, tablet, or laptop). The Equation to find the Watt Hours of a battery gives us a universal measurement despite batteries on the market varying greatly in operating voltage and mAh.
Battery capacity or power used. Both are measured in watt-hours.
If you drive your Tesla at one kilometer per hour you would be correct. Walking is three times as fast. Ants do 1 km an hour. Interestingly the closest Starbucks to me is a mile away and 350 feet lower in altitude. An electric driving at 15 miles or less an hour might actually deliver more power to the battery than was used getting there. You'd have to go slow to recover enough power coming down the hill to make up for getting to the top of the hill from the house.
That is not a good reason to get one.
Post by: K-Dog on May 02, 2021, 11:06:27 pm
QuoteI've got a nice 20 year old Chrysler sitting outside, it hadn't been running for a month, and I finally got the intake torn apart and it back together and running. Unfortunately, I seem to be the only one in the family interested in driving a clunker.
I find with the car only running once every ten days or so it is a lot harder to keep clean. The wheels stay free of brake dust but driving does not blow pollen and dust away. If I don't keep it clean it can get crusty fast.
Mine managed to collect a busted windshield during the last big freeze. Same freeze took out the last of what the battery had. Tried to get the battery back to life, failed, slow leak took out the driver side front, presto, POS clogging up the driveway. A month or more later I finally got around to removing the intake to get at the battery and replace it, put it all back together, back to the tire shop to find the leak, presto, perfectly functional car with a busted windshield. Everyone refuses to drive it. No bluetooth, plus its a stick. Rain keeps it generally clean.
I too have a POS clogging my driveway. Not the one I drive. That one I might wax tomorrow.
Post by: Nearings fault on May 02, 2021, 02:56:25 pm
Driving at 80 kilometers an hour you move 80 kilometers in one hour. <-- Don't say Duh.an 80km trip to Starbucks? I believe I got my energy denotation right. 200watts hr is the consumption number. Instantaneous would be watts and it is probably many times 200 for short durations.
(80 kilometers) x (200 watts/kilometer) = 16000 kW.
Your number is 16kW and mine is 17kW. No difference, mine was an educated guess and my math is still valid.
The distinction between kW and kwh is frequently overlooked. kW is the rate at which energy is being used. kWh is how much has been used. 200 W is how much energy it takes to cover a kilometer and a speed was not given.
I picked 50 mph which works out to 80 kph.
I would say we generally agree that the best answer is driving much much less.
Post by: K-Dog on May 02, 2021, 01:07:18 pm
Quote
I've got a nice 20 year old Chrysler sitting outside, it hadn't been running for a month, and I finally got the intake torn apart and it back together and running. Unfortunately, I seem to be the only one in the family interested in driving a clunker.
I find with the car only running once every ten days or so it is a lot harder to keep clean. The wheels stay free of brake dust but driving does not blow pollen and dust away. If I don't keep it clean it can get crusty fast.
Post by: K-Dog on May 02, 2021, 01:01:39 pm
Quote
Oh, I don't think you'll find anyone arguing for a coal buildout.
No there won't be any. The expectation will be the needed Giga-Watts will be farted out a unicorns' ass.
(https://globalcollapse.createaforum.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.supernaturalwiki.com%2Fimages%2Fthumb%2Fe%2Fe8%2FRainbow.jpg%2F350px-Rainbow.jpg&hash=a7d394dfa96ca09db4fd51eb73284b1876fdfd2b)
Post by: K-Dog on May 02, 2021, 12:56:30 pm
(80 kilometers) x (200 watts/kilometer) = 16000 kW.
Your number is 16kW and mine is 17kW. No difference, mine was an educated guess and my math is still valid.
The distinction between kW and kwh is frequently overlooked. kW is the rate at which energy is being used. kWh is how much has been used. 200 W is how much energy it takes to cover a kilometer and a speed was not given.
I picked 50 mph which works out to 80 kph.
