Author Topic: Dieoff Errata (Read 87063 times)

Phil Potts · « **Reply #60 on:** November 13, 2021, 01:50:40 am »

Quote from: RE on November 13, 2021, 12:00:14 am

Here is a short list of countries that showed a decreasing population from the 2010 to the 2020 Census. There are others, but not important for this post on the topic.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/countries-with-declining-population

The issue I will address here is why you can't REALLY use a compound interest formula to figure dieoff (Liveoff? Birthoff? Depopulation?)

What is done here to generate the projections from 2020-2030 is to ASSUME that the ~1% annual population decrease will remain CONSTANT through the next decade. With only a 1% annual decrease, it would take quite a long time for the population of Homo Sap to dwindle down. Unfortunately, this percentage is unlikely to remain constant at 1%. Reason being all the headwinds we currently face in food production and distribution, all previously discussed.

We won't know the actual average rate of depopulation for the 2020-2030 time period until AFTER 2030. It won't be until after the 2040 census (if there is one) that you might be able to estimate how fast or slow the percentage is moving, up or down. Few of us here will still be alive in 2040.

All we can do right now is to look at the TRENDS.

Trending now on Twitter: More DEAD PEOPLE.

RE

Well if the chart I posted showing 45% increase in deaths for 15-18 yr oldsmobiles of both sexes and 65% increase for boysenberries only in UK in 2021 was passe because;

Cannabis use disorder may be linked to growing number of heart attacks in younger adults

At a time of increasing legalization of marijuana, new research shows a decade-long trend of more people under 50 with cannabis use disorder being hospitalized for a heart attack.

www.heart.org · heart.org

here is all cause mortality 2021 for canary in the coal mine Israel.

2nd last column is raw number (Remember it's only about 8m people). Last column is % above average (from 2015-2019). It only goes to week 36, late Sept.

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Digwe Must · « **Reply #61 on:** November 13, 2021, 07:55:19 am »

Quote from: Phil Potts on November 13, 2021, 01:50:40 am

Well if the chart I posted showing 45% increase in deaths for 15-18 yr oldsmobiles of both sexes and 65% increase for boysenberries only in UK in 2021 was passe because;

Cannabis use disorder may be linked to growing number of heart attacks in younger adults

At a time of increasing legalization of marijuana, new research shows a decade-long trend of more people under 50 with cannabis use disorder being hospitalized for a heart attack.

www.heart.org · heart.org

here is all cause mortality 2021 for canary in the coal mine Israel.

2nd last column is raw number (Remember it's only about 8m people). Last column is % above average (from 2015-2019). It only goes to week 36, late Sept.

Good post PP.

"Because the study is observational and didn't control for use of other substances such as tobacco, alcohol or coke, the research can't be used to show a direct cause. What's needed, Page said, is a large, long-term study that follows people over time to determine if cannabis use can be definitively linked to heart attacks, and if so, the impact of the frequency of use and how the cannabis is consumed."

Well, this is interesting, PP. When finally doing a definitive study they should also control for obesity, lack of exercise, lack of sunshine, fertility, crap food and addiction to electronics and social media. I've never known anyone who had a heart attack from pot. I have known some who drank themselves into a coronary and, of course, several people who died from coke related heart problems. But, overall I've known more people who die from heart trouble because they are fat for a long time and enjoy all the attendant health benefits.

This chart from Israel is frightening. Is this getting much attention from official circles? Jeez.

RE · « **Reply #62 on:** November 13, 2021, 08:23:36 am »

Quote from: Digwe Must on November 13, 2021, 07:55:19 am

This chart from Israel is frightening. Is this getting much attention from official circles? Jeez.

The Israeli chart is ugly, but even there you do not get a good global picture.

Where do you NOT get much in the way of stats from? The really poor countries. Do we know what is going on right now in the Congo or Nigeria in Africa? How about Iran or Turkey in the Middle East? What about Mongolia and Myanmar in Asia? What is happening in Columbia and Venezuela in South America?

There are whole swaths of the earth with large populations very little information escapes from. These are the populations most likely to dieoff first and biggest.

Like the litany of other species facing extinction though, these populations of Homo Sap simply don't matter. As long as YOUR lights are still on and you have heat and food to eat, who cares? What, me worry?

In the words of Martin Niemoller:

You should worry. They will come for you also.