Post by: Nearings fault on May 02, 2021, 10:26:00 am
the tesla x is rated at a little over 200 watt hrs per kmQuoteAnd it is a car that emits less in 10 trips than a fuel efficient Mercedes in 1.
You will have have a very hard time convincing me that the trip ratio difference is more than 2 / 1. Batteries also need a lot of lithium and don't last forever. Everything considered driving old cars as long as we can might be smarter than going green with electrics. The power generated at the power plant and the environmental costs to manufacture and deal with a fleet of electrics is as bad as what we have now. The best thing is drive as little as you can without 'driving' yourself crazy.
The drive through at Starbucks demonstrates how poorly the American Public understands energy issues. It is not a statement for or against electrics.
Electrics are part of the solution as long as you only drive it on days you are licensed to do so. We will have to ration power or too much CO2 will be emitted at the coal burning plants than the current Paris or whatever agreement will be allowing. If you don't think you will need new coal fired power plants to charge 100 million new electric cars in America you are dreaming. Nothing else could give that much power in the time frame needed.
Nobody to my knowledge has done this math so I will. Lets say it takes 17 kW to get Karen to (https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi0.wp.com%2Fwww.brandenwilliams.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F01%2Fstarbucks-coffee-logo.gif%3Fresize%3D150%252C150%26ssl%3D1&f=1&nofb=1) where yes, she can wait in line and message on her phone with no idle emissions. It took her 17kW to get there. That does not change.
So 100 million new electrics won't be driven all the time. Lets say 15% use each day and the rest of the time they are parked. If you dispute the ratio, dispute the 100 million as well.
That means 15 000 000 cars are using 17kW for a total of 255 Gw.QuoteU.S. coal-fired capacity peaked at 318 gigawatts (GW) in 2011 and has been declining since then because many plants retired or switched to other fuels and few new coal-fired plants came online. By the end of 2019, U.S. coal-generating capacity totaled 229 GW.QuoteIn 2020, net generation of electricity from utility-scale generators in the United States was about 4,009 billion kilowatthours (kWh)
4,009 billion kWh / 8760 hrs (hours in a year) => 458.0 GW
This little exercise reveals the US is getting exactly 50% of its electricity from coal.
Cutting to the chase: 100 million new electrics will require increasing electric generating capacity by ((255/458)x100%.
After the math crunches 100 million new electrics will require increasing National Electric Generating Capacity by 58%.
I wonder why nobody pushing the green new deal has pointed this out?
(https://i.imgflip.com/2/2w6m27.jpg)
I wonder why nobody else has pointed this out?
Does this mean we are screwed?
* the math can be customized to reflect your country of residence
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.tesla.com/en_EU/support/european-union-energy-label&ved=2ahUKEwjfqfu0zqvwAhUQbc0KHUgEDPYQFjAKegQIGBAC&usg=AOvVaw3bu5di3U0kTWpjTNG_L4dF
While I do not disagree with a renewed grid being a prerequisite for electric cars. I think the math should be as close to right as possible...
I do think we will see the same thing happen as did with fuel injection. Watts per km will lead to heavier vehicles until efficiency is about the same... I forget what that energy law is called.
Post by: K-Dog on May 02, 2021, 09:30:47 am
https://youtu.be/nrzyNsDOgX8
Go 15 minutes in to get straight to the Dividends.
https://citizensclimatelobby.org/
Post by: K-Dog on May 02, 2021, 08:43:12 am
Quote
And it is a car that emits less in 10 trips than a fuel efficient Mercedes in 1.
You will have have a very hard time convincing me that the trip ratio difference is more than 2 / 1. Batteries also need a lot of lithium and don't last forever. Everything considered driving old cars as long as we can might be smarter than going green with electrics. The power generated at the power plant and the environmental costs to manufacture and deal with a fleet of electrics is as bad as what we have now. The best thing is drive as little as you can without 'driving' yourself crazy.
The drive through at Starbucks demonstrates how poorly the American Public understands energy issues. It is not a statement for or against electrics.