RE

Phil Potts · « **Reply #63 on:** November 13, 2021, 01:30:47 pm »

Quote from: Digwe Must on November 13, 2021, 07:55:19 am

Quote from: Phil Potts on November 13, 2021, 01:50:40 am

Well if the chart I posted showing 45% increase in deaths for 15-18 yr oldsmobiles of both sexes and 65% increase for boysenberries only in UK in 2021 was passe because;

Cannabis use disorder may be linked to growing number of heart attacks in younger adults

At a time of increasing legalization of marijuana, new research shows a decade-long trend of more people under 50 with cannabis use disorder being hospitalized for a heart attack.

www.heart.org · heart.org

here is all cause mortality 2021 for canary in the coal mine Israel.

2nd last column is raw number (Remember it's only about 8m people). Last column is % above average (from 2015-2019). It only goes to week 36, late Sept.

Good post PP.

"Because the study is observational and didn't control for use of other substances such as tobacco, alcohol or coke, the research can't be used to show a direct cause. What's needed, Page said, is a large, long-term study that follows people over time to determine if cannabis use can be definitively linked to heart attacks, and if so, the impact of the frequency of use and how the cannabis is consumed."

Well, this is interesting, PP. When finally doing a definitive study they should also control for obesity, lack of exercise, lack of sunshine, fertility, crap food and addiction to electronics and social media. I've never known anyone who had a heart attack from pot. I have known some who drank themselves into a coronary and, of course, several people who died from coke related heart problems. But, overall I've known more people who die from heart trouble because they are fat for a long time and enjoy all the attendant health benefits.

This chart from Israel is frightening. Is this getting much attention from official circles? Jeez.

Thanks, there's an old saying, 'don't **** on me and tell me it's raining'.

You must have clicked on the link to the original study. I normally always do that to get at the available facts rather than just read the story mentioning it. This time I didn't, because I'm taking it from the perspective of the average person who wants it explained away. But yes, obviously the first thing to do is establish the group in question, healthy young men who are NOT otherwise at risk of heart attack, were both heavy pot users and had a heart attack. Of course if you find even one such in the 4% of heart attack in previous years you have not even began to explain say 6000 heart patients in the US in question. (Say conservative rough guess 20,000,000 young men age 12-29 in America divided by 5'000, as that's the figure we are getting from the regulators of several countries, 1 in 5000 young men in that age range).

The study only found overall 4.1% of heart attack patients also had cannabis use disorder. It does not say they know any of them were healthy young men in their teens and twenties. The headline and article content are non sequiters. That's the kind of nonsense twisting that pharma funded 'fact checkers' engage in all the time. Mentioning which groups, including 'men under 50' increased share of presenting cannabis use disorder', is unrelated to the question of whether any of them had a heart attack, obviously.
I was a pothead myself from 18-20, smoking with countless people, many who smoked every day. Ive known others since who smoke daily and never saw or heard about a heart attack in any one of them. A lot of them smoked a lot of cigarettes as well.

The first chart is from UK. I didn't make that, it's data from their ONS, office of national statistics.

The Israel data I pulled up precisely because it's not censored in a way they can easily hide, or think they don't need to. To your qn, I only know there's a lot of action there against the govt hiding causes of death and other things thats been exposed.

The booster was made available 31st July and Mandatory to keep green passport on 1st Oct. Maybe it's normal to be 6 weeks behind in updating, but it would certainly be interesting to know what happened from there.

Phil Potts · « **Reply #64 on:** November 13, 2021, 02:16:16 pm »

Quote from: RE on November 13, 2021, 08:23:36 am

Quote from: Digwe Must on November 13, 2021, 07:55:19 am
This chart from Israel is frightening. Is this getting much attention from official circles? Jeez.

The Israeli chart is ugly, but even there you do not get a good global picture.

Where do you NOT get much in the way of stats from? The really poor countries. Do we know what is going on right now in the Congo or Nigeria in Africa? How about Iran or Turkey in the Middle East? What about Mongolia and Myanmar in Asia? What is happening in Columbia and Venezuela in South America?

There are whole swaths of the earth with large populations very little information escapes from. These are the populations most likely to dieoff first and biggest.

Like the litany of other species facing extinction though, these populations of Homo Sap simply don't matter. As long as YOUR lights are still on and you have heat and food to eat, who cares? What, me worry?

In the words of Martin Niemoller:

You should worry. They will come for you also.

RE

I'm focussing on explanation for this forecast:

https://nobulart.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Deagel-2025-Forecast-by-Country.pdf

It's on the horizon

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Digwe Must · « **Reply #65 on:** November 13, 2021, 08:19:35 pm »

Quote from: Phil Potts on November 13, 2021, 02:16:16 pm

I'm focussing on explanation for this forecast:

https://nobulart.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Deagel-2025-Forecast-by-Country.pdf

It's on the horizon

Okay. So, at first I thought this was just nuts. I looked up this organization and have now come to a WTF is this frame of mind. They seem to have a great many assessments of ordinance and weaponry capacity and sales that others assess as accurate. Who are these guys? Why has some of their stuff been taken down? I see other sites that contend that Deagel has updated their forecast regarding nuclear war. Others say this forecast is covid related and that the countries with vac manufacturing will suffer worst. Some are comparing this outfit to Stratfor. Of course some are saying this is CIA bs. What do you make of all this?

The Israeli chart is ugly, but even there you do not get a good global picture.

Where do you NOT get much in the way of stats from? The really poor countries. Do we know what is going on right now in the Congo or Nigeria in Africa? How about Iran or Turkey in the Middle East? What about Mongolia and Myanmar in Asia? What is happening in Columbia and Venezuela in South America?

There are whole swaths of the earth with large populations very little information escapes from. These are the populations most likely to dieoff first and biggest.

And the information that does come out usually benefits an agenda that may not be conducive to revealing truth. And I think you are correct about a collective indifference on the part of the comfortable.

When Covid first started to spread there was much speculation that central Africa would be devastated. They have bad general health and poor healthcare. However, as it turned out, so many people in those countries have parasitic disease that a tremendous percentage of the population takes Ivermectin. Covid did not ravage these countries.

As food becomes more expensive (even if that were the only stressor) I expect the general health of the world's human population to decline. Given all the other factors, here and approaching, the decline will accelerate. Seneca cliff.

But I have no clue what the forecast Phil Potts posted is about. I'd like to know what it is based on. Audacious. This gets to the poll question you asked about human pop in 2030.

K-Dog · « **Reply #66 on:** November 13, 2021, 09:29:07 pm »

Quote

I was a pothead myself from 18-20, smoking with countless people, many who smoked every day. Ive known others since who smoke daily and never saw or heard about a heart attack in any one of them. A lot of them smoked a lot of cigarettes as well.

Eyes zam a pothead 20-66. A pot shop I go to is named 'Have a Heart'. My ticker seems OK. RE can vouch for the fact that I am a stoner.

Well sort of, after so many years it hits me about as hard as a cup of coffee. And since I don't drink alcohol, in a strange way my ass is about as pure as the driven snow. I quit drinking early in my life. I liked it too much and I knew it was not good for people. I made a decision.

K-Dog · « **Reply #67 on:** November 13, 2021, 09:49:35 pm »

Quote from: RE on November 13, 2021, 12:05:49 am

Trending now on Twitter: Celibacy

The latest sex and dating trend? Celibacy.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/life/health-wellness/2021/11/12/celibacy-emerging-dating-and-wellness-trend-experts-weigh-in/6373269001/?gnt-cfr=1

RE

I read it. I think it sucks. A man has to control his passions. No question about that. A man does not go where he is not wanted. But pretending I don't want anything? Puck that.

I'll put out the idea that all the people who claim celibacy enlightens are full of ****. Personally it makes me lonely and crazy. They is no pathway that could lead to enlightenment and if you think so try a bed of nails.

Phil Potts · « **Reply #68 on:** November 14, 2021, 02:16:05 pm »

Quote from: Digwe Must on November 13, 2021, 08:19:35 pm

Quote from: Phil Potts on November 13, 2021, 02:16:16 pm

I'm focussing on explanation for this forecast:

https://nobulart.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Deagel-2025-Forecast-by-Country.pdf

It's on the horizon

Okay. So, at first I thought this was just nuts. I looked up this organization and have now come to a WTF is this frame of mind. They seem to have a great many assessments of ordinance and weaponry capacity and sales that others assess as accurate. Who are these guys? Why has some of their stuff been taken down? I see other sites that contend that Deagel has updated their forecast regarding nuclear war. Others say this forecast is covid related and that the countries with vac manufacturing will suffer worst. Some are comparing this outfit to Stratfor. Of course some are saying this is CIA bs. What do you make of all this?