Electrics are part of the solution as long as you only drive it on days you are licensed to do so. We will have to ration power or too much CO2 will be emitted at the coal burning plants than the current Paris or whatever agreement will be allowing. If you don't think you will need new coal fired power plants to charge 100 million new electric cars in America you are dreaming. Nothing else could give that much power in the time frame needed.
Nobody to my knowledge has done this math so I will. Lets say it takes 17 kW to get Karen to (https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi0.wp.com%2Fwww.brandenwilliams.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2013%2F01%2Fstarbucks-coffee-logo.gif%3Fresize%3D150%252C150%26ssl%3D1&f=1&nofb=1) where yes, she can wait in line and message on her phone with no idle emissions. It took her 17kW to get there. That does not change.
So 100 million new electrics won't be driven all the time. Lets say 15% use each day and the rest of the time they are parked. If you dispute the ratio, dispute the 100 million as well.
That means 15 000 000 cars are using 17kW for a total of 255 Gw.
Quote
U.S. coal-fired capacity peaked at 318 gigawatts (GW) in 2011 and has been declining since then because many plants retired or switched to other fuels and few new coal-fired plants came online. By the end of 2019, U.S. coal-generating capacity totaled 229 GW.
Quote
In 2020, net generation of electricity from utility-scale generators in the United States was about 4,009 billion kilowatthours (kWh)
4,009 billion kWh / 8760 hrs (hours in a year) => 458.0 GW
This little exercise reveals the US is getting exactly 50% of its electricity from coal.
Cutting to the chase: 100 million new electrics will require increasing electric generating capacity by ((255/458)x100%.
After the math crunches 100 million new electrics will require increasing National Electric Generating Capacity by 58%.
I wonder why nobody pushing the green new deal has pointed this out?
(https://i.imgflip.com/2/2w6m27.jpg)
I wonder why nobody else has pointed this out?
Does this mean we are screwed?
* the math can be customized to reflect your country of residence
Post by: K-Dog on May 01, 2021, 02:17:36 pm
Post by: K-Dog on May 01, 2021, 12:58:07 am
Quote
Nobody goes anywhere to get laid when the risk v reward calculus is Russian roulette
(https://149478393.v2.pressablecdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/brazilprostitutes.jpg)
On Monday, a group of sex workers from the Association of Prostitutes of Mins Gerais took over a street full of shuttered hotels where they once worked, in pre-pandemic times. Now they have been forced out onto the street to solicit for clients, still legally, but in a much less secure environment, prostitutes reveal.
(https://www.everydaynodaysoff.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Spica-Russian-Roulette.jpg)
“We are in the front line, moving the economy and we are at risk,” the association’s president Cida Vieira, who took part in the protest, told AFP. “We need to get vaccinated.”
Cida is in the top pic I believe.
Post by: K-Dog on May 01, 2021, 12:28:49 am
Quote
Nobody goes anywhere to get laid when the risk v reward calculus is Russian roulette and if they do, they don't procreate
We live in a strange historical bubble, likely to be temporary where getting laid and procreating are not the same thing.
Contraception made the difference. It makes a huge difference comparing how much CO2 is used up in the two activities also.
Code: [Select]
If (getting laid) {
fuel_burned = 4 // US gallons;
CO2 = 19 * fuel_burned; // lbs per gallon;
}
Print CO2;76 pounds.
CO2 generated by actually procreating: (from birth to adulthood only)
(https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/9/95/Tank_truck%E3%82%BF%E3%83%B3%E3%82%AF%E3%83%AD%E3%83%BC%E3%83%AA%E3%83%BC9274341.jpg/220px-Tank_truck%E3%82%BF%E3%83%B3%E3%82%AF%E3%83%AD%E3%83%BC%E3%83%AA%E3%83%BC9274341.jpg)
Code: [Select]
If (having baby) {
fuel_burned = 11600 // US gallons;
CO2 = 19 * fuel_burned; // lbs per gallon;
}
Print CO2;220,400 pounds.
That is more than a little bit of difference.
Now take the second code block and think: 'Eight billion meat packages.'
Post by: Phil Potts on May 01, 2021, 12:06:13 am
Nobody goes anywhere to get laid when the risk v reward calculus is Russian roulette and if they do, they don't procreate if it's like using 3 chambered rounds... (as I type on a wireless internet cellphone 6 inches from my testicles).
Post by: K-Dog on April 30, 2021, 11:43:50 pm
Quote
The world will not and cannot conserve itself to salvation. The general public has been propagandized with this idea because that is where capitalism wants things to go. It keeps the existing arrangement going the longest.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.kinja-img.com%2Fgawker-media%2Fimage%2Fupload%2Ft_original%2Fy7jtwugvbwepab240fxv.gif&f=1&nofb=1)
Post by: K-Dog on April 30, 2021, 11:07:33 pm
I am driving this (the gas version, not the Diesel shown):(https://www.cstatic-images.com/car-pictures/maxWidth503/usb70mbc801a0101.png)
You can get them for $3,000 — $15,000. Eddy has (or had) one too. If you get a good one you have great value for the money. I don't care what the mileage of it is (it is actually pretty good. 27 MPG on the freeway). What matters is how much I drive it. Two trips a week in a fuel efficient car to the same place farts more CO2 out than one trip to the same place no matter what else you drive. Plan your driving to minimize miles driven. Save some money. If people really cared about fuel efficiency, saying how much fuel a car uses at idle stuck in traffic or uses up when a 'Karen' uses it to drive through Starbucks without turning off the engine while as she waits for cars in front to move would be on the white sticker when it was sold. Idle consumption is as important as knowing what the mileage is where I live.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse2.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.Y91xN6zb_-XOvRUQ9DringHaE8%26pid%3DApi&f=1)
You know every car in that line has its engine running and you are NOT going to get through that line in 5 minutes. Maybe they could have a car wash pull mechanism? That would keep the engines off. But I'm kidding. No Diner would be in this line. An average drive through at a fast food place I'll guess uses up fifty cents worth of fuel at todays prices unless there is no line. With no line the odds of someone being smart enough to turn the engine off at the window is increased. The answer is not to drive an electric. The answer is cook at home and make sure everyone else does too. Nobody likes the second part of that statement. I don't.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP.zcjqIv9ExwaikdEmzuR08wHaCJ%26pid%3DApi&f=1)
As things are Diners would find another way to get our coffee fix. If I could find a local boiled tree bark I liked as much that would be great.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.pinimg.com%2Foriginals%2F25%2F23%2Fe3%2F2523e3e40fdbb5d925419cf2942647a3.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
The world will not and cannot conserve itself to salvation. The general public has been propagandized with this idea because that is where capitalism wants things to go. It keeps the existing arrangement going the longest.
* Changing our ways is not in the equation but that is the only thing that could work.
The equation:
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.quizlaw.com%2Fblog%2Fimages%2Fmath-problem.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
Having 'Woman' in the equation is only humor, but a healthy guy will drive fifty miles to get laid. 100 miles round trip.
Post by: Nearings fault on April 30, 2021, 02:46:06 pm
I honestly dont know anymore. I find the numbers are skewed to match whoever's point is being made. I think a vehicle that is maintained and replaced piece by piece and driven sparingly should have a lower carbon footprint regardless of fuel. Based on my research the current batch of electric vehicles will last the life of the battery. Maybe there will be a huge aftermarket that develops to refit the cars but everything about them is assembled for fit not for sustainability...I totally agree.Transport: I drive a 16 year old ford explorer that I try to keep maintained and running even if it makes less and less sense financially. I could invest several tens of thousands of dollars for a slightly more efficient vehicle but it violates many of my financial rules so no.
You also would have to calculate all the embedded energy involved with replacing that vehicle. For instance if you replaced it with an EV, the batteries for it have a huge embedded energy in their manufacture.
RE
And how would you calculate this embedded energy, and determine its value in a real world purchase? Does less embedded energy indicate a less expensive/practical/efficient vehicle, or more?