They certainly seem legit to me. Nobody can independently compile the sort of reporting and analysis they are doing without it being paid for by the MIC.

That's released 2017, the sort of thing they deal with in procurements and orders for equipment can tell them at that time. Assuming these are not made up, they can be looked up and verified if anyone wants to take the time and effort.
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When that forecast caught attention and created some stir in these type of circles, Deagel said it would be net migration out of the western world as the main cause of the population losses. They later removed it altogether. There's definitely good reason to emigrate now for anyone who can and something like 55'000 families have left here already this year. It's not easy, unless you have plenty of money or are a citizen somewhere else.

I can't answer what the reason or reasons are for it, but when I see things that fit it, it fills the picture at least in part. For a few years the shutting down of dairy farms and water rights of farmers here in Oz when the rivers are full not empty, only made sense if there was going to be a lot less people. I saw something similar just recently in the US:

Northeast Organic Dairy Farmers May Get Squeezed Out of Business - Modern Farmer

The affected organic dairy farms are taking a major hit after Danone, which owns Horizon Organic, terminated 89 contracts.

Modern Farmer · modernfarmer.com

As you know, and the map in the previous post shows, covid is rising in waves in the most vaxd places. Maybe this is because of it being obsolete and not updated while the virus mutates. Then there's definitely some impact on miscarriages going on, infertility is an open question, that's going to contribute to population decline.

But realistically, none of those; covid at its current rate, emigration, and drop in births of even 50% would account for more than maybe 5-10% drop in population in 3 yrs. It's hard to imagine the empty shelves and high prices problem going to the point of starvation. What it certainly can do is lower a lot of peoples health, making them more susceptible. If it was a nuke strike it's only one way, as you see Russia and China are not included in the major population reductions. You would think it out of the question that NATO would not strike back though. Oz has no nukes to strike back, but recently china explicitly said we are now a nuke target. That by dropping the submarine contract from France, for nuke subs from the US.

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Digwe Must · « **Reply #69 on:** November 15, 2021, 10:02:23 am »

Quote from: Phil Potts on November 14, 2021, 02:16:05 pm

Quote from: Digwe Must on November 13, 2021, 08:19:35 pm
Quote from: Phil Potts on November 13, 2021, 02:16:16 pm

I'm focussing on explanation for this forecast:

https://nobulart.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/Deagel-2025-Forecast-by-Country.pdf

It's on the horizon

If it was a nuke strike it's only one way, as you see Russia and China are not included in the major population reductions. You would think it out of the question that NATO would not strike back though. Oz has no nukes to strike back, but recently china explicitly said we are now a nuke target. That by dropping the submarine contract from France, for nuke subs from the US.

NATO warns Russia over Ukraine military build-up
BRUSSELS, Nov 15 (Reuters) - NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned Russia on Monday that the western military alliance was standing by Ukraine amid a large and unusual concentration of Russian troops on Ukraine's borders.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-warns-russia-over-ukraine-military-build-up-2021-11-15/

Ukraine: NATO alarmed by Russian troop buildup on border

Ukraine: NATO alarmed by Russian troop buildup on border

dw.com

Ukraine has estimated that as many 100,000 Russian troops are present in the border area, which Stoltenberg called "dangerous."

"We see an unusual concentration of troops, and we know that Russia has been willing to use these types of military capabilities before to conduct aggressive actions against Ukraine," the NATO chief said.

CIA director dispatched to Moscow to warn Russia over troop buildup near Ukraine

"... Tensions between Ukraine and Russia have also been exacerbated in recent weeks by a deepening Ukrainian energy crisis that Kiev believes Moscow has purposefully provoked.
"The buildup, coupled with the energy blackmail, does suggest a more aggressive Russian posture," an adviser to Zelensky told CNN.

CIA director dispatched to Moscow to warn Russia over troop buildup near Ukraine | CNN Politics

President Joe Biden dispatched CIA Director Bill Burns to Moscow earlier this week to warn the Kremlin that the US is watching its buildup of troops near Ukraineâ€™s border closely, and to attempt ...