Post by: Nearings fault on April 30, 2021, 05:49:38 am
Read deeper and I also see woody shrubs replacing moss and lichen and a deeper soil able to support much more carbon sequestering biomass... Do the models reflect a greening arctic able to absorb carbon? I dont know how to do the fancy pasting you guys do so it's just a link. Again, just looking for opinions I'm not staking some sort of position here
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/thin-ice-labrador-summer-climate-changes-1.6005130
Post by: Nearings fault on April 30, 2021, 02:56:51 am
I totally agree. I doubt I'm going down the EV rabbit hole anytime soon... Consumer society is very tempting though. I found myself going over the specs for the Rivian and the Tesla Cybertruck... There Is no way in hell I would pay those prices but its eye candy. What does have my energy brain going is the coming cheap supply of lithium vehicle banks that will be hitting the off grid world in the next few years. What car companies consider worn out would still make awesome stand alone home systems ...Transport: I drive a 16 year old ford explorer that I try to keep maintained and running even if it makes less and less sense financially.
It uses a lot of fuel but it will move 6 people in a pinch and easily move my family of 4 with gear. It will also pull anything I need for work which can be a few hundred pounds to several thousand. I could invest several tens of thousands of dollars for a slightly more efficient vehicle but it violates many of my financial rules so no.
You also would have to calculate all the embedded energy involved with replacing that vehicle. For instance if you replaced it with an EV, the batteries for it have a huge embedded energy in their manufacture.
RE
Post by: RE on April 29, 2021, 11:20:06 pm
Transport: I drive a 16 year old ford explorer that I try to keep maintained and running even if it makes less and less sense financially.
It uses a lot of fuel but it will move 6 people in a pinch and easily move my family of 4 with gear. It will also pull anything I need for work which can be a few hundred pounds to several thousand. I could invest several tens of thousands of dollars for a slightly more efficient vehicle but it violates many of my financial rules so no.
You also would have to calculate all the embedded energy involved with replacing that vehicle. For instance if you replaced it with an EV, the batteries for it have a huge embedded energy in their manufacture.
RE
Post by: Nearings fault on April 29, 2021, 06:23:17 am
Housing: build as energy efficiently as possible spend the money now before deflation happens to limit your energy usage far into the future. Choose high durability finishes that require little maintenance planning for low energy senior years. Choose modular technologies that can be subbed out if they fail down the road and dont rely on a single technology. Generate as much energy yourself as possible understanding that a watt not used is worth 2 or 3 watts generated.
Financial: Live under your means in terms of square footage, car costs, discretionary spending. Spending money you don't have feeds the bankers and encourages the worst elements of our society. Dont take your financial advice from people who make money off your decisions. If you hate global corporations, mineral extraction, big ag, predatory banking dont surrender your savings to them and take responsibility for your choices. Big returns come with huge consequences to someone or somewhere.
Food: I am an omnivore. I have grown large portions of my own food in the past but I'm evolving my view of this issue as a conscious effort to stop deluding myself. I am very good at building, fixing, and energy issues. I am an absolute failure as a subsistence farmer. 2 km from me I have an organic farm that is compost and horse powered... to not take advantage of that is delusional. I have several grass fed cattle operations around me and even have some true gems : local small slaughtering capacity. Not taking advantage of that is again delusional
. I like to garden, like chickens, storing food, growing greens under light out of season but without a food community I would starve. We have started doing as much of our food purchases directly and locally. Organic from california cannot compete with conventional produce locally.
Transport: I drive a 16 year old ford explorer that I try to keep maintained and running even if it makes less and less sense financially.
It uses a lot of fuel but it will move 6 people in a pinch and easily move my family of 4 with gear. It will also pull anything I need for work which can be a few hundred pounds to several thousand. I could invest several tens of thousands of dollars for a slightly more efficient vehicle but it violates many of my financial rules so no. I lower its emissions by not driving. When I work I only work local even if there is a financial penalty to it. My partner drives a 10 year old Mazda 3 which sips so little fuel a transition to electric would be pure hubris and defy all environmental and financial logic. I'm lucky in that I vacation where I live. I like to hike, camp, canoe trip, ski. All of those dont involve more that a few hours of travel. Consequently I have not flown in five years and dont want to anytime soon. I might take a flight to the Rockies to ski again someday but as a special experience.
All of this adds up to a better life while shrinking my footprint dramatically. I feel no need to calculate it since you just cant please the armchair warriors and I feel no need to do it anymore. I'm an incrementalist but incrementalism over a lifetime is revolutionary....
Cheers, NF
Post by: Digwe Must on April 28, 2021, 09:34:02 pm
Here, we deal directly with the effects of climate change every day. The songbirds are gone. Two of the tree species native to this area are in deep trouble. We face more and more catastrophic wildfires all the time.
There are factors at work that are only now being given the weight they deserve in climate science. The Princeton paper of a few years ago that noted the IPCC reports did not account for the albedo from increasing cloud cover due to evaporation at certain latitudes is one example. The Beufort Gyre is overdue to spill out into the Atlantic which will further slow the circulating currents that bring livable weather to northern Europe. The magnetic poles are moving at an increased rate and the magnetic field of the planet is weakening in response to solar changes. Increasing volcanic activity is throwing crap (technical term) into the stratosphere at an accelerating rate.
These forces which are acting in opposition to anthropogenic climate change aren't going to calm things down. We can count on ever more violent extremes being with us from now on.
Even if human were not causing a warming planet, we are certainly killing the oceans and poisoning the fresh water and the air we all breathe.
I agree that we must consume less. And we will, like it or not. Dramatically less. Regarding the planting of trees- that depends. In many places trees must be planted to replace forests that have been denuded. The benefits of reforestation in those areas are difficult to overstate. However, many forests in the North American west are actually suffering from too many stems and too much brush. Interruption of the fire cycle and other poor management techniques have left a fire prone, genetically inferior mess. The world doesn't just need more trees. It needs healthy forests and living soil.
Meanwhile, the cherry blossoms are out two weeks early here. The wild turkeys are setting eggs a bit early and the maple sap ran weeks ahead of normal.
I had to put down Hercules the ox last week. He was my partner working in the woods for years. I would include a picture of him if I could figure out how. He was a Brown Swiss steer that taped at 2,700lbs. - a very impressive, massively strong animal that didn't have a mean bone in his body. I bring it up because part of what will necessarily transpire over the coming years is a return to biological solutions for our challenges wherever appropriate as opposed to mechanical or electronic responses.
The 2019 plum wine is excellent. I wish I could pour y'all a glass.
Post by: Phil Potts on April 28, 2021, 07:09:33 pm
Post by: John of Wallan on April 28, 2021, 03:00:09 pm
There is a time lag between cause and effect in our climate, and the ecological and socio-economic systems that depend on it. Thus, some of the impacts of human activity on climate change may be slow to become apparent, meaning we could cross some irreversible thresholds before we know it.
That isn’t to say that climate change is unavoidable, whether we cut emissions or not. Studies have shown that the time between a pulse of greenhouse gas (GHG) and most of its warming is around a decade. Thus, we will experience the full effect of today’s emissions in 10 to 20 years time, but we can still avoid the worst of it.
(https://u4d2z7k9.rocketcdn.me/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/TimelagCO2.jpg)
What if emissions stopped today?
Would we return to the pre-industrial climate?
Unfortunately, the time lag works both ways, so no. We’ve accumulated enough GHGs in the atmosphere to keep trapping heat for some time, leading to the release of more GHGs like methane in the Arctic circle. Atmospheric CO2 levels would drop, but sinks like our ocean surface are saturating, and sediment uptake is slow.
Thus it is essential for us to combine emission mitigation with adaptation strategies, using our best estimates of future climates to create sustainable practices.
Geoengineering remains an option, albeit a dangerous one. It involves human tampering with the climate to reduce the effects of climate change, such as dispersing particles in the air, seeding clouds or using giant mirrors to reflect heat back into space.