CNN · cnn.com

Satellite images show new Russian military buildup near Ukraine

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/11/01/satellite-russia-ukraine-military-518337

Digwe Must · « **Reply #70 on:** November 15, 2021, 12:35:41 pm »

I should have included this.

Access Denied

telegraph.co.uk

Russia destroys satellite in ASAT test

Russia destroys satellite in ASAT test

SpaceNews · spacenews.com

LAS VEGAS — A Russian satellite broke up in low Earth orbit in a deliberate test of a Russian antisatellite device that created thousands of pieces of debris.

The satellite, Cosmos-1408, appears to have broken up late Nov. 14 or early Nov. 15 Eastern time, based on commercial and government tracking data. The satellite, weighing about 2,000 kilograms, was launched in 1982 and, now defunct, was last tracked in an orbit about 485 kilometers high.

State Department spokesman Ned Price confirmed the satellite was destroyed by an ASAT. “The Russian Federation recklessly conducted a destructive satellite test of a direct-ascent antisatellite missile against one of its own satellites,” he said at a Nov. 15 State Department briefing. “The test has so far generated over 1,500 pieces of trackable orbital debris and hundreds of thousands of pieces of smaller orbital debris that now threaten the interests of all nations.”

He added that the test “will significantly increase the risk to astronauts and cosmonauts on the International Space Station, as well as to other human spaceflight activities.”

monsta666 · « **Reply #71 on:** November 15, 2021, 04:25:35 pm »

Yes he was dead wrong about that prediction. Lol But on a more serious note just because the timing was wrong doesn't mean the theory is false. Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Not sure that was the exact phrase but you get what I mean.

In any case making the right call is the easy bit but getting the timing right is exceedingly difficult. A fools game if I am being honest. I do know a die off will happen but when it happens and on what trajectory is still an open question. I do go for a quick collapse as the issues of peak oil, financial contagion and global warming all have a certain synergy with one another. For example if energy prices get too high our economies will breakdown reducing our ability to mitigate climate change or acquire other critical communities such as water, food and soil replenishment through fertilisers.

How are we going to call which limiting factor strikes first and when? Hard to say and it will be even tricker to determine how that limiting factor will impact other vital systems. But my feeling is a tipping point will come and we will experience a series of cascading failures that will bring everything down fairly rapidly. The longer things drag on the more dramatic the collapse will be for each system will closer to its breaking point. That is my theory any way... But who knows, I could be wrong maybe we will see some extraordinary events that postpone the day of judgement on some level or cushion the blow on some level. We got some very clever minds out there and they do say a crisis is the mother of innovation and radical ideas.

monsta666 · « **Reply #72 on:** November 17, 2021, 03:29:13 pm »

So you don't agree with my views BuddyJ, fair enough. I will ask you to explain your position. Do you think an economy that must grow to infinity is sustainable? What is your take on that? If it can't grow year on year then what happens next? Please give me your opinion on how you think it pans out.

RE · « **Reply #73 on:** November 17, 2021, 06:41:20 pm »

There are worse ways to die. OD is relatively painless.

RE

RE · « **Reply #74 on:** November 19, 2021, 12:18:05 am »

The traditionally Xenophobic Japanese are finally capitulating to their population dieoff and are going to import more slaves to keep their society running.

In major shift, Japan looks to allow more foreign workers to stay indefinitely

In major shift, Japan looks to allow more foreign workers to stay indefinitely

Under the change,

The Japan Times · japantimes.co.jp

RE

Global Collapse

News:

Author Topic: Dieoff Errata (Read 87063 times)

Phil Potts

Re: Depopulation Trends

Digwe Must

Re: Dieoff Errata

RE

Re: Dieoff Errata

Phil Potts

Re: Dieoff Errata

Phil Potts

Re: Dieoff Errata

Digwe Must

Re: Dieoff Errata

K-Dog

Re: Dieoff Errata

K-Dog

Re: It's not a Dieoff, it's a Sexoff

Phil Potts

Re: Dieoff Errata

Digwe Must

Re: Dieoff Errata

Digwe Must

Re: Dieoff Errata

monsta666

Re: Dieoff Errata

monsta666

Re: Dieoff Errata

RE

Overdose deaths hit record high during pandemic

RE

In major shift, Japan looks to allow more foreign workers to stay indefinitely