(https://u4d2z7k9.rocketcdn.me/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/GeoengineeringMethods-ClimateCentral_900_639_s_c1_c_c.jpg)
The long term knock on effects of such methods are unknown and rife with destructive potential too, so it is best to be wary.
The bottom line is we’ve already locked in a more difficult future, which is all the more reason to take drastic counter-measures now, even at an economical loss. It is difficult to estimate, but the consequences of putting short term benefits first will be far worse long-term loss.
References
Ricke, Katharine L., and Ken Caldeira. “Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission.” Environmental Research Letters 9.12 (2014): 124002.
Climate Central: Geoengineering methods.
https://earth.org/data_visualization/the-time-lag-of-climate-change/
All the stuff I have read points to a number of thresholds we have already crossed.
Biggest canary in the coal mine will be Ice Free Arctic. Thats coming very soon. Spells disaster for food production. Thats when you need your bunker full of tinned peaches and spam...
I do believe we have screwed the pooch already. I am not giving up in despair, just trying to make a life boat for whoever gets through this clusterfuck.
Plant trees. Consume less. Thats all we can do. I have given up trying to change people or the system. They will self correct shortly.
JOW
Post by: Blade of Grass on April 27, 2021, 05:55:36 am
That isn’t to say that climate change is unavoidable, whether we cut emissions or not. Studies have shown that the time between a pulse of greenhouse gas (GHG) and most of its warming is around a decade. Thus, we will experience the full effect of today’s emissions in 10 to 20 years time, but we can still avoid the worst of it.
(https://u4d2z7k9.rocketcdn.me/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/TimelagCO2.jpg)
What if emissions stopped today?
Would we return to the pre-industrial climate?
Unfortunately, the time lag works both ways, so no. We’ve accumulated enough GHGs in the atmosphere to keep trapping heat for some time, leading to the release of more GHGs like methane in the Arctic circle. Atmospheric CO2 levels would drop, but sinks like our ocean surface are saturating, and sediment uptake is slow.
Thus it is essential for us to combine emission mitigation with adaptation strategies, using our best estimates of future climates to create sustainable practices.
Geoengineering remains an option, albeit a dangerous one. It involves human tampering with the climate to reduce the effects of climate change, such as dispersing particles in the air, seeding clouds or using giant mirrors to reflect heat back into space.
(https://u4d2z7k9.rocketcdn.me/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/GeoengineeringMethods-ClimateCentral_900_639_s_c1_c_c.jpg)
The long term knock on effects of such methods are unknown and rife with destructive potential too, so it is best to be wary.
The bottom line is we’ve already locked in a more difficult future, which is all the more reason to take drastic counter-measures now, even at an economical loss. It is difficult to estimate, but the consequences of putting short term benefits first will be far worse long-term loss.
References
Ricke, Katharine L., and Ken Caldeira. “Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission.” Environmental Research Letters 9.12 (2014): 124002.
Climate Central: Geoengineering methods.
https://earth.org/data_visualization/the-time-lag-of-climate-change/
Post by: Blade of Grass on April 27, 2021, 05:17:17 am
"If you LOVED me you would do what I want you to."
"If were gonna die anyway let's just spread LOVE to everyone."
"I LOVE heroin."
"I LOVE you so much I would do anything for you."
"I LOVE God and so His will be done."
"I LOVE to watch things fall apart and die. That's why I Love Doom."
IT seems like the word "Love" can be used in most any sentence and in any context.
Post by: RE on April 27, 2021, 04:50:26 am
When only love remains you can do whatever you want.
I have never been convinced that love actually does remain.
RE
Post by: K-Dog on April 26, 2021, 08:54:13 pm
Quote
I believe he drove a U-Haul to Vermont. I don't recall him ever complaining about using fossil fuels.
When only love remains you can do whatever you want.
Post by: Cam on April 26, 2021, 05:56:50 pm
It's always more complex than it seems at first glance. I'm finding this out about just about every hot-button issue of the day. Thanks for the explanation.
Post by: K-Dog on April 26, 2021, 04:47:27 pm
Thanks, I found it.
https://guymcpherson.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Planetary-Hospice.pdf
It starts with a quote.
Quote
“Truly the blessed gods have proclaimed a most beautiful secret:death comes not as a curse but as a blessing to men.”
- Ancient Greek Epitaph from Eleusis
Attributing this to the ancient Greeks makes this poison palatable. I don't deny it works. It makes this bullshit pass for wisdom. But lets be clear on this. This is 100% bullshit. There is nothing about that quote that is wise.
The quote epitomizes McPhersons' attitude and my objection to his charlatanism.
Post by: K-Dog on April 26, 2021, 03:55:24 pm
Oh yes the spoiler worked out great.
The only math McPherson knows is binary. If there is a problem we are all going to die. That is his attitude. He jumps to conclusions.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fimages-na.ssl-images-amazon.com%2Fimages%2FI%2F91EDI7zrnHL._SX466_.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
McPherson has been responsible for spreading a lot of misinformation about feedback. He wins blind obedient worship or he turns people off. Both responses do nothing to address the global heating problem in a responsible way.
I don’t like the tipping point concept as it does not describe the issue of feedback well enough. The fact is global heating causes changes which cause more heating, yes. An AMPLIFICATION which happens all the time in a continuous process and not just when a ‘point’ is reached. It also suggests a runaway situation as the only option. That is not correct. Possibilities are more complex. Non-linearity introduces a concept of tipping point; but overall the notion makes people passive, defeated, and then they stop thinking. They start ragging on everybody else and become ineffective. McPherson gives people the Dunning-Kruger disease. Realistically the earth is big which dilutes the effect of any single alleged tipping point. Properly appreciating that fact makes responsibility hard to dodge and not the other way around as it at first, seems.
If all the methane from the Arctic shelf were release at once we would be toast. But the world does not work that way. It can't happen like that and even if all the methane were released the Earth would still not go Venus. The human race would only be extinct and things would get back into an ice age cycle. In time there would be large critters again.
I don't recall McPherson walking to Belize. Apparently he has more than just love left after all. He has plane tickets.
People who profit from fear do not play on my team.
Post by: Cam on April 26, 2021, 03:30:45 pm
I'm curious what you mean when you say McPherson doesn't do the math. I haven't visited his site in over a year so I am behind on any new stuff. Also I hope I did the spoiler right!
Post by: K-Dog on April 26, 2021, 11:36:46 am
The Methane Bomb.
If you finish the math (which Guy McPherson never does). You find out that the Methane Bomb is going to aggravate the situation. Enough that we likely nuke each other into oblivion.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fdrkelley.info%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2F2001%2F11%2Fnuke_bomb__test_kelley.jpg&f=1&nofb=1)
But we will NOT go Venus. Where the ground is so hot, lakes of molten lead could exist.
Methane is going to super sauce global heating.
(https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.shopify.com%2Fs%2Ffiles%2F1%2F0043%2F9553%2F2386%2Fproducts%2FMega_Death_Hot_Sauce_1024x1024%402x.jpg%3Fv%3D1543646903&f=1&nofb=1)
Adding 1 gigatonne of methane to the atmosphere increases atmospheric concentration of methane by 370 parts per billion (ppb). Multiply that number by 100 for a guestimate of immediate effects comparable to CO2 emissions. (The 20-year GWP value of 86 is not immediate enough.) This multiplication gives 37,000 ppb which is the same as 37 parts per million (ppm)). This about equals 10 years worth of CO2 emissions at the present CO2 emission level. You can get data for a year of CO2 emissions increase in my right sidebar. I update it every month. It only goes up. One gigatonne of methane emissions is very bad news. To find the relationship I had to find out the volume of the Earths' atmosphere at Standard Temperature and Pressure (STP). That volume is 4.2 x 10^9 kilometer^3.
And if anybody quotes this for DOGS SAKE! USE A SPOILER TAG. like this